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Could TerraLuna restore TerraUSD PEG with $Hi folks, The #Terra protocol is doing well and needs no further bailouts 1-2-3 or whatever planned by Do Kwon. Now we have to let the market regulate itself naturally. Indeed, the spectacular crash of the past week was painful for everyone. Nevertheless, I think it is part of algorithmic phases of the Terra protocol itself. The protocol grows by successive phases of expansion and contraction. We have simply witnessed a phase of brutal contraction. This phase could have been amplified by an hypothetical attack but no one knows right now. Now, we have to wait for the market to do its job of natural regulator. Namely, slowly raise the #TerraLuna $LUNA to the price of $0.0017 per unit. At that time, the #TerraUSD $UST will naturally PEG with the US dollar. It’s only a matter of weeks. In fact, the regulator is already playing its role. Once the market has played its role of natural regulator and therefore the TerraUSD UST will again be worth 1 US dollar thanks to its symmetry with the LUNA supply, we can begin the expansion phase of the Terra protocol. During this expansion phase, we will see the TerraUSD UST supply increase and the #LUNA supply decrease. Once the PEG is reached, the decrease/increase of LUNA/UST will begin at approximately 612 LUNA for 1 UST until reaching in a more or less distant future the value of 1:1 or even more depending on the pace of adoption. So, let the market regulate itself and digest this contraction naturally instead of trying to manipulate it with more or less hazy hypothetical rescue plans. This is the price to pay for a decentralized currency. Moreover, we are not safe in a distant future from a new contraction of the protocol which will resorb itself to leave after a few days or weeks a new phase of expansion. Therefore, this contraction could be beneficial for all #cryptocurrency markets since it will bring a significant amount of fresh UST to the market when people will redeem their LUNA for UST once the PEG restore. And we know that cryptocurrency markets are in desperate need of fresh liquidities. So, yes, I'm long. And the impressive volume of Terra Luna exchanged speaks by itself. Have a nice day
LLong
by HenriqueV
8
How to use different types of Fibonacci in TradingViewWave Relationships and their relation by Fibonacci Ratios are among the most helpful tools for target prediction. There are different types of Fibonacci and different tools with different names in different software packages. This may make users somehow confused . Here, we try to shed some light on various mostly used Fibonacci types and explain their usage for target prediction. Also we explain their related tool in TradingView and their way of implementations. As shown on the chart, there are four main types of Fibonacci : 1- Internal Retracement 2. External Retracement (Extension) 3. Expansion 4. Projection Before going through details, it is worth to mention that knowing wave relationships is a key to implement Fibonacci tools accurately. Different types of wave relationships is beyond the scope of this publication. Here, for simplification, we show most simple type of wave cycle which is ascending complete cycle with one 5 leg up impulse and one abc form of correction . Also, we try to explain more typical Fibonacci Ratios for target prediction and skip less often ones. 1. Internal Retracement: This is simply for calculation of the amount of correction in the main trend. It means we can predict where a counter trend correction may end. As shown on the chart, it can be used for target prediction of wave 2 and 4 in an up trend and also wave B in a down trend. It can also be used for calculation of end of wave C which is the end of correction of whole up going wave. Green arrows on the picture show the direction of using this tool which is "Fib Reracement" in TradinView. For example, we put first point at the start of wave 1 and second point at the end of this wave for obtaining possible targets for wave 2 and so on. Wave 2 can end at 0.382, 0.5, 0.618 and 0.786 Fibonacci Retracement levels of wave 1. Fibonacci levels at which wave 2 ends can send us a signal about the amount of next waves. This is again beyond the scope of this publication. Wave 4 can typically end at 0.382 or 0.5 Retracement of wave 3. Less and more amount of Retracements are also possible, but those make wave relations more complicated and does not match with our simple shown example. Wave B typically corrects 0.382 , 0.5 and 0.618 of wave A in a simple zigzag correction. More Retracements signals for more complicated corrections e.g a flat correction. Wave C Retracement levels are similar to wave 2 in shown wave cycle since it is end of a larger degree wave 2. 2. External Retracement: This Fibonacci which is also called " Extension" can be used for calculation of end of wave 3 or 5 in an up trend and end of wave C ( which is end of whole correction) in a down trend. We have same tool as internal retracement in TradingView however ,unlike internal Retracement, an extension should be drawn from a high to a low in an up trend and vice versa as shown by green arrows on the related figure. Wave 3 Fibonacci Ratios by extension depends on the amount of wave 2 correction. For example, 1.618 or 2.618 extension of wave 2 can be the target for wave 3. Robert. C. Miner has proposed a very useful table for targets using external retracement. Wave 5 typical targets are 1.272, 1.414 and 1.618 extensions of wave 4. This ratios are also the same for calculation of end of wave C. 3. Expansion: Based on my experience, Fibo expansion is most useful when we have over extended waves for example over extended wave 3. In this case , 1.618 or even 2.618 Fibo levels can be the typical targets. Related tool in TradingView is Trend-Based Fib Extension. Please note that this tool in TradingView is a three point Fibonacci while expansion is two point Fibonacci tool. Therefore, Implementing this tool for obtaining Expansion levels is a little tricky. For example, for calculation of wave 3 we should put first point at the start of wave 1 and double click on end of wave 1. There are also more details in implementing Fibo expansion for example we have different types of Fibo expansion. We can skip details here to keep this publication as simple as possible. 4. Projection: This is the only 3 points Fibonacci that we have. Some software packages call this Fibonacci as Expansion !!. Its related tool in TradingView is Trend-Based Fibo Extension. It is a very useful tool for calculation of end of wave 3, 5 and C. Again green arrows show how to use this tool . For example, For wave 3 target calculation we set first point at the start of wave 1, second point at end of wave 1 and third point at the end of wave 2 or start of wave 3. 1.618 and 2.618 Fibo levels are typical for end of an extended wave 3 when using Fibo projection. 100 % Projection of wave 1 from low of wave 4 is a typical one for end of wave 5 target. Also 0.382 or 0.618 projection of wave 1-3 from low of wave 4 is a helpful ratio for wave 5 target calculation. For a wave C, most common projection is 100 % of wave A from top of wave B. How to make a Potential Reversal Zone ( PRZ) : We can make our potential reversal zone stronger by combining all proposed tools . Take another look at the figures. What can we see? yes. We know four tools now for calculation of end of wave C. Suppose how strong a possible buy zone can be when 4 different tools suggest it as potential reversal target ! Hope this to be helpful. Please do not hesitate to ask questions if you feel need to ask. Good luck every one.
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by SaeedSajedi
3
Will Ascending Triangle fail soon?#EURUSD #FX #4H #Tommy - Here’s EURUSD 4hr chart and I have made an assumption that the bearish wave starting from around 1.23470 is an impulsive wave cycle in Elliott wave perspective. - It’s currently testing bottom of the orange ascending triangle with top located around 1.11240 and this very wave structure also can be expressed with an orange upward parallel channel. - At the same time, purple short-term downward trendline keeps showing strong rejections. I will be bearish if bottom of the ascending triangle breaks below first. - On the other hand, I will be bullish if purple trendline breaks above and even more bullish when it successfully breaks the top of the ascending triangle above. - If EURUSD successfully breaks ascending triangle above, a considerable resistance area to enter short position is at 1.13100~1.13600. - This resistance is a confluent zone of blue trendline, top of black channel, top of the orange channel, 0.786 retracement level, HVP pivot level, and inner trendline and is valid only until April 9th. - If I were to design a short trading setup, it would be as below. Short (Valid until 04/09) EP: 1.13100 SL: 1.13970 (-870 PIPS) TP1: 1.11790 (+1310 PIPS) -> RR: 1.51 TP2: 1.10260 (+2840 PIPS) -> RR: 3.26
by Tommy_Trader
DERO outlookHere we can see an ascending wedge and a head and shoulders pattern. At this moment we can also see that the price action is currently retesting the parallel channel and wedge. All options in this charts are still valid while it still can go both ways. If the parallel channel gets broken, close above and an impulsive move up, off course retrace lvls. are invalidated. If we will see a move down to the retrace lvls, the projection, expansion and extension lvls. for exiting probably will need some slight adjusting. Either way... no decisive moves as of yet. A little explanation on the projection lvls. downwards. A textbook head and shoulders downwards projection would be from head to neckline, now I have seen numerous variations on them, for example the same distance from head to neckline taken from the top right shoulder downwards. In some instances the length would be cut in half due to choppy price action and wicks. 1 to 3 are the more realistic buy-ins and 4 to 7 are the more highly likely lvls.! However this will pan out, we have several options to tackle this one, so choose one or two and be covered either way ;) Happy trading.
DLong
by rarekind
$IDEXPrice have been moving in a slightly bearish channel since March, here it formed an ABCD pattern and broke out. Price then tested a bearish trendline and fell back into the channel again. On the weekly, price have been moving in a massive flag formation with a minimum target at 4.77 dollars if it breaks out bullish. This flag formation has just been broken to the upside and could be setting up for an uptrend to the moon. From July 14 to July 21 price contracted and lacked liquidity, afterwards it started expanding and tested support from lower breakout line at 2.07 dollars. This push down most likely came from smart money trying to get the stock at the lowest price, without breaking out the price bearish. Price is still in the expansion phase but with strength from the flag formation it could be testing the upper breakout line at 2.77 dollars. If the stock can break this line, it will go into the breakout phase and we could potentially see some big moves to the upside.
ILong
by Hami_Invest
Is this an uptrend or not?The combination of the two tools Fibonacci Expansion and Retracement could indicate some important price levels for understanding the mood of the exchange rate. The most important dilemma that arises from this approach is if the last downward movement is considered as a correction of the main trend. Looking at the chart, it seems that Friday's close was marginally below the price level of FR 23.6. It may take some time for the downtrend to be finally confirmed and the exchange rate to return to an uptrend. An entry point higher than the FR 50.0 price level would be a safe choice. Then, it seems that some confluence levels emerge which can also be considered as target prices. As shown in the chart these are 0,7315 and 0,7437.
by UnknownUnicorn214400
Super set of oscillators by Thomas DeMark!Dear friends! I continue describing oscillators developed by Thomas DeMark. In my previous articles, I have already explained such tools as TD REI and TD POQ (look here ). In this post I’ll continue describing technical tools developed by Thomas DeMark. TD DeMarker I I’d like to start with the TD DeMarker I indicator. It is similar to TD REI and aims to distinguish between trend and non-trend movements in the market, and then, having determined the trend, it searches for reversal points depending on how the indicator reacts to oversold and overbought levels. Its calculation technique is very simple. TD DeMarker I compares the current and the previous trading day’s highs according to the following algorithm: 1. Calculate the TD DeMarker I numerator • If the current bar’s high is higher or equal to the previous bar’s high, the difference is calculated and added to the numerator. • If the current bar’s high is lower than the previous day’s high, then zero value is assigned to that bar. Next values of the difference between the highs for each bar are added to the numerator over a series of 13 consecutive bars. • If the current bar’s low is equal or less than the previous price bar’s low, then the difference between the previous day’s low and the current low are the numerator. • If the low of the current bar’s is greater, a zero value is assigned to the nominator at this bar. The next values of the difference between the lows for each bar are added to the numerator over 13 consecutive bars. 2. Calculate the denominator of TD DeMarker I equation • You add the value in the denominator to the sum of the differences between the lows in the same period. 3. Calculate TD DeMarker I = divide the numerator by the denominator. • As a result, we get a value that will move in the range from zero to 100 in the form of a fluctuating 13-period line. At the same time, the overbought zone will be above 60, and the oversold zone will be below 40. Now, let’s find out how this indicator’s signals are interpreted A buy signal should satisfy the following conditions: 1. DeMarker I must not be below 40 for more than 13 bars 2. The bar’s close at the signal level should be lower than the low of one or two bars ago 3. The bar’s close at the signal level must be lower than the previous bar’s open or close. 4. The open of the next bar following the assumed reversal bar must be less than or equal to the close of any of the two previous bars. 5. The asset must be trading higher than at least one of the two previous closes. As an example, I’ll take the BTCUSD market situation that has recently occurred. It is clear from the above chart that the BTCUSD was in the overbought zone (above 60) from the start till the end of May. Afterwards, the price rolled down below 40 and the indicator entered the oversold zone. Immediately after that, we look for a point where the bar features the low before price exits the oversold zone. Finally, when the price went beyond the oversold zone on June 13, we can easily identify the low in the period when the ticker had been below 40, according to TD DeMarker I. Now, we can analyze the continuation pattern based on the above conditions. 1. The DeMarker I indicator was below the level of 40 for not more than 13 bars - in our case it was only 5 days; 2. The bar’s close under the red arrow is lower than the previous bar’s low (blue dots are above than the red dotted line). 3. The close of the bar below the arrow is lower than the previous bar’s open and close (blue dots are far lower than the previous bar). 4. The next bar’s open following the reversal bar is equal to the previous bar’s close (there are no gaps). 5. The asset is trading higher than the previous bars’ close levels. Furthermore, when the indicator exited the overbought zone, the price had been already trading above all the previous bars’ close levels. Therefore, one could have safely entered a buy trade at the current level when the new bar of June 14 opened (I marked it with a red cross in the chart). As we already know, this signal reached the target and provided the opportunity to gain on the BTCUSD movement up to the high at 14 000 USD. I should note that when a buy signal is not confirmed, that is, the five conditions above are not met, there is still a signal, but it is a sell signal. Although such a sell signal cannot be as strong, it can be a confirmation for bearish signals of other indicators. There is a good example in the chart above. It displays bitcoin’s all-time high at 20 000 USD. After the DeMarker I had been in the overbought zone for quite a long time, it moved into the oversold zone, and so, we start counting and see how long the price will be in this zone. Finally, there is the following situation: 1. DeMarker I was not below the level of 40 for more than 13 bars, in this case it was 12. So, this condition is satisfied. 2. The close of the bar under the red arrow is lower than the previous bar’s low (blue dotetd line is below the red dotted line). This condition is also satisfied 3. The close of the bar under the arrow is lower than the previous bar’s open and close. This condition is also met. 4. The open of the bar following the reversal bar is equal the close of the previous bar (there are no gaps). This condition also confirms the bullish scenario. 5. The asset is trading above the previous close levels. This condition is not met. It is clear from the above chart the bar following the oversold zone (marked with a red arrow) went down lower than the close levels of the previous two bars, and, moreover, it was trading below the close level of the two bars preceding the reversal bar. Therefore, the last condition is not satisfied, and so, we have the reasons to assume that there is a real reversal of the bullish trend. Now, let us study the sell signals. The following conditions must be met: 1. A sell signal should meet the following conditions: 2. The indicator must be above level 60 for at least six bars. 3. The signal bar’s close must be above the previous bar’s open and close. 4. The open of the bar following the signal must be equal or higher than the close of any of the two previous bars. 5. The asset must be trading below one of the previous close levels. As soon as all these conditions are satisfied, it can be interpreted as a sell signal. TD DeMarker II The above chart presents an example of the Bitcoin bullish trend reversal in December 2017, after which there started a long-tern bearish trend. Let us analyze this situation as a bearish signal. When the bar marked with a red cross was forming, the DeMarker I indicator leaves the overbought zone and goes below level 60. Therefore, it is the case for looking for a sell signal within the zone, where the price was above level 60 (the zone is highlighted with green in the chart). The red arrow highlights the bar that closed higher than the highs of the previous two bars, and so, higher than the previous bar’s open and close (in the chart, it is marked by the purple dotted line on December 17 that is above the green line). The next bar, following the one with the red arrow, also meet the condition and opens above the close of the second-last bar. Finally, there is the trend reversal signal and the opportunity to take the profit on December 20 (it is the bar marked with the red cross in the chart). However, this indicator, like other technical tools, may send false signals. To filter the entry signal, it is recommended to apply TD DeMarker II as a supplementary tool. TD DeMarker II Unlike the TD REI and TD DeMarker I, which compare the price highs and lows with those of one bar ago, TD DeMarker II analyzes a number of price ratios to measure the pressure of buyers and sellers. Let us study the calculation formula of the TD DeMarker II. Calculate the numerator: 1. Calculate the difference between the current bar’s high and the previous bar’s close. 2. Add the result to the difference between the current bar’s close and its low. 3. Distract the previous value from the current bar’s high 4. Sum up all the values. If there is negative result, assign a zero value to it. Calculate the denominator: 1. Add the difference between the current bar’s low and the previous bar’s close to the numerator. 2. Add the result to the difference between the current bar’s high and its close (this value defines the selling pressure). The buy and sell signals of this indicator work under the same conditions as for the TD DeMarker I, so, I won’t enumerate them again. I have already many times mentioned that, if multiple buy or sell signals are at the same place, the signal becomes much stronger. As it is clear from the above chart, a buy signal sent by the TD DeMarker II (green cross) matches to the one sent by the TD DeMarker I (red cross), which in combination confirms the sell signal and enhances it. TD Pressure DeMark suggests that the price action is directly affected by the supply/demand ratio. As the price change is often preceded by a change in trading volume, DeMark suggests measuring the speed of changing in the trading volume along with the speed of price changes. In addition, according to DeMark, these parameters are more important for the current bar, rather than for the complete bars. In general, these values determine the buying pressure on the market, which is calculated by subtracting the current bar’s open from the its close and dividing the result by the price range of this bar. The result is multiplied by the trading volume of the current period and is added as a progressive total to the indicator value. Finally, we have an indicator that shows buying pressure. For example, if the bar’s open is equal to its low, and the bar’s close is equal to its high, then the trading volume will be on side of buyers, and the indicator will display a strong rise of buying pressure. And vice versa, if the bar’s open and close coincide, even a greater trading volume won’t affect the indicator, as the market will be balanced, and the bulls’ power will be roughly equal to that of bears. The indicator’s band moves from 0 to 100%, and the overbought and oversold zones, like for the indicators, described above, are the zones above 60 and below 40 respectively. The buy and sell signals sent by this indicator are interpreted in the same way as those sent by TD DeMarker I and II. Besides, this indicator is also a confirming one, and when it coincides with other signals, it confirms the indicated direction. You see in the above chart that the signal sent by the TD pressure (yellow cross) matches to the signals sent by the DeMarker I and the DeMarker II (red and green crosses respectively), which means that the sell signal is true. TD Rate of change (TD ROC) TD ROC is an integral component of TD Alignment but can also be used in isolation as an overbought/oversold indicator. It is thought to be quite simple and is determined by dividing the close of the current price bar by the close of twelve price bars earlier. Although it is pretty simple, this indicator is quite efficient. According to Thomas DeMark, the bears’ zone is below 97.5. Bulls zone is above 102.5. Therefore, when the indicator is in a narrow band between 97.5 and 102.5 the market is in balance. So, this indicator helps you identify the market sentiment at any moment. But this is not its primary advantage. You can employ this indicator in technical analysis and draw the common patterns and trend lines. The chart above shows how a triangle worked out. A strong momentum, marked with a red arrow, draws the indicator beyond the triangle, which means that the market lost balance and started moving in the bullish trend. Next, after the triangle was broken out and the bullish trend started, we build trend lines according to the common rules; in the bullish trend, the trend is outlined along the support line (red line), in the bearish trend -along the resistance lines (green line). It is clear from the chart above that the breakout of these lines and entering the bear zone send a sell signal (red cross) in early July. Afterwards, we build the trend line along the resistance levels sand expect until the price breaks it through and enter bullish zone. Finally, in the mid-July, there is such a buy signal, marked with green cross in the chart. Next, there is a strong growth in the bullish trend that is marked with the red trend line. The breakout of this line sends a signal to take profit, and entering bearish zone again signals the trend weakness. As you see from the chart above, the indicator broke through the green trendline in late July but it hasn’t entered the bullish zone, and so, there has been no buy signal so far. Another signal that really matters when using this indicator is the signal of convergence and divergence. These signals are rarely sent by this indicator, but they are usually quite accurate, especially in long-term timeframes. There is a clear divergence in the above chart. When the price is growing, the indicator is declining, which signals the trend exhaustion. In early July, the price couldn’t break through the previous high, thus confirming the direction of the indicator (marked with a circle). Finally, as I have already said, the indicator went down below the trend line, which sends a strong sell signal; however, as you know, the bearish correction didn’t work out, so, for an accurate forecast, it important to employ all the DeMark's tolls together. TD Alignment Just for this purpose, to combine all the tools together, the TD Alignment indicator was developed. TD Alignment is a composite indicator that combines the following five TD oscillators to measure buying and selling pressure: 1. TD DeMarker I 2. TD DeMarker II 3. TD Pressure 4. TD Rate of Change 5. TD Range expansion Index (this indicator is described here) Each of these indicators has its own distinct method of measuring overbought/oversold conditions. TD Alignment is based on the values of all the above indicators according to the principle, where the final result is determined of the number of indicators in an oversold condition, overbought and equilibrium. In addition, to calculate the TD Alignment, there were defined the following overbought/oversold zones: Overbought/Oversold 1. TD DeMarker I - 60/40 2. TD DeMarker II - 60/40 3. TD Pressure - 82/12 4. TD Rate of Change - 101/99 5. TD Range expansion Index - 40/-40 Therefore, when the TD DeMarker enters the oversold zone, 1 is added to the total result. If the indicator enters the equilibrium zone, between 60 -40, a zero value is assigned, if it is below 40, 1 is subtracted from the total value. Based on the same principle, all the indicators are calculated, and finally, there is the TD Alignment value that is moving between -5 and +5. -5 is reached when all the indicators are in the oversold zone, and +5 is associated with the case when all the indicators are in the overbought zone. Unfortunately, I failed to find the TD Alignment in free access, so I had to write everything on my own. I must admit there may be errors in calculations, nonetheless, it performs quite well during testing. As you see, the main benefit of this indicator is showing the cases when the market reaches the extremes of the overbought/oversold zones. In the above chart, I highlighted these levels from +4 to +5 and from -4 to -5. When the indicator reaches this zone, it is obvious that the price will start correction soon and so you should take a corresponding decision on either taking profit or entering a trade. In addition, the indicator shows the market sentiment currently dominating; if it is above zero, bullish sentiment is dominating, if it is below zero, the market is bearish. Buy or sell signal here must meet the same 5 conditions, described for TD DeMarker at the beginning of the article, the only difference is that you need to count the number if bars above or below zero. Based on my own experience, I would add one more condition, the sixth one, to be met for entering a buy or a sell trade. A buy/sell signal is confirmed when the TD Alignment indicator breaks through zero level (red dots) only provided that the indicator hit the overbought/oversold zone before. In the above chart, I tried to illustrate that, after the indicator hits green or red zone, i.e. overbought or oversold zone, the sixth condition is satisfied. So, when the indicator breaks through or rebounds from the zero level, there is a buy or a sell signal (according to the market sentiment, I marked the entry signals with green and red arrows). A red thumb down marks the levels where the market doesn’t reach the zones indicated above, and so, the condition is not met and the buy or sell signal is false; I marked false signal with the red crosses in the chart. However, not everything is that perfect, because this indicator is rather sensitive and so, it sends quite many false signals. That is why, I do not recommend employing this indicator alone, rather, it should be used together with other DeMark's tools so that it will be more efficient. I will describe other useful DeMark's indicators and explain how to apply them to BTCUSD trading in my next articles. Subscribe not to miss the continuation! I wish you good luck and good profits!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by Hypov
3