UPDATE: Bitcoin, Build em' up and Break em' down (Elliott Wave)EDIT 2: This chart was the obvious winner... Wave 2 are rarely triangles.
This is the alternate count that I am currently favoring over the last chart I published ().
Looking at the 3H and above there is a pretty big bullish divergence all the way up to the 12H. My original thinking, that I published in my other chart, was that since wave v (on the current chart) has so much momentum compared to wave iii, that wave v was actually the first wave of an extension. At this time it appears that it is actually a leading diagonal like the current chart shows, and that this is in-fact an extension, however, we have not completed wave 2 of the extension. What I had labeled as wave 2 on my original chart is most likely wave a of 2. I was simply eager for this big down swing that is on the horizon. Good news is that we can increase our positions by longing and then re-shorting the top :)
The targets here set up some very nice harmonic patterns. The low target is 231 and the high target is 240. The low target 231 will create a very nice Gartley Harmonic, and the high target 240 will create a very nice Crab Harmonic. Depending on what the lower timeframes dictate, either one of these prices will be an extremely good short with a very tight stop-loss and very low r/r.
As was said in the first chart I ever posted "Want what the market wants" do not want what you want! Let the new information organize itself rather than trying to massage it into old categories. One of the most harmful things you can do in trading is anchor on to an ungrounded belief. Nobody trades the market, we all trade our individual belief systems. When someone says that "you can't do this" or "the market will do this" they are really talking about their beliefs. If you learn to trade your individual beliefs about the market you will find that you end up seeing a lot more possibilities in all markets, and you end up profiting with much more ease. There are basically two kinds of beliefs: limiting beliefs and liberating (chaotic) beliefs. Many traders are stuck in a limiting belief system because they refuse to admit that they are wrong, or simply because they cannot see any other way. Once you learn to trade your limiting beliefs for liberating beliefs trading becomes much more like a leisurely stroll through the park, rather than an arena where you are fighting other traders to the death.
Good Luck and Happy Trading! :)
Extension
Likely Elliott Wave Count for BitcoinGreat place to start re-opening shorts with a tight stop-loss. Counts on the lower time-frames support the ending of Wave 5 of 5 of c of 2 of (3)
There's also a big bearish momentum divergence on the AO at this time-frame and a 62% retracement of wave 1 of (3). Since this appears to be a Wave 3 of (3) on the horizon the next drop will be extremely strong. Bulls beware.
"No amount of thinking can accomplish what a small amount of not thinking can."
EURJPY / 4HR / BULLISH GARTLEY PATTERN (VIDEO)www.youtube.com
Please check out the video above explaining the trade.
Star Prosper
Philip Stewart
GER30: Another Test of StructureOne of my current clients is a big trader of the German DAX so i find myself looking at this index on almost a daily basis. The more I look at it, the more I enjoy breaking it down as it seems to be a pretty technical friendly chart.
When taking a look at it today in my Live Trading Room we noticed a few things. The obvious structure level looking left, the potential butterfly pattern completion at that structure level and a large area of confluence between numerous Fibonacci extensions and inversions. We've also got some AB=CD action thrown in there as well. Yes there's an even bigger potential butterfly that could be setting up on the higher timeframes. But there's no need to worry about that until structure is broken.
Akil
USDCAD: keep watching 1.1917 area for a top.Hi guys,
USD/CAD is the pair that is on my watching list for this week and is very interesting. The level that I am watching is 1.1917 which can a trend line from 07/2013. Also lets keep in mind that the H&S has already hit target and looks like we are in 5 waves up in this pair. Time for correction or reversal? I don't know, but thing is for sure, if he gets around 1.1900 will be very interesting and I am try short with tight Stop loss.
Which one you want to play?Almost everything @ final leg... which one you will trade and please share the idea why you trade?
So everyone can learn some new techniques
Here is my idea :
I will sell this pair between 0.7812 - 0.7839 if i get a bearish divergence in RSI.
If RSI make higher high I will wait for the price to reach @ 0.7900 to complete the Gartley
Happy Holidays!
Bel-AIr Trades
Fibs resistance zone - Can it lead to a correction in Yen? This setup is part of the FX Weekly Markets Analysis goo.gl
The WMA setup was based on a Fib extensions confluence zone and a possible daily Wedge pattern.
My targets are up to 200 pips for this trade but it can be an even bigger move if we will see the confirmation signals I'm looking in this trade.
Today's Ourside Bar gives another potential reversal pattern to support this setup
Read the setup and more FX setups in the WMA, posted in my blog goo.gl
GBPUSD 4h: a short structure-based tradeNew lower low, waiting for retest of previous low.
Sell at confluence with 50% fibonacci retracement of the last swing low.
T1 at structure (blue dotted line) which is 1.27 fibonacci extension of the last swing low as well.
T2 at 61.8% retracement of the main swing high in this chart
After the Fact Cypher; Pound I didn't take this trade, as it was after the fact. I saw this formation and wondered if this was valid or not.
The rules call for the C point to hit the 1.27 extension, which it did.
The rules also call for there to be a close beyond A, which happened, but not a cleanly as one would like.
I'll be sure to keep an eye on future Cypher patterns to determine whether the same bar that hits the 1.27 should also close beyond A. Although this trade reacted nicely, I can't count on all of them too as well.
Tutorial: Fib Extension ToolYou can use it for different things. my main use for it is to project targets based on impuls legs.
not always will price follow the AB=CD target. instead it often reverses before reaching point D.
This tool can help you identify alternative targets.
Technically speaking the shown example of usage isn't called a fib extension but a fib expansion.
you can get fib extensions if you put point A' exactly back to A.
You can find the tool in your drawing toolbar by clicking the third icon and selecting "Trend-Based Fib Extension".
When you click on a drawn fib extension a little options tootlbar will appear where you can customize your fib levels.
Commonly used levels for expansions / extensions are: 0.382 - 0.5 - 0.618 - 0.764 - 1 - 1.272 - 1.414 - 1.5 - 1.618 - 2
Keep in mind though, it is statistically proven that Fibonacci extensions work no better at predicting where price is going to turn than any other percentage.
It's more of a self-fulfilling prohecy than anything else.
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Fib Extension ToolYou can use it for different things. my main use for it is to project targets based on impuls legs. not always will an ABCD pattern have the AB=CD 1:1 ratio. CD will often be in a fib ratio to AB like indicated on the chart. using the tool you can find different levels quickly and even set your own custom level values.
You can find it in your drawing toolbar by clicking the third icon and selecting "Trend-Based Fib Extension"
