Extension
Daily Mean Extension with Bearish Conf. on Lower TF's (GBPJPY)On the daily TF for the GBPJPY the bullish impulse has been stalling and we are now consolidating in an area well extended from the 200 SMA. On the 4HR, there has been several attempts from the bears to break below the 200 SMA and have held, but now we have had a big impulse down, through the 200 SMA with a bullish correction. This is more easily seen on the 1HR, but regardless a sell stop has been placed below the low of the bearish candle. (148.665 - a few pips) (A bearish MACD signal on the 1HR, CCI breaking below -100, etc. could also do instead of trading the breakout below the candle.) Partial TP at 147.029 as its been a significant level in the past, and it would be smart to trail the rest of the trade on its way back to the mean on the Daily.
Risk off week?The iShares ETF that tracks more risky micro-cap stocks - IWC - reached an important 161.8% extension of a prior move. I think we could see a pullback from here to re-test the breakout level around $90. If appetite for risk stays strong, it could be a short-lived pullback, or if investors reduce risk, this could suffer more than the main indices and their ETFs.
USD/JPY - Correction in wave 2 completed at 107.30USD/JPY has been correcting in wave 2 since the 118.67 high in mid-December 2016. This wave 2 correction completed at 107.30, just above the 61.8% corrective target at 106.85.
Wave 3 higher is now developing and should continue to higher towards at least 126.41 and more likely extend higher to the 161.8% extension-target of wave 1, which is seen at 138.23. Third waves is normally the strongest waves and tend to extend. As Pretcher says " Third waves are wonders to behold ".
Short-term, I'm looking for a minor correction into the 108.72 - 109.17 area from where the next impulsive rally higher is expected. At no point can a break below 107.30 be accepted under this count .
EUR/GBP: Trend Continuation Trade Looking at the 4H and D charts we can see this pair is in a Bullish Trend. With this in mind, i'm looking for a potential entry to the upside. Here we have a prior consolidation zone acting as possible Support. We also have some Fib Confluence at this level with the .786 and .886 retracement. As well as the 1.272 and 1.414 extensions.
CHF/JPY: Major Support Level Bullish OpportunityLooks like this pair could come down and test a Major Support Level @112.500 (last touched June 14 2017). Not only is this a Major Support Level but it is also a Psychological Level . We also have some Confluence with the 1.414 Extension as well.
R:R 1.65 and 2.57
GBP/USD Gartley PatternAlmost text book Gartley Pattern setup. I will wait for monday to possibly create a lower high and maybe an M in London. I will be setting a pending order at the .618 retracement and set an 80 pip stop loss. I will not be taking a huge position in case I am wrong. I do not want to lose all my capital. I will roll my stops IF the market begins to fall in my favor, I will eventually move stops to break even. I will set my TP a little bit before the full D extension in order to not get tricked out. We shall see what the week brings, but I will not be entering this trade until I see a .618 retracement.
Best of Luck
-The Market Vampire
EUR/JPY Possible M Formation at the .786Here we have a possible Extension to the 1.272 from the .786 Retracement. I will not take the trade until I see it come back up and test the .786 retracement and there is obvious TDI divergence. We shall see what happens after Monday. I wouldnt be surprised if Monday the market rallies up a bit to trap more buyers, then drop it quickly in London.
www.tradingview.com
Possible Consolidation Break GBP/CHFwww.tradingview.com
Possible Reversal setup for a breakout of the Consolidation on the Daily Chart. Testing the 76.8, waiting for the Bullish move to the upside, take profit at the 127.8. The 127.8 is a previous resistance/support level from previous data. Structure leaves clues! Be patient and wait for the setup into this move. Could take a month or so to complete.
GBPUSD- The Next Trend Trading Opportunity last week we fired off a long opportunity here on the GBPUSD at the 1.3060's level looking to capture initial profits at a retest of the previous structure highs. Now that we've reached those highs, the market is going to offer us another "decision point"
A break above close above at this decision point would tell me to expect another extension higher where pullbacks can be used to hop on the bullish move, while a failure to break this level would lead me to expect a deeper pullback. IF we get the deeper pullback the next buying opportunity will be at a retest of previous structure support where I initially got involved in the trade at.
An even deeper pullback and violation of that level would provide pattern traders with the opportunity to buy at the completion of a bullish Gartley Formation.
Akil
GOLD - Looking For A Potential Push Higher Part IILast week we took a look at a potential bullish Head & Shoulders pattern setting up on Gold. The market proceeded to fulfill that prediction so of course the question now is "What's Next?"
COUNTERTREND TRADERS
I would look for a push up into a next level of previous structure resistance as that looks to be the next place in which the buying pressure may run out of steam.
TREND TRADERS
I would look for a retracement back into previous structure and look to buy the dip in advance of the level mentioned above.
Akil
GOLD - Looking For A Potential Push HigherGold/US Dollar is another pair that has broken a significant level of structure today completing a Head & Shoulders pattern by breaking the neck line. For me all signs point towards a move higher and there looks to be a lot of opportunity.
Like the other pairs discussed today, I like to buy on dips, so a pullback to or into the neckline/right shoulder is the area that I would be watching for, for long opportunitties.
Akil
USDCAD - BREAK BELOW, CLOSE BELOWToday's $USD weakness has pushed the $USDCAD below previous structure lows, opening up the opportunity for yet another extension lower.
I don't know what type of relief that we'll see with price (when do we ever KNOW what the market will do), but I will be eying up a few different levels for my next opportunity to get short over the upcoming days/weeks.
Akil
EURAUD Head & Shoulders/2618 (It's Not As Confusing As it Looks)So tonight I wanted to revisit a pair that we looked at this weekend, but first of all congrats to anybody that was able to catch all or part of the painless 100+ pip drop!! (RING THE REGISTER!) Now the question is what's next? and my answer may not be what you're expecting.
Despite price pulling back into our previous level of structure, I still have a higher time frame bullish bias on this pair and am looking for a potential bullish head & shoulders pattern to set up. If you're a trader that likes to trade this type of pattern at the right shoulder instead of the neck line then a secondary 2618 looks to be a good way for you to get involved. \
Tomorrow evening 9:30 & 11pm (New York Time), we have news releases from the Aussie, which is always,,,"interesting" considering how thin the markets are during that time.
If the chart above seems a little confusing, keep an eye out for the video release as that may clear up any questions that you may have. Of course feel free to leave them below as well as I try to answer everyone when I have the time. DO ME A FAVOR & TAKE A SECOND TO HIT THAT LIKE BUTTON AS WELL WHILE YOU'RE DOWN THERE.
Also "Don't Feed The Trolls" (DFTT) so if someone leaves a negative comment under a question or comment that you post, just ignore them, they just want attention to help brighten their sad existence. LOL
Akil Stokes
DFFT (Maybe i'll start a movement with this saying)
P.S. I'll update when the video is out assuming I'm allowed to do so via the tradingview house rules. GOOD LUCK THIS WEEK!
ADI breakout to the downside!!higher time frame is showing defined downtrend and exhibiting trend strength- using moving averages as dynamic resistance/
support
-intermediate timeframe shows trend alignment to the downside and price pull back to short term moving average
-looking for it trade to pivot low of 78.58 and breakout to the downside on intermediate timeframe
-on the shorter time frame- it is also showing trend alignment and favors a higher probability favoring the trend to the downside
-price is also pulling back to the .236 retracement level of 78.98..would look to initiate position in that area to the ride back down and setting a tight stop over 79.0x area
-as price resumes downtrend on the intermediate timeframe- it should also translate to the lower time frame and breakdown past the pivot low of 78.58 and along with increased selling pressure towards the path of least resistance to 74.7x area (.618 extension level)
rai inverse head and shoulder breakouthigher timeframe showing strong uptrend and excellent trend strength
intermediate timeframe showing trend alignment and showed the breakout of resistance area 67.0x area after completing inverse h and s pattern with strong positive volume pressure
measured move from head of pattern to neckline is a .55 move which should give projected target of 67.55 and extension level .618 at 67.8x area
consolidation in this previous range should provide enough momentum and relative strength has room to run
setting stop underneath breakout candle in case of a false breakout move
sbux breakout lookoutlong term trend is in uptrend with trend strength increasing
intermediate time frame is showing increasing uptrend with slightly flattening longer term moving average
might be indicating consolidation...forming a tight symmetrical flag in uptrend
move should lead to breakout past resistance area of 63.5x area and into areas of least resistance
target is the .618 extension level at 65.85
volatility is contracting setting up for a major move
possible breakdown due to negative divergence in rsi so remaining cautious- setting stop at 62.9x area
volume is showing strong positive pressure