Exxon Mobil (XOM): Preparing for a Q1 2025 SetupHeading into Q1 2025, we believe NYSE:XOM could present a promising buying opportunity, and we are preparing a setup to align with our bias. Since April, we have been closely monitoring Exxon Mobil, and the technical picture continues to gain clarity as the stock respects both the range middle and range high. The wave ((b)) overshot wave A by a significant margin but still within acceptable limits for a flat correction.
Since the overshoot in early October, NYSE:XOM has seen a substantial decline—falling 17% over 75 days, a significant move for this stock. The primary driver behind this decline seems to be ongoing shareholder challenges. Over the last three years, Exxon Mobil has resisted calls for meaningful carbon emissions reductions, instead doubling down on traditional oil and gas operations. Legal action against shareholder activists pushing for emissions reduction targets has only added to the controversy, with proposed changes falling short of expectations.
The shareholder concerns highlight a critical point: some voting patterns defy logic when aligned with long-term goals. Questions remain about whether Exxon Mobil should, or can, prepare for a carbon-neutral future. The widely publicized shareholder vote in 2021, which many hoped would lead to substantial changes, seems to have produced minimal practical outcomes.
Despite these issues, we see potential for NYSE:XOM to resolve its challenges in the near future. From a technical standpoint, we observe a strong likelihood of a wave C drop into the $101–$92 range, which aligns with the 61.8%–78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels. This would be a key area to begin building a position.
Exxon
Exxon is oversold (the most since 2020)NYSE:XOM is inside it's sideways channel since March 2024 and trades within a price range of $108 - $123 with one failed breakout to the upper side in October.
The recent pulldown came from commodity prices (oil) and political drama about how much oil will be offered in Trump's term. Of course, it would be best if supply will not outpace demand too much since this would let oil prices drop. Trump will learn this soon enough. Because of that it's mostly noise what we have seen in this chart.
The level at $108 offered strong support twice and the sector (XLE) is also offering support itself. Also, the last time we've seen this stock so oversold was during the Covid crash in 2020.
From a fundamental perspective, Exxon Mobil's recent performance highlights its strong investment potential. The company's total shareholder yield, combining dividends and buybacks, now exceeds 7%, offering substantial returns to investors. In Q3 2024, Exxon reported $8.6 billion in net profit, with a 25% production increase, partly due to the acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources. Despite a 5% earnings decline from lower commodity prices, Exxon's diversified operations and strategic investments in alternative energy position it well for long-term growth. The recent stock price dip presents an attractive entry point for investors seeking robust returns in the energy sector.
Target Zones
$114.00
$123.00
Support Zones
$108.00
Exxon's Make-or-Break Moment: $123 Resistance in FocusThe chart distinctly illustrates that the stock has been in a consolidation phase for over a year and is presently trading slightly below its resistance zone.
For a potential upward movement, the price must surpass the 123 level and maintain its position above this threshold.
At the same time, there is a significant likelihood that the stock price may encounter rejection once more, leading to a decline towards its trendline support level.
ExxonMobil projects stability in global oil demand through 2050ExxonMobil has released a report projecting that global oil demand will remain stable until 2050 despite the accelerating shift towards renewable energy sources. According to ExxonMobil, oil demand is expected to stabilise after 2030, maintaining levels above 100 million barrels per day, closely aligning with the current 102.2 million barrels per day. This forecast starkly contrasts with its competitor, BP, which anticipates a decline to 75 million barrels per day by 2050.
The report highlights that petroleum products will continue to play a critical role in industrial processes and heavy transportation sectors such as shipping, trucking, and aviation. Moreover, ExxonMobil notes that despite the increased adoption of electric vehicles and other renewable energy resources, oil and natural gas are projected to constitute over half of the global energy mix by 2050. This outlook supports an optimistic long-term scenario for ExxonMobil's core oil and gas operations.
Technical analysis of Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM)
Reviewing potential trading strategies based on the technical setup of ExxonMobil's stock:
Timeframe : Daily (D1)
Current trend : the stock is trending upward within an ascending channel, having recently rebounded from the support level at 114.00 USD and approaching a critical resistance at 120.00 USD
Short-term target : the immediate upside target lies at the resistance level of 123.65 USD
Medium-term target : a breach of the 123.65 USD resistance could pave the way for further gains towards 127.60 USD
Key support : positioned at 114.00 USD
Reversal indicator : if the stock breaks below the key support at 114.00 USD, it will negate the current bullish scenario, potentially driving prices down to 108.45 USD
ExxonMobil's shares currently benefit from positive momentum, having broken the upper boundary of a descending channel. A successful breach of the key resistance at 120.00 USD would signify an exit from a Triangle pattern, potentially strengthening the bullish momentum with a target at 127.60 USD, aligned with the pattern's projected outcome.
Investors should closely monitor ExxonMobil's movements, especially in light of its optimistic oil demand forecast and the potential impact on its stock price in the context of prevailing market dynamics and energy sector trends.
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Exxon Mobile (XOM): Awaiting Long Term Entry at $65Our group has recently revisited Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM), and while there hasn't been much change, it's worth reassessing. The stock has entered the zone between 100% and 138%, which we identify as the level for Wave A and has respected this level.
Long-Term Outlook:
We anticipate a significant downward movement over the long term, potentially reaching the $65 level. This is where we plan to make substantial long-term purchases. The range between $65.50 and $64.40 has been consistently respected, reinforcing our strategy to wait for these levels before entering the market heavily.
Short-Term Outlook:
In the short term, Exxon has been trading within a range for nearly a year and a half. It briefly broke below this range to complete the larger Wave (A)and then broke above it to finish the sub-wave A. We are now entering a potential Wave B zone.
Current Strategy:
- Long-Term: We are waiting for the price to drop to the $65 range before making significant purchases.
- Short-Term: We are monitoring the $104 to $100 zone, which looks attractive for a potential reversal. However, given the risk, we are not placing any entries yet and will wait to observe the market's reaction.
Exxon continues the Energy forever bull marketExxonMobil Corporation (/ˌɛksɒnˈmoʊbəl/ EKS-on-MOH-bəl; commonly shortened to Exxon ) is an American multinational oil and gas corporation and the largest direct descendant of John D. Rockefeller's Standard Oil. The company, which took its present name in 1999 per the merger of Exxon and Mobil, is vertically integrated across the entire oil and gas industry, and within it is also a chemicals division which produces plastic, synthetic rubber, and other chemical products. ExxonMobil is headquartered near the Houston suburb of Spring, Texas, though officially incorporated in the U.S. state of New Jersey. : 1 It is the largest United States-based oil and gas producing company. ExxonMobil is also the eighth largest company in the world by revenue and the third largest in the US.
XOM Exxon Mobil Corporation Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought the dip on XOM:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of XOM Exxon Mobil Corporation prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 120usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-1-17,
for a premium of approximately $10.05.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Exxon Mobil: On the Brink of a Collapse?Having not reviewed Exxon Mobil for a while, it's important to note its strong correlation with oil prices, on which we're currently positioned in a short trade. Accordingly, we also anticipate a downward trend for Exxon Mobil that has yet to conclude. The construction of Wave E or overarching Wave (A) peaked at approximately $96. The critical question now is whether we're forming a Flat in the form of either a Regular or Expanded Flat.
We'll observe how this unfolds without making speculative judgments due to the unusual nature of witnessing an ABCDE movement towards Wave (A). Over the next year, we expect Exxon Mobil to decline, targeting a retracement between $75 and $50 as the maximum. Any level within this range presents a solid buying opportunity for a long-term investment, anticipating a robust Wave III.
XOM Exxon Mobil Corporation Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought XOM ahead of the previous earnings:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of XOM Exxon Mobil Corporation prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 105usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-3-15,
for a premium of approximately $2.37.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
$XOM Is Undervalued. The logic is that price will gravitate to liquidity. Exxon Mobile seems to have an abnormal amount of liquidity sitting above all time highs. Gut says we take out those highs pretty soon.
Here are some other considerations:
-Exxon Mobil also currently has the highest percentage of short interest in modern history.
-The company has a low valuation of 11x earnings, pays a 3.66% dividend yield with over 40 years of consecutive annual dividend growth, and its balance sheet has a AA- credit rating.
-Exxon earns twice as much income and 7.5x as much revenue as Nvidia.
-Warren Buffett has been adding to their oil positions (Buffet Effect).
-Energy sector sentiment is quite poor.
Exxon Mobil to target 111.6 after crossing resistance line1-hour chart, the stock is trying to beat the resistance, but still does not have enough bullish power.
However, it seams it will rebound soon,and after crossing the resistance (blue line) around 104.7, the target will be 111.6 - A rising wedge chart pattern.
Below support A, the next down target will be support B line.
RSI is positive
Energy Stocks: Macro Fib SchematicsThis idea beholds 6 of the largest Energy companies in the world.
(Shell, Chevron, Exxon, BP, Duke, and OXY Petroleum.)
These macro schematics have been crafted through meticulous Fibonacci techniques.
I've laid every one on a 3 month timeframe starting at 1988. History buffs will understand the time reference to the rough "start" of Middle Eastern conflicts from the West and the rise of the price of "fossil fuels".
I'm not begging anyone to understand this genius mastery of Fib tools. You either see it or you don't.
I've linked my ENERGY COMMODITIES idea below for more analysis.
XOM Exxon Mobil Corporation Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought XOM when they made "more money than God" here:
or ahead of the previous earnings:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of XOM Exxon Mobil Corporation prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 110usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-10-27,
for a premium of approximately $1.43.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
EXXON MOBIL Buy opportunity lower.Exxon Mobil is trading between the MA50 and MA200 (1d) which is approximately the 0.618 - 0.5 Fibonacci range.
Technically the most usual buy opportunity is on the 0.236 Fibonacci level.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy when the 0.236 Fibonacci level breaks.
Targets:
1. 119.00 (the High on 3 separate occasions).
Tips:
1. When the RSI (1d) is on a downtrend and reverses to cross over the MA trend line, it is an action that validates the buy. Use this as an additional tool.
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Make Exxon Great Again. As Here's A Hundred Fold OpportunityElectric vehicles are growing so fast that Exxon Mobil is preparing for a future when "customers don’t need that gasoline".
Exxon Mobil Corp., which operates one of the world’s biggest oil-refining networks, is trying to be more responsive to changing consumer demands as the energy transition gathers pace. The changes it’s considering include potentially replacing some gasoline production with chemicals.
The oil giant has long pursued a strategy of upgrading refineries to expand production and make higher-value products from crude oil such as lubricants and plastic feedstock. But it now sees those projects potentially helping the company to move away from traditional fuels, demand for which is likely to wane in coming decades.
The strategy, discussed in August 2023 by executives at a presentation to investors and media, shows how even Exxon, one of the leading proponents of fossil fuels, is being forced to reckon with a future in which electric vehicles significantly eat into gasoline consumption.
Exxon has already reduced production of fuel oil and high-sulfur petroleum at refineries in Singapore and the UK. Over time, it’s open to cutting output of gasoline, the focus of the company’s refining business since Henry Ford introduced the Model T nearly 100 years ago. The goal is to produce more chemicals, found in everything from paint to plastic, for which there are few low-carbon alternatives.
"We’re planning on modifying some of that yield from gasoline to distillate and chemicals feed," Jack Williams, Exxon senior vice president, said earlier this year at the company’s office in Spring, Texas. "We’ve got projects that we know we would do to take those steps."
Exxon gets most of its earnings from oil and natural gas production but refining has always been in its corporate DNA, right back to its original incarnation as part of John D. Rockefeller’s Standard Oil, which was established in the 19th century.
Refining allows Exxon to earn money right along the fossil fuel supply chain, from the wellhead to the gas tank. But with traditional fuels such as gasoline under threat from EVs, refineries worldwide are being forced to adapt quickly. Some European plants shut down during the pandemic, while others in the US switched to biodiesel.
Exxon wants to take a more nuanced approach by upgrading facilities to switch in and out of products depending on demand. To give an example, an Exxon refinery in Singapore used to produce fuel oil that sold for $10 per barrel below the price of Brent crude, but after a recent upgrade, the facility produces lubricant base stocks that sell for $50 above Brent.
Exxon has upgraded and added to its refineries at Fawley in the UK and Beaumont in Texas to produce more diesel, which is used for heavy-duty transportation and is less vulnerable to competition from electric vehicles.
"You just have more variables now due to the energy transition," said Jay Saunders, a natural resources fund managers at Jennison Associates, which has $186 billion under management. "Having a high-quality refining asset with flexibility will be very important."
Exxon’s refining and chemicals footprint is at least double that of its Big Oil competitors, potentially making it more vulnerable to a speedy energy transition, and especially the growth of electric vehicles. But executives believe the potential for reconfigurations is far greater than that of its peers, providing an opportunity to profit in a low-carbon future.
"This really allows us to pivot as demand evolves," said Karen McKee, President of Exxon’s Product Solutions division.
Biodiesel is particularly attractive to Exxon because reconfiguring its existing refineries costs about half as much as building a new plant, said Neil Hansen, senior vice president of product solutions. Demand for biodiesel, which is manufactured from vegetable oil or recycled restaurant grease, is expected to quadruple to 9 million barrels a day by 2050, he said.
Exxon is halfway through an eight-year plan to overhaul its fuels and chemicals division, which also involves cutting costs, improving operational performance and selling assets that don’t make the grade. Exxon will operate just 13 refineries worldwide by the end of 2023 after selling five in the past four years to focus on the biggest and lowest-cost operations.
Chemicals will be key to the strategy’s success. Exxon sees demand growth for its high-performance chemicals at about 7% a year, contrasting sharply with gasoline, which is expected to peak globally by the end of the decade. To keep up with this demand, Exxon plans to build a new dedicated chemical plant every four to seven years, Williams said.
The company’s refineries provide an additional means to make chemicals, but they will focus on responding to consumer preference rather than making a big bet on any particular product, Williams said.
"We’re not going to do it while the demand is still there," he said. "We’re going to it at a time when the demand trends are clear and customers don’t need that gasoline."
At the same time technical picture in Exxon stocks (dividends adjusted) illustrates Exxon got a huge support of 30-years SMA, and right here is a key Multiyear breakout.
Further a hundred fold growth is right there to come. Make Exxon Great Again.
#MEGA
XOM, HUGE WAVE-EXTENSIONS, Oil-Market View, UPCOMING TRENDS!Hello There!
Welcome to my new analysis about XOM on several timeframe perspectives. The oil market has shown up with a massive pullback to the downside since the war developments have put heavy pressure on the whole oil market and drove the supply rally within the market. Since then the market managed to recover with a substantial rally moving into new all-time-highs and is actually forming a massive gigantic formational-structure here from where the market is setting up further determination dimensions.
Currently XOM is forming a continuation-formation on the local timeframes which is an crucial wedge-formation, and this wedge-formation has a increased potential to complete within the next times. Once this formation has been completed the targets as mentioned in my analysis are going to be activated. From there on the volatility within the market has to be determined further and if the already established XOM developments hold on there is an increased possibility for the market to continue into the already established direction.
XOM being the largest market-cap stock within the oil market sector is driving the oil market and wall street developments of oil stocks increasing by over 60%. The fact that the oil market could recover from the main war shocks that showed up with massive bearish pullbacks within the whole market does not mean this holds true for the whole stock market because there are sector stocks within the market that actually show greater bearish inclinations. In this case it will be highly determining on how the whole oil market actually continues and if the established dynamic holds on for this sector stock.
In this manner, thank you everybody for watching the analysis, support from your side is greatly appreciated.
VP
XOM has shown a consolidation patternXOM has shown a consolidation pattern
This chart shows the weekly candle chart of ExxonMobil's stock in the past 4 years. The graph overlays the bottom to top golden section at the beginning of 2020. As shown in the figure, ExxonMobil's stock has shown a consolidation pattern of high to strong overall after completing a small level double top at the beginning of this year! The small double top of ExxonMobil's stock at the beginning of this year was suppressed by the 3.618 level of the gold split at the bottom of the graph, and did not touch any strong support level for the low point of the pullback thereafter! So, in the future, the stock market of ExxonMobil is likely to weaken and continue to retreat towards the downside!
Double top form of ExxonMobil's stock has been completedDouble top form of ExxonMobil's stock has been completed
This chart shows the weekly candle chart of ExxonMobil's stocks over the past 4 years. The graph overlays the bottom to top golden section at the beginning of 2020. As shown in the figure, the small-scale double top form of ExxonMobil's stock has been completed. Now, there is a long short competition at the bottom of the figure against the 3.000 and 3.272 positions in the golden section, and it is likely to break down in the future! For a period of time to come, just use the long start level of ExxonMobil's stock in late March this year at $99.63 as the long short divide!
XOM Exxon Mobil Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought XOM here:
Or when they made more money than God:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of XOM Exxon Mobil prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 105usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-8-18,
for a premium of approximately $2.16.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.