EXOON MOBIL: FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS + PRICE ACTION |SHORT VIEW 🔔urning oil creates carbon and contributes to global warming. That is a fact that cannot be ignored, and one of the main reasons why the world seeks to limit its use in the future. As a result, clean energy is becoming a major resource for the world's energy supply. But it has not yet reached that level, which means that oil is still an important part of the global energy supply.
The International Energy Agency estimates that global oil demand could rise to 104.1 million barrels per day in 2026 from 96.5 million barrels per day in 2021. The agency predicts that market demand will begin to plateau in 2030. In the last decade, 60% of the growth in oil demand has come from road transportation. However, a shift to more electric vehicles is looming.
However, the petrochemical industry's need for oil may persist. The IEA expects the petrochemical industry to account for 60% of oil demand growth over the next decade due to demand for plastics. The petrochemical sector's appetite for oil should grow along with global population growth and economic growth, especially in emerging economies.
Even if one takes these projections at face value, it is still fair to assume that it will be several years before oil demand begins to decline, even if it reaches a point earlier where it stops growing strongly. That should be enough to keep the big oil companies profitable for years to come. ExxonMobil operates all over the world and has a significant presence in Asia.
There is a bearish part to the argument: ExxonMobil's net income and EBITDA have been trending downward for the past decade.
Even more troubling, the company's debt levels have risen, and its return on invested capital has declined.
Commodity prices, such as oil and natural gas, are subject to large fluctuations and can remain low or high for long periods of time depending on political or macroeconomic factors. These changes directly affect ExxonMobil's earnings. As an example, ExxonMobil posted a profit of $4.7 billion in the second quarter, compared to a loss of $1.1 billion in the previous quarter.
Since the end of 2020, the company has reduced its debt by $7 billion. Its cost-cutting efforts have saved it $4 billion in structural costs over the past 18 months. By 2023, the total savings will be $6 billion. The company also cut its annual capital spending from more than $24 billion in 2019 to $17 billion in 2020. Management now expects capital spending to be near the lower end of its 2021 projection of $16 billion to $19 billion. In short, the company is moving in the right direction.
Nevertheless, ExxonMobil may not return to the level of earnings growth it showed during the shale boom. That's partly because oil demand growth is expected to slow. Even if higher commodity prices and stable demand allow the company to reduce debt and maintain dividend payments, earnings growth is likely to be limited. Moreover, projected conditions could put downward pressure on prices, and the influence of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its individual members could keep oil prices volatile.
For all of these reasons, ExxonMobil stock may continue to underperform the broader market over the next decade. Investors will be able to find better dividends and growth opportunities elsewhere.
Exxon
XOM Price Target $71 by DecemberWhile the Energy sector as a whole is trending up with the rise in crude oil and the demand for it. However, until now, Exxon Mobile was under a lot of scrutiny for not embracing ESG protocols, which led to their attack from "Social-Good" Activists. This, in-turn, led to the conversion of the leadership strategy, which now prioritizes removing their carbon footprint. With that said, they have now cleared that obstacle as well as moved back to full operability.
To avoid overcomplicating things, $XOM has amazing financials, is a market mover, AND now is a favored oil firm in an incredibly booming market. They will have an amazing earnings call next session and this will propel them to the next level.
My recommendation is to add 10% of your portfolio to this firm with a 10% trailing stop loss. The price target is between $68 - $71 by end of the year.
Happy Investing!
Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM)Oil companies have been hit hardest by the drop in oil price in the first quarter of 2020. Since then, oil has been rapidly recovering. Locally, Exxon Mobil has followed the same trend.
Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) is moving in a large downtrend channel. We are below the middle line of this channel. If we break it, it will reach the upper resistance line.
Best regards EXCAVO
XOM Ready for the Bullish ImpulseGood morning traders, today we bring you a bullish scenario that we consider interesting in EXXON MOBIL.
🔸From a technical perspective, we can detail that the price bounced off a strong Support Zone.
🔸Then, it broke to the upside the Descending Trendline and continued its upward movement, with a marked uptrend.
🔸We see that the price began to consolidate in a corrective structure, and, if we take the upside movement that happened in the past, both corrections occurred in the same price range.
🔸A couple of days ago there was a very strong candle to the upside, which confirmed the breakout of the structure.
🔸As the previous resolution was a strong move towards the resistance zone, we expect the same behavior in the current situation.
EXXON MOBIL LONG|ECONOMIC RECOVERY BET|
XOM is an oil major, and the stock fell from 70$ to 30$ as a result of the corona-crisis
That brought economic recession and a decrease in both demand and price of oil
Later, XOM established a double bottom after retesting the lows of the pandemic
And now it is surging.
I think that buying XOM is a bet on the economic recovery
Which will happen eventually
The target of 65-67$ is very realistic
As this is the minimum of what the company should be worth without outperforming
I would say, that 65$ is the price which will be achieved by just getting the demand for oil back to normal
Without any further increase in oil prices. (As there is plenty of ready to go supply, so the new demand will be covered easily and so the oil price will remain stable as the oil companies revenue will grow!
Therefore, Long XOM.
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Elliott Wave View: Exxon Mobil Pulling BackElliott Wave View in Exxon (ticker: XOM) shows that the stock has an incomplete bearish sequence against June 8 high. The decline from June 8 high unfolded as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure, where wave (A) ended at 44.75 low. Afterwards, the bounce in wave (B) ended at 49.8 as a zig-zag Elliott Wave Structure in lesser degree. The bounce reached the 100% extension in 3 swing at the blue box area. Up from wave (A) low, wave A ended at 47.76 high and wave B pullback ended at 47.14 low. The stock then extended higher in wave C, which ended at 49.80 high. Exxon then turned lower from the blue box area. The decline has broken below wave (A) low, confirming next leg lower in wave (C) is already in progress.
Down from wave (B) high, wave 1 ended at 45.40 low. The internal subdivision of wave 1 unfolded as 5 waves impulse. Wave ((i)) ended at 47.24 low and bounce in wave ((ii)) ended at 48.75 high. The stock then resumed lower in wave ((iii)) towards 45.77 low and wave ((iv)) bounce ended at 48.20 high. Final leg wave ((v)) ended at 45.98 low, which completed wave 1. Pair then bounced in wave 2 and ended at 47.35 high. Currently, wave 3 is in progress, where wave ((i)) ended at 46.65 low and wave ((ii)) bounce ended at 47.22 high. Wave ((iii)) has resumed lower and near term, while below 49.80 high, expect bounce in 3,7, or 11 swing to fail and Exxon to extend lower again.
Elliott Wave View: Exxon Mobil Pulling BackElliott Wave View in Exxon (ticker: XOM) shows that the stock has an incomplete bearish sequence against June 8 high. The decline from June 8 high unfolded as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure, where wave (A) ended at 44.75 low. Afterwards, the bounce in wave (B) ended at 49.8 as a zig-zag Elliott Wave Structure in lesser degree. The bounce reached the 100% extension in 3 swing at the blue box area. Up from wave (A) low, wave A ended at 47.76 high and wave B pullback ended at 47.14 low. The stock then extended higher in wave C, which ended at 49.80 high. Exxon then turned lower from the blue box area. The decline has broken below wave (A) low, confirming next leg lower in wave (C) is already in progress.
Down from wave (B) high, wave 1 ended at 45.40 low. The internal subdivision of wave 1 unfolded as 5 waves impulse. Wave ((i)) ended at 47.24 low and bounce in wave ((ii)) ended at 48.75 high. The stock then resumed lower in wave ((iii)) towards 45.77 low and wave ((iv)) bounce ended at 48.20 high. Final leg wave ((v)) ended at 45.98 low, which completed wave 1. Pair then bounced in wave 2 and ended at 47.35 high. Currently, wave 3 is in progress, where wave ((i)) ended at 46.65 low and wave ((ii)) bounce ended at 47.22 high. Wave ((iii)) has resumed lower and near term, while below 49.80 high, expect bounce in 3,7, or 11 swing to fail and Exxon to extend lower again.
XOM - ENTRY Above Resistance at the 236@ 47.73XOM EXXON
ENTRY = Breakout Above resistance at the 236@ 47.73
1st Target = Gap fill 50.60
2nd Target = 58.63
HODL Target = 618@ 76+
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This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not in any way, shape or form financial or trading advice.
Good luck, happy trading and stay chill,
2degreez
Elliott Wave View: Further Strength in Exxon MobilExxon Mobil (ticker: XOM) shows an incomplete bullish sequence from 3.23.2020 low favoring more upside. Short term, the rally from 5.15.2020 low is unfolding as a 5 waves Impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from 5.15.2020 low, wave 1 ended at 46.63 and wave 2 dips ended at 43.3. Wave 3 is now in progress as another impulse in lesser degree. Up from wave 2 low at 43.3, wave ((i)) ended at 47.14 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 44.37.
Up from there, the stock rallies and ended wave (i) at 45.97 and dips to 44.80 ended wave (ii). Wave (iii) ended at 49.40 and pullback in wave (iv) ended at 48.16. While above there, and more importantly above 44.37, expect the stock to resume higher in wave wave (v). This move also ends wave ((iii)) in higher degree, then it should pullback in wave ((iv)) and then resumes higher again. The stock should see a few more highs to complete 5 waves up from 5.15.2020 low.
Short term, XOM still needs to break above 49.40 to avoid a double correction. Short Term target higher is 61.8 – 76.4 Fibonacci extension from 3.23.2020 low which comes at 51.9 – 54.7 area. Stock eventually has scope to reach 100% – 123.6% Fibonacci extension from 3.23.2020 low which comes at 59.17 – 63.65.