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Exxon

Bearish View on DowThanks for viewing. This is just from a technical view - earnings may surprise to the upside - and everyone may decide to value the market exactly the same a Jan - Feb 2020 - who knows. My view is bearish because of: Technical: - For those that value Elliot Wave; I cannot see wave (4) and (5) as already having formed - but instead see us nearing the end of wave (4) formation, - If this count is correct a reasonable target is 14,500 which is around the 0.65 Fib for the price rise since March 2009, - If the EW count is correct, the wave (1) low will act as strong support - so 24,681 should not be exceeded (I note that the NQ has already breached this mark), - The MACD histogram is trending down towards the zero line, - There appears to be 'resistance' to the RSI going above 60 - in a bear market RSI of 60 tends to act as strong resistance (at least on the daily time-frame), - A rising wedge seem to have formed and may have already broken out of the bottom of the formation, - The recent local high of 24,264 still haven't been exceeded - if this remains unbroken - look out below, - The 54 SMA moving average (which is very close) will likely act as resistance. Fundamental: - There seems not to be sufficient testing, mask-wearing, contact-tracing to fill me with confidence that this is even close to being considered contained, - Despite the Fed pledging to back-stop the corporate debt - Corporations are still entering bankruptcy proceedings. The Fed can print $ from nothing with the press of a key, but they cannot print supply chains or consumer demand (which will remain subdued for some time to come, - Your risk tolerance is significantly higher than most peoples if you are investing in Oil and Gas Exploration and Production at this time. I read a publication on the upcoming reporting of Exxon, that had a consensus expectation EPS of $0.02 and a price prediction of 10% price rise from last close of around $40 per share. I'm not sure how an EPS of $0.02 is bullish. Yesterday I saw Crude prices approach $10 a bbl - that is even stretching it for the lowest cost producers in the world, I would guess that there is not a single primary producer in the U.S. that is making profit at these levels (www.theguardian.com This article puts Exxon break even price over $70 a bbl - hope it isn't that high). - It's not all negative, not all Companies reporting have supply chain issues, some can easily pivot to work at home policies, and may even benefit from increased advertising spending during a recession. Disclosure: I am short after getting stopped into a short trade last week. It hasn't all gone my way since then - but I am hanging in there to see how it eventuates. Good luck everyone, and protect those funds. I'm off for a run.
TVC:DJIShort
by flyinkiwi10
5
Exxon -57% in 77 days and now BULL MARKET?Thanks for viewing. - Exxon lost 57% in 77 days and has since bounced strongly - so are we in a new bull-market? I would give my answer as a resounding no. Why? - Mostly because crude oil is at 30 year lows which renders all upstream activities drastically unprofitable - how unprofitable? Some estimates of Exxon's break even price per barrel are over $70 a barrel ($74 in this article; www.theguardian.com). So each barrel produced, is produced at a significant loss. It would be far more profitable to buy crude on world markets and stop all exploration or production. This would probably not be a long-term solution, but it is being considered instead of locking in a $60 plus loss per barrel. - It seems that at these crude prices that Exxon may even need to write down the value of all exploration and production assets to, or close to, zero. This happened recently for unprofitable shale oil producers - all their equipment was specialised, involved in a now universally unprofitable industry, with few buyers, and would have cost more to transport than would be gained from any sale - so when reality struck, it struck hard. - If suddenly forced to re-value oil reserves they would have a negative value as the oil would cost far more to extract than to leave in the ground. The option to "just stop extraction" isn't there in some cases - as capping a well may damage the resource and incur significant future expense to re-open. - This is a situation similar to that faced by European (and soon American) Banks due to negative interest rates; They now have liabilities on both sides of the balance sheet. The liabilities remain liabilities, but what were once assets are now cash-flow negative. Pretty hard to make money like that. - What hope is there? Oil prices may rise, but not in 2020 I feel. So some pain will need to be incurred. - The Fed is acting as buyer of last resort picking up corporate debt at 100 cents on the dollar with no regard to the credit-worthiness of the issuer. Although, they are not targeting individual Companies yet and Oil and Gas businesses continue to announce bankruptcy. - The consumer (downstream) activities may still be profitable, although the overall revenue should be expected to be down. I read two forecasts for EPS to be reported tomorrow. $0.04 from Investing.com and a consensus expectation of $0.02 from another site that had a view that prices would rise 10%. If you are bullish on earnings like that, I don't see how. Anyway, let's see what happens. Protect those funds (I see prices below $23 before the end of '20).
NYSE:XOMShort
by flyinkiwi10
Short on Exxon Mobil $XOMFundamental analysis: With oil currently trading at around 18$/barrel, it's going to be really tough for oil companies to be operating on a profit for the foreseeable future. Oil production equipment isn't meant to be halted so we can even expect extra logistical cost to storing all of it. Once travel ban is lifted around end of june, i will look to switch to a more bullish position. Technical analysis: Held off posting this idea once I saw the right shoulder of the pattern break but it seems we won't have a daily close over it which means the H&S pattern is still in play. Conservative traders might look to wait for the neckline to break @ around 39$, personally will gradually increase my position as I see this play out. Earnings is in 7 days so watchout for a pre-earnings rally; it's a great opportunity to get a great entry price if it pans out. Currently there's a bearish divergence that was formed on the MACD As you can see our targets line up perfectly with the .618 fibonacci level where we might see a reversal or continuation depending on how the situation develops. Cheers and goodluck TP1 @ 39.00$ TP2 @ 35.75
NYSE:XOMShort
by Zanalysis
OXY "SHORT"I have been pretty trash with oil trades.. but this time I believe oxy will reach new all-time lows. There is much uncertainty from investors which makes this a perfect short IMO, I have a 5/8 buy put... didn't short at $17 simply cause I was at a huge loss from some other trade (not enough capital.) I think we will revisit $12 by today and continue to make lower highs throughout the week. This won't stop Donnie Pump from tweeting but there isn't much more he can do right now. The oil cuts aren't enough to ignore the fact we will run out of storage. Good Luck!
NYSE:OXYShort
by mzombie2
EXXON MOBILEXXON Fib Levels. Disclaimer: We are not registered or licensed in any jurisdiction whatsoever to provide investing advice or anything of an advisory or consultancy nature, and are therefore are unqualified to give investment recommendations. Always do your own research and consult with a licensed investment professional before investing. This communication is never to be used as the basis of making investment decisions, and it is for entertainment purposes only.
NYSE:XOM
by CryptoTrend-Alerts
2
Exxon Mobil supply and demand analysis forecastExxon Mobil Corporation #XOM Exxon explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas. As of December 31, 2018, it had approximately 24,696 net operated wells with proved reserves of 24.3 billion oil-equivalent barrels. Exxon stock clear downtrend. With Light Crude Oil and Brent dropping like a rock, many oil related stocks like Exxon Mobil Corporation have been showing a bearish directional bias with long term shorts and new monthly supply imbalances being created and respected for months as can be seen in the monthly timeframe supply and demand technical analysis below. We read about “buy” recommendations not long ago, that was crazy! Those recommendations were probably focused on the price of oil as the reason the share price is down, with an assumption that it will go back up. Cray stuff if you lean purely on fundamentals and earnings, everything is pointing down and downtrending, why buy this stock? Think about it! It is all about the XOM price (cheap in the eyes of those urging “buy”) and an assumption that the price of oil is almost the only relevant determinant of future success of XOM. Two major negatives for Exxon Mobil Corporation currently are competition from renewables and new focus on the climate emergency. Investors might think hard before they assume that the new 10-year low for Exxon Mobile XOM share price is where the slide stops. Using a supply and demand strategy and applying the core concepts on Exxon Mobile yields another outcome. Monthly is downtrending, new supply level being created on the monthly timeframe around $68 per share as a continuation of a monthly downtrend and created also as a continuation of prior monthly supply imbalance from $80 per share.
NYSE:XOMShort
by AlfonsoMoreno