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EXY

EURUSD 9/9/24Starting this week with EU, as we always do. As you can see, we are pretty much at the centre of our current range, leading us to believe we are building liquidity on both sides. Currently, we have swept out the high from last week during a news push. After this sweep, we dropped lower than our previous low, establishing a bearish range and putting the price in a position to create a new low and drop into bearish order flow at the lower end of our higher time frame range. For now, I am waiting for the price to give us a clear move. I am more inclined to see the price drop down and then run higher into the last major high. However, as mentioned above, we have potential for new sell moves, so we will wait for something clear to establish. Trade safe, stick to your risk, and follow your plan.
by rosshayes
EURUSD 23/6/24This week on the Euro, we're looking for price action to respect the higher time frame bearish narrative and overall play within the four-hour major range that we have in play from last week. Picking up the markup we have provided, you can see what we are analyzing. Options one and two involve playing within the short-term internal range and breaking lower within those areas, giving us a bearish shift below the four-hour low we have highlighted. Of course, this means that the price will not be pulling back to the 50% of the higher timeframe range, but this is not essential—it's just preferable. If we break higher above the four-hour high highlighted above the first two areas of supply, then I'll expect the price to push up to the extreme area of supply. In turn, we are looking at the price to sell away from targeting the four-hour major low that we have marked. This is the main key for this week. If we only have a bullish week and play within the higher timeframe range, we will, of course, trade accordingly. However, we ultimately are looking for sell opportunities this week. Take a look at the chart, and you will see the areas we are focusing on. Trade safe and always stick to your plan!
by rosshayes
EURUSD 12/5/24Starting off this week with euro to the USD I'm looking at a similar scenario from last week where we had a bullish range which held up and followed through into the last session of last week so starting this week I'm expecting the bullishness to continue and for this range to hold. We have a bullish internal range which I am looking for price to run lower. before going bullish or break lower bringing us into the sub 50% of our higher timeframe range, ultimately bringing us higher into the daily order block on euro to then push lower back into the overall trend the price is in. As it stands I believe price will push lower to start the week and then we will see during the red folder news if we are going to break out of this internal range or if we are going to continue to play bullish within this either way we'll be tracking price action for longs within this range or shorts if we break out and go lower. Trade safe and read price action!
by rosshayes
EURUSD 28/4/24Starting off as we do most weeks with EURUSD we gave out this idea way back at the start of this month and we are finally starting to see price line up with our bias, now of course as always we are waiting for an idea we have to line up and provide context tot the higher time frame move to then allow us to trade on the lower time frames, this is now in play from the view of the 1hr chart as you see marked on our chart here! At the end of last week we had a nice break to the downside leaving some clear spaces for us to watch to confirm this downside shift, after all we spent most of last week travelling up with speed and momentum. now because we see a sign this might be changing i am looking to confirm this and sell into the daily and weekly trend of down! Points to watch this week. FVG on this new hourly range, OB at the top of the range that gave this move the power it currently has. Remember we aren't picking and choosing what price does we trade what it chows us and add relevance and context depending on where it decides to do certain things. Trade what you see, not what you believe you should be seeing!
by rosshayes
EURUSD → Bullish NFP figures for USD may drop EURFX:EURUSD is declining and testing the local minimum on the background of strengthening of the dollar. The price is retesting MA-200 , which only increases the chances of further decline. Today, at 13:30 GMT we will meet the NFP data, to which the market reacts quite strongly. In general, analysts expect an improvement for the dollar, as 180K is expected relative to the previous 150K . After the publication of yesterday's Initial Jobless Claims, the reality is closer that the market could see NFP 180K , if not more, as the overall market situation is improving and the fundamentals support this. EURUSD may react with a fall to the possible strengthening of the dollar, but before the fall the price may test a local high, for example 1.08170. Overall, the chart clearly shows the approximate potential. A false breakdown of resistance of the ascending channel opens the possibility to see a sell-off towards trend support. Support levels: 1.0760 Resistance levels: 1.0800, 1.08170, channel resistance In general, bullish news is expected for the US market, which may weaken the euro and the currency pair may fall. But this is news and no one knows in advance what can happen, we only try to see the scenario with a higher chance of realization FX:EURUSD TVC:EXY TVC:DXY Regards R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
4
EURUSD 19/11/23Euro USD broke out of the bearish range we had on Friday good evening into a bullish end of the week and the bullish beginning of the week looking for the low at 1.08585 to be taken to give us a clean bullish entry to the upside, As we have POI in the lower end of this range that it's going to be our ideal for entry but of course until we form our swing high we will just take it as prices delivered. Remember to always read order flow and follow what price is showing you instead of trading based on your desired direction. And, as always, stick to your risk and your plan. We'll be closely monitoring market openings and price action throughout the week. If you find this analysis useful, let us know in the comments below and hit the boost button to show your support. Here's to a successful week of trading!
by rosshayes
1
EXY CURRENCY INDEX, Preliminary Range, These Level To Watch Now!Hello Traders Investors And Community, welcome to this analysis where we are looking at the EXY CURRENCY INDEX which is the index to show the value of the euro in comparison to other currencies where we are looking at recent events, the current formational structure and what to expect the next times in order to handle the situation accordingly and in the right manner. The index experienced a steady recovery since the corona breakdowns seen this year where it moved higher but the question now is if this strength can hold on or lower levels will be visited, in this case, I detected some important signals which we should consider now in order to upcoming price-actions. Looking at my chart you can watch there that the index has formed three consecutive uptrend lines marked in blue and as the index now approached resistance at the 118 to 119 resistance level marked in light-blue this is an important range where the index can bounce again to the downside and as the index is overbought this is not far away. When the first trendline is broken to the downside it will give a first bearish shape and the index will move on to the next trendline testing it from there the index can either stabilize and move higher again or confirm the second trendline to the downside which will show up in a greater increase of bearishness at least testing the back-up-zone marked in blue. Overall we can expect the pull-back happening as mentioned the next times and for further stabilization and continuation, it forms high importance that the index bounces at the blue level between the 23.6 and 38.2 Fibonacci-support marked in my chart, when this does not happen and the index declines more from there the next remaining supports will be tested which is the decreasing support line in orange but till then the index has some good potential to confirm further bullishness in the range. It will be highly interesting how the situation is playing out here and how far and strong the pull-back is going and if there will be a solid stabilization or further declines to follow up with. In this manner, thank you for watching, support for more market insight, all the best! "Trading effectively is about accessing possibilities, not certainties." Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the market.
TVC:EXY
by VincePrince
1
EURUSD 20/8/23EURUSD has a pretty much identical setup to our GU trade idea given earlier, now we have the same cons for this markup so high volume POI c-swing potential setup if we shift lower for BOS of the 5min range, bank zones and liquidity. For now we are still waiting on our order flow change to confirm our SWH on this range BUT we are prepared when we do put it in! **KEY NOTE** Jackson hole meetings this week that always shake up the markets so please keep an eye on that event! Remember to always read order flow and follow what price is showing you instead of trading based on your desired direction. And, as always, stick to your risk and your plan. We'll be closely monitoring market openings and price action throughout the week. If you find this analysis useful, let us know in the comments below and hit the boost button to show your support. Here's to a successful week of trading!
by rosshayes
2
EURNZD 20/8/23EURNZD has become one of our main pairs after we back tested over 12months of PA and had increased returns, now we follow this pair on a daily basis! super simple sell range here so we are going to go for a short at our POI if we meet our entry requirements, NOW as we have such a large range we are using a confirm entry to get the best idea of price dropping or leading us higher. cons are good for this range, liquidity, POI high volume, bank zone at our POI and overall clean break of the last range. **KEY NOTE** Jackson hole meetings this week that always shake up the markets so please keep an eye on that event! Remember to always read order flow and follow what price is showing you instead of trading based on your desired direction. And, as always, stick to your risk and your plan. We'll be closely monitoring market openings and price action throughout the week. If you find this analysis useful, let us know in the comments below and hit the boost button to show your support. Here's to a successful week of trading!
by rosshayes
U.S Dollar Fundamental Analysis for Fri Aug 18th, 2023The dollar index eased to around 103.2 on Friday but was still on track to advance for the fifth straight week, as minutes of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting showed that policymakers stressed that upside risks to inflation remain, leaving the door open to further policy tightening. However, some participants flagged the economic risks of pushing rates too far, emphasizing that future rate decisions would depend on incoming data. The latest data also showed that the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week, pointing to continued tightness in the labor market. The dollar is set to gain against most major currencies this week but remains down against sterling as key measures of price growth monitored by the Bank of England failed to ease in July. The yield on the 10-year Treasury slid to 4.22% on Friday after rising to as high as 4.328% in the previous session, the highest since October 2022 and just a tad below its highest level since 2007. The fluctuation is due to investor concerns about the economic impact of high interest rates. The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes from July highlighted that there are still risks of higher inflation, suggesting the possibility of more tightening of monetary policy. Despite recent data indicating a decrease in inflationary pressures, a strong US economy and a robust job market are reasons supporting the continuation of high interest rates. The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage jumped by 13 basis points from the previous week to 7.09%, the highest since 2002, as the hawkish outlook for the Federal Reserve underpinned expensive mortgage rates for American consumers. A year ago, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 5.13%. "The economy continues to do better than expected, and the 10-year Treasury yield has moved up, causing mortgage rates to climb," said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. "The last time the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage exceeded seven percent was last November. Demand has been impacted by affordability headwinds, but low inventory remains the root cause of stalling home sales." Source: Freddie Mac
TVC:DXYLong
by TayFx
EXY (Euro Currency) Index Analysis 09/01/2022Our Past Euro Currency Index Analysis of March 2021: Elementary Analysis: The Euro Currency Index (EUR_I) represents the arithmetic ratio of four major currencies against the Euro: US Dollar, British Pound, Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc. All ratios are expressed in units of currency per Euro. The index was launched in 2004 by the exchange portal Stooq.com. Underlying are 100 points on 4 January 1971. Before the introduction of the European single currency on 1 January 1999 an exchange rate of 1 Euro = 1.95583 Deutsche mark was calculated. Based on the progression, Euro Currency Index can show the strength or weakness of the Euro. A rising index indicates an appreciation of the Euro against the currencies in the currency basket, a falling index in contrast, a devaluation. Relationships to commodity indices are recognizable. A rising Euro Currency Index means a tendency of falling commodity prices. This is especially true for agricultural commodities and the price of oil. Even the prices of precious metals (gold and silver) are correlated with the index. Arithmetically weighted Euro Currency Index is comparable to the trade-weighted Euro Effective exchange rate index of the European Central Bank (ECB). The index of ECB measures much more accurately the value of the Euro, compared to the Euro Currency Index, since the competitiveness of European goods in comparison to other countries and trading partners is included in it. The Euro Currency Index started on 4 January 1971 with 100 points. Before the introduction of the European single currency on 1 January 1999, an exchange rate of 1 Euro = 1.95583 Deutsche Mark was calculated. Fundamental Analysis: On April 19, 1971, the Euro Currency Index gained 99.67 points calculated with an all-time low. Until 3 December 1979, the index rose by 68.0 percent to 167.43 points. With the depreciation of the Deutsche Mark against the major currencies, the index fell to mid-1980s. On 3 May 1985, the Euro Currency Index was at level 122.26 points, up by 27.0 percent. The strength of the Deutsche Mark against almost all global currencies set the index in the following years to rise again. On 5 October 1992, a value of 195.98 points was determined. The increase in 1985 was 60.3 percent. On 25 October 2000, the index closed at 130.83 points, up by 33.2 percent. In 2000 began a multi-year upward movement of the Euro. On 29 December 2008, the index marked 209.65 points, an all-time high. The profit since year 2000 is 60.2 percent. In the course of the international financial crisis, from which the U.S. real estate crisis originated in the summer of 2007, the index began to decline. On 6 February 2009 a value of 187.84 points was determined. In the following eight months, the European single currency rebounded from the lows. On 13 October 2009, the index rose by 208.45 points, near its historical high point. A financial crisis in several member states of the Euro zone in 2010 led to the outbreak of the Euro crisis. Particularly affected is Greece (see Greek government-debt crisis from 2010), but also other countries such as Ireland, Spain, Italy and Portugal. The weakness of the Euro against almost all global currencies caused the index to fall from 29 June 2010 to 175.31 points. In the following months, the European Stability Mechanism was developed, which provides for mutual assistance in case of emergency to avoid the bankruptcy of the Member States. By May 4, 2011, the index rose to a level of 200.20 points. With the intensification of the sovereign debt crisis in the Euro zone, the Euro Currency Index fell 24 July 2012 with 168.38 points, its lowest level since March 29, 2006. Compared to the all-time high of 29 December 2008, this represents a decrease of 19.7 percent . as we have analyzed this Index last year on March 2021, we had Speculated that, the Euro zone will Depreciate and weaken Financially and Economically due to some known (So Called Pandemic) and unknown (censored) reasons such as Brexit etc. however we can see the market has showing some Bearish trend and started its Rally again and it shows the Index has reaccumulated and Corrected itself on a good note. there are some confluences such as the negative correlation of the Euro Index (EXY) with US Dollar Index (DXY) which shows that the DXY was Rising when the EXY was falling in our Past Analysis which are as follow: DXY: EXY: Looking at the Top Charts, we can clearly see that the Charts and their Price Action is negative correlation coefficient with each other, that means while the US Doller was getting Strong the Euro was weakening hence if we look at the current situations in US politics and Markets, which we have analyzed earlier this week along with the DXY. we can see that there are heavy Falls and calamities to come on the US economy which ultimately will result the rise of the counterparty currencies' such as Euro and GBP. For better understanding of the situation it is good to look at the DXY and its Current situation and our analysis on that: from March 2018 to March 2020 the entire Euro Zone countries where struggling and Correcting their economies as the Brexit and Its effects on the rest of the European businesses and Markets were ambiguous, we can call this fact as Market Distribution and Values correction. then we can see the Corona Pandemic which was an other nail in the Europe economic coffin and Brought the entire economic to its low point which had triggered the Risk Management Departments of the governments to Practice their Policies and release the Stimulants Packages in order to Prevent their Economies from more Drastically Falls and crisis. which worked as an excellent Market Fuel and uplift the Strength of their economies temporally but soon they realized the upcoming inflation and they stopped their Stimulant's Plans so does the market and Prices came to their inheritance intrinsic values and once again we could see the Prices has fallen back to their normal Level so does the EXY level. at present we can see the EXY is at its lows but is very ready to Reaccumulating and reneging for the next Bullish cycle. hence we can drive our conclusion that the Euro shall appreciate against the Doller and even some other low weight Index Makers. looking at the current inflation rate in US and China, Iran... we can see that soon these countries and their respected Markets shall come to an Hoult which will help out the EXY to Appreciate ultimately. we do not know exactly how much time will it take for it, but to us it is very clear that, it is the upcoming scenario for the Globalist and their respective European Parties... Technical Analysis: Tt is very well Observable that there exists a Bullish Divergence of Price and MACD from March 2015 to January 2017 which is the most significant sign of the Past Bearish Trend reversal and Start of the new Bullish Trend Post Feb 2017 to March 2018. looking at the chart from March 2020 to January 2022 we can see the price has made a Double Top followed by the Retracement to the 61.8% of Fibonacci Levels of its Bullish wave from 2020 to 2022. There exist a Hidden Bullish divergence of Price and MACD from March 2020 to January 2022, which is a very significant sign of Bullish trend Continuation where the Price is reneging and reaccumulating for its upcoming bullish cycles. There total of 3 Main Targets defined with Fibonacci trend Based Extension of the Last Bullish cycle and 2 Targets Defined with the Previous Bullish cycle. all the defined Targets are having confluences with each other so we can be certain that the Price shall show some Reaction at these points. there are 3 Support areas defined by Fibonacci retracement and Pivot areas of the past Bullish cycles where we can expect the Price to reverse its bearish trend incase of more Fall to the lower levels and creation of dipper Hidden bullish Divergence. as you can see we have used 2 Fibonacci trend base extension tools and Specified their Confluences areas as the Possible Resistance Zones. Remember the 4 TP and the Ultimate TP will gets confirmed as the price Triggers the 3 TP followed by some Market correction and Retracements.
TVC:EXYLong
by BitonGroup
6