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EXY

EUR USD Daily if price rejects the zone - sell.Here is the EUR chart only - note these setups are to show where if price rejects we will look short - same information below as previous post - incase traders see this instead. We have our take on the EUR USD - a lot of speculators have seen the Euro as the stronger of the currencies against the USD which has been seen as out of favour - but this is all part of the plan from the FED and US government in order to see the dollar as good for import and export . Is this all part of the money printing plan for the future to de-value the dollar? or a huge mistake causing an sovereign debt crisis? or just part of supply and demand? Let's see the Data: COT Data: EUR AVG Long Short Total long% Short % Net Change Avg_13 180,947 86,109 267,056 68% 32% 94,837 2,910 Avg_20 171,218 105,719 276,937 63% 37% 65,499 9,843 Avg_130 169,626 177,152 346,778 51% 49% -7,256 3,155 Avg_50 169,349 175,216 344,565 51% 49% -5,867 3,381 USD AVG Long Short Total long% Short % Net Change Avg_13 18,057 12,046 30,554 60% 40% 6,462 -1,569 Avg_20 19,538 12,046 31,584 62% 38% 7,491 -958 AVG 50 30,399 11,917 42,316 70% 30% 18,481 -742 Avg_130 31,126 12,171 43,297 70% 30% 18,955 -672 Technicals: Monthly Fibonacci retracement drawn and shows price will either bounce and reject 61.8% Fibonacci retrace a break to the upside will test the 70.5% or hit the 1.21 zone - Note the monthly trendline from using the Ray - has proved the constant lower highs and lower lows printed in the cycles. The lowest low of 1.066 has shown a good retest zone for targets. Fundamentals: US election rallies before taking place at the end of the year with campaigning - We have NFP numbers showing millions return to work.. but also high unemployment still looming. Trade war with China, Hong Kong unfolding with US responding High figures in multiple states which are concerns for large communities- record numbers still being released Fiscal intervention in July, August for stimulus.. constant printing money is not good for the economy. US tech stocks have seen the highest returns and zero confirmation by Dow30 and S&P following suit. - will this last? no.. billionaires just adding wealth, SME businesses not receiving the correct funding at all.. Dow 30 is in a fragile state and desperate to keep pushing higher but limited upside will cause a steep decline - refer to Dow chart.. around 27,000 is a good point for a previous monthly high but it may fall over at 28000 tops. Crippling 1trillion money printing exercise to be released to prop up false growth. enter sovereign debt crsis - printing all this money is just beyond words. With having a weak dollar and inflation created - the dollar will be out of favour. Euro second wave & quarantine rules for tourists outside EU and now Spain for UK. Brexit talks are still in focus as not much separates a no deal scenario. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. Thanks, Team Lupa
Short
by LupaCapital
EUR/USD in a Daily Cup and handle breakout pattern!Hey, I am back yet with another Forex Analysis. Today I have decided to take a better look at EUR/USD, because part of me really want's to short it as it's in strong resistance area. But! The price in this area is really stable and still showing some bull signs, so I have decided to long this pair as I have spotted it, in clear Cup and handle bullish breakout pattern. Also I was looking at EXY and DXY, EXY is in a strong uptrend, and DXY is barely holding now on good known support area, which makes me pretty bearish on overall USD pairs. Some more bull signs on the chart - The RSI is above 60, which is for me range where the moves bull moves start to happen. - MACD has started a buying wave in buying territory. - Daily Golden cross How to trade this? Entry -1.14000 - 1.14300 Take profit - Slightly below 1.15500 and 1.16100 That's a lot of pips to be made! I know that more people would be looking to short this pair, but I don't see here a reason to go against the trend, even though I shorted EU succesfuly in this uptrend. I will update this idea regularly if I see some good feedback! Make sure to follow me in order to not miss out on my future regular setups. If you found this setup useful, please don't forget to leave a like! 🙌
Long
by TiborVrbovsky
1
The Euro Index (EXY) Here on the Euro Index we have a 222 pattern that formed. what i like to see is that this pattern lines up with the COT report that was released Monday due to July 4th (United States Birthday :D 'merica) being observed on July 3rd. in the circles we have three potential bearish star patterns printing on the PRZ which is a resistance level. depending on how today closes! The COT shows the same thing. this is the first time we have seen some profit taking and contract deliveries by both the commercials and non-commercials. The Commercials delivered about 14k contracts while the non-commercials took profit on about 10k orders. the net data is as follows: Commercials: Current = (147,128)// Previous= (162,540) Non-Coms: Current= 98, 955// Previous= 118,448
TVC:EXYShort
by ARegularGuy
EXY (Euro Index) Technical and COT Analysis Here on the EXY The Euro Index we have the daily and weekly outlook. Now, the euro is playing off a 222 pattern off the Daily chart and the price level is quite significant. Now, for those who have been looking at my charts for quite sometime you will know i hate oscilitaors but until i get candlestick charting down a bit better i use them as a form of confirmation. So, with all being said on both the weekly and daily we have bearish signals. So, on the weekly ***insert personal aside here>>> I have been doing a lot of reading based on Steve Nison's work on Candlestick charting. I own his first book and found his second and his Candle Stick Chart Course book with the help from a friend on here TradingView. I am re-reading all his books to refresh my memory or learing something new*** we have a large resistance area that was made up by two weeks of strong selling. Once PA made it near the top of the resistance area PA started to break down. We know have a few weeks now of indecesion candles with this past week trowing a doji candle. From a techinical standpoint I am expecting price to dip down to the red line which is an 88 candle swing point. So, if this coming week is a bearish one then expect more bearish sentiment until we hit the pending orders of the Big Players having their buy orders near or in a support area indicated on the COT Report (which i will discuss in a bit) Next, on the Daily chart we have a 222 Pattern that has completed and is still in play. it has completed its T1 setup so we can either see more downward movement to the target 2 or a retrace to the PRZ and then a push to the lowside for Target 2 to be hit. Seeing the indication of the weekly Candles i am epecting more downside rather than up! For the COT Data... This is reason i think we havent hit the pending orders of the Big Players, we have for the past few weeks seen the Commercials Increase their shorts but pice is still moving down. Now, for my COT fans Commercials go aganst the trend to lock in a particular rate or price to protect their physical profit made from day to day business. The commercial Shorts have increased their positions by 10k orders and the net data will be displayed later. The non-commercials are still buying from the Commercials but were not seeing any movement to support these numbers. Now, Unless we are seeing some major COT Manipulation by opening orders and quicly closing them before they get filled is one way, or the side im willing to say is more likely is that we havent filled the orders yet and price is still drifting aimlessly. I assume once we start filling these orders we will see some major volatility and start moving in the right direction which would support more downward movement for a cheaper price before we go up COT Net Data Commercials: Current (162,540) // Previous (155,035) Non-Commercials: Current = 118,448 // Previous = 117,132 Again, i think we will see some downturn based on the techincals then we will hit the pendings of the Non-Commercials in a support zone and then off to the races! So at the moment short then a major support level hit Pendings filled and then we move up for a... w h i l e!
TVC:EXYShort
by ARegularGuy