FXCM FAANG Basket Moves Into Bullish Stack On the DailyThe above chart show's the daily time frame of FXCM's FAANG Basket. We are using a triple EMA system to assess trend. The short-term green EMA > intermediate orange EMA and the intermediate orange EMA> the slow red EMA (blue rectangle). We note that NFLX reported last week and that the rest of the FAANGs (FB, AAPL, AMZN, GOOG) will report this week. Following their respective releases we will assess the basket's EMAs and their angle and separation. If these develop, it will be regarded as bullish, suggesting that a possible bullish momentum push may be underway.
Faangstocks
$NFLX - Weekly BreakoutNFLX, similarly to AMZN, likes to consolidate for long periods of time prior to large explosive moves.
If you're still risk on, keep Netflix on your radar. It's nearing a breakout on the weekly timeframe from a consolidation period just over a year in duration. Similar weekly breakouts of clean patterns would be ADBE and HD with their 1W Bull Flags leading to 33% and 21% gains on equity within the following 2 months AFTER breaking out.
As of right now there's UOA on $570 and $575 calls expiring next week.
This one is on high watch for me going into next week.
Warwick Gorman
OptionsSwing Analyst
FAANG Stocks: Ready To FALL? Hidden Fibonacci Pattern FormingTraders, FAANG (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google) share basket is forming a hidden pattern which can push these stocks down. However there are certain conditions that we must have. In this top down analysis we see how Fibonacci Confluence Pattern (FCP Pattern) is forming a zone which can create a massive trade opportunity.
If you are invested in any of these stocks then you must watch it so that you are aware of this. Also if you are looking for short opportunity because you think markets are over extended, then also you must be aware of this.
I also posted a similar pattern which is appearing on Netflix. Find that in the related ideas below.
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AMAZON Huge double top Very large double top here. The second peak occurred during the record breaking earnings, and still the stock rejected new highs and swung lower. If we see a trend line break, this can tank hard.
Inflation, Interest rates, supply chain problems, Fed tapering, are all risks to come. Upside seems very limited with the downside simply a lot steeper.
Why buy Palantir before it breaks out
Big data firms are the new social media platforms that see massive revenue growth.
The market needs to come to terms with the possibility that Palantir’s revenues can quintuple until FY 2025.
As the market understands Palantir’s long-term revenue and growth opportunity, the stock will appreciate.
I think this is the next company that needs to be added to the group of FAANG stocks. Big data analytics is big business for NYSE:PLTR as data volumes grow and more analytical capabilities are required to make sense of them. Palantir is set to grow revenues extremely fast over the next five years, and the stock is set to break out.
Their software is mostly used to analyze data and develop solutions to complex problems for businesses and governments that have to manage through tons of data… Palantir's software and predictive analytics capabilities can help predict COVID-19 outbreaks, analyze performance data, fight crime, assist companies with the migration of IT systems, support law enforcement, solve supply chain problems and support effective risk management practices.
One of the biggest entities that collect data are governments. They have endless databases containing information about their citizens, which is also why the government business is an important cornerstone for Palantir to leverage its growth.
Since government contracts are a lucrative source of revenue for Palantir, and the firm collected 56% of its revenues or $610 million from its government customers in FY 2021. In the 1st quarter 2021, Palantir saw its government revenues grow by 76% Y/Y to $208m, and it could crack the $1b annual government revenue threshold by FY 2022.
Besides still not being profitable Palantir's revenues are growing fast and have increased 84% from FY 2018 to FY 2020.
Their own revenue guidance appears to be carefully formulated as the company is still in a phase in which it enjoys revenue growth rates approximating 50%. These rates will normalize with time, but Palantir is set for a golden future.
Revenues could grow from $1.1b in FY 2021 to $5-$6b over the next five years, assuming gradually declining growth rates, which are historically validated.
As times goes by and customers, in both commercial and government area, experience Palantir's software platform, they tend to spend more money, which makes it ultimatly a trend in itself Instead of just signing on new clients and scaling, Palantir clearly has the option to maximize the customer lifetime value by increasing revenues per customer, which it does.
Revenues per customer increased a massive 29% Y/Y to $8.1m in the 1st quarter, which attests to Palantir's strong organic growth capability.
(Source: Palantir)
Potential Risks:
Since profits are still a thing of the future we should rather value them over expected sales than actual net margins. Also because the Plattform itself is so well programmed it will needs less R&D spending.
Another risk for shareholders touches on the subject of dilution. Palantir, as most tech companies, issues a lot of stock for compensation packages, which dilutes shareholders. Palantir's outstanding number of shares increased 80% from FY 2018 to FY 2020 and continued to rise in the 1st quarter 2021.
When the market understands Palantirs full potential and their recurring revenues YaY and that a government focus is a strength, not a weakness. Once the market does that, PLTR should break out and revalue higher.
AAPL pennant formationWhats up guys
Well we saw these pennants break out with google, facebook, microsoft. Apple is next.
Targeting a return to 140s by September with a test of upper trend line by July. Good for swings. Great for a long hold.
I would recommend getting in this. The bottom trend line has held multiple times now, this company only shows future potential for growth with how they are bringing chip design in house.
Microsoft hodling the last lineSince the COVID march 23rd sell-off, we have not closed below the 100ema for over 2 days.
There has been 7 successful pullbacks.
Tomorrow we could witness failed breakdown to shake weak hands placing tight stops, so I recommend entering with smaller positions that you usually do.
TESLA in 2020 vs APPLE in 2000, what if..I tried to compare the 2020 Telsa bull run vs apple during the dot com crisis
what if we are in an EV bubble that is comparable to the dot bubble?
could we predict how it will go this time?
as we saw in 2000, the internet was intended to become a great thing, but not yet.
what if the EV is intended to become a great thing, but not today? maybe in 20 years from now?
I suggest you look for other stocks related to EV, green energy, and all the trendis right now, and by comparing those with the FAANG in the dot com bubble.
FAANG's look weak recently. Netflix looks like best buy to me.Taking a look at FAANG's because it's something I should probably do more.
I can't make a post showing 6 charts, so I just picked the one I thought was the most interesting.
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Netflix got crushed pre earnings, and earnings were favorable (future is up?). I'm looking backwards at the repeating patterns, and everything points to me like it's a good buy following every down period.
I can buy like 5 or 6 shares so I might just do that, but I'd really like to see a green candle.
The stairway to profits. All reopening roads lead through GOOGLFrom the the whole year of 2020 Google didn't really keep up with its peers(even though 26% is awesome in my book)
I think we have a pretty good break out here, we have well defined support lines if it turns out to be a soft break out. I got into some calls expiring May 21, the position is already up 29%, gonna sell half at 33% and the rest I'm gonna let run. Feels like a lot of momentum on this name. The position has moved very fast, beware only invest what you don't need right back, get a number in mind and stop out. Always feels good taking profits, still trying to figure out how to let them run more. Thanks folks!
GOOG ... We still early on this Triangle!I believe GOOG is a highly interesting setup to the upside at the moment... The pullback seen in FAANGS since the NASDAQ100 made its ATH in Mid-February has barely tickled this stock... This means the bulls are pushing it and momentum to the upside is perhaps much stronger than that of its peers... Moving on to business... Elliot Wave Analysis is my specialty... I go as deep and detailed as one can go in my wave analysis... Wedges / Triangles (you name it) are my signature setups... GOOG is carving out a very convincing Triangle that is just starting to break to the upside.
STOPS should be placed @2043… If the market breaks this level, my analysis becomes invalid… I will not go into detail as to why at the moment… I’d rather go deep in regards to the target price.
In regards to the TARGET, several things need to be pointed out… The NASDAQ100 and therefore, the FAANGS, are a bit risky to be traded to the upside at the moment… The market has been completely spooked by rising yields, which have specifically damaged the FAANGS in the investor’s community… Furthermore; there are certain times where bullish Triangles generate a very impulsive move to the upside, only to be followed by a sharp decline… One needs to remain humble on this trade… Other details could be mentioned, but it should be enough for now, so I’ll go ahead and specify the TARGET recommendation:
2320 should be the first target in upcoming days/weeks… 2400 could be reached and lastly I can see the market reaching as far as 2500… This are all Fib projections… For me personally, even 2320 is way too greedy, given the trading environment we are in… After breaking the 2153 level towards ATH, anything is possible… Perhaps booking profits early in the game, around 2200 and then trailing the stop could be the best way to go… Hope it helps and you have a solid trading.
S&P Further thoughts(a) is the 50MA, it can be seen to be curling upwards
and the comparison point (a) shows this ends in a bearish outcome
(b) is a similar points on TSI where I expect a reoccurrence of the pattern in oval to occur, likely acting bearishly.
As i have said before, assess the situation based on impact
2008 banking crisis the market collapsed
2020 COVID? Upward movement seems unjustified.
Here is a chart that further explains that philosophy.
I know the charts are kinda similar but I wanted to restate this for those unaware..
Amazon 20 days ruleLook to the scenario of 20 days rule, it's going UP or DOWN accuracy in trend for 20 days.
Now, I expect that the volatility will increase, even double to 10 days, but with less movement between 3%-5% range.
After increasing volatility, and in next 20 days, with movements like /\/\/\/\/\/\, than in the middle of february, high expectancy of movements to 2650$ price level.
AAPL can see new lows before the election & earnings $105 TARGETApple stock has been lagging compared to a lot of techs and it's influence on the Nasdaq market is pulling a lot of other stocks lower. We do have earnings coming up at the end of the month of October so that should be a very indicative sign of where this market wants to go.
The 100-day EMA is super attractive for institutional buying and price is not far away from it, we could see the price tag that area and then see it inch back up.
We have to wait for the election to pass to get a more decisive and concise move in either direction. There was a lot of downside volume at the beginning of the drop was strong but it's stalling out so it won't be a clear drop to $105 but slower.
Overall why we think this is moving to the downside is the most recent high at $125 was due to news that was sold off very easily. This is a much lower high than the $137 we saw post-split. This is indicative of weak buying trying to come into this market, if we see a lower low through $105, that confirms the downtrend.
The $105 level has to hold for the medium term longs to push through $125 and eventually into $135.
This trade idea is for educational purposes only, not to be used as investment or trading advice.
Largest Sentiment Swing in a Decade
Non-Commercial Traders have had a change of heart after closing the largest short position on the NASDAQ in more than a decade. Net positions including options from the CFTC COT Weekly Data now stand at 19,512. This is as a result of short positions falling from 142k to 54k.
Traders, mostly retail traders have ploughed back capital into call options, used to position for gains in share prices.
Call options for the FAANG stocks have recently increased with the put - call ratio being at it's lowest since March.
However, there's weakness showing in the equity markets this Monday as the NQ1! failed to break a strong resistance on the 4H Chart hence unable to continue higher.
I'll be monitoring price action and look out for news that might influence the price. The 0.382 fibonacci level is an area of interest.
FAANG Companies - Analysis Combing the largest market cap companies within Nasdaq - Mentioned as the FAANGs
Includes: Facebook, Netflix, Google, Apple and Amazon.
There are greatest moves within the markets it's usually when it's the earning season, happens 4 times a yr - December, March, June, and September. That isn't my focus for now...
The technical aspect of Nasdaq at this current time, from the post I posted yesterday - Double bottom, keep in mind it's really struggling to get past the key area of 11600 area. If we do past that Nasdaq could head higher, I've taken 60% of my profits - which this is why I like to check FAANG companies. It could be forming bearish flag or a right shoulder. We as trades aren't here to predict the market spot on we reflect our actions towards what price gives us, at this moment of time, I would wait till confirmed and if we break lower I expect Nasdaq index to pull back. However, if we go below the areas of: 5250.50 - Further bearish movement. Looking at 200 EMA is a nice support area.
Fundamentals to keep in mind: Stimulus if that gets confirmed - Equities could edge higher = Lower DXY.
A good interesting aspect as well to look into would be the VIX and 10yr they've had great moves this week.
Be careful trading or adding new position as we have NFP tomorrow.
Hope you've all had a great trading week so far.
Here's a key tip for today - Create your belief system within your trading - Believe in yourself
Remember: Just a trade idea, not a recommendation.
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