FACEBOOK @ 30 min. Chart @ Basic formation & lines after BrexoduBasic triangle-formation after Brexodus,
`cause on the referendum the share created a temporarly low.
131.96 (2016-09-07): (d) new alltime high - after old alltime (b) before
128.31 (2016-07-28): (b) 2nd high after consolidation after complete trend-reversal-formation (while brexodus)
127.95 (2016-09-23): Friday (last trading) Closed
123.06 (2016-07-21): (c) 3rd low beetwen (a) & (b) in august
119.31 (2016-08-24): (a) 1st low after consolidation after complete trend-reversal-formation (while brexodus)
128.60 (2016-09-23): (bad news)
127.95 (2016-09-23): Friday (last trading) Closed
127.32 (2016-09-23): (bad news)
if facebook climb back above 128.31 (b) the next move could be in october to new alltim ehighs - even above 131.96 (d) at least.
Short-term bears are in town also
131.96 (2016-09-07): (1) last alltime high
130.71 (2016-09-09): (2) 1st temproarly low after alltime high
127.95 (2016-09-23): Friday (last trading) Closed
125.74 (2016-09-22): (3) 1st high - even after temporarly low
if facebook is etablishing a downside trend, the share could fall until 130.71 (2) at least.
but at 1st facebook should breakUP/DOWN at first
- to etablish something like a trend to the UP/DOWN side ...
129.94 (2016-09-06): resistance trendline - temporarly high
129.92 (2016-09-09): resistance trendline - temporarly high
129.91 (2016-09-16): resistance trendline - temporarly high
129.06 (2016-09-15): resistance trendline - temporarly high
129.18 (2016-09-16): resistance trendline - temporarly high
129.35 (2016-09-21): resistance trendline - temporarly high
128.98 (2016-09-23): 1 Week SMA
127.95 (2016-09-23): Friday (last trading) Closed
127.87 (2016-09-23): 4 Week SMA
126.83 (2016-09-02): support trendline - temporarly low
126.72 (2016-08-29): support trendline - temporarly low
126.65 (2016-09-13): support trendline - temporarly low
126.07 (2016-08-09): support trendline - temporarly low
125.03 (2016-08-31): support trendline - temporarly low
Take care
& analyzed it again
- it`s always your choice ...
Best regards
4XSetUps
Facebooklong
FACEBOOK @ 4 ATH`s this Year, back to (the future) to the 5th !?132.01 alltime high until now
128.22 3rd temporary ATH this year 2016
121.12 2nd temporary ATH this year 2016
117.61 1st temporary ATH this year 2016
108.05 low while brexit - excactly on upside trendline
89.21 upside trendline - based on yearly lows 2015 & 2016
71.88 upside trendline - based on yearly lows 2015 & 2016
Use 2,3 negative trading days as an entry trading capability
- `cause "the trend is yor friend"! And the market seems to buy mark zuckerbergs company story and outlook.
Take care
& analyzed it again
- it`s always your choice ...
Best regards
4XSetUps
FACEBOOK'S DAYS R NUMBERED.FACEBOOK'S DAYS R NUMBERED. Even thought it may well make some weak new high but probably not that high from the previous high. They are at the top channel of parallel trading line. I marked them as Red and Light green. But also I drew a solid black like which crosses the red line and creates a triangle. Once you see the triangle has been broken FB will be weak and good time to short for long term holdings. The next support line is light green line and once it breaks that one it will be a free fall zone. You can add up more once they crosses the light green line but just be careful other traders like you may come to short it and you get a short squeeze ez.
www.forbes.com
LONG FACEBOOK: 7% PULLBACK & SOLID FUNDAMENTALSWanted to make this post as FB as opened up a chance for a lower risk entry point.
FB has pulled back 6% which is the first time in months that it has given any $ away to the market - hence i recommend buying and holing until 1$20.
Trading strategy
I suggest buying in a pyramid, and adding more long FB if it continues to fall e.g. 1@114 2@111 3@10 6 etc
As FB is such a strong stock in terms of net income and revenue (grew 250% yoy in april) and holds a monopoly in the social media market.
Volatility
- Vols have been trading higher for FB in recent days, with Implieds trading much higher (26% vs 14%) than HV possibly inferring that the market is expecting further pull backs BUT the above trading strategy is built for a scenario like this (and actually is more profitable is FB continues to fall)
- One thing to note is that it isnt really shocking for FB Imp Vol to be trading higher, since price falls = higher vols in general - and i may add that implieds are still only trading at the 40th percentile , i consider 80th to be extreme/ worrying so we have some cushion before we get to that.
- Finally FB risk reversals are trading at +0.8, meaning in the options market we are seeing more demand for calls at these levels - this is a bullish bias for the spot stock market also as it is an indicator of overall sentiment.
Volume
- FB volume has spiked predictably, as we would expect in a falling market, but it still trades about the average so i think Supply/Demand is balanced so it is safe to enter.
-I would like to see volume trade below average in the coming days to help give us a bullish push but i am not worried if not - infact i would prefer some further downside since FB hasnt given us much for months.
Technicals
- We have a nice support handle at 113, 110, 108 - clear re-entry points for me. FB ATR is trading below average which is good meaning price volatility isnt too stochastic, and this is just a controlled pullback.
- It also looks like FB is just filling the earnings gap it created in April. The actual candles formed have traded about the median, with equal wick/ range lengths higher/lower, which also suggests this downside doesnt have too much momentum, as i would expect to see the price close at the lows if this was the case.
- Also as you can see FB is trading at the -2SD level on the 4h, which historically is a good level of support and another + for entry. We have also just crossed the 60 day VWMA meaning that FB is trading at a cheap price which is good for entry and a higher probability trade.