SPX Weekly Clear signal= We're in BEAR MARKET. SHORT THE RALLIESSPX weekly chart has given clear signals in the past with regard to overall changes in trend.
- The 2008 recession was signaled by a clear bearish divergence on the weekly.
- The 2009 bottom and reversal into a 9 year bull market was signaled by a strong bullish divergence on the weekly.
- When many thought the market was crashing in late 2015/early 2016, a strong bullish divergence showed that selling momentum was done and that bullish continuation would resume.
OPERATING ASSUMPTION:
The large bearish divergence on the monthly chart formed between the January and October highs indicates WE ARE IN A BEAR MARKET UNTIL PROVEN OTHERWISE
PLAN:
1. Short every rally (currently 4 straight green weekly candles) until bullish divergence forms.
2. Close shorts when bull divergence forms on 1D or 4H charts.
3. Continue operating under assumption of a bear market until bullish divergence forms again on weekly chart (like 2009).
4. Go net long on index funds after said divergence is observed and confirmed.
Failedrally
BTC Update! Bulls continue to fail at rallyingLast chart I was cautious of taking any bullish positions as there was some increasing bear volume and I was having my doubts the bulls would hold the prior low of $3869 and give us a higher low. They did fail and we fell to a lower low on this move which now sits at $3732.
The positive was from there the bulls did make a slight higher high on 4 hour chart. Beating out $4018 and getting up to $4035. Some would argue $4018 wasn't a true high to watch for and really it is up at $4185 or $4277. I am perfectly fine with that line of thinking simply because these recent bull rallies (really short bounces in reality) since our high of $4415 have all been extremely short lived.
Either way, from $4035, we are now back to falling again and seeing if the bulls can stop these lower lows from repeating. $3732 is the level they'd love to hold but once again, having my doubts and continue to happily sit in cash this week. Bulls really need to start proving they can sustain a bounce for more than 4-12 hours otherwise it is just giving the bears plenty of time to load into short positions and absolutely no rush to cover any open shorts.
Will continue to check in each day on chart and anything jumps out will try and get an updated chart posted. Hope everyone has a nice week and continues to protect that capital!
Just My 2 Sats!
Darth Vader finds your lack of faith disturbingI'm ashamed. Embarrassed. I don't want to tell people I dabbled in crypto.
The main reason is the weakness and lack of faith within the crypto community itself.
It hamstrings itself at every opportunity; shorts constantly, can't sustain bullish activity for more than 5 contiguous minutes.
What are you doing?? Collecting 1% and day trading.
Recent studies show that the amount of crypto press multiplies in times of negative activity , and despite claims of market manipulation, the far greater threat are your weak , trembling hands that hit the sell button every time you see green.
Pathetic.
If crypto fails it is because it failed s a cooperative community.
The worlds premier financial services disavowed.
Of course this is a threat to government , and they may play a role , but it is small; crypto is still of and by the people involved. Failure to maintain BTC above 4k when an ASIAN session set it up to get there is also pathetic. They (those involved in mining) have had to sell machines for scrap but have more confidence in an overall positive outcome than the trembling westerner.
Your kids still want crypto for Christmas. Kids tend to be pretty smart , being not far removed from education, at this point taught coding in school, and may have greater insight than the fools destroying the concept of something anti-globalization.
What is especially galling is that the weakest hands are the ones otherwise subject to a fractional reserve banking system in countries like the U.S. for example, that are trillions of dollars in debt.
There is a day coming worse than '08. And when it does the government will bail out banks again , because the banks are so greedy they lend out money that doesn't rightly belong to them , and when the machine breaks the Federal reserve PRINTS MONEY.
WAKE UP AND DO SOmETHING!!!!! RAISE THE BAR FOR ONCE. No, 2017 is unlikely to repeat in that it will not be a parabolic rise in just a few months, but rather a slower yet permanent rise if you would simply allow it to happen. By you I mean EVERYONE involved in finances at all who can see their reflection in the mirror.
If this was a team , you went undefeated in '17 only to lose every game in '18. I'm the guy yelling in the locker room , because I cannot and do not understand such behavior and do not want to.
This IS a community , and while everyone wants to make money , it is painfully obvious that the self inflicted wounds just keep on coming.
YOU just failed to break a 4k barrier for BTC - forget metrics that is ALL psychology , and it happened because you short sold and ran. Enjoy your short term capital gains tax.
Finally, why in the f%$% does every other major coin have to be directed by Bitcoin? Are people just too stupid to understand the differences in fundamentals and use cases?? One ring to rule them all, and it's that one?? Equally pathetic.
Tax headlines scare you off?? You suck.
Bad press? You suck. Do some research . The bad press is a ploy by big money to get YOU to sell, you , the guy who gets hurt , so that the absurdly wealthy can buy in cheaper.
Fortis Fortuna Adiuvat.
** I am not a financial advisor and the above should be construed as a rant.**