USDJPY = Win. Finally? I have shit winrate, but at least this trade is "logical", and has followed the trading plan lol.
TRADING SPECS:
BIAS = DOWNTREND
NARRATIVE = 4HR BEARISH PD ARRAY(S/R FLIP+FVG)
CONTEXT = RESPECTED PREMIUM ARRAY + A Wave
ENTRY = SELL STOP ORDER @ A WAVE LOW (RUN ON LIQUIDITY). Nearly got SL'd. OPTIMAL ENTRY WOULD HAVE BEEN THE BEARISH FVG AFTER THE "4HR PREMIUM ARRAY REBALANCE" INSIDE CONTEXT AREA. THERE WAS A SHARP TURN IN THERE SOMEWHERE BUT I DIDN'T WAIT FOR THAT.
RISK MANAGEMENT = N/A(?) JUST LET TRADE PLAY OUT. BUT SL WAS INSIDE THE ORDERFLOW LEG(?)
Here's how it went:
1. Assessed Day Bias - price was downtrending. checked orderflow and candle science for this shit
2. Assessed Current Price "Intention" - price only does two things: seek liquidity, and rebalance fair value.
When I plotted my Key Levels, price was at a point where it was just done seeking liquidity(support + poc was swept) and it was reversing.
I see an S/R Flip + FVG area. If price goes here, that means price has rebalanced fair value.. so, logic dictates that it will reverse again to SEEK LIQUIDITY.
When I came back to this chart again, price has already rebalanced fair value, has respected the S/R Flip + FVG, and has started reversing down.
3. Picked Out a Target - I picked out something realistic. Here is where indicators/tools come in.
Instead of using my confluence mix(POC+FVG+OTE pd array) as entry points,
"I just used it as a target since... price has already rebalanced fair value at the higher TF, and it's already going down, so it's probably going to seek liquidity on the other side. It's most probable target before price may or may not do something else is the FVG+POC+OTE AREA."
My choice of liquidity category was the Previous Day Session nPOC. Along with the FVG and OTE, it was a strong "magnet", especially considering that price has finished seeking buy side liquidity and therefore the price's next target are the liquidities below.
Wow, this makes so much sense to me now.
Price always intend to bounce from opposite liquidities, from higher timeframe to lower timeframe... so...
4. Waited for PA that will Deliver Towards Target - I think my entry here was sloppy, the weakest part of this trade. But it made sense, and it still worked anyway.
I just found a sting candle down(the A wave) after tapping the (S/R Flip+FVG).. I set a sell stop limit on the exact low of that candle.
LOGIC was, if price pushed down below that sting, especially with a strong fvg, it would validate the RESPECT of the (SR FLIP+FVG), and it would continue going down(an invalidation of a long continuation idea)... probably to, again, seek liquidity below.
Reason why I think my entry was sloppy, is because I did not validate the trade idea first. I didn't wait for that sting candle to get "run on(liquidity)" first. I think in order to validate it, I would have waited for the sting to become a run on liquidity area first, and then a second bearish fvg candle close to confirm downtrend. It would have been too late and the profit would have been too small at that point.
5. Put SL at the Orderflow Leg Swing High - If price was really not intending to continue going up, it wouldn't have gone here, which it didn't. I nearly got stopped out, like the other trades I had on sunday and monday.
-------------
Here's the pattern that I keep seeing though, when price makes a valid HIGH(like in this case, the SRFLIP+FVG rebalance), price will attempt to go here atleast twice with a WICK, but will still make lower highs. Usually, those second and third wicks will form as if it's going to take the liquidities at those wicks, but it will just take out the CANDLE BODY HIGHS... So take note of these next time.
When price sweeps a higher timeframe FVG/LIQUIDITY, mark out the candle body closes as TARGET LIQUIDITIES, not the wicks. If a downtrend is valid, it will only take out the body close liquidities. I will make a diagram to help make this make sense lmfao.
-------------
I feel like a mad scientist at this point... endlessly trying to see the actual logic in the market. Not the probabilities of patterns playing out, but the CAUSES and EFFECTS.
I think I'm close to finding the pattern within the pattern... or the message hidden in the patterns(Arcane reference, anyone?).
But I think the two things I have found thanks to Arjo is...
"Price only does two things: 1. Seeking Liquidity 2. Rebalancing Fair Value
and Higher TF = Rebalancing Fair Value <-> Lower TF = Seeking Liquidity"
and
"The Higher the Timeframe, The Stronger the Timeframe"
Like... the market isn't random. I think these two things are the core principles of trading.
Because with these two ideas, you don't need a strategy. You need to UNDERSTAND this. And the strategy can be adapted to whatever you see on the chart.
You open EURUSD, and you see that price is on a downtrend, and it has recently rebalanced the bearish fair value gap on the 4HR? You know what price will do next. It will continue going down to seek liquidity below. So, with that information, what will you look for? How will you enter? Where will you set your entry point, your stoploss, and where is your target?
You open USDCAD, and you see that price is on an uptrend, it has already rebalanced fair value below, has made a bullish choch+FVG, and has respected that choch+FVG on a lower timeframe. You know it will seek buy side liquidity next. So how will you enter? Where will you place your stoploss? Where's your exit?
-------
Now, if only I can translate this knowledge into actual consistency in trading, I can finally make money.
But I guess doing the journal is great. I'm consistently at the 25-30% winrate. So with this understanding.. Maybe I can slowly push that winrate up over time.
I think mechanically, the trade entries i had a year ago and now was the same(choch+POC+FVG+OTE), but now I have the understanding of why it may work or why it won't work, and when do I apply it so I increase the odds of winning. So that's something.
Before, I didn't know why it did or did not work. But now, I know.
I can use this info moving forward to increase my odds.
-------
OH WAIT YEAH, IF I KNOW WHAT THE MARKET DOES AND WHY IT DOES WHAT IT DOES, THEN I WILL BE ABLE TO REFINE MY ENTRIES, BECAUSE NOW I KNOW WHY AND HOW I'M MAKING MY MISTAKES. HELL YEAH.
-------
I'm just not sure about whether I can stick to one entry strategy now, or if I should, or I won't trade something that looks doable under my principles... because I've studied everything, and it makes sense now. lmfao.
-------
if people are reading this(up to this point lol that was a long ash read), then thank you. Reply with your thoughts if ever.
Alright thanks bye
Fair
Catching the Wave: BFIC/USDT Trade SetupWelcome to my trade idea for BITMART:BFICUSDT (BFIC/USDT), where I aim to capitalize on technical signals.
For our entry strategy, we have identified two potential points:
First Entry: Our initial entry point is at 9.8115. This decision is supported by a bullish 1-hour FAIR Value Gap (FVG) signal.
Second Entry: We will consider a second entry opportunity at 9.5002.
To mitigate risk, our stop-loss (SL) for both entries combined is set at 9.1682. Additionally, it's advisable to practice dollar-cost averaging (DCA) if the price retraces to 9.2716, further minimizing potential losses.
Regarding our target price (TP), we're eyeing the all-time high (ATH) at 39.9. While it's natural to anticipate when this level might be reached, it's essential to remain flexible. You have the option to take profits before the full TP is achieved, ensuring you lock in gains along the way.
In summary, we're riding BFIC/USDT with technical finesse, keeping our eyes on the charts. Stick to the plan, stay flexible, and let's ride those waves to profit town! 🚀📈
Like (boost), follow, comment and share this idea!!!
For the optimal TradingView experience, upgrade now to unlock the platform's full potential: www.tradingview.com
Has anyone looked at the monthly charts?After reviewing the monthly chart, I made an observation: Bitcoin has indeed filled the monthly fair value gap (FVG), which explains the recent deceleration in momentum. Now, it remains to be seen whether we will experience a breakthrough or a retracement to our monthly discount zone. Coincidentally, within the discount zone, I've identified a monthly Balanced Price Range (BPR), indicating overlapping fair value gaps. Additionally, there's a breaker block present. With these elements in play, the potential for a significant move exists, potentially catalyzed by a news event.
Fair Value Gap Trading StrategyFair Value Gap Trading Strategy
To implementing a fair value gap as a trading strategy you need to understand these three basic components of this trading strategy.
Time
Liquidity Hunt
Market Structure Shift
Fair Value Gap
Let’s begin by discussing the importance of time in trading. According to ICT Trader, time is considered to be fractal, meaning that what happens on higher time frames is reflected in lower time frames if studied in the proper context.
In this context, fractal refers to the idea that patterns and behaviors observed on longer time frames, such as daily or weekly charts, can be seen in shorter time frames, like hourly or minute charts.
By studying price action and market behavior across different time frames, traders can gain a deeper understanding of market dynamics and potentially identify profitable trading opportunities.
Time indeed holds significant importance in the fair value gap trading strategy, particularly when it comes to identifying favorable trading setups. Despite the forex market being open 24 hours a day, not all times present ideal conditions for executing fair value gap trades. That’s where the concept of ICT Kill Zones comes into play.
ICT Kill Zones
ICT Kill Zones refer to specific time periods during the day that have been observed to offer higher probability trading opportunities. These zones are associated with the entry of smart money, which are institutional or banks who have the ability to influence market direction.
In short, ICT Kill Zones correspond to specific time periods during the day that are particularly relevant for trading activities. These zones include the London Open, London Close, New York Open, and New York Close.
Traders using the fair value gap trading strategy often focus on these times as they tend to offer higher probability trading setups. The ICT Kill Zones are associated with the entry of smart money and can provide enhanced opportunities for traders to capitalize on market movements. By aligning their trading activities with these specific time periods, traders aim to improve their chances of success.
Liquidity in FVG Trading Strategy
Liquidity in the market often takes the form of buy stops and sell stops.market makers or smart money intentionally trap retail traders by manipulating prices to trigger their stop losses.
The idea is that they move the market in one direction to hunt for stop losses, causing retail traders to place orders in the false direction and set their stop losses at key levels. After the stop loss hunt, the market reverses in the opposite direction, benefiting the smart money.
Let’s analyze the above chart from a retail trader’s perspective. When we observe the chart, we notice that the price levels between 44240 and 44280 have proven to be strong resistance in the past.
Based on this observation, many retail traders might place their selling pending orders to anticipate of a price reversal at these levels. To manage their risk, they would likely set their stop loss orders just above this resistance area.
What is done by market makers or smart money,they could manipulate the market by initially pushing the price upward, deliberately triggering the stop loss orders placed by retail traders. This action would cause some retail traders to think that a breakout is occurring and prompt them to place buying orders while setting their stop losses at levels below the resistance area.
Once the stop loss orders have been hunted and triggered, the market makers or smart money may then reverse the price direction.
Enhancing Trading Success with the Fair Value Gap Entry Strategy
After a liquidity hunt on a higher time frame, you suggest switching to lower time frames such as 15 minutes, 5 minutes, 3 minutes, or even 1 minute to identify certain patterns that may emerge following the stop loss hunt. These patterns include:
1.Sudden or sharp price movements: Following the liquidity hunt, you may observe rapid and significant price fluctuations on the lower time frames.
This sharp movement causing market structure shift and provide an extra confluence.
2. Fair value gap (FVG): Look for gaps between the current price and the fair value of the asset. The fair value represents the equilibrium price based on various factors. Identify instances where the market price deviates significantly from this fair value.
3. Entry position based on the Fair Value Gap strategy: Once you spot a fair value gap pattern after the liquidity hunt, you can consider taking a position in anticipation of the market filling that gap. The expectation is that the market will eventually return to the fair value price.
It’s important to carefully train your eyes to recognize these patterns after a liquidity hunt and patiently wait for the market to come back and fill the identified gap. Once you have identified a suitable entry position, you can place your stop loss order above the first candle to manage your risk.
Please note that implementing such strategies requires careful analysis, experience, and a deep understanding of the specific market you are trading. It’s crucial to conduct thorough research, backtest your strategy, and consider other factors that may influence price movements before making any trading decisions.
$GBPUSD - Sterling Needs More Attractive Price for Buyers *SMT**SMT* = Smart Money Theory = everything you think that is not retail related to trading. First, SMT does not believe that triangles, wedges , trendlines , channels, harmonics, etc. has any effect on how price reacts. I'm sorry, but you won't convince me that Tesla or Bitcoin knows it has created a triangle and that it knows how to react to that? It does and will remember price levels, that's it. The second is to recognize that the price is not random, it is set by an algorithm controlled by those that control the asset. The Third thing to remember is price will do 2 things 1) move toward attacking where there is Liquidity (Equal Highs, Equal Lows, phantom Trendlines , etc.) and 2) Move toward Imbalance (Fair Value Gaps, Liquidity Voids. Open Gaps) That's the basics. The rest is very unique in the vocabulary you need to have and the concepts that wrap around these ideas.*
As the price of the pound has fell to record lows this year, During the london session it dropped a filled a daily fair value gap. However it has not returned tp the starting gap price to completely fill in the imbalance.
Sterling is usually a sure bet when thinking long term VS the USD, it's going to need to drop a little more for Investors to feel safe with their money in the Sterling again. With the current wave and the dollar moving up, The pound Should be heading down toward below a current liquidity level and the bulloish order Block.
I may have already missed the best entrance, and it could just be going straight down in here, but I have my traders hunch it will pull up during the US session and fall last minute. This trade may take a while to play out not just two days like my EURUSD trade did.
However to get there it will have to create an illusion that it will buy during the NY SESSION and instead will fall into next week possibly.
Or it could create equal lows giving the illusion of support and the up into the red and drop
OANDA:GBPUSD
TVC:DXY
BET:GBPUSD1!
CME_MINI:M6B1!
GBPUSD Intraday BiasGBPUSD
Aug 10 1145H GMT+8
Bias is still Bearish. I expect Dollar index to go higer after US Core Inflation release 0830H EST.
4H Descending Channel is still intact
NY Session yesterday produced a 1H SZ (Supply Zone) and FVG (Fair Value GaP). I'm expecting London Session to fill the gap.
I expect London to take out Sellside Liquidity (Sell Stops) before the rally up the 1H FVG.
If the RR for a long setup is good, take it. Otherwise, wait for a better shorting opportunity at the 1H FVG/SZ. Target is an Longterm Lower Low.
Area to look for a Short?Back in to a Supply zone where price fell sharply, possible that there could be a reaction again from here and if so some Imbalance left behind on the 4hr to target?
By no means is this an area to blindly just click sell, use lower timeframes to identify a trend change and manage your risk :)
FAIR News AnalysisI predict with the best probability the future trends, my ideas are reserved for the experienced trader. #UniversTrader
FX Twilight ZoneGoing to publish a bunch of findings discovered as a result of extensive technical research on the FX market. Can't disclose too many details as I also have some serious losses to catch up with.
Losses not to have been incurred completely as fair as one would think, and it's not your broker you are up against!
USD bulls have a bunch of scripts running pushing everything they can out of the floating market to keep USD afloat .. overlooking one simple thing with a huge impact..
So much for a free floating market.
To clarify here, if you are a USD bear you are most likely not fighting your broker or MM. That is all lies (make believe) by the USD bulls. During the course of my research I discovered how competition is evolving and I witnessed a free truly floating market probably less than ten times. While I've been on the charts 24x5 for almost 3 years now, most of the time it is informed traders pushing price as soon a trade comes in. Ever wondered why you are always on the losing end somehow?
How do I know this? Without disclosing too much of my trade secrets, let's say I developed ways to distinct a free floating market from a manipulated one.
The TradingView Forex chat room is used extensively to spread random wisdom made up be anyone about the FX market. Be aware!
Bitcoin Plays Like a Beautiful MelodyErr herrm.
I hate to boast, but you would too if you were this good. I hate to say it but Bitcoin is somewhat predictable.
How I wish I wasn't in slumberland while it played out its beautiful melody. I would have loved to savour every moment of its graceful descent.
If you are not already following me, then you would have missed out on my on-point analysis of its descending triangle trajectory. Well done if you are and if you took the time to read my ideas thoroughly and managed to find the link to that idea. Kudos to you if you took my advice.
Bitcoin played right into the devil's lair and hit the mark spot on as predicted on the private chart I published for Purple Crypto Premium (above).
It broke easily through the base of the triangle, shot right down into the price range surrounding the end of sub wave 4 of this super cycle and is now hanging around the 0.5 fibb (8500 for BTC/USD and 8578 for BTC/USDT), exactly as predicted.
Papa Bear lets out a big growl. "Enough already", he says, crashing while testing the 1/2 trajectory on the Gann fan, then retreating back to safe haven. The ease with which it broke the triangle through to a previous fair value should open eyes, if it hasn't already.
But is it over? I don't believe it is just yet.
Where to from here? My analysis on Papa Bear Heading Down is still in play. For it to be able to start sub wave 4 of this super cycle, it needs to head back down to said levels in that analysis. It will (should) return to 7800 (USDT) at the least. Whether that happens gradually or not, only Big Brother knows. If I am to guess his desire to maintain a 1/1 Gann trajectory, it would be the former.
The most positive thing you can take out of this is to learn who not to follow. That's right...all the amateurs who said the triangle would break up.
Stay tuned...
(PAPA BEAR'S FUTURE PROJECTION applies in its ensuing A-B-C corrective wave)
FUNBTC 1HR 1 more up maybe???W2 retrace almost .786 therefor w4 will retrace a lot less.
stop loss .110 sat
******just a guy who is playing*****
Fun-fair public release in March!Hi guys, We see that bitcoin is going sideways so that means that the alt coins have a change to grow in bitcoin value!
Fun-fair will have is public release around March and you also see this in the chart!
So hold tight in your seats because we will have a take of soon!
Like and comment under my chart!
Adioos
$FAIR loonking for breakout for 150% profit$FAIR looks like it's going to go at least to the ATH in the next 2 weeks
FunFair (FUN) - This looks beautiful, take a look!Starting an online casino is complicated and expensive, and that’s before you try to attract players and earn their trust. Using blockchain technology to simplify setup and reduce costs, FunFair enables anyone, anywhere to run their own casino.
The FunFair platform also offers unrivaled levels of transparency and player protection, and is set to open up gaming globally. This technology has the potential to profoundly change the gaming world, and FunFair is the first global gaming brand to unlock that potential.
Aim for target, if goes below red line, im out and will wait for next sign
Good luck!
FUNFAIR (FUN) - Here is the next MATRIX target for this chart.I see this chart hit this target with no problems.
I will keep this chart updated
TARGET: 0.00000550