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Fairvaluegap

Fair Value for S&P 500, Price Targets for the next 12 monthsGoing into next week I calculate fair value for the S&P 500 to be between 5,400 and 4,800 with an average target of 5,100 over the next 12 months. The low end of the range factors in any chance that we see the economy creep to a stagnant point over the next 12 months. If by some miracle the economy should continue to experience above average GDP growth, the S&P 500 could go as high as 6,300 in the year ahead Investors should be cautious about making any large stock purchases if we continue to see unemployment rise and GDP growth slow. Holding off for better buying opportunities is for the best with the S&P 500 above the 5,400 level. The market is likely to continue to see downward pressure. Right now, earnings growth projections are lofty and likely to be revised downward over the next 6 months.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by D1Finance
Trading EURUSD | Judas Swing Strategy 12/08/2024We ended last week on a positive note, with four trades taken and three big wins on #EURUSD, #GBPUSD and #NZDUSD. This success has heightened our anticipation for the opportunities this week may present. We began our trading day at 8:25 EST by marking the zones for the Judas Swing strategy. This is a fundamental part of the checklist and cannot be skipped. After an hour and 5 minutes, there was a sweep of liquidity at the high of the zone, indicating we will be looking for potential selling opportunities this trading session. Following the liquidity sweep, there was a break of structure (BOS). Now, we simply need to wait for price to retrace into the fair value gap (FVG) that was created before entering a sell position. Although we had a bias for the trading session, we do not rush into every selling opportunity. Instead, we wait for a Break of Structure (BOS) on the sell side. The price leg that establishes this BOS should leave behind a Fair Value Gap (FVG), and price must retrace into this FVG before we consider executing a trade using this strategy. After 30 minutes a bullish candle filled the FVG, indicating that upon its close, we could execute our trade as all the prerequisites for entry on our checklist were satisfied. Our position was profitable for approximately 15 minutes before plunging us into a drawdown. During this drawdown period, we remained composed because we had a solid risk management strategy and only risked what we could afford to lose. We allocated just 1% of our trading account to this trade, targeting a 2% return. After 30 minutes into the trade, our stop loss was triggered, resulting in a 1% loss of our trading account. It's important to note that incurring losses is a normal part of trading. This particular strategy has a win rate of approximately 50%. However, with a positive risk-reward ratio of 1:2, adhering to this strategy can lead to consistent profitability in the long run.
by CleoFinance
Trading NZDUSD | Judas Swing Strategy 06/08/2024Every trader relishes ending the trading week positively, and that was precisely our experience last week. The Judas Swing strategy produced two trades, one on EURUSD and the other on GBPUSD, both of which turned out being winners. This positive experience has heightened our excitement for the possibilities that this week may bring. As is customary, at 8:25 AM EST, we commenced the day by reviewing the essential items on our Judas Swing strategy checklist, which comprises: - Setting the timezone to New York time - Confirming we're on the 5-minute timeframe - Marking the trading period from 00:00 - 08:30 - Identifying the high and low of the zone After 25 minutes, there was a sweep of liquidity at the low of the zone, indicating we will be looking for potential buying opportunities this trading session. Following the liquidity sweep, there was a break of structure (BOS). Now, we simply need to wait for price to retrace into the fair value gap (FVG) that was created before entering a buy position. The subsequent candle entered the Fair Value Gap, indicating that upon its close, we could execute our trade as all the prerequisites for entry on our checklist were satisfied. This position barely experienced any drawdown, as it became profitable 25 minutes after executing the trade. We risked a mere 1% of our trading account, aiming for a 2% return from this trade. All that remained was to wait patiently, having already accepted the outcome of our trade, be it a win or a loss. Based on the data collected for NZDUSD, we anticipate an average trade duration of six hours and fifteen minutes. After 45 minutes, our Take Profit was triggered, and our patience paid off as we hit our target on NZDUSD, resulting in a 2% gain from a 1% risk on the trade.
by CleoFinance
Trading EURUSD | Judas Swing Strategy 30/07/2024Risk management ought to be a trader's closest ally, as the previous week demonstrated the practical significance of incorporating risk management into every trader's toolkit. Last week, we executed four trades; despite having only one win and three losses, we concluded the week with a mere 1% loss on our trading account. This has heightened our excitement for the opportunities that this week may present. As is customary, at 8:25 AM EST, we commenced the day by reviewing the essential items on our Judas Swing strategy checklist, which comprises: - Setting the timezone to New York time - Confirming we're on the 5-minute timeframe - Marking the trading period from 00:00 - 08:30 - Identifying the high and low of the zone The next 5 minute candle swept liquidity resting at the low of the zone, which meant our focus would be on identifying potential buying opportunities for the trading session. To increase the likelihood of success of our trades, we wait for a break of structure (BOS) towards the buy side. Once the BOS occurs, we anticipate price to retrace to the initial Fair Value Gap (FVG) created during the formation of the leg that broke the structure. We patiently waited for price to retrace into the created Fair Value Gap (FVG), and executed our trade upon the closing of the first candle that entered the FVG, as all the conditions on our checklist for trade execution were satisfied. Please note that our stop loss is set at the low of the price leg that broke structure, and we implement a minimum stop loss of 10 pips. The minimum stop loss value was not chosen randomly; it was determined through extensive backtesting. This allows trades sufficient space to fluctuate, avoiding premature stop-outs and trades later moving in our anticipated direction. After 15 minutes, a large bearish marubozu candle formed, which could have exited us from the trade if we had set our stop loss solely based on the low of the price leg that broke structure, without including a minimal stop loss in our checklist. By using that price leg, our stop loss would have been around 6 pips, whereas a 10 pip stop loss provides the trade with sufficient breathing room. We are aware that our strategy does not guarantee a 100% win rate but rather hovers around 50% on EURUSD, indicating that some losses were inevitable. To avoid becoming emotional over the position, we used only 1% of our trading account with the goal of achieving a 2% gain. Upon checking our position later, we observed that the position was a few pips away from hitting SL. We remained calm despite the drawdown we were experiencing and were prepared for any outcome of the trade. All that was left was to wait for either our stop loss or take profit to be triggered to determine the result of our trade. A few hours later, the trade began to move in our favor. After 13 hours, our Take Profit was triggered, and our patience paid off as we hit our target on EURUSD, resulting in a 2% gain from a 1% risk on the trade.
Education
by CleoFinance
Week of July 14 NQ/10Y/CL/GC/Real EstateLast week, we were reminded what selling looks like on indexes. The Nasdaq and Bitcoin tend to lead the technical moves, and I believe we are headed for a 10% correction here soon on NDX. NDX led the market by making its top earlier than the rest - but everything is poised for a nice drop from here. My contention is that this will be the final wash-out on indexes before the final big long swing into the secular top of the market - which will come before the November Elections. Nasdaq finally gave us some selling that we can lean into last week. We got a h4 Market Structure Shift (MSS) and Friday gave us the perfect back-test of the h4 sell structure. The first logical target for NQ is going to be the July Lows. From there - I want to see a small bounce and then resume the proper down move to around 18.5k area. The Draw on liquidity is that quarterly IRL that we need to visit. If we can crack the 19k mark on NQ, it will offer a 10% drop from ATH - which is the perfect amount to scare all the villagers, we will see bears on parade - right as its time to long the index for the final move to ~25k. 10yr Rates continued to fall this week - which is what is jucing the markets. That being said, I'm still looking for the 10yr to march down to ~3.8% before any kind of meaningful bounce. This is because the economy is starting to roll over, inflation is coming down - and the bond market knows it. Oil was floppy last week, but I still am looking for that 85/86 level to sell. Oil has been a tough trade up here as the tape has been rather heavy. Oil wants to drop due to weakening global economic forces - but they keep pumping it up with Hurricane premium etc - I have no trade in oil until after we sweep the 85/86 area and can begin the proper big sell program. Gold popped this week but I think it was just a pop into a h4 IRL that is a selling opportunity. I want to see Gold sweep those Equal Lows down around 2304, clean up some inefficiencies ~ 2230, then resume its uptrend. Real Estate is about to start its larger secular downturn here - and we are already seeing it in places like Austin, Phoenix, and Florida. What is wild about Real Estate is how insanely clean the charts are. If we start with the quarterly chart - it is a textbook example of a bubble chart Having this HTF Bias, enables me to look for weekly swing trade setups, as I believe real estate is about to take a 50% or greater dump. I think the prices of MOST assets (homes/planes/boats/Rolex Watches) are headed back to 2013 levels. Homes were bought en masse by wall street, and a lot of the firms are upside down on the properties as they sit empty. A combination of higher rates, and a flood of supply - all timed with an economic recession - is going to leave real estate as a smoking crater. The weekly - we are entering an area up here which I believe will morph out to a great selling opportunity - as we make a weekly Turtle Soup sell entry. So here is the setup I am watching for this week; I want to see NQ drop back to a weekly IRL level and run the h4/weekly TS for potential long entries ~ 19.8k. We should get a small bounce down there, but the ultimate goal of this drawdown should be ~ 18.5k I want to see oil take out the 85/86 level and then reverse hard - this will confirm the bond market deflationary stance as the global economy weakens. I am still waiting for gold to sweep the 2304 equal lows for a long entry. I want to see YM, Real Estate, and Small caps start moving lower. I think this is the start of a nice market-wide correction. Until next week - We'll be watching.
CME_MINI:NQU2024Short
by Baero-Trading
Bitcoin Price Analysis Adjusted for Inflation: Key Reaction LeveOverview In this analysis of the BTC/USDT pair adjusted for inflation using the M2 money velocity (M2V), we examine the key Fibonacci levels and potential reactions from order blocks (OB) and fair value gaps (FVG). This provides a more accurate perspective on Bitcoin's price action in the context of inflation. Key Levels and Analysis Current Price: BTC/USDT adjusted for M2V is trading at 43,235.36, with a 1.57% increase. Fibonacci Levels: 0.236: 49,231.96 0.382: 42,763.04 0.5: 37,534.73 0.618: 32,306.42 0.786: 24,862.72 Potential Reaction Levels 0.5 Fibonacci Level (37,534.73): Order Block (OB): Just below the 0.5 level, an order block is present, indicating a potential strong support zone. Fair Value Gap (FVG): This zone also aligns with a fair value gap, suggesting a high probability of a significant price reaction. Targets Target 1: 49,231.96 - Key resistance level based on the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement. Target 2: 59,688.58 - Major resistance aligned with the 0 Fibonacci retracement level. Target 3: 87,331.31 - Based on the 0.618 Fibonacci extension. Target 4: 115,152.95 - Ultimate bullish target at the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level. Harmonic Patterns The chart shows a large harmonic pattern Cypher, indicating potential reversal zones: Point C: Previous peak, suggesting areas of interest for resistance and support. Current Price Action Support Levels: Immediate support at the 0.382 Fibonacci level (42,763.04). Stronger support anticipated at the 0.5 level (37,534.73) due to the presence of OB and FVG. Resistance Levels: 0.236 Fibonacci level (49,231.96) as the first major resistance. Potential Scenarios Bullish Scenario: Holding above the 0.382 level could lead to a break above the 0.236 level, targeting 59,688.58 and higher. Bearish Scenario: If the 0.382 level fails, a drop to the 0.5 level is likely, where a strong reaction is expected due to OB and FVG. Conclusion Adjusting for inflation with the M2 money velocity offers a clearer view of Bitcoin's real value. The 0.5 Fibonacci level (37,534.73) is critical, with strong support from OB and FVG, suggesting a significant price reaction. Monitoring these levels will provide valuable insights for trading decisions. Share your thoughts and analysis in the comments below! Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.
Long
by Neirolink
1
EUR/GBP potential shortContext: • Market broke through monthly lows and stayed below • Built a weekly FVG down • On the daily, market builds a creeping trend into the weekly FVG • The weekly FVG is supported by lower timeframe FVGs on the daily and 4h chart Idea: • Look for shorts in the area 0.8465 to 0.85 (i.e. lower bound of weekly FVG up to las broken low) • Preferred entry timeframe: 4h Caution / Scenario invalidated: • Caution if market closes above 0.8484 • If market goes into 0.85, a sharp reversal should occur • If the market accepts higher prices and builds up a bullish dynamic, returning into its previous range, I skip this one Target: • Low around 0.84 Stop: • Above your entry signal • Last resort: 0.8541 Watch for your CRV Please feel free to comment!
Short
by MichaelBw
US30USD: Potential Buy OpportunityGreetings, Traders! Brief Description🖊️: Bullish momentum is building on US30USD after a retrace into discount prices, with potential for upside continuation. Things I Have Seen👀: - Bullish Momentum📈: Gain momentum after retrace into discount prices - Respected Discount Arrays📊: FVGs holding, indicating potential for upside move - Price Action📈: Push to upside to take H1 buy stops, followed by retrace into FVG Analysis🔍: - Anticipating hold of FVG and continuation to upside - First Target Objective📉: H1 buy stops - Second Target Objective📉: Order block, importance due to liquidity void needing to be filled What's Important Now❗: Monitor price action around key levels for confirmation of bullish continuation. Kind Regards, The_Architect
OANDA:US30USDLong
by The_Archi-tect
2
XAUUSD: HTF Narrative | NFP | Fair Value Gap Theory | EntriesGreetings, Traders! In today's video, I will provide an in-depth analysis of Gold to establish what I anticipate for today's trading, as well as for tomorrow, especially with the upcoming NFP news release. This video will be both narrative-driven and educational, covering the Fair Value Gap (FVG) theory. You will learn how to identify high-probability FVGs, which will help you understand the market narrative and predict its likely direction. Additionally, we'll discuss entry strategies using the FVG theory. For a deeper understanding of why I anticipate a bullish draw on Gold, please follow the link below to yesterday's post. Best Regards, The_Architect
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by The_Archi-tect
4