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Nikkei - Yen Carry Trade - Real or Cheap Politics ???2nd Week of August felt like we are in midst of Peak Autumn Season - Wherever we turn - Every Tree is turned Fully Red. The Entire World market was brought down to its Knees, given the "EXCUSE" of Japan's Yen Carry Trade assets.bwbx.io Yen carry trade is estimated to be around $20 trillion, according to Deutsche Bank, which is 505% of Japan’s GDP. Other estimates, based on foreign lending data, suggest it is about $1 trillion, while Japanese investors’ net international investment has grown to $3.4 trillion. All these stories are fine - but it was presented to the world by the Cheap Media houses. Multiple news were mixed up (Yen Carry Trade + US Recession + Iran War Escalation). It was being reported that the entire world economy will dive into Recession, Indian Economy would face a Major Correction with some "Brilliant Minds" predicted that Nifty would crash to 11,000 in next 2 years ? Really ??? Even common-sense says these are Non-Sense Here is a Detailed R&D with Step-by-Step explanations unveiling the Evil intentions of Big Players, Media Houses who wanted to take quick advantage of the News to bring the prices down in a Flash Comparison of Nikkei's Weekly Chart vs Daily Chart 1. Nikkei had a clean Cup and Handle Breakout around 33,820 levels in Jan 2024 following which the price blasted nearly 22% in 2 months 2. The Price then faced Multi-year Parallel Channel Resistance on Mar 18th week and started falling and bounced again taking support of Fib 0.5 only - Typically when Fib levels are NOT combined along with previous Support and Resistance - they are susceptible to be broken down again if there is a News based fall 3. By Jul 8, Nikkei tested the price levels of Mar 18 and fell - initiating a Double Top pattern with neckline set at 36,670 and the price was falling Non-stop from July 8 already.... 4. Now comes the News from BOJ on Wednesday Jul 31 that the rates are increased by 0.25%. As I always say, ANY NEWS has the Power to Break one or more Supports (or) Resistances. In this case, the Negative publicity by Big Media caused a -5% fall on Aug 1st (Thu) resulting in Breakdown of Double Top Neckline Key Point to remember is that the Fall was Pre-destined in Mar 18 and then on July 8 technically. The Negative News "JUST" Added "Fuel-to-the-Fire" setting ablaze the entire world market in a flash If there was NO News - still the Breakdown could have happened and if it happened, then the price would slowly come down to the Cup and Handle Breakout zone of 33,820. But the Overhype given my Media + US Recession (another Fictitious Horror Story) + Iran War escalation fears caused the price to Breakdown the 33,820 support level As per Double Top pattern, the price would reach the same place from where it Started the "M" pattern and voila - it came exactly to the same level of 30,404 on Aug 5th reaching a Intra-day low of -12.65%. Despite breaking 3 Support levels on Monday, the price took the next Support and bounced back "Same Day" above 2 of the Supports Remember - Neither BOJ Governor nor Japanese PM/FM did anything to Stop / Reverse the price action on Monday. The calming news from BOJ Deputy Governor that there will be NO further rate hikes came out on Wednesday. But by that time, the price regained above all 3 supports which was broken (reaching above the Cup and Handle BO ZONE) For those who don't believe Technicals didn't save the game - tell me your Story. What caused the reversal from 30,400 zone ? Entire world is driven by Technicals and NEWS can ONLY cause a temporary direction change By Monday - Japanese economy had already touched -30% down in 30 days since Jul 8. Its impossible for a country's economy to crash so fast and still fall below. it would be a Catastrophe and even the Big Players who wanted quick gains know this, but they just wanted to Play a "Cheap Game" capitalizing on the Panic sentiments of Innocent Retailers Understand the True working of Market - Stay Confident - Build your Wealth. Disclaimer: 3+ Years Teaching Experience in Stock Market - Technical Analysis, Behaviour Analysis, Advanced Patterns, Emotional Management, News based Trading... We are NOT SEBI Registered and Our focus is NOT providing Buy/Sell Recommendations/calls. Primary Objective is to provide detailed analysis of how to review a chart, explain multi-timeframe views purely for Educational Purposes. We strongly suggest our followers to "Learn to Ride the Tide irrespective of its Side" *** Important *** Consult your Financial Advisors before taking any positions If you like our detailed analysis, please do rate us with your Likes, Boost and share your comments -Team Stocks-n-Trends
SPREADEX:NIKKEILong
by Stocks-n-Trends
Nifty Media Index - Operator Play1. On Jan 23, 2024 - Nifty Media Index Fell 11.25% 👆👆👆 and during my Analysis I mentioned that it's a FAKE Breakdown on Weekly or On Monthly 2. Now, Look at the latest Chart of Nifty Media - Comparison of Monthly (Left) Vs Daily (Right) timeframes During Jan - Media Index fell below the Bullish Ascending Triangle's Trendline. Usually Monthly close is considered strong confirmation, but since the entire Bullish Triangle was being formed at Monthly level, then we need to test Breakout / Breakdown at Quarterly Levels ONLY 1. All Channels were expecting Media Index to Blast during Mar - Apr - either due to Election Campaigns or IPL viewership - But Operators had other idea. They crashed the Media index continually for 3 months (Jan - Mar) - resulting in Quarterly Chart level Breakdown below Trendline 2. In April - the index recovered a bit, but took resistance at Trendline 3. In May - the Index fell again - which confirms the famous Breakdown - Retest - Fall Pattern 4. Jun 4 started with another mega Crash, but if June as well closes below the Trendline then its a Quarterly Confirmation of Breakdown which means MAJOR Correction But nothing was wrong in Media Sector to face a Correction of this Magnitude + Modi was back in Power - so Crash had to be Stopped - and Operators had less than 1 month to prevent the Crash Result: Post the Election Results day - the Operators hurried and pumped in Millions into Media Sector to ensure the index came right inside the Trendline Now look at the Daily Chart - After a Mega Blast from June 4 to Jun 12 - the Price came within the Trendline and then Operators gave up and price started slowly easing down back to the Trendline to take support from inside This is the Reason - why I posted the Gif file this morning highlighting a Running Race where the Media index came within the Finish Line and started Gasping for breath Since today marks the End of a Quarter - the Fake Breakdown created during previous Quarter had to be recovered by Hook-or-Crook - now that the recovery is done - there is no more money being pumped into and the stock was expected to fall back to support level and hence I said FLAT to Mild Negative Its a Long Storyline - Its a Huge Operator Game, but if any of us is able to Decode this strategy - then we don't have to be afraid of Operators ever again Please share your views - Does this analysis makes sense ? Do you get a sense of how game is played over a Long time ? We need to be expert at Connecting the Dots to become Millionaires in this Cheating World
CLong
by Stocks-n-Trends
Operator Game in HDFC Bank HDFC Bank in the Month of Jan had a Major Crash falling from 1712 levels to 1363 and it broke down below Long Term Parallel Channel Around Jan last week - RBI directed LIC to take a big stake in HDFC bank, but there was absolutely no reaction in the price and it was still sustaining below the Parallel Channel Price later took support at 1363 in the Month of Feb and triggered a retracement, but the increase in Mar and April was still not enough to bring the price inside the Parallel Channel Time passed till June - now its 2nd Quarter close below Trendline if HDFC DOES NOT recover inside the channel After Election - PSU Banks were expected to Rally, Defence and Railways were expected to Rally. Defence and Railways did rally for 2 weeks but stopped right after PSU banks - never took off - but Operators played a beautiful game by Stopping the funding to Defence, Railways, and other Small & Mid Caps and PUMPED in all the Money into HDFC which triggered a massive Rally on Nifty Private Bank Index Though there was NO Special NEWS on Private Bank sector - Why did it Rally suddenly ??? No New Investments, No messages from FM - then why ? Just To bring up HDFC money was pumped in and when a high tide comes it moves even a Stalled ship - similarly other Private Banks caught fire along with HDFC (Collateral Benefit) So - why did I say today morning that Private Banks & Particularly HDFC will be FLAT to Mild Negative ???? Because.... 1. HDFC came safely with the Parallel Channel - no more push required 2. HDFC met its previous ATH resistance 1712 and after a massive rally - I knew for sure they won't pump more to Breakout of the resistance Remember the Pump in was done to SAVE HDFC not to Breakout ATH The entire Private Bank Index was brought up JUST TO SAVE HDFC - Understand the Game now ? Next Week HDFC will fall - which will pull down Bank Nifty, Private Bank index more - Its NOT a correction but rather "GASPING for AIR" after a Hussain Bolt Sprint Now that no more money would be pumped into Private Banks, the focus would shift again towards Defence, Railways and Green Energy next week Was I able to Connect the Dots 2 Quarters before to what is happening on the ground till date ? I don't need to watch any News Channels / paper / Media / Fundamentals - Just by keeping Track of Charts and How Market Moves - I can decode such a long Operator Game How does this sound ??? Like my analysis ? Please do share your opinion
NSE:HDFCBANKLong
by Stocks-n-Trends
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The Unspoken Mystery behind SL Hunting - Example: EaseMyTripThe Unspoken Truth & Mystery behind Stop-Loss Hunting: *** The Most Important Point *** Many Training Academies & Experts say it is Most Critical to have SL, but where ? How much % ? In Equity Delivery Trading (Not F&O / Not Intraday) – when you have done thorough analysis of stock and sector, more than SL, patience is key. Understand the Unspoken Truth – In Trading, Money is not grown organically – the Loss of one person gets to another one as Profit. If Everyone knows a scrip will bounce from a Strong Support – then how will Big Players make money ? By Cheating us, By Faking a Breakdown Scenario, By Stretching beyond our SLs. Although no one knows where we have placed our SLs, Big players know for the fact that a Retail trader won’t have their SLs beyond 10-15%. That’s the normal capacity. So, they try to shatter your patience, break your SL by a Fake Breakdown just beyond an average Retail player. Once our SLs have been hit, then they will pump in money aggressively to take the price Higher. This will hit the SLs of other set of Retail players who may have Shorted the scrip Intraday / F&O when the support was broken. Voila – the Big Players now have hit SLs of Retail players on both sides and will take the price much higher. On a Chart – this will appear as “Wick” on higher timeframe. A proper Breakdown of Support on Daily timeframe will appear as Wick on Weekly and weekly breakdown appears as Wick on Monthly. 2) Pattern Negation: While Taking a trade using Breakout patterns (Rounding Bottom, Inverted H&S, Cup & Handle etc…), the Pattern is Deemed as Negated when the price re-enters below the BO zone. But watch carefully on higher timeframe to ensure it is not a Fake Negation. At least we need to have patience to confirm negation of Pattern on Weekly Close. Even if it gets negated on Weekly – do not exit the trade on SL. Understand where the next major support is. Only if it is far down below – take a calculated decision to exit the trade on SL. Else hold patiently for the price to take support from the next Demand zone and bounce back. 9 out of 10 times (unless the sector itself is in negative sentiment) the price will bounce back / goes sideways accumulating power from the Demand zone. In the case of EasemyTrip - The Falling Parallel Channel / Flag Pattern breakout happended on Weekly and it had to cross the resistance at 46 to be deemed a successful Breakout. But even after Breakout, the scrip started falling down sharply below the 46 Resistance zone on Daily. But look at the Weekly Candle - Only Wick below. for 2 Weeks Big Players tried to scare-off weak hands by faking Breakdown again and again on Daily Timeframe. But on Weekly - for both the weeks only Wick is below 46 and candle ended above 46 zone confirming the Flag Pattern Break-Out as Successful and Still Valid Disclaimer: Stocks-n-Trends is NOT a SEBI registered company. We do not provide Buy / Sell recommendations - rather we provide detailed analysis of how to review a chart, explain multi--timeframe views purely for Educational Purposes. We strongly suggest our followers to "Learn to Ride the Tide" and consult your Financial Advisors before taking any positions. If you like our detailed analysis, please do rate us with your Likes, Boost and share your comments -Team Stocks-n-Trends
NSE:EASEMYTRIPLong
by Stocks-n-Trends