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Fakeout

FAKEOUT: Markets are deceiving usUSDCAD is under a trendline in daily chart, on Friday price broke the resistance area and the trendline but today it has come back again under that area, so it is clearly a price manipulation. Stochastic shows a divergence and I think price will have an ABC CORRECTION till wave 4 bottom in h4 ( I m talking about 1.3200 area). Fundamentals suggests a probable rate cut for FED on 18th of march due to Coronavirus, instead on 4th of march Bank of Canada could even avoid a rate cut (analysts say that the chance is about 40%). If you open a short trade set a stop loss about 50 pips over the high of today and a first take profit at 1.3200.
Short
by Dragon_Investments
1
Bitcoin Buy Signal? Price Action Favors Fake Out.#Bitcoin establishes another higher low off of the 9250 minor support, and has even offered a new buy signal relative to our LONG only swing trade strategy. This time, we are stepping aside because the probability and reward/risk are not attractive. It may be hard to understand for newer investors and traders, but not all signals are created equal. Context plays a big part in shaping the variable probability that is not obvious on the surface of a typical setup. In this video I further explain the elements that we consider in order to filter out such a setup, even though there is a small chance price breaks higher. The following are key points contained in the video so that you do not have to watch the whole thing. 1. Probability of the location: 9564 to 10168 is a proven resistance zone relative to the 14K peak established in June. Order flow has clearly defined a corrective structure which is in line with the probability. This is an area that is more attractive to sell or lock in profits, NOT put on more risk. Even in the face of the broader bullish momentum. 2. Reward/Risk Not favorable: Before all of the chart experts start sharing there 4 hour charts with arrows to 12K or 3K, this element is SPECIFIC to the rules of OUR strategy. Even if we took an aggressive buy signal here, reasonable targets are around 10,400 and 10,850, and the chance of reaching them at the moment appears low. Meanwhile we would have to risk at LEAST 750 points. Although we have taken trades with a minimum of 1:1 reward/risk, probability weighs against taking this particular setup. 3. What does probability favor? A fake out, a lower high, or a more complex corrective structure. Price can test the 8950 level while still maintaining its broader bullish momentum. A more attractive trade idea would be a reversal pattern that develops around the 9250 or 8950 areas. For our decision making process, probability and risk come first, NOT "how much" we can make. This defensive philosophy has minimized negative trades when the environment was not as favorable, and has put us in a position to capitalize on the better quality setups that have appeared recently. For the reactive participant, this process that we follow is very unpopular because it goes against the grain of the herd (just look at what is popular in this community). We follow rules, not news, not opinions, or reactive price movements and either the market will conform, or it won't. Yes, we will miss moves, but we don't lose money missing moves. All we have to do is wait for the next one. Rules are what produce consistent returns in a highly random environment and until you can put that idea into practice, your results will be random as well.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
36
LTCBTC/USD Resistance broken!!!Hey there, Altcoins have been outperforming Bitcoin lately and seem to continue to do so. Litecoin is currently looking very bullish with a break of resistance on the BTC and USD chart. The USD chart is sitting at a 9 on the TD Sequential and could signal a reversal rather soon. Also other cryptos like Ethereum and Bitcoin are sitting at 8s and 9s, which could start reversals, consolidations or continuations. You should definitely keep and eye out for the big altcoin players like ETH, LTC, BCH since they are on the verge of starting strong bull ralleys (after corrections), since key resistance has been broken. On Litecoin we now have to see follow through on the daily timeframe and need it to close well above resistance to confirm its breakout. There is still a chance for a fakeout and the confirmation of a small ascending channel on LTCBTC. Sadly LTCUSD is a bit extended currently so that gives a warning sign for a possilbe fakeout. Definitely stay tuned over the next days in crypto and keep and eye for altcoin plays. Follow me on Tradingview and leave a like . Also check out my YouTube channel: Enlightened Trading a nd my Instagram : enlightened_trading_ if you don't want to miss out on key information. Cheers, Konrad
Long
by EnlightenedTrading
BTCUSD: MACD Fakeout or Trend Change?As the MACD shows on the Daily chart, we are currently facing a not-yet-confirmed bear-cross today, lasts seen December 17th 2019 at $6,612. Since the breakdown from $10K last September we have seen 4 bear crosses, twice causing the price to drop 20-25% (September 21st & November 9th 2019), the other two two times were not-so-obvious bear traps before price rallied 40% (October 24th at $7,435 and as previously referenced). Needless to say, there is more upside with this becoming a MACD fakeout, than a trend change to bearish on the Daily chart. It's also worth noting that while the Daily is bear-crossing, the Weekly MACD is still close to bull-crossing, implying a lack of confluence: All this while the Monthly MACD bear-crossed last month, although has been shedding bearish momentum this month: To say that there is indecision in the markets, based on different time frames (short, medium, long) is an understatement. Recent Bitcoin TA: Volume Profile Accumulation Zone $5,910 - $8,630 Bitcoin Futures Confirms 100 & 200 Day Bear Cross Network Hash Gives 10th Buy Signal In 9 Years February 6th-11th 2020 - The Next Swing Low Could This Descending Triangle Be The Final Fake Out? Extrapolating 2014 Correction - Could $6,500 Be The Low? Two & Four Year MA's Claim It's Time To Accumulate
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by dragononcrypto
Break Out or Fake Out?The red trend line represented shows our long standing bearish trend from ATH's to the highs of June. The black impulse wave represented shows us breaking this trend. The Orange impulse wave represents wave 5 and completion of our first impulse. If we end up breaking out here at ~240B the market will most likely go Parabolic and break out of our current channel. If we fail to break out here it in turn (in my mind) shows that we will retest the bottom of our channel and most likely head for lower lows. The next few days will tell us what is happening. As always DYOR and safe trading.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by CapitulationCalls
2
BTCUSD: Could This Descending Triangle Be The Final Fake Out?Another day, another descending triangle. I first tried drawing this on the 4hr chart, but without being able to include the support touch-point of December 2nd, I've gone with the Daily chart in order to have a minimum of 3 touch-points on both support & resistance trends, with sufficient time in between. There is an interesting difference between this descending triangle and others in Bitcoin's history however. Unlike most of Bitcoin's descending triangles that lead to lower swing lows, the measured move target for this particular triangle is approximately $75 higher than the swing low of around $6,526. I'm therefore remaining neutral while anticipating a final-ish flush out, as the measured move target of 8% could quickly develop into a double bottom or higher low bullish scenario. Support: $7,186 Target: $6,600 Resistance: $7,400 Breakout: 16th-21st December (after 75% of the triangle has completed) Trade it at your own risk. Related TA: Measuring The Move of the Descending Triangle Breakdown Descending Triangle On 4hr Chart To Look Out For? Extrapolating 2014 Correction - Could $6,500 Be The Low? Miner Capitulation Is Here... Back Down To $3,800? Bitcoin Repeating History: 10 Part TA Series On Repeating Past Patterns Full series with recent updates: bitcointalk.org
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by dragononcrypto
Just a PLAN for NZDUSD, not entering yet!Looking at a potential short trade on NZDUSD, if you love trendlines you will like this chart! We have a medium term upwards channel. The thicker trendline above is a longer term trendline and it looks like there could be a fakeout on this one. Finally we have a shorter term upwards trendline in which price has broken out of and now I am waiting for a pullback before entering! The pullback may not come but I prefer to wait rather than take a lower Risk:Reward
by RingerFX
An example of MARKET MANIPULATIONHello guys this is Francesco and I am going to tell you what happend in chfjpy in last days/weeks. As you can see a rettangle had been created and price has had broken it but it WAS A FAKE BREAKOUT, big commercial Banks and Istitutional trader use this strategy to push price in the opposite direction of the trade thet want to execute, and then when most part of traders enter at market (sell positions in this case) Istitutionals insert their huge orders and make the price go up a lot. So before a big movement always try to identify possible stop Huntings. Now price could reach 112.00 or even higher, look for a possible short trade just if there will be clear bearish signals; I will update you on this pair
by Dragon_Investments
5
BITCOIN - Fakeout Bullish Scenario (Read First!)Hello friends! In this idea i would like to show you how a possible Fakeout scenario on Bitcoin (BTC) could look like. While the price was moving in Falling Wedge (Bullish Candlestick-Pattern), the price made a decent downwards move - as per my last idea (linked below). Many traders, especially here on TradingView, were expecting a strong breakout to the upside. That's where the Fakeout comes in play. I personally do not trade according to this idea. This is just an example for an irrational move, which is not rare at all in cryptocurrency markets. Please let me know what you think and share your ideas in the comments section. You can also join our FREE cryptobuller Discord Channel with content for Beginners & Pro's: -> discord.gg <- Disclaimer: Any opinions, chats, messages, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained in this Idea are provided as general market information for educational and entertainment purposes only
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Anton_XBT
10
Traps and Liquidity Searches Using Supply And DemandQuestion during my cooking show live stream was how do i determine a trap or a fake out? First of all i think everyone that trades a different methodology determines a fake out in their own way depending on their methodology the retail traders trades. Using the Supply demand methodology i explain how i determine traps. When i pull up a chart and i see an area that most trading methodologies are looking to buy or sell at. i.g., support resistance traders, supply demand traders, breakout traders, range based traders, fake breakout traders and many more different methodologies are looking to buy or sell in a certain area it's a trap. If im going to play the trap i need there to be a supply or demand zone above or below the area where the other retail traders are looking to buy and sell at.
Education
by MoneyballAustin