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Fakeout

Bull Pennant Fake Out (futures contract expires tomorrow)As I said in my previous idea that in order for the bull pennant to trigger it's bullish break that the current 4hr candle simply needed to close above it(which it seemed like it was ready to do) I also said it would need a surge in bullish volume to confirm the breakout as well and to look for both of those and not to make any decisions until the breakout is triggered from getting those 2 things. Well, instead we got nothing but a big surge in bearish volume and have broken well below the flag. As I said in my last idea however it was wise to be prepared for this exact opposite outcome. We were unable to overcome the 1 week 50ma and the strong resistance trendline just above the price action. I believe the 2 biggest reasons for this are #1. We were extremely overdue for a correction and #2. The futures contract from April expires tomorrow. We most likely have bearwhales trying to plunge the price just before the expiration. So now probability heavily favors a bearish breakout of this bull pennant which would have a target drop all the way down to around $6,870. Which would be a very satisfying way for a bear to end their futures contract. At the same time after such a huge bull run if we were to rebound up from around that price point we would still be forming a higher low on both the 4hr chart and the 1 day chart....of course there's always a chance it could continue to dip after that and create a lower low on those charts but I'm thinking we will likely jump back upward after the futures expiration(even though I'm once again prepared for the opposite outcome should we not). One thing I have to stress here however, is we need to wait until we see how the very ent 4hr candle behaves to determine whether or not this isn't just another fakeout. It is the confirmation candle and it will confirm the bearbreak either at its close if its still below the flag, or before its close with another big surge in bear volume. All things considered I think it's likely we will trigger the bear breakout but as always be prepared for all outomes...good luck and thans for reading! *not financial advice*
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by DrDovetail
My REAL Opinion on Short Term News & Data Good evening traders, i just want to share a idea i was thinking about. I am shorting the Dollar Index since 4 days and after being in profit till Wednesday the FED rates pushed my profits away and the dollar higher. Here are my thoughts about short term rates and data - news in the short term in general: I am trading over 3 years now and since 2 years i am looking on higher timeframes like 4h charts and the daily. For me these short term news and datas often expose as a fake out. Lets explain the scenario. Some higher news about the US or EU comes out and the numbers are higher or lower or whatever... 90 percent of the time at the second the news is out price, like in the DXY rises up or down for only seconds, hours but sometime a whole day, only to come back the whole price the day after or 4h candle after the first one is closed. Im just gonna leave this open why and who does that but facts are it happens 90 percent of the time. Back to the charts.. Im still short on the dollar because this is what i think is happening here another time. Price moved another time high this Wednesday and Thursday but cant break the strong resistance yet. Like i explained before, i think it was just a fake move to trap buyers.. P.S. Im just talking on short term data, not fundamental aspects and president elections or economic data. Let me know what you think on short term data & news in the comment section.
TVC:DXY
by darian_fx
What everyone is expecting in BTC. When everyone expects something in crypto, it doesn't happen. Everyone expected $1tril marketcap high - didn't happen. Everyone expected $10k to break and retest the $11.8 - didn't happen. Everyone expected consensus to be a mini alt season - didn't happen. Everyone expected 6th of June to be the reversal as previous months - didn't happen. What is everyone expecting now? That we retest the upper resistance on the penant as marked by the yellow arrow. My hunch is that it won't happen. It we fail this retest, we will also create a perfect cup and handle. How about a fakeout bear trap from there with real direction decided right at end of the penant? Just a hunch. Let's see what happens. I'm staying neutral for now as this is clearly no mans land.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by porterstone
Dechra Pharmaceuticals Fake-BreakoutLast post: June 3rd. See chart . Review: Price was approaching the resistance level. Update: Since the last post, price broke above the resistance level but has failed to stay there and has now fallen back below that level. The breakout was a fake breakout. Conclusion: We need price to break the resistance level again and stay above it before looking for trading opportunities. Any comments or questions, do not hesitate to leave them below. Give us the thumbs up if you share our sentiments! Sublime Trading
DLong
by Sublime_Trading
Jackpot Joy Looking GoodThis stock is featuring for the first time on our TradingView blogs. Current setup: Price has just broken out of consolidation which lasted for several months. Conclusion: We need to see price remain above the consolidation zone to make sure this is not a fake breakout. We will wait for the next breakout before looking for a trading opportunity. Any comments or questions, do not hesitate to leave them below. Hit agree if you share our sentiments! Sublime Trading
JLong
by Sublime_Trading
ETHUSD: Navigating The Noise Around A Double Bottom.ETHUSD update: Tricky price action off of the 656 support may leave you confused. Is this a double bottom formation off of a predetermined support? In this brief report I will share an idea to consider when it comes to evaluating a position. The 714 level happens to be the .382 resistance of the previous bearish structure. This level is clearly in play in terms of keeping price from advancing any further. Also this price action is a function of BTC not being able to sustain consistent bullish momentum either. Even though this lack of follow through may be confusing, the 656 level (.382 of recent bullish swing from 358 low) is still exhibiting a double bottom formation. Along with that, the formation is a higher low relative to the 358 low. This implies an overall context of strength. At S.C., we haven't issued any trade signals because price action has not met the conservative criteria that we are waiting for. For the more aggressive, here is one idea to consider in a situation like this: place a limit order way below the market. Put it somewhere between 645 and 620. If this market experiences a panic spike, you get some at a great price. The premise here is you are capitalizing on the randomness while betting that the overall structure stays intact. Since price can easily fall through this area, placing a limit order like this carries a lot more risk. So to compensate, take a fraction of your normal swing or position trade size. Like 1/3 or 1/2. Andrew explained this idea nicely in his recent BTC article on S.C. Check it out for a similar idea in that market. In summary, price action is noisy at the moment, but a bullish bias still exists. Placing limit orders under a market like this can get you a good price IF the structure holds. If it does not, you must either blow it out for a loss, or since it is a smaller position to begin with, just hold on and plan to add when stability does materialize eventually. This inventory management method works best when NOT using margin. If you don't understand the effects of margin, avoid this method because it can lead to account wipe out. Whether price gives you an entry on a panic spike, or you have to hold through a deeper correction, it is the smaller size that keeps your risk in check. As market conditions improve, you will have opportunities to add to it. We use this method often at S.C. for these markets, metals and even stocks.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
3
The GOLDEN Arc | Long if ranging, short if trendingSome people may call me obsessed over this rare, precious metal - I like to think of myself as a modern-day GoldRusher. XAUUSD is currently ranging, perhaps because of political uncertainty, perhaps because it's just the way GOLD works. Not taking into consideration the fundamental side of the market, I would tell everyone to go long on XAUUSD right now and ride it up to 1360.00. Forex doesn't work like that, however. We've seen promising reports from the US DOLLAR recently suggesting that it's going to gain strength, grow legs and run away with all other currencies. We're also expecting a speech from Trump later today. Factoring in all of the above, it's almost impossible to say for sure whether XAUUSD will break below the support line, out of the range and into a trend or simply just carry on upwards, and downwards, and upwards, and downwards. Watch this space for a closer look into the XAUUSD graph later today.
FX:XAUUSD
by Chris4XTrading
GBPUSD 4HR BREAKOUT FAIL SHORT Fundas: Despite an improved unemployment rate Average earnings fell over the period. With the CPI tmrw I am slightly ahead of the game but anticipate this action is showing how timid traders are at this level for any more short term upside. Techs: Price firmly rejected an upside breakout on the 4hr chart at 1.4375, showing some lvl of supply in conjunction with the daily. I started in short at 1.4325 with a stop above the high (1.4430) in the event the market tries to spook out shorts. My target area is 1.4200 and will add to winners as the market gives direction. Establish your system, be patient for your setups and act without hesitation. Follow along with us in our live chat for live trade calls and analysis Happy trading
Short
by StellarCraig
A possible long opportunity on USD/JPY Hi guys, I want to share my vision of USDJPY. I was looking at this pair for the last days and waiting for a nice trade opportunity, finally i found a great pattern that could make a lot of pips. As you can see, we have a inverted Shoulder Head Shoulder pattern with a breakout of the channel, when a breakout happens, mostly i wait for a retest of previous resistance now support. The only thing that i don't like at all is the NFP result which was horrible for the USD, this can lead to invalidate our inverted shoulder head shoulder pattern and bring the price back to 105.000 levels Personally im going to wait for a candle pattern that gives me confirmation to enter. Trade Safe! Greetings, D. Sayan
Long
by AlphaVIP
current 4 hour candle attempting bearish breakout from bullflag?The bullflag that never ends seems to be decisively bearish right now and breaking downward. That's not to say in the 45 minutes left before the close of the current 4hour candle the bulls couldn't still find a way to carry us back up inside the bull flag once again...and even if they don't this flag has attempted so many fake breakouts already, that it's definitely wise to wait and see how the follow up 4 hour candle to this one acts. It's not an official breakout until this candle and the next candle close below the bottom trendline....If that is to occur (which probability favors right now) , then as you can see the red line will send us down to at least the 50SMA and otentially slightly below it. Hopefully not, as we want first and foremost to stay above the 50 MA from here on out. That pesky 100 MA just keeps rejecting our advances. For now I will once again remain neutral on the chart and also be hodling even though my bias leans towards the bearish outcome right now...I am totally prepared for another fake breakout should it occur, but just as prepared for a legitimate breakout this time as well. Currently on the 1day chart the 1 day Tline seems to be holding steady as suupport...we will see soon how long that can last....if this bearish breakout gets confirmed then it will likely dip under the 1day tline, but the 1 day tline could also help us revert course and head back upward as well.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by DrDovetail
3
BTCUSD: Bears Persist At Short Squeeze Levels?BTCUSD: Price pushes off of 7605, touches 8604 in a matter of hours, BUT it did not close strong. This price action is apparent across the board and for me means ones thing: bulls are not in control, yet. The next scenario that I am anticipating is a failed low formation which needs to unfold above 7401 if buyers are to return and initiate the next bullish leg. All eyes are on this market. ETH and LTC are pretty much following this lead. Buying activity appeared at a very attractive support area BUT like I wrote about in my previous report, strong closes are required in order to prove that there is follow through. When indecisive or weak closes appear instead, that means the bearish momentum is still intact. That also means lower prices are a much higher probability. The question is, how much lower? That is where the current location and price structure come into play. Price is now within the 8171 to 7239 minor support zone (.618 of recent bullish swing) which is also overlapping the broad 8174 to 4983 major support area (.618 area of entire bullish structure). I have been writing about this overlapping support area for weeks. Trading within a support area is an important piece of information to know, but not necessarily enough to buy into. Within the minor support zone, there are two reversal zone boundaries that are important to note. Reversal zones are areas that are proportionate to a low or high point where price is most likely to reverse. If a fake out is going to happen, that is most often where it happens. In this case. 7776 and 7401 which overlap the 8171 to 7239 support zone are the lower boundaries of two reversal zones relative to the 8342 and 7665 lows respectively. That is why even though price is still controlled by bearish momentum, it still has a chance to reverse. Right now in order to prove that bullish momentum is returning, price needs to reverse from where it is and break above 8200. Until that happens, this market is likely to continue lower, even beyond the reversal zones as long as momentum stays bearish. That is why it is more conservative to bet on the proof of the reversal (follow through) than a reversal attempt (pin bar alone). In summary, if you took the recent pin bar long (there was a great signal posted on other site), it hit its short term target within the same day, but if you held onto it looking for a broader move higher, the fact that the next close after the pin bar was not strong was a clear sign that you should either get out, or sit on what you have and see if the failed low scenario plays out (which is much more risky). It all depends on what your goal is: short term or long term. I am still managing a position trade long, and holding for the next broad move higher. IF the reversal zones do not hold up, it means I will have to take more pain which I am willing to do. I have the long term perspective and recognize that these low prices in general are a buying opportunity. As long as the original premise and underlying technology maintain their relevance, these persistent sell offs offer better prices to buy. Questions and comments welcome and see explanation of the recent trade on SC.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
21
BTCUSD: Not That Weak? Quiet Market Offers Clues.BTCUSD update: 9616 level was compromised but bullish momentum did not take hold. As long as this market can stay above the 8342 low, it will still have a chance to break higher. In my previous BTC report, I highlighted the 9616 break out level which is the .382 minor resistance relative to the recent bearish swing. Price pushed it, and failed. Is this a bearish sign? The fact that price pushed through, even though not followed by bullish momentum is still a sign of strength. A break of this level does not guarantee follow through, it acts as more of a heads up. As long as price does not fall below the recent swing low of 8342, it is setting up for a bullish move in my opinion. Remember if this market was really weak, it would be making bearish progress quickly. This can still happen, especially if a more significant catalyst comes out and pulls the rug from under this price action. The fact that it is holding above the 8659 level indecisively is a sign of strength especially in the face of Goldman Sachs' attempt to talk it lower. IF the current candle closes in its present configuration (inside bar) then what happens next will provide a much better clue as to where this market is going. A break above 9482 will establish a higher low, which can lead to a retest of the 10422 resistance (.618 of recent bearish swing). IF bearish momentum increases, and price closes below 8342, then I would expect a retest of the 8171 to 7239 minor support. Aren't lower highs like the one at 9900 a sign of weakness? Yes, often lower highs are followed by lower lows, but when in range bound environments such as this, the chances of a fake out are much more likely compared to a decisive move lower. This is especially the case when price is sitting above a number of overlapping support levels. In summary, as I have mentioned before, when conditions are unclear, let the market show its hand. When questioning the market, valuable information is gathered not only from what the market is doing, but also from what it is NOT doing. Even though this market may look weak to the casual observer, it is not pushing lows which to me is a hidden sign of strength. Don't be mislead by uneventful conditions because more often than not, that is where opportunity exists. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
18
BTCUSD: Slow Double Top May Offer Hidden Sign Of Strength?BTCUSD update: Double top formation is attempting to unfold but I would not assert this conclusion yet because it is materializing in such a slow fashion, it is suspect in my opinion. This double top is lacking the selling momentum that usually follows which can be a hidden sign of strength. When a market rejects a resistance level, especially a second time, price often does not waste time. It sells off quickly and that is not happening in this market. Not only is the bullish trend line still intact, but there is also a minor support at 10754 (.382 of recent bullish swing) that can hold price up for a subsequent higher low. These not so obvious factors point to the possibility that there is no real motivation to sell and all this market needs is a catalyst to spark the move to higher prices. This type of formation is attractive to shorts, and can suck many in who do not realize that the timeliness of a formation is an important consideration. If I was short, and I was sitting through this lack of progress, I would be uncomfortable and looking to get out because it is not behaving as it should. This is not something you learn in a book, or some free video on Youtube, you learn this by years of observation and getting caught on the wrong side of strong markets. When selling happens, it happens faster than buying. This does not guarantee that price will continue higher, and the possibility of the double top following through still exits, but the longer price stays above the trend line and/or the 10754 level, the more of a chance it will go higher. Don't be quick to judge a market because of an impression of a formation, instead let the market prove itself. Waiting for this proof usually costs you more in terms of better entries, or less favorable exits, but that is the price you must pay for seeing the market's hand. Since I locked in profit at 10900 the first time it sold off from this level, I have reduced risk and still waiting for a good price to add more to my long. A clear bullish reversal at the 10754 level is my preferred scenario, other wise I will just stay with what I have. It is very possible for the market to form a shallow higher low off of the trend line and break higher, which is a valid break out signal. Why I will not aggressively add in that scenario is because I do not like buying into the reversal zone which has an upper resistance at 12429. If you choose to buy into that break out, the key to managing more effectively is to be quick to exit if a failure candle shows up while within the reversal zone. In summary, TA is more than just indicators and charts. It tells a very detailed story if you understand what is "behind" the candles. And to any story, there are at least two sides, and you must always be evaluating both until the market shows its hand. Less experienced traders do not realize that when facing any market environment, there is a high degree of randomness or noise which leads to confusion and a lack of "predictability". The mistake many will make at an inflection point like that one we are facing now is that they will attempt to predict which way the market will go from here. We can evaluate the signs and consider the context to get a better idea of where the bias leans, and take chances when the reward/risk is clear. When it is not, it is better to let the market reveal its intentions. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
31
$XAUUSD Daily Chart. A fake-out not a break-out |#gold #fx #us Traders, Gold’s rally 1046.54 to 1375.12 labelled (i)-(v) confirmed the reversal signature and is indicating the end of the corrective structure from late 2011 with a Double Zig-Zag pattern at 1046.54. This larger pattern is labelled, unfolding as a primary degree impulse, 1(circle), 2(circle) and is getting ready to break to new record highs for gold the next decade when the second corrective wave 2(circle) completes and that’s perfectly correlated with the multi-month correction we are expecting for U.S$. Gold is going to break above 1375.15 (the previous high) however, that will be a fake out and not a break out, dropping again back in the range. This means that once the upside is completed, this market will undergo a severe percentage corrective decline, proportional to the downswing from the July’ 16 high labelled as (A)-wave, giving a sense of equality of waves (A) and (C). A fib. 61.8% retracement of the 1046.54-1375.15 advance projects down to 1170.00+/- for the following 5-wave sequence labelled as wave (C) completing the Running Flat Pattern 2(circle). Wave (B) is moving in a very overlapping sequence, a corrective format as a Triple Zig-Zag, thus cannot be considered as an impulsive sequence, but as the second part of a larger corrective structure. Implementing Fib-price ratios and proportions model for this pattern, terminal price targets are highlighted where measurements converge at 1420.00(+/-), creating a “reversal standby signature” where a price rejection could be enough to validate the flat’s pattern second-wave completion. Trade with Discipline Best
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by ChrisMark
17