Fake Out Inside Bar ContinuationOrange Juice has had an incredible move to the downside in an easy walk down fashion. Textbook counter trend price action has brought price up to where it is and has now formed a fake out inside bar after a double legged pullback.
Fakeout
XAUUSD Long potentialThe last move up will complete the first bullish impulse with a fake out close to trendline. Continuous divergence on the MACD will potentially drive price to the support area of 200 Moving Average, before the move up.
1) Never risk more than 2% of your account.
2) Try to be emotionless by applying your strategy to the pip.
3) Invest to yourself and then your capital. Try to educate yourself along with the signals and enhance your risk intelligence and your perception on how Markets work.
4) You do not have to be extremely precise to be highly profitable as long as you take the set-ups with big R/R.
CadJpy, Inflection point Cadjpy is currently sitting at an inflection point, 88.6 level. Which is critical for both the bulls and bear.
A bounce would validate a long term inverse H&S patterns being played out since 2015.
A break below the neckline of 88.6 would probably trap bulls in the 88.6 - 91 region. (Fakeout)
A long trade would yield an impressive R:R if the bullish case plays out. Whereas if its a bear case, its more prudent to wait for the 88.6 level to be taken out before going short.
A small trade has been entered at 88.7, with a stop loss of a closing candle below 88.6.
Wave C - Destroyer of Worlds (ETHUSD)We watched for a very very long time as ETH was forming a rising wedge. Then it broke up and we all of a sudden got bullish and looked at the smaller time frames. @crimsonr was nice enough to pull my head out of the sand. The rising wedge had a fake out breakout and has now collapsed and is falling under the wedge. Doing a proper count now you will see that we are now entering into wave C of the correction. Target is $175 with possible extension.
There are many other indicators that say we are going down. Volume is divergent, AO says sell, Stoch says sell.
Remember, I can be completely wrong, and this will take some time.
Constructive comments are welcome
Another way to use "Divergence" to spot Fakeout from Breakout -is to find out if the momentum is getting stronger or weaker, if the chart make a higher high and the indicator made lower high so it refer to; the momentum is decreasing, in order to spot the (breakout from fakeout)
-in this example we have a rectangle consolidation, you can see the first breakout was a fake out, here we'll use divergence to spot this fake out take a look at the indicator is making higher low while the price get back to same low this indicate the momentum is decreasing, the bears are already exhausted and the price get back to rectangle pattern.
-But the next one was a real breakout look at the indicator is making lower low just like the price, also if you look what just happened next the price soar up to reach the support line of the rectangle pattern which is turned to resistance, the bears gathers more steam to push the price down
-Hopefully this was helpful and another tool to put it in your arsenal facing the market wish y'all a green week, Peace.
XRPUSD Range BoundXRP has been range bound a for quite some time. A recommendation on trading positions would be ill-advised at the moment but based on our symmetrical triangle, its evident that a break above the %50 retracement level would signal a bullish move. Buy orders trigger after a day or two close above the 50% mark. A fake-out may ensue after interest is overtaken by profit takers but this remains to be seen. An increase in buyer volume will push and break past the 50% mark to find potential resistance at 0.618.
The current sentiment would be that the resistance level has been met and a breakdown will ensue to revisit the 0.382 retracement level at $0.191 or the support level at $0.13.
BTCUSD Perspective And Levels: Buyers Are Back? Not Yet.BTCUSD Update: 4104 level holds while price pushes back into resistance zone only to stop at the 4352 to 4407 minor resistance (.618 of recent bearish swing). Is this price action bullish? Not on the bigger picture.
The price rally that occurred near the 4104 support level that I wrote about in my previous report is the type of move that is great when trading smaller times frames, but the problem with the bigger picture is: it's right back in the middle of the 4203 to 4548 resistance zone which makes it still too risky in terms of getting long for a swing trade.
The bounce off of 4133 is certainly worth noting as a higher low which is a sign of strength, but without the higher high (follow through), it is really nothing more than noise at the moment. It is very possible that this market is beginning to build a more bullish foundation which will be confirmed IF price can produce a subsequent higher low followed by a push to the 4548 break. In that scenario, I will have enough evidence of strength to BEGIN to look for a new swing trade long.
If you are day trading, that long can come sooner, but the reason why I wait is because the upside potential needs to be clear and at the moment it is not. 4104 is still significant and if price breaks below, I will consider that a major sign of weakness. Often what happens in a situation like this is if price does not follow through, the new longs will create even more selling momentum as they scramble to get out. This kind of price action can provide the momentum required to break the 4104 support. The market has to choose.
In summary, these markets are slow and require a decisive move one way or the other. On one side, it is possible that the lack of selling momentum (4104 held) can be interpreted as strength, but without follow through, it is not enough because the risk is still too high. What I would like to see for a long is the break above 4548 so that I can look at this resistance zone as a new support. That would change things entirely, but until that happens I have to stay out and watch. A retrace back to 4104 and possible break will add to the bearish argument even more and I will stay flat unless extreme prices are retested. My plan is simple, I know what I need to see, and if the market doesn't present it in a way that offers reasonable risk according to my plan, then I do not have to take any risk.
Comments and questions welcome.
GBPJPY Retest of broken trend line.GBPJPY Retested broken trend line.
200EMA Acting as dynamic resistance
0.382 On fib acting as resistance?
Enter IF
Maybe enter if there is candle stick pattern.
If there is bearish 8EMA21SMA crossover.
If there is nice big bearish candlestick formation.
There is a lot of bearish volume.
Or on my other trade you can see a nice support zone on this pair. If it break that maybe that is a good place to enter?
More analysis on this pair soon.. Good luck !
Please only enter if there is enough confluences.
4h bounce at Butterfly + WW 5 or AB=CD + WW 5'Dax has been acting rather harmonic lately and now we've got another Butterfly completed on the 4h, while a beautiful bullish Wolfe Wave is in play. I'm still expecting a much larger correction in the long term, but I think we could see a nice run from around here or the bigger daily AB=CB at the fake out in daily + weekly demand, before bears eventually takes control again.
Take notice of the upsloping lines hidden in the background. They've really been doing a great job lately!
Have a nice weekend :)
UJ H&S Fake out: Short term LongPrice completed abc correction into big figure 109/Bullish order block
Impulse move out of base
Correction above 111
H&S formation, i believe its a fake out
Price has broken short term Trend Line in H&S Pattern
i expect price to run to the next big figure 112/Resting stops and from there price could potentially run to 113 as the DXY continues to gain momentum
entry 111.163
Target 1: 112
Target 2: 113
USDJPY Price Is Breaking Out The ChannelAs you can see on USD/JPY we can see the price is breaking the channel and preparing for a breakout, if that doesn't happen then we are preparing to go short from here , i wait for tommorow.(note that we are in seller's territory)
Happy and safe trading (Follow for more)
DailyFx Forecast:
USD Is neutral
JPY Is bearish
Trend Down
Volitility 26%