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potential inverted h&shoulders overlaid on top of falling wedgeWe are now potentially forming an inverted head and shoulder pattern overlaid on top of the falling wedge which only will increase the odds of a bullish breakout for btc. In order for this inverted head and shoulders to have a chance it must have a bounce before too long and the most likely spot we have as a good bounce support is the top trendline of the falling wedge...if we see it stay above that line odds are good of validating both he breakout of the falling wedge and the inverted h&s pattern but until I see that, this idea will remain neutral for now....if I see it break under the falling wedge trendline I will lean more bearish and think this was nothing more than a dead cat fakeout bounce...but for now we will have to wait and see what it decides to do at the falling wedge top trendline. I may not sell again until it breaks under the bottom trendline of the falling wedge though. The inverted head and shoulders can be seen on the 1hr,2hr,3hr, and 4hr charts. Thanks for reading this NON-financial advice from a NON-financial advisor like myself and good luck!
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by DrDovetail
2
falling wedge or bearflag? dead cat or possible double bottominside what started out looking like a descending triangle bearflag we have developed a small falling wedge(bullish)on the 1hr chart...shown here is the 4hr chart. The initial 4 hour descending triangle we have already broken below but the whales seem to be holding things above 4k thus no breakdown was triggered casting much doubt on tis being a descending triangle....this could lead to a potential double bottom with 4050 and 4090 however it could still end up breaking below for now it slightly favors the upside temporarily but since that probability is only slight..this idea will remain neutral...this is more or less a no trade zone until it chooses a clear path.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by DrDovetail
A look at the XRPUSD pair almost at golden cross!Normally my xrp charts are looking at the XRPBTC pair...but with more and more exchanges now enabling the XRPUSD fiat pair I think it's important to factor that in as well. We are currently right around 49 cents but will likely be heading upward soon...you can see the price action has been consolidating in a falling wedge which most of the times break upwards...you can also see here that if we were to break up from the falling wedge at this point where we are now testing its top trendline...the breakout target price would conveniently be right at the neckline of the inverted head and shoulders pattern now forming on the chart as well..We seemed destined to trigger the inv head and shoulder pattern on the xrpbtc pair so I think the xrpusd pair will inevitably trigger its inverted head and shoulder in the near future as well. So I think probability favors XRP breaking bullishly upward from this falling wedge fairly soon as well as a golden cross happening as soon as the next day candle to 3 days from now. Overall very bullish looking indeed.
BITFINEX:XRPUSDLong
by DrDovetail
Halving 1: 9940% Return, Halving 2: 3247%, Halving 3: 1060% ???Bitcoin has experienced 2 halving events since its inception in 2008, the first on 28 November 2012 and the most recent halving event on 9 July 2016, whereby mining rewards are reduced by 50%. Each one of these events has been preceded with a strong uptrend in the months leading up to the event and each of these events experienced a significant rally for the subsequent 12 - 18 months from the halving date. Bitcoin's next halving date will take place roughly 20 May 2020 and, like the previous 2 events, I am expecting an uptrend in the months running up to the event as well as in the months thereafter. To see how these events compare to the upcoming event 18 months from now, we can look at the duration and returns between each halving event date and its next ATH. As per my previous longer term post, I believe Bitcoin should move within either the orange channel or the yellow channel over the longer term. In the short to mid term, we should find out which of these channels it's going to be as the market patiently awaits a decision by the SEC regarding the Van Eck Solid X Bitcoin ETF application which has been ongoing for quite a few months now. 29 December 2018 is decision day for the Van Eck ETF but the SEC may defer the decision one last time to 29 February 2019, in which case I expect the price to fall below the larger uptrend support for a retest of the 2018 annual lows. If the Van Eck ETF does get approved on 29 December 2018, this may be the catalyst for the bull run starting in Q1 2019. If the ETF decision is deferred on 29 December, I expect a downtrend in January with a potential break of the yearly lows to test the $4800 support (0.236 fib) and the bull market may then only potentially begin in Q2 if there is ETF approval on 29 February 2019, in which case there should be a move back above the prior uptrend support (current resistance) and back inside the yellow channel. In case of ETF approval on 29 February 2019, I expect a strong uptrend back into the yellow channel and a continuation of the uptrend once BTCUSD is holding the channel support. If the Van Eck ETF is rejected on 29 December 2018 or on 29 February 2019 then there may see a sharp drop to the $3000 support at the bottom of the orange channel where BTCUSD should consolidate and slowly rise in the months preceding the next halving event around 20 May 2020. When the first gold ETF was launched in 2003, there was a 300% rise in the price of gold which was already an established asset class. A Bitcoin ETF along with the upcoming 2020 halving should be the catalyst we have all been waiting for and should drive the next bull run to McAfee price prediction levels. Now let's look at the duration and returns of the prior events. The first halving event: Date: 28 November 2012 Duration from Halving Date to next ATH: 364 Days (1 year) Return from Halving Date to next ATH: 9940% Second Halving Event: Date: 9 July 2016 Duration: 525 Days Return from Halving Date to next ATH: 3247% The second halving event's rate of return (from the halving date to the next ATH) works out to be just under 1/3 of that of the first halving event (3247% / 9940 X 100 = 32.665% of the first halving's rate of returns). If we apply the same principle so that the upcoming halving event achieves just under 1/3 of the second halving event's rate of return then there should be a 1060% return from the next halving date until its next ATH (32.665% of 3247% = 1060%). Next Upcoming Halving Event: Date: +- 20 May 2020 Duration: +-560 Days to +-581 Days Return from Halving Date to next ATH: 1060% Price Target: If the Bitcoin downtrend continues and moves towards the bottom of the orange channel support first, then I suspect Bitcoin will have closed above the larger yellow uptrend and for price to be holding support at $8060 on the halving date. Based on a 1060% return, there should be a strong uptrend towards the bottom of the yellow channel for a target of $85430 over 560 days. If Bitcoin moves back inside the yellow channel on news of an ETF approval, then I expect the price to have found support at and closed above $31766 (1.618 fib) by the halving date around 20 May 2020 and for a strong uptrend to continue from there for 580 days to the top of the orange channel resistance (price could even potentially move higher to the yellow channel resistance). Based on a 1060% return, the price target at the top orange channel resistance is expected to be $336720 . I know these targets sound ridiculous but I remember thinking $5k was ridiculous back in 2013 when BTC was still $100. Good luck and happy trading! Previous chart:
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Corn_Reaper
Stellar achieves a gldncross! Rches brkout target of fllngwedgeFor those of us who were already holding some xlm the slight fomo above the breakout target that created the current candles bullwick would have been an excellent place to take some profit. Props to anyone who acted quick enough to take advantage of that. We can ee here though that much like XRP, Stellar has also triggered a golden cross on the 1 day chart and shortly thereafter has broken bullishly out of the falling wedge it was in. Now is a good profit taking zone because the target has been met , but for anyone thinking of adding stellar and the long term hodlers of stellar there is more bullish action to come after this current consolidation if probability wins out. The golden cross on the 1 day chart is an extremely bullish sign. I of course always wanna be prepared for the exact opposite outcome should this be a golden cross fakeout. If I was adding to my position here I would wait for an indication it will continue to break upward. If it starts to consolidate into a bull flag I would then wait for the clear break up of the bullflag to add to my position. for now I think I'm gonna trade my previous holdings into BAT and XRP since BAT has been listed on Coinbase and XRP has had a slight consolidation dip that to me is a smart buy zone considering it seems like it will sustain it's golden cross and the bullish news about r# and SBI. I will always try to retain a small foundational amount of stellar though as I believe it will likely serve as xrp's competition with xrp having the verizonesque dominance of the market and stellar being the more affordable less desirable alternative (TMobile).
Long
by DrDovetail
1
XRP continues sideways between the 1day 200ma & former trendlineAs I anticipated this former trendline(in red) that once provided very strong support is currently providing significant resistance. Even though we have broken upward from the falling wedge and we still have a ways to climb to reach our breakout target we are currently being stalled sideways by this former trendline meanwhile the 1 day 200ma(in blue) is providing solid support. I think considering that the former trendline now acting as resistance is an ascending trendline that the 200ma should maintain support and we should have room to inch higher with ever new 1 day candle as we continue this sideways movement...we could potentially even stay below this red trendline and still reach our upward break target if we go sideways long enough with the 200ma breaking support. I have a feeling xrp will eventually find a way to break back above this trendline but it may take a few 1 day candles of consolidation first.
Long
by DrDovetail
1
Daily Renko[500] I'll catch my bottom -> possible 76% profitI think we have a bottom (i smell it :)) my trading setup: entry positions (ledgers): L1: ~6'000 (double bottom + support from November) -> fill 70% position L2: ~5'500 (wedge bottom + average between .382 and .236 by fibonacci) -> fill 20% position L3: ~5'000 (wedge bottom + resistance from 09.2017) -> fill 10% positions stop loss @4'690 (below .236 fibonacci + above VPVR VA + below wedge) targets: 8'232 and 9'685 first, we go little bit down: MACD: RSI: Stochastic:
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by vabalas26
1
XRP continuing up from its breakout from the falling wedgeXRP moving steadily upward finally getting above the 1 day 200ma with a daily candle close and continuing to head towards the breakout target price from the bullish falling wedge breakout. Volume has not been anything exciting so it may continue to climb slowly but will likely get pretty close to hitting the price target if not hitting it exactly or exceeding it. I expect fundamentally for Sibos to bring some bullish news and also the current hubub about the white houses interest in xrp may be helping fuel the fire as well.
Long
by DrDovetail
1
BTC in a Falling Wedge - One final leg down for capitulation?Falling Wedge pattern usually breaks to the upside between 55-80% of the pattern. I've narrowed it down to between 62-77% on the chart to try to hone in on the date. If the pattern plays out, we would expect a break out between December 18th and February 19th. I would expect us to break to the upside to at least a measured move of $9200. Pattern could also fail and break to the downside. If we take a measured move to the downside, it would equate to 0. Failed falling wedges sometimes break down and curls around the entire pattern before it goes back up. As mentioned, I expect us to go up due to the pattern at play. Multiple factors signaling a bottom of $4400-$5000. Falling wedge pattern lines up with support and resistance from 2017. Fib Retracement from beginning of bull run in 2017 of $920 all the way up to ATH has the 0.786 level, which is the last level on the fib chart at $5,000 Fib Extension from High of $10k down to previous low of $5800 back to $10k, puts the 1.272 level right at $4600, in between support and resistance. The 1.272 level would play out an ABCD bull pattern, with C being the high at $8500 which is the 0.618 level of previous high. Trading volume between $4900 - $5700 is nonexistent which if the $5700 low fails as support, we could end up in free fall down to $5k. Could expect wicks and perhaps capitulation below $4400 all the way down to next support where trading volume is high and confluence on the fib extension level 1.618 is. RSI symmetrical triangle broke to the downside suggesting further downside. A touch of support on the RSI as shown could signal an excellent buying opportunity. Lastly, we'd be looking for a 5th touch of the pattern (3 touches on one side and 2 touches on the other) for us to break out. For a bullish pattern, it helps that the 3 touches are on the bottom of the pattern. I hope you all find value in this chart! Feedback is welcomed and thanks for checking it out!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by dcardona1
XRP in a bullsh falling wedge vs bear break from sym triangleThough XRP has been consolidating well inside the falling wedge(which tend to break bullishly) we must still keep in mind that since we broke down from the 4hr symmetrical triangle pattern not too long ago, we may still have more room to dip seeing as how even though we reached our head and shoulder breakdown target, we didn't hit the drop target of the symmetrical triangle pattern just yet. That's not to say every pattern that breaks down reaches its exact price target, in fact, many fall short, many end up over too, but most are always pretty close to the exact target give or take a pip. To put it more simply. There is a good bull case here but also still a case for the bears. Being an optimist, I'm goin long and the longer we skirt along this current support line the greater the odds of it inverse barting upwards. Shown here on the chart are the bullish and bearish price target from each pattern. Also in blue and orange, the 1day chart 50(orange), and 200(blue simple moving averages and the current trajectory for their golden cross. Still a chance we could dip down to the next fib line under our current supprot before the ultimate bounce therefore finding away to still fulfill the bear target drop and trigger the bull falling wedge at the same time. All outcomes worth considering even though financial advice they are not. Thanks for reading!
Long
by DrDovetail
BTCUSD Models of continuation. Triangles.BASIC MODELS OF THE CONTINUATION OF THE TREND’S MOVE Graphic configurations which will be studies in this chapter are called the models of the trends continuation. These models usually mean that the period of the price stagnation indicated on the graph is just a pause in the main trend development and that the direction of the trend will be the same after they end. The second criterion between the fracture and continuation models is the duration of their formation. The construction of the first ones, which display serious changes on the price dynamics, require more time. The second ones are shorter. It is better to call them short-term and intermediate. Note how often we use the word “usually”. This is due to the fact that the interpretation of graphic models is subject, rather, to general patterns than to rigid rules. There are always exceptions in it. Even the elementary classification of price models is sometimes difficult. There are always exceptions in it. Even the elementary classification of price models is sometimes difficult. Typically, triangles are models of continuation of the trend, but at times they show a fracture of the trend. Although triangles are usually considered intermediate models, they sometimes appear on long-term graphs reflecting the development of the main trend. A variation of the triangle - an inverted triangle - usually means a fracture of the main upward trend. At times, even the "head and shoulders" - the most famous basic model of a fracture - may indicate a phase of consolidation TRIANGLES We will begin a discussion of patterns of continuation of the trend with consideration of triangles. There are three types of triangles - symmetrical, ascending and descending (sometimes called the fourth kind, known as the "expanding triangle" or "broadening formation," but it will be considered below). All triangles differ in shape and have different prognostic functions. SYMMETRICAL TRIANGLE A symmetrical triangle or "spiral" is, usually, a continuation of the trend. It marks a pause in the already existing trend, after which the latter resumes. An example of a bullish symmetrical triangle. Note the two converging lines. The model ends when the closing price is fixed on the market outside of any of the two trend lines. The vertical line on the left is the base of the model, and the point on the right where the two lines meet is the vertex. The minimum requirement for each triangle is the presence of four control points. To hold the trend line, as we remember, two points are always needed. Thus, in order to draw two converging trend lines, each of them must pass through at least two points. The completion of the triangle model takes some time, which is determined by the point of convergence of the two lines that is the top of the model. Usually, the price breakout should be in the direction of the previous trend, at a distance of half to 3/4 of the width of the triangle horizontally. The ASCENDING AND DISCENDING TRIANGLE Ascending and descending triangles are a kind of symmetric but have different prognostic functions. The figure below shows an example of an ascending triangle. Note that the top line of the trend is horizontal, and the bottom line is up. This model means that buyers are more active than sellers. Such a model is considered to be a bullish one and usually ends with a price breakout beyond the upper line. This model is completed when the closing price goes beyond the upper trend line significantly. A breakthrough must be accompanied by a sharp increase in volume. The upper resistance line turns into a support level with subsequent price drops. The minimum price benchmark is determined by measuring the height of the triangle (AB) and projecting this distance up from the breakout point C. The descending triangle model is a mirror reflection of the ascending triangle and is often considered a bearish model. Have a look at the downward upper line and horizontal bottom line on the picture below. This configuration which indicates that the more active the sellers are than the buyers usually ends with the future price drop. Completion of the model usually occurs with the closing price going beyond the lower trend line crucially and is accompanied by an increase in volume. Sometimes this is followed by a price return which meets resistance on the lower trend line. The measurement procedure for this model is exactly the same as for the ascending triangle. You should measure the height at the bottom on the left side of the model, and then project the distance down from the breakout point.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by EXCAVO
41
AGAINST the feelings of sell - nearest broken trendin nearest time (1-2 weeks- maybe first day of oct.) we may to see a another trend- market falling by 30% or go to the 8000$ in long term to the dec if GREEN lines will be broken - that may be a sign for buy = end of long term Bear trend BLUE lines is a resistance and support lines RED line is a strong support line , when red line will be broken we falling to the other support lines STAR and CAMERA - is a shoting time of action (22-25sept- 5 okt) 70 to 30 for Bear to the my previous predict- 4.8$ for BTC in shirt time predict(to the end of sept- first days of oct)- we will to see slow bull run to the ~6,5$
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Bombr