Get started

Falsebreak

GBPJPY Inverse Head & Shoulders Set-UpOANDA:GBPJPY has formed the Bullish Reversal Pattern, Inverse Head & Shoulders! Price has broken up above the Down-sloping Neckline to confirm the pattern. Once the Break is Validated by retesting the Neckline and is Supported, the pattern could deliver a good buying opportunity around the 188.5 area to take up to the February Resistance Level and potentially further! Fundamentally, GBP has GDP on Thursday **Beware of False Break creating a Bearish Trap. Watch for adequate Bullish Volume to Follow the Break and the Retest suggesting Bulls are interested!
Long
by Novi_Fibonacci
HBAR Seeking Golden Ratio After False Break of Consolidation?There's some big tells in what COINBASE:HBARUSD could potentially be getting ready to do so lets break it down on the Daily Chart! Since the High on Dec. 3rd @ .392, Price has steadily been forming what looks to be a Descending Triangle while finding Support in the ( .25 - .23 ) cent range. Bearish volume building and RSI going from Overbought to currently going Below 50 suggests further Bearish Price Action could occur! After the Positive USD Economic News Results for ISM Services and JOLTS Jobs Openings coming in well above Forecast, this seen the Dollar gain strength and other markets like Stocks and Crypto take a dive, in COINBASE:HBARUSD instance, it generated a False Break of the Descending Triangle to now where we see Price plummeting down to test the Support of this Consolidation Pattern. If Support breaks, we could see Price make a Retracement to the April 2024 Highs @ ( .18 - .15 ) This area looks especially favorable because: -From the Low before the Rally @ .04172 to the High of the Rally @ .392, lands the Fibonacci Golden Ratio levels priced @ ( .19619 - .17553 ) with the April 2024 High @ .1842 right in the Middle of this Zone! -The 200 EMA is curving up into the suspected Support of the April 2024 Highs if Price were to fall, it would test this as well! *If Price continues to fill the Pattern more, keep an eye out for more False Breaks, this will be evident with Price breaking either Area of Value ( Falling Resistance or Support Zone) followed with minimal Volume.
COINBASE:HBARUSDLong
by Novi_Fibonacci
3
UJ Prepping Falling Wedge Breakout To Start 2025?FX:USDJPY starts 2025 in what appears to be a Falling Wedge, but following the 50% Fibonacci Retracement based from the Low @ 148.639 to start December 2024 to the High @ 158.874 last month, Price seems to may be ready to setup for a Bullish Break of this Pattern. To see if FX:USDJPY has truly Broken Out of the Falling Wedge, here are some signals: 1) While price travels lower in the Falling Wedge, we can see Volume picks up the lower price goes 2) The Breaking Candle following the 2nd 50% Retracement touch generates a good amount of Bullish Volume compared to the similarly sized printed Bullish Candle following the 1st 50% Retracement touch (both candles marked in yellow to compare) 3) Following this Break, we see RSI Break above the 50 mark moving into Bullish territory. ** Buy Opportunities will come if Price successfully retest the Break of the Falling Resistance and finds Support. -- Beware of a False Break if Price decides to fall back down Below the Falling Resistance too soon before a legitimate test.
Long
by Novi_Fibonacci
Can Bulls Flip GU "On Its Head" @ 38.2% Level?Last week we saw FX:GBPUSD attempt to Break Above the 1.25 Resistance Zone that its been struggling with since November 2024 and was sent back down underneath following the Fed's decision to Hold Interest Rates. We can see that Price so far seems to be following a Head & Shoulders layout where Price now is declining down to the Low that formed the "Left Shoulder" @ ( 1.23745 - 1.23518 ) What makes this Price Range so favorable is that if you take the Fib Retracement Tool from the Low of the "Head" @ 1.20991 to the 2nd Touch of the "Neckline" @ 1.25232, the 38.2 % Retracement Level lands right at the potential Support level of the "Left Shoulder" -If Price finds Support at this level, we can suspect the Low to form the "Right Shoulder" then for Price to work back up to the "Neckline" for a Break and Close for Confirmation of Pattern to then look for more Buying Opportunities! *Price Breaking and Closing the Neckline, signaling Confirmation of Pattern, will deliver a 90% Success Rate to the expected Bullish outcome. *Watch for Increase in Volume after Price is Successfully Supported by Low of Left Shoulder and RSI to maintain Above 50! Fundamentally, GBP: Final Manufacturing PMI - Monday Final Services PMI - Wednesday Construction PMI/Bank Rate - Thursday USD: ISM Manufacturing PMI - Monday JOLTS - Tuesday ADP Non-Farm Employment/ISM Services PMI - Wednesday Unemployment Claims - Thursday AVG Hourly Earnings/ADP Non-Farm Employment/Unemployment Rate - Friday
Long
by Novi_Fibonacci
Could Cardano Bulls Push Past Pennant To $2 Resistance?!Cardano made an impressive 315% gain from the Low on Nov. 4th/5th @ .32 to the High on Dec. 3rd @ $1.32 following the Pro-Crypto Republican won Presidential Debate with not only BINANCE:ADAUSD seeing this kind of Rally but across the entire Crypto Market! Since that High, Price on Cardano has slipped into a Consolidation of what seems to be a Pennant Pattern with Lower Highs working into Higher Lows. Both Legs of this Triangle still need a 3rd Touch to Validate the Integrity and Existence of both Trend-lines. I would like to see Price make a 3rd Touch of the Rising Support around the ( .95 - .93 ) Range before moving back up to test the Falling Resistance. If Bulls are able to gain enough Support from the Rising Support, it could be enough to give them momentum to make a Bullish Break to the Falling Resistance and based from the Pattern Statistics: - Generate an Extension of the same size of Trend move that came prior to the formation of the Pattern called the "Flagpole" putting the Potential Extension of Price into the $2 Resistance Zone! **Caution: Triangle Patterns are known to fail 1/3 of the time so a Bearish Breakdown of this pattern is still possible. Watch for False Breaks/Breakouts!
COINBASE:ADAUSDLong
by Novi_Fibonacci
1
How To Navigate: Breakouts with Tools, Indicators & StrategyHaving a Clear and Precise understanding of whether you're dealing with a Breakout or False Breakout can help you: 1) Find potentially profitable opportunities & 2) Avoid making risky investment moves! Also knowing how to Confirm Trend Change can: 1) Rise probability of profitable trades & 2) Limit the total # taken! So today, I lay out the tools, indicators and tips I use to visualize and to make a decision! Examples: COINBASE:XLMUSD & BITSTAMP:XRPUSD Tools: - Trendline - Parallel Channel - Rectangle Indicators: - Volume - RSI - "True or False" Formula : Close + 20-25% Break + 5-6 Days Outside of Break = Breakout
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDEducation
by Novi_Fibonacci
36
XLM Falling Wedge Could Rise 135% to .95 On Bullish Break!Here I have COINBASE:XLMUSD on the Daily Chart. Low - .089449 High - .63445 Since the High, Price has been forming a Falling Wedge where we see Price Retraced to the Golden Ratio Zone @ .31339 where it tested the Falling Support then to find more Support at the 50% Fibonacci Level to now be currently Testing the Falling Resistance! If Price can generate a Bullish Break and continue finding Support, then I believe the prior 608% Price Increase we saw over November, could suggest a Potential 135% Price Increase to the .95 - $1 Area on a Bullish Break!! Indicators: -RSI Above 50 -BBTrend Printing Green Bars -Bullish Volume Building
BITFINEX:XLMUSDLong
by Novi_Fibonacci
1
Shiba Prints a Triangle, When Will It Break?Here on COINBASE:SHIBUSD we can see recent Price Action is outlining a Triangle Pattern having Pushed up through the Sept. Highs after the Pro-Crypto Trump Administration won the Presidency, and being rejected from May Highs! Price has been able to find Minor Support in the .000023 - .000022 area, but based on Tests 1 and 2 of the Falling Resistance showing Less Volume with each touch, Buyers seem to be losing their strength. Every Trendline needs at least 3 Tests to Validate their Strength and Probability of holding Price and we are currently waiting on that 3rd Test potentially in the .000027 area. -If the Falling Resistance is able to hold Price, we could see it decline to the nearest area of Structure being the Support from the Sept. Highs @ .000021 - .000020 -If the Falling Resistance is broken, Price creating a new Higher High must be followed by a significant amount of Volume Validating the Break otherwise it could be a False Break! The 200 EMA and DSR have printed a Golden Cross increasing the probability of Bullish moves to come! Indicators: - Price Trading Above 200 EMA - RSI Above 50 - BBTrend Printing Green Bars
COINBASE:SHIBUSDLong
by Novi_Fibonacci
HIFIUSDT | Ready for a Move Higher?Market Context Is HIFIUSDT poised to climb from this point? It’s looking possible! Chart Analysis We recently hit a new low on the daily chart, thanks to a Friday flush. However, this could be the recovery point we’ve been waiting for. Today’s price action hints at a potential false break on the daily timeframe, setting the stage for a rebound. Strategy This is a risky trade, but I’m a risk-taker! I’m betting on a bounce and aiming for our profit target. Let’s see if HIFI hits the right notes and moves higher! Stay tuned for updates and let’s watch this play out!
Long
by minno91
GNOUSDT | Ready to Move Lower?Market Context GNOUSDT recently saw a significant spike in volume, but we couldn't establish a new high on the daily chart. Now, we're consolidating within a trendline on the H4 timeframe, hinting at a possible false break. Strategy I’m betting on a move lower. This setup looks like it could play out quickly today, but we might see the downward momentum continue into tomorrow. It’s a thrilling moment—let’s see how this trade unfolds! Stay tuned for updates and let’s ride this potential dip together!
Short
by minno91
DXY Flagging Down 103 Soon?!Here I have DXY on the 4Hr Chart! Price has been in quite a Downtrend since the High @ 106.517 and now with the appearance of what seems to be a BEARISH BREAK of an ASCENDING CHANNEL which if we get a VALID BREAK and CLOSE out of this Channel .. This is signs of a Strong Continuation pattern, the BEAR FLAG! The Big Push behind this weakness comes in with the disappointing ISM Manufacturing PMI's showing quite a bit of Contraction! Final ISM Manufacturing PMI - 51.3 Actual v 50.9 Forecast ISM Manufacturing PMI - 48.7 Actual v 49.8 Forecast ISM Manufacturing Prices - 57 Actual v 60 Forecast *To Validate this Pattern, we need to see a STRONG CLOSE outside with a SOFT RETEST of the Break!
TVC:DXYShort
by Novi_Fibonacci
2
GJ Rising Wedge Break!Here I have GBP/JPY on the 1 HR chart! Price has been following what looks to be a Rising Resistance and Rising Support forming a RISING WEDGE!! Early this morning on disappointment of GBP strength, we seen price BREAK BEARISH strongly on the pattern!! I believe price is now retracing to the Rising Support of the Wedge to test as a VALID BREAK for confirmation that price will CONTINUE DOWN!! *Currently waiting on the Re-Test of the Rising Support Break! Upon VALIDITY, I will be looking to SELL!
Short
by Novi_Fibonacci
2
USD Waving The Flag in AU?!Here I have AUD/USD on the 1 Hr Chart! Tonight, we have seen Price make a drastic turn to the Upside back into this Descending Channel it was traveling in last week! With this False Break of the Falling Support, could we see the appearance of a BULL FLAG?!?! Now with a Bull Flag, we expect valid tests of both the Falling Resistance and Falling Support!! So far, we've had 2 tests and a False Break of the Support but we are missing a 3rd test of the Falling Resistance! With Price using this Local Support level, I believe we could see that 3rd test of the Resistance!! Now with NZD Low Inflation Expectation Results tonight, we're seeing some strength being put into AUD!! Fundamentally for the rest of the week: AUD- Wage Price Index (Tue) Employment Change, Unemployment Rate (Wed) USD- PPI, Powell Speaks (Tue) CPI, Retail Sales, Empire State Manufacturing Index (Wed) Unemployment Claims (Thur)
Long
by Novi_Fibonacci
6
❌ False Breakout PatternsA breakout that failed to proceed past a level, leading to a "false" breakout of that level, is referred to as a "false breakout." One of the most essential price action trading patterns to learn is the false double bottom and double top patterns, as a false-break is frequently a very strong indicator that price may be changing direction or that a trend may soon resume. False breakouts occur in all market scenarios, including trending, consolidating, and counter-trending. Trading Tips To Respect: ✅False breakouts can happen in markets that are trending, range-bound, or going against the trend. Watch for them in all market conditions since they frequently provide insightful hints about the direction the market will take. ✅Trading against a trend can be challenging, but one of the "best" approaches is to watch for a clear false breakout signal from a significant support or resistance level, as in the last example above. ✅False breakouts provide us with a "window" into the "fight" between expert and amateur traders, allowing us to engage in trading alongside them. Trading will appear to you in a different light if you can learn to recognize and trade false breakout patterns. 👤 @AlgoBuddy 📅 Daily Ideas about market update, psychology & indicators ❤️ If you appreciate our work , Please like, comment and follow ❤️
Education
by QuantVue
2