AUDUSD Rejected at 2013 Trend-line ResistanceAUDUSD was firmly rejected yesterday, following a false break above trend-line resistance dating back to April 2013. Pair traded to new highs on Thursday, before finishing the day decisively lower, printing a Shooting Star bearish reversal candle. Sellers will now look to push the pair lower to the .7535 - .7480 daily support zone. Breach of yesterday's high at .7733 invalidates.
Falsebreak
EURCHF Buy SetupThe buy zone is near a great supportive area and fibonacci level. We want to see MACD histogram creating higher lows as well. Ideal scenario would be if price creates a false break (green line), then break above last high (red line) and at the end a correction which will allows us to go long at better prices and to improve the risk:reward ratio.
NZDUSD Buy Near The Bullish Trend LineI'm following the two up trend lines as seen on the chart. Once the price enters the buy zone I want to see either false break + bullish divergence on M15/H1 or simply a bullish candlestick pattern on H1 for an entry. So we have two options to enter.
Best is to put the protection below the buy zone (below 0.7180 or so).
Use last swing high for your target.
EURAUD Sell IdeaWe have already seen a bearish false break on the H1 chart. Price has also broken down the last low, just now. We are now in the final step, where we want to see a pullback and sell from there.
On the M15 chart ideally we will see a double wave up and then we can sell if bearish divergence forms. I have marked for you a sell zone where i expect the pair to stop the correction and continue lower. There is also a bearish trend line from the highs which acts as dynamic resistance and perfect level to use for our stop loss.
USDCAD Buy and Sell ScenariosBUY SCENARIO
Pair is currently breaking above a short term trend line and I expect a duplication of the last wave up. If we get a small correction in order to improve the risk reward ratio we can jump into a buy Aiming the duplication zone where we can switch to a sell.
SELL SCENARIO
If the pair reached the sell zone as marked on the chart, look for a false break + bearish divergence as an entry, or alternatively sell with the break of the most recent up trend line to form.
Sell USDJPY D1 chart has made a false break of the down trend line and has also formed bearish hidden divergence.
You can either sell now market price protecting 107.00 level at least OR you can wait for the breakout of the range that the price is trading in right now.
Targets as shown in the chart.
intraday AUDUSD Buy Setup[There are two possible scenarios to buy the AUDUSD pair.
Scenario 1:
Wait for the price to enter the BUY ZONE on the H1 chart, wait for the divergence to complete itself (MACD tick up) and a bullish candle pattern to appear - then buy.
Scenario 2:
Drop to the M15 chart, wait for the price to enter the buy zone, let the price create a false break, then break above the most recent high, and only then buy during the correction.
Protection in both scenarios should be below last low created.
USDCAD Sell Towards The Trend Line After Another False BreakThere is a triple cycle completing itself on the H1 chart. If we get another false break as shown in the image below, we can look for a convergence principle - pair to gain bearish momentum by breaking the last low after the false break - and then sell the correction in order to improve the risk:reward ratio.
Gold Sell SetupThere is a great potential sell setup forming in Gold on the H4 chart. Commodity has been trading higher for the past few weeks and it is not approaching good reversal levels, even if only for the short term. The bearish divergence is another confirmation for the bearish outlook
Once the false breaks are there, next step is to look for a correction. Ideally we will get a double wave on the intraday charts M15/H1 and we can sell. The sell could be triggered either from a false break at the end of the double wave correction or when the short term up trend line (connecting the lows of the double wave) is broken down. First method is a bit more aggressive but the risk:reward is usually better compared to the second method which is more conservative.
Protection in both cases should be above the last high and the target is near the H4 up trend line (image above)..
Trend strength increasing, False break/ABCDPotential false break above 127.000. Sellers quickly managed to push price back below the level.
The bearish trend seems to increase in strength and looking at the measured move objective we could get a substancial bearish move if the false break manifests.
I would only look to short around 127.000 if we see a weak pullback into the level. If the move into the level is strong and impulsive the buyers may be making a new attempt to break through the level.
False break above key resistance in major downtrendWe might be seing a transition from the bearish into a new bull trend long term. Buyers managed to push through resistance around 0,68800 but the selling back below the level was pretty strong so this might be a false break.
If the buyers really were in control they should have managed to keep price above this level.
IF and only if we get a weak pullback into the level I would be open for a potential false break setup and short trade. Since the structure is indicating a transition, first target should be kept fairly close (0.65000) in case we see new buying strength coming in around that area if there really is a transition. If the sellers are able to maintain control and 0,65000 folds, the logical second target would be around 0,62500.
Only a new forceful push and close beyond 0,68800 would negate this bearish/false break scenario in my opinion.