Falsebreak
Weekly False Break - Head & Shoulders in focusLast week AUDJPY spiked 600 pips (low volume - holidays market)
The Bears tried to trigger a weekly H&S pattern by closing below the neckline - They failed.
It looks like we can see a short term pullback in AUDJPY... but pay close attention to that weekly H&S pattern as the year progresses.
Happy 2019!
USDJPY Buy IdeaD1 - Price is currently moving higher from the bottom of the channel.
H4 - Two false breaks, bullish divergence and higher highs.
We may now look for pullbacks to happen towards the critical zone.
Once the pullback completes itself, we may then start looking for buys with more bullish evidences.
EURCHF Buy IdeaH4 - After the false convergence, price has now made a false break and it is trading back inside the H4 chart range again.
H1 - We have a classical reversal setup formed.
As long as the last low around 1.1260 is holding, we may look for buys towards the top of the H4 range with bullish evidences.
USDJPY Sell IdeaD1 - Price is nearing the top of the channel. We have a critical zone that coincides with the top of this channel.
We may now expect the price to move higher and reach this critical zone with bearish divergence to form.
H4 - Multiple false breaks with bearish divergence.
Everything looks good here for the bears, we may now look for more bearish evidences in order to start looking for sells.
Cac is making a complex correctionThe bounce in Cac after the big October stock rout has pretty much run out of the energy. It has traded back into the 5080 - 5180 area before the last down leg. Now there is a sign that it might be breaking down from this trading range. However, the break looks lacking conviction and absence of follow through. It is possible that it gains down side momentum during the NY session together with the US equity. However, there is another possibility that the break is merely a false break and it is going to rip back to take out the upper resistance line and turn this pattern into an inverted head shoulder pattern.
Oil Double ScenarioW1 - Bearish convergence, we may now expect pullbacks to happen and then we may expect bearish continuation.
H4 - Two false breaks with bullish divergence.
We may now expect the price to move higher and break above the critical zone, we may then expect pullbacks to happen with hidden bullish divergence to form.
We may then start looking for buys with more bullish evidences.
We may look for buys until we get opposite signs. Once we get bearish evidences then its time to switch over to sells.
Bearish rotation after a false breakA false break of the yearly high is a sign of weakness. After the running the stops and testing the break out point, it is possible for the Dollar to make another high making a big MM like crown formation. But a high probability scenario is for it to test the major fib retracement level before coming down hard.
AUDUSD Buy IdeaD1 - Currently it looks like the price is breaking above the top of this channel.
We have two false breaks with bullish divergence, followed by bullish convergence.
H4 - We may now look for pullbacks to happen towards the uptrend line with bullish hidden divergence to form, we may then start looking for buys with bullish evidences.
AUDCAD Sell IdeaD1 - Price reached the downtrend line. If we didn’t get a valid breakout here, we may then expect the price to respect this trend line and move lower again.
H1 - Price broke above the critical zone, potential bearish divergence.
If this turns out to be a false break, we may then start looking for sells with bearish evidences. If this turns out to be a valid breakout and if the price holds above this critical zone then this setup will be invalidated.
Oil Sell IdeaW1 - Multiple false breaks, bearish divergence and the price is below the critical zone.
H4 - We have a critical zone that has formed.
Currently everything looks good here for the bears, if you find a good risk:reward ratio you may then start looking for sells with bearish evidences until we get any opposite signs.
USDCAD Sell IdeaH4 - Price has reached the top of the channel, we have bearish divergence and false break.
Until the price is below the top of the channel, we may look for sells with bearish evidences.
Invalidation: If the price breaks and holds above the top of the channel, then this setup will be invalidated (false breaks can be neglected).
Will bull run occur in July?Hello again everyone.
It's been awhile since i published TA here.
So, when we look at the bigger picture, there is a possibility of a false breakout.
a false breakout is a bullish sign.
The last time it touched the support line, a bull run occurred.
Comments are welcomed.
Feedbacks as well!
Monero Buy IdeaD1 - Price reached the bottom of the triangle, bullish divergence. There are two possible scenarios from here.
H4:
Scenario 1 - We may expect a correction to happen until price reaches the zone between 123.90 - 118.71. Once the correction completes itself, we may then start looking for buys.
Scenario 2 - In this scenario we may expect a deeper correction with the price moving lower below the bottom of the daily triangle, thus creating a false break for us. Once the false break completes itself we may then start looking for buys.
AUDUSD Sell IdeaD1 - Hidden divergence, price is currently retesting the bottom of the broken channel.
H4 - Bearish divergence with false break. Price is at the top of short term channel and is moving inside a triangle pattern.
Once the price breaks below the bottom of this triangle pattern we may start looking for sells with bearish evidences.
EURUSD [Daily, Long] False Break/Failure TestMarket has been in a range from the 1.163 level to 1.207 level. Price action towards support at 1.163 is clean. Price took out the previous candle structure low on 7 Nov 2017. There was strong price rejection following this. Sellers who short the break of the support are now trapped, many would sell off their position when price goes to breakeven, fuelling the buying pressure.
Entry: Market order of 1.16373
Stop: I placed a more aggressive stop loss just a few wicks below the candle structure, referenced on the 4hr timeframe as that is where my trade would be invalidated. Also to trade with a larger position to fulfil a 1:2 risk reward ratio.
TP: 1.19 as I foresee price rejection at this region due to resistance.
GBPCHF Buy IdeaD1 - Price has currently reached the confluence supportive zone formed by the bottom of the channel and the 161.8 fibo extension level of the double cycle.
H4 - Potential second false break and bullish divergence forming.
Once we get a second false break with bullish divergence we may consider it as evidences of bullish pressure and then we may start looking for buys.