GBPNZD DAY BEST LUCKY STAR DOJI STRATEGYTrading Doji candlestick as a stand-alone trigger signal is a bad idea. Price usually whipsaws around doji.
Note #1: In technical analysis, the Doji candle is a neutral pattern if it’s used as a stand-alone candlestick.
However, if the Doji candle it’s used in conjunction with the preceding price, we can establish a bullish or bearish bias.
A whipsaw pattern involves price moving chaotically above and below a certain key support and resistance level. Whipsaw patterns are also referred to as false breakouts. We have developed our Japanese Doji trading strategy around this price feature.
Step #1: For short trades we need a steady move downward, below the 14 –day MA
Even though most traders used this Japanese candlestick pattern as a reversal pattern, we have found out through some testing that the Doji candle performs best as a continuation pattern. So the first step we need to undertake is to determine the trend direction.
When we see the price moving steady downwards below the 14-day MA we have enough reasons to believe a downtrend is in progress.
Step #2: Look for a Doji Candlestick to develop near the 14-day MA and inside the previous candle price range.
Next, there are two more conditions that need to be satisfied for a valid trade setup. The first thing to consider is the location of the candlestick setup. We need the Doji candle to develop near the 14-period MA.
Secondly, we need the Doji candle to be contained inside the price range of the previous pattern. Basically, this will lead to the formation of another pattern called an inside bar.
So, we have a pattern within a pattern.
Step #3: Whipsaw pattern: Look for a false breakout above the previous two-bar pattern. Go short once we recover and break below the Doji candle opening price
Now, we’re going to bring to light how we use the whipsaw pattern to our advantage.
The Doji candles are very well-known candlestick patterns for producing a lot of false breakouts. We also know that a break of a level against the prevailing trend has fewer chances to success.
So, by putting all these pieces of the puzzle together we were able to develop one of the best Doji strategies, which eliminate the scenario where your stop loss is prematurely triggered.
After the false breakout, we wait for the price to recover and we only sell once we get price breakouts the bearish Doji candle opening price.
Note #2: We want everything to happen within the first candle after the Doji bar. So the false breakout and our entry should be immediately on the next bar following the Doji candlestick.
Let’s now determine an appropriate place to hide our protective stop loss and a proper way to exit our trade.
Step #4: Place protective SL above the current daily candle high. Take profit once we break below the inside bar pattern or a support level.
We aren’t going to stay in this trade for a very long period of time. That’s the reason why we exit our profitable trade once we break below the inside bar pattern or nearest sup/res. When it comes to placing our protective stop loss, we can hide it above the high of the candle that triggered our entry.
Long trade is just opposite setups.
Falsebreakout
Very very serious question for you guys.....why do guys like me who get NEARLY ALL OF MY CALLS ALMOST SPOT ON!!!!! get like 200 views with 4 likes... as seen here
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www.tradingview.com
who were dead wrong and this
ARE GETTING LIKE 15,000 VIEWS AND HUNDREDS OF LIKES!!!
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LCAM3 false breakout?BMFBOVESPA:LCAM3 released results and the market made a breakout in the opening. However, the price closed below yesterday, showing a false breakout. We are expecting a correction in prices until mma21.
Breakout or False Breakout? On the HTF we see BTC/USD create significant support zones at the $6,100.00 level. Price respected this support line several times as the lower highs using the $6,100 as a base creates a triangle pattern.
We have already experienced a breakout which got us to the $8,400 levels with a retest and bounced back, using that former resistance trendline as support. However, this bullish activity could simply be a false breakout as we noticed a 5% drop placing BTC under the 0.61 fib zone and minor resistance level of $7,800. We must keep our eye on the close of the daily candle above that zone if we are to expect bullish momentum. Otherwise, we can expect the price to once again test that $6,000 zone again.
Using fibonacci extensions and previously structure as reference points we can create several take profit zones if the candle does close above the triangle pattern once more. The targets are as follows: $9,200 (0.78), $10,100 (1.281), $17,150 (2.68).
I smell a BULL TRAP.I felt uncomfortable when the candles move up and down in square wave in matter of minutes on H1 chart as if nobody is trading it.
This movement shouldn't appear in a bullish market.
Also, the volume for each daily candles are too low compare to panic selling during 2018-03-06 - 2018-03-17 and 2018-03-25 - 2018-04-01.
The volume for each candle should be around 60K to 100K, but there's only 20K - 40K.
The rally is up too much, too fast, too easy.
I compare a slope for this rally among other uptrends.
The closest one that I can find was during 2017-08-03 to 2017-08-19.
They have higher volume than the false rally.
I smell a BULL TRAP. A big one.
I think it will land around 7500 back to the old long term support.
With the red line resistance become support, we will have 2 fold up trend, and the real battle will begin.
For those who buy the dips before 12th April (the big bounce). You are still safe (almost).
Just don't panic sell it and cause price to go lower :wink :wink.
For now, leave it alone don't do anything irrational.
Always trade with the trend, not counter it.
If you're still on the rally. Put your stop loss ready. You can ride it for a while, but be cautious.
(4 HOURLY) GBPJPY (SHORT)-Description
potential false breakout, price closed above channel but was unable to sustain this and re-entered the channel. i am anticipating price to fall to the support of the channel or moving averages may act as dynamic support so, i am anticiapting 2 enteries, 1st held till moving average (dark blue MA), 2nd held till channel support.
EURUSD : Stoploss Hunters in ActionA simple analysis of trading psychology that was recently happened on EURUSD.
1. Price broke through the upper trendline, breakout players jumping in and start buying the pairs.
2. The big players(institutional, hedge funds, etc) let the market ran for a while to wait until a lot of bulls entered the market.
3. Most of novice traders are easy to read, so the big players can predict their entries and stoploss. In this case, most of the entry and stoploss triggers are probably set on these 2 lines.
4. Once the bullish momentum slowly built up, those big players started pouring sell orders in huge chunks, drowning all the retail traders who had taken buy position thinking the breakout would continue.
5. Price slowly going down even though most of traders were sure the breakout was a sign that price might go higher. Some novice might have thought that this bearish movement was just some retracement before price launch like a rocket.
6. The institutional traders, this time, managed to push price down until it started hitting the stoplosses of the retail traders. A stoploss of a long position equals as a sell order when triggered.
These triggered stoploss, combined with new sellers that jumping in after seeing a strong selling pressures, can only fuel the bearish momentum even more, resulting in an even bigger selling pressure.
USDCAD Fake Breakout?Is this a possible break out or just a fake break out.
I believe this is an actual break out but i expect to come back to retest the trendline before heading back down.
Regardless I have a pending buy or sell order depending on whether it returns back into consolidation or continues to move down.
I have 20 pip stop losses for both scenarios
In Bits and Pieces? Don't Watch! (BTC)Here again for another Doc breakdown, this time our beloved Bitcoin.
On the 4h chart we see our ruler and fearless leader, BTC taking the charge from 7950s to 9400s. Holy canoli, thats almost a 20% jump!!! Then you start doing the mental math in your head: If I had just put 100 dollars of my hard earned USD(or USDT hehe) yesterday, I would have made 20 bucks! Pretty soon your quitting your day job, buying name brand toothpaste, and trading in your 20 year old rusty bike for a new sexy thing with 29 inch wheels... All because of that 20% jump in BTC. OKayyyy maybe I'm getting a little a head of myself(or a lot!), let's cut to the chase as why that's wrong.
If you don't want to read anything else, read this: The jump we are seeing here is most likely a false breakout. Support and Resistance levels are at 8100s and 9800s respectively. I NEVER speak in certain terms because as technical analysts, we are like weathermen. BUT, just like weathermen, we should adjust to any new developments which come out.
Let the Doctor diagnose this chart. First, we are STILL in a downwards trend (Red parallel channel), do not forget this. Second, yes we did see almost a 20% jump since yesterday's low, but peep the volume now and then(circled to the left in green). The volume with this increase is PUNY compared to before (which wasn't even a sustained reversal but certainly had more volume backing it then now!). Lastly, we are already seeing lower-highs on the next 4 hr candlestick.
Also, check the 2hr chart below for fun. If you look at the candlesticks they are already starting to trend down again with waning buyer momentum. Check the MACD too, losing buyer momentum.
I will continue to watch our fearless master of the crypto, BTC.
Happy trading!
-Dr.Don't Watch
PVR LTD Short term positional callCMP: 1460, Closing based SL 1385, Targets 1519, 1540, 1575
Technicals:
Trend line Breakout
Swing high breakout
trendline support
false breakout retracement
Above SMA volumes
Note: All levels are for Education purpose and pls contact financial advisor before investing
How to Spot False BreakoutsEverything is described on the chart.
Another thing are bull traps. These happen when there is NO retest of resistance and volume may be lacking. You can always have an uptrend without an actual "breakout." Breakouts clarify STRONG uptrends that are likely to continue.
Also, notice how when the volume peeked we formed a doji. This means that a lot of people came in and took profits because they knew the trend was weak.
This one is very weak and will be shot down. Hope this helps!