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Falsebreakout

🥇 GOLD - Price is breaking support but not falling yetGold is breaking a new milestone and breaking the support of the descending price channel. Price is consolidating between the downtrend line and 1933.9 support, pre-breakdown consolidation may break the support and price will fly downwards TA on the high timeframe: 1) Break of support at 1938 (lower boundary of the global range 2) Consolidation below the support is forming 3) Negative fundamental background for gold TA on the low timeframe: 1)Trend support is broken, price is consolidating lower 2)If 1933.9 is not broken, then there will be a false break of support and price will head towards 1950 Key support📉: 1933.9 Key resistance📈: 1938.7
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by AndeWave
14
A Trade Example in The Nasdaq Futures Using a Simple TA ConceptThis was a really clean example of a really basic price action based set-up. On the short-lived Holy Grail trade(See my most recent live stream for a walkthrough of the holy grail trade set-up) that resulted in a false breakout, price begins to reverse and want to cross back through the established range on the 5 minute chart, as we begin tending back towards the middle of the range, we want to enter a trade, playing short term, attempting to take out the range high. I am currently working on getting my profits off the table much earlier and not being a "dick for a tick" so any time I get a trade between 2-4 R in my favor, I am taking my profits and running. I narrate all of this in this video CME_MINI:MNQ1!
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by outlier1500
GOLD → Buyer weakness leads to a retest of support OANDA:XAUUSD is forming a false break of support after which a bullish impulse is developing, which is predictable, but within the framework of the local rally the price cannot update the local maximum, which may indicate buyer weakness A fall is formed after the establishment of LH 1972. The price breaks the 1959 level and forms a consolidation below the level. A consolidation in this area may form a potential for further decline, which may form another retest of 1948 support, and this movement will already form a potential for a possible breakout of this area with a further decline to 1933. After the breakout of the uptrend, a flat is formed and the price can stay within these limits for quite a long time, but there are no preconditions for breaking through the flat resistance or flat support. We are waiting for the price to approach the boundary and will follow the reaction. Support levels: 1953, 1948 Resistance levels: 1959, 1972. I expect the price to decline to the flat support. Further reaction to the level of 1948 will show the medium-term potential (rebound or breakout to 1933 is possible). Regards R. Linda!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
25
🥇GOLD - A flat is formed. Probable rebound from resistanceGold tends to rise as high as possible. But! Data will be published soon, most likely the market may be preparing for a rate hike. TA on a high timeframe: 1) A surge in volumes may force the price to test the resistance of 1984. A false breakdown is possible even when bad news is published 2) The area of liquidity that the market is primarily interested in is around 1978-1985, and then the one around 1950 TA on a low timeframe: 1) A retest of 1973 can lead to an impulse to 1983. 2) It is difficult to say what the result will be in terms of the rate and inflation, so the market may shake up a lot tonight. 3) In priority, since the situation is worse than neutral, the price may weaken against the background of a rate hike and a strengthening dollar. Key Resistance📈: 1973, 1983 Key Support📉: 1963
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by AndeWave
9
GBPAUD → False breakdown and upward movement to retestFX:GBPAUD continues to form a bullish trend, as the high timeframe tells us. The price makes a false breakdown of the moving average and returns to the range. The price has returned to the ascending price channel and may form a retest or consolidation above the support level in the nearest future. At the moment the price is squeezed within the flat 1.9184 and 1.9035. Most likely the price has the upper boundary of the range as a target. An intraday retest of resistance may follow for a breakout. Since we have an uptrend, a false breakout of support and MA-200, the market is ready to continue rising. Another breakout attempt at 1.9184 may be successful and the price may show active growth. Support levels: 1.9035, trend support Resistance levels: 1.9184 I expect a retest of resistance with a subsequent breakout. Medium-term target: 1.9393. Regards R. Linda!
Long
by RLinda
13
GBPUSD → A FB and a retest of 0.618 could send the price to 1.26FX:GBPUSD forms a false breakdown of a strong resistance area. A downward correction is formed against the background of local strengthening of the dollar index On the chart, the currency pair retests the key support line at 1.2848. A pre-breakdown consolidation is formed against the background of correction. The price overcomes the area of 0.5 Fibo and is directed to test 0.618. If the currency pair breaks 1.28000, the correction format will turn into a change of trend and the price may fall to 1.26000 within the upward price range. Regarding 1.2848 there are two possible scenarios, a false breakout with subsequent growth to 1.3000. Or breakout and price entry to 1.2848-1.26800. In this case our target will be the support. MA-50 acts as resistance, while MA-200 is preparing to take a retest from the price Resistance levels: 0.5 fibo, 1.2965 Support levels: 1.2848, 0.618 fibo. I expect the formation of pre-breakdown consolidation and possible breakout with further price decline to 1.26800. Regards R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
9
💱GBPAUD - False breakdown and reversal setups GBPAUD is forming a false breakout and a global reversal pattern that could send the price 400 pips down. TA on the high timeframe: 1) False breakout of the resistance zone: 1.9183 - 1.9035 2) Price breaks the base of the reversal pattern and forms an impulse. TA on the low timeframe: 1) The H&S reversal pattern starts the realization phase 2) As the price is in a global flat, we have the potential for a decline to 1.86000 3) Price breaks 1.889, most likely a retest or bounce to 1.8988 before further decline. Key support📉: 1.8894, 1.8782 Key resistance📈: 1.8988
Short
by AndeWave
5
🥇GOLD - Resistance Retest. Correction to 1972-1963Gold is testing a strong resistance area that could push the price back quite a bit. If the price shows strength against the bears and signals further upside, we will take advantage of it TA on the high timeframe: 1) Price is testing the global flat resistance. A rebound from the resistance is possible 2) The bullish trend is resuming 3) At the same time candlestick analysis suggests the continuation of growth TA on the low timeframe: 1) Price forms a retest of the uptrend resistance. 2) After a false breakdown, consolidation under the level is formed. 3) The closest support that price can aim for is 1972. This could then be trend support 4) Price returning to trend resistance or to 1984 for a retest will signal a breakout and a continuation up to 1999. Key support📉: 1972, 1963 Key resistance📈: 1980, 1984
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by AndeWave
13
NZDUSD → Long retest. High chance of a false breakdown FX:NZDUSD is forming a retest of the resistance at 0.63809. We seem to have a bullish trend after breaking the downtrend, but there is a high probability of a false breakdown and correction. On the daily timeframe the price approached a strong resistance area. A retest of the 0.63800 level, formed in early May, is being formed after quite a lot of time and a large pool of liquidity has been formed above this area, which can prevent the price from going up from the first time. The scenario is as follows: from the resistance 0.63800 may be followed by a decline either to 0.63050, or a pullback less and a quick retest of the resistance, which will form a pre-breakdown consolidation and break the level. Countertrend trades should be opened with reduced risk. In the medium term, the price may continue to strengthen on the background of a weak dollar. Support levels: 0.6305 Resistance levels: 0.63800, 0.6515. I expect a correction in the near future and a slight decline to 0.236 or 0.382 fibo followed by a retest of resistance and an attempt to breakout. Regards R. Linda!
by RLinda
13
💱NZDUSD - Complex situation on a simple chart NZDUSD is forming a false breakout that could potentially send the price to the bottom. Price is testing key fibo areas and could give a bounce. TA on the high timeframe: 1) False break of 0.6305 forms bearish momentum 2) Price is aiming for the liquidity area of 0.62000 TA on the low timeframe: 1) A retest of 0.382 fibo is formed, which may form a correction to 0.6305, after which the price may again continue its fall 2) At the moment, 0.63328 may be an important target in terms of downward movement. 3) The trend is changing, but there has been no confirmation yet, a false breakout may be false Key resistance📈: 0.6305 Key support📉: 0.6232
Short
by AndeWave
6
💱USDCAD - False breakdown and flat formation is possibleUSDCAD formed a head and shoulders after a false breakdown of key resistance. It was at this point that the dollar began to weaken and led the currency pair to test the local bottom at 1.30900 TA on the high timeframe: 1) A false break of resistance sends the price to support at 1.3138 2) Since the forex market is flat more than 70% of the time, the price is likely to form a false break of support and start to strengthen TA on the low timeframe: 1) A false breakout is forming against the local support at 1.31179. A rebound to the resistance is possible 2) Fibo levels can also serve as a magnet for correction. 3) There are high chances of flat formation, the price may form a rebound before further fall. Key support📉: 1.31179 Key resistance📈: 1.31776
Long
by AndeWave
8
TSLA: False Breakout + Exhaustion Bar.• TSLA did a false breakout from the $200, and this key point is working as a resistance again today. The $200 is our most important key point, as I already mentioned in my previous analysis (link below this post, as usual); • Today’s movement is rejecting Friday’s candlestick, which was a powerful candle that broke the $200 resistance. This gives the impression of an Exhaustion Bar; • In order to avoid a sharper correction, TSLA would need to do a bullish reaction as soon as possible. Otherwise, it could drop all the way down to the $187 again; • The $187 is our key support, and only if TSLA loses it, the trend will reverse and become bearish again; • So far, TSLA has been doing higher highs/lows. It broke the previous top last Friday, and if TSLA finds a support above the $187 area, this will reinforce a bullish thesis; • In this scenario, TSLA would just keep trending, and the $217 would be its next target. It all depends on how it’ll react in the next couple of days; • For now, it appears TSLA triggered an Exhaustion Bar, and as the name suggests, this indicates exhaustion. I’ll keep you updated on this, as usual. Remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analysis!
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
8
AUDUSD - We Keep On Going?I've published an analysis about the head and shoulder last week, which was looking really good on paper. It broke the neck line but then, it came back right in, looking more like a fake out than an actual break. I've collected something from the the neckline break but, I had to close before TP because of the strong reversal that happened last friday. But anyway, that forced me to take back my technical analysis, and I've found more evidences in favor of a rebound of the aussie, conforting the fact that we might be facing a fakeout. Technically we're still in an uptrend. Even though we've been falling lately, the uptrend's structure remains intact, and we should treat it for what it is. The situation : 1) We're in an uptrend 2) We've experienced some weakness lately 3) Price just visited an imbalance area (look left) 4) Price is touching 2 major trendlines and seems like it's reacting to it 5) Last Daily candle is a bullish pinbar in an uptrend, last 2 H12 candles are making a bullish tweezer, last 3 H8 candles form a morning star This one is a tricky one because, if we forget the head and shoulder, it's a clear buy, with strong candlestick formations at a clear level, so a long would be valid, but in the other hand, the price has retraced right to the neckline level, which is extremely precise in this situation. Price could still potentially break down and both scenarios could play out. But the favor goes for the rebound on the trendline because it is with the trend. If price was to break both trenline, we'd have a confirmation for a trend change, even if it was to go in a range for a while, but as is, we're in a uptrend. I'll be watching this one until I get a clearer picture of what's going on. I'd like to have confirmation about whether or not price wants to stay under or above the neck line until I make a move Cheers everyone and safe trading!!!
by aemerydufoug
❌ False Breakout PatternsA breakout that failed to proceed past a level, leading to a "false" breakout of that level, is referred to as a "false breakout." One of the most essential price action trading patterns to learn is the false double bottom and double top patterns, as a false-break is frequently a very strong indicator that price may be changing direction or that a trend may soon resume. False breakouts occur in all market scenarios, including trending, consolidating, and counter-trending. Trading Tips To Respect: ✅False breakouts can happen in markets that are trending, range-bound, or going against the trend. Watch for them in all market conditions since they frequently provide insightful hints about the direction the market will take. ✅Trading against a trend can be challenging, but one of the "best" approaches is to watch for a clear false breakout signal from a significant support or resistance level, as in the last example above. ✅False breakouts provide us with a "window" into the "fight" between expert and amateur traders, allowing us to engage in trading alongside them. Trading will appear to you in a different light if you can learn to recognize and trade false breakout patterns. 👤 @AlgoBuddy 📅 Daily Ideas about market update, psychology & indicators ❤️ If you appreciate our work , Please like, comment and follow ❤️
Education
by QuantVue
2
BTCUSDT is inside an ascending channel during consolidationBitcoin had a false breakout from the ascending channel at 18200$ area. The market grabbed new liquidity and creates a new breakout from the old low and channel. the price bounced from the new low until the 0.618 Fibonacci level, that level is crucial for the retracement. Thus the price started with the consolidation phase with a clear range, where the price created the ascending channel inside it and the market printed HH (higher High) and HL (Higher Low). Usually, it's an uptrend pattern. on the 17400$, Bitcoin has the supply area, where the market grabbed the liquidity to create a new breakout and new Low, for that reason we sign it as "Key Level". How to approach it? The price could create a new breakout from the consolidation channel and retest again the Supply area as resistance, in that case we are going to monitor it in order to apply Plancton's Rules ––––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <= 1h structure. Follow the Shrimp 🦐
by InkyGrip
22
Don't miss the greatest buying opportunity. When BTC bottom? Dear community and my faithful followers, if you want to make life-changing decisions and become super rich don't wait lower prices. It isn't financial advise but I don't want you to make the same mistakes I made some years ago and don't miss the best buying opportunities. Otherwise you will blame and slap yourselves couple months later not buying #BTC and #altcoin at current levels. As I mentioned many times in my previous analyses #BTC bottomed at 17.5K in June 2022 and the recent dump to 15.5K is a fake breakdown/ bear trap/ with double bottom like 2021 November top which was a bull trap/ fake breakout/ with double top. My worst case scenario is 13.7-14K but I expect new rally from this point. As you see on my chart, green rectangles are accumulation zones. Best buying opportunities happens when price moves inside green rectangle and 1st indicator flashes green dot penetrating in a green zone and 2d indicator flashes vertical green line and blue line appears in 25-30 zone. It happened 3 times in the whole BTC history. If you like my ideas, don't forget to like and follow me please. I will appreciate a lot.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by ergal91
7
XAGUSD | New perspective Despite been on a long term bearish momentum since the beginning of the year, the breakout of the bearish trend line on the daily timeframe a couple of weeks ago opened up the possibility of a potential reversal pattern in the coming week(s). However, since the breakout of the trendline we have noticed the appearance of a consolidation phase just above the $21.000 zone which also reflects selling pressure in the last 2 weeks. Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
OANDA:XAGUSD
by darcsherry
1