Bitten Apple.The rally of mid-March was fueled by Corporate Buy Backs. Retail investors, Hedges, and Institutions are still net sellers. QE per the Fed officially "ended" today. The consumer is in worse shape yet again and this will reflect in retail soon as people don't need a new phone, laptop every year and switch to every other or two years. Ironic though that Apple hasn't released guidance for their earnings.
We may see a double top if the buy-backs continue, even the possibility of setting a new ATH. There is a possibility that the S&P could set a new ATH before the actual collapse takes place. Let's see.
RSI and MACD have plenty of room to fall. MACD on 1M is getting closer to crossing into a bearish sentiment. 200MA is $155. If Apple fails to break $178 and remain there or if the next few trading days are sellers, we could see this chart play out as Apple heads back to $160s area.
FANG
FANG is not holding up.Happy Weekend Everyone.
I put together a custom FANG Plus index to track the overall strength of the popular large cap growth stocks as these stocks have been the most widely held stocks for the past several years. This particular chart is a weekly candle chart using Fibonacci retracement levels taking the previous low from the past calendar year to the last high. As you can see the index retraced 100% of the previous 1 year move and then rallied back to the 50% retracement level. However that 50% retracement level proved to be hard resistance as we can see on the chart. Moreover, the last three weekly candles completed a bearish evening star pattern and the closing weekly candle is a bearish engulphing. While the two patterns are not text book perfect, the main tenets are in place IMO. Also bearish is that the basket of stocks could not hold the 30 Week EMA. RSI seems to confirm this negative setup. The RSI did get into positive territory during the rally from the low, but it failed to hold and fell back into the bearish regime. If the downtrend continues the 78% retracement level could offer support. Seasonality says that stocks should do well for April. It doesn't say that all stocks should do well. Time will tell. Anyway I found this interesting.
Good luck to all.
NASDAQ:AMZN
NASDAQ:AAPL
NASDAQ:GOOG
NASDAQ:FB
NASDAQ:NVDA
NASDAQ:ADBE
NASDAQ:MSFT
NASDAQ:NFLX
NASDAQ:TSLA
On another note, I have Carolyn Boroden's book on Fibonacci Trading but I find it lacking. If anyone has a good book recommendation on Fibonacci please leave it in the comments below. Thank you!
FANG Complex TeeteringThis is an equally weighted representation of the FANG+ Complex. Needless to say an important group for the indexes. The good: The group is above support level and the point of control. The bad, the group is below the 25 and 50 week SMA and those moving averages are starting to curl downwards. Bulls would like to see the group retake the moving averages especially the 50 week as it looks to be resistance the last two weeks. The bears would like to see a break of support followed by a break in the point of control. As long as support holds and the 50 week offers resistance then the indexes are most likely to continue to chop then make a decisive break in either direction.
Thoughts?
AAPL - Daily / Apple Joins the Death Cross Cult of FANGsApple's Impulse Weakening Impulse Structure has finally broken.
We warned of this on February 6th, the Retracement was concluding
as many of the FANGs were seeing 55/199 Crosses occurring.
2C was a weak retracement, we were looking forward to more, but
it simply was not to be.
Yields crossing 1.691 were our LIS for the cross over 2% and onto 2.06
to and through 2.082 / 2.12 / 2.189 / 2.26 / 2.28 and on to the UTL
with a potential Throw over to 2.5%.
Apple will lead 3A (a powerful move lower to new lows) as its weighting
is sizeable for NQ.
As previously indicated 141s are the Initial Price Objective for 3/5 IT.
We believe it can move lower to the 411 EMA @ ~ 133.4.0.
Apple has lost the Edge in innovation and is unable to complete with the
Google's innovations and breadth of Carrier Market Integration.
After months of research into Global Access - the Edge Google has over
Apple is immense. The Pixel 6 is functionally a very basic, well made
Smartphone.
Where it excels is in AI Integration and Carrier switching.
I have begun converting to Google's Hardware and Service for all lines and
services, consolidating a number of Business Lines for Global use while
traveling outside the United States.
Apple is unable to offer anything remotely competitive, their claims to
developing a true Global Phone with improved carrier switching is quite
distant at this point in time.
Margin compression, Debt, a very Real Lack of Innovation (Share Buybacks
as opposed to CapEx Investment), and Accountants gaming the Future... Unlikely
Apple will ever return to its former Halcyon days as a leading TECH Innovator.
______________________________________________________________________
Instead, APPLE will be the Anchor that drags the NQ to new Lows in 3/5 IT and
then 5/5 for the IT Correction.
5/5 will then take this Overhyped Cult to new ATHs into Q3 of 2022.
From there our price Target remains $35 into 2025.
Nasdaq Earnings RallyBased on nothing else but more speculation, the Nasdaq may rally. Let's see how this plays out for February since the Feds QE taps are closing this month. Will they reverse and pump more 0% funny money? I don't think they'll reverse until there is a major downtrend which will happen after this earnings rally. The two resistance levels are marked, although tomorrow 2/2 the Nasdaq should break through.
I still hold strong to a bear market based on countless economic issues from:
Inflation
Poor Retail
Pending Home Sales Decline
Tapering Ending in Feb
Balance Sheet Reduction
Raising Rates
0.1% Q1 GDP estimate by Atl Fed.
When the Fed pumps, logical news doesn't matter. Good news is good, and bad news is good. This alone tells you this a bubble, where equities no longer react because retail investors influence has become smaller and smaller in equities. Retail investors are but a drop in the bucket compared to $120 Billion in 0% QE money.
$NFLX - Foreshadowing the MarketsNetflix collapsed and touched its pre-covid crash peak. Looking at the FANGplus Complex as a group, there's cracks in the armor. Is Netflix a warning on what is yet to come? Do markets want to trade back down to their pre-covid crash peak? The weight of the evidence is certainly pointing towards a sizeable correction.
Thoughts?
$FANG Complex looking vulnerable This is a monthly candle chart of the FANG complex. The last time the group had a monthly close below it's 10 Month moving average it traded back down towards its trend line. The stocks traded down for about 5 months and consolidated for another 8 months, when looking at them as a group. If you have a 401K, IRA, and 529 plans consider how much exposure you have to this mix. The complex could fall quite a bit and not break the long term up trend. Considering the month isn't over quite yet this chart is premature. I figured it was an interesting look none the less.
Thoughts, feelings, ideas?
Here's the link to the watch list:
www.tradingview.com
Nasdaq Tumble?Today, we had the much anticipated Fed hearing and it did little to encourage markets in either way. This chart is based on what most experts, even the naive ones on CNBC are now expecting a modest correction of 15%. Checking on a few indicators here, we can see the MACD has crossed into bearish territory and couple that with the Fed raising rates, tapering, and inflation we can see something building up.
I do not believe it will be a market crash. Employment is up. The consumer is doing good. Debt is being paid off and there is $3 trillion dollars in saving/checking accounts. I do believe we will see a much needed correction.
$QQQ Bullish Reversal or Dead Cat Bounce?This is a daily candle chart of the Q's. I'm not to convinced that todays action was anything material to the trend. The major support line from the covid trough breakout is broken. Minor support from the peak at $382.11 has not been reclaimed. The index is below the 50 day SMA. Moreover, the support line on the RSI that coincides with the previous tests of the minor support at $382.11 also failed to be reclaimed on todays rally. The long term trend is still in tact IMO and my thought process is the QQQ consolidates vs breaking down and correcting. Thoughts?
Last Major Support for AmazonI posted a few months ago Amazon was in a terminal formation. Like a lot of stuff, there was an upside overthrow to knock out any remaining bears, and now we are looking to test the long term support from the 2008 lows. Below that, there are a few other support lines, but the next MAJOR support is around 950-1000 depending on time frame of a drop. Amazon actually probably has a business set up to be fairly insulated from a lot of COVID 19 effects, but none of that is going to matter given the structural setup here and valuations. Cloud stands to see a big fall in growth / revenue when a lot of the businesses that spend money on the Amazon cloud shutter or pare down their capex spending significantly.
[stock] MicroSectors FANG 3X ETF - FNGU - one word - WOW!MicroSectors FANG 3X ETF - For the buy and hold investor - So you don't think it is possible for an ETF to move 10 - 25% quickly with the market? Then try researching 3X ETFs. Add MicroSectors FANG index 3X ETF - FNGU - and the inverse FNGD to your watch list. Edutainment Purposes Only!
Let's get into some stock trades #3- NetflixNetflix has been chopping for more than a year now and consolidating really hard, but with a clear emphasis on the upside. It's still showing signs of strength and could move much higher pretty soon given that it's been in this range for 14 months. Don't know much about the financials of Netflix but I do know it's growing and is one of those companies that has a huge brand and is like many other companies more of a network than a company.
The path I've drawn isn't the path I think it will follow, but the path that it might follow if it wants to create more pain for all those that are long right now.