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Fangman

ES1! - 4HR - Santa and His (REIN?)Bulls! - LONGSANATA AND HIS REINBULLS ARE COMING TO TOWN!! (doesn't feel catchy, but it fits.. I guess?) Next weeks(possibly even months) outlook is looking pretty dang clear.. The bulls are in full force!! -Shorts squeezed out -Good Ol' Cup n Handle formation -Break through the 50D,20D, moving averages, bounced back with 100% recover. -Heavy long volume accumulated in the Value Zone( Volume Profile - Point of Control) Excluding the recent drop, there's been 4 weeks of balance between November and December between 4650-7010 price area. With that being said, I believe there's still long-term holders that accumulated in the Nov5-24th + the 3 day balance between Dec8th,Dec 10th. There's a ton of bulls in the game right now!! With the recent drop and recover, it's apparent the bears couldn't shake the bulls and the longs are back in FULL FORCE. An explosive move up has been bottling for sometime now and it's ready to POP! The coming weeks should be pretty straight forward, its clearer than ever that this market is going up.. Looking to end the year strong, I'll be entering with heavy conviction and heavy options futures contracts this month. Here's a look at a trade im entering coming into Monday: Enter at pullback: 4687(Value Zone + .382 Fib Correction from last leg up on 30m chart) Targets: 4800(Long Term TL,) 4874(1:1 Fib Ext) Stop: 4681(Break below value zone + violation of the baby cup n handle formation and likelihood of further chop n balance) This could top my chart for one of my best trades if it plays out. I may or may not get the desired entry at the pullback as it's definitely likely we could see a gap up Sunday/Monday. I'll take the entry at the break of balance either way and adjust my stops. A little helpful link to check the historical average gains/losses of specific months, take a look at December: 53 up years; 18 down years; ave. return = 1.39%. Here's the link: www.moneychimp.com 30m chart:
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by GeneticHustle
2
October 25 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, NewsDescription: An analysis for the week ahead. Points of Interest: $3,406.75 Excess Low; $3,470 Balance-Area High. Technical: Broad-market equity indices ended the week lower with S&P 500 retracing nearly 40% of the rally that began after the September sell-off. During Last Week’s Action: Alongside waning fiscal stimulus hopes, U.S. index products failed to show continued confidence to explore higher. Instead, as the week progressed, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi walked back her deadline for a fiscal stimulus deal. After the initial drop on Monday, equity indices remained range bound until Thursday’s session saw responsive buyers establish an excess low at the conjunction of multiple visual references. The buying continued into Friday’s close, at the high-end of the weekly range. Overall, the market’s failure to range-extend, in either direction, is a sign of minimal conviction. Currently, the market is in the thick of an earnings season, elections are nearing, and stimulus talks are off-and-on. Given that the week ended in balance, a clear change in perception will be followed by successful range extension in either direction. Adding, given Thursday’s responsive buying, there are good odds the market may make another attempt higher, confirmed by range-extension above $3,470 in the S&P 500. If participants were to auction into the $3,406.75 excess low, then the odds of downside follow-through increase substantially. Fundamental: In its global weekly commentary, BlackRock Inc (NYSE: BLK) suggested the most recent resurgence of COVID-19 is not a replay of the spring. bit.ly "We believe daily new infections are likely a fraction of the peaks then, and rising case counts are having a diminishing negative impact on mobility. The economic restart has been quicker than expected, but the part that remains will be hardest. We do not expect a similarly large hit to economic activity as seen in the spring.” Adding, however, the report noted that the economy is facing challenges as the pace of growth begins to slow. Risks to the near-term recovery include fading fiscal stimulus, a prolonged or worsened pandemic, geopolitical tensions, and election complications. Key Events: Monday: Chicago Fed National Activity Index, New Home Sales. Tuesday: Durable Good Orders, House Price Index, CB Consumer Confidence. Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, Goods Trade Balance, EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change, EIA Distillate Stocks Change. Thursday: GDP Growth Rate, Jobless Claims, Core PCE Prices QoQ, GDP Price Index, Pending Home Sales, PCE Prices QoQ. Friday: Core PCE Price Index YoY, PCE Price Index YoY, Core PCE Price Index MoM, PCE Price Index MoM, Personal Income MoM, Personal Spending MoM, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final, Michigan Inflation Expectations Final. Recent News: House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Sunday said the latest plan for aid is under review. reut.rs U.K.’s NHS is preparing to introduce a coronavirus vaccine soon after Christmas. bit.ly Commercial real estate, specifically office and lodging, faces greatest uncertainty. bit.ly Economy recovering slowly through October, but some sectors are still struggling. reut.rs Policy drive toward transformation of health insurance poses risk to profitability. bit.ly General Motors Co (NYSE: GM) investing $2 billion to build EVs in Tennessee. reut.rs Intel Corporation’s (NASDAQ: INTC) sale of memory business a credit positive. bit.ly Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ: GOOGL) breakup may be needed to end antitrust violations. reut.rs China’s recovery lifted industrial commodities as its economy improved materially. bit.ly Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) raised its full-year outlook after a third quarter beat. reut.rs American Express Co (NYSE: AXP) issued a dismal outlook on travel, entertainment. reut.rs Unacceptably high unemployment, low rates of resource utilization to rein in yields. bit.ly Union Pacific Corp (NYSE: UNP) reported a bigger-than-expected drop in profit. reut.rs American Airlines (NASDAQ: AAL), Southwest Airlines (NYSE: LUV) call for aid. reut.rs Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) released “Full Self Driving” software upgrade to drivers. reut.rs AstraZeneca (NASDAQ: AZN), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) resuming trials. reut.rs How blank-check acquirers could reshape emerging companies’ roles in markets. bit.ly Fintech startups broke apart financial services and now the sector is rebundling. bit.ly Texas Instruments Inc’s (NASDAQ: TXN) revenue outperforms, outlook improves. bit.ly China banking law changes will improve bank capital and formalize bank resolution. bit.ly Business activity rose to a 20-month high as pace of new growth and orders eased. reut.rs Courts rule against Uber Technologies (NYSE: UBER), Lyft Inc (NASDAQ: LYFT). reut.rs Canada’s annual inflation rate rose in September, as retailer sales growth softened. reut.rs FDA has approved Gilead Sciences Inc (NASDAQ: GILD) antiviral drug remdesivir. cnb.cx Central bank digital currencies would compound current digital disruption for banks. bit.ly The 2020 election could permanently change the way the United States does voting. bit.ly Pandemic, remote work causes migration to small towns near public lands, resorts. bit.ly Almost 60% of mutual fund assets will be ESG by 2025, according to a PwC forecast. bit.ly Google Inc’s (NASDAQ: GOOGL) dominance is reflected in search startup funding. bit.ly President Vladimir Putin saw no need for global oil producers to change supply. reut.rs More companies are offering earnings guidance, signaling adaptation to uncertainty. reut.rs The third quarter could be the ‘biggest quarter of growth’ in United States history. bit.ly Verizon Communications Inc (NYSE: VZ) beat estimates for its third-quarter profit. reut.rs Purdue Pharma LP agreed to plead guilty to criminal charges over prescription opioid. reut.rs European Union to cut Canada, Georgia and Tunisia from “white list” travel countries. reut.rs Key Metrics: Sentiment: 35.7% Bullish, 31.2% Neutral, 33.0% Bearish as of 10/21/2020. bit.ly Gamma Exposure: (Trending Lower) 2,051,710,147 as of 10/23/2020. bit.ly Dark Pool Index: (Trending Neutral) 40.9% as of 10/23/2020. bit.ly Disclaimer: This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me. In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by Physik
October 17 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, NewsDescription: An analysis for the week ahead. Points of Interest: Prior ATH, Poor Structures, $3,500 and $3,370 High-Volume Areas. Technical: Broad-market equity indices ended the week higher with S&P 500 retracing more than 80% of its September sell-off. During Last Week’s Action: Alongside fiscal stimulus hopes, U.S. index products surged past and built value above a major high-volume concentration as initiative participants (i.e., those buying within or above prior value) showed continued confidence to explore higher. As the week progressed, however, Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) suspended its vaccine trials and expectations regarding further stimulus tempered. The weakness was exacerbated by the prior week’s emotional activity which attracted an enormous amount of speculative derivatives activity and left behind poor structures that offer little-to-no support; as the monthly options expiry neared and dealers unwound their hedges, the market endured a quick correction of the poor structure. Overall, the market remains out of balance and higher. Barring some exogenous event -- such as negative news regarding added stimulus, vaccine progress, and the election -- there is good potential that the market continues exploring higher with an obvious target being, in reference to the S&P 500, the prior all-time-high. Fundamental: In its 2020 World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its expectations on global growth, but cut long-term forecasts on a slower recovery. "The scarring is expected to compound forces that dragged productivity growth lower across many economies in the years leading up to the pandemic — relatively slow investment growth weighing on physical capital accumulation, more modest improvements in human capital, and slower efficiency gains in combining technology with factors of production,” the report said. bit.ly Adding, according to Axios, the hard part of the recovery is just beginning; the IMF is urging governments to keep financial lifelines open; "I worry most about withdrawing support to workers and firms prematurely because it could cause a wave of bankruptcies and massive increase in unemployment," IMF head Kristalina Georgieva said during a media appearance. Key Events: Monday: Fed Chair Powell Speech, Fed Williams Speech, NAHB Housing Market Index, Fed Clarida Speech, Fed Bostic Speech, Fed Harker Speech. Tuesday: Building Permits, Housing Starts, Fed Quarles Speech, Fed Evans Speech. Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, Fed Brainard Speech, Fed Mester Speech, EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change, EIA Distillate Stocks Change, Fed Beige Book. Thursday: Jobless Claims, CB Leading Index, Existing Home Sales, Fed Barkin Speech, Fed Kaplan Speech. Friday: Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash. Recent News: Data points to reduction in economic activity on virus restrictions. bit.ly Despite the virus, structured finance ratings have remained stable. bit.ly Bank earnings soar again alongside increasing trading revenues. bit.ly Delta Air Lines Inc (NYSE: DAL) still burning cash amid recovery. reut.rs EU makes 1 billion-euro bet on Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ: GILD) reut.rs BP Plc (NYSE: BP) leaving emerging market oil, but could return. bit.ly BlackRock Inc (NYSE: BLK) beat estimates on strong inflows. reut.rs JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM) optimistic on virus recovery. reut.rs With economy and credit rolling along, Fed unlikely to alter buying. reut.rs Big technology companies nervousness prompts calls to diversify. reut.rs U.S. retail sales blow expectations in September amid recovery. reut.rs Gulf Coast energy companies restoring oil, gas output post-storm. reut.rs Caterpillar Inc (NYSE: CAT) is betting on self-driving machines. reut.rs New Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone to offer non-material 5G. reut.rs Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) cut prices of Model S in U.S., China. reut.rs Used vehicles again lift U.S. consumer prices, but inflation cools. reut.rs U.S. consumers more optimistic about the labor market, says Fed. reut.rs As the globe gallops into vaccine trials, insurers remain unfazed. reut.rs U.K. minister is seeking cash from the Treasury for a no-deal Brexit. reut.rs Despite economic and health crisis, consumers defy expectations. bit.ly How the market learned to stop worrying and love the blue wave. reut.rs Fed officials calling for tougher regulation to prevent asset bubbles. reut.rs Citadel Securities has sued the SEC over a new trading mechanism. reut.rs Moody’s downgrades U.K. as COVID-19 and Brexit hit debt outlook. reut.rs Newly rated loans from high-yield issues rose for the second month. bit.ly Funding to North American startups held steady in Q3 as exits rose. bit.ly The President does not actually impact the economy as thought. bit.ly U.S. gun sales soar amid pandemic, social unrest, election fears. reut.rs Facebook Inc’s (NASDAQ: FB) Libra tapped an ex-HSBC executive. reut.rs Trump urges big COVID-19 stimulus, but Mitch McConnell disagrees. reut.rs U.S.’s weakest local economies may face worse from the pandemic. reut.rs G20 pledges to do ‘whatever it takes’ to support the global economy. reut.rs Fed’s Clarida says data 'surprisingly strong,’ but deep holes remain. reut.rs IEA: Oil producers may struggle to gauge demand amid second wave. reut.rs Moody’s Corporation (NYSE: MCO) sees virus credit losses rising. bit.ly Key Metrics: Sentiment: 34.8% Bullish, 29.5% Neutral, 35.7% Bearish as of 10/14/2020. bit.ly Gamma Exposure: (Trending Lower) 3,113,195,433 as of 10/16/2020. bit.ly Dark Pool Index: (Trending Neutral) 41.1% as of 10/16/2020. bit.ly Disclaimer: This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me. In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by Physik
September 27 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, NewsDescription: An analysis for the week ahead. Points of Interest: $3,200 High Volume Area; Friday’s Divergence From Value; Balance Area. Technical: Broad-market equity indices ended lower with the S&P 500 correcting as low as $3,200. Recapping last week’s action, Monday's test of the $3,200 high-volume area offered responsive buyers an opportunity to get in at favorable prices. Buying continued through Tuesday, before resisting an area of resting liquidity at $3,300. After disappointments in business activity data and stimulus talks, on heavy-volume and supportive delta, Wednesday's liquidation erased the entire week’s gains. Alongside improvements in home sale data, mega-caps and technology led the market higher, through Friday's close, away from value. Overall, in the bigger picture, the market is churning above $3,200, the site of a large high-volume area which denotes the market’s recent perception of value. When prices trade to a high-volume area, on a swing up auction, then trade should slow allowing responsive longs a good place to enter. Should prices trade and spend time below this area, then perceptions have changed and longs are no longer favorable, at least in the near term. Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts. Fundamental: John Authers, a Bloomberg columnist, suggested gold is falling due to rise in real yields. “When real yields rise then gold, which pays no income, can be expected to fall. This is true even if real yields are rising from deeply negative territory. To explain the intuition behind this, gold is widely regarded as a hedge against central banking irresponsibility. Recent speculation is that the Fed may not print money and cut rates with quite the gay abandon that had been assumed. This may or may not be good news for the U.S. economy, but it raises real yields and for investors in gold and in risk assets, who might benefit from currency debasement, it is definitely bad news.” bloom.bg Simply put, the theory that the Federal Reserve exhausted itself has buoyed real yields, which have an inverse relationship to metals. Key Events: Monday: Fed Mester Speech. Tuesday: Goods Trade Balance, Fed Williams Speech, Fed Harker Speech, CB Consumer Confidence, Fed Williams Speech, Presidential Debate. Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, ADP Employment Change, GDP Growth Rate, Core PCE Prices QoQ Final, Corporate Profits, GDP Price Index, PCE Prices QoQ Final, Pending Home Sales, EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change, EIA Distillate Stocks Change, Fed Kashkari Speech, Fed Kaplan Speech. Thursday: Core PCE Price Index YoY, PCE Price Index YoY, Continuing Jobless Claims, Core PCE Price Index MoM, Initial Jobless Claims, Jobless Claims 4-Week Average, PCE Price Index MoM, Personal Income MoM, Personal Spending MoM, Markit Manufacturing PMI Final, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending MoM, ISM Manufacturing Prices, Fed Williams Speech. Friday: Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings MoM, Average Hourly Earnings YoY, Average Weekly Hours, Non-Farm Payrolls Private, Participation Rate, Fed Harker Speech, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final, Factory Orders MoM, Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations Final, Michigan Inflation Expectations Final. Recent News: Fed publishes scenarios for the second round of 2020 stress tests, a credit positive. bit.ly Sea level rise increases credit risk for U.S. coastal states and local governments. bit.ly Airlines are calling for COVID-19 coronavirus tests before all international flights. reut.rs Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) gets U.S. licenses to supply to Huawei. reut.rs China air force video appears to show a simulated attack on U.S. base on Guam. reut.rs How secular shifts will force the U.S. commercial real estate market to adapt. bit.ly Government aid and stock gains pushed U.S. wealth to pre-pandemic levels. reut.rs As U.S. business activity loses momentum, home price inflation accelerates. reut.rs JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM) to pay nearly $1 billion in spoofing penalty. reut.rs Higher inflation regime in medium term after decade of persistent undershooting. bit.ly A jump in U.S. coal railroad volumes, 2021 forecasts are driving up sentiment. bit.ly Global banks seek to contain damage over $2 trillion of suspicious transfers. reut.rs Amazon Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN) pushes security with indoor drones, car alarms. reut.rs Crude, product prices diverge as market looks to U.S. stimulus, COVID situation. bit.ly IEA analysis of innovation in batteries and electricity storage, based on patent data. bit.ly U.S. upgrades accounted for three-fourths of affected debt in the latest period. bit.ly Hedge funds see opportunity in the New York, San Francisco apartment markets. reut.rs Low interest rates create pension and investment challenges but lower debt costs. bit.ly China is on course for record LNG imports as industries recover and expand. reut.rs General Electric Co (NYSE: GE) plans to stop making coal-fired power plants. reut.rs COVID ‘firepower’: Britain imposed six month curbs against a second virus wave. reut.rs Microsoft Corporation’s (NASDAQ: MSFT) acquisition of ZeniMax credit positive. bit.ly Bombardier Inc’s (OTC: BDRBF) agreement to sell transport unit credit negative. bit.ly Coronavirus resets Latin American economies at lower base, driving asset risks. bit.ly California banning sale of new gasoline-powered passenger vehicles in 2035. reut.rs Data is suggesting that splits fundamentally change how stocks perform. bit.ly The corporate bond issuance boom may steady credit quality, on balance. bit.ly Per earnings and interest rate forecasts, valuations not supported fundamentally. bit.ly Data expected to confirm sentiment eased across most European countries. bit.ly Wary buyers and softer foreign demand, likely raised Japan’s unemployment rate. bit.ly On balance, 2020’s bond issuance boom enhanced overall financial flexibility. bit.ly Demographics and the rising cost of funding retirement may affect valuations. bloom.bg Key Metrics: Sentiment: 24.9% Bullish, 29.1% Neutral, 46.0% Bearish as of 9/23/2020. bit.ly Gamma Exposure: (Trending Lower) 1,152,474,010 as of 9/25/2020. bit.ly Dark Pool Index: (Trending Higher) 42.2% as of 9/25/2020. bit.ly Product Snapshot: S&P 500 (ES): TVC:SPX AMEX:SPY TVC:NDX NASDAQ:QQQ TVC:RUT AMEX:IWM Gold (GC): AMEX:GLD AMEX:GDX TVC:GOLD Crude Oil (CL): TVC:USOIL AMEX:USL AMEX:DBO AMEX:USO Treasury Bonds (ZB): NASDAQ:TLT Disclaimer: This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me. In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by Physik
7