FCPO. WAVE (2) BOTTOMED?Key level = 2193
Critical level = 2095
A very sharp movement today on afternoon trading session toward 2177 area is a good sign that wave (2) already in place. Looking for an impulsive 5 structure movement toward 2235-2260 area to strengthen the idea that wave (3) is unfold. If wave (3) already started, price has no business under 2193 area.
By following Elliott Wave rule #1 “Wave 2 cannot retrace more than 100% of wave 1”, our key level for this analysis is at 2193 and critical level is set at 2095. Key level must hold for this intermediate wave forecast and critical level must hold for a higher degree validity.
Breaking below critical level @ 2095 will cancel this wave analysis.
Brace yourself and keep focus, wave 3 is coming!
Let’s hope for the best!. Hanya Allah yang memberi.
Happy trading.
Fcpo
FCPO. WAITING FOR WAVE (2) BOTTOMED.Key level = 2095
Yesterday price movement breaking below 2147 clearly telling us that wave (2) still not in place yet.
Working on one wave at a time, I’m going to wait and see the development for this downward movement and adjust my plan accordingly to the market tune.
Happy trading
FCPO. WAVE 2 RETRACEMENT.Key level = 2095
Price already reach target retracement area 50-61.8%.
In my own personal opinion, there is still some room left for wave (2) retracement. Waiting for a clear evidence before too see if wave (2) have bottomed.
Key level must hold for this wave idea.
Let's see what the market will offer us.
Happy Trading
Want What The Market Want.
FCPO WAVE 2 CORRECTION PROGRESSKey Level = 1940
From our previous analysis:
“Expecting a 3-structure movement in corrective fashion to complete correction wave (ii)
from my personal opinion, I would like to see the end of wave (ii) at the area of 2093 – 2026”
Wave (ii) unfold into zig-zag pattern and we can see a clear 5-structure movement for wave C toward our target area.
With the idea of diagonal triangle wave (5) to end wave C and (ii), there are still left some room for throw-over below 2100 area. Expecting a sharp movement toward 2217 if everything goes according to plan.
Our key level is set at 1940, which is the starting point of wave 1 and as per Elliott rules “Wave 2 never retrace more than 100% of wave 1”. This wave analysis remains valid as long as our key level hold.
Let’s see what the market will offer us this week.
Happy Trading.
4 MARCH 2019: FCPO Daily Chart AnalysisFCPO Daily Chart
Key Level : 2344, 1940
Price rising from 1940 - 2344 in motive 5 wave structure add support to the idea of wave C of E in weekly chart triangle is completed
(Scenario #1)
Expecting a 3 structure movement in corrective fashion to complete correction wave (ii)
from my personal opinion, i would like to see the end of wave (ii) at the area of 2093 - 2026
(Scenario #2)
Most probably wave (ii) is already in place if price move upward and break above 2344 key level
Lets see what the market will offer us today
Happy trading
FCPO: Hourly EW Count - Dec 12th 2018Recent bullish momentum was short lived after FCPO failed to break the 2055 - 2060 zone. As of now, FCPO seems to trade within a contracting triangle. Our primary projection of an expanded triangle looks bleak, but valid nonetheless. With no fundamental element to entice market to climb higher, the last bullish leg (wave c of (e)) of the expanding triangle is likely to develop under the pretext of contract roll over. It holds true, if and only if, FCPO is traded until the end of this week within the range, bound by the upper and lower lines of the converging triangle.
That being said, it is essentially important to note that a symmetrical contracting triangle is a continuation pattern, so a strong bearish momentum can fully develop right off the bat.
We will take a closer look at the following area as market unfolds.
1965 - 1970
#analysis #12Dec18
FCPO: Hourly EW Count - Nov 30th 2018An expanding triangle is anticipated. Price needs to travel beyond the 2078 price level to ascertain triangle formation. Wave c of (e) is likely to terminate between 2110 - 2125. Any strong violation of EW invalidation level @ 2137 could suggest the next major downtrend may be limited to a certain extent.
Market is then expected to embark on another (probably final) journey further down south.
With the burgeoning stockpile and lack of demand, it is interesting to see how market reacts at the weekly demand zone between 1863 - 1943. #analysis #30Nov18
FCPO - Head and Shoulder BreakdownThe current forward curve in FCPO are trading at the steepest contango throughout the year. The sluggish front months is suggesting market having high inventory.
The price have breakdown significant price level 2137, and this break down also confirm the head and shoulder formation which use 4 months to formed. The pattern projection is targeting 1970.
If price is trading below 2137, next support at 2078, 2033 & chart pattern target 1970.
FCPO - Surprising Survey DataThe strong demand in September month have potential to consume rising production. As suggested from yesterday survey data released by Bloomberg and CIMB. Surveys are expecting an unchange inventory for Sep month from Bloomberg and expecting slightly rised by CIMB. (See Below data) Meanwhile, market is waiting Reuters survey data and the first five days SPPOMA production for Oct. Yesterday price rally were largely reflecting the surprised survey data.
The price found crucial support in 2137 as suggested earlier (see previous post for explanation). The current rebound still premature to justify as trend reversal but seen as price rebound. Refer to the right chart, rebound will seen major resistance at 2240. And shorter term time frame on right charts showing price rebound have reached projection price 2233 yesterday. With soyoil down 1.58% overnight and slightly lower oil price, FCPO has retraced from 2232 and reflect the sentiment.
Trader please monitor price level 2233 to 2240 to indicate further direction. If price stay below this zone, FCPO remain in down trend. Otherwise, stronger rebound above 2240.
Bloomberg Poll Sep vs Aug MPOB:
Prodn 1.86m vs 1.62m (+15%)
Impt 70k vs 80k
Expt 1.65m vs 1.10m (+50%)
LDsp 240k-330k
Stks 2.49m vs 2.49m (unch)
CIMB Poll:
Prodn 1.858m (+15%)
Impt 80k
Expt 1.649m (+50%)
LDsp 280k
Stks 2.498m (+0.4%)
FCPO - Eye on Export DataPalm oil had dropped almost 150 points in just two weeks time as concern on rising inventory. In fact, demand were surprisingly good during the first 15 days of September. The first 20 days export data is due on today. Trader please be cautious if the continue strong demand will trigger potential price rebound if market have overdone. Speculation of 3.3 m inventory by Dorab still uncertain with surprised demand.
On the left chart showing a 2 months chart, the horizontal line in orange plot at 2013 Jul low 2137, If you look at the the entire chart, price did not trade lower than this for almost a decade except 2014 to 2015. As price near to this level, market is expect to be volatile. Meantime,
In technical view, price may initiate rebound with nearing long term price zone 2137. Market is expect to open higher with Soyoil increased 1.36% from yesterday 6 pm closing of Bursa FCPO1!. And price have achieved 7 multiples of golden ratio at 2158 (see right chart)
If rebound, resistance at 2175 to 2187.
If open gap up, price may fill the gap and trend remain favorable to selling.
If open gap up, price do not fill the gap fully, price factoring in potential strength for rebound.
Stay tune for intraday updates in the same post.
FCPO - Price at Major Support Zone 2202Rising production data providing pressure to price. Reader please look at the left chart, retracement level 2202 (61.8%) were good support for FCPO since beginning of August. Price rebound two times from this price level. When the time production increasing rising pace during September, demand was surprisingly good during September as well.
The story on the right chart showing lower time frame projection, as price below 2213, will see 2158. Their room of battle within fundamentals and current price level. Trader please trade with cautious, export and production data are due on tomorrow.
CPO Data Sept 2018
ITS Export
Sept 1-5: 262, 020 vs. 169, 066 (+54.98% )
Sept 1-10: 489,492 vs. 300,326 (+63%)
*Sept 1-15: 752,317 vs 424,487(+77.2%)*
SPPOMA Production
Sept 1-5: +24.15%
Sept 1-10: +3.41%
*Sept 1-15: +12.65%*
FCPO: WAVE 3 IS COMING!Key Level: 2303
We can clearly see movement of price in a motive manner.
Breaching 2 important level, 1) Correction Channel and 2) 2197 level, add support the idea that wave 4 has already topped at 2303.
Breaking below 2197 has cancel the 5 structure uptrend movement for wave C of Y, hence limiting the movement to 3 structure wave = correction wave.
2303 serve and act as our key level/critical level for this analysis, should wave (iv) completed and wave (v) is unfold, price has no business to go above our key level.
Expecting a rebound in price and follow by a strong movement of wave 3 to the downside.
Wave 3 is coming!