Get started

Fcpo

FCPO: Hourly EW Count - Sep 7th 2018fcpoLast friday, market failed to seal off completely the 10-tick gap down that was formed early in the session. In fact, it was finally closed @ 2264; suggesting the confluence area between 2250 and 2260 may already have weakened. With the current situation, the correction phase may already have peaked at 2203. To reflect with the current development, we have downgraded any bullish attempt of wave (5) of © of (e) of (4) into an alternate count. Our new primary projection is based on i) the new resistance area (pinbar) that was recently created around 2277 to 2286. ii) the extreme confluence area (2300 - 2310) that was tested twice (barely though) Primary count #1 Price may respond to the confluence area (2235 - 2242) before resuming to move downwards. Primary count #2 Price will quickly trade lower; breaking the lower channel line as well as violating the EW invalidation line (alternate count). Alternate count We cannot rule out completely a renewed bullish attempt unless the lower channel line is broken or the EW invalidation level @ 2238 is violated. In fact, the alternate count is quick to materialize if FCPO is opened above the confluence area (2275 - 2286) through a gap up (either morning or evening session). P.S MPOB report is expected to be released this afternoon We will see what market offers us today. #analysis #12Sep18
MYX:FCPO1!
by eches
FCPO - Sideway before MPOB Data ReleaseImpulsive swing target 2337 remain in FCPO price projection as long as price above 2262. The latest MPOB Aug survey data suggesting increase in inventory with CIMB released the most bearish survey data. As long holiday ahead, and MPOB data to release at 12 Sep after holiday. The market is expect to be trading sideway. Bloomberg Poll Aug vs Jul MPOB: Prodn 1.65m vs +1.50m (+10%) Expt 1.24m vs 1.21m (+2.5%) Stks 2.41m vs 2.21m (+9%) Reuters Poll: Prodn 1.65m (+9.88%) Impt 50k Expt 1.23m (+2.25%) LDsp 270k Stks 2.41m (+8.96%) CIMB Poll: Prodn 1.681m (+11.8%) Impt 44k Expt 1.236m (+2.5%) LDsp 239k Stks 2.464m (+11.3%)
MYX:FCPO1!
by Johnkiew
1
FCPO: Hourly EW Count - Sep 7th 2018We are currently looking at the development of wave c of (4) of (c). Under further scrutiny (TF 15), the 5-wave structure is hardly seen (it hasn't fully developed). Depending on how it unfolds today, the correction wave may terminate around 2265 – 2272 or around 2250 – 2260 area before it starts to rally again. Apparently, wave (3) of (c) is an extended one as it terminated @ 2.618 extension. With that in mind, we assume wave (5) of (c) has an equal length of wave (1) of (c). Based on the analysis, FCPO may gain bullish momentum again but the rally will be limited by the confluence area (2300 – 2310). At the end of the day, we will see either a truncation or a small overshoot of wave (5) of (c). Upside limit As we can see, the upper channel line that governs the extreme high of wave (4) has been diverging from both confluence area (2300 – 2310) and the invalidation level (2324). If FCPO is able to touch the upper channel line or the invalidation level is violated, it may suggest that the next major downtrend will be limited to a certain extent. We will see what market offers us today. #analysis #07Sep18
MYX:FCPO1!
by eches
FCPO: Hourly EW Count - Sep 5th 2018Yesterday, FCPO has effortlessly bypassed the 2260 & 2265 key levels as well as the confluence area (2265 – 2278) through a 15-tick gap up. Market then edged up steadily throughout the day towards the psychological level @ 2300. Hourly EW Count Structure wise, the strong momentum from 2214 to 2301 is a clear manifestation of wave 3. We should see some retracement of wave 4 after touching the 2300 price level before it struggles to move back up again as a wave 5 (it can be in the form of compression or a complete truncation). Wave (4) is expected to terminate around 2300 – 2310 with extreme high is governed by the upper channel line. Highlights It is worth to note that FCPO has now reached the extreme high area of wave (4). The following are the things that we should be aware of. 1. EW invalidation level (daily/weekly) @ 2324 2. Weekly chart clearly shows that market is moving in a corrective fashion (within deceleration channel) and has now touched the base channel. 3. Confluence area between 2300 – 2308 5. Dynamic EW upper channel line (today’s highest point on hourly chart would be 2320) This is the last bastion for the downtrend. If market is able to bulldoze this extreme area and strongly violate EW invalidation level @ 2324, a recount will be required. We will see what market offers us today. #analysis #05Sep18
MYX:FCPO1!
by eches
FCPO: Hourly EW Count - Sep 3rd 2018Overall, FCPO has almost reached the end of wave © of (e) (4) ( primary count ) or the end of wave © of (ii) of (5) ( alternate count ). Market can now, at any time, slide all the way down to find new low assuming no complex correction or no truncation along the way. That being said, we still reserve our opinion that FCPO may have not peaked just yet. From EW point of view, wave © of (e) of (4) or wave © of (ii) of (5) should develop into a 5-subwave structure. Apparently, it is a 3-subwave structure for the time being. Primary Count (black) Triangle correction - Wave © of (e) of (4) terminates around 2268 - 2275 Alternate Count (green) Running flat correction - Wave © of (ii) of (5) terminates between 2250 - 2265 Upside limit Extreme high of wave (4) is capped at a confluence area between 2300 – 2310 and is always governed by the dynamic upper channel. Any strong movement above this area will require a recount. Even though it is fundamentally and technically a far-fetched idea at the moment, we reiterate this for the umpteenth times to make sure we cover all bases. We will see what market offers us this monday. #analysis #03Sep18
MYX:FCPO1!
by eches
FCPO: Hourly EW Count - Aug 29th 2018FCPO hinted that it is ready to dive in after the lower channel was briefly broken on Monday evening. We hope, though, to see it is closed below the harmonic key level @ 2192 to reaffirm its bearish posture. To reflect the current development, alternate count (green) is included. Primary count (black) Our view remains the same; a new high around 2265 - 2278 is still possible in order to complete wave (e) of (4). Alternate count (green) Wave (ii) of (5) is likely to further develop into a flat correction but is restricted to a regular flat as the upper limit of the flat correction will be capped by 2265 (EW invalidation). Bear in mind, throughout the previous session, FCPO did not manage to close above the harmonic key level @ 2235. It may signifies that the bull run will be short lived and it may continue its journey to the next demand zone (2164 - 2180). We will see what market offers us today. #analysis #29Aug18
MYX:FCPO1!
by eches
FCPO: Hourly EW Count - Aug 27th 2018Market tried to trade lower for 2 consecutive days but was repelled by the demand / confluence zone (2214 - 2227). In both sessions market was closed near the bottom of the zone, suggesting the area may already be weakened and is not able to catapult market to trade higher. Scenario #1 Assuming this morning market opens within the vicinity of the previous close, it may slide lower towards the new confluence area between 2201 and 2208 before rallying upwards. In this scenario, a new high at 2265 - 2278 is still within reach in order to complete the E leg of wave (4). Scenario #2 Market may open lower and is able to break the lower channel as well as violates the harmonic bearish level (2192). If FCPO is able to trade lower and maintain below 2192, it is tilted to the bearish dominance. It will effortlessly trade lower to the next demand zone (2164 - 2180) before finding some real resistance over there. Moving forward, we may see some retracement to the 2214 - 2227 before it continues to move further down south. We will see what market offers us today.
MYX:FCPO1!
by eches
FCPO Price moving in channelPrice hit 2260 at the top of the trend line and reverse back into the range today. Price closed respecting the channel and the significant level at 2238 (again), and is Holiday tomorrow. Moving forward to Thursday, we may see bearish momentum pushing it towards bottom trend line and start moving in ranges, before any news / data releases that will build up any momentum. Also to observe the movement of CBOT - movement may affect the FCPO price direction.
MYX:FCPO1!Short
by kkgoh87
FCPO: Hourly EW Count - Aug 20th 2018Market gives clear indications that the corrective wave (4) is currently developing when it completely violated the invalidation level (2225) ( 16thAug18 analysis ) and managed to close the gap area (2230 – 2243) ( 17thAug18 analysis ). The 3-subwave structures are apparently seen in the first 4 waves (A, B, C & D). The final leg should have the same structure as well in order to complete the correction phase. If new high is formed, it will be limited by the supply zones (2252 - 2262 & 2265 -2275) and the extreme high of wave (4) will be governed by the established upper channel (solid blue line). 2 possible scenarios can be deduced as far as Elliott Wave is concerned. In the first scenario, market may attempt to reach new high at the supply zone (2252 - 2262) before trading lower to the demand zone (2214 - 2227). Market will then may make the final push upwards to complete wave (4). In the second scenario, we anticipate market to trade lower before moving upwards. If market is able to break lower channel (solid blue line) and close the gap area (2164 - 2180) in a decisive manner, it signifies wave (4) had already terminated at 2265 price level and wave (5) is currently unfolding. A recount will be required in this case to reflect the change of direction. Likewise, a recount is needed if market is showing a resolved movement upwards, breaking the upper channel. We will see what market offers us today.
MYX:FCPO1!
by eches
FCPO: Hourly EW Count - Aug 17th 2018There are 2 possible scenarios that we can come up with. Scenario #1 : Wave (ii) of (5) had already completed and market should now move further down south in a decisive manner. We would like to see the lower correction channel (solid blue lines) to be broken and the gap area (2164 - 2180) to be closed. By fulfilling these 2 conditions, we can safely rule out that bullish momentum has finally run out of steam. Scenario #2 : As of now, the correction structure of wave (ii) of (5) is hardly recognized. We prefer to assume that wave (ii) of (5) is currently unfolding and is expected to develop into a simple zigzag. In this preferred scenario, market should trade lower to the golden retracement area (2203 – 2205) before making the final push to reach new high at the fresh confluence zone (2233 - 2238). Bear in mind, the gap area between 2221 - 2243 cannot be breached. If market pulls off to close the gap area, it is very likely that wave (4) is still progressing.
MYX:FCPO1!
by eches
FCPO: Hourly EW Count - Aug 16th 2018Wave (i) of (5) projection is still in a good shape provided market is able trade lower; confined within the downtrend channel (dashed lines). Ideally, termination wave 3 of (i) of (5) below 2160 price level is preferred to decisively brush off any bullish attempt. Market, however, could open higher early in the morning and may continue to edge up to the 2225 – 2230 area before trading lower eventually. Please note, a continuous violation of invalidation level (2225) may indicate a renewed bullish momentum. Failing to break lower correction channel (solid blue lines) or failing to close below 2180 price level by end of this week may indicate the correction of wave (4) is still on the cards. If that is the case, market could transpire into 3-drive pattern or ascending triangle in the coming weeks. We will see what market offers us today.
MYX:FCPO1!
by eches
FCPO: Hourly EW Count - Aug 15th 2018During previous session, FCPO slid lower towards the demand zone (2190 - 2200) before bouncing upwards. Moving forward, the upwards momentum may be short lived and price may go downwards right away early in the morning session. A sharp fall towards the gap area is possible assuming the demand zone (2190 - 2200) that was tested yesterday has been partially or completely consumed. A strong and solid fall is a clear manifestation of unfolding wave 3 of (i) of (5). We, however, expect FCPO to continue to edge up until it reaches the supply zone (2225 - 2230) before it starts to move downwards. If market succeeds to stay above 2225 - 2230 area by end of the day, we may see a new high forming tomorrow (thanks to the new spot month contract). The new top will be limited by confluence area (2265 - 2275) and its extreme high will be governed by the upper channels (dotted and solid lines). We will see what market offers us today.
MYX:FCPO1!
by eches
FCPO: Hourly EW Count - Aug 14th 2018In my humble opinion, it is an early sign that the downtrend has just begun after market managed to break the 2220 price level during previous session. In order to ascertain its bearish dominance, market needs to break the lower channel (solid) as well as closing the gap area (2164 - 2180). If price is able to stay below 2160, it raises the probability that the market will slide further down at faster rate. In order to maintain this bearish posture, the upside should be limited to 2225 - 2230 area (a perfect sell spot). The correction of wave (4) is not over yet if it manages to stay above 2190 - 2200 area. November18 contract and October18 contract differ by almost 25++ ticks. If market is able to stay around 2230 - 2240 in the next couple of days, price will effectively hover around 2250 - 2260 on a continuous chart (FCPO-CC) on Thursday session. If this scenario prevails, a new high could possibly be formed, thus a possible triangle of wave C of (4).
MYX:FCPO1!
by eches
FCPO: Hourly EW Count - Aug 13th 2018Here's another iteration of EW count on hourly chart. If compared with the previous analysis , both share same similarity; they are converging into a triangle (a compression to be precise). If either one holds true, it is a clear indication that wave (4) is definitely going to end. Assuming price resumes from previous close, market is expected to move upwards but limited; capped by the new confluence area (2268 - 2277) and is bound by the upper channel. Date range is used to better gauge the extreme high market could go before it starts descending. If the compression is actually taking place and it is to be completed within 2 days (12 bars), the maximum price would be 2290. Any solid price movement crossing 2290 - 2300 area will require a recount.
MYX:FCPO1!
by eches
FCPO: Hourly EW Count - Aug 9th 2018FCPO has reached the extreme upper channel (dotted) at 2265 price level during previous session and is expected to make its way downwards. That being said, we cannot rule out that the correction phase is not over yet. On hourly chart, we can see a possible A-B-C-D-E triangle, governed by the red lines, is currently forming. If price manages to cross below the 2210 - 2220 area (breaking the previous low structure and breaking the lower red line) and slip past the 2175 - 2190, we can assume that bearish momentum starts to gain the upper hand. Today, FCPO may move in a range-bound as everyone is eagerly waiting for MPOB report to be released tomorrow afternoon. We will see whether the report can give the heavy lifting for the downtrend.
MYX:FCPO1!
by eches