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FCPO1!

Head-and-Shoulders Pattern Signals Decline in MAR25-JUN25 SpreadMYX:FCPO1! The opening price of the MAR25-JUN25 spread contract today was 265 points. During the midday session, the market experienced a sharp decline to 206 points but later recovered, closing at 227 points. From the daily chart of the MAR25-JUN25 spread contract, a clear head-and-shoulders top pattern can be observed, with today’s closing price falling below the neckline, signaling a bearish trend. Referring to the March FCPO contract, the closing price today was 4,342 points, approximately 200 points above the strong support zone I identified at 4,120–4,150 points. The overall trend remains bearish. Based on this analysis, I expect the MAR25-JUN25 spread contract to continue its downward movement tomorrow. If tomorrow’s closing price is around 200 points and the March contract has not yet tested the strong support zone, I will hold onto the position. However, if the March contract reaches the strong support zone, it will be necessary to exit the position to mitigate the risk of a rebound in the spread contract. Market activity during the night session was relatively subdued. I look forward to seeing whether tomorrow’s price action aligns with this analysis.
MYX:FCPOH2025Short
by goldong01
Palm Oil Market Watch: Technical Breakdown & Fundamental ShakeupIn the ever-changing landscape of the global vegetable oil market, palm oil takes center stage once again. From India’s sharp increase in imports to Indonesia’s biodiesel policy adjustments and Malaysia’s declining export figures, the palm oil market is witnessing a dynamic interplay of forces. On the technical front, critical price levels and trend shifts are adding layers of uncertainty and opportunity for market participants. This article delves into the latest developments and future outlook of the palm oil market through both fundamental and technical perspectives. 1. News and Fundamental Analysis Anilkumar Bagani, head of research at the Mumbai-based vegetable oil brokerage Sunvin Group, stated that palm oil futures rebounded from earlier weakness because India, the world's largest edible oil importer, increased its palm oil purchases. India bought approximately 100,000 metric tons of palm oil during the first two working days of 2025. Indonesia’s Deputy Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources, Yuliot Tanjung, announced on Friday that the country would provide a 1.5-month transition period for businesses to meet the new B40 biodiesel policy requirements. Initially, Indonesia planned to mandate a 40% palm oil content in biodiesel starting January 1, but industry stakeholders are still awaiting technical regulations for implementation. Independent inspection company AmSpec Agri reported on Tuesday that Malaysia's palm oil product exports for November totaled 1,381,837 tons, a 2.5% decrease from November's 1,417,436 tons. Meanwhile, data from Intertek Testing Services (ITS) showed Malaysia’s palm oil product exports for December fell to 1,359,504 tons, down 7.8% from November's 1,473,761 tons. Palm oil prices followed the trends of other competing edible oils as they vie for market share in the global vegetable oil market. In China, the most active soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange dropped by 2.56%, while the most active palm oil contract declined by 1.36%. The CBOT March soybean oil futures contract remained steady. 2. Technical Analysis Malaysian BMD crude palm oil (CPO) futures rose on Friday but ended the week with a decline of over 5%, reversing gains from the previous week. The benchmark March CPO contract on BMD increased by RM41, or 0.95%, to RM4,374 per ton. The weekly chart for the continuous contract FCPO1! shows that prices failed to hold the support level around RM4,500, instead falling to RM4,374. Despite losing the RM4,500 level, the overall upward trend structure remains intact on the weekly chart. The next support level is anticipated around RM4,120. If this level is also breached, it will be necessary to reassess whether the major trend has shifted from bullish to bearish. On the daily chart for FCPO1!, the overall trend leans bearish. A clear double-top formation is evident, with a neckline break, resistance retest, and distinct downward waves. While support is visible around RM4,250, it is unlikely to be strong. Both the weekly and daily charts for the March contract indicate that RM4,250 does not represent a solid support level. 3. Summary By referencing the March and continuous contracts, the next significant support level is likely between RM4,120 and RM4,150. Until this support range is breached, the overall trend can be described as long-term bullish with short-term bearish corrections.
MYX:FCPO1!Short
by goldong01
Palm Oil Futures (FCPO) Technical Analysis: A Short-Term BearishThe analysis did not align with initial expectations. It was anticipated that the weekly chart of the FCPO1! continuous contract would stabilize around the 4500 support level, but this week it dropped to 4374. From the weekly chart perspective, while the 4500 level has been breached, the overall upward trend structure remains intact. The next support level will likely be around 4120. If this level is also breached, it will be necessary to reassess whether the major trend has shifted from bullish to bearish. Looking at the FCPO1! daily chart, the overall trend leans bearish. A clear double top can be observed, along with a neckline breakout, a retest of the resistance line, and a distinct downward wave. Although there may be some support around the 4250 level, it is unlikely to be strong support, as both the weekly and daily charts of the March contract do not indicate any significant support at this level. By referencing both the March contract and the continuous contract, the next strong support level should be around 4120–4150. As long as this support level holds, I consider the trend to be long-term bullish but short-term bearish. Based on the daily chart trend of the March contract, it is likely that prices will decline in the short term to test the 4120–4150 support level. Therefore, I believe this is a good opportunity to enter a short position on the spread. Currently, the support level for MAR25-JUN25 is around 240 points, with the next support level at 190–200 points if 240 is breached. If an entry can be made above 250 points on Monday, each contract is expected to yield a 50-point profit, amounting to RM2,500 in total.
MYX:FCPOH2025Short
by goldong01
1
FCPO Week 37 2024: BULLISH.The 4-hour chart indicates a strong upward price movement. An inverted head and shoulders pattern has emerged, with the price breaking above the neckline, marking the first wave of the move. This was followed by a brief consolidation phase, representing the second wave. Now, the price appears ready to resume its upward momentum, potentially forming the third wave. Watch for a breakout as this wave could push prices higher. A buy position may be considered, with a target price of 4018 for potential profit.
MYX:FCPO1!Long
by edramlan
4
FCPO Week 30 2024: Slight bullish potential.Last week, it was anticipated that the price would retrace higher before moving lower. However, this did not materialize. The 3900 to 4000 range remains a critical area, with the price continuing to move within this band. Currently, forecasting the outlook is challenging, but based on recent price reactions, the market appears to favor the bulls. Next week, we will be looking for opportunities to buy, anticipating that the price will move higher. Like, comment or follow if you like to idea.
MYX:FCPO1!Long
by edramlan
1
FCPO Week 28 2024: Support retest and then higher.Last week, the price broke through the 4,000 resistance area and closed above it. However, it hasn't moved significantly higher and is currently consolidating. It's expected that the price might retest the 4,000 area before moving higher towards the 4,200 level. If the price drops significantly, the outlook could change, potentially reversing the trend. Given the short trading week, adopting a wait-and-see strategy to observe the next price action might be wise.
MYX:FCPO1!Long
by edramlan
1
FCPO Week 27 2024: still in range. Neutral.There was a slight upward movement last week, likely due to the price reacting to the support area. However, strong resistance remains at the 4,000 level. The recent bounce from support might reach this resistance and result in continued consolidation. Range traders can benefit from this environment while it persists. Trend traders, on the other hand, may prefer to wait for a significant breakthrough above the resistance or below the support levels to confirm a new trend.
MYX:FCPO1!
by edramlan
2
FCPO Week 25 2024: Still in consolidation.The price remains within its range, showing minimal movement last week. Despite expectations, it has not made any significant progress upward. The outlook suggests that the price could move higher, but it needs to close and sustain above the 4,000 level to see a substantial increase. Based on the current consolidation, we observe that the price may have formed a rounded bottom, potentially creating a cup and handle pattern with higher highs (HH) and lower highs (LH). These are positive indicators for a bullish move, but momentum is still lacking. If it is indeed going higher then the 4135 is the immediate target. If the price breaks below the LH area, it could move lower. The best approach for the upcoming week is to adopt a wait-and-see strategy, looking for confirmation of the next price movement.
MYX:FCPO1!
by edramlan