FCPO 23 August 2021 : False Breakout1. False breakout when price opens below previous day support and immediately close back inside the range without rejection.
2. Entry when price close inside the zone.
3. Or entry during pullback rejection.
4. Usually fake breakouts produce large movements. the daily range for FCPO almost 100~130 ticks.
Fcpo1
FCPO Trading SchematicThere is 3 type of price reaction towards SnR
i) Rejection
ii) Breakout
iii) False breakout
How to trade (i) rejection @ M15?
1. Price close with reversal CS - long wick
2. M5 has engulfed at least 60%
3. Set Limit order near the neck of close M15 CS.
How to trade (ii) breakout @ M15?
1. Price close outside the SnR
2. 2nd CS also close outside SnR
3. Entry after rejection @ M5
How to trade (iii) false breakout @ M15?
1. Price close outside SnR
2. 2nd CS close inside SnR
3. Immediate entry after 2nd CS close.
4. Usually the aftermath range is the biggest after price consolidation.
Another addition entry is Rejection-continuation :
1. Always happen in strong trend as a pullback
2. CS rejection @ M15
3. CS engulf @ M5
4. Immediate entry after rejection CS close
FCPO Trading Strategy for False Breakout and Valid BreakoutPrice downtrend continuation when new day price open inside the previous trading range.
Valid breakout = trend continuation
Therefore, we use 1min TF to look for entry.
1. Break market structure.
2. EMA 14,50,200 trend.
3. Stochastic
4. Reverse-retest
5. Stoploss
6. TP
False breakout = reversal/rejection
Use 15min to find entry
1. Entry after 2nd CS close back inside the zone
2. Stoploss 2xATR @1min chart.
3. TP opposite Support / Resistance.
FCPO (Nov 21 Contract)My view for Crude Palm oil as follows.
1) Price will make a decline towards $4336 to $4330 area, making a new support area.
2) Price shall then make a rally and heads to $4500 area (plus minus ish)
3) before making a big drop to $4000 area
In conclusion, will look to make a quick 45ticks by shorting. After the 1st session break, i will look for a long opportunity. If there is no buying pressure, then my we will look for other opportunity.
Good luck kawan!
FCPO Identify Fake Breakout and How to Trade it?When the price is near the SnR it is where get it will get tricky...either the price want to continue the trend or reverse?
The false breakout strategy :
1. Timeframe 15min
2. Identify strong valid SnR
3. Draw the zone by pick the wick and the neck.
4. If price breakout and 2nd CS close inside the zone, it is a false breakout and entry position after 2nd CS close.
5. TP for the false breakout can be the opposite SnR.
Valid breakout strategy: Trend continuation
1. Use 15min and 1min chart for confirmation.
Recap FCPO 13 August 20211. The major trend market structure is an uptrend.
2. Early morning session continues from previous day give us short term trade for downtrend move.
3. Once the downtrend market structure is broken, prepare to find the long entry opportunity
4. There is 2 type of entry. Risky and safe entry.
5. Risky entry when EMA14 + EMA50 still below EMA200 while price successfully break EMA200
6. Safe entry when all EMA align for uptrend movement.
Time Cycle and Gann Box for FCPOTime cycle and Gann box to predict the market movement hence easy to make the decision.
We use 15min TF as our major time frame.
Time cycle draws by choosing double top/bottom.
Gann Box draw align with the time cycle for each level.
For current market trend, its follow the current cycle time. It might be changing in the future.
FCPO Crude Palm OilBullish is trying very hard to push against its 5 & 15 min resistance. Bullish volume in the 1HR chart seems to be working too hard with a little too less, or I can say a formation of Doji. However, the price just closed above the resistance, we will be looking closely at the next candle reaction, whether the bullish is getting weaker or stronger. Here some tip, if the bearish candle goes down easily closing below its support area + with little effort in the volume, then you know that bearish is stronger than the bullish.
Again, nothing is clear now, Price is tight right now between various numbers of EMA. Waiting for the "kettle" to reach its final temperature before bursting out to the upside or downside.
If it goes up, we can see it will go up to 4300 area or even better, closing the gap.
If it goes down, I believe that it will still not going too far, probably will retest again at 4080 area, but hey, money is money.
Good Luck.
FCPO Crude Palm Oil FuturesMy view on FCPO;
1) Price is to rally higher to the next Resistance level
2) Price is expecting to do a bullish reversal at the 0.5 fibo level which also respecting the previous resistance turn support level
Will enter into a position when price reaching 0.5 fibo and make a higher high. Targetting 170 to 175 ticks.
July21: FCPO (Daily) - Wide Range, Sideways Up...🐮📈Maintain sideways view, price continued rallying on weak volume, reached prev R@ 406x-418x area.
Expect some retracement upon violating steep UTL, price may find support near S zone.
Major S&R zone
R1: 406x-418x
Major R2: ~4.4k
S1: 366x-386x
Major S2: 3.2-3.4k
Looking for swing long on retrace. Maintaining longer holding period positions lately due to lack of monitoring time.
Lesser posts here, due to TV deleting some of my posts (😤). I still post more in my own public channel. :)
Happy Hunting! 🚀
-JK-