FDAX1!
DAX recoverd but approaching a strong Resistance similar to 2019Very interesting fractal repetition for DAX so far. As the price is approaching the 1W MA100 (green) a typical Support in Bull Markets and Resistance in Bear Markets, we have spotted striking similarities with the 2018/2019 correction. There is a flat Resistance just above the 1W MA100, which in April 2019, as the index recovered from that multi month correction, pushed it back to the 1D MA200 (orange).
Swing traders can wait for the next big entry there, if the pattern continues to repeat that Cycle. The RSI so far tends to agree and shows that weve just started a new multi month recovery phase.
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DAX Crucial 1D MA200 test! Sell with low risk but BUY if broken!The German stock index (DAX) has been trading within a Channel Up (Higher Highs/ Higher Lows) since the September 29 bottom. Following the contact with the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) on Wednesday's Fed Rate Announcement, the price has been rebounding strongly, aiming at the 1D MA200 (red trend-line).
Having already broken above the January 05 Lower Highs trend-line last week, that would be the most crucial test for the long-term trend as the 1D MA200 has been unbroken since February 02, practically throughout the whole Bear Cycle of 2022. If broken, expect a Higher High on the Channel Up that would test the 13980 August 16 High (Resistance 1) where a 1W closing above it can target further upwards the 14710 June 06 High (Resistance 2).
Until the 1D MA200 break-out happens though, DAX's Channel Up draws heavy comparisons with the July 14 - August 16 Channel Up, which eventually topped and started a new heavy sell sequence that made the current market Low. As you see the top was formed after a 4H MA100/200 Bearish Cross (4H MA100 green trend-line crossing below the 4H MA200 orange trend-line), which is the pattern that DAX just formed today. On top of that, the 4H RSI sequences of the two Channel Up patterns are very similar following an (a)-(b)-(c)-(d) pattern. That means that until the price breaks and closes above the 1D MA200, being that close to it, we can take a low risk/ high reward sell and target the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line).
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DAX Short-term bullish but heavy Resistance Zone ahead of ECB.The German stock index (DAX) has been trading within a Rising Wedge (dashed lines) since the October 02 bottom that is about to break. The 4H Golden Cross (4H MA50 (blue trend-line) crossing above the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line)) is a short-term bullish signal as the three times we had this pattern formed in 2022, the price rose more ranging from the 1.236 Fibonacci extension to the 1.5.
Moreover, the 1D RSI broke above its Lower Highs trend-line, adding more buying pressure. The 1.236 Fib is located exactly on the January 05 Lower Highs trend-line, which is basically the Resistance dictating the 2022 Bear Market, while the 1.5 is just below the 1D MA200 (green trend-line). That trend-line has been unbroken since February 02, so we are willing to buy (on the long-term) again only if the price breaks above it and target the previous Lower Highs. Until then, selling the Fib extensions on tight SLs is our approach, targeting the 4H MA200.
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DAX Hit the 4H MA200 for the first time in +1 month.DAX (FDAX1!) hit today the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since September 14. This is still technically a short-term bullish reaction (Channel Up) within two longer term bearish structures (Bearish Megaphone with the dashed lines and Falling Wedge o a broader frame). With the 4H RSI approaching its Resistance Zone, it is not unlikely to see a rejection by tomorrow back to the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line).
We have accurately laid out this information on our previous DAX analysis 10 days ago:
Basically as it happened from July 19 to August 12, we may see continuous pull-backs on that Zone as the price breaks the Bearish Megaphone to test the top of the Falling Wedge. On the long-term only a closing above the 1D MA200 (red trend-line), which is untested since February 02, can be enough to change the trend from bearish to bullish.
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