DAX Crucial 1D MA200 test! Sell with low risk but BUY if broken!The German stock index (DAX) has been trading within a Channel Up (Higher Highs/ Higher Lows) since the September 29 bottom. Following the contact with the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) on Wednesday's Fed Rate Announcement, the price has been rebounding strongly, aiming at the 1D MA200 (red trend-line).
Having already broken above the January 05 Lower Highs trend-line last week, that would be the most crucial test for the long-term trend as the 1D MA200 has been unbroken since February 02, practically throughout the whole Bear Cycle of 2022. If broken, expect a Higher High on the Channel Up that would test the 13980 August 16 High (Resistance 1) where a 1W closing above it can target further upwards the 14710 June 06 High (Resistance 2).
Until the 1D MA200 break-out happens though, DAX's Channel Up draws heavy comparisons with the July 14 - August 16 Channel Up, which eventually topped and started a new heavy sell sequence that made the current market Low. As you see the top was formed after a 4H MA100/200 Bearish Cross (4H MA100 green trend-line crossing below the 4H MA200 orange trend-line), which is the pattern that DAX just formed today. On top of that, the 4H RSI sequences of the two Channel Up patterns are very similar following an (a)-(b)-(c)-(d) pattern. That means that until the price breaks and closes above the 1D MA200, being that close to it, we can take a low risk/ high reward sell and target the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line).
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FDAX1!
DAX Short-term bullish but heavy Resistance Zone ahead of ECB.The German stock index (DAX) has been trading within a Rising Wedge (dashed lines) since the October 02 bottom that is about to break. The 4H Golden Cross (4H MA50 (blue trend-line) crossing above the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line)) is a short-term bullish signal as the three times we had this pattern formed in 2022, the price rose more ranging from the 1.236 Fibonacci extension to the 1.5.
Moreover, the 1D RSI broke above its Lower Highs trend-line, adding more buying pressure. The 1.236 Fib is located exactly on the January 05 Lower Highs trend-line, which is basically the Resistance dictating the 2022 Bear Market, while the 1.5 is just below the 1D MA200 (green trend-line). That trend-line has been unbroken since February 02, so we are willing to buy (on the long-term) again only if the price breaks above it and target the previous Lower Highs. Until then, selling the Fib extensions on tight SLs is our approach, targeting the 4H MA200.
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DAX Hit the 4H MA200 for the first time in +1 month.DAX (FDAX1!) hit today the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since September 14. This is still technically a short-term bullish reaction (Channel Up) within two longer term bearish structures (Bearish Megaphone with the dashed lines and Falling Wedge o a broader frame). With the 4H RSI approaching its Resistance Zone, it is not unlikely to see a rejection by tomorrow back to the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line).
We have accurately laid out this information on our previous DAX analysis 10 days ago:
Basically as it happened from July 19 to August 12, we may see continuous pull-backs on that Zone as the price breaks the Bearish Megaphone to test the top of the Falling Wedge. On the long-term only a closing above the 1D MA200 (red trend-line), which is untested since February 02, can be enough to change the trend from bearish to bullish.
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DAX: Startle ReflexesWe don’t know what has startled DAX so much that it has jumped upwards and has come quite close to the mark at 12425 points again – maybe, someone tested its startle reflexes… However, the index is already back on track and should continue to move downwards into the pink zone between 11421 and 11060 points to finish wave III in pink, which it could also do in the slightly lower and larger blue zone between 11352 and 10828. Afterwards, DAX should perform a countermovement into the upper pink zone between 12129 and 13066 points, before dropping into the big green zone to complete the overarching downwards movement. Indeed, wave 2 in green could also end in the blue zone between 9980 and 9456 points, which provides a little bit more room southwards.
FDAX UpdateMFI and RSI dropping, looks like it'll hit my orange support line either tomorrow or Monday
Europe is going into a recession, even if they have enough natural gas to get through the winter, they have issues stocking up next year. No more Russian gas flowing at all, they blew up the pipelines.
FDAX Update3 hr indicators are neutral, seemed bullish this morning but there's a chance that it back tests support and drops down again. Remember, old support is new resistance. The Euros know they are headed into a recession.
US market seems bullish on this technical bounce, but gap direction tomorrow is a crap shoot.
No position, just watching the market and looking for new stocks to play with. My favorite bull plays are dead.
DAX Testing the March Support. Potential Triple Bottom.The DAX futures index (FDAX1!) followed exactly what we pointed out on our last analysis more than a month ago, as it got rejected on the All Time High Lower Highs trend-line (1) and is now approaching the Support Zone that started after the March 07 Low:
As you see, that Support Zone has so far made a Double Bottom (March 07 and July 05) and along with the Lower Highs trend-line (1) have formed a massive Descending Triangle that is on the verge of breaking out. With the 1D RSI on Higher Lows since March 07, a bullish break-out is quite likely and it should target the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) around the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. Note that the 1D MA200 has been untouched since February 02. However no further buying can be engaged with as the price will still be limited to the Lower Highs trend-line (2). In our opinion, only a break above the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) can restore the bullish sentiment on DAX on the long-term.
If on the contrary the 12360 Support breaks, we expect aggressive selling that can target the -0.236 Fibonacci extension around 11435.
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DAX 4HOUR : IT CAN CRASH TO 11300i love dax (dow gold ) go up to 14000 but i try analyse witout my self sense
technical say dax can go to these level ..frist 12200 area if can break it can carsh to 11300 (with stupid Biden and Powell and their bad actions this can happend )
so be careful ,,keep monitor AC indicator on 4hour
note 1 : break red trend line is buy signal and big +up trend can start to EMA200 daily neqar 13800
note 2 : above green arrow aftre buy PINBAR comes on higher time ,60-240-1440min chart we can buy dax and hold it 30-40 day to high
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