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FDX

THE WEEK AHEAD: IT'S EYEBALLS ON THE FEDUgh. Doing my weekly market review/screening and there is literally nothing high IVR/high IV to play ... . Nada ... . Zilch ... . One option is to sell puts in one of these "just high IV" underlyings: VRX: April 21st 11 goes for .56 AKS: April 21st 7 goes for .31 AMD: April 21st 13 goes for .66 WLL: April 21st 8 goes for .28 CLF April 21st 8 goes for .34 X: April 21st 32 goes for 1.25 These are all at or around the 30 delta ... . Those plays, however, are not my "favorite girls to dance with at the ball." For earnings, what little "quality" stuff is left to this season is still a few days out: FDX (IVR 92/IV 30) (3/21 AMC) GME (IVR 73/IV 46) (3/23 AMC) MU (IVR 76/IV 47) (3/23) VIX: For a "Term Structure" play,* the earliest expiry where the 50 delta strike is at 16 or greater and pays ~2.50/contract is June, and that's 101 DTE ... . Of course, we have that little Fed shindig going on next week. Implied volatility and the VIX can turn on a dime, but I've been waiting for VIX to turn on a dime for weeks ... .
TVC:VIX
by NaughtyPines
2
THE WEEK AHEAD -- FOMC, FOMC, FOMC; LONG VIX; OIL; EARNINGSHere's what I'm looking at for next week: VIX/VIX PRODUCTS . VIX finished last week at 16.50. I will look at VIX/VIX product setups early next week depending how the "horse does at the gate" (Monday). If we see a tight range in the S&P like we did pre-Draghi in prepation for FOMC, VIX could drift go a little lower Monday through Wednesday, in which case I will want to use VIX, VIX, or UVXY to go "long volatility." Index ETF's . There is little sense in selling April expiry premium here in broader index instruments with VIX the way it is. Brazil, oil/gas, and the gold space continue to have the volatility, but I'm already in all of the underlyings that have any juice in their options that are at 70+ implied volatility rank (UNG (covered call), EWZ (iron fly), GDXJ (short strangle), RIG (short strangle), GLD (credit spread), and XOP (short strangle) in those sectors. If you look at SPY implied volatility month-to-month, it doesn't approach something "regular" until the June expiry (19.9%), so I may look to set up some small premium selling play in the June expiry on the possibility that low volatility sticks around for a period of time and to have something in the queue for that event. Trying to sell 45 DTE premium in the index ETF's in a period like we had last year between mid-March and late August was a total slog ... . Oil . The 2016 high was set on 1/4 at 35.36 in USOIL. it tested the underside of that level Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday of last week and broke through it by a whopping .20 cents on Friday, so who knows whether that'll hold. If oil caves, the S&P will follow hard (the S&P currently has a .93 correlation with USOIL). However, oil has a tendency to enter fairly lengthy consolidative periods before moving directionally forward, so be prepared for oil to taunt you with both suggestions that it's going to break significantly higher and indications that it's going to totally implode ... . If you're into trading spot forex, watch oil's effect on the petro currency USDCAD. The Loonie may get a double whammy from a cave in oil plus Fed tightening/dovish-hawkishness. The Loonie's entire strength profile from 2/11 is largely on the back of oil. EURUSD. This is the strong/weak pair to watch post-Draghi and running up into FOMC. For me, this is not a pair I would mess around with "playing in the middle" between 1.08 and 1.10. As I did last year, I would wait for it to hit 1.14 and then go short if it's inclined to react to the upside on whatever FOMC says; otherwise, stay out. The fundamentals on this pair should be telling everyone to only short on strength (ECB easing; Fed tightening), as attempting to play the 200 pips between 1.08 and 1.10 has been and is likely to continue to be somewhat discouraging as it looks to find its footing in the larger range between 1.14 and near parity. EARNINGS. Although the earnings season has been described as "over" for this quarter, there are a few issues that are still due to report that might be worth playing, assuming that the volatility is there: ORCL (Tuesday, after close), FDX (Wednesday after close), and ADBE (Thursday, after market close). As it stands right now, none of those meet my implied volatility rank rules (70th percentile plus), with all three of those having percentiles hovering around 50, but naturally that might change running up into the actual announcement.
FX:USOIL
by NaughtyPines
EARNINGS PLAYS THIS COMING WEEK -- FDX, ORCLOnly two earnings plays stick out to me this coming week -- FDX and ORCL, both of which announce earnings on 12/16 (Wednesday) after market close, so look to put on setups before NY close on Wednesday. Currently, FDX's 52 week IVR is at 54 (IV 34), which isn't stellar, but it's at 92 for the past six months. Moreover, there is pretty good credit to be had whether you go short strangle or iron condor, so I imagine I'll play that one way or another if the IV sticks in there. ORCL (IVR 75/IV 35) isn't looking all that hot, frankly, because I can't get 1.00 in credit with either a short strangle or iron condor (a Dec 24 34.5/39.5 short strangle will only get you a .61 credit at the mid price right now, which isn't anything to go crazy over; a same expiry iron condor just isn't worth it). Nevertheless, we could see a greater volatility pop toward earnings that makes it a little bit more worthwhile such that I'll play just because there isn't that much else worthwhile to do ... . (Of course, there is that all FOMC thing next week, too).
NYSE:FDX
by NaughtyPines
DOW Transports To Retest Recent Lows(Note: DOWT is no longer in a bear market after rallying the last two weeks) 2015 was suppose to be just another year of the epic bull market created by reckless central banking policies. Some Wall Street estimates for the S&P 500 were as high as 2,300. Me? I projected a contraction to 1,810 in mid-January. Whether or not the SPX will reach my target within the next 10 weeks, or so, is uncertain; but what has been quite clear is the scaffolding holding with risk assets around the global has been crumbling for sometime. In " Is A Storm Brewing? How History is Repeating Itself ," I was clear and concise in what 2015 had in store (posted Jan. 13, 2015): I support the idea that we are on the precipitous of something disastrous. Those who constantly look at underlying factors and notice the shifts in the FX, commodity and economic data are witnessing that the latest boom cycle is on its last leg. In essence, the post was a summery of the marco trends few wrote about because everybody indulged in the feel-good of rising stock prices. The post ended quite ominously: "2015 is going to be mercurial…" On March 26, I indicated that the DOW transports looked technically weak. Price action had been consolidating early in the year, much like the SPX. The index made several lower highs, higher lows and finally broke support at 8600. Nobody was even looking at the transports as a potential catalyst to drag the broader markets lower, even though that is historically the case. For instance, Cowen Group's Head of Sales, David Seaburg, said, as late as June 25 (after the the transports already began weakening underneath consolidation), "Everyone is up in arms about the transports, but the underperformance has very little to do with a weak economy and has more to do with the structural issues within the sector." Seaburg also said that "I DEFINITELY don't see any downside (broader markets) necessarily." Almost a month-to-the-day, not only did the DOW and SPX hit their first 10 percent correction in four years, the DOW transports fell into bear market territory. Awkward. Those that live by subjectivity, die by subjectivity. The broader markets did receive a massive bounce following the largest NYSE short-interest since the Lehman Brothers collapse, but the transports has been rejected twice from 8,250, or the 23.6% Fib. retracement from the 2012-lows. It's important to note that central bank credibility is fading fast, and traders will become more wary as the year winds down. Structurally, the index looks weak as earnings have been lackluster to not good at all. EMAs are showing bullishness on the daily, as they are sloping upward. However, a close above 8,250 will be needed to garner any significant technical buying in my opinion. Price action is within a large symmetrical triangle with price support of 7,970 cutting through the middle. This key, near-term support level could determine whether the index will test triangle support, which is supported by price support of 7,790. A confirmed close below the triangle support will cause transports to retest the 2012 ascending trend line. I expect fundamentals to continue to deteriorate into 4Q, and the transports to challege 2011's trend (between 7,200 and 7,300). Conversely, a close above triangle resistance could cause a rally to 8,500. Please follow me on Twitter @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com
DJ:DJT
by CommoditiesTrader
6
Update on FDXIf you look at our chart of monthly FDX, the big picture hasn't changed, long term the rally is not over and once current correction is done, FDX will move back above 184. I just don't know now if the sideways action is still a bullish triangle or a bearish one. Both are possibles. Corrections are complex patterns. As long 166 holds, the current labeling holds with a rally in the cards pretty soon. As long 164 holds the bullish triangle is still unfolding, just taking its time. That would be wave C and more sideways action will be needed before take off. But if we breach 164 then it is a bearish triangle that should push prices lower towards 158.
NYSE:FDX
by yauger
FDX moving higher. Proxy for the stock market ?I am showing you a nice monthly chart of Fedex not to demonstrate my labeling skill but only to make one point : The bulls are running the parade and it's not over yet. Some might argue that one stock is not a good proxy for the overall equity market but a rising tide lift all boats and I found that stocks with the right look can often be used as a warning signal on what's coming. Actually in 2007 FDX not only rolled over before the overall market but way before the Trannies. Let's see if history will repeat itself. For now FDX is in a consolidation that could be over but with current overall market showing sign of exhaustion I would not be surprised if FDX drops back a bit maybe towards 160 before resuming its march higher. Then later, probably this fall, a larger decline should emerge scaring people away before sucking them all back in for the final rally to end this large advance from the 2009 low. For now, the when and the where are too difficult to predict but until further notice I am bullish FDX. Stay tuned
BATS:FDXLong
by yauger