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Fear

DXY EconomyThu 6/9 Z.1 - Financial Accounts of the United States 1:00 p.m. CP - Commercial Paper 4:15 p.m. H.15 - Selected Interest Rates 4:30 p.m. H.4.1 - Factors Affecting Reserve Balances Fri 6/10 1:00 p.m. CP - Commercial Paper 4:15 p.m. H.15 - Selected Interest Rates 4:15 p.m. H.8 - Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks in the U.S. Mon 6/13 1:00 p.m. CP - Commercial Paper 4:15 p.m. H.10 - Foreign Exchange Rates 4:15 p.m. H.15 - Selected Interest Rates Tue 6/14 1:00 p.m. CP - Commercial Paper 4:15 p.m. H.15 - Selected Interest Rates Wed 6/15 1:00 p.m. CP - Commercial Paper 2:00 p.m. FOMC Meeting Two-day meeting, June 14-15 Press Conference 4:15 p.m. H.15 - Selected Interest Rates Thu 6/16 1:00 p.m. CP - Commercial Paper 4:15 p.m. H.15 - Selected Interest Rates 4:30 p.m. H.4.1 - Factors Affecting Reserve Balances Fri 6/17 9:15 a.m. G.17 - Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization 1:00 p.m. CP - Commercial Paper 4:15 p.m. H.15 - Selected Interest Rates 4:15 p.m. H.8 - Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks in the U.S.
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by cryptobetgang
Volatility is contained, but for how long?Despite the Russia-Ukraine war, despite inflation being at record highs, the DXY making a new high since 2015-2016, the bond market being in its largest bear market and with equities down 20-30%, the VIX hasn't really spiked yet. So far volatility has been contained and every time the VIX would get overbought at 35 or above, it would slowly get back down. However I don't believe that it can get much lower without spiking first. In the short term it could get down to 20, but given the current circumstances, it is very hard for me to imagine that the top for the VIX won't come at around 48 or above. It is also very hard for me to imagine that it would get significantly below 20, therefore going long the VIX at 20 or below is a great strategy until the Fed pivots. However once it gets to 48 or higher it is time to start going long everything as the Fed is probably going to step in and try to save markets.
TVC:VIXLong
by BitcoinMacro
1
I quote my girlfriend "I'm always right" 🚀🚀Hello everyone, This is not a technical analysis Recently, from my magic ball I predicted a descent to 28k. Most of the people who lost their money were packed in LONG. Back then, I was breaking records when it comes to profits. Later greed spoke up and on the last little pimp I lost a lot of money in SHORT, of course through the levers. I was right, but so what;) You have to draw conclusions and not give up. At the moment, I see headlines about the cryptocurrency crash and that they are dying. This is a clear signal for me to recharge and keep my hands under my ass. There is extreme fear in the market and people make irrational decisions. Whales send bitcoins to leverage, so they need to be sure that there is little risk in the LONGs. Additionally, in retreat, most say we're going to $ 20k. You have to play against everyone to win something. As you probably already found out, there are the first cases of #monkeypox. The WHO may announce a new pandemic at the beginning of autumn. I compared it with the "COW ID" infection development statistics. I would be careful with long positions for this event. Good luck. Comment and like Regards #buydips
Long
by SayMoney
8
BTC fear and panicSo this is it.. As I posted before, the plan I was waiting for is now reached. BTC reached the 25-26k level, and now we hope it closes weekly above 31.5k to confirm that it is still in the range. This would give clear signal to build a position into 40ks. Otherwise, wait until we comeback into the range or buy btc at the next weekly support (20k) or best bet is monthly support (14k). I don't think we will reach these targets though and if stock market doesn't puke I believe the bottom has been reached or is very near.
Long
by TRDr11
Ideas for $QQQ in months aheadDon't think crash is coming (yet). Or any real correction. Earnings are too bullish for that, Fed is still keeping rates high. I think we still have room for an impulsive blow off (again) out of a historical resistance to 400s range on QQQ before speculators will start taking profits, rates rise and this comes crashing down. There is too much fear in markets now for there to be a real crash. Crashes occur at peak exuberance, and we have not reached that stage (yet). I bet 2022 will be a bear market.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by AlphaJi
1
LET'S GET REAL: Fear of Losing! Hey Traders, Most traders battle it. I myself had to progress past this in order to achieve consistent returns trading the markets. It is seen as one of the hardest challenges to pass in terms of emotional discipline. Understanding yourself better so you can make decisions in a calm, composed and consistent manner is crucial to success. Today I wanted to touch on that. I wanted to talk about the fear of losing what spurred from my fear of losing, how I progressed through it (it still creeps in from time to time). Hopefully you can take from my story and how it improved your trading or how it can help you progress past that fear of losing. If anyone has any questions or maybe some other stories in the way they progressed through a fear of losing or a fear of being a failure, please feel free to share in the comments and I'll get back to you as soon as possible. Have a fantastic trading week!
Education
by the5erstrading
6
US DOLLAR - Seniorage104.55 presents some issues for the perennial DX Bears. Will it arrive, we've been suggesting as much for months on end. It is quite often Gold Bugs who cheer the Dollars demise, without realizing Gold has moved up with the Dollar. Why? Curious is it not, but the answer is simply Fear. Projecting what should never be... is not a winning trade in Fear. We are reaching the later stage of Capitulation, extreme volatility signals this event. Tomorrow will be interesting as the MAY VIX Futures left several micro Gaps below @ 29.24 and 30.05. Is the end near? Yes, it is quickly and violently approaching. We will be watching the ES reaction @ 3949.50. Trade safe and good luck~! HK
ICEUS:DX1!
by HK_L61
have no fear, the professional idiot is here!to save the day. CV is a hoax. but on some real stuff they've poisoned our water supply. i would know, i'm nuttier than a peanut allergy. this schnitzlefrats is so overly simple, it's actually hilarious. KINDA. well, actually, kindareally hilarious. papa trump is workin the economy to make people money. not just him. not his cronies. not your grandpa. you. and everyone you care about. yet, panic? papa trump rewards you for being a good citizen of this dear country and you turn around and S E L L due to people who C O U G H? Know how I know that? Because I'm a professional amateur, and even I can see this incredibly easy pattern. Know how hard it is to figure out that pattern, as a complete idiot/noob/amateur/banana, etc? ezpzlmnsqz. go to google. type in elliott wave correction stuff search around look at patterns see if patterns match current pa ???profit Here, let me Google that for you: www.elliottwave.net scroll down a bit. look at traingles just so happens the "Corrective Wave (Horizontal) traignles " section shows EXACTLY what we are doing, at the BOTTOM of the 8 examples. the 4th one down. the bottom one. hmm. ANYONE can do this. stop being lazy. stop panicking. you have a stupidly easy once-a-decade-if-that opportunity here. utilize it. www.investors.com won't you take me to keksitown won't you take me to keksitown won't you take me to
TVC:DJILong
by UnknownUnicorn5836947
3
Our Fear & Greed Index shows "Greed" - Sell Greed, Buy FearOur Fear & Greed Index shows "Greed" - Sell Greed, Buy Fear Our version of Fear & Greed Index shows "Greed". The values on Fear and Greed Index range from -1000 000 (extreme fear) to 1000 000 (extreme greed). The zones are separated as follows: -500 000 = Extreme Fear -500 000 - 0 = Fear 0 - 500 000 = Greed 500 000+ = Extreme Greed It can be argued that when the market approaches or is in the "extreme greed" zone, traders are becoming overly greedy and the market is overdue for a correction. Similarly, it can be argued that when the market is in the "extreme fear" zone, traders are being overly cautious and the market will soon reverse. Our Fear and Greed Index gets updated every nanosecond. In order to calculate the fear and greed index, we gather data from 5 different sources: Volume Open Interest Social Media (Reddit & Twitter) Search Data (Google & Bing) AI opinion AI painted the chart using TradingView's native charting tools. Analysis: we used Google ML "Firebase" Toolkit, OXYBITS Space Invariant Artificial Neural Networks. 100% bots, zero humans, DYO before investment.
Short
by Elysian_Mind
1
Bitcoin FUD Update - Support has Broken! Will it be Confirmed?Traders, Quick evening update. Ya'll know I don't do this unless something unusual has occurred or is occurring. In my last video update on Monday , I mentioned that we needed to be a bit cautious this week because BTC loves to throw us a wicked curve ball every now and then. And that is exactly what seems to be occurring here. Recapping that video with a BLUF, I would state quickly that I was hoping for more of a retest of our support (which we did get). However, I was hoping that support would hold and that we'd move sideways through Friday. My cautionary flag, if you remember, was that everything seemed to be playing out precisely as expected for the last several weeks and when that happens, experience has taught me, be prepared for something new and different. And here we have it. A strong dip below support as the shorts go on the prowl for all those leveraged longs. Now, remember, I stated that we needed some good test of that support for me to really become more bullish. This dip below support is even better that I could have asked for. And I am super excited to see what is occurring here as it causes me to become even more bullish than even I expected to become (and I am a strong bull above that BLACK ascending trend line as you all know). So, here are a couple of things to note on my noisy chart: #1 - Doing Fibonacci from the wick low on March 14th to the wick high on March 22nd gives us some good levels. #2 - .618 Fib retracement intersect exactly with the 100 day ma which is also intersecting with the 50 day ma. This is huge! And this area of confluence provides us with such a strong support that it as if it almost repels the price above it from coming down to touch it. It will be difficult for the bears to get that contact but if they do, it will act as a trampoline of sorts to propel us upwards rapidly. #3 - .618 is a common retracement level and is often reached in a drawback. However, %50 retracement is also common and we have currently reached that level which is intersecting with an already drawn support level I had at around $43,000. Will this hold? Here are my expectations: #1 - We are back in the FUD zone. I don't know what happened news wise as I have been on a bit of a vacation around here, but I did see that the VIX spiked quite drastically: This spike in fear has obviously carried over, whatever it's cause is? But my charts are showing me that this fear my be quick lived. #2 - The dollar has done the expected and become even more bullish (as I already outline in the last video). When the VIX is up and the dollar is up, it's almost a 100% guarantee everything else will drop. And that is what has happened. Really, I don't expect us to spend too much time back in this "FUD ZONE" area. When I say "too much time" I mean that it won't be months again like it was last time. The bulls have signaled that they want to move higher with our break above $45,000 resistance last week. Liquidity is drying up (another reason for the quick drop) - a very bullish sign. And long term hodl'er wallets are at an all time high as $$$ moves off of exchanges to hard wallets. If I had to guess, I'd say were probably already almost done with this current drawback. Smoked out most of those leveraged longs and now we can proceed once again according to game plan. Maybe another day or two (a week at the most) is my best guess and we'll be on our way up and back over that support zone again! Take care my fellow traders, -Stewdam.us
INDEX:BTCUSD
by stewdamus
2
S&P500 Long Term Moving AveragesThis chart shows ES with 4 long term averages - 1 year, 5 year, 10 year, and 20 year. I marked some periods where we dipped below the 1 year average and some volume spikes I saw as relevant. 2015 - Eurozone Crisis: The issues in Europe cause us to finally break the long held trend for the first time since the GFC recovery. It was preceded by a high volume wick in 2014 and another in 2015, both of which seem to have established a bottom for the upcoming scare. Peak to Bottom in this period saw a drop of ~15%. 2018 - Repo Crisis: This period was also proceeded by a high volume wick but contrary to the last, it did not establish the floor for the upcoming drop. Instead, it was a bounce off the 1 year EMA trend. We saw volume start to rise leading to a large downside candle that signified the bottom. Peak to Bottom in this period saw a drop of ~22%. 2020 - Covid Crisis: Everyone knows what happened here. The sudden monster volume candle is due to the unexpected nature of this period and how dire the situation seemed. The bottom was almost exactly at the 10 year moving average before violently bouncing back up. Peak to Bottom in this period saw a drop of ~36%. The current crisis seems bad in the moment but with respect to these prior periods it is not crushing. We already have seen a peak to bottom drop of ~15% so matching the 2015 era would mean we have bottomed already. Matching the 2018 era would mean an additional ~10% from the current price and would put us around 3800. Matching the Covid era would be a disaster and would see us drop another 30% from here. The 35-40% peak to bottom drop would likely lineup at the 10 year moving average assuming it plays out the same (obviously it won't be exactly the same - these crashes are unpredictable) My opinion is that a Covid type crash is not in the cards. Things are nowhere near as bleak as they were then and there would be a strong fiscal/monetary response before we even got there. Also, black swan events are unpredictable so there is no point doing anything in advance to predict them - you can't. 2018 is a somewhat similar scenario but the Repo market is not at risk like it was then. The fed is also being much more clear about rate hikes this time around and clarity is bullish. I think the most similar scenario is 2015. We are seeing trouble in Europe after a recovery rally. Bonds look risky and everyone is calling for another crash. Earnings are still phenomenal and weak companies are getting flushed out without crashing the whole market. Maybe we retest the 4100 lows or even 4000 but I don't think we'll see a huge drop below that. If we do, I think we'll see massive buying pressure around 3800 and bears will run out of bad news and buying power. For a rally look for decreasing VIX and volume and for the Fed to stick to a clear plan. This would be better for stock buying than options and the 2021 WSB guys could get crushed by talented stock pickers. Buy quality and hold long term.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by Seth-Goldberg
LONG after Weekend BreakWeekly Timeframe Greed and Fear Index is now at #25. Weekly timeframe remains bearish saucer with the awesome oscillator. We can expect a sell off Friday. As a normal routine of the market. 1D Timeframe We have touch the 0.618 FIB retracement area and bounce a little. AO is bullish we can expect movement to the upside with our Ichimoku cloud finding support in $40,253. 4H Timeframe We are currently testing the demand zone of the market structure which in turn would continue our drop to the downside as the smart money will buy back this retest to continue the dump to the downside. all being controlled by a bot or algorithm. Rejection area $40,912. AO seems bearish at the moment as it is already in the correction area. We will discuss more on the possibility on our Live. Stay tune and check with us! Want more insights before US market open? Hit Like, Share, and Subscribe for more daily trading tutorial & cryptocurrency news Trade Scholar, the best cryptocurrency educational community online! Find the content above difficult to understand? Feeling lost about how to trade? Want to learn how to do your Own Price Prediction? We endeavour to share you our investment knowledge & experience in order to help you starting your path to financial freedom. Follow, Subscribe & Join our Community to trade together! Disclaimer: Above Technical Analysis is pure educational information, not Investment Advice. The information provided on this post does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice and you should not treat any of the website's content as such. Do conduct your own due diligence and consult your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
BINANCE:BTCUSD.PLong
by Trade_Scholar
BTC worst case scenario forecastThis situation is very likely to play out on BTCUSDT pair. Looking at this doom triangle and all the uncertainty in the market this is most likely going to result in a crash after breakout. Some hope for holders: This setup is so clear and logical and I see alot of people post about it, now look at it from the perspective of the composite man/market maker. How will he make the most money? By doing exactly the opposite. Give the traders a triangle breakout to the downside so they load some more short positions. At the same time market maker will be filling long positions ready to crush all retail traders. Give them a false breakout and then rally towards all time high. This whole situation can be seen as an accumulation phase.
by Honestcowboy
BTC Swing Long to 50kEntering a long trade given that we may be at Elliott wave 4 of 5. Will take profit along the red horizontal lines noted on the chart between 45k to 50k. Fear & Greed indicator reads as neutral and the liquidation levels adjusted for a daily time frame read below the while dotted, suggesting that there's still room in this uptrend before another corrective fractal comes in place. This idea is only valid as long as we hold the white solid trend where the price current sits ~41k and we don't fall under a 50% fib retracement of waves 2 to 3. Trade entry: 41.1k sl: 40k tp: 45k, 47k, 50k
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by linebands