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February2022

GOLD building LT cup-and-handle (4/5)Conviction: 4/5 Long-term cup and handle since 2011, looks like ready for completion However, in the short term, price is forming pennant. Currently at support of pennant, could be good entry point. To be more prudent, should probably wait until confirmation of breakout from top of pennant to enter. Considerations Rising yield => rising real yield => historically bad for gold, but it has not really been following real-yield relationship since bull run of 2020. Recession risk (from falling PMI) should help gold outperform stocks, HOWEVER, in first move down, correlation usually goes to 1 (i.e. it will participate)
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by asdf098
VALUE put in double bottom! (4/5)Conviction: 4/5 Value looks ripe for long-term out-performance against Growth stocks (Russell 1000 Value vs Russell 1000 Growth) Just put in double bottom, similar to what happened in 2000 peak. HOWEVER, this is bad for general markets, as most of the out-performance that happened last time in 2000 was due to Value GOING DOWN LESS than Growth... RISKS, the level of double bottom does not seem to correspond to any established support level... so could always go down, perhaps wait until breakout of downtrend to go all in????? Also, data set is relatively short for Value/Growth relationships, it is known that these relative performances can play out over decades (as you see from Growth out-performance since 2006 ish)... so we only have MAYBE 1 full cycle...
RLong
by asdf098
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