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Coffee Pullback or Opportunity?The COT report dated May 20, 2025, reveals a gradual cooling of speculative sentiment in the coffee market. Non-commercials (speculative funds and money managers), who had largely fueled the strong rally towards the 420 USX/lb highs, are now closing long positions (–2,599 contracts), though they still maintain a significantly positive net exposure (+43,300 net contracts). At the same time, commercials (industry operators such as roasters, exporters, and processors) have reduced both their long and short positions. However, the drop in short hedges (–4,103 contracts) is an important signal—it may suggest less need for downside protection at current prices, often an early sign of a potential market bottom. Total open interest has decreased by 4,406 contracts, signaling a phase of liquidation and consolidation, where traders are reducing exposure rather than initiating new positions. 📌 Fundamental conclusion: The market is undergoing a healthy reset following the Q1 2025 boom, with speculators stepping back and commercials cautiously optimistic. 📈 Seasonal Analysis Seasonal tendencies align well with the current technical outlook. May is historically a weak month, with negative average returns across most time frames (10y, 15y, 20y). However, from June—especially July onward, data shows a strong seasonal rebound, with July–August being statistically the best-performing period of the year for coffee. This is partly due to climate-related risks (Brazilian winter, frost risk) and harvest/logistics cycles in key producing regions. 📌 Seasonal conclusion: June may offer a strategic accumulation window ahead of the traditional summer coffee rally. 🧭 Technical Analysis (Daily) The KC1! daily chart clearly reflects a distribution and correction phase following the early March peak at 420 USX/lb. Price has broken below the 355–360 demand zone and is currently testing a key support area between 340 and 325, previously established as a demand base during January–February 2025. The medium-term trend remains bullish, but the market is now in a downward corrective channel, with lower highs and lower lows. The weekly RSI sits in a low-neutral range—not yet fully oversold, suggesting there may still be room for further downside, though the bulk of the correction may already be priced in. 📌 Technical conclusion: The market is undergoing a deep pullback within a broader uptrend and is approaching potential reversal zones. 🔎 Strategic Outlook The coffee market is in the midst of a cyclical and technical correction following its sharp Q1 2025 rally. The COT report reflects a rebalancing of speculative positioning, while commercials appear less aggressive on the short side. Seasonality favors a rebound starting June, and the technicals point to a potential long-entry zone around 340–325, attractive for medium-term positioning. ✅ Recommended Trading Setup Base scenario (medium-term long): Entry: Between 340 and 325 USX/lb (gradual accumulation) Stop Loss: Weekly close below 320 (bearish confirmation) Target 1: 390 (intermediate supply zone) Target 2: 410–420 (return to highs) Confluence: RSI support, COT shift, seasonal upside, technical demand zone Alternative scenario (bearish breakdown): Only if weekly closes below 320 This would open room toward 300–285 USX/lb 📌 Final Conclusion While short-term caution is warranted, current conditions offer attractive long re-entry opportunities for those who await confirmation around the 325–340 support area. The ideal setup would include: Weekly stabilization with higher lows Renewed speculative long positioning in COT Seasonal momentum kicking in from mid-June
ICEUS:KC1!Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
3
USDCHF – Awaiting Breakout Ahead of FOMC: Key Levels in Focus USDCHF – Awaiting Breakout Ahead of FOMC: Key Levels in Focus 📌 MARKET OVERVIEW USDCHF is currently consolidating within a tight range after a technical rebound from the 0.8226 support zone. The price is testing a confluence area at the descending trendline and the 200 EMA on the H2 chart, indicating indecision between bulls and bears as we head into the high-impact FOMC event. 🔍 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – H2 CHART Overall Trend: Sideways corrective move within a broader downtrend channel. Price is approaching critical resistance at the EMA200 and the channel’s upper boundary. EMAs in focus: EMA13 (black), EMA34 (orange), EMA89 (red). Fibonacci Retracement: Price is hovering around the 0.5 fib zone (0.8298), a neutral level for potential reaction. 🎯 Key Levels & Trade Scenarios: Major Resistance Zone: 0.8330 – 0.8368 → aligned with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and previous structural high. Key Support Zone: 0.8226 → strong demand area. A break below this could expose deeper downside or set up a false break trap. 📌 Most Likely Path: Price could dip back to 0.8226 before launching a bullish recovery targeting 0.8330 – 0.8368. A clean breakout above 0.8368 with momentum and volume could invalidate the bearish bias and shift the trend mid-term. 🌍 MACRO & FUNDAMENTAL CONTEXT FOMC IN FOCUS: The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady at the upcoming meeting. However, market attention will be on Powell’s tone. A hawkish stance could fuel further USD strength, propelling USDCHF toward resistance zones. SNB (Swiss National Bank) maintains a neutral tone with slight disinflationary concerns, offering limited support for the CHF and strengthening the USDCHF upside case. US Treasury Yields are showing signs of recovery, adding bullish pressure to USD pairs. 📌 TRADING STRATEGY: Watch for bullish reaction at 0.8226 – potential long setup if RSI divergence appears. Short-term targets: 0.8330 → 0.8368. Breakout Strategy: If price clears 0.8368 with conviction, shift bias to bullish continuation and monitor for FVG or trendline breakout alignment. 📣 Stay sharp for increased volatility around FOMC. Position sizing and discipline are key in macro-heavy weeks like this.
Long
by MMFlowTrading
2
XAUUSD - Will Gold Continue to Fall?!Gold is trading in its ascending channel on the 1-hour timeframe, between the EMA200 and EMA50. I expect the direction ahead for gold to be bullish and if it breaks the downtrend line, we can look for buying opportunities. The U.S. dollar rose following a decision by the United States Court of International Trade to revoke tariffs imposed by Donald Trump. Since the Trump administration, there have been continual developments regarding tariffs, and this latest ruling, which blocks Trump’s retaliatory tariffs, has stirred uncertainty and confusion over its legal validity. The ruling also triggered a correction in gold’s upward trend. According to the U.S. Constitution, the power to impose tariffs officially resides with Congress. However, since 1962, much of this authority has been delegated to the executive branch. Courts have historically upheld this delegation to the president, but this recent judgment casts doubt on the legitimacy of such executive powers. The pressing question now is whether Trump can circumvent the ruling. Could he potentially ignore it or take counteraction? Any move by Trump in response would undoubtedly ripple through the financial markets. Goldman Sachs has characterized the court’s decision as a new obstacle for Trump’s trade strategy, though it notes the ruling only applies to part of the tariffs.Analysts at the firm believe Trump may find legal or procedural means to work around the court’s decision, possibly introducing new strategies to maintain his tariff agenda. Citing customs data, ING commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey reported that despite record-high prices, China’s gold imports reached their highest level in eleven months last month. Since the beginning of the year, gold prices have surged by more than 20%. Total gold imports climbed to 127.5 metric tons, marking a 73% increase from the previous month. This sharp rise followed the People’s Bank of China’s issuance of new import quotas to select commercial banks in April. With a year-to-date gain exceeding 20%, gold hit an all-time high of $3,500 per ounce in April. Key drivers of this rally include geopolitical risk and sustained purchases by central banks. In the broader metals sector, China’s refined copper production in April reached a new monthly record, rising 9% year-on-year to 1.25 million metric tons, even as processing fees remained low. Meanwhile, lead production declined by 1% from the previous year to 664,000 tons, while zinc output edged up by 0.3% to 576,000 tons. According to the International Aluminium Institute, global aluminum production in April remained flat compared to the prior month, averaging 201,100 metric tons per day. However, on a year-over-year basis, output increased by 2.24%.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
Australian inflation higher than expected, Aussie extends lossesThe Australian dollar has extended its losses on Wednesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6415 in the North American session, down 0.44% on the day. Australia's inflation rate remained unchanged in April at 2.4% y/y for a third straight month, matching the lowest rate since Nov. 2024. The reading was slightly higher than the market estimate of 2.3% but remained within the central bank's inflation target of 2%-3%. Trimmed mean inflation, the central bank's preferred indicator for underlying inflation, edged up to 2.8% from 2.7% in March. The inflation report was mildly disappointing in that inflation was hotter than expected. Underlying inflation has proven to be persistent which could see the Reserve Bank of Australia delay any rate cuts. The markets have responded by lowering the probability of a rate cut in July to 62%, compared to 78% a day ago, according to the ASX RBA rate tracker. A key factor in the July decision will be the second-quarter inflation report in late July, ahead of the August meeting. The Reserve Bank lowered rates last week by a quarter-point to 3.85%, a two-year low. The central bank left the door open to further cuts, as global trade uncertainties are expected to lower domestic growth and inflation. The Federal Reserve releases the minutes of its May 7 meeting later today. At the meeting, the Fed stressed that it wasn't planning to lower rates anytime soon and the minutes are expected to confirm the Fed's wait-and-see stance. US President Trump has been zig-zagging on trade policy, imposing and then cancelling tariffs on China and the European Union. Fed Chair Powell said at the May meeting that the economic uncertainty due to tariffs means that the appropriate rate path is unclear and that message could be reiterated in the Fed minutes.
by OANDA
USDJPY - Will the dollar weakness stop?!The USDJPY currency pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its ascending channel. In case of correction due to the release of today's economic data, we can see a downward trend and then see the demand zone and buy in that range with an appropriate risk-reward ratio. A credible break of the indicated resistance range will pave the way for the currency pair to rise. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba emphasized that investment is more crucial to economic growth than tariffs, reaffirming Japan’s continued commitment to negotiating the removal of U.S. trade tariffs. He also pointed to encouraging signs in the Japanese economy following wage increases and offered an optimistic outlook on the country’s recovery. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, speaking on Wednesday, warned that significant volatility in ultra-long-term bond yields could affect short-term borrowing costs, which in turn might exert a stronger impact on the broader economy. His remarks highlight the BOJ’s growing focus on recent fluctuations in long-dated bond yields, which could influence the board’s decision next month regarding the pace of its bond purchase reduction. Ueda explained that in Japan, short- and medium-term interest rates tend to have more direct influence on the economy than ultra-long yields, due to the maturity structure of household and corporate debt. However, he acknowledged in a parliamentary session that sharp moves in ultra-long yields can also affect long- and even short-term bond yields indirectly. Turning to Friday’s inflation report, expectations suggest that overall inflation remained subdued in April, as falling gasoline prices provided some relief to household budgets. However, core inflation—excluding food and energy—remains stubbornly high. The PCE inflation index is anticipated to have risen 2.2% in April from a year earlier, slightly down from 2.3% in March, marking the lowest level since last September. Federal Reserve officials are still awaiting more data on how newly imposed tariffs are feeding into the broader economy, making it unlikely that the recent moderation in inflation will prompt a rate cut in the near term. Although the Fed’s preferred inflation measure may have reached its lowest point since September, a second consecutive month of encouraging price data is unlikely to be sufficient to justify easing interest rates. According to a survey conducted by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal, economists expect Friday’s report—covering inflation, income, and spending—from the Bureau of Economic Analysis to show that consumer prices rose 2.2% year-over-year through April. This would mark the lowest reading since September and a potential turning point in the Fed’s battle against post-pandemic inflation. Goldman Sachs economists noted that falling gasoline prices have more than offset the inflationary impact of new tariffs introduced by the Trump administration. However, they cautioned that this dynamic may not last, as retailers are likely to start passing along the added import tax costs to consumers in the coming months. Several Federal Reserve officials, concerned that tariffs could reignite inflation, have stated that they will wait to assess the full impact of these trade policies on the economy before making changes to the federal funds rate—which directly affects borrowing costs on everything from mortgages and auto loans to credit cards.
Long
by Ali_PSND
US500 - Will the stock market reach ATH?!The index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. I expect the index to continue moving, and on the other hand, if the index declines towards a certain zone, you can also look for the next S&P long positions with a risk-reward ratio. Yesterday, a U.S. federal court halted the implementation of President Trump’s “Freedom Day” tariffs. The U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that these tariffs exceeded the legal authority granted to the president and unanimously decided to revoke them. Nonetheless, Trump still retains the right to appeal the ruling. Following the court’s decision, President Trump promptly filed an appeal. In response, the White House issued a statement asserting, “The decision on how to handle a national emergency should not fall into the hands of unelected judges.” Meanwhile, the market reacted strongly to Nvidia’s latest financial report. The company’s stock surged by as much as 5.8% in after-hours trading, before settling at a 4.8% gain compared to the previous day. This bullish movement reflects investors’ confidence in Nvidia’s continued strong performance. Nvidia is actively expanding into new markets, including the Middle East—an indication that the company is poised for sustained growth even if its presence in China is constrained. The rally in Nvidia’s stock didn’t just lift semiconductor companies; broader markets followed suit. The S&P 500 index climbed to 6,005.75 points, representing a 1.7% increase from the prior session. According to the company’s announcement, Nvidia posted $44.1 billion in revenue for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, marking a 69% increase year-over-year and slightly surpassing analysts’ expectations. Revenue from data center operations rose 73% to reach $39.1 billion. CEO Jensen Huang stated: “Our Blackwell NVL72 AI supercomputer—designed for reasoning and acting as a ‘thinking machine’—is now being mass-produced by system builders and cloud service providers.” He added, “There is enormous global demand for Nvidia’s AI infrastructure. Over the past year alone, AI inference token generation has grown tenfold. As AI agents become mainstream, the demand for AI compute will continue to surge.” A Reuters poll now projects that the S&P 500 will reach 5,900 by the end of 2025—down from the 6,500 level forecast in February. Similarly, the Dow Jones index is expected to close 2025 at 43,708, compared to the previous projection of 47,024 from the February survey. Separately, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) reported that the increase in U.S. bank profits was largely driven by growth in noninterest income. Bank earnings in the first quarter of 2025 rose by 5.8%, reaching $70.6 billion. While overall asset quality remains favorable, the commercial real estate loan portfolios continue to show signs of weakness. The number of “problem banks” declined by three, bringing the total down to 63. The banking industry also reported a slowdown in lending growth; the annual loan growth rate for the first quarter was just 3%, down from the pre-pandemic average of 4.9%.
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by Ali_PSND
GBP/USD Ready to Explode or Collapse? All Eyes on 1.3600British Pound (CFTC - CME) Commercial traders increased their long positions by +1,839 contracts and short positions by +3,597. Net exposure remains negative, but the significant short increase suggests active hedging and risk management. Non-Commercial traders (speculators) reduced their longs by -1,396 and increased their shorts by +1,827, signaling weakening sentiment toward the GBP. Open Interest rose modestly by +465 → showing renewed engagement, though there’s clear divergence between Commercial and Non-Commercial positioning. Implication: Net pressure remains bearish, but there's evidence of short saturation from Commercials, possibly hinting at a consolidation phase or reversal ahead. USD Index (ICE Futures) Non-Commercials increased both longs (+2,044) and shorts (+1,975), signaling indecision. Commercials slightly increased long exposure (+689), while shorts remained mostly flat (-114). Implication: The dollar shows cautious strengthening, but with no strong directional conviction. A period of ranging price action is likely. 2. Retail Sentiment 67% of retail traders are short GBP/USD, with only 33% long. Volume favors short positions as well: 7,727 lots vs. 3,866 long. Implication: From a contrarian perspective, the excessive short bias among retail traders supports a short-term bullish scenario, possibly driven by a short squeeze or liquidity run. 3. Historical Seasonality May shows a historically bearish tendency: 10-Year Avg: -2.22% 5-Year Avg: -1.60% 2-Year Avg: -0.65% Implication: Seasonal bias remains negative, but should be interpreted alongside COT and sentiment data to avoid misleading signals. 4. Technical Analysis Price is currently trading inside a weekly resistance zone between 1.3513 and 1.3600, following a strong bounce from a dynamic support. A previous structure break failed to follow through → bull trap was avoided. The weekly RSI is rising from neutral levels, suggesting momentum is shifting upward. Previous demand zones around 1.3176 and 1.3047 held well. Implication: A potential breakout is forming, but it occurs near a key technical level. Without strong volume or fundamentals, the area may trigger a sell reaction. 5. Market Depth There is a heavy cluster of short orders above current price, while long orders appear scattered and less aggressive. This creates a liquidity magnet effect, which may lead to bullish spikes towards 1.3550–1.3600 before any meaningful distribution. Implication: Potential upside extension in the short-term to hunt stops, followed by a bearish reaction. 🎯 Operational Outlook Main Bias: Neutral-to-Bullish short-term, Bearish (Seasonal) mid-term Key levels to watch: Resistance: 1.3550–1.3600 Support zone: Ascending trendline and 1.3340–1.3176 Likely Scenarios: Price may spike toward 1.3550 to clear liquidity before facing rejection. A confirmed weekly close above 1.3610 opens the door to 1.3750. A drop below 1.3340 confirms structural reversal and bearish continuation.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
3
New Zealand dollar sharply lower, RBNZ cut expectedThe New Zealand dollar is sharply lower on Tuesday. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5950, down 0.83% on the day. A day earlier, the New Zealand dollar touched a high of 0.6031, its highest level since Oct. 2024. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely expected to lower rates by a quarter-point to 3.25% on Wednesday. With little doubt about the decision, investors will be focusing on the Reserve Bank's updated forecasts. The markets are looking at another rate cut in July and perhaps one more later in the year, which would lower the cash rate below 3.0%. The RBNZ has been dealing with a weak domestic economy and a deteriorating outlook for the global economy due to US President Trump's erratic tariff policy. The RBNZ would like to continue trimming rates and restore consumer and business confidence. New Zealand's inflation was higher than expected in the first quarter at 2.5%, up from 2.2% in Q4 2024. This is within the Bank's inflation target of 1%-3% and means that inflation levels won't prevent the Bank from lowering rates on Wednesday. US durable goods orders plunges, consumer confidence surges In the US, Durable Goods Orders declined by 6.3% m/m in April, after a 7.5% gain in March, which was the fastest pace of growth since July 2020. The soft reading managed to beat the market estimate of -7.8%. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence index, which has fallen steadily this year, surged to 98.0 in May, up from 86.0 in April and blowing past the market estimate of 87.0. We'll hear from more Federal Reserve members on Wednesday, which could provide some insights into the Fed's rate path. The Fed has adopted a wait-and-see stance and is widely expected to hold rates for a fourth straight time at the next meeting on June 18. NZD/USD has pushed below support at 0.5978 and is testing 0.5955. Below, there is support at 0.5928 There is resistance at 0.6005 and 0.6028
by OANDA
USD/JPY Breakdown: Is 140 the Next Target? Smart Money Says Yes!USD/JPY is currently in a highly interesting technical and macro phase, characterized by divergences between price action and institutional positioning, negative seasonal signals, and retail sentiment that goes against what would typically be expected in a reversal scenario. Let’s break it down: 1. Institutional Positioning (COT Report) The COT data reveals a mixed picture with bearish implications for USD/JPY: On the USD side, non-commercial traders continue to increase their net long exposure (+2,044 new long contracts this week). However, this rise is almost equally offset by +1,975 new shorts, indicating indecision and hedging activity. For the Japanese Yen, non-commercials (speculators) are significantly rebuilding long JPY positions, while commercials have started covering their short exposure. 📌 Implication: The net flow favors the Yen, meaning bearish pressure on USD/JPY. The increase in JPY long positions reflects expectations of a stronger Yen in the short to medium term. 2. Historical Seasonality Seasonal data reinforces the bearish bias: In May and June, USD/JPY has historically posted negative returns. The 5-year average shows -0.57 in May and -0.76 in June, with both the 2Y and 10Y averages confirming a similar downward seasonal pattern. 📌 Implication: The current seasonal window does not favor a USD rebound vs. the Yen. Historically, the likelihood of downside increases into early summer. 3. Retail Sentiment Retail traders are heavily long, with 64% positioned long on USD/JPY versus 36% short. 📌 Implication: From a contrarian perspective, this is a bearish signal. Markets tend to move against retail positioning, adding further downside risk. 4. Price Action & Technical Structure (Daily Chart) On the weekly chart: Price broke the key 144.00 support decisively, closing the week at 142.81. Structure shows lower highs and lower lows, typical of a bearish trend. RSI is falling but still above oversold levels, leaving room for further downside. First demand zone: 141.50–142.20. A confirmed break could open the way to 140.00–139.80. Key resistance on any pullback: 145.00–146.00. 📌 Implication: The confirmed break of support activated a bearish continuation setup, unless short-term bounces offer new sell opportunities near resistance. 5. Market Depth Market depth shows a strong cluster of long orders above current levels, while short volumes appear fragmented. This suggests any short-term rally could face aggressive selling between 144.50–145.50. 🎯 Conclusion & Operational Outlook The overall context points to a high probability of further downside in USD/JPY over the short to medium term: Smart money is rotating toward the Yen. Seasonal patterns historically support a drop in May–June. Contrarian retail sentiment adds additional bearish weight. The weekly chart confirms a break of structure, opening space below 141.50.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
6
EUR/USD at a Crossroads: Will the Bears Strike Back from 1.14? 📍1. TECHNICAL CONTEXT EUR/USD is trading around 1.1405, inside an ascending channel and right within a supply zone (1.1370–1.1470), which already triggered a rejection on April 16. Price action currently shows hesitation, with three consecutive candles at the top of the channel and RSI divergence, suggesting a loss of bullish momentum after an overextension. The bullish trendline from April remains intact and validated, but the upside is narrowing. Likely scenario: bullish exhaustion followed by a pullback towards 1.1270–1.1220, with a potential retest of both the trendline and the lower boundary of the channel. 📊2. COT REPORT (USD & EUR) – Updated to May 20 USD Index: Non-Commercials added +2,044 net longs, but also +1,975 new shorts. Open Interest rose by +2,207 → a more active market, but still mixed. Net exposure remains neutral to slightly bearish for the dollar. EURO FX: Non-Commercials cut -3,587 longs and added +6,814 shorts, while Commercials increased longs by +16,796. Speculative funds are gradually shifting short on the Euro, while Commercials continue to hedge long. → Combined read: Large speculators are reducing their Euro exposure and staying cautious on the Dollar. Short-term pressure on EUR/USD remains bearish, though no macro reversal yet. 📉3. SENTIMENT & POSITIONING Retail sentiment shows 71% of traders are short EUR/USD — a classically contrarian signal. However, price is now sitting in a liquidity cluster where smart money might exploit a final squeeze before a real reversal. Market depth shows strong imbalance, with long orders stacked above current price — suggesting potential stop hunt already triggered or about to fade. 🧭4. SEASONALITY Historically, May is a bearish month for EUR/USD: -0.0079 on 20-year average, and -0.0163 on 10-year average. Seasonality supports late May weakness and potential downside continuation into early June. ✅ TRADING OUTLOOK 📌 Primary Bias: short-term corrective bearish, waiting for clearer reversal signals. 📌 Key Reaction Zone: 1.1400–1.1470 → structural short area, already tested. 📌 Bearish Target: 1.1270 > 1.1210 (golden pocket + trendline confluence) 📌 Setup invalidation: daily close above 1.1470 with volume → possible extension to 1.1550/1.1580 📌 Macro support: Commercials remain long on the Euro → underlying structure still bullish, but too early to fade short-term bearish momentum.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
9
Cocoa Explosion Loading? Specs & Hedgers Agree🔍 Fundamental Analysis – Commitment of Traders (COT) The latest COT report, dated May 13, 2025, reveals a strong bullish accumulation signal, with a significant increase in long positions across all major trader categories. Specifically, Non-Commercials (speculative traders such as hedge funds and money managers) increased their long positions by +3,490 contracts while simultaneously reducing shorts by -467 contracts. This dynamic reflects renewed speculative confidence in the cocoa bullish trend. Simultaneously, Commercials (typically producers and processors) added +5,187 long contracts and closed -661 short contracts. This is especially noteworthy, as commercials usually take the opposite side of speculators. Here, however, their alignment with speculators may indicate expectations of upcoming supply constraints or market stress. Total open interest rose by more than +6,000 contracts, suggesting real capital inflow into the market rather than just rebalancing. This alignment between speculators and institutional hedgers is rare and often precedes further price appreciation. 📈 Net Positions & Price Action Looking at the “Net Positions & Prices” chart over the past year, it’s clear that Non-Commercial net positions are recovering after a notable drop in March and April. This reversal aligns with the technical bottom and the start of the current price rally. Commercials, although still net short (in line with their historical bias), are reducing their bearish exposure, hinting at lower physical supply pressure or a need for hedging against further price increases. Price action has reflected this narrative, surging higher following the April lows. 🕰️ Seasonal Analysis Seasonality adds another layer to the analysis. Historically, May tends to be flat or slightly bearish (10Y and 15Y averages), but the 2-Year seasonal line—which better reflects current market behavior—shows a strong bullish tendency starting mid-month. This supports the ongoing rebound and increases the likelihood of further upside in the short term. Historical data also shows that June, while volatile, is often positive or neutral in shorter cycles. 📊 Technical Analysis From a technical perspective, cocoa recently completed a strong bullish leg, rebounding from the 8,800–9,000 USD demand zone, identified as a clear area of institutional buying (evident through volume and impulsive candles). The price then decisively broke through mid-range resistance levels and tested a key weekly supply zone between 11,200 and 11,500 USD, where it was initially rejected. Currently, we are in a technical pullback, likely targeting the mitigation zone at 9,700–10,000 USD. This area represents a solid long entry opportunity if the market confirms a bullish structure on intraday charts (H1 or H4). The RSI is near overbought, yet without divergence—suggesting the trend remains structurally bullish despite a natural correction. 🧭 Strategic Conclusion Cocoa currently shows a rare convergence of bullish signals: supportive COT positioning, increasing net long interest, strong 2Y seasonality, and clear technical structure controlled by buyers. However, after the recent sharp upside move, a correction to key support zones is likely before another bullish leg unfolds.
ICEUS:CC1!Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
11
GBP/USD About to Explode?GBP/USD is currently trading around the 1.3360–1.3380 zone after testing the key weekly resistance area between 1.3400 and 1.3450. The bullish momentum remains strong, supported by speculative positioning still favoring the pound, while the dollar shows signs of softening. On the macro side, the interest rate differential between the UK and the US may narrow in the coming months, but for now, it continues to support upward pressure on the pair. From a technical standpoint, price has broken out of an ascending triangle on the daily chart, showing strong momentum and confirmation with multiple closes above 1.3300. Market sentiment remains skewed to the short side, adding contrarian fuel to the bullish bias. The key short-term support lies between 1.3270 and 1.3300. As long as this area holds, the base case favors a continuation toward 1.3520 and potentially 1.3600. A break below 1.3170 would invalidate the current bullish structure and open the door for a deeper pullback toward 1.3000. From an execution standpoint, a confirmed breakout above 1.3415 could offer a long entry opportunity with active management. Still, caution is advised around the weekly supply zone due to its historical responsiveness. Eyes remain on upcoming macro data and potential volatility from central bank statements.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
11
Corn at a Historical Turning Point? Corn futures are currently at a technically significant juncture. After an extended bearish phase from the yearly highs, price has reached a key monthly demand zone between 445 and 435 cents, an area that has historically triggered major reversals. This level is further validated by technical signals indicating potential exhaustion of the bearish momentum: the price action is showing rejection candles, and the RSI is recovering from oversold territory, creating room for a possible upside move. However, it’s important to consider the seasonal context, which doesn’t favor an immediate reversal. Historical data shows that May, June, and July are statistically the weakest months for Corn. In particular, July tends to be highly bearish, with an average performance of -22% over the last 20 years and -36% over the last 10. This means that while the technical setup may suggest a potential bounce, seasonal pressure may continue to cap prices in the short term, making a sustained rally unlikely before August. The COT positioning adds another layer of insight. Non-commercial traders (speculators) have recently closed a significant number of long positions and added shorts, reflecting strong bearish sentiment. In contrast, commercials (hedgers) have increased long exposure and decreased shorts, signaling optimism and a willingness to accumulate at these levels. This divergence often marks contrarian opportunities, especially when speculators are heavily short and commercials are heavily long—often a sign of a market bottom forming. 🧠 Summary: Corn is sitting on major structural support, with early signs of a potential rebound. Yet, the seasonality remains bearish through mid-summer. The COT report, however, supports a bullish medium-term outlook, particularly heading into August–September, when prices historically begin to climb decisively. 🔔 Trading Outlook: In the short term, tactical longs can be considered if the 445–435 area holds, with tight risk management. Initial targets are set at 465 and 472. The true strategic setup, however, is more likely to emerge in the coming months, with August as the key window for a sustained upside move supported by both seasonal and COT positioning.
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
15
USD/JPY Breakdown Incoming? 4 Powerful Signals Say 'Short Now'! The current landscape for USD/JPY signals a potential bearish reversal, supported by a convergence of technical, sentiment, and fundamental factors. Following a strong bullish leg from the 140 zone, price has reached the 146–147 resistance area, where it is currently being rejected. Price action has broken below the ascending channel that began in early April, suggesting a loss of bullish momentum and a possible transition into a deeper corrective phase. From the COT (Commitment of Traders) perspective, the picture aligns with this bias. Non-commercials on the USD Index (DXY) are aggressively reducing exposure on both long and short sides, resulting in a net position of -615 contracts. This reflects growing uncertainty or waning confidence in dollar strength as U.S. monetary policy enters a potential pivot zone. Meanwhile, JPY futures still show a strong net long position by speculators (194,226 long vs. 21,958 short), even after a significant long liquidation of over 9,700 contracts. Commercial traders, typically positioned opposite to trend, remain heavily net short—hinting at possible strength ahead for the yen. Seasonality adds further weight: May is historically a bearish month for USD/JPY. The 5, 10, and 15-year averages all show negative returns, with a structural downside tendency, especially in the final two weeks of the month. Retail sentiment further supports this case. Data shows that 68% of retail traders are currently long USD/JPY. Interpreting this through a contrarian lens, it implies growing downside potential, as over-positioned retail traders often precede a move in the opposite direction. Lastly, technical analysis (daily timeframe) reinforces the bearish scenario. The break below the bullish channel invalidates the recent structure, and the RSI is trending lower with plenty of room to move down before hitting oversold levels. Immediate support zones lie between 143 and 141. A potential retest of 145.80–146.30 would offer a favorable entry for fresh shorts in line with a developing bearish swing structure. 🎯 Conclusion All elements—technical structure, COT data, seasonal weakness, and retail sentiment—are converging toward a bearish USD/JPY outlook. Institutional traders are cutting dollar longs, seasonal forces are negative, and retail positioning is overly long. With price structure now broken, the bearish bias is well supported, targeting 143 first and 141 as a deeper move, pending price action confirmation.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
5
EURAUD Ready to Launch? Institutions Positioning for a Big Move!🔍 1. COT REPORT (Commitment of Traders) EUR: Net Positioning (Non-Commercial): +75,253 → Bullish, but slightly reduced this week (-3,587 longs, +6,814 shorts). Commercials: Heavily short (550,286 vs 423,456 longs) → Hedging against potential EUR strength. Open interest change: +8,343 contracts → Higher market participation, active environment. AUD: Net Positioning (Non-Commercial): -59,077 → Strong bearish sentiment on AUD. Commercials: Net long (121,279 vs 61,743 shorts) → Fundamental support for AUD at potential value areas. Open interest down (-2,607) → Possible position unwinding or rollover. 📊 COT Conclusion: Speculators favor EUR long / AUD short, but commercials are positioned inversely, suggesting a potential reversal point. 📈 2. SEASONALITY EUR in May: Generally negative, with average monthly performance over 10y, 15y, and 20y ranging between -0.01% and -0.02%. Only the 2y curve shows strength (≈+0.0194). AUD in May: Mixed performance: 10y and 5y negative, but 2y slightly positive (+0.0083) → sign of recent improvement. 📊 Seasonality Conclusion: Slight edge for AUD thanks to near-term seasonal resilience. 💡 3. SENTIMENT Retail traders: 84% short on EURAUD. Average short entry: 1.7002, current price ≈ 1.7491 → many are in drawdown. High short congestion above 1.74 → Potential short squeeze setup. 📊 Sentiment Conclusion: Environment favors a bullish push to trigger stops and unwind retail shorts. 🧠 4. PRICE ACTION Price reacted to a major demand zone at 1.7200–1.7350. Last two weekly candles show compression and accumulation following strong bearish momentum. Clear liquidity pocket above 1.76–1.77, targeting the 1.79–1.80 zone. RSI showing recovery from oversold conditions. 📊 Technical Conclusion: Structure suggests rebound or reversal, aligned with sentiment and positioning dynamics. 🔚 STRATEGIC OUTLOOK Primary Bias: LONG EURAUD (multi-day / swing setup) 🎯 Target: 1.7700 – 1.7920 🛡️ Stop: Below 1.7310 (weekly close under demand zone) ⚠️ Alternative (Scenario B): A clear weekly close below 1.7300 may reactivate the bearish trend toward 1.7200.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
3
British Pound resumes rally as retail sales jumpThe British pound has posted gains on Friday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3484, up 0.49% on the day. The pound has gained 1.5% this week and is trading at levels not seen since Feb. 2022. The markets were expecting a banner reading from April retail sales but the actual numbers crushed the forecast. Annual retail sales surged 5%, up from a downwardly revised 1.9% and above the market estimate of 4.5%. This marked the fastest pace of growth since Feb. 2022. Monthly, retail sales climbed 1.2%, up from a downwardly revised 0.3% in March and blowing past the market estimate of 0.2%. The surge was driven by sharp gains in food store sales and department stores, as favorable weather brought out consumers. The UK economy has been struggling and strong consumer spending has been a bright spot. Monthly retail sales have now increased for four straight months, which last occurred in 2020. The UK consumer spending more and is showing more optimism. The GfK consumer confidence index for May improved to -20 from -23 and beat the market estimate of -22. The improvement is likely a result of the de-escalation in global trade tensions as well as the Bank of England rate cut in early May. The impressive retail sales report, together with higher-than-expected inflation in April will raise expectations for the BoE to hold rates at its next meeting on June 18. There are no key US releases today but we'll hear from three FOMC members. There has been plenty of Fedspeak this week, with a message that the US tariffs will take a toll on the US economy, even with the temporary deal with China, and that the Fed favors a wait-and-see stance before further rate cuts. GBP/USD has broken above several resistance lines and is putting pressure in resistance at 1.3493. There is support at 1.3393 and 1.3367
by OANDA
Pound steady as UK inflation surgesThe British pound posted gains earlier but has failed to consolidate. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3395, up 0.03% on the day. The pound has gained 1.1% this week and earlier today rose as high as 1.3468, its highest level since Feb. 2022. UK inflation jumped to 3.5% y/y in April, up sharply from 2.6% in March and above the market estimate of 3.3%. This was the highest annual inflation rate since Jan. 2024 and was driven by higher prices for transport, housing and energy. Monthly, inflation soared to 1.2%, up from 0.3% and above the market estimate of 1.1%. The news wasn't much better from core CPI, which rose to 3.8% from 3.4% and was higher than the market estimate of 3.6%. This was the highest reading since April 2024. Monthly, the core rate jumped to 1.4%, up from 0.5% and above the market estimate of 1.2%. The rise in inflation can be partially attributed to the increase in the energy price cap and the Easter holidays, but is a disappointment for the government and for the Bank of England, as inflation had been trending lower. The BoE will be concerned by the rise in core inflation, which will complicate plans to further reduce rates. The BoE trimmed the cash rate by a quarter-point earlier this month by 0.25%, but rates are still higher than other major central banks, with the exception of the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve is taking a wait-and-see attitude before it lowers rates again, especially with the uncertainty swirling around US tariff policy. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said this week that even reduced tariffs would be "definitely economically significant" and said he favored one rate cut this year.
by OANDA
Canada's inflation eases, Canadian dollar edges lowerThe Canadian dollar continues to have a quiet week. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3920, down 0.21% on the day. Canada released the April inflation report, which indicated that headline and core inflation were moving in opposite directions. Headline CPI dropped sharply to 1.7% y/y, down from 2.3% but shy of the market estimate of 1.6%. This was the lowest annual inflation rate in seven months. The sharp drop was driven by the end of the consumer carbon tax, with gasoline prices dropping 18% lower compared to April 2024. Core inflation accelerated in April, with two key indicators rising to an average of 3.15%, compared to 2.85% in March. This was above the market estimate of 2.9%. The money markets have responded to the inflation data, lowering the probability of a rate cut at the June 4 meeting to 48%, down from 65% prior to the inflation release. The Bank of Canada has been aggressive in its easing cycle, trimming rates seven straight times from June 2024 until April, when it held rates. The cash rate is currently at 2.75% but the BoC is hesitant to lower in the midst of the uncertainty over the US trade tariffs, which have led to sharp swings in the stock markets. There are no US events on the calendar and the markets will be all ears as a host of FOMC members make public statements today. Investors will be looking for insights into the Fed's rate path. The Fed is widely expected to hold rates in June and may cut as little as twice in the second half of the year. That could change, depending on inflation, the US labor market and Trump's tariffs. USD/CAD is testing support at 1.3936. Below, there is support at 1.3911 There is resistance at 1.3952 and 1.3977
by OANDA
XAUUSD - Will Gold Reach $3,300?!Gold is trading above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 1-hour timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. I expect the path ahead for gold to be bullish, but a downward correction of gold will lead to the creation of buying positions from the bottom of the channel. Gold faced renewed selling pressure over the past week—an event that not only dragged down its price but also led many analysts and retail investors to temporarily abandon their bullish short-term outlooks. The return of investor appetite for riskier assets has momentarily weakened gold’s appeal as a safe haven. Meanwhile, the credit rating agency Moody’s has finally acted, downgrading the U.S. sovereign rating from Aaa to Aa1. This marks the first time that even one of the major agencies no longer sees the U.S. as worthy of the highest credit rating. The downgrade was driven by factors such as an annual budget deficit nearing $2 trillion, a debt burden exceeding GDP, and elevated interest rates that have significantly increased the government’s borrowing costs—conditions which, if persistent, could serve as catalysts for gold’s resurgence. Adrian Day, CEO of Adrian Day Asset Management, stated: “The downward trend continues. We expect prices to decline further in the coming weeks, especially with the potential restructuring of U.S. trade tariffs. That said, once this phase passes, it could set the stage for one of the best buying opportunities.” Adam Button, Chief Currency Strategist at Forexlive.com, offered a similar outlook, saying: “Current trading sentiment is clearly tilted toward the downside. The market is searching for a new floor, although it seems likely that support will remain above the key $3,000 psychological threshold.” Following a week full of economic data, the upcoming week’s calendar appears relatively light, with only a handful of reports likely to influence the markets. Early in the week, traders will face a lack of major catalysts, but focus will gradually shift toward Thursday’s releases: weekly jobless claims, the flash PMI from S&P Global, and existing home sales. Additionally, new home sales data on Friday will be one of the few key events of the week. Alongside these economic updates, the coming days will feature a wave of speeches from Federal Reserve policymakers. Speakers include Jefferson, Williams, Logan, Kashkari, Barkin, Bostic, Collins, Musalem, Kugler, Daly, and Hsu, culminating with a speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Sunday evening.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
NAS100 - Will the Stock Market Reach Its Previous High?!The index is trading above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. If the trend line is broken, I expect corrective moves, but if the index corrects towards the demand zone, we can look for further buying positions in Nasdaq with a risk-reward ratio. Maintaining this trend line will lead to a continuation of the Nasdaq upward trend. The strong rally in U.S. equities that had pushed the S&P 500 close to record highs for 2025 came to a halt on Friday, following the release of disappointing consumer sentiment data. A report from the University of Michigan revealed a drop in consumer confidence and a surge in inflation expectations to levels not seen in decades—factors that have amplified concerns about the economy’s outlook. Despite this, some analysts remain hopeful that robust corporate earnings and the temporary suspension of tariffs could provide needed support for the market. Meanwhile, rating agency Moody’s warned that U.S. federal debt is projected to climb to 134% of GDP by 2035, up from 98% in 2024. Moody’s noted that while the U.S. economy and financial system remain strong, the weakening of certain fiscal indicators has diminished the ability of these strengths to offset negative effects. According to their analysis, trade tariffs will not significantly impact long-term U.S. economic growth, and substantial changes in mandatory spending are unlikely in the near future. Although the U.S. credit rating has been downgraded, the country’s long-term domestic and foreign credit ceilings remain at AAA. However, Moody’s has revised the overall credit rating for the U.S. down from AAA to Aa1. One noteworthy detail is that since April 21, the index has seen only one negative trading day—May 9, which experienced only a slight decline. Falling Treasury yields have reduced some market risks, while Donald Trump’s trip to the Middle East has also helped ease political tensions at home. The market clearly reflects growing investor appetite for risk, though the possibility of a correction at these levels remains real. Looking ahead to this week, traders will closely monitor preliminary purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data for May on Thursday. They will also pay attention to speeches from several Federal Reserve officials to gauge whether the Fed remains focused on economic growth or has shifted more attention to inflation, especially in light of recent U.S.-China trade agreements. A rise in PMI figures may suggest that business sentiment has improved since tensions eased between the U.S. and China, but investors are also eager for clear guidance on the Fed’s next policy steps. Key speakers include John Williams (New York Fed), Raphael Bostic (Atlanta Fed), Lorie Logan (Dallas Fed), and Mary Daly (San Francisco Fed). If these officials continue to express concerns about elevated inflation risks, the U.S. dollar could continue to strengthen, as markets may price in fewer rate cuts ahead. As for the equity markets, their reaction remains uncertain. Recently, equities have risen even as expectations for rate cuts have diminished—primarily due to a reduced fear of recession following tariff adjustments. However, with recession fears now less pronounced and a growing narrative around sustained higher rates due to sticky inflation, Wall Street may pull back if Fed officials emphasize upside inflation risks. In related news, President Donald Trump harshly criticized Walmart’s pricing strategy, stating that the company should absorb the cost of tariffs rather than passing them onto consumers. In a public statement, Trump pointed out that Walmart made billions in profit last year and argued that American shoppers should not bear the burden of higher prices caused by trade tariffs. Trump also implicated China in the issue, stating that either Walmart or China should take responsibility for these added costs. He warned that both he and consumers are closely watching how Walmart handles the situation.
CAPITALCOM:US100
by Ali_PSND
EUR/USD is Loading a Breakout?!EUR/USD has posted an interesting bullish reaction following a controlled descent within a descending channel. After a brief break below a long-term ascending trendline, price established support within a clear demand zone between 1.1130 and 1.1170, closing the daily candle back above the key area. This structure suggests a possible phase of accumulation, especially given the presence of a strong lower wick and the defense of the highlighted yellow zone. Still, the pair remains within the descending channel, and the squeeze between the trendline and resistance at 1.1280 could become a decision zone. A daily close above 1.1280 would support bullish continuation and open the way to 1.1450. 🧠 Institutional Positioning (COT): Large speculators continue to favor the long side on the euro, with a noticeable increase in net long exposure. This confirms the accumulation narrative visible on the chart. Meanwhile, the USD shows a consistent decline in bullish positioning, adding weight to the case for a softer dollar — supportive of a potential EUR breakout. 📊 Retail Sentiment: Retail traders are slightly skewed to the short side (52% short), which is not extreme but does act as a contrarian input favoring bullish continuation — especially if the price breaks above dynamic resistance. 📅 Seasonality (May): Historically, May tends to be a weak-to-neutral month for EUR/USD over the 10–20Y horizon. However, recent years (last 2Y) show a bullish deviation from that trend, supporting the idea that any dips could offer opportunity rather than signal trend reversals. 🧭 Summary 📈 Directional Bias: Moderately Bullish ❌ Invalidation: Daily close below 1.1130 🎯 Target Levels: • Key Resistance: 1.1280 • Extension Zone: 1.1450 🧠 Key Takeaway: EUR/USD is showing early signs of bullish reversal within a still-constrained technical structure. Demand rejection, institutional long bias, and retail short pressure all align for a potential continuation higher. However, a confirmed breakout above 1.1280 is crucial to validate the scenario.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
7
Gold Just Grabbed Liquidity Below a Key LowGold reacted sharply at a major structural level last week, sweeping liquidity below the previous weekly swing low. That move was immediately followed by a strong bullish rejection candle with a deep lower wick — signaling aggressive buyer absorption. The price also respected a long-term ascending trendline, which has acted as dynamic support since early March. Two demand zones are clearly identified on the chart (based on HTF imbalances and previous accumulation ranges), and price tapped the upper zone near 3,160 before bouncing. The bullish structure remains intact unless price closes below 3,080 on the weekly. Until then, the trendline and recent liquidity grab favor further upside continuation. 📉 COT Data Insight Gold Non-Commercials: Net long remains strong (238k long vs 76k short) New long contracts: +746 | Shorts: +2,034 However, a large drop in spread positions (-12,424) signals a tactical unwind in hedge fund exposure USD Index (DXY) Non-Commercials: Net long positions down significantly (-5,712) Softening dollar bias adds tailwind for gold in the short term 🧠 COT Takeaway Speculative interest continues to favor Gold, while USD positioning weakens — supporting the idea of a technical bounce and potential bullish continuation. 🧮 Retail Sentiment (Contrarian View) Retail traders are currently 54% short on XAU/USD — classic contrarian signal suggesting the path of least resistance remains to the upside. 📆 Seasonal Outlook (May Performance) Historically, May tends to be a neutral-to-weak month for gold based on 10- to 15-year data. However, in the last 2 years, May has delivered clear bullish seasonality, which reinforces the case for upward momentum after pullbacks. ✅ Summary 🔸 Directional Bias: Moderately Bullish 🔸 Invalid if: Weekly close < 3,080 🎯 First Target: 3,280 – 3,320 🎯 Extended Target: 3,440 resistance zone 📌 Final Thoughts The technical reaction from demand, supportive COT structure, soft USD positioning, and contrarian sentiment all point toward potential continuation higher. As long as Gold holds above the 3,080 zone, the bulls remain in control.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by EdgeTradingJourney
16
Bitcoin MA 50 crosses 100If history repeats, this could be even bigger gains soon ahead. The blue MA 50 just crossed the orange MA 100 which happened in Oct '24 as well as Oct '23 -- this time happening so soon could defy historical pattern, but with a possible Fed interest rate cut in the works, this could be huge. After the recent Fed announcement that there would be no interest rate cuts at this time, the reason given was that the market was holding steady, though a recession was not entirely ruled out. If a recession starts to rear its ugly head before June 17th Fed meeting, they may change their outlook and enact interest rate cuts to ensure the economy can continue unscathed. Since Trump has walked back tariffs on China and is still working with the rest of the world to lower tariffs, the interest rates may not be cut in June. What does this mean for Bitcoin? A recession is still on the horizon, even without rate cuts and with lowered tariffs. The damage has already been done by tariffs, enough so that reports of impending empty shelves soon to hit stores this month is still a concern. People flock to other investment strategies when the market is so uncertain, hence Gold and Bitcoin getting their boosts recently. It's my opinion that Bitcoin will continue to grow in price as investors scramble to keep their portfolios on an uptrend. The MA 50 and MA 100 crossing is a great signal and gives me confidence in a continuing uptrend.
Long
by neuromancer