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AUD/USD climbs on Aussie job data, Fed rate cutThe Australian dollar has posted sharp gains on Thursday. AUD/USD rose as much as 1% before paring most of those gains. In the North American session, the Australian dollar is trading at 0.6792, up 0.41% on the day. Australia created 47.5 thousand jobs in August, close to the revised 48.9 thousand in July and crushing the market estimate of 25 thousand. The gains were all part-time positions as full-time jobs actually declined by 3.1 thousand. Still, investors gave a thumbs-up and the Australian dollar is up sharply today. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, in line with market expectations. The Reserve Bank of Australia remains an outlier among the major central banks as it is yet to lower rates. The RBA has maintained rates at 4.35% since November but its “higher for longer” stance has not brought down inflation as much as expected. Inflation has dropped to 3.5% but that is still higher than the inflation target range of between 2 and 3 percent. The RBA meets next Wednesday, a day before the August inflation report and is expected to maintain rates. In one of the most anticipated rate meetings in recent memory, the Federal Reserve surprised the markets with an oversize cut of 50 basis points. The markets were unsure right up to decision time whether the Fed would go with a modest 25 bps cut or the large 50 bps cut. In the end, the Fed opted for the deeper cut in a near-unanimous decision (11 of 12 members voted in favor). The message from the Fed was that it is confident that inflation will remain sustainably near the 2% target and that the weak labor market was in need of strong relief. In his press conference, Fed Chair Powell tried to assure the markets that the US economy was in good shape and that today’s move was not a signal that further 50 bps cuts were on the way. AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6798. Above, there is resistance at 0.6862 0.6751 and 0.6687 are the next support levels
by OANDA
Fed Kicks Off Rate-Cutting Cycle. Why the Muted Market Reaction?Central bank bros met traders’ loftiest expectations with a half-point cut to interest rates on Wednesday. But is that too good to be true and maybe even a signal of some problems with the US economy and looming fears over at the Fed? Trading today isn’t the same as trading yesterday. Even though prices don’t really confirm it — there wasn’t a super-duper rally in stocks. Maybe gold XAU/USD flickered a bit, but it was mostly froth . And here we are — the first day of trading in an environment with lower interest rates. Jay Powell, head of the Federal Reserve, announced on Wednesday the first trim to borrowing costs in four years. The move ushers in a new normal where US interest rates USINTR are projected to continue moving lower from their 23-year high of 5.5%. The easing cycle kicked off with a jumbo-sized 50 bps (basis points) slash. Surprisingly, the Fed went for the juicier, bolder and more aggressive option, leapfrogging the less interesting and exciting cut of 25 bps. First reactions across the board showed investors were hyped to get what they wanted — the broad-based S&P 500 hit an intraday record . Shortly after, however, stocks across the board pulled back and markets became anxious over the outlook as the realization kicked in. If the economy is doing fine, why go big on cuts from the get-go? What’s more, central bankers are keen to ax interest rates by another half point in 2024, ultimately wrapping up the year with the benchmark rate sitting at 4.25% to 4.5%. Christmas may come early — the Fed meets twice more this year, on November 7 and December 18. Better Safe Than Sorry? A super-sized half-point cut could actually be a pre-emptive measure to alleviate a strained economy. But if inflation is now largely in the rearview mirror , what could the problem be? The other mandate. The Fed has a dual mandate of keeping prices in check (inflation) and upholding a stable labor market (jobs). “We will do everything we can to support a strong labor market as we make further progress towards price stability,” Jay Powell said at the annual Jackson Hole gathering last month. And indeed, America’s jobs have seen a pronounced slowdown over the past few months. In July, markets added just 89,000 jobs (revised from an initial estimation of 114,000 ). In August, hiring had picked up modestly to 142,000 , but below expectations for 164,000. Pros and Cons of Bumper Cut Essentially, this big-boy cut of 50 bps is a double-edged sword. It cuts into borrowing costs, making money more affordable, potentially stimulating businesses to add more jobs and grow their gig. And it also prompts consumers to take on debt and get that house. But on the flip side, a cut of that magnitude risks stirring up price pressures again. To get to full employment, the Fed faces the challenge of knocked inflation waking up from its slumber. The size of the cut at this particular time doesn’t mean anything without the markets’ reaction to it. Apparently, investors were unimpressed and shrugged it off as no big deal. Looking ahead, however, the stakes are high because stocks are at all-time highs. The S&P 500 touched a record, Big Tech is leading the charge into artificial intelligence and investors can’t own enough of the highflyers Nvidia NVDA , Meta META , Apple AAPL , etc. The actual picture will become clear once markets figure out what the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle means and what to do about it.
SP:SPX
by TradingView
25
Sui's fundamental growth is seeing price surgeThe Sui chain is trying to enter BIG4 category Since October last year its been clear that the BIG3 are Eth, Sol and BSC. BSC has been losing market share since 2021 but is still dominant to second tier chains. Out of the second tier chains Sui has been growing. Now competitive with only Avax.. Sui is trying to make its way into becoming apart of the BIG4 if not replace BSC in the BIG3. Sui has seen a price surge off the back of this As Sui grows and expands into things like USDC integration.. the price will likely align. We are enter a stage of value investing within crypto which shows the development within the space. Sui is proving itself as one to keep an eye on in that regard.
Long
by SoftQuant
GBPUSD: After the FED, Awaiting the BOE and BOJ!The GBP/USD pair found support near the 1.3150 area on Thursday, temporarily halting the correction from the recent high of 1.3300, the highest level since March 2022. The 4-hour RSI remains close to 70, suggesting that the pair could enter overbought territory in the short term if it continues to rise. The bullish sentiment for GBP/USD has been supported by expectations of an aggressive rate cut from the Fed, which has weakened the US Dollar. This week, markets are awaiting the rate decisions from the Bank of England (BoE) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ). In the short term, GBP/USD could consolidate above 1.3200 before potentially resuming its rise toward 1.3260 and 1.3300. On the downside, a break below 1.3150 would open the door for a drop towards 1.3100, especially if US economic data supports a rebound in the dollar.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
3
Fed Rate: How to Trade Gold Amidst Market Uncertainty? The excitement is building as the Federal Reserve is about to announce its rate decision—whether it's a 25 or 50 basis point cut. Will gold reach new highs or begin a downward trend? Let’s wait and see. From a personal perspective, I'm not particularly concerned about the impact on trading. Whether the market moves up or down, it will eventually return to the current price levels. Especially after a surge, there’s no need to worry too much. For those trading today, do not set stop losses on short positions. If gold rises, simply add to your position or hedge by opening long trades. The 2600 level is a critical resistance point, and even if it breaks through due to the announcement, it won’t hold for long without a retracement. At that point, simply close your long positions and add more short positions. This trading strategy should be helpful for those looking to navigate the volatility. Feel free to ask any questions or leave comments!
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by MichaeliaDefoe
NZ dollar eyes Fed meet, New Zealand GDPThe New Zealand dollar has posted gains on Wednesday. NZD/USD is trading at 0.6211 at the time of writing, up 0.44% on the day. Federal Reserve meetings are traditionally predictable affairs and don’t move the needle of the financial markets. Fed decision makers signal their intentions ahead of time in order to minimize market volatility. Today’s decision is up in the air and it remains unclear what the Fed is going to deliver – will it be a modest 25-basis point cut or a jumbo 50-bps slash? Market pricing of today’s cut has been swinging wildly, which could result in volatility after the decision. The Fed has maintained a stance of ‘higher for longer’ for over a year and has brought down inflation close to the 2% target. The expectation not long ago was that the Fed would kick off the new rate-tightening cycle with a traditional 25-bps cut. What has complicated matters is the recent deterioration in the US labor market. Job growth has fallen sharply and spooked the markets, with fears that the US economy could fall into a recession. The darkening employment picture has boosted the likelihood of a 50-bps cut, but such a deep cut could send a signal that the economy is in deep trouble and unnerve investors. The markets will be keeping a close eye on the Fed’s ‘dot plot’, which will signal the expected rate path over the next few years as well as updated economic forecasts. The Fed is expected to be aggressive in its rate cuts, now that inflation is largely beaten and the employment picture has deteriorated. Overshadowed by the dramatic Fed meeting, New Zealand will release second-quarter GDP early on Thursday. The markets are bracing for a contraction in growth. In the first quarter, the economy showed slight growth of 0.2% q/q and 0.3% y/y. This is expected to fall to -0.4% q/q and -0.5% y/y. NZD/USD has pushed above resistance at 0.6199. Above, there is resistance at 0.6240 There is support at 0.6153 and 0.6112
by OANDA
GOLD / Poised for Volatility as Fed Rate Decision LoomsGold Technical Analysis – 18th September 2024 Gold Edges Higher Ahead of Fed Rate Cut Decision Gold prices remain steady, hovering near record highs, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and growing speculation of a 50 basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve. To sustain the bullish trend, the price needs to break above the 2,580 level, potentially driving it higher to 2,599. However, there is a likelihood of a pullback before the Fed's rate decision, followed by a bullish surge once the rate cut is confirmed. If the Fed implements a 50 basis-point cut, gold is poised to test 2,599 and possibly extend gains towards 2,617 and beyond. Conversely, any deviation from this scenario could result in heightened market volatility in both directions, especially during the FOMC meeting. If Jerome Powell emphasizes concerns about a slowing economy, it could trigger a significant market movement, potentially driving Gold prices lower. Key Levels: - Pivot Point: 2580 - Resistance: 2587, 2599, 2617 - Support: 2562, 2553, 2528 Trend: - Bullish: Above 2579 - Bearish: Below 2570
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SroshMayi
FOMC 25bps vs 50bps??The day has arrived!! Today is predicted to be the first rate cut by the FED since the COVID crash of March 2020! Two years after that in March 2022 the FED begun rate hikes in an attempt to stop the rising inflation. Now that inflation is close to the FEDs target of 2% it's time to stimulate the economy with cheaper borrowing. The big question is, 25bps or 50bps? Last week we saw the ECB (European central bank) cut their interest rates by 60bps from 4.25% to 3.65%, although this news has somewhat gone unnoticed, I'm not so sure the FED would have ignored it. If Europe has considerably cheaper borrowing rates than the US it could signal more growth to come from Europe and that would not be ideal for the US. Now this doesn't necessarily mean that Europe will be favoured by investors for long as this is only the beginning of rate cuts, Europe could taper off earlier or US could be more aggressive later on, we don't know for sure but I don't think America would want to fall behind. Prediction markets have shown the 50bps cut is growing in probability. Now at 61% chance for 50bps according to FED funds futures (At time of writing). 25bps is definitely priced in, but I don't think 50bps is priced in. This should see risk markets get a boost. In terms of TA, the 4H BTC chart looks ready to breakout, back above the 200EMA and 4H support. Flip the 4H resistance and $65,000 is the target. Be carful today with leverage as volatility will be crazy, plenty of whipsawing and generally the first move direction is wrong. Stay safe out there.
by ProR35
2
S&P 500 Sets Record Ahead of Fed DecisionS&P 500 Sets Record Ahead of Fed Decision As shown by the S&P 500 index chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen), yesterday's trading saw the index hit a new intraday high of 5,678.9, surpassing the previous record of 5,677.5 set on 16 July. However, the bulls were unable to maintain this historic peak, which is a negative sign, suggesting the possibility of a bear trap scenario. Nevertheless, this first new record in two months is significant as it shows the market's recovery from the panic-driven drop on 5 August, which was linked to fears of a potential recession. Yesterday’s rise was boosted by the US Commerce Department's August retail sales report, which exceeded expectations. As Forbes noted, this supports the view that the US is not on the brink of a recession. The market now heads into the final stretch before the highly anticipated Federal Reserve decision, expected today at 21:00 GMT+3, which will likely see the first interest rate cut in 4.5 years. According to Forex Factory, analysts predict a rate cut to 5.25% from the current 5.50%. However, surprises are possible, with a 0.5% cut also on the table. Only a small minority seems to expect the rate to remain unchanged. Technical analysis of the S&P 500 index chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) shows that the market is in an uptrend, marked by a blue channel. The index is trading near the median of this channel, suggesting a balance of supply and demand. Such conditions increase the likelihood of a flat market, but this seems unlikely with the Fed potentially starting a rate-cutting cycle. Prepare for volatility today: the decision will be announced at 21:00 GMT+3, followed by Fed Chair Powell's press conference at 21:30 GMT+3. If a bearish move occurs, support for the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) may come at the 5,400 level. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:SPXM
by FXOpen
2
Gold Analysis: Waiting for the Fed!Gold prices attracted buying after a brief overnight corrective drop, finding support due to expectations of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed. This limits the attempted recovery of the US Dollar (USD) and supports the precious metal, although buyers seem reluctant to place aggressive bets ahead of key central bank events. Immediate resistance is at the all-time high of $2,590, with a test of the psychological level of $2,600 if surpassed. Acceptance above this level could open the door to the next target of $2,650. On the other hand, if the Fed disappoints market expectations for a more accommodative stance, gold could face a fresh wave of selling. In that case, the price could drop towards $2,532 and $2,500. The Fed's decision on Wednesday represents a crucial point for the future direction of gold. Markets currently estimate a 65% probability of a 50 basis point rate cut, and the weakness of the US Dollar could continue to provide fundamental support for gold. However, if the Fed opts for a more moderate 25 basis point cut, the dollar could see an immediate upward reaction. More important than the decision itself will be the Fed’s communication, including Jerome Powell's words and the Dot Plot, which will provide guidance on future policy.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
USD/JPY rebounds after US retail sales beats estimateThe Japanese yen is down sharply on Tuesday. USD/JPY is up 0.73% today, trading at 141.64 in the North American session at the time of writing. On Monday, the yen pushed below 140 per dollar for the first time since July 2023. The yen has looked razor sharp, gaining 2.9% in the month of September alone. The yen has surged a massive 15% in the third quarter, the best-performing G-10 currency. The Federal Reserve is virtually certain to raise interest rates by at least 25 basis points on Wednesday. The Bank of Japan, which meets on Friday, is expected to keep rates on hold. The BoJ has been an outlier among the major central banks and is expected to continue tightening, which has boosted the yen. The BoJ has signaled that further rate hikes are coming and this could occur as soon as December. In the US, today’s retail sales release was the final key event ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting. Retail sales softened in August but the decline wasn’t as sharp as expected. Monthly, retail sales posted a small gain of 0.1% in August, down from a revised 1.1% in July but still better than the market estimate of -0.2%. On an annualized basis, retail sales eased to 2.1%, down from 2.9% in July and just below the forecast of 2.2%. The retail sales release is not expected to impact the Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday. The rate cut odds for a half-point cut stand at 67% according to the CME’s FedWatch tool, unchanged by the retail sales release. USD/JPY pushed above 141.17 earlier and is testing resistance at 141.72 There is support at 140.37 and 139.82
by OANDA
EURUSD extends uptrend due to dollar weakness EURUSD advanced to the 1.1140 level after breaching the descending channel’s upper bound as the dollar’s weakness intensified. EMA21 is widening the gap after golden-crossing EMA78, indicating an apparent bullish signal. If EURUSD holds above EMA21, the price could gain upward momentum toward the 1.1200 resistance. Conversely, if EURUSD fails to keep the 1.1100 support, where EMA21 intersects, the price could fall further to 1.1050.
by inkicho_exness
EUR/USD Rally: Weak Fed, Cautious ECBThe EUR/USD pair broke above the 1.1100 level due to weakness in the US dollar, driven by expectations of a rate cut by the Fed. The Dollar Index (DXY) is declining, while US and German yields have dropped. The ECB, on the other hand, has shown caution regarding future rate cuts, supporting the euro. Key resistance levels for EUR/USD are 1.1137, 1.1155, 1.1201, and 1.1275. Support lies at 1.1071, with further levels at 1.1030 and 1.1001. The RSI is near 67, suggesting a potential overbought area, but the bullish trend remains intact as long as the price stays above the 200-day moving average. If the dollar continues to weaken, EUR/USD could target 1.1155 and beyond. Conversely, a break below 1.1071 could indicate a correction toward 1.1030 and 1.1001.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Euro jumps to 10-day highThe euro has posted strong gains on Monday. EUR/USD is trading at 1.1126 in the North American session at the time of writing, up 0.49% today. The euro is at its highest level since Sept. 6. It’s a quiet day on the data calendar, with no tier-1 events. In the US, the Empire State Manufacturing index rebounded to 11.5 in September, much higher than the August reading of -4.7 and the market estimate of -3.9. This was a shocker as the manufacturer index had contracted nine straight times before today’s reading. Tuesday will be busier, with German ZEW economic sentiment index and US retail sales. German ZEW economic sentiment plunged to 19.2 in August, down from 41.8 in July. The market estimate for September stands at 17.1. US retail sales are expected to fall to 2.2% y/y in August, down from 2.7% in July. This week’s key event is the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday, with a 25 basis-point cut practically guaranteed. Will the Fed opt for an oversize 50-bps cut or play it safe with a 25-bps move? The rate cut odds continue to swing wildly. After last week’s producer price index reading, the odds of a 50-bps point cut soared to 41%, up from just 13% before the release, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool. That has increased to 59% today. The uncertainty over what the Fed will do could last right up to the wire. The Fed is in a quandary as it needs to balance the risk of inflation moving higher against the recent weakness in the labor market. A modest 25-bps cut may not be sufficient to improve the employment picture, while a 50 bps cut might send a message that the Fed believes the economy is in deep trouble. EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.118. Above, there is resistance at 1.1160 There is support at 1.1060 and 1.1018
by OANDA