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EUR/USD eases as inflation ticks lowerThe euro is slightly lower on Tuesday. EUR/USD is trading at 1.0712 in the European session, down 0.24% on the day at the time of writing. The euro hit a two-week high on Monday, rising to 1.0776, but couldn’t consolidate and ended the day almost unchanged. The annual inflation rate in the eurozone dropped to 2.5% in June, compared to 2.6% a month earlier and in line with market expectations. The slight decline was driven a slower pace of price rises for food and energy. On a monthly level, CPI was unchanged at 0.2%, matching the forecast. Core CPI was unchanged at 2.9% y/y, a bit higher than the market estimate of 2.8% y/y. The downward move in inflation is good news and follows a decline in June inflation in Germany, France and Spain. Services inflation in the eurozone, however, climbed 4.1% y/y in June, more than twice the ECB’s target of 2% . The inflation report won’t prod the European Central Bank to cut again in July, after an initial quarter-point cut earlier this month. What can we expect from the ECB? That isn’t clear, as Governing Council members are divided. Governing Council member Madis Muller said today that the ECB must be patient with further rate cuts and warned against underestimating price stickiness. Another member, Pierre Wunsch said that another cut was an easy decision but there was no urgency. We’ll hear from ECB President Lagarde at the ECB forum in Sintra later today and the euro could react if Lagarde weighs in on the rate path issue. Federal Reserve Chair Powell will also speak at the ECB forum later today and investors will be looking for clues about rate cut plans. Expectations of a September rate cut have been steady over the past week at around 60%, according to the CME’s FedWatch. EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.0752. Above, there is resistance at 1.0790 1.0709 and 1.0671 are the next support lines
by OANDA
The US Election and Possible Fed Rate DetourCBOT: Micro 2-Year Yield ( CBOT_MINI:2YY1! ), Micro 10-Year Yield ( CBOT_MINI:10Y1! ) Last Thursday night, I watched the first Biden-Trump presidential debate live on TV, along with tens of millions of likely voters of the 2024 US presidential election. Who won the debate? According to the exit poll conducted by 538/Ipsos: • 60.1% of the likely voters being polled said former President Trump performed best; • Only 20.8% said President Biden performed best at the debate. However, the debate may not change the minds of many voters. • Biden gained support from voters who would likely vote for him, from 46.7% before the debate, to 48.2% after that; • Trump also gained support modestly, from 43.5% to 43.9%; • Robert Kennedy, Jr., an independent presidential candidate who did not participate in the debate, saw his support increase from 17.3% to 18.4%. What mattered most to voters? • Inflation or increasing costs is the No. 1 issue, called out by 50% of the likely voters; • Immigration came in 2nd at 37%, while Political polarization is the 3rd at 25%. The second and final presidential debate is scheduled on September 10th. Ahead of this, the Republican National Convention will be held on July 15th-18th. Donald Trump is likely to be nominated as the Republican candidate for the US presidential election. The Democratic National Convention will be held on August 19th-22nd. After his poor performance in the first presidential debate, we are uncertain if President Biden will be nominated, or replaced by an alternative candidate. On TradingView, our focus is always on trading and investing. However, geopolitics plays a crucial role in shaping global markets, influencing economic growth, investment flows, and asset prices. Understanding the complex interplay between political events and market dynamics is essential for investors seeking to navigate the ever-changing landscape. That being said, I would like to outline these generic scenarios: • If President Biden is re-elected for a 2nd term, he would likely maintain similar political and industry policies which we have been seeing in his first term; • If Former President Trump returns to the White House, we would likely see huge reversal in the policies enacted by the current Administration. What Donald Trump did in his first term will be a good indicator for what lies ahead. Looking across asset classes, I think the interest rate regime will be impacted the most in a Trump-winning scenario. The US Interest Rate Regime In the 21st century, we have four US presidents so far: George W. Bush (2001-2008), Barack Obama (2009-2016), Donald Trump (2017-2020) and Joe Biden (2021-2024). The US Federal Reserve also has four Chairmen: Alan Greenspan (1987-2005), Ben Bernanke (2006-2013), Janet Yellen (2014-2017) and Jerome Powell (2018-2026). I observe that Fed Funds Rate exhibited unique pattern under each president. Let’s look at President George W. Bush first: • The younger President Bush came into the White House when the Internet bubble just busted, and the Enron and WorldCom scandals shook the stock markets. “9/11” occurred less than 8 months into his presidency. • Fed Chair Alan Greenspan executed steep rate cuts to rescue the economy in crisis, pushing the Fed Fund rate down to 1% from 6.5%. • By 2004, the economy has recovered and became overheated. To combat inflation, Chairman Greenspan hiked interest rate all the way to 5.25%. • High interest rates busted the subprime housing market, triggering the Great Recession of 2008. New Fed Chair Ben Bernanke steered the country through the financial crisis, and lowered interest rates to 0-25 basis points. The Obama Administration (2009-2016): • President Obama inherited the Zero Rate environment, and throughout most of his 8-year presidency, interest rates largely stayed at the ultra-low levels. • In the 3rd year of her Fed Chair tenure, Janet Yellen began raising interest rates, from 0-25 bps to 1.25% by the end of her four-year term. The Trump Administration (2017-2020): • In November 2017, President Trump nominated Jerome Powell as new Fed Chair. • Chairman Powell continued the rate hike and raised the Fed Funds rate to 2.25%. • President Trump openly criticized his Fed Chair and intervened central bank policy. • Under great pressure, the Fed lowered rates in 2019. With the pandemic sending the economy into a free fall, Fed Funds rate was back to 0-25 bps by April 2020. The Biden Administration (2021-2024): • During the pandemic, a global supply chain bottleneck pushed US inflation to a 40-year-high at 9.1% by July 2022. • Albeit initially assessing the inflation as transitory, the Fed launched a series of rate increases beginning March 2022, pushing the Zero Rate to 5.25-5.50% by 2023. • While the US CPI came down to about the 3-3.5% range, the Fed was hesitant to lower rates too early. It had maintained the current rate in the last seven FOMC meetings. As we observed from the above, Donald Trump strongly believes that high interest rates would hurt the economy. He would go out of his way and convince the Fed to lower rates. What he considered “too high” was 2.25% in 2018. The Fed Funds rate is now more than doubled at 5.25-5.50%. In my opinion, in a Trump-winning scenario, he would call for the Fed to lower rates as soon as he returns to the White House. The Fed would cave in again, and quicken its rate cut schedule. Trading with CBOT Micro Yield Futures For someone who shares my view of aggressive rate-cut schedule under a new Trump Administration, he could express it by trading with CBOT Micro Yield Futures. Unlike bond futures, Micro Yield contracts quote the respective interest rates directly. A lower interest rate means lower futures prices. Last Friday, the August contract of Micro 2Y Yield futures (2YYQ4) were settled at 4.628%. Each contract has a notional value of 1,000 index points, or $4,628 at the current price. To buy (long) or sell (short) 1 contract, a trader needs to deposit an initial margin of $330. The August Micro 10Y Yield (10YQ4) settled at 4.318%. Notional value is 1,000 index points or $4,318. Initial margin is $320. In my opinion, rate cuts are coming, but the timing is uncertain. At what point the presidential pressure will cause rate cuts to speed up is also uncertain. To counter the uncertainty, a trader could use a Futures Rollover strategy. This is to maintain a Short position on Micro Yield Futures over time. When an existing contract is about to expire, we could close the position by buying the same contract, with the long order offsetting the short position. Meanwhile, the trader could enter a Short position with the newly listed contract. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT:ZQ1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
4
All eyes on the PCE todayWe are waiting to see what's going to happen after the release of the Fed's preferred inflation metric, the PCE. EASYMARKETS:EURUSD could one of those exciting pairs to watch today, but wait for the number to come out first. Disclaimer: easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
by easyMarkets
AUD/USD Upside Bias Supported by Hot AU InflationAustralian inflation accelerated 4% y/y in May, according to Wednesday’s data, marking the fastest pace in six months. The Reserve Bank of Australia was already worried around price pressures and had once again discussed raising rates during this month’s hold, while keeping the door open to further tightening. Yesterday’s hot CPI report likely aggravated these concerns and strengthens the case for a rate hike, while diminishing chances for a shift to a less restrictive chance this year. AUD/USD erased its gains yesterday after the initial jump, but remains constructive and the monetary policy differential supports further upside. The US Fed is reluctant to pivot, but still sees a rate cut this year, while markets are more aggressive and price in two moves. The technicals are also favorable, since the Aussie has defended the 38.2% Fibonacci of the last leg up and trades above the EMA200 (black line). This provide a solid basis for higher highs (0.6714) that would bring the 2024 peak in the spotlight (0.6839), although bulls don’t inspire yet confidence for challenging it. On the other hand, the bar is high for further tightening by the RBA, while the weak Australian economy creates pressure for an easier monetary stance. The Fed meanwhile expects just one cut this year, due to the disinflation slowdown, which supports the greenback. As such, the there is scope for renewed pressure towards the pivotal 38.2% Fibonacci and the daily Ichimoku Cloud, but sustained weakness below it is not easy given the favorable monetary policy differential. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Long
by FXCM
EUR/USD - Forecasted Potential Setup for the Next Few DaysCurrently, the price is forming a descending triangle pattern. I expect it to take liquidity at the 1.07100 level before making another higher low. My focus is on the 1.07350 level as a potential entry point for short positions. Given that the price is down across all timeframes, I am not considering long positions at this moment. If the price breaks the daily highs, this setup will become invalid, and I will then look for long opportunities on a pullback. However, for now, my strategy is exclusively oriented towards shorts. Confluences: Forecast for negative DXY news on 27/06/2024, which is expected to cause a pullback. Anticipation of positive results in Friday's news, potentially causing a breakout in this pair and a test of the weekly highs for DXY. Like and comment if you agree with my setup idea.
Short
by Ryan-L
1
USDCHF Tests Critical Resistance on Dovish SNBHaving pivoted away from its tightening cycle in March, the Swiss National Bank delivered the second straight rate cut last week, making it a frontrunner in the shift to monetary easing. Officials also lowered their inflation forecasts, creating scope for more moves ahead. Its US counterpart on the other hand, is reluctant to pivot due to stubborn inflation and Fed officials see just one cut this year. This monetary policy divergence is beneficial for USD/CHF, which surges after the SNB back-to-back rate cut. It now tries to take out a pivotal resistance cluster, comprising of the EMA200 (black line), the 38.2% Fibonacci of the last decline and the daily Ichimoku Cloud. Successful effort will give control back to the bulls and allow them to look towards the 2024 peak (0.9225-46), but this may prove elusive in the near term. On the other hand, with two rate cuts already under their belt, Swiss policymakers may become less bold. Furthermore, the Fed may have adopted a higher for longer stance, but still sees less restrictive stance ahead and markets are more optimistic, pricing in two rate cuts within the year. Overbought conditions indicated by the RSI and the aforementioned critical resistance confluence, can put pressure on USD/CHF. So a pullback that would challenge 0.8825 would not be surprising, but deeper losses towards and beyond 0.8730 are not compatible with the monetary policy dynamics. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Long
by FXCM
USDJPY: Bullish Outlook USD/JPY Analysis 1. Recent Performance Current Trend: USD/JPY trades around 159.70 on Monday, maintaining a bullish bias. The pair is testing the upper boundary of an ascending channel pattern on the daily chart. Japanese Yen Stability: The Japanese Yen (JPY) holds its ground, likely due to verbal intervention by Japanese authorities. Masato Kanda, Japan's top currency diplomat, stated his readiness to intervene around the clock if necessary to prevent excessive movements in the forex market. 2. Technical Analysis Bullish Indicators: The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above the 50 level, indicating upward momentum. Surpassing the upper threshold of the ascending channel pattern will reinforce the bullish sentiment, potentially pushing the pair toward 160.32, a major resistance level last seen in April, marking the highest level in over thirty years. Support Levels: Immediate support is at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 158.42. A breach below this level could increase downward pressure on USD/JPY, targeting the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 155.60. Further support is at the throwback level of 152.80, which could be tested if the lower boundary is broken. 3. Fundamental Context US Dollar Dynamics: The US Dollar Index (DXY) has edged lower due to a decline in yields on US Treasury bonds. However, the downside for the USD may be limited as higher-than-expected US PMI data has delayed expectations for the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2024. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a Fed rate cut in September is now priced at 65.9%, down from 70.2% a week earlier. Yield Differentials: Despite lower US Treasury yields, USD/JPY remains near 160, driven by the large yield differentials. Value investors are deterred by carry traders, suggesting that significant rate cuts by the Fed might be necessary to change this dynamic. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) faces a prolonged period of economic challenges, potentially extending through the summer and autumn. 4. Market Sentiment Verbal Intervention: The Japanese authorities, particularly Masato Kanda, have emphasized their readiness to intervene to prevent excessive volatility in the forex market. This stance provides some support to the JPY. Fed Rate Cut Speculation: Speculation around the timing of the Fed's interest rate cuts has a significant impact on USD/JPY. Delays in rate cuts support the USD, contributing to the pair's current bullish momentum. Conclusion USD/JPY is trading around 159.70 with a bullish outlook, reinforced by technical indicators and the current yield differential environment. Immediate resistance is at 160.32, while support is found at 158.42 and lower at 155.60. The pair's performance is influenced by verbal interventions from Japanese authorities and ongoing speculation regarding the Fed's interest rate policy. Market participants will continue to monitor these factors for further direction.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
GBP/USD: Bearish OutlookGBP/USD Analysis 1. Recent Performance Current Trend: GBP/USD trades in positive territory above 1.2650 in the second half of Monday. Following a strong performance due to upbeat PMI data on Friday, the US Dollar has weakened amid a positive shift in risk sentiment, allowing GBP/USD to extend its rebound. Previous Movements: GBP/USD fell below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.2640 on Friday but closed the week above this level, indicating sellers' hesitancy. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart has recovered toward 50. 2. Technical Analysis Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance is at 1.2700 (200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart). Additional resistance is found at 1.2720-1.2730 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the latest uptrend, 100-period SMA) and 1.2800 (psychological level, static level). Support Levels: If GBP/USD falls below 1.2640 and uses it as resistance, the next bearish targets are 1.2600 (psychological level, static level) and 1.2580 (Fibonacci 50% retracement). Market Indicators: Following Thursday's sharp decline, GBP/USD touched its weakest level since mid-May near 1.2620 on Friday. Despite ending the week in negative territory, GBP/USD stages a correction and trades above 1.2650 on Monday. 3. Fundamental Context US Dollar Dynamics: The USD gained strength heading into the weekend after the preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI for June showed robust expansion in the US private sector. Early Monday, the USD stays under modest bearish pressure amid an improving risk mood, helping GBP/USD hold its ground. Upcoming Data: The US economic docket will feature the Chicago Fed National Activity Index and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index. These are unlikely to trigger significant market reactions, with investors likely remaining focused on risk perception. Market Sentiment: Mixed actions in Wall Street, with Dow Futures up 0.3% and Nasdaq Futures down 0.1%, could make it difficult for GBP/USD to continue stretching higher. 4. Pound Sterling Performance Current Position: The Pound Sterling gains ground against the US Dollar, trading around 1.2650 in early New York session on Monday, rebounding from last week’s sharp sell-off. The upside move in the US Dollar Index (DXY) has paused and struggles to extend above the immediate resistance of 106.00. Economic Indicators: The near-term outlook for the USD has strengthened after the S&P Global PMI report showed unexpected expansion in the manufacturing and service sectors, with the Composite PMI jumping to 51.7. Despite the improved PMI figures, inflation concerns have eased, aligning with the Fed's 2% inflation target. 5. Bank of England and Market Expectations Interest Rate Outlook: Market speculation for the Bank of England (BoE) to begin lowering its key borrowing rates in August has increased after a dovish monetary policy statement. The BoE’s decision to hold interest rates at 5.25% was “finely balanced,” signaling potential rate cuts. Annual headline inflation has returned to the desired rate of 2%, but officials remain cautious about persistent service inflation, which decelerated to 5.7% in May. UK Economic Outlook: The UK’s economic outlook faces uncertainty after the preliminary S&P Global/CIPS PMI report showed unexpected slowing in the service sector, though the Manufacturing PMI expanded faster than expected. The slowdown reflects business environment uncertainty ahead of the general election, causing a hiatus in decision-making. Conclusion The GBP/USD pair is currently trading above 1.2650, showing signs of recovery amid a weakened US Dollar and positive risk sentiment. Technically, the pair faces immediate resistance at 1.2700 and has support at 1.2640 and below. Fundamentally, the outlook is influenced by US PMI data and BoE's interest rate expectations. The market will continue to monitor risk sentiment and upcoming economic indicators for further direction.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Australian dollar calm ahead of consumer confidenceAustralian dollar has started the week quietly. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6648 early in the North American session, up 0.11% on the day. Australia releases Westpac Consumer Sentiment early on Tuesday. Consumer confidence has been weak and fell 0.3% in May to 82.4, following a 2.4% decline in April. Consumers have been pessimistic about the weak economy and concerns that sticky inflation could prod the Reserve Bank of Australia to hike interest rates. The RBA has maintained its stance of “higher for longer”, holding rates at 4.35% for the past five meetings. The central bank hasn’t shied away from warning that it could raise rates if inflationary pressures don’t ease. The April CPI report surprised on the upside, rising from 3.5% to 3.6%, above the market estimate of 3.5%. The May CPI report will be released on Wednesday, with a market estimate of 3.8%. If inflation does rise again, we will no doubt hear the RBA express its concern and reiterate that rate hikes remain on the table. The economy is barely treading above water and posted a weak 0.1% gain in the first quarter, but the labor market, which is surprisingly tight, continues to confound the RBA and has dampened any hope of a rate cut in the near term. There are no US releases on Monday but we’ll hear from two FOMC members, Christopher Waller and Mary Daly. Investors will be hoping for some insights about the Fed’s rate path. The Federal Reserve has been hawkish as inflation has been stickier than anticipated. The markets have priced in a rate cut in September at around 60%, according to CME’s FedWatch. AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6655. Above, there is resistance at 0.6685 0.6591 and 0.6541 are the next support levels
by OANDA
EUR/USD Recovery: Navigating Key Resistance Amid Mixed SignalsEUR/USD Analysis 1. Recent Trend Recovery Trend: EUR/USD is showing a recovery momentum, approaching 1.0750 after closing the previous week in negative territory. Improved Risk Sentiment: The improved risk sentiment hampers USD demand, aiding EUR/USD's rise. 2. Technical Analysis Moving Averages: On the daily chart, EUR/USD is below all its moving averages. The bearish 20 SMA crosses below the 100 and 200 SMAs, all in the 1.0780/90 price zone. Technical Indicators: The technical indicators are slightly higher, moving away from oversold levels but still far from their midlines. Short-Term Scenario: The short-term picture shows increasing buying pressure. The EUR/USD pair is above the 20 SMA, while the longer moving averages maintain their bearish slopes above the current level. Technical indicators aim higher around neutral levels but struggle to surpass their midlines. 3. Key Levels Support: 1.0705 1.0660 1.0615 Resistance: 1.0755 1.0805 1.0845 4. Fundamental Context USD Pressure: The US Dollar is under mild selling pressure ahead of Wall Street's opening, giving up modest intraday gains. EUR/USD trades around 1.0730, recovering from an intraday low of 1.0681. Inflation and Political Jitters: Focus is on political concerns and inflation, particularly the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's (Fed) preferred inflation gauge. FOMC Minutes: The macroeconomic calendar will include the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, with limited impact on financial markets due to the Fed's recent economic projections. 5. European Economic Data German IFO: Germany published the June IFO Business Climate Index, which unexpectedly fell to 88.6 from 89.3 in May, missing the estimate of 89.7. Expert Assessment: FX strategists at Societe Generale note that expectations are down. 6. Future Outlook Short-Term Scenario: The EUR/USD pair needs to surpass 1.0760 to confirm positive momentum and extend gains towards the 1.0810 price zone. Market Considerations: Despite lowered expectations, the Euro is advancing even with tepid local data and might face resistance in reaching higher levels like 1.08. Conclusion The technical and fundamental outlook for EUR/USD suggests that despite a recovery momentum, the pair remains under pressure with significant resistance around 1.0760 and beyond. Economic dynamics and market expectations will continue to play a crucial role in the pair's performance, with particular attention to US economic data and Fed decisions.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Dollar Winning Streak Extends Into Fifth Week! Time to Go LongI wanted to share some exciting news from the forex world: the dollar has extended its winning streak into the fifth week! 🎉 A key gauge of the dollar's strength continues to rise, driven by the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the timing of the Federal Reserve's first interest-rate cut. With the yen showing signs of weakness, the USD is shining brightly on the global stage. This is a golden opportunity for us traders to capitalize on the dollar's momentum. If you haven't already, now might be the perfect time to consider going long on the US dollar. 🌟 Why should you consider this move? 1. **Strong Performance**: The dollar's consistent growth over the past five weeks clearly indicates its robust performance. 2. **Market Uncertainty**: With the Fed's interest-rate cut timeline still unclear, the dollar is likely to remain strong in the near term. 3. **Yen Weakness**: The yen's current weakness further bolsters the USD's position, making it an attractive option for traders. Don't miss out on this opportunity to ride the wave of the dollar's success! Dive into the market and make the most of this winning streak. 💪 Happy trading, and here's to continued success in all your endeavors!
TVC:DXY
by bryandowningqln
AUD/USD Upside Favored by Monetary Policy DeferentialAUD/USD upside bias is supported by the monetary policy differential and the technicals. The Australian central bank stayed on the sidelines on Tuesday, but once again considered the case for a hike and does not shut the door to such action. The US Fed on the other hand has already pointed to lower rates and markets expect two cuts within the year. The Aussie benefited from RBA’s hawkish hold and after defending again the pivotal 38.2% Fibonacci of the last leg up, it returned above the EMA200 (black line). This reaffirms the bullish tilt and strengthens prospects of new higher highs (0.6714), but does not inspire confidence for tackling 0.6839. On the other hand, AUD/USD has faltered above 0.6700 multiple times, creating scope for a pullback and a retest of the 38.2% Fibonacci and the daily Ichimoku Cloud. This would bring 0.6465 in the spotlight, but strong catalyst would be needed for testing it. Markets may be optimistic about two Fed cuts, but officials see just one and their reluctance to pivot supports the greenback. The RBA keeps the door open to a hike, but there is a high bar for such action, while deteriorating economy could increase pressure for easier stance. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Long
by FXCM
EURUSD is ready for a new lowEUR/USD has regained buying interest and reclaimed the 1.0700 level due to renewed weakness in the US Dollar and expectations of Fed rate cuts. A continued downtrend could see EUR/USD revisit the June low of 1.0667, the May low of 1.0649, and eventually the 2024 bottom of 1.0601. On the upside, the 200-day SMA appears at 1.0788, followed by the weekly high of 1.0852, the June high of 1.0916, and the March peak of 1.0981. The US Dollar started the week weak after a strong rebound last week, driven by expectations that the Fed will implement only one rate cut this year. In this environment, EUR/USD reversed from multi-week lows near 1.0670 despite ongoing political concerns in Europe, especially in France. Market participants are assessing the Fed's hawkish stance from the June 12 meeting and rising expectations for a December rate cut. Neel Kashkari, Minneapolis Fed President, stated it is a "reasonable prediction" for the Fed to lower rates once this year, likely in December. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, there is now nearly a 65% chance of a rate cut by the September 18 meeting. In the short term, the ECB's recent rate cut versus the Fed's hold has widened the policy gap, potentially weakening EUR/USD further. However, the emerging economic recovery in the Eurozone and perceived US economic slowdowns should help mitigate this disparity in the longer term, providing some support to the pair. ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane mentioned that the full impact of earlier rate hikes on Eurozone inflation is yet to be seen and that current bond market upheaval, particularly in France, is not chaotic, implying no need for ECB action. He emphasized the importance of a decline in service inflation momentum this year in supporting the ECB's disinflation narrative, with minimal new material expected before the July meeting. Lane is confident inflation will return to the 2% target next year despite some "noisy" inflation.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
S&P 500: All-Time Highs and Potential DeclineS&P 500 (SPX) Technical Analysis The S&P 500 (SPX) has continued its bullish trend as anticipated the previous week, successfully reaching the projected target of 5450. However, it now appears poised for a potential decline. This Week's Outlook: The price is likely to experience a strong bearish correction as long as it trades below 5450, potentially reaching 5310 and 5260. However, the SPX is expected to consolidate between 5450 and 5260. Bullish Scenario: To initiate a new bullish trend, the price must close at least a 4-hour candle above 5450, targeting 5485. Sustained stability above 5450 would be required to confirm a bullish move towards 5550. Bearish Scenario: As long as the price remains below 5450, it is expected to drop towards 5345 and 5310. A further decline could see the price reaching 5260. Key Levels: - Pivot Line: 5450 - Resistance Levels: 5484, 5525, 5550 - Support Levels: 5372, 5320, 5261 Weekly Expected Trading Range: The anticipated movement range for this week is between the resistance at 5460 and the support at 5260. In summary, maintaining a position below 5450 suggests a bearish outlook with lower support targets in focus. Conversely, closing above 5450 could indicate a bullish reversal, aiming for higher resistance levels. Our Previous Weekly Idea: Fundamental Analysis:: Market Analysis: S&P 500 at All-Time Highs Amid Overbought Conditions Overbought Conditions Aren't a Sell Signal: A low VIX indicates an overbought condition, but it does not serve as a sell signal. Bullish Momentum in the S&P 500: The S&P 500 (SPX) is once again at all-time highs, with bullish momentum accelerating. Following a favorable interpretation of the consumer price index figures on Wednesday, the S&P 500 surged to new intraday and closing all-time highs. Fed's Impact and Market Reaction: Despite a somewhat lukewarm outcome from the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting later that day, which triggered some sell programs, the overall buying momentum remained strong. Positive Indicators Amid Overbought Conditions: Our indicators have largely remained positive throughout this phase and continue to signal bullishness. However, overbought conditions are starting to appear, which is expected given the strength of the rally.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
The Printing Company- how it works : - Imagine you can create apples, and that you are the only one in the world able to do that. - So if you create 100 apples, you will make them more rare and unique, so maybe you can sell them for 10$ each one. - So now imagine you create 10,000,000,000 apples, you will have more apples than peoples need to eat, so you will have to sell your apples 0.0001$ - Anyway you don't really care about your apples price goes down because, you can create how many apples as you want, and the world population is growing. - This is exactly the same for the US Dollar : -- Less they print paper, less life is expensive, because we get some kind of USD rarefaction. -- More they print papers more the dollars flood the world, it makes it weak, then you need more papers to buy your home, a new car or food. -- Flooding the world with USD make everyone dependent on USD. - So in graph you can see how many dollars they created post crises 2007 and for Pandemic Covid in 2020. - So what is the situation right now : -- Basically they stopped to print ( that's the main reason DXY Pushed up. "Dollar rarefaction" ) and world economy crashed ( Forex, Stocks , Cryptos ) . -- In time they will have no choice to print again because their system is based on a greedy model. - What you see is the just top of the iceberg, the Fed is a mosquito if you compare it to the BIS ( Bank for International Settlements). - Actually controlling the flux of the creation of the dollar is just controlling the world system, it's a kind of tax form that you don't see, but you pay it much more than you think with inflation. - USD paper money system will end sooner or later for a new monetary model called CDBC. - it will be worst than you think as they will control everyone having a phone on their hand. - The Only way to to counter them is to buy Bitcoin because of his real disinflationary mechanic. - There's no other way to counter the system right now. Happy Tr4Ding !
ECONOMICS:USCBBS
by thecryer
7
GBP/USD dips as UK growth stallsThe British pound has lost ground on Thursday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2760 in the North American session at the time of writing, down 0.29% on the day. The UK economy showed no growth in April, which was in line with expectations but below the March reading of 0.4% m/m. This was the weakest reading in four months, as manufacturing and construction declined, offsetting the rise in services. Yearly, GDP rose 0.6% in April, down from 0.7% in May and in line with expectations. April showers dampened consumer spending as the UK economy continues to struggle. With a national election taking place on July 4th, politicians will be monitoring and making use of every economic release. The ruling Conservatives are trailing badly in the polls and today’s weak GDP could well be another nail in the coffin for the Conservatives. The Bank of England meets next week but there is little chance a rate cut in the middle of an election campaign. The markets have priced in an initial rate cut in September, although an August cut is a possibility, when the BoE releases quarterly growth and inflation forecasts. The advantage of waiting till September is that the Fed may cut at its September meeting, which is a day before the BoE meets. If the Fed does trim rates, then a BoE cut would not have as much negative impact on the British pound. In the US, May inflation decelerated. The headline figure fell from 3.4% y/y to 3.3% and the core rate dropped from 3.6% to 3.4%. The Federal Reserve held the benchmark rate, as expected, but noted that inflation was moving closer to the 2% target. The Fed remains cautious and has signaled just one rate cut before the end of the year. The probability of a quarter-point cut in September is 61%, according to CME’s FedWatch. GBP/USD is testing support at 1.2796. Below, there is support at 1.2733 1.2862 and 1.2925 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
Volatility strikes USD/JPY within rangeThe whipsaws for the US dollar around US CPI and the FOMC meeting made its mark on USD/JPY, which closed the day with a large hanging man candle beneath the May high. Markets are still deciding whether to pay closer attention to softer inflation data or the Fed's relatively hawkish meeting, and that likely means confusing price action on USD pairs. The 1-hour chart shows strong volume accompanying the rally from Wednesday's low, which suggests another crack at breaking above the week's high. But with plenty of resistance overhead, bears may be tempted to fade into rallies on hopes of driving the pair back to the range lows around 155.
Short
by CityIndex
ETH - Bow and Arrow Trade!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 📈 ETH has been overall bullish, trading above the rising trendline marked in blue. After rejecting the $4,000 - $4,100 resistance zone, ETH is undergoing a correction phase and it is currently hovering around the $3,500 round number. If the $3,500 is broken downward, a deeper bearish correction towards the $3,100 demand zone would be expected. 🏹 The highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for trend-following buy setups as it is the intersection of the green demand zone and blue trendline acting as a non-horizontal support. 📚 As per my trading style: As ETH approaches the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
by TheSignalyst
5
A Bullish Outlook for BTCUSDIn the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrency trading, recent developments in global monetary policy have sparked renewed interest in the BTCUSD market. With the European Central Bank's (ECB) recent decision to trim interest rates and today's release of better-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, coupled with ongoing speculation of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed), traders are eyeing long positions in Bitcoin (BTC) with a bullish outlook. Adding to the narrative, recent market dynamics reveal a pattern of range-bound trading in the BTCUSD market, with the $72,000 level serving as a key resistance level. As we anticipate a repetition of this pattern, informed traders are positioning themselves strategically to capitalize on potential price movements. Here's how traders are navigating these market conditions: Capitalizing on Central Bank Policies: The ECB's decision to lower interest rates underscores the prevailing sentiment of accommodative monetary policies aimed at stimulating economic growth. In response, traders are flocking to Bitcoin as a hedge against potential currency devaluation and inflationary pressures, driving demand and upward price momentum. Interpreting CPI Data and Market Expectations: Today's release of CPI data, slightly below expectations but still indicative of moderate inflationary pressures, has provided clarity on economic conditions. With the Fed expected to follow the ECB's lead and implement rate cuts, traders are anticipating a favorable environment for Bitcoin investments, as lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding cryptocurrencies. Technical Analysis and Strategic Positioning: Building on recent market trends, traders are employing technical analysis to identify key support and resistance levels. With the $72,000 level emerging as a significant resistance barrier, traders are setting profit-taking targets (TP) at this level, anticipating a potential retracement or consolidation. For risk management purposes, a stop-loss (SL) level at $67,000 is being widely utilized to mitigate downside risk. Market Sentiment and Long-Term Outlook: Despite short-term volatility, sentiment remains overwhelmingly bullish among long-term investors, driven by Bitcoin's growing adoption as a store of value and inflation hedge. Institutional interest, coupled with increasing retail participation, further validates Bitcoin's status as a viable investment asset, with the potential for substantial long-term gains. In conclusion, the convergence of central bank policies, economic data releases, and technical market analysis paints a compelling picture for traders seeking opportunities in the BTCUSD market. By leveraging strategic insights and risk management techniques, traders can position themselves to capitalize on potential price movements while navigating market volatility effectively. As always, traders are encouraged to conduct thorough research, stay informed of market developments, and adhere to disciplined trading strategies to achieve their financial objectives in the dynamic world of cryptocurrency trading.
BINANCE:BTCUSD.PLong
by exlux
US CPI Report Set to Influence Fed Decision and Market SentimentUS CPI Data Expected to Show Moderating Price Pressures Ahead of Fed Decision Key Highlights: Expected CPI Rise: The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is forecast to rise by 3.4% year-over-year (YoY) in May, maintaining the same pace as in April. Core CPI Inflation: Annual core CPI inflation is anticipated to slightly decrease from 3.6% in April to 3.5% in May. Impact on US Dollar and Fed Rate Cut Expectations: The upcoming inflation data could influence the US Dollar value and market expectations regarding a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Detailed Analysis: Upcoming CPI Data Release: The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is set to publish the highly anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data for May on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. This report is expected to bring intense volatility to the US Dollar, as any surprises in the inflation figures could significantly impact market expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate cut decisions in September. Inflation Expectations: Overall CPI: Expected to rise by 3.4% YoY in May, consistent with April’s rate. Core CPI: Forecast to inch down to 3.5% YoY from 3.6% in April. Month-over-Month (MoM) Changes: The CPI is anticipated to increase by 0.1% in May, down from a 0.3% rise in April. Core CPI is likely to hold steady at a 0.3% MoM increase. Federal Reserve’s Stance: In a recent moderated discussion, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell adopted a dovish stance, expressing lower confidence in inflation moving back down and suggesting it is unlikely that the next move would be a rate hike. Powell's comments came just before the April CPI data release, which showed softened headline and core inflation. Labor Market Impact: A strong US labor market report, showing a substantial increase in Nonfarm Payrolls and higher-than-expected Average Hourly Earnings, has tempered market expectations for a September rate cut. Despite earlier optimism for rate cuts, the robust labor data has led markets to reassess the likelihood of such cuts. Banks' Expectations for CPI: Goldman Sachs: Predicts CPI to be at 3.3% year-over-year, slightly lower than the previous month. JP Morgan: Expects CPI to remain stable at 3.4%, indicating no significant change. Morgan Stanley: Anticipates a slight decline to 3.2%, reflecting easing inflation pressures. Bank of America: Foresees CPI at 3.3%, aligning with a gradual slowdown in inflation. Analysts’ Forecasts: According to TD Securities analysts, core inflation is expected to slow to a "soft" 0.3% MoM in May, with the headline likely rising by a softer 0.1% due to a significant decline in energy prices. They also noted a potential for a dovish surprise with an unrounded core CPI forecast of 0.26% MoM. Conclusion: The upcoming US CPI data release is crucial, with potentially significant impacts on the US Dollar and market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. A CPI reading in line with expectations could reinforce current market positions, while any deviation could trigger substantial market volatility. This comprehensive analysis outlines the expectations and potential impacts of the upcoming CPI data, providing valuable insights for market participants.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by SroshMayi
CPI & FOMC JUNE 12th Massive day for BTC, crypto and the broader markets as CPI and FOMC take place in a time where BTC has taken a dive back towards the range MIDPOINT. Both CPI & FOMC are forecast to be non movers, with 3.4% and 5.5% respectively. Last month CPI was the catalyst for the move from 0.25 to range high, however some of that hard work has been undone in recent days. I would like to see the same kind of move but this time from the MIDPOINT which often provides a better starting point to a move. What we don't want to see if BTC is to keep bullish HTF momentum is lingering around the midpoint level with a view to target range lows yet again. Buyers need to come in fast before momentum is lost. With sentiment so low but price constantly knocking at the door of ATH, ETF's being approved leading to institutional investment, mining rewards halved and a US election on the way this year. Big things are about to happen in the world of cryptocurrency and Bitcoin is the one leading the charge as it so often does. Be greedy when others are fearful springs to mind. There is definitely fear in the market and its participants, The chart once you zoom out does not give me reason to be fearful just yet, this is a Bullrun and dips like these can be turned into wins.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by ProR35
$BTC price hours before FEDAfter forming Wyckoff's distribution pattern, #bitcoin price lost the trend support and now likely to test the trendline resistance zone (formerly support). There' ll be 2 powerful technical analysis scenario: 1- This dump to 66 - 67K will be remembered just a deviation, CPI and inflation rate will be positive and #btc will reclaim the trendline. So, distribution pattern will be longed or even invalidated later. Reclaiming 69.3K will be very important. 2- #btcusdt will have a bearish retest, price declination will make the distribution pattern fully play out and #btcusdt discover a price deeper low. Not financial advice. DYOR.
by naphyse
Fed decision time: Rate cuts before Nov election? The U.S. Federal Reserve is anticipated to maintain the federal funds target range at 5.25%-5.5% when officials conclude their two-day meeting on Wednesday. Investors will be scrutinizing the statement to learn when the central bank might eventually reduce its rate and the potential frequency of such cuts this year. Market expectations suggest a possible rate cut in mid-September, 2 months ahead of the November 5 presidential election. Eswar Prasad, a professor at Cornell University, noted that the recent May jobs report likely ruled out a rate cut in July, while Adam Posen, director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, goes even further, suggesting that the robust U.S. economy diminishes the likelihood of a pre-election rate cut. The Fed has rescheduled its November meeting to occur post-election, a move reminiscent of 2020. In a letter addressed to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, three Democratic senators, including Elizabeth Warren, have called for rate cuts as soon as possible. "The Fed’s monetary policy is... driving up housing and auto insurance costs—two of the key drivers of inflation...”. Former Fed Vice-Chair Donald Kohn asserted that Chair Powell has consistently maintained that decisions are driven by economic conditions rather than political considerations, expressing confidence that this principle will be upheld in the coming months.
TVC:DXY
by BlackBull_Markets