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SPX direction after first and last FED rate cutsThis chart compares FED rate cuts to SPX chart. The last 3 times after the first rate cuts there was a slight upward rally of the SP500 of about 5-10%, before going on a bearish retrace of about -40%, -50% & -20%, and then bottoming out only AFTER the final rate cut. Based on this, if history repeats, there might be a year end upward movement in the stock market, perhaps followed by a retrace through 2025 until the final rate cut. And then massively up from there again. The last 3 times rate cuts did not mean sp500 starts going up immediately. There was a retrace instead. SP500 went up only AFTER the final rate cut.
FRED:FEDFUNDSShort
by strip
50-50 Odds for Big Rate Cut this Wednesday The Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate decision is teetering on a knife’s edge, with the odds of a significant cut climbing. According to the CME’s FedWatch tool, the chances of a 25 or 50-basis-point reduction are now evenly split at 50-50. The decision from the cental bank comes in on Wednesday. Former New York Fed President Bill Dudley, speaking last week, bolstered the case for a more aggressive move, stating the federal funds rate could be up to 200 basis points above neutral. Dudley argued there’s a “strong case” for the Fed to start big. However, major banks are possibly leaning toward the Fed starting small. In a note, Bank of America’s analysts suggested “a small chance” of a 50bps cut, while UBS’s Brian Rose also acknowledged the possibility, though was not factoring it into his baseline.
TVC:DXY
by BlackBull_Markets
Is Gold signalling a crisis? Gold is going parabolic and typically that doesnt mean a good thing. Now there are many reasons this could be rallying and likely a combination of the few. - Fed Rate Cut - Geo political tension - Weak Fiat currencies - Currency Crisis - Weakening economies In a time where gold enters these monthly extreme RSI moves it typically signals a good time to start trimming. Gold usually goes through a multi month correction but this could also spill into other asset classes. As the steepening effect on the 10y/2y finally was confirmed today, large macro implications could follow and this is exactly what Gold confirmed this week.
TVC:GOLD
by Trading-Capital
Fed’s Rate Decision to Set the Tone for Stocks, Gold and CryptoOfficials at the central bank are staying tight-lipped over the magnitude of the interest rate cut. What we know so far: there will be one. What we don’t know: is it going to be 25bps or 50bps? Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell (or JPow if you’re a cool kid) is most likely having a hard time sleeping these days. Lurking in the near distance, September 18 to be precise, is a decision he should make that has the power to slosh trillions of dollars across global markets. Stock valuations, crypto prices and the glow of gold all hinge on a single figure — the US interest rate ( USINTR ). Major central banks are on the move to unwind their restrictive monetary policies, especially when it comes to global interest rates . Investors have been trying to run ahead of the interest rate decision and position their portfolios to accommodate both a small casual trim to borrowing costs but also a bigger, juicier slash. Clashing opinions over the size of the interest rate reduction have been swaying the financial markets in recent weeks. Fed officials haven’t sent out any comms regarding that question so markets do what they do best — speculate. According to the FedWatch tool by CME Group, at the end of this week, investors were nearly even in their expectations for the upcoming interest rate cut with 55% calling for a 25bps (basis points) cut and 45% rooting for the fuller treatment of 50bps. In any case, this would be the Federal Reserve’s first cut to borrowing costs in more than four years. The benchmark rate in the US is currently sitting at a 23-year high of 5.5% — a level that has stayed flat since July. After a series of reports pointing to a wobbling economy — and on the back of mostly receding inflation — the central banking clique issued its uplifting guidance at their previous meeting, saying rates are about to go down when they meet again. But what they didn’t say — because they’re data dependent — is how much. A 25bps cut to interest rates would most likely be already priced in across the spectrum. Stocks, the US dollar, gold and even cryptocurrency are now acting as if this level of rate cut is factored in. Moreover, some investors might even be disappointed to see a rate cut of that casual magnitude. Buy the rumor, sell the news, maybe? A 50bps cut to interest rates could bring some needed fuel for the next leg up in stocks, gold and crypto. And, on the flip side, knock the dollar’s valuation. Lower interest rates make money more affordable, enticing investors, businesses and consumers to get more cash out of the bank and spend more freely on big-ticket purchases. Obviously, investors shove the cash into various markets. Businesses expand operations and build new products. And consumers, well, they buy the new iPhone 16 and jam what's left in meme stocks ? Perhaps even more importantly, lower interest rates help steer the economy, keeping it on an upward trajectory. Liquidity improves, because there’s more money flowing in the system, and valuations of public and private assets usually increase. Take gold ( XAU/USD ), for example. Gold hit an all-time high Friday morning, pumping above $2,570 per ounce . Driving the gains was the relationship between gold and the prospects of lower rates, which make bullion more appealing because they reduce the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. At the same time, the US dollar loses some of its allure because the reduction in rates triggers a lower yield on dollar deposits. Bitcoin ( BTC/USD ) is another interest -ing candidate to join the rate interplay. The OG token has been increasingly correlated to macroeconomic factors and the rate decision is already seen impacting its price in a positive way. Stocks have been in choppy trading mode over the past couple of months largely due to the looming uncertainty about the looming rate-setting meeting. So what do you think it’s going to be — 25bps or 50bps? And how would it affect financial markets? Shoot your thoughts below!
SP:SPX
by TradingView
9
Euro rises after ECB cuts interest ratesThe euro has extended its gains on Friday. EUR/USD is trading at 1.1091 in the European session at the time of writing, up 0.13% today. The euro has climbed 0.7% since the ECB’s rate cut on Thursday. The European Central Bank delivered as expected on Thursday, trimming the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.5%. This was the second rate cut in the current rate-lowering cycle, as the ECB responded to falling inflation and a deteriorating eurozone economy. The war against inflation is largely won, which enabled the ECB to deliver the rate cut. Inflation in the eurozone has dropped to 2.2%, close to the target of 2%. The ECB updated inflation forecast was unchanged from June, with inflation expected to average 2.5% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025 At a press conference, ECB President Lagarde reiterated that rate decisions would be made “meeting by meeting” based on economic data, essentially ditching forward guidance. Lagarde sounded somewhat hawkish, noting that wage growth remains high and the labor market is still resilient. The ECB is being cautious and has signaled it will take a slow approach to further cuts and the markets are looking at a cut in December. If economic conditions suddenly worsen, the central bank would have to consider a rate cut next month. The Federal Reserve meets next week and rate cut odds continue to swing wildly. The US producer price index eased to 1.7% y/y in August, down from a downwardly revised 2.1% in July and below the market estimate of 1.8%. This sent the odds of a half-point cut soaring to 41%, up from just 13% yesterday, according the CME’s FedWatch. The Fed meeting is live, with plenty of uncertainty as whether the Fed will cut by 25 or 50 basis points. EUR/USD faces resistance at 1.1099 and 1.1123 There is support at 1.1052 and 1.1028
by OANDA
PIMCO Warning on Fed's First Cut in 4 Years next week The only event that matters next week is the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, which could result in its first rate cut in over four years PIMCO analysts, in a fresh note, outlined what could be in store for the U.S. dollar as the Fed embarks on its rate-cutting cycle. Historically, the dollar has shown a tendency to weaken, at least briefly, following the Fed’s initial rate cuts since the 1990s. The Fed now faces a tight decision on whether to opt for a larger-than-expected half-point cut or stick with a quarter-point reduction. An aggressive half-point move could raise concerns that the central bank is concerned about the economic outlook for the US, potentially prompting markets to price in further, more drastic rate cuts beyond the Fed's current trajectory.
ECONOMICS:USINTR
by BlackBull_Markets
AU Bears "Head" Down to Target .6570Here I have AUD/USD on the Daily Chart! From Friday's High @ .67672 to its Low @ .66597, we can see we get the Confirmation of a strong reversal pattern with the Break of the Neckline of the Head & Shoulders! Now what I'd like to see off the same High and Low of Friday is Price give us a 38.2% Retracement of the Low & Pullback to test the Neckline for potential Sell Entries. ( .67008 - .6697 ) Swing High of Head to Neckline = 126.9 Pips Neckline - 126.9 = .6570 (Target) Fundamentals: AUD's undoing comes from a mix of a rise in Unemployment to 4.2% and Retail Sales ending August coming in @ 0% With the horrible run of jobs reports for the USD to start September, it managed to recover to end the week and give the idea that a 50 bps Rate Cut is less likely sitting at a 30% change and a 25 bps Rate Cut more likely at a 70% chance at the Sept 18th meeting. -RBA Interest Rate sits @ 4.35% -Fed Interest Rate sits @ 5.5% This upcoming week will be VERY news heavy for USD seeing as there is: -Core CPI, CPI m & y on Wednesday, Sept. 11th -Core PPI/ PPI m/m & Unemployment Claims on Thursday, Sept 12th!
Short
by Novi_Fibonacci
NZ dollar drifting ahead of manufacturing dataThe New Zealand dollar is showing little movement on Thursday. NZD/USD is trading at 0.6139 at the time of writing, up 0.05% on the day. New Zealand’s manufacturing sector has been in the doldrums, as the manufacturing PMI has posted 17 consecutive declines. Friday’s PMI is expected to improve to 47 in August, up from 44 in July (a reading below 50 points to contraction). The New Zealand economy has deteriorated and in August the Reserve Bank of New Zealand responded with its first rate cut since March 2020. The RBNZ has joined the club, as most major central banks have lowered rates and the Federal Reserve is poised to do so next week. The RBNZ will be looking to continue lowering rates, as the cash rate of 5.25% remains high and is weighing on economic activity and households. Inflation has dropped to 3.3%, which is close to the target of between 1% and 3%. The central bank meets next on Oct. 9 and there is pressure on the RBNZ to follow up with a second straight rate cut. In the US, today’s inflation numbers were a mix. Headline producer prices rose 1.7% Y/Y in August, following a downwardly revised 2.1% gain in July and just below the market estimate of 1.8%. However, core PPI rose from 2.3% to 2.4%, below the estimate of 2.5%. Today’s PPI data didn’t budge the market pricing of a Fed rate cut, with an 87% probability of a 25-bps cut next week, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Still, not everybody is on board for small cut – JP Morgan is projecting that the Fed will deliver a jumbo 50-bps reduction. NZD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6134. Above, there is resistance at 0.6160 There are support lines at 0.6110 and 0.6084
by OANDA
USD/JPY: Reversal Signal or More Downside? The Japanese yen has tested prices below 141, an eight-month low for the pair. But eventually pulled back above 142. From a technical perspective, this long wick might look to some traders to be the start of a small reversal before its eventual sojourn lower. Rom a fundamental perspective, US Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in a few hours ago lower than expected. Which means the US Federal Reserve might forgo a 50bps cut in favor of a 25bps next week. This might help support the US dollar in the face of yen strength. Now we have US Producer Price Index (PPI) to look forward to on Thursday. The Yen against Euro could be interesting to keep an eye on too in the lead up to the European Central Bank (ECB) decision. On Thursday, the ECB is expected to cut its interest rate to 3.5% from 3.75%.
by BlackBull_Markets
USD/JPY drops below 141, US CPI drops to 2.5%The Japanese yen has extended its gains on Wednesday. USD/JPY fell as low as 140.70, its lowest level this year, before paring much of the losses. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 141.71 at the time of writing, down 0.52% on the day. The hotly-anticipated US inflation report didn’t shake up the markets as it was pretty much as advertised. Headline CPI eased to 2.5% y/y in August, down from 2.9% in July and matching expectations. This was the fifth straight decline in headline inflation. Monthly, CPI was unchanged at 0.2%, in line with the market estimate. Core CPI was unchanged at 3.2% y/y, matching the market estimate. Monthly, the core rate ticked up to 0.3%, up from the July gain of 0.2% and the market estimate of 0.2%. The inflation report comes just one week before the Federal Reserve meeting on Sept. 18. Market rate cut odds have been swinging wildly as it remains unclear whether the Fed will cut by a modest 25 basis points or a jumbo 50-bps cut. The odds of a 50-bps move surged to 59% after the soft nonfarm payroll report on Friday, but were down to 27% just prior to today’s inflation report and have fallen to 15% following the release, according to the CME’s FedWatch. This puts the likelihood of a 25-bps cut at 85%, although we’re likely to see the odds continue to shift in the days ahead. The Bank of Japan meets on Sept. 20, two days after the Fed meeting. The BoJ is looking to continue tightening but will likely stay on the sidelines next week, as BoJ officials have ruled out a rate hike while the financial markets are unsteady. That could mean that the BoJ will push off a rate hike until December or January. USD/JPY tested support at 141.54 earlier. Below, there is support at 140.79 There is resistance at 142.80 and 143.31
by OANDA
GBP/USD AnalysisFundamental Overview: UK Employment Data: The latest employment figures from the UK show a slight improvement in the ILO Unemployment Rate, down to 4.1% from 4.2%, and a significant increase in Employment Change to 265K. However, wage inflation (excluding bonuses) has eased to 5.1% from 5.4%, reflecting slower growth in wages. Although these figures offered some short-term support to GBP/USD, the pair struggled to maintain its gains due to a broader risk-averse sentiment in the market. The UK’s FTSE 100 index is also down, signaling cautious sentiment among investors. US Economic Outlook: The lack of high-impact data from the US economic calendar on Tuesday provides little momentum for GBP/USD to attract buyers. Investors are awaiting Wednesday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for August, which could influence the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy decisions. If the CPI report signals persistent inflationary pressures, it could strengthen the US Dollar further and weigh on GBP/USD. Market Sentiment: The risk-averse atmosphere, likely driven by concerns over global economic conditions, has limited any significant recovery in GBP/USD. This has kept the pair on the back foot, with traders focusing on the upcoming US CPI report as a potential catalyst for the next move. Technical Outlook: Downside Levels: GBP/USD is testing critical support levels as it extends its decline toward 1.3050. The 1.3040 level, which corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the latest uptrend, serves as the next key support. A break below this could push the pair toward 1.3000, a psychological and static level, and further down to 1.2965-1.2970, which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA). Upside Resistance: On the upside, immediate resistance lies at 1.3100 (static level), followed by 1.3130, where the 20, 50, and 100-period SMAs converge with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. A sustained break above 1.3130 could trigger a recovery toward 1.3200, another psychological and static level.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
GBP/USD steady as UK wage growth eases, GDP nextThe British pound has edged lower on Tuesday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3055, down 0.14% on the day. UK wage growth eased in the three months to July, an encouraging sign for the Bank of England as it looks to continue lowering rates. Average earnings excluding bonuses climbed 5.1% y/y, down from 5.4% in the previous period and in line with the market estimate. This was the lowest level since June 2022. Wage growth is moving in the right direction but is still much too high for the BoE’s liking as it is incompatible with the target of keeping inflation at 2%. The UK labour market remains strong, as the unemployment rate edged down to 4.1%, down from 4%. The economy created 265 thousand jobs in the three months to July, up sharply from 97 thousand in the previous report and blowing past the market estimate of 115 thousand. The solid data means that the BoE isn’t under pressure to cut rates next week, and the markets are looking at another cut in November. The UK economy gets a report card on Wednesday, with the release of GDP for July. The economy flatlined in June and rose just 0.6% in the three months to June. Another weak GDP release could put pressure on the British pound. Investors will be keeping a close eye on Wednesday’s US inflation release. The Federal Reserve is now focused on employment now that inflation is between 2% and 3%, but a CPI surprise could shake up the markets and change market pricing for a Fed rate cut. The odds of a 50-basis point cut have been slashed to 29%, compared to 59% on Friday. There is resistance at 1.3167 and 1.3225 1.3069 and 1.3011 are providing support
by OANDA
Gold Market Analysis: Fed Speculation and Dollar StrengthFundamental Overview: US Dollar Strength and Interest Rate Speculations: Gold’s price movement is currently influenced by the strength of the US Dollar, driven by shifting expectations regarding interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed). Following the release of mixed US labor market data, investor bets on a 50 basis points (bps) rate cut in September have decreased. The probability of such a cut is now seen at 29%, down from 47% before the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. This shift in expectations has strengthened the US Dollar, putting pressure on non-yielding assets like gold. Safe-Haven Demand and Global Concerns: Despite the downward pressure from the stronger dollar, concerns over a slowdown in China’s economy have increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold. The precious metal remains supported as a hedge against risk during times of economic uncertainty. Moreover, rising US Treasury yields contribute to gold’s struggles, as higher yields make other assets more attractive compared to non-yielding gold. Upcoming Inflation Data: All eyes are on the upcoming US inflation data, which could significantly impact gold’s price movements. Inflation is a key indicator for the Fed’s future rate decisions, and any surprises in the data could trigger volatility in both the US Dollar and gold. If inflation comes in higher than expected, it could dampen the prospects for aggressive Fed rate cuts, further pressuring gold. Fed’s Blackout Period: The Fed has entered its “blackout period” ahead of the September 18th policy decision, meaning there will be no further communication from central bankers. This leaves gold trading in a familiar range, awaiting clearer direction from inflation data and the upcoming Fed decision. Outlook and Key Events: Bullish Scenario: If gold manages to hold the $2,499 support level and breaks through the $2,532 resistance, it could extend gains towards $2,550. Bearish Scenario: If gold fails to defend the $2,499 level, it could drop to $2,472 and potentially $2,461. A further strengthening of the dollar and rising yields would exert additional bearish pressure.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
EUR/USD Analysis: Fundamental and Technical OutlookFundamental Overview: Eurozone Inflation: Recent inflation data from the eurozone points toward expectations of an interest rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB). This could weigh on the euro in the medium term, as lower interest rates generally reduce the currency's appeal by offering lower yields for investors. US Economic Data: The August jobs report revealed weaker-than-expected growth in the private sector, with only 99,000 jobs added compared to the forecast of 145,000. This contributed to the US dollar’s weakness. US Monetary Policy: Current market expectations suggest a 43% probability of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve. This factor weakens the dollar further, but a shift in sentiment based on economic data could reverse the trend. Technical Analysis: Resistance Levels: 1.1160 serves as the first key resistance level, followed by 1.1200, which marks the endpoint of the latest uptrend. If the rally continues, 1.1250 becomes the next target for buyers. Support Levels: If EUR/USD falls below 1.1100, it could trigger bearish pressure. The next significant support lies at 1.1040 .
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Can Inflation Shift the Fed’s Rate Path? This week’s inflation data could be decisive for traders as markets weigh whether the Fed will cut rates by 25 or 50 basis points. Last week’s jobs report did not sway the market from its current consensus. The US economy added 142,000 jobs in August 2024, falling short of the expected 160,000, based on the latest NFP data. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of a 25-bps rate cut climbed to 73%, while expectations for a 50-bps cut dropped to 27%. Attention now turns to inflation, with consumer prices expected to fall to 2.6%—the lowest since March 2021—and producer prices anticipated to rise 0.2% month-over-month. Key USD pairs to watch this week include EUR/USD, with the ECB's upcoming interest rate decision in focus. Additionally, pairs impacted by inflation data releases from Mexico, Brazil, Russia, and India could see significant movement.
by BlackBull_Markets
EUR/USD dips after US payrolls misses estimateThe euro has edged lower on Friday. EUR/USD is trading at 1.1088 in the North American session at the time of writing, down 0.20%. Today’s US nonfarm payrolls wasn’t a disaster but certainly nothing to smile about. The economy created 142 thousand new jobs in August, better than the July gain of 114 thousand but short of the market estimate of 160 thousand. The unemployment rate ticked lower to 4.2%, in line with expectations and a shade below the market estimate of 4.3%. The US dollar hasn’t shown much reaction to the employment report. However, expectations for an oversize 50-basis point cut from the Federal Reserve in September have shot up to 59%, up from 43% prior to the nonfarm payrolls release, according to CME’s FedWatch. Had nonfarm payrolls beaten expectations, it likely would have cemented a 25-bps cut. The soft reading means that the Fed meeting is live, with investors unsure about the size of the expected rate cut. The US will release CPI and retail sales before the Fed meeting and any surprises from these releases could impact on the rate decision. Germany’s economy continues to flounder, which doesn’t bode well for the eurozone economy. German industrial production, released today, declined 2.4% m/m in July, down from a 1.7% gain in June and shy of the market estimate of -0.3%. Manufacturing declined across the board and the automotive sector was especially weak. Yearly, industrial output declined by 5.3% in July, compared to a 3.7% decline in June. The European Central Bank meets on Sept. 12 and is widely expected to trim rates after an initial cut in July. Inflation has been tamed and is close to the 2% target and the eurozone economy is struggling. The ECB wants to avoid a recession and a rate cut would provide a boost to the economy and provide relief for consumers. EUR/USD is testing support at 1.1082. Below, there is support at 1.1044 There is resistance at 1.1119 and 1.1102
by OANDA
Yen extends gains on solid wage growth, consumer spending nextThe Japanese yen has posted gains on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 143.27 at the time of writing, down 0.33% on the day. The yen continues to pummel the US dollar and is up 1.9% this week. Since July 1, the yen has surged a massive 10.7%. Average cash earnings in Japan rose 3.6% y/y in July, down from 4.5% in June, which was the highest since January 1997. Still, this beat the market estimate of 3.1%. Wages are a key factor as to how soon the Bank of Japan could raise interest rates. Inflation has been moving higher but the BoJ wants to see increased wage growth as well in order to achieve the Bank’s target of sustainable inflation at 2%. Japanese firms agreed to a huge wage increase of 5.1% for 2024 and this is being reflected in solid wage growth. Japan’s economy is showing signs of recovery and consumers are opening their wallets. Household spending will be released early Friday and is expected to rebound with a gain of 1.2% y/y in July, following a 1.4% decline in June. In the US, all eyes are on Friday’s employment report, specifically nonfarm payrolls. After a lower-than-expected gain of 114 thousand in July, the markets expect a gain of 160 thousand in August. The weak July numbers triggered a meltdown in the financial markets and investors remain uneasy. The Federal Reserve is poised to deliver a milestone rate cut on Sept. 18. The likelihood of a 25 bps cut stands at 61% and a 50 bps cut at 39%, according to CME’s FedWatch and these odds could change after the US employment report. USD/JPY has pushed below support at 143.57 and tested support at 142.91 earlier There is resistance at 144.10 and 144.76
by OANDA
AUD/USD sinks ahead of GDPThe Australian dollar is sharply lower on Tuesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6732 in the European session, down 0.88% today at the time of writing. Australia’s economy has been sputtering and the markets aren’t expecting much change from second-quarter GDP on Wednesday. GDP is expected to trickle lower to 1% y/y, down from 1.1% in Q1, which was the weakest pace of growth since Q4 2020. Quarterly, the market estimate for GDP stands at 0.3%, compared to 0.1% in Q1. GDP-per-capita is expected to be negative, another indication that economic activity remains subdued. Australia has been hit by a drop in iron ore and core prices and exports fell by 4.4% in the second quarter, which doesn’t bode well for the Australian dollar. The GDP is unlikely to change the Reserve Bank of Australia’s plans when it meets on Sept. 24. The central bank is closely watching inflation, which remains stubbornly high, as well as the labor market. Governor Bullock has said she has no plans to lower the cash rate from its current 4.35% for the next six months. The RBA has stuck to its “higher for longer” stance and has maintained rates since November. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to lower rates on September 18, with a 70% likelihood of a quarter-point cut and a 31% likelihood of a half-point cut. Ahead of the meeting is a crucial employment report on Friday. The previous jobs report was much weaker than expected and triggered a meltdown in the financial markets. Another weak jobs report would raise the likelihood of a half-point cut, while a solid release will cement a quarter-point cut. AUD/USD has pushed below support at 0.6780 and is testing support at 0.6737. Below, there is support at 0.6708 0.6809 and 0.6852 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
Will the dollar bounce back from its current decline? The US July PCE was in line with market consensus. Headline PCE prices rose 0.2% from a month ago and 2.5% from a year ago, which aligns with market expectations. Core PCE, the Fed's price benchmark, rose only 0.16%, slower than the previous month's 0.18%. This is the lowest level this year and has catalyzed the market sentiment of the Fed’s rate cut. It is worth noting that despite a 0.3% increase in personal income, surpassing the previous month's 0.2%, the savings rate remains alarmingly low. This is because personal consumption expenditures are growing at a faster rate than personal income. The current savings rate has dropped to 2.9%, marking only the second instance in the past 16 years, since the global financial crisis, the savings rate has fallen to the 2% range. This implies that consumption in the United States could decline quickly, serving as a cautionary signal that if employment falters, there may be insufficient buffers to sustain consumption. DXY sustained its uptrend after breaking out of the descending channel and advanced to 101.60. The price consolidates around the 101.50-101.70 range, waiting for an additional price trigger. If the price breaches the resistance at 101.80 while holding above the EMA, the price may gain upward momentum toward 102.60. Conversely, if DXY fails to stay above both EMAs and retreats to the support at 100.50, the price could fall further to the 100.00 threshold.
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by inkicho_exness