Get started

Fed

EURUSD Higher after US CPI but Policy Dynamics to WeighWednesday’s US CPI report showed a moderation in price pressures in April, following months of persistence, with headline inflation easing to 3.4% y/y and core to 3.6% y/y. Along with the miss in retail sales, markets strengthened their pricing for two rate cuts this year by the Fed, staring in September. The greenback fell as a result, sending EURUSD to the highest levels in nearly a month. this bring the March peak in the spotlight (1.0981), but we are cautious around the ascending prospects. US Inflation remains far from the 2% target, which along with strong economy and robust labor market have raised the bar for a Fed to pivot, leading policymakers to higher-for-longer narrative. Their European peers have made more progress on moderating price pressures and the economy struggles. As a result, the ECB looks more ready to lower rates, having hinted at a June pivot. The monetary policy differentially is likely to cap the upside and put pressure on EURUSD. Along with overbought RSI, there is scope for a retreat towards the EMA200 (black line). Daily closes below it would shift bias to the downside and make the common currency vulnerable to the 2024 lows (1.0600). Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Short
by FXCM
AUD/USD gains ground ahead of wage growthThe Australian dollar has posted gains on Tuesday. AUD/USD is up 0.19%, trading at 0.6620 in the North American session at the time of writing. Australia’s wage growth for the first quarter is expected to remain unchanged. Wages rose 4.2% in the fourth quarter of 2023, the highest since 2009, with most categories showing increases. On a quarterly basis, wage prices rose 1.9%, which was the lowest gain in three quarters. If the release is not within expectations, we could see a reaction from the Australian dollar. Is the Reserve Bank of Australia considering a rate cut? The central bank hasn’t shown any rush to shift policy and held rates at 4.35% for a fourth straight time at last week’s meeting. The RBA has stressed that rate policy will be data-dependent and has made the battle against inflation its top priority. A rate cut isn’t coming until inflation falls and the RBA doesn’t expect inflation to fall within the target range of 2-3% before 2025. Inflation has come down to 3.6% but the last phase of getting inflation within target could be the most difficult part, as the Federal Reserve has discovered. Unless inflation surprises with a sharp drop in the coming months, a rate cut is unlikely before November or early 2025. Federal Reserve Chair Powell speaks at an event in Amsterdam later today and the markets will be looking for hints regarding a rate cut. The Fed has delayed plans to cut rates as the US economy remains resilient and inflation has unexpectedly accelerated. The US releases April inflation data this week and a drop in inflation would increase the likelihood of a rate cut in September. The US releases PPI is expected to remain unchanged at 2.4% in April while CPI is projected to ease to 3.6%, down from 3.8% in April. AUD/USD tested support at 0.6602 earlier. Below, there is support at 0.6559 0.6645 and 0.6688 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
EUR VS. USD, Traders @ Equilibrium?? Lets Navigate!Here I have EUR/USD on the Daily Chart! This Spring of 2024 we can see Price of EUR/USD has kind of been "trapped" where you can see the Highs in March begin to follow a subtle Falling Resistance from the Local Resistance Zone, then CONFIRMED by the test of said trendline early April and NOW early May where we see Price has come to rest just below our Falling Resistance. Countering that is the Rising Support from the Local Support Zone where Price tested three times in April. Altogether, forming what looks to be a Symmetrical Triangle Pattern!! -Basically showing us that traders are unsure where price may go, creating a point of equilibrium to where we eventually see a BREAK either BULLISH -or- BEARISH! __ In the Event that the Symmetrical Triangle is BROKEN, I suspect we could see a potential 3%+ Price move in the direction of the BREAK given it is a TRUE BREAKOUT and not a FAKEOUT! **This prediction sees Price testing the JULY/OCT levels of 2023 depending on which way we see the scale tip in strength between EUR and USD, making these levels our 1st Areas of TP! Zones of Value: July 2023 High Resistance ( 1.12298 - 1.11404 ) Local Resistance ( 1.10426 - 1.09812 ) Oct. 2023 Low Support ( 1.05167 - 1.04503 ) Local Support ( 1.07238 - 1.06601 ) Now fundamentally, DXY started this month with HOTTER than expected ADP Non-Farm Employment Change numbers and remarkable Manufacturing Prices but ended the first week with EXTREMELY poor Non-Farm Employment Change and Services PMI then to end last week with disappointing Unemployment Claims and UoM Consumer Sentiment BUT What's left to come this week may give us a clearer map to help us navigate this pair!! USD- PPI (Tues), CPI & Retail Sales (Wed), Unemployment Claims (Thur) EUR- ECB Financial Stability Review (Thur) *More for EUR following week for news*
by Novi_Fibonacci
Factors Driving Gold (XAUUSD) Prices Up Analysis: Factors Driving Gold Prices Up Here is why we think it will go up (FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS) Weak NFP Report and Potential Fed Rate Cuts: The recent Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report came in weaker than expected, signaling sluggish job growth in the United States. This unexpected weakness has raised speculation that the Federal Reserve may consider cutting interest rates to stimulate economic growth. Impact of Weak NFP Report: The NFP report provides insights into the health of the US economy, and a weaker-than-expected report suggests economic challenges. Which helps the fight against inflation. Potential Fed Policy Response: In response to disappointing economic indicators, such as the weak NFP report, the Federal Reserve may consider implementing monetary policy measures to support economic recovery. One such measure could be a reduction in interest rates to stimulate borrowing and spending, thereby bolstering economic activity. Gold as a Safe-Haven Asset: Gold is often viewed as a safe haven asset during times of economic uncertainty and inflation. The prospect of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve can further enhance gold's appeal, as lower interest rates typically diminish the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. Here is what to watch out for that might stop it from going up: Market Response and Federal Reserve Policy Decisions Market participants should closely monitor any signals or announcements from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate decisions, as they can significantly influence investor sentiment and, consequently, gold prices. If it becomes more likely for the Federal Reserve to not cut rates, well expect gold prices to plummet. Economic Indicators and Geopolitical Developments: It's important to stay attuned to key economic indicators, central bank policies, and geopolitical developments that could impact gold markets. Any shifts in these factors could alter the trajectory of gold prices. (TECHNICAL ANALYSIS) Trade setup explained: Take-Profit is set at 2344 due to a strong resistance line there (see white horizontal line) Stop-Loss is set at 2311 which is right under 2315, 2315 has been showing stronger support. Conclusion: The weak NFP report and the potential for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have contributed to upward pressure on gold prices. However, market participants should remain vigilant and assess the evolving economic landscape and its impact on gold markets. By monitoring economic indicators and central bank policies, investors can make informed decisions in the dynamic world of gold trading. Like always use proper risk-management. Greetings, Zila
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ZILATRADES
32
Pound shows little reaction as BoE holds ratesThe British pound is showing limited movement on Thursday. GBP/USD is up 0.15%, trading at 1.2515 in the North American session at the time of writing. The Bank of England kept the cash rate unchanged at 5.25% for a sixth straight time in a widely expected move. The British pound dropped slightly after the announcement but then recovered. The breakdown of the vote by the nine members of the MPC was noteworthy, as two members voted for a 0.25% cut, with seven voting to hold rates. At the April meeting, the vote was eight members in favor of a hold and one voting to cut rates by 0.25%. The meeting minutes made reference to the split vote and also noted a “range of views” among MPC members over inflation risks. Governor Bailey still has a solid majority but if additional MPC members veer away from Bailey’s stance, it will complicate his job and could affect his credibility. The markets were hoping that the BoE would use today’s meeting to signal a rate cut in June, much in the way that the European Central Bank essentially confirmed a June rate cut at its April meeting. Bailey said that “a change in the bank rate in June has neither been ruled out or a fait accompli”. Bailey also stated that the BOE could start to cut before the Federal Reserve, which has delayed plans to lower rates due to rising inflation in the US. The BoE would prefer to have the Fed move first, otherwise a BoE rate cut will hurt the British pound which could result in higher inflation. The Fed has put the brakes on plans to lower rates as inflation as proved stickier than expected. Fed members have said that monetary policy needs to remain restrictive and Boston Fed president Susan Collins said on Wednesday that inflation will take more time to fall than expected and added “there is no pre-set path for policy”. The Fed has been pouring cold water on rate cut expectations although the markets still expect two rate cuts before the end of the year. GBP/USD dropped below support at 1.2468 and put pressure on support at 1.2440 1.2497 and 1.2525 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
GOLD - Trading Inside the Triangle#XAU/USD #Analysis Description --------------------------------------------------------------- + GOLD price is currently trading inside the triangle and the price has been ranging since May + I'm expecting the price to break downwards as the overall trend on lower timeframe is bearish. + We have good opportunity for a short trade here. --------------------------------------------------------------- VectorAlgo Trade Details ------------------------------ Entry Price: 2311.453 Stop Loss: 2325.813 ------------------------------ Target 1: 2304.801 Target 2: 2300.000 Target 3: 2290.430 ------------------------------ Timeframe: 1H Capital Risk: 1-2% of trading amount --------------------------------------------------------------- Enhance, Trade, Grow --------------------------------------------------------------- Feel free to share your thoughts and insights. Don't forget to like and follow us for more trading ideas and discussions. Best Regards, VectorAlgo
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by VectorAlgo
🇺🇸 US2M - QE To buy the US Debt again ? 💎Here's an intriguing observation I'd like to discuss. The increasing number of diamond 💎💎 alerts serves as a warning sign indicating an imminent significant market move. - What is the US2M? The M2 money supply is a measure of the total amount of money in circulation within an economy that includes cash, checking deposits, savings deposits, and other liquid assets. It's broader than M1, which only includes cash and checking deposits. M2 is important because it gives a more comprehensive picture of the available money for spending and investment within an economy. - Does quantitative easing add to the money supply? Quantitative easing expands the money supply by enlarging the central bank's balance sheet and introducing fresh cash into the economy. This process boosts banks' reserves held at the central bank, effectively increasing the overall money available for circulation and lending. So what does it imply ? 📈 When we say quantitative easing increases the money supply, it means that it adds more money into circulation within the economy. This can lead to more available funds for spending, investment, and lending, which can stimulate economic activity. ( + the US Dollar often goes down in this case) 📉 On the other hand, if we say quantitative easing decreases the money supply, it would mean the opposite: the central bank is reducing the amount of money in circulation. This could be done to control inflation or to address other economic concerns where too much money in circulation might cause problems like rising prices. (+ the US Dollar often goes up in this case) Do not forget to check this US2M Chart, it is very important. I wish you a great day. ILT 💎
ECONOMICS:USM2Long
by IllumiTrade
GOLD BUY WEAK NFP It's essential to understand that gold prices are influenced by a myriad of factors, including economic data and central bank policies. Recently, the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, a key indicator of economic health in the United States, came in weaker than expected. This unexpected weakness in job creation has led to speculation that the Federal Reserve may be inclined to cut interest rates to stimulate economic growth. The correlation between weak economic data, such as a lackluster NFP report, and the potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve can significantly impact gold prices. Here's how: Weak NFP Report: The NFP report provides insights into the employment landscape of the United States. A weaker-than-expected report suggests sluggish job growth, which can dampen confidence in the economy and raise concerns about future economic performance. Fed Policy Response: In response to disappointing economic indicators, such as the weak NFP report, the Federal Reserve may consider implementing monetary policy measures to support economic recovery. One such measure could be a reduction in interest rates to stimulate borrowing and spending, thereby bolstering economic activity. Impact on Gold Prices: Gold is often viewed as a hedge against economic uncertainty and inflation. In times of economic instability or anticipation of looser monetary policy, investors may flock to gold as a safe haven asset. The prospect of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve can further enhance gold's appeal, as lower interest rates typically diminish the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. Now, let's integrate this understanding into our analysis of gold's current trajectory: Given the recent weak NFP report, there's growing speculation that the Federal Reserve may opt for interest rate cuts to support the economy. This has injected a sense of uncertainty into the market and bolstered demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Consequently, we've seen an upward pressure on gold prices as investors seek refuge from economic volatility. In light of these developments, it's crucial to consider the potential implications for gold's future movements. Any signals or announcements from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate decisions will be closely monitored by market participants, as they can significantly influence investor sentiment and, consequently, gold prices. CONCLUSION: Thats why we have put the buy order right on 2300 levels and a potential take profit on 2330, this is because there is a big resistance level there. Furtermore you can use the TradingView tools horizontal line that mark the support and resistance level which is very convenient. As we navigate these dynamics, it's important to exercise caution and remain vigilant in assessing the evolving economic landscape and its impact on gold markets. Market participants should stay attuned to key economic indicators, central bank policies, and geopolitical developments to make informed decisions in the dynamic world of gold trading.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by ZILATRADES
Gold Surges as US Jobs Data Sparks Fed Rate Cut SpeculationThe price of gold witnessed a reversal in trend during Monday's Asian session, halting a two-day losing streak. Weaker-than-expected US employment reports bolstered the likelihood of a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Consequently, the US dollar declined while dollar-denominated gold rose. Upon reviewing the daily chart, I observed sellers rejecting upward moves for two consecutive days around the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Technical indicators remain negative, signaling a downside risk. Throughout the week, I noticed a struggle in the financial market to find a clear direction, partly due to uncertainty stemming from Federal Reserve policies. Despite the Fed announcing a reduction in the pace of its securities holdings decline, interest rates remained unchanged. Chairman Powell expressed both hawkish and dovish stances, emphasizing the importance of employment data in shaping future policy moves. Furthermore, I examined recent US employment data, including private sector job additions and the unemployment rate. The labor market appears tight, with indications of increasing wage pressures. Wishing everyone successful trading and a great week ahead.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
AU to Dec. 2023 Levels?!Here I have AUD/USD on the Daily Chart! Since the Low in April, Price for AU has been on a Bullish Run! I believe the Resistance Level it has been struggling with all year may be coming to BREAK soon!! On the tail of LOWER than expected NFP numbers for USD last week AND word that the RBA may be needing to look to INCREASE INTEREST RATES .. We could see MUCH more bullishness from AU SO much in fact that I think the Highs of Dec. 2023 may be in sights! I am currently waiting for: Price to fall Lower to a Minor Level of Support to enter a Buy Position -OR- Price to Break the Resistance Zone @ ( .6640 - .6612 ) and then to Retest Break for Buy Position
Long
by Novi_Fibonacci
Yen Surges: Entry Point for USD/JPY Buyers Near 152.00This week, the Japanese Yen is poised to deliver a remarkable performance against the US Dollar. The Yen has surged by over 3% following Japan's intervention to bolster the currency and the Federal Reserve's less hawkish tone. Around 152.00, not only is there a crucial level, but the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is also nearby, along with a long-term ascending trend line just below to provide support. This makes it the perfect entry point for any US Dollar buyer anticipating USD/JPY to head towards 160.00. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against a basket of six foreign currencies, is losing ground around 105.00 as markets step back to avoid being overwhelmed by Japanese interventions. The weaker-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls print in the United States has, in the meantime, pushed USD/JPY below 152.00 and has seen a significant number of US Dollar buyers stepping in to buy the dip at these levels.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Strifor || AUDUSD-30/04/2024Preferred direction: BUY Comment: Before the Fed meeting on major currency pairs, a rather uncertain situation has developed, and the best option will most likely be to refrain from trades and make a decision on entry after the interest rate decision. However, the most likely scenario is in favor of buyers. At the moment, the best option would be to look for an entry point near the support level of 0.64906 . We consider two scenarios near this level, where scenario №1 is about a rebound trade, and scenario №2 - a false breakout. The growth target in both cases is the level of 0.66000 . If, after the Fed , the price falls below the support level of 0.64906 and cannot recover, then you should not count on growth in the medium term. Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
Long
by Strifor
3
Strifor || GBPUSD-Week StartingPreferred direction: BUY Comment: The British currency continues to struggle at the level of 1.25000 , and despite everything, so far everything is working out more in favor of the buyer. The week is filled with events and here, just like in the euro, you need to be ready to change your original plan. The most likely scenario is a breakout of the level of 1.25346 and further growth to the level of 1.26000 (scenario №1). Today, the goals are modest against the backdrop of the upcoming Fed meeting, after this event, in the event of a positive outcome for the main competitors of the US dollar , it will be possible to count on growth to 1.28000 . Scenario №2 will become more active if the US dollar strengthens against the backdrop of upcoming events, but medium-term purchases in this case will be relevant. Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
Long
by Strifor
1
Strifor || EURUSD-Week StartingPreferred direction: BUY Comment: At the beginning of the new week, the euro remains on the buy list, especially if we are talking about the prospect of 1-3 days (before the Fed meeting on Wednesday). This event, as well as the NFP , forces one to be as flexible as possible and be prepared for changes in trading plans at the beginning of this week. Nevertheless, growth is still more likely, but unfortunately, the targets are not as promising as last week. This week, as part of the growth, targets above 1.08000 are not yet being considered. If the dollar's weakness is demonstrated, one can count on growth towards 1.09000 , where there is a large liquidity zone. Two scenarios are considered, where the more likely scenario №1 says about growth near the level of 1.07225 (breakout trade). A less likely scenario №2 is about the strengthening of the US dollar on Wednesday, within which we can expect a fall to the level of 1.06500 . But since technically there is still a possibility of growth to 1.08000 , then in the event of this fall, we can consider going long again according to scenario №2 . Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
Long
by Strifor
1
Pound edges higher as UK Services PMI beats estimateThe British is in positive territory on Friday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2555, up 0.16% at the time of writing. The service sector accelerated in April, as the Services PMI rose to 55.0, up from 53.1 in April. This was the strongest level since May 2023 and services has shown growth for six straight months, with readings above the 50 level. The PMI survey noted that business and consumer spending were higher in April and reflective of an improving UK economy. The positive report has given the British pound a slight boost on Friday. The US labour market has remained surprisingly strong and has weathered the Federal Reserve’s steep rate hikes. The March nonfarm payrolls report sizzled at 303,000, well above expectations. The April data is unlikely to be as strong, but the market forecast of 243,000 would indicate that the labour market remains tight. The markets will be keeping a close eye on wage growth, which contributes to inflation. Wages rose 0.3% m/m in April and are expected to remain unchanged in the April release. The unemployment rate is also expected to remain unchanged at 3.8%. The Federal Reserve reiterated at this week’s meeting that inflation remained too high to lower rates. Still, the markets were relieved that Fed Chair Powell appeared to rule out the next rate move being a rate hike and that sent the US dollar lower against the major currencies. Just one month ago, the markets had fully priced in a rate cut in September but the probability has fallen to 61%, with a 73% probability of a cut in November. GBP/USD tested resistance at 1.2563 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 1.2590 1.2517 and 1.2490 and providing support
by OANDA
Strifor || EURAUD-01/05/2024Preferred direction: SELL Comment: Previous trading ideas for this currency pair worked perfectly, and, as expected, the resistance level of 1.64767 has stopped buyers. At the moment, the probability of resuming the downward movement is high. An increase towards 1.65500 is not excluded within the framework of scenario №2 . However, the more likely scenario №1 involves a fall from current prices with a target at the level of 1.63067 . Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
Short
by Strifor
3
What does a First Fed Rate cut really mean?ANALYSIS ON FED STANCE Powell has consistently indicated that interest rate decisions would hinge on economic data, a stance reaffirmed by the unchanged rates in the latest policy announcement. Despite the Fed's clarification that rate cuts are unlikely until there is more certainty that inflation is consistently heading towards the 2% target, some still question if this is truly a dovish stance. Persistent high inflation has led to adjustments in the market's expectations, now reflecting only a 45% likelihood of a single rate cut by September—down from earlier predictions of three cuts this year. I maintain that even this adjusted forecast is overly optimistic. (drawn and extrapolated on the chart above) Powell emphasized that the Fed requires more than a month or two of data to influence policy changes, pointing out that the data from the most recent quarter has been particularly concerning. This sentiment is reflected in the market's behavior, with rising yields and ongoing corrections in equities. Market volatility remains high, especially around Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements, evidenced by significant selling in both the Nasdaq ( NASDAQ:IXIC ) and NYSE on high trading volumes. In light of these conditions and Powell's recent remarks and the elevated volatility, I've chosen to scale back my market exposure back to nearly 100% cash for about 3 weeks now. WHAT DOES CUTTING RATE REALLY MEAN FOR STOCK MARKET I have calculated all the times when there has been a First Fed Rate Cut and extrapolated the 6-month % change and the 12-month % change following this First Fed Rate Cut. Assuming that this can happen in September (currently about 45% chance that rates will be cut in September based on the CME FedWatch Tool), then I have plotted the results using a black line. This is the average of the 24 times since 1921 that the Fed has made a FIRST rate cut. It is clear that the average scenario is very bullish with an average 12month change around +14-15% on the SP:SPX . However, what is more interesting is that if we look at the times where there is a rate cut without having a recession the scenario becomes very strong. The real concerns of the FED is that we might get reaccelerating in inflation. We are currently in a goldilocks situations, since even though inflation is a little high, the economy is growing and we are not overheating (much better position than EU economies, which are not growing so fast and would have to cut faster). Rates currently are about on average where they would be on a long term 5-year history. This reaccelerating fear is based on events happened before in 1970s and 1980s. You can see in the picture below and what the FED looks to avoid. If you are interested to play with the data, I have made the tool available in my script section. INDICATOR RAW DATA Feel free to use the raw data of the First Fed Rate cut for further analysis below. Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. 05/05/1921 -12.01 9.87 05/01/1924 11.96 33.8 04/23/1926 11.29 12.82 08/05/1927 10.16 14.29 11/04/1929 13.87 -7.96 02/26/1932 -37.46 -29.83 04/07/1933 76.34 81.66 02/05/1954 16.7 39.39 11/15/1957 4.04 28.53 06/10/1960 -6.72 6.00 04/07/1967 8.65 3.64 08/30/1968 2.35 -6.84 11/13/1970 21.26 7.00 11/19/1971 18.61 24.04 12/09/1974 41.76 41.68 05/30/1980 16.75 17.29 11/02/1981 -7.43 16.02 11/21/1984 7.92 21.7 06/06/1989 10.31 17.17 07/06/1995 10.93 22.28 09/29/1998 21.11 26.4 01/03/2001 -4.26 -7.78 09/18/2007 -11.93 -22.78 07/31/2019 7.43 -2.05 Mean 9.9 14.43 Median 10.23 15.16
SP:SPXLong
by SimplerSignals
EUR/USD Finds Stability Amidst Inconclusive Dollar MovementEUR/USD witnessed a significant rebound on Thursday, returning to the upper end of recent consolidation above the 1.0700 level as market sentiment stabilized ahead of another US Nonfarm Payrolls Friday. The pair faces initial resistance at the weekly high of 1.0750, followed by key levels such as the 200-day SMA at 1.0798 and the April peak of 1.0880. On the downside, a break of the 2024 low of 1.060 could indicate a return to the November 2023 low of 1.0510. The uncertain price action of the US dollar led to mixed movements in EUR/USD around the 1.0700 level on Thursday, influenced by investors' reactions to the recent Federal Reserve decision to maintain interest rates stable. The Fed reiterated its stance on the Fed Funds target range and expressed intentions for potential interest rate cuts amid concerns about inflation and economic balance disruptions. Comments from Chairman Jerome Powell also weighed on the dollar, suggesting reluctance towards rate hikes in future monetary policy adjustments. Despite short-term weakness, expectations of a delayed interest rate cut by the Fed could limit the prolonged weakness of the US dollar. Additionally, US yields decreased while the divergence in monetary policies between the Fed and other G10 central banks, particularly the ECB, persisted. The subdued economic fundamentals of the eurozone contrast with the resilience of the US economy, supporting expectations of a stronger dollar in the medium term, especially with the possibility of the ECB cutting rates before the Fed. Consequently, EUR/USD is expected to undergo a more significant decline in the medium term.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
2
USD/JPY slides – did Tokyo intervene?It has been a remarkable week for the yen, which has exhibited sharp swings throughout the week. The Japanese yen fell as much as 1% earlier and on Thursday but has pared most of those losses. USD/JPY has risen 0.38% to 155.19 at the time of writing. Japan suspected of intervention In the Asian session, the yen fell as low as 157.55 but then recovered to precisely 153. The reason for the swing is unclear but there are strong suspicions that Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MoF) ordered another round of intervention. Japan’s top currency official, Masota Kanda, refused to comment on whether Japan had intervened. Kanda was also mum about whether there was intervention on Monday, when the yen spiked and fell below the 160 level before recovering. Money market movements indicate that the MoF did intervene on Monday, selling as much as $35 billion to prop up the yen. The yen’s swings Monday and today could signal that the MoF has targeted 160 as its “line in the sand” for intervention. Fed holds rates, US dollar slips There was no surprise from the Federal Reserve which maintained the benchmark rate in the target range of 5.25% to 5.50% on Wednesday. This marked a six straight pause, as Fed Chair Powell was clear that high inflation has delayed rate cuts. The rate statement said that inflation had fallen in the past year but there was a lack of progress towards the 2% inflation target in recent months. At a press conference, Powell said that the Fed was not yet confident that inflation was falling closer to the target. Consumer inflation has been moving higher and the US economy remains surprisingly strong, which has complicated the Fed’s plan to provide relief to households by lowering rates. Still, the Powell said the next rate move was unlikely to be a hike, which sent the US dollar broadly lower against the majors on Wednesday. The yen soared as much as 3.2% against on the dollar after the rate announcement and closed on Wednesday with gains of 2%. USD/JPY is testing resistance at 155.13. Above, there is resistance at 157.26 There is support at 152.27 and 150.14
by OANDA
Strifor || USDCAD-01/05/2024Preferred direction: SELL Comment: A busy middle of the week, during which we expect large statistics on production and the US labor market, and at the very end we expect the announcement of the Fed interest rate. In addition, we will find out the Fed's prospects for the near future. Against this background, US dollar shorts still look better, at least in the short term. For the USDCAD currency pair, we consider two scenarios that can be found on the chart. We consider two scenarios simultaneously, since volatility is a common phenomenon against the backdrop of such economic events. We consider the target for the fall to be at the level of 1.37020. Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
Short
by Strifor
1
Confirmation of Bear Flag?? - EUHere I have EUR/USD on the 4Hr Chart! Since the LOW on Apr' 16th, Price has been traveling in what looks to be an Ascending Channel! Price today was unable to make a NEW HIGH to give us another test of the Rising Resistance and instead gave us quite the drop out of the Ascending Channel! With this break, I believe multiple confirmations are pointing to this price action being CONFIRMATION of PATTERN being a BEAR FLAG!! -RSI BELOW 50 -Price working BELOW DSR -Price BELOW 200 EMA -3-Point Sell Check Bear Flags are a strong continuation pattern typically giving investors the ability to foresee Selling Opportunities with Price giving a Strong Bearish Break of pattern, then to Test the Break of Pattern which is what I am currently waiting for!! -Once the current LOW has finished forming, I want to see price retrace to the Break of Pattern being in the ( 1.069 - 1.07 ) range for potential Sell Entries! *TP will be the Support Zone last visited in Oct. 2023 @ ( 1.0516 - 1.0462 ) *SL TBD
Short
by Novi_Fibonacci
AUD/USD stabilizes after taking a tumble, Fed nextThe Australian dollar has steadied on Wednesday after sliding 1.4% a day earlier. AUD/USD is up 0.19%, trading at 0.6489 at the time of writing in the North American session. Australian dollar slides after soft retail sales Retail sales in Australia fell 0.4% m/m in March, following a downwardly revised 0.2% gain in February and shy of the market estimate of 0.2%. The decrease in sales was felt across all industries, as consumers held tight to the purse strings. On an annualized basis, retail sales grew by just 0.8% in March, the lowest level since August 2021. The Australian dollar responded with sharp losses to the disappointing retail sales release. China posted soft PMIs which also weighed on the Aussie. The manufacturing PMI eased to 50.4 in April, down from 50.8 and just above the market estimate of 50.3. The services PMI fell to 51.2, compared to 53.0 in March and below the market estimate of 52.2. The data indicates that manufacturing and services are showing little growth, another sign of the slowdown in China, which is Australia’s largest export market. Weaker economic activity in China means less demand for Australian exports, which is weighing on the Australian dollar. Will Powell make a hawkish pivot? The Federal Reserve meets later today, with little doubt that it will maintain interest rates for a sixth straight time. The target range for the benchmark rate of 5.25% to 5.5% hasn’t changed since July and the Fed has shown that it is willing to prolong its “higher for longer” stance as long as is needed. Fed Chair Powell is expected to have a hawkish message for the market, which would likely provide the US dollar with a boost. AUD/USD Technical AUD/USD is putting pressure on resistance at 0.6504. Above, there is resistance at 0.6537 0.6439 and 0.6406 are the next support levels
by OANDA
GBP/USD expected to move lower!The GBP/USD exchange rate shows a lack of direction, hovering below 1.2500 early on Wednesday, amidst US Dollar strength and cautious sentiment ahead of key US employment data and Federal Reserve policy communications. The exchange rate experienced a sharp decline on Tuesday, erasing previous gains amid subdued trading activity due to the closure of European markets for the May Day holiday. US Dollar strength, fueled by better-than-expected Employment Cost Index data, hindered GBP/USD recovery momentum. Market sentiment remains cautious awaiting the release of ADP Employment Change and ISM Manufacturing PMI data for April, with investors awaiting the Fed's monetary policy decision. The Fed is expected to maintain rates at the current level, but any changes in the statement language or hints from Chairman Jerome Powell could influence market sentiment. Currently, markets anticipate a 94% probability of no rate change in June, with a probability of a rate cut in September just below 50%. Powell's comments on inflation and future rate adjustments will be closely monitored, potentially impacting the performance of the US Dollar against the British Pound and other currencies. A dovish stance from Powell could weigh on the US Dollar and support a rebound in GBP/USD, while a hawkish tone could further strengthen the US Dollar and maintain pressure on the exchange rate.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy