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AU Bears "Head" Down to Target .6570Here I have AUD/USD on the Daily Chart! From Friday's High @ .67672 to its Low @ .66597, we can see we get the Confirmation of a strong reversal pattern with the Break of the Neckline of the Head & Shoulders! Now what I'd like to see off the same High and Low of Friday is Price give us a 38.2% Retracement of the Low & Pullback to test the Neckline for potential Sell Entries. ( .67008 - .6697 ) Swing High of Head to Neckline = 126.9 Pips Neckline - 126.9 = .6570 (Target) Fundamentals: AUD's undoing comes from a mix of a rise in Unemployment to 4.2% and Retail Sales ending August coming in @ 0% With the horrible run of jobs reports for the USD to start September, it managed to recover to end the week and give the idea that a 50 bps Rate Cut is less likely sitting at a 30% change and a 25 bps Rate Cut more likely at a 70% chance at the Sept 18th meeting. -RBA Interest Rate sits @ 4.35% -Fed Interest Rate sits @ 5.5% This upcoming week will be VERY news heavy for USD seeing as there is: -Core CPI, CPI m & y on Wednesday, Sept. 11th -Core PPI/ PPI m/m & Unemployment Claims on Thursday, Sept 12th!
Short
by Novi_Fibonacci
NZ dollar drifting ahead of manufacturing dataThe New Zealand dollar is showing little movement on Thursday. NZD/USD is trading at 0.6139 at the time of writing, up 0.05% on the day. New Zealand’s manufacturing sector has been in the doldrums, as the manufacturing PMI has posted 17 consecutive declines. Friday’s PMI is expected to improve to 47 in August, up from 44 in July (a reading below 50 points to contraction). The New Zealand economy has deteriorated and in August the Reserve Bank of New Zealand responded with its first rate cut since March 2020. The RBNZ has joined the club, as most major central banks have lowered rates and the Federal Reserve is poised to do so next week. The RBNZ will be looking to continue lowering rates, as the cash rate of 5.25% remains high and is weighing on economic activity and households. Inflation has dropped to 3.3%, which is close to the target of between 1% and 3%. The central bank meets next on Oct. 9 and there is pressure on the RBNZ to follow up with a second straight rate cut. In the US, today’s inflation numbers were a mix. Headline producer prices rose 1.7% Y/Y in August, following a downwardly revised 2.1% gain in July and just below the market estimate of 1.8%. However, core PPI rose from 2.3% to 2.4%, below the estimate of 2.5%. Today’s PPI data didn’t budge the market pricing of a Fed rate cut, with an 87% probability of a 25-bps cut next week, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Still, not everybody is on board for small cut – JP Morgan is projecting that the Fed will deliver a jumbo 50-bps reduction. NZD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6134. Above, there is resistance at 0.6160 There are support lines at 0.6110 and 0.6084
by OANDA
USD/JPY: Reversal Signal or More Downside? The Japanese yen has tested prices below 141, an eight-month low for the pair. But eventually pulled back above 142. From a technical perspective, this long wick might look to some traders to be the start of a small reversal before its eventual sojourn lower. Rom a fundamental perspective, US Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in a few hours ago lower than expected. Which means the US Federal Reserve might forgo a 50bps cut in favor of a 25bps next week. This might help support the US dollar in the face of yen strength. Now we have US Producer Price Index (PPI) to look forward to on Thursday. The Yen against Euro could be interesting to keep an eye on too in the lead up to the European Central Bank (ECB) decision. On Thursday, the ECB is expected to cut its interest rate to 3.5% from 3.75%.
by BlackBull_Markets
USD/JPY drops below 141, US CPI drops to 2.5%The Japanese yen has extended its gains on Wednesday. USD/JPY fell as low as 140.70, its lowest level this year, before paring much of the losses. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 141.71 at the time of writing, down 0.52% on the day. The hotly-anticipated US inflation report didn’t shake up the markets as it was pretty much as advertised. Headline CPI eased to 2.5% y/y in August, down from 2.9% in July and matching expectations. This was the fifth straight decline in headline inflation. Monthly, CPI was unchanged at 0.2%, in line with the market estimate. Core CPI was unchanged at 3.2% y/y, matching the market estimate. Monthly, the core rate ticked up to 0.3%, up from the July gain of 0.2% and the market estimate of 0.2%. The inflation report comes just one week before the Federal Reserve meeting on Sept. 18. Market rate cut odds have been swinging wildly as it remains unclear whether the Fed will cut by a modest 25 basis points or a jumbo 50-bps cut. The odds of a 50-bps move surged to 59% after the soft nonfarm payroll report on Friday, but were down to 27% just prior to today’s inflation report and have fallen to 15% following the release, according to the CME’s FedWatch. This puts the likelihood of a 25-bps cut at 85%, although we’re likely to see the odds continue to shift in the days ahead. The Bank of Japan meets on Sept. 20, two days after the Fed meeting. The BoJ is looking to continue tightening but will likely stay on the sidelines next week, as BoJ officials have ruled out a rate hike while the financial markets are unsteady. That could mean that the BoJ will push off a rate hike until December or January. USD/JPY tested support at 141.54 earlier. Below, there is support at 140.79 There is resistance at 142.80 and 143.31
by OANDA
GBP/USD AnalysisFundamental Overview: UK Employment Data: The latest employment figures from the UK show a slight improvement in the ILO Unemployment Rate, down to 4.1% from 4.2%, and a significant increase in Employment Change to 265K. However, wage inflation (excluding bonuses) has eased to 5.1% from 5.4%, reflecting slower growth in wages. Although these figures offered some short-term support to GBP/USD, the pair struggled to maintain its gains due to a broader risk-averse sentiment in the market. The UK’s FTSE 100 index is also down, signaling cautious sentiment among investors. US Economic Outlook: The lack of high-impact data from the US economic calendar on Tuesday provides little momentum for GBP/USD to attract buyers. Investors are awaiting Wednesday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for August, which could influence the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy decisions. If the CPI report signals persistent inflationary pressures, it could strengthen the US Dollar further and weigh on GBP/USD. Market Sentiment: The risk-averse atmosphere, likely driven by concerns over global economic conditions, has limited any significant recovery in GBP/USD. This has kept the pair on the back foot, with traders focusing on the upcoming US CPI report as a potential catalyst for the next move. Technical Outlook: Downside Levels: GBP/USD is testing critical support levels as it extends its decline toward 1.3050. The 1.3040 level, which corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the latest uptrend, serves as the next key support. A break below this could push the pair toward 1.3000, a psychological and static level, and further down to 1.2965-1.2970, which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA). Upside Resistance: On the upside, immediate resistance lies at 1.3100 (static level), followed by 1.3130, where the 20, 50, and 100-period SMAs converge with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. A sustained break above 1.3130 could trigger a recovery toward 1.3200, another psychological and static level.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
GBP/USD steady as UK wage growth eases, GDP nextThe British pound has edged lower on Tuesday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3055, down 0.14% on the day. UK wage growth eased in the three months to July, an encouraging sign for the Bank of England as it looks to continue lowering rates. Average earnings excluding bonuses climbed 5.1% y/y, down from 5.4% in the previous period and in line with the market estimate. This was the lowest level since June 2022. Wage growth is moving in the right direction but is still much too high for the BoE’s liking as it is incompatible with the target of keeping inflation at 2%. The UK labour market remains strong, as the unemployment rate edged down to 4.1%, down from 4%. The economy created 265 thousand jobs in the three months to July, up sharply from 97 thousand in the previous report and blowing past the market estimate of 115 thousand. The solid data means that the BoE isn’t under pressure to cut rates next week, and the markets are looking at another cut in November. The UK economy gets a report card on Wednesday, with the release of GDP for July. The economy flatlined in June and rose just 0.6% in the three months to June. Another weak GDP release could put pressure on the British pound. Investors will be keeping a close eye on Wednesday’s US inflation release. The Federal Reserve is now focused on employment now that inflation is between 2% and 3%, but a CPI surprise could shake up the markets and change market pricing for a Fed rate cut. The odds of a 50-basis point cut have been slashed to 29%, compared to 59% on Friday. There is resistance at 1.3167 and 1.3225 1.3069 and 1.3011 are providing support
by OANDA
Gold Market Analysis: Fed Speculation and Dollar StrengthFundamental Overview: US Dollar Strength and Interest Rate Speculations: Gold’s price movement is currently influenced by the strength of the US Dollar, driven by shifting expectations regarding interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed). Following the release of mixed US labor market data, investor bets on a 50 basis points (bps) rate cut in September have decreased. The probability of such a cut is now seen at 29%, down from 47% before the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. This shift in expectations has strengthened the US Dollar, putting pressure on non-yielding assets like gold. Safe-Haven Demand and Global Concerns: Despite the downward pressure from the stronger dollar, concerns over a slowdown in China’s economy have increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold. The precious metal remains supported as a hedge against risk during times of economic uncertainty. Moreover, rising US Treasury yields contribute to gold’s struggles, as higher yields make other assets more attractive compared to non-yielding gold. Upcoming Inflation Data: All eyes are on the upcoming US inflation data, which could significantly impact gold’s price movements. Inflation is a key indicator for the Fed’s future rate decisions, and any surprises in the data could trigger volatility in both the US Dollar and gold. If inflation comes in higher than expected, it could dampen the prospects for aggressive Fed rate cuts, further pressuring gold. Fed’s Blackout Period: The Fed has entered its “blackout period” ahead of the September 18th policy decision, meaning there will be no further communication from central bankers. This leaves gold trading in a familiar range, awaiting clearer direction from inflation data and the upcoming Fed decision. Outlook and Key Events: Bullish Scenario: If gold manages to hold the $2,499 support level and breaks through the $2,532 resistance, it could extend gains towards $2,550. Bearish Scenario: If gold fails to defend the $2,499 level, it could drop to $2,472 and potentially $2,461. A further strengthening of the dollar and rising yields would exert additional bearish pressure.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
EUR/USD Analysis: Fundamental and Technical OutlookFundamental Overview: Eurozone Inflation: Recent inflation data from the eurozone points toward expectations of an interest rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB). This could weigh on the euro in the medium term, as lower interest rates generally reduce the currency's appeal by offering lower yields for investors. US Economic Data: The August jobs report revealed weaker-than-expected growth in the private sector, with only 99,000 jobs added compared to the forecast of 145,000. This contributed to the US dollar’s weakness. US Monetary Policy: Current market expectations suggest a 43% probability of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve. This factor weakens the dollar further, but a shift in sentiment based on economic data could reverse the trend. Technical Analysis: Resistance Levels: 1.1160 serves as the first key resistance level, followed by 1.1200, which marks the endpoint of the latest uptrend. If the rally continues, 1.1250 becomes the next target for buyers. Support Levels: If EUR/USD falls below 1.1100, it could trigger bearish pressure. The next significant support lies at 1.1040 .
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
Can Inflation Shift the Fed’s Rate Path? This week’s inflation data could be decisive for traders as markets weigh whether the Fed will cut rates by 25 or 50 basis points. Last week’s jobs report did not sway the market from its current consensus. The US economy added 142,000 jobs in August 2024, falling short of the expected 160,000, based on the latest NFP data. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of a 25-bps rate cut climbed to 73%, while expectations for a 50-bps cut dropped to 27%. Attention now turns to inflation, with consumer prices expected to fall to 2.6%—the lowest since March 2021—and producer prices anticipated to rise 0.2% month-over-month. Key USD pairs to watch this week include EUR/USD, with the ECB's upcoming interest rate decision in focus. Additionally, pairs impacted by inflation data releases from Mexico, Brazil, Russia, and India could see significant movement.
by BlackBull_Markets
EUR/USD dips after US payrolls misses estimateThe euro has edged lower on Friday. EUR/USD is trading at 1.1088 in the North American session at the time of writing, down 0.20%. Today’s US nonfarm payrolls wasn’t a disaster but certainly nothing to smile about. The economy created 142 thousand new jobs in August, better than the July gain of 114 thousand but short of the market estimate of 160 thousand. The unemployment rate ticked lower to 4.2%, in line with expectations and a shade below the market estimate of 4.3%. The US dollar hasn’t shown much reaction to the employment report. However, expectations for an oversize 50-basis point cut from the Federal Reserve in September have shot up to 59%, up from 43% prior to the nonfarm payrolls release, according to CME’s FedWatch. Had nonfarm payrolls beaten expectations, it likely would have cemented a 25-bps cut. The soft reading means that the Fed meeting is live, with investors unsure about the size of the expected rate cut. The US will release CPI and retail sales before the Fed meeting and any surprises from these releases could impact on the rate decision. Germany’s economy continues to flounder, which doesn’t bode well for the eurozone economy. German industrial production, released today, declined 2.4% m/m in July, down from a 1.7% gain in June and shy of the market estimate of -0.3%. Manufacturing declined across the board and the automotive sector was especially weak. Yearly, industrial output declined by 5.3% in July, compared to a 3.7% decline in June. The European Central Bank meets on Sept. 12 and is widely expected to trim rates after an initial cut in July. Inflation has been tamed and is close to the 2% target and the eurozone economy is struggling. The ECB wants to avoid a recession and a rate cut would provide a boost to the economy and provide relief for consumers. EUR/USD is testing support at 1.1082. Below, there is support at 1.1044 There is resistance at 1.1119 and 1.1102
by OANDA
Yen extends gains on solid wage growth, consumer spending nextThe Japanese yen has posted gains on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 143.27 at the time of writing, down 0.33% on the day. The yen continues to pummel the US dollar and is up 1.9% this week. Since July 1, the yen has surged a massive 10.7%. Average cash earnings in Japan rose 3.6% y/y in July, down from 4.5% in June, which was the highest since January 1997. Still, this beat the market estimate of 3.1%. Wages are a key factor as to how soon the Bank of Japan could raise interest rates. Inflation has been moving higher but the BoJ wants to see increased wage growth as well in order to achieve the Bank’s target of sustainable inflation at 2%. Japanese firms agreed to a huge wage increase of 5.1% for 2024 and this is being reflected in solid wage growth. Japan’s economy is showing signs of recovery and consumers are opening their wallets. Household spending will be released early Friday and is expected to rebound with a gain of 1.2% y/y in July, following a 1.4% decline in June. In the US, all eyes are on Friday’s employment report, specifically nonfarm payrolls. After a lower-than-expected gain of 114 thousand in July, the markets expect a gain of 160 thousand in August. The weak July numbers triggered a meltdown in the financial markets and investors remain uneasy. The Federal Reserve is poised to deliver a milestone rate cut on Sept. 18. The likelihood of a 25 bps cut stands at 61% and a 50 bps cut at 39%, according to CME’s FedWatch and these odds could change after the US employment report. USD/JPY has pushed below support at 143.57 and tested support at 142.91 earlier There is resistance at 144.10 and 144.76
by OANDA
AUD/USD sinks ahead of GDPThe Australian dollar is sharply lower on Tuesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6732 in the European session, down 0.88% today at the time of writing. Australia’s economy has been sputtering and the markets aren’t expecting much change from second-quarter GDP on Wednesday. GDP is expected to trickle lower to 1% y/y, down from 1.1% in Q1, which was the weakest pace of growth since Q4 2020. Quarterly, the market estimate for GDP stands at 0.3%, compared to 0.1% in Q1. GDP-per-capita is expected to be negative, another indication that economic activity remains subdued. Australia has been hit by a drop in iron ore and core prices and exports fell by 4.4% in the second quarter, which doesn’t bode well for the Australian dollar. The GDP is unlikely to change the Reserve Bank of Australia’s plans when it meets on Sept. 24. The central bank is closely watching inflation, which remains stubbornly high, as well as the labor market. Governor Bullock has said she has no plans to lower the cash rate from its current 4.35% for the next six months. The RBA has stuck to its “higher for longer” stance and has maintained rates since November. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to lower rates on September 18, with a 70% likelihood of a quarter-point cut and a 31% likelihood of a half-point cut. Ahead of the meeting is a crucial employment report on Friday. The previous jobs report was much weaker than expected and triggered a meltdown in the financial markets. Another weak jobs report would raise the likelihood of a half-point cut, while a solid release will cement a quarter-point cut. AUD/USD has pushed below support at 0.6780 and is testing support at 0.6737. Below, there is support at 0.6708 0.6809 and 0.6852 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
Will the dollar bounce back from its current decline? The US July PCE was in line with market consensus. Headline PCE prices rose 0.2% from a month ago and 2.5% from a year ago, which aligns with market expectations. Core PCE, the Fed's price benchmark, rose only 0.16%, slower than the previous month's 0.18%. This is the lowest level this year and has catalyzed the market sentiment of the Fed’s rate cut. It is worth noting that despite a 0.3% increase in personal income, surpassing the previous month's 0.2%, the savings rate remains alarmingly low. This is because personal consumption expenditures are growing at a faster rate than personal income. The current savings rate has dropped to 2.9%, marking only the second instance in the past 16 years, since the global financial crisis, the savings rate has fallen to the 2% range. This implies that consumption in the United States could decline quickly, serving as a cautionary signal that if employment falters, there may be insufficient buffers to sustain consumption. DXY sustained its uptrend after breaking out of the descending channel and advanced to 101.60. The price consolidates around the 101.50-101.70 range, waiting for an additional price trigger. If the price breaches the resistance at 101.80 while holding above the EMA, the price may gain upward momentum toward 102.60. Conversely, if DXY fails to stay above both EMAs and retreats to the support at 100.50, the price could fall further to the 100.00 threshold.
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by inkicho_exness
AUD/USD – Australian retail sales flat, Aussie shrugsThe Australian dollar continues to have a quiet week. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6804 in the European session, up 0.09% today at the time of writing. Consumer spending in Australia has been weak, which has chilled economic activity. Retail sales for July didn’t provide any relief with a reading of zero, shy of the market estimate of 0.3% and well off the June gain of 0.5%. Consumers continue to feel squeezed by elevated interest rates and the high cost of living. The weak economy and a cooling labor market are making consumers even more cautious about discretionary spending. Will today’s soft data prod the Reserve Bank of Australia to consider a rate cut? The RBA is frustrated with the slow decline in inflation - Governor Bullock has said that the central bank is unlikely to cut for six months and RBA members have been discussing a possible rate hike at recent meetings. The markets are marching to a different tune and have priced in a rate cut in November with more cuts early next year. The remaining tier-1 events ahead of the Sept. 24 policy meeting are GDP and the employment report and both releases will be important factors in the rate decision. If these numbers are weaker than supported, it would support the case for a rate cut before year’s end. The week wraps up with the US Core PCE Price index, considered the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator. The markets are expecting a small increase in July – from 2.5% to 2.6% y/y and 0.1% to 0.2% m/m. A small move is unlikely to concern the Fed, which has shifted its focus to the weakening labor market now that the battle with inflation is largely over. AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6808. Above, there is resistance at 0.6822 0.6776 and 0.6754 are providing support
by OANDA
EUR/USD - ECB eyeing German, eurozone CPIThe euro has extended its decline on Thursday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1095 at the time of writing, down 0.22% on the day. The US dollar has rebounded against the euro this week, climbing 0.89%. Inflation is expected to ease in Germany and the eurozone, which could have significant impact on the European Central Bank rate announcement on Sept. 12. Inflation declined in German states and the national harmonized inflation rate is expected to fall to 2.1% y/y in August, down from 2.3% in July. The eurozone releases CPI on Friday. The market estimate for CPI stands at 2.2%, compared to 2.6% in July. The core inflation rate is expected to creep lower to 2.8%, down from 2.9% in July. A drop in inflation in Germany and the eurozone would support the case for another rate reduction next month. The weak eurozone economy and the fact that the Federal Reserve is also poised to lower rates have strengthened the case to cut rates. At the same time, concern about wage increases is a reason for the ECB to hold off on cutting rates. The Federal Reserve is poised to cut rates next month, which would mark the US central bank joining in the global trend of central banks lowering rates now that the threat of inflation has largely abated. Most FOMC members have come out in favor of a September cut but Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Wednesday that the Fed should wait for additional data before lowering rates as it would be a mistake to cut and then have to hike again. EUR/USD is testing support at 1.1087. Below, there is support at 1.1055 There is resistance at 1.1138 and 1.1170
by OANDA
Knock Knock. Who's There? Vibecession Ft. US Interest RatesHello Everyone, IMPORTANT: ALL FED POLICIES LEAD TO NEGATIVE OUTCOMES TLDR AT THE END In February 2022 the Federal Reserve gave us the fastest rate raising campaign in history to try and combat very high inflation, but they were very late in raising rates causing one of the worst inflation in 40 years. During his speech at Jackson Hole he confirms rate cuts in September due to inflation being under control and the labor market "cooling." Good news is inflation is under control, however this is only the start of our labor market "cooling." Jerome Powell is extremely late in cutting rates and will be cutting rates because we are getting BAD economic data and the cracks are showing in our labor market, commercial real estate, and banking sectors. The Federal Reserve 100% KNOWS a recession is coming that is why they are cutting rates. We have Jerome Powell come up on stage sweet talk to us about a soft landing, inflation under control, and how he will cut rates to help the labor market. He's not going to be instilling fear in Americans as a chairman. Just Remember, ALL FED POLICIES LEAD TO NEGATIVE OUTCOMES. Recession is coming, Sahm rule and inverted yield curve hasn't been wrong and it won't be wrong this time. This time it's not different. TLDR: Jerome Powell is too late in cutting rates causing a recession
ECONOMICS:USINTR
by justaturboman44
1
Analysis of the Dollar Index (DXY)Overview: On Tuesday, the Dollar Index (DXY) showed weak performance, failing to consolidate the partial recovery seen on Monday after last week's sharp decline. Although the dollar posted gains against major Asian currencies, such as the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Korean Won (KRW), these gains were quickly erased during the US trading session. The return of a "risk-on" sentiment in the markets, with stock indices rising in Asia, Europe, and US futures, has led investors to move away from safe-haven assets, further weighing on the dollar. Fundamental Factors: Market Sentiment: The return of the "risk-on" sentiment has favored riskier assets at the expense of the US dollar. The easing of tensions in the Middle East has helped reduce flows into safe-haven assets, exerting bearish pressure on the DXY. Economic Data: On Tuesday, attention will be focused on the weekly mortgage applications data published by the MBA and the EIA's report on US crude oil inventories. Additionally, the speech by Federal Reserve's Waller could provide further insight into the direction of US monetary policy. Currency Performance: The EUR/USD has resumed its bullish trend, partially erasing the weakness seen at the start of the week. The British pound (GBP/USD) reached over two-year highs, supported by expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will not cut rates as much as the markets anticipated. Commodities and Precious Metals: WTI saw a sharp decline, breaking a three-day winning streak due to renewed demand concerns and some profit-taking. Gold prices alternated between gains and losses above the $2,500 per ounce mark, while silver prices remained near the $30.00 per ounce level.
TVC:DXYLong
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
USD/JPY: Limited Recovery Below 145.00!General Overview: USD/JPY remains near 145.00 in the Asian session on Tuesday, despite a cautious market environment. The pair benefits from the recent rebound of the US Dollar and higher US Treasury yields. However, the divergence in monetary policies between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) continues to be a key factor that could influence the pair’s movement in the coming days. Fundamental Factors: Japanese Macroeconomic Data: Japan's recent GDP growth in the second quarter exceeded expectations, strengthening the case for a possible interest rate hike by the BoJ. This temporarily strengthened the Japanese Yen (JPY), contributing to the downward pressure on USD/JPY. Monetary Policy and the Fed: The US Dollar found support from higher US Treasury yields, but expectations of a rate cut by the Fed in September limit the upside potential. Specifically, the debate is focused on a possible 25 basis point cut, with a 60% probability, while there is still a 36% chance of a more significant 50 basis point cut, according to CME FedWatch.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
USDJPY Vulnerable on Monetary Policy DynamicsThe pair is heading towards its second straight losing month, due to the shift in monetary policy dynamics, which could fuel further losses and new 2024 lows towards 140.26. Chair Powell offered the strongest signal to date of a September pivot, bolstering market optimism for multiple rate cuts ahead. The bank of Japan is on the opposite direction, trying to make policy less loose. Stepping up its effort, it raised rates for second time in this cycle and pointed to more moves, while Governor Ueda stack to script last week. On the other hand, Mr Powell did not offer any insights around the size and pace of rate cuts, while market pricing for four moves this year is stretched. The BoJ’s latest rate hike meanwhile sparked volatility and forced the bank to pledge to not hike again while markets are unstable. Furthermore, the rate differential will still be wide even if the BoJ hikes again and the Fed cuts more than once. As such, a recovery effort would not be surprising, but the EMA200 (black line) and the 38.2% Fibonacci of the recent slump can cap the upside. Sustained strength above this resistance confluence does not easy under the current policy dynamics. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”) (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Short
by FXCM