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USD/CAD muted after mixed retail sales reportThe Canadian dollar is drifting on Friday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3468, down 0.1%. With no tier-1 events on the data calendar, we can expect a quiet day for the Canadian dollar. Canada’s retail sales report on Friday was a mixed bag. Consumers sharply reduced their spending in January following better-than-expected retail sales in December. Let’s start with the good news. The end of 2023 saw strong consumer spending, with a gain of 0.9% m/m in December, revised upwards from 0.7% and beating the market estimate of 0.8%. The increase was led by higher sales for motor vehicles, fuel and food. In the fourth quarter, retail sales rose by a respectable 1%. The news was not nearly as positive in January. The preliminary estimate of -0.4% m/m points to a sharp pullback in consumer spending. The slowdown in retail activity in January could continue as more householders renew their mortgages at higher rates, leaving less money for discretionary spending. The Bank of Canada has repeatedly stated that rate decisions will be data-dependent, and we’ll have to wait and see what BoC policy makers make of the mixed retail sales release. Canada releases December GDP next week, followed by the BOC rate decision on February 29. Three top Federal Reserve officials reiterated on Thursday that the Fed is planning to lower interest rates this year but not just yet. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and Governors Lisa Cook and Christopher Waller said that inflation was headed in the right direction but urged patience. In December, the markets had priced in a rate cut in March at over 70% but that has dissipated to just 2.5% currently, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The strong US economy and constant pushback from the Fed against rate cuts in March have forced the markets to look ahead. Investors have currently priced in a 65% chance of a rate cut in June, compared to 74% just one week ago. USD/CAD is testing support at 1.3477. Below, there is support at 1.3446 1.3514 and 1.3545 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
EURNZD: Reversal Perspective & Technical AnalysisEURNZD has a bearish structure supported by a descending channel, with a high registered at 1.7935 on January 22nd. Currently, the price is in the H4 demand zone. I expect a possible trend reversal, with a change in structure to the upside on M15 followed by a retest in the BOS impulse zone. In this case, if the market follows this scenario, I would enter a long position during the retest only if the price does so within one of my three market entry timings. My target would be the level 1.7701, where there is a swing high with liquidity yet to be absorbed on H4. Greetings and happy trading to everyone from Nicola.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
EURUSD | Long to 1.10: Seizing Liquidity Surge!EUR/USD maintains modest daily gains just below 1.0800 in Friday's American session. The US dollar struggles to gain strength following the downward revision of December's CPI, allowing the pair to advance. However, EUR/USD fails to sustain its bullish momentum after a two-day bounce and continues to move sideways below 1.0800 as investors look for new catalysts. Cautious comments from ECB officials continue to support the euro. In the United States, the only significant event on Monday will be the Monthly Budget Statement for January. Meanwhile, the USD Index is in a consolidation phase after Monday's strong rebound. In Europe, Economic Sentiment for Germany and the eurozone is expected on February 13. EUR/USD ends the week with a positive balance, while GBP/USD appears to encounter resistance around 1.2650. In Japan, Producer Price Index and Industrial Production data are expected on February 13. USD/JPY approaches 150.00. In Australia, the Westpac Consumer Confidence Index kicks off the week, while AUD/USD remains uncertain around 0.6500. In essence, the dollar remains weak, but the signals on EUR/USD are clear and defined. The price has surpassed the downtrend line at the 1.0840 level and tested it again on Friday, this time at 1.0730, before taking liquidity below December's daily low. I expect further retracement to the 1.0700 level before witnessing a possible recovery towards the 1.10 zone. I will keep you updated on the evolving situation. Best regards and happy trading to all.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
10
XAUUSD | The return to $1900 is getting closer!The price of gold has seen a decline below $2,030, after reaching $2,040 in response to recent changes in inflation trends in the United States. Meanwhile, the yield of the main ten-year US government bond remains steadily above 4.1%, creating hurdles for the XAU/USD currency pair in seeking positive momentum. Currently, the price of gold (XAU/USD) is in a consolidation phase, remaining within a trading range already evident since the beginning of the week. Stronger macroeconomic data from the United States, along with assertive comments from various influential members of the FOMC, indicate that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain high interest rates for an extended period. This situation, coupled with growing confidence in "risk" in global stock markets, poses a significant obstacle for gold, traditionally considered a safe haven. Investors remain awaiting the upcoming US consumer inflation data, which could provide crucial insights into the timing and potential frequency of Fed rate cuts in 2024. Downward revisions to December's monthly inflation data, from 0.3% to 0.2%, will help shape the Fed's future decisions. The Fed's readiness to lower interest rates will directly impact the price of gold, reducing its opportunity cost as a non-profitable asset. Currently, the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut in May, according to the CME FedWatch tool, stands at 51%. The Fed, in considering rate cuts, continues to closely monitor its dual mandate of inflation control and employment promotion. In the context of the US labor market, weekly initial jobless claims data indicate a positive trend, with a steady decrease. Uncertainty about future Fed rate cuts is leading to increased use of the US Dollar by market operators. Personally, I anticipate further liquidation below $2,007, following the downward trend supported by the channel outlined in the chart, followed by a rally up to retest the $2,054 trendline, then a decline towards the $1,920 level. Wishing everyone a good weekend, Nicola.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
3
USOIL | Downward to $73.50 before touching $80The price of WTI oil maintains an upward direction after Israel rejected Hamas' ceasefire agreement. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the benchmark for U.S. crude oil, rose by 0.25% towards the end of the North American session, while the conflict between Israel and Hamas intensified with Israel rejecting a ceasefire offer. On Friday, the Israeli army continued its offensive in the Gaza Strip, resulting in a 3% increase in oil prices compared to the previous day. Additionally, refinery closures in the United States led to higher gasoline and diesel prices. Ukraine's attacks on two oil refineries in southern Russia, and the latter exceeding its plans for crude oil exports in February compared to the agreement with OPEC+, favored the increase in WTI prices. WTI Price Analysis: Technical Outlook Oil prices are expected to remain within a range but tilted downwards, as the 200-day moving average (DMA) at $77.29 remains the first resistance level for prices. A breach of the latter could pave the way for further gains towards $80.00 per barrel. However, despite the bullish trend, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has maintained a flat slope, and strong resistance could lead to challenging the 20-day DMA at $74.53. A breach of the latter will expose the recent swing low at $71.46. Currently, with the daily closure of a bearish candle, specifically a doji at the 0.70% Fibonacci level, a downturn is expected to the $73.30 level, where the price could find support and then continue the bullish trend with the goal of reaching the $80 level, i.e., surpassing the buying liquidity level at $79.78. Greetings and have a good start to the week everyone.
TVC:USOILLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
2
USD/CAD: Upsurge with US CPI Data and Canadian EmploymentThe USD/CAD exchange rate is gaining momentum for the second consecutive day during the early Asian session on Wednesday. This increase is supported by the US January Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data, which is boosting the US Dollar and government bond yields. The Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose by 3.9%, surpassing the market consensus of 3.7%. On a monthly basis, both the CPI and the Core CPI increased by 0.3% and 0.4% respectively. Canadian labor market data was surprisingly strong, with an increase of 37,000 jobs that more than doubled forecasts. A healthier labor market outlook could persuade the Bank of Canada (BoC) to delay interest rate cuts until June rather than April. Governor Tiff Macklem stated that the central bank has shifted its focus from debating whether interest rates are high enough to how long the central bank should keep rates at current levels. Retail Sales and Producer Price Index (PPI) data are scheduled for Thursday and Friday respectively. These data could provide a clear direction for the USD/CAD exchange rate. On a daily basis, the price is approaching a reversal zone marked on the chart. On February 12th, the market retraced to a very physiological level at 1.3427 before starting a rally. Today, the price may dip slightly before continuing its bullish run, breaking out of the reversal zone and subsequently retesting it, with a target at 1.3740. Best regards and happy trading to everyone.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
USOIL is approaching $80!The price of Western Texas Intermediate crude oil, the benchmark for US oil, was around $77.50 on Friday. WTI prices rose after weaker-than-expected US retail sales data, fueling hopes that the Federal Reserve will soon begin cutting interest rates in the coming months. The conflict in Gaza between Israel and Palestinian Hamas has yet to see a resolution or significant progress toward a negotiated ceasefire, keeping energy markets nervous about potential spillover into neighboring oil-producing nations like Iran. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) firmly believes that global demand for crude oil will continue to grow over the next two decades, but this perspective is challenged by the International Energy Agency (IEA), which forecasts a decline in global demand in the coming months. The IEA's forecasts predict a slowdown in the growth of global crude oil demand to 1.22 million barrels per day, while OPEC forecasts a long-term increase of more than double that figure. From a technical standpoint, WTI saw its highest bids in nearly three weeks on Friday, testing $78.40 before concluding the week's trading near $78.20 at Friday's close. On the H4 chart, the price is within an upward channel that seems to support the price rally well. However, I expect a slight retracement towards the $75 area, bouncing off the Fibonacci physiological level before heading back towards $80, breaking through the first supply zone and using the second as a resistance level. Nevertheless, the price has good potential to return to November 2023 levels. Regards and happy trading to all.
TVC:USOILLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
3
EURUSD | Will a new rate hike arrive in September?The EUR/USD exchange rate showed a recovery above 1.0750, after touching a daily low near 1.0730 during the American session. This movement was influenced by data from the United States, which indicated an increase in producer inflation in January, higher than expected, and a marginal improvement in consumer confidence in early February. Nevertheless, the EUR/USD remains in a consolidation phase above 1.0750 on Friday, after closing positively in the two previous days. Mixed releases of macroeconomic data from the United States and a positive change in risk sentiment made it difficult for the US Dollar (USD) to maintain its position, allowing the EUR/USD to extend its recovery. Retail sales in the United States fell by 0.8% on a monthly basis in January, while weekly unemployment claims dropped to 212,000 from 220,000. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are currently pricing in a close to 70% probability that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will leave interest rates unchanged at the next two monetary policy meetings. Additionally, the euro (EUR) showed a retracement after hitting a new two-day high, as a measure of producer inflation in the United States (US) suggests that the work of the United States Federal Reserve is not yet finished. The EUR/USD fluctuated around the range 1.0770-1.0730 after the PPI data, then stabilizing at current exchange rates. Furthermore, on the European Central Bank front, there was an observation by a member of the Executive Board, Isabel Schnabel, about the need for a restrictive monetary policy, given concerns about a possible inflation rebound. Analyzing an H4 chart, it is evident that the price is in a reversal zone (previous demand zone), within a downtrend channel, I have identified a possible turning point at the level of 1.0824 where the price could rotate and reverse its route towards the level of 1.0650 and the level of 1.0520, the November 2023 minimum. We will see how the price will react during the week and how the operators' sentiment towards the Fed will be. I wish everyone a good weekend, regards Nicola.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
5
USD/JPY: Profitable Strategies in Market TurbulenceThe Japanese yen has strengthened slightly in response to verbal intervention by Japanese authorities. The daily chart shows an upward movement of the pair, with 151.00 as the next resistance level, followed by last year's high of 151.91. USD/JPY reached a three-month peak at 150.81 after the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported further confirmation that inflation remains above 3%, albeit slowing down. January's inflation rate exceeded expectations, rising by 3.1% compared to the previous month's 3.4%. Excluding volatile elements, Core CPI remained steady at 3.9% compared to the previous month. Following this data, USD/JPY continued its rise, surpassing 150.00, supported by US Treasury yields. The CME FedWatch indicates that traders seem to be ignoring the possibility of rate cuts in March and May, focusing instead on June. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan has shown uncertainty regarding its monetary policy. Although the data suggest potential sustained inflation, uncertainty persists. The Bank of Japan may delay its exit from negative rates. Japanese authorities are ready to intervene in the foreign exchange market if necessary, as reiterated by Masato Kanda and Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki. The CPI index in the United States exceeded expectations, prompting investors to reconsider their plans for rate cuts and market intervention. We will see what the upcoming data reveal; in the meantime, happy trading to all.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
GBP/AUD is expected to reach the level of 1.9440GBP/AUD presents a bullish structure on H4. After the increase in unemployment demand data for Great Britain, the market gained strength by breaking through a supply zone now turned reversal zone, where I now expect a retracement before continuing the uptrend with the target of the supply zone at the level of 1.9440. At that level, two scenarios can be evaluated: a bullish one with the breakout of the zone and the retest before continuing towards 1.96, and a second bearish scenario where a breakout of the bullish trendline is expected with a retest on the lower side of the reversal zone and a continuation short towards 1.92. Stay tuned for further updates, greetings, and happy trading to all.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
2
GBP/USD: Impact of UK Inflation and Recovery OutlookGBP/USD has lost its traction and dropped to its lowest level in over a week, near 1.2550, following weak inflation data in the UK on Wednesday. Bank of England Governor Bailey stated that inflation data hadn't really changed their outlook since the February monetary policy decision. After closing in negative territory on Tuesday, GBP/USD continued to decline in Wednesday's European session and touched its lowest level in over a week below 1.2550. The short-term technical outlook suggests that the pair still has room to fall before becoming technically overbought. January's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data triggered a rally in the US dollar during Tuesday's American trading hours and caused a sharp drop in GBP/USD. On a monthly basis, both CPI and Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased by 0.3% and 0.4% respectively. Both of these figures exceeded analyst estimates and boosted the US dollar. Wednesday morning, the UK's Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that the annual CPI inflation and core CPI inflation remained steady at 4% and 5.1% respectively. CPI decreased by 0.6% in January, while the monthly Consumer Price Index fell by 0.3%. Although these data aren't weak enough to prompt Bank of England policymakers to consider a policy change, they still make it difficult for the Pound to recover. Inflation is expected to fall to target by spring. What happens to inflation in spring won't determine monetary policy. UK debt demand is strong, has been strong since the beginning of the year. Overall, the situation for the Pound isn't the best considering a likely seasonal dollar rally towards the end of February and March. On the daily chart, a downtrend channel is noticeable after a retest in the supply zone and Fibonacci level 0.705, while I await a breakout of the demand zone at levels 1.2549 and 1.2448, then a retest on the lower side of the same zone and subsequently a bounce at level 1.2320, where we have an additional demand zone and a sensitive Fibonacci level. Upon reaching that level, it will be interesting to evaluate potential upward movement. Greetings and happy trading to all.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
2
GBPNZD: Will it have the force to go long? YESThe GBPNZD situation presents a bearish structure, highlighted by three recent touches on the trendline. However, it currently sits within a demand zone on H4, where yesterday I observed a bounce at the 62% Fibonacci level, supported by an H4 candle. This bounce, in my opinion, is worthy of consideration. Shortly after, the market experienced an uptick, also supported by the demand zone, with a structural change to the upside on M15. If we had entered the position yesterday, the trade would still be open and showing a modest profit. Currently, the goal is to await a retest of the demand zone before transitioning from an H4 to an M15 chart, where I will assess whether there will be a structural change to the upside for a long entry. Additionally, I will move my entry directly to the market if the last bearish candle before the impulse shows a pin bar or a doji. Otherwise, if it's a bearish structure candle, I will place a buy limit at the high of that candle. In the event this scenario occurs, my target will be the 2.0952 level, where a previous high with liquidity yet to be filled is located. I will keep you updated on the situation's developments. Best regards and happy trading to everyone from Nicola.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
NASDAQ: Is it time to go short?Analyzing the NASDAQ, we see several significant factors. The quote is approaching weekly highs, and the performance over the last five days is positive, with a 0.35% increase, indicating strength in the market. However, the volatility over the last five sessions is higher than the three-month average, signaling a period of uncertainty and fluctuations. Nevertheless, both in the previous semester and in the last twenty sessions, a bullish price trend is observed, suggesting a positive long-term trend. Looking at support and resistance levels, the main support area is at 17480.0, while the resistance area is at 18040.0. A potential trend change could occur with a drop below the support area at 17040.0, indicating a possible reversal of the bullish trend. The net speculative positions of traders on NASDAQ 100 futures have decreased compared to the previous week, reflecting some uncertainty among operators about future market prospects. Monitoring the performance of the bond market is crucial, as an increase could shift demand towards bonds at the expense of stocks. Currently, the annual yield of the US ten-year treasury is increasing, which could influence the technical analysis of the NASDAQ. Furthermore, a more detailed analysis at the H4 timeframe level reveals that the market is oscillating around a supply area, suggesting the possibility of a structural change. An approach could be to wait for a change at M15 and then consider entry on the retest of an M15 supply area, with a target at 17560. If the price closes completely outside the M15 supply area, it could change the perspective, requiring further confirmation before deciding on operations. In conclusion, although the NASDAQ shows signs of strength in the short term, it is essential to evaluate volatility and support/resistance levels. Trader positions and the performance of the bond market provide further insights into market sentiment and future prospects. Greetings and happy trading to all.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Smart Money Orderflow M15 ApproachIn this context, we define an intelligent order flow, which is a convergence of flows, in this case, downwards, leading the price to create congestions, i.e., internal breaks, and then consolidation phases, i.e., external breaks, which bring the price into the demand zone, where we should consider opening a long position subsequently. The pattern is clear: demand zone on H4 after a defined structural change with the main consolidation phase, and then we expect a retest in the demand zone, where it is highly likely that the price may reverse its direction, especially when analyzing the market from an M15 perspective. I remain available for further clarifications, greetings, and happy studying to all.
Education
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Australian dollar rebounds, employment data loomsThe Australian dollar is in positive territory on Wednesday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6488, up 0.54%. The Australian currency slid 1.18% on Tuesday, following the stronger-than-expected US inflation report. The Australian dollar suffered its worst one-day performance on Monday since October 2023, sinking 1.16%. This was due to the US inflation report, which fell from 3.4% to 3.1% but was higher than the market estimate of 2.9%. Core CPI remained unchanged at 3.9%, above the market estimate of 3.7%. The markets reacted to the inflation reading by paring expectations of a March rate cut to just 4%, compared to 16% prior to the report, according to the CME FedWatch tool. In December, the odds of a rate cut in March were above 70%, but strong US data and the Fed’s pushback against a March cut have virtually wiped out the chances of a March move. The markets have fully priced in an initial cut in June but if the economy shows signs of weakness, a May cut is also possible. Australia releases January employment data on Thursday. The economy lost 65,100 jobs in December, with full-time employment sliding by a massive 106,600, as part-time jobs rose 41,400. We should see a rebound from these very soft numbers, with the market estimate for employment change standing at 30,000. The reading could have a significant impact on interest rate policy, as the central bank has said that its rate decisions will be data-dependent. Australia will also release inflation expectations on Thursday. The RBA will be watching carefully, as inflation expectations can translate into real inflation. Inflation expectations were unchanged at 4.5% in January and are expected to ease to 4.3% in February. AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6478. The next resistance line is 0.6514 0.6419 and 0.6383 and providing support
by OANDA
Mitigation + BOS M15 Setup In this scenario, we examine a very common approach: trend continuation. The particular aspect of viewing it in this light compared to simply looking at trendlines is how we can identify demand zones and structural changes called BOS. Prices always tend to retrace in these zones before continuing. Personally, I identify demand or supply zones at H4, and once the price retraces, I look for rebounds at M15. In that timeframe, I aim to identify a structural change to the upside if I'm looking for a long position. Sometimes during an uptrend, it's very common to identify inefficiencies or FVG, which in turn support the price during retracement. Best wishes and happy trading to all.
Education
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
GBP/USD volatile after UK jobs, US inflation dataIt has been a hectic day for the British pound, after key releases on both sides of the pond. In Tuesday’s North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2594, down 0.26%. The pound edged higher after the UK employment report but dropped sharply after US inflation was higher than expected. The UK employment report indicated that the labour market is cooling but remains strong. Employment change rose 72,000 in the three months to December, down from a revised 108,000 a month earlier and just shy of the market estimate of 73,000. Average earnings including bonuses fell to 5.8%, down from a revised 6.7% but above the market consensus of 5.6%. The Bank of England will be paying particular interest to the wage growth numbers. The decline in wages will be welcome, as it is a driver of inflation, but the current rate of wage growth is much too high as it is incompatible with a 2% inflation target. The UK releases inflation data on Wednesday, with CPI expected to rise from 4% to 4.2% and core CPI projected to inch up to 5.2%, up from 5.1%. A rise in the inflation rate would be disappointing for the BoE and would likely lower market expectations for a rate cut. The British pound climbed 0.25% after the UK employment report, but headed south after the US inflation report and declined by 0.65%. The US dollar posted strong gains against all the major currencies after January’s inflation report indicated that inflation was hotter than expected. US CPI rose 3.1% y/y in January, down from 3.4% in December but higher than the market estimate of 2.9%. Core CPI remained unchanged at 3.9%, above the market estimate of 3.7%. The Fed has been pushing back against market expectations for a rate cut in March, and the hotter-than-expected inflation release lowered the odds of a March cut to just 4%, compared to 16% prior to the release, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The markets have widely priced an initial rate cut for June but strong US data could mean a rate cut as early as May. GBP/USD tested support at 1.2597 and this line remains under pressure. Below, there is support at 1.2550 There is resistance at 1.2676 and 1.2723
by OANDA
Bitcoin Sell The News // Buy the the dipIn light of the recent launch of the Bitcoin ETF on January 5th, 2024, and the consequential potential market impacts, a comprehensive analysis is warranted. The underlying dynamics of this analysis are twofold: firstly, the introduction of the Bitcoin ETF, a significant event in the cryptocurrency sphere, is expected to substantially influence market liquidity and investor sentiment. Secondly, the CME Group's probability tool, a sophisticated financial instrument for forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes, is currently indicating a high likelihood of the first interest rate cuts of 2024 occurring in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for March 19th. Furthermore, this analysis takes into account the revised Non-Farm Payroll figures for the entirety of 2023, which were adjusted downwards for 10 out of the 12 months. This revision paints a rather dismal picture of the economic landscape over the previous year, indicating a potentially protracted period of economic stagnation or even contraction. Such a scenario unavoidably caused investors to mis-price their models around a stable economy and soft landing. These will be re-adjusted over the coming weeks. Given these factors, the hypothesis of this analysis is that Bitcoin, being a highly speculative asset, will likely undergo a corrective phase in the short term. This is anticipated to result in a retracement of Bitcoin’s value towards the $28,000 to $30,000 range. This projection is based on a combination of technical analysis, market sentiment, and the historical price behavior of Bitcoin in response to similar macroeconomic conditions. The expected downward trend, however, is predicted to be temporary. As the date of the anticipated rate cuts draws closer, it is forecasted that Bitcoin will experience a significant rebound. This prediction is rooted in the historical precedent that loose monetary policies, such as rate cuts, tend to create favorable conditions for risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies. Investors, anticipating a more accommodative monetary environment, might increase their exposure to Bitcoin, thereby driving up its price. In conclusion, while the short-term outlook for Bitcoin may be bearish due to the factors outlined above, there is a strong potential for a swift recovery and upward momentum as the March 19th FOMC meeting approaches and market conditions evolve. This analysis recommends close monitoring of both macroeconomic indicators and market sentiment to capitalize on the anticipated volatility in Bitcoin’s price.
BINANCE:BTCUSDShort
by PudgyProdigy
3