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Pullback After Breakout Entry M15 ApproachIn this model, we define an approach that I personally use a lot, namely the creation of a demand or supply zone on the H4. In this case, we are observing a demand zone. Once the zone has been plotted on the chart, we wait for a retracement on the M15, and as soon as the market shows a structural change, in this case to the upside during the three London, pre-NY, and NY sessions, always considering to have the midnight open behind us, we can enter the market. The target will be the nearest swing high level, always considering to have at least a risk/reward ratio of 1.5. Best regards and have a good day everyone.
Education
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
2
GBP/USD eyes Bailey, jobs reportThe British pound is showing limited movement at the start of the week. In Monday's North American session, GBP/USD is unchanged at 1.2629. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will speak at a public event later today and the markets will be listening carefully, looking for hints about the BoE's future rate path. The BOE kept rates unchanged at 5.25% for a fifth straight time at the meeting on January 31, as expected. The MPC vote was a surprise, however, with a three-way split. This indicates a divergence of views among MPC members as to the future rate path. Inflation is running at a 3.9% clip, well above the 2% target and maintaining rates in restrictive territory should push inflation lower. At the same time, elevated interest rates could tip the weak UK economy into a recession, and weary home owners are looking for relief from high mortgage payments. After Bailey's remarks, market attention will focus on Tuesday's employment report. The labour market has been cooling but remains in good shape and strong wage growth continues to drive inflation, which is a major headache for the BoE. The economy is projected to have added 73,000 jobs in the three months to December, compared to 108,000 in the three months to November. Unemployment is expected to creep up to 4.0%, up from 3.9%, while average earnings including bonuses is projected to ease to 5.6%, down from 6.5%. The Federal Reserve may have signaled that rate cuts are coming, but it has remained hawkish and continues to push back against market expectations of a rate cut. In December, Fed rate odds for a March cut were above 70%, but the odds have been shaved down to just 15%, as the US economy remains surprisingly strong and Fed members have dampened hopes of a March cut. We'll hear later today from Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin. Last week, Barkin said that he wants to be sure that inflation is clearly headed to 2% before he supports lowering rates and his comments later today will likely reflect this stance. There is resistance at 1.2675 and 1.2723 There is support at 1.2597 and 1.2550
by OANDA
GBPUSD is calm before the storm towards 1.27GBP/USD continues to stay in positive territory above 1.2600 during Wednesday's American session. The pair benefited from improved risk sentiment on Tuesday, recording a 0.5% increase and offsetting much of Monday's losses. The decrease in US Treasury bond yields led to the depreciation of the US dollar against its major rivals on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Bank of England (BoE) Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden stated on Wednesday that she is less concerned about further increases in the bank interest rate, emphasizing her focus on the duration of rates at current levels. After a relatively static day, the market created a new demand area after a slight increase, targeting liquidity around 1.2330. Now, I expect a retest of the demand area with a subsequent increase towards 1.2730. I will evaluate the situation tomorrow morning during the opening of the London markets to see if there are conditions for a long entry. Wishing everyone good trades and hoping for increased volatility in the coming days.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
USOIL | Pay Attention at the Level $71-$72!Oil has found support in a demand zone, with a retest of an upward trendline and a 0.62% Fibonacci level, suggesting the possibility of a recovery towards new highs. On the chart, I've identified a yellow box where the price could consolidate, drawing liquidity below the swing low before resuming the upward movement. As for the fundamental analysis: Qatar is actively working to mediate a temporary ceasefire in Gaza, facilitating hostage exchanges. Qatar's consistent success in negotiating between the conflicting parties is impacting the crude oil price, especially in a context of easing geopolitical tensions. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will face a long-term challenge in 2024 and 2025 as it tries to limit global production outside of OPEC. They impose strict production quotas on member countries, while non-OPEC producers, such as the United States, exceed OPEC pumping limits. US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) recorded a significant increase in January, reaching a twelve-month high with 353,000 new jobs, well above the market's average forecasts of 180,000. With the US economy demonstrating remarkable resilience and the US labor market remaining at historical highs, the likelihood of an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to support the market continues to decrease. Greetings and best wishes for a great weekend to everyone.
TVC:USOILLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
3
EURUSD | The situation is crucial after the NFPEUR/USD has recovered to the 1.0750 area and stabilized during the day after dropping towards 1.0720 in Tuesday's European session. The US dollar maintains its strength across the currency market, despite the momentum easing along with the run-up in government bond yields. Financial markets are still digesting the global delays in interest rate cuts, which are not expected to come as soon as anticipated. In Asia, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announced its monetary policy decision, leaving rates unchanged as widely expected. However, local policymakers have joined the cautious trend, stating that further rate hikes cannot be ruled out. Asian stocks saw mixed trading, with Chinese indices supported by government intervention. On the data front, Germany reported an 8.9% month-on-month increase in factory orders in December, surpassing market expectations. Conversely, the Eurozone reported a 1.1% month-on-month decrease in retail sales for the same month, worse than expected. Graphically, the breakout of a downward channel at H4 with a price retest, which may extend further downwards, even though few movements are expected in the coming sessions in the absence of news; expecting major surprises will be difficult. The market may retrace to the 1.0714 level, corresponding to the 62% Fibonacci level, or to the 1.0650 level, i.e., the 0.705% Fibonacci level. So I expect to start evaluating a long position in that area. Greetings and good evening to everyone.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
XAUUSD New lows approaching $2010After a quiet European session near $2,020 on Tuesday, gold turned higher and surpassed $2,030. Following Monday's sharp increase, the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond fell by more than 1% during the day, allowing XAU/USD to rise further. Financial markets are all focused on delayed interest rate cuts after central bankers worldwide have tempered investors' expectations for tighter monetary policies. Tuesday saw the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) join the cautious stance, with policymakers deciding to keep the door open for further rate hikes if conditions require. Meanwhile, solid US macroeconomic data have further diminished the chances of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut. As a result, government bond yields have risen, supporting the US dollar. Additionally, on a chart level, there is an uncertain recovery in gold, which could return to the $2050 area to regain liquidity at the 0.705 Fibonacci level before dropping to the $2010 zone. This is my expectation at H4, and I will carefully monitor the changes in this pair. Regards and happy trading to all.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Economy of the last 100 years resumed Gold and Purchasing PowerThis is just a simple observation of what happened with Gold in the last 100 years. Here I show some important economic events highlighting the purchasing power with a red line. When you open a GOLD chart, you can look at the trend and think that it had a very strong bull market during the last century. And you are right, it had a very strong one, but against your currency. In reality, the value of GOLD has not increased that much. The purchasing power chart speaks by itself. Most central banks are private entities that are not controlled by the governments of the countries. From the chart, I can deduce that In a bank, you can keep the money, but not it's value. What do you think about central banks, is a fair system? Write it in the comments. If something of what I wrote here is not correct, please let me know.
TVC:GOLD
by piccard54
USD/CAD dips as Canadian employment shinesThe Canadian dollar has climbed higher in the North American session after the release of Canada's December employment report. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3432, down 0.20%. Canada usually posts employment reports on the same Friday as the US, but had the stage all to itself today, as the US posted its job report last week. The news was good as employment jumped by 37,300 in January, smashing the market estimate of 15,000. The December reading was revised upwards to 12,300 from the initial estimate of just 0.1 thousand. The unemployment rate ticked lower to 5.7%, down from 5.8% in December and below the market estimate of 5.7%.  As well, average hourly earnings eased to 5.3% y/y in January, compared to 5.7% a month earlier. The Bank of Canada will be carefully monitoring the jobs data. Employment growth jumped, which points to a stronger labour market, but at the same time wage growth dropped. Wages are a key driver of inflation and today's decline will support the BoC continuing to pause and not cut rates until the middle of the year or later. The BoC is content to continue its "higher for longer" stance and let high rates continue pushing inflation lower. The central bank's top priority remains bringing down inflation to the 2% target, but businesses and consumers, especially homeowners, are groaning under the weight of elevated rates and are looking for some relief from the BoC. The Federal Reserve continues to push back against rate cut expectations in March. This week, a host of Fed members delivered the message that inflation is heading lower but the Fed remains cautious and isn't yet ready to lower rates, as the battle against inflation is not yet won. The markets have taken note of the Fed’s pushback and have pared expectations of a rate cut in March to 17%, down from over 70% in December, according to the CME’s Fed Watch tool. USD/CAD tested support at 1.3434 earlier. Below, there is support at 1.3392 1.3509 and 1.3551 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
Equal High & Low SweepToday I wanted to talk about two scenarios concerning market structure: the equal high for a bullish structure and the low sweep for a bearish structure. The crucial point of each setup, as always, is to identify a structural change called BOS. From there, I start looking for a demand or supply zone in the market where we should pay attention to observe the price return. This price return should occur as indicated in the setup, with the market starting to consolidate and form a double bottom or top of momentum. It is also important to consider the presence of a liquidity zone, as this will be our primary target zone, followed by the minimum or maximum of the structure. I wish everyone happy trading and remain available for further discussions on the matter.
Education
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
EUR/USD eyes German inflationEUR/USD is slightly lower on Wednesday. In the North American session, the euro is trading at 1.0751, down 0.20%. Germany's CPI is expected at 0.2% m/m on Friday, which would confirm the initial estimate from two weeks earlier. On an annualized basis, the initial estimate for CPI came in at 2.9% in January, down sharply from 3.7% in December. A deceleration in energy and food costs was the driver of the downturn in January, which was the lowest inflation rate since June 2021. Core inflation has also been falling, with the initial estimate showing a drop to 3.4%, its lowest rate since June 2022. The drop in German inflation is not all that surprising, as the eurozone's largest economy has been struggling. Germany's manufacturing sector has been in prolonged decline and the services sector is sputtering, with five declines in the past six months. The economy declined in the fourth quarter and another contraction in Q1 would mean that Germany will have entered a technical recession. The eurozone is also grappling with a weak economy, with the latest evidence earlier this week as retail sales slipped 1.1% m/m in December. Despite weak economic conditions in the eurozone and Germany, the European Central Bank has been hesitant to cut interest rates. ECB members have expressed concern that inflation could make a comeback if the ECB were to cut rates too early. That could force the ECB to raise rates again and the optics of such a zig-zag would be disastrous. For now, the ECB remains hawkish on rate policy and is content to continue holding rates until inflation falls closer to the 2% target. Since last week's Fed meeting, a host of Fed members have delivered the message that inflation is heading in the right direction but the Fed plans to be patient and is in no rush to lower rates. The markets have taken note of the Fed's pushback and have pared expectations of a rate cut in March to 18%, down from over 70% in January, according to the CME's Fed Watch tool. EUR/USD tested support at 1.0746 earlier. Below, there is support at 1.0704 There is resistance at 1.0822 and 1.0864
by OANDA
The Best Entry on the MarketIn this model, we will examine a tactical approach to achieve high-performance entry. It all starts with an uptrend characterized by continuous structural changes. In fact, there are continuous directional changes until the retest of the supply zone on M30. Subsequently, the market reacts to this zone by pushing downwards and generating a CHoCH. Here, switching to a 1-minute timeframe, it will be possible to wait for a retest of the supply zone before entering. The trade will target the session or daily low. Greetings and happy trading to all.
Education
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
GBPUSD | 1.2626 will be the new high before the crash!The GBP/USD, after a significant descent, has finally reached the demand zone at the level of 1.2535. In this area, I anticipate a possible upward structural change on M15 during tomorrow's London session. Subsequently, I could consider entering the market with the goal of reaching the level of 1.2626, where a significant liquidity volume is present. Regarding the fundamental analysis, the GBP/USD has again been subject to bearish pressures, touching the lowest point since mid-December below 1.2550 on Monday. The widespread strength of the US dollar, fueled by impressive labor market data and the recent optimistic PMI report, continues to influence the pair. During the North American trading session, the GBP/USD recorded losses of 0.74%, trading at 1.2535. Factors such as last Friday's US economic data and comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over the weekend keep the US dollar higher in a risk-off context. Jerome Powell stated in an interview that it is premature to consider rate cuts, emphasizing that the goal of pushing inflation towards its 2% target has not been fully achieved. In last week's January Nonfarm Payrolls report, 353,000 Americans were added to the workforce, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 3.7%. US Treasury yields remain high throughout the day, supporting the greenback as investors recalibrate their bets on Fed rate cuts. Last week, they estimated the Federal Funds rate (FFR) to reach 3.96%, but following Powell's weekend comments, they expect it to reach 4.26%. Consequently, the US Dollar Index (DXY) rises by 0.44%, reaching 104.42.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Gold held her breath waiting for decisions from the Fed"Gold prices today saw a modest uplift, buoyed by a softening USD and falling Treasury yields. The DXY's 0.3% drop spiced up the appeal of gold for investors holding other currencies, while lower U.S. 10-year bond yields cut the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. Currently trading around 2035 USD, traders are eagerly anticipating insights from several Fed officials this week to gauge the pace of rate cuts for the year. With at least eight Fed speeches lined up, gold could shine if early rate cuts are hinted. But, if the Fed signals a policy pivot delay, gold may face a squeeze, tempering its sparkle as we await the next big meeting."
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Antonia_Le
XAUUSD is getting closer to $2060The price of gold is back in positive territory, heading to retest the two-week high of $2,056 set on Wednesday. The US Dollar is losing momentum amid a renewed appetite for risk, as markets applaud China's fiscal support while assessing the interest rate outlook of the United States Federal Reserve. China's Vice Finance Minister, Wang Dongwei, announced on Thursday that they "will appropriately increase investment under the central government budget," which "will help expand domestic demand." This comes after China's Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) remained at 50.8 in January, suggesting steady growth in the country's manufacturing sector. US Treasury bond yields declined on Wednesday, dragging the US Dollar down, following the ADP Employment Change data coming in below estimates at 107,000, and the Treasury Department's quarterly announcement that it would sell $121 billion in notes and bonds next week, up from $112 billion last quarter. However, a relatively hawkish tone from the Fed, following its two-day policy meeting, failed to offer any relief to US Treasury bond yields, while the US Dollar rose on the Fed's resistance to a rate cut in March. The US central bank extended the pause, as Fed Chair Jerome Powell said, "based on the meeting today, I don't think it's likely we will have a rate cut in March." Currently, markets are pricing in a 35% probability that the Fed will cut rates in March, while for May, the odds stand at 92%. All eyes now turn toward Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls data to confirm the resistance to a rate cut by the Fed until May. Ahead of that, traders will look to US Jobless Claims, Unit Labor Cost (Q4), and ISM Manufacturing PMI data for fresh trading impetus in the gold price. The upcoming data could help reprice the market's expectations for the dovish Fed pivot. Gold, after breaking through a supply zone at the $2,033 level, continued its ascent to the liquidity zone at the $2,060 level. Now, I expect a bounce in the new demand zone before continuing the rally towards $2,060, a level increasingly in focus after the Fed. Greetings and happy trading to all.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
The Best Strategy of 2024: Reversal Entry ModelGood morning, today I would like to draw your attention to a model that I am integrating into my analyses for this year. In this model, we define simple structural changes either downwards or upwards, in this context downwards using two BOS. Subsequently, we define the main demand zone where the price retests. After the retest, the price breaks upwards the structure creating a CHOCH, or an internal breakout. Afterwards, the price will move into a lateral phase accumulating a lot of liquidity, and as it is known, as soon as the price absorbs liquidity above or below a range, it then moves in the opposite direction of the filled liquidity. In this case, liquidity is absorbed below in the order block zone and the price moves upwards. I recommend supplementing charts with this model and identifying these setups starting from an H4 timeframe which can be simpler compared to smaller timeframes. Best regards and happy trading to everyone.
Education
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
EURUSD | New Low to 1.0750 before the Rally!EUR/USD, after breaking through a demand zone between 1.07 and 1.0790, is now heading towards another demand area at the level of 1.075, coinciding with the low of the bearish channel. This zone could be significant for an upward reversal in price, with a potential return towards 1.09. It will be crucial to assess the price action at the London opening this morning, especially considering the reaction to the NFP data after the sharp drop on Friday. From a fundamental perspective, the US Dollar is strengthening as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delays potential rate cuts. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are further supporting the Dollar. We are awaiting EU Sentix data and US ISM PMI. In the post-meeting press conference on Wednesday, Powell stated that "unexpected weakening in the labor market would lead us to cut rates earlier than expected." According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 37.5% probability that the Fed will reduce the policy rate by 25 bps to 5%-5.25% in March, while this probability rises to 60% for May. Warm regards and happy trading to all.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
3
Gold:Bullish Dollar and potential downsidesIn today's trading session, our focus is on XAUUSD as we identify a potential selling opportunity around the 2034 zone. Gold, amidst a downtrend, currently navigates a correction phase, nearing the 2034 support and resistance area. Adding a fundamental layer to this analysis, the recent warning from the Fed serves as a crucial factor influencing market sentiment. This cautionary stance from the Fed contributes to the overall cautious outlook on XAUUSD. Furthermore, it's essential to delve into the relationship between Gold and the USD. Gold often exhibits a negative correlation with the USD, meaning that as the value of the USD strengthens, Gold prices tend to decline. This negative correlation stems from the fact that Gold is priced in USD globally. Therefore, any strengthening of the USD typically leads to a decrease in demand for Gold, resulting in downward pressure on its price. Trade safe, Joe.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by JoeChampion
MARKETS week ahead: February 5 – 11Last week in the news Fed kept interest rates unchanged during the previous week, with Powell`s note that they have “probably '' peaked, showing Fed`s final alignment with the market. Their decision had a modest impact on financial markets during the previous week, considering that it has been widely expected. The US equity indices continued to move around ATH`s, while US Treasuries eased on Fed's decision but reacted on latest jobs data. Gold has its move toward $2.050 resistance, but returned after the USD gained in value. BTC continued to struggle to break the $43K, but still, without success for the last three weeks. The FOMC meeting was in the spotlight of the market during the previous week. As it was widely expected, Fed left rates unchanged, noting that they have “probably” peaked at this level. But, Fed Chair Powell, kept a dose of reserve regarding the forthcoming potential rate cuts. He noted that the Fed members are expecting to see that the inflation is on a clear down road toward the targeted 2%, and until they are certain in data, they will not move interest rates from current levels. At the same time, the US economy continues to show resilience to high interest rates. Published data for non-farm payrolls for January outperformed market expectations of 180K, reaching 353K. Unemployment rate was left at 3.7%, although the market was expecting to see a modest increase to 3.8%. The “battle” between BTC ETF funds continues for the third week in a row. BlackRock`s IBIT and ProShares BITO have surpassed Grayscale`s GBTC trading volumes. Current daily trading volumes range around $300 million, however, as news is reporting, volumes are slowly decreasing. The latest selling pressure on the crypto market came as a result of FTX`s sales, where it was sold over $1 billion worth of the GBTC. On the opposite side are some industry professionals who are proponents of holding real BTC, instead of buying one through ETF`s, putting in a first plan “financial ownership and sovereignty”, which was the real purpose behind the BTC. The largest Chinese real estate company, Evergrande, has been liquidated by the court order in Hong Kong during the previous week. Two years ago, the same company defaulted on its debt in the US, and filed for bankruptcy in the United States. It is still unclear how it will affect other businesses around Evergrande, but what is currently reported by the news is that a court-appointed liquidator will start selling Evergrande`s assets in order to pay its debtors. Crypto market cap During the previous week the FOMC meeting was in the spotlight. Markets were looking to hear the stance of Fed officials on the current economic outlook in the US. Although the Fed was aligned with the market and kept interest rates unchanged, still, what is almost sure is that rate cuts will not be on the table for Fed at least until May this year, as per current market anticipation. The crucial point for the Fed is to find a right moment between increasing interest rates too high and cutting them too early. Both scenarios could have negative implications on the US economy, which the Fed is trying to avoid. Based on the latest output of the US economy, it seems that Fed`s measures gave results without hurting the economy, however, the main issue for the Fed is whether the inflation will clearly return to 2% target, or it will be postponed. While equity markets are reacting quite positively to such economic developments, the crypto market is slowly entering into a calmer phase. Total crypto market capitalization was increased by modest 2% or $ 32B during the previous week, out of which almost 89% is participation of funds flow into the BTC. Daily trading volumes continue to decrease to the level of around $ 69B on a daily basis, from $85B traded two weeks ago. Total crypto market capitalization decrease since the beginning of this year stands at 2%, with a total $38B lost in value of the market. The crypto market performed in a mixed manner during the previous week. The highest inflow of funds had BTC, which increased its cap by almost 3%, adding $24B to its market value. Ether also ended the week in a positive territory, with an increase in market cap by 1.7% or $4.6B. Solana had a good performance with a surge in value of almost 6.5%, adding $2.5B to its value. From other major altcoins LINK should be especially mentioned as its market cap surged by 28.7% on a weekly basis, adding total $2.3B to its cap. Cardano had a good week, with an increase in value of 7.3%, while Monero was up by 5.1% within a week. Several coins ended the week in red, like Bitcoin Gold, with a drop in value of 2.5%, OMG Network dropped by 4.3%, while Stellar was down by almost 4% on a weekly basis. Coins in circulation have been more active than usual during the previous week. Litecoin increased its coins on the market by 4.3% within a single week while LINK had an increase of 2.8%. Solana`s coins in circulation were up by 0.7%, Filecoin had an increase by 0.8%, while Polkadot, and Tether`s circulating coins surged by 0.2% on a weekly basis. Several other coins had an increase of 0.1%. Crypto futures market Optimism on the futures market was higher than the one currently holding the spot market. Short term futures for both BTC and ETH were holding in line with the spot market, and were increased by 2.2% and 1.9% respectively. The major weekly development was with long term futures. BTC long term futures were traded higher modestly below 8% for all maturities. Futures maturing in December 2024 ended the week at price $46.090, while those maturing a year later were last traded at price $49.520. The market continues to hold a positive perception for the future price of BTC. ETH long term futures were traded around 3.5% higher from the week before. Futures maturing in December this year were last traded at price $2.423, while those maturing in December 2025 closed the week at price $2.560. Both BTC and ETH long term futures are slowly returning toward the levels from the beginning of this year, which were above $50K for BTC and $2.8K for ETH.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
Non-farm payrolls surpriseThe US reported a gain of 353K jobs in January, nearly double the expectations of 180K. On top of upward revisions worth 126K. Wages rose by 0.6%, double the expectations, and YoY they are up 4.5%, smashing estimates of 4.1%. Excellent data meant a straightforward reaction, with minimal reversals and an ongoing extension. The US Dollar is up, Gold is down, and stocks are also down, on fears of higher rates, while ignoring the good news for the economy. I expect the Dollar to remain on the rise for the remainder of the day. Any corrections will have to wait for Monday. Nevertheless, the odds of a rate cut in March are down, and only a dive in inflation could change that notion. In the meantime, the trend is clear.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by dc_analytics
Will EURUSD return to 1.0810?The EUR/USD is extending gains towards the 1.0900 level in the early European morning hours on Friday. The US dollar is struggling to find strength, allowing the euro to rise further in an optimistic climate. All eyes are now on the release of the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data. Regarding the dollar, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has remained within the established multi-day range as market participants continued to digest the latest developments from the January 31 FOMC event. On this note, it is worth remembering that Powell stated that the Federal Reserve is ready to maintain the current policy rate for an extended period, if necessary. He emphasized that substantial advancements in inflation are uncertain and hinted at the possibility of initiating rate cuts at some point this year. Powell underscored the tight labor market, also acknowledging the potentially negative impact on the economy if rate cuts were delayed. He emphasized that decisions will be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis, expressing the belief that the policy rate has likely peaked and suggesting at the same time that a rate cut in March seemed unlikely. In the future, investors are expected to keep the possibility of the first rate cut in March or May open, with probabilities of around 37% and 60%, respectively, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. NFP should provide further details on the timing of any future interest rate decisions. On this point, another strong employment data in January should maintain the idea of a tight labor market and strengthen the perception of a soft landing amid a persistently resilient economy, ultimately supporting the idea of a Fed rate cut in May and thus supporting the US dollar as well as short-term yields. As for the technical forecast, I expect a liquidity grab above the Asia highs at the 1.09 level with a structural change downward on the M5 and the formation of a FVG, which will be our entry point for a short trade down to 1.081. Greetings and happy trading to everyone from Nicola.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
⚡️Strifor || GOLD-01/02/2024Preferred direction: BUY Comment: For gold , we highlight the short-term scenario in long. Metals , especially gold , resisted the pressure of the US dollar best; here the context for growth is, in principle, prepared. There are two main scenarios for growth and all are aimed at updating short-term highs towards the region 2060-2070. This expected movement will most likely be followed by a downward correction or the formation of a balance for continued growth. Thank you for like and share your views!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Strifor
1
⚡️Strifor || GBPUSD-01/02/2024Preferred direction: BUY Comment: Similar to the situation with EURUSD , for the British currency we are also starting to consider a medium-term purchase. Yes, the US dollar has begun to strengthen as we expected, but most likely the growth of the American currency will not be as impressive as we expected. One of the options would be to fix part of the volume and move the transaction to breakeven. Our proposed long trade is of a medium-term nature, so a step by step set of positions will be used here. As always, we highlight two scenarios, but in fact they can be combined into one, which involves a step by step accumulation of a long position. Thank you for like and share your views!
Long
by Strifor
3
⚡️Strifor || EURUSD-01/02/2024Preferred direction: BUY Comment: After the Fed meeting, as we expected, the US currency strengthened based on the results of the press conference and comments from the regulator. However, the growth of the dollar is already approaching its end and most likely now we need to take a closer look at medium-term purchases. We are now considering two main long scenarios. The first option assumes that no particularly large drops are expected yet, the second option suggests, on the contrary, a deeper fall towards the level of 1.06500 . The main recovery target is located at the level of 1.09000. Thank you for like and share your views!
Long
by Strifor
1