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Strifor || EURAUD-01/05/2024Preferred direction: SELL Comment: Previous trading ideas for this currency pair worked perfectly, and, as expected, the resistance level of 1.64767 has stopped buyers. At the moment, the probability of resuming the downward movement is high. An increase towards 1.65500 is not excluded within the framework of scenario №2 . However, the more likely scenario №1 involves a fall from current prices with a target at the level of 1.63067 . Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
Short
by Strifor
3
What does a First Fed Rate cut really mean?ANALYSIS ON FED STANCE Powell has consistently indicated that interest rate decisions would hinge on economic data, a stance reaffirmed by the unchanged rates in the latest policy announcement. Despite the Fed's clarification that rate cuts are unlikely until there is more certainty that inflation is consistently heading towards the 2% target, some still question if this is truly a dovish stance. Persistent high inflation has led to adjustments in the market's expectations, now reflecting only a 45% likelihood of a single rate cut by September—down from earlier predictions of three cuts this year. I maintain that even this adjusted forecast is overly optimistic. (drawn and extrapolated on the chart above) Powell emphasized that the Fed requires more than a month or two of data to influence policy changes, pointing out that the data from the most recent quarter has been particularly concerning. This sentiment is reflected in the market's behavior, with rising yields and ongoing corrections in equities. Market volatility remains high, especially around Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements, evidenced by significant selling in both the Nasdaq ( NASDAQ:IXIC ) and NYSE on high trading volumes. In light of these conditions and Powell's recent remarks and the elevated volatility, I've chosen to scale back my market exposure back to nearly 100% cash for about 3 weeks now. WHAT DOES CUTTING RATE REALLY MEAN FOR STOCK MARKET I have calculated all the times when there has been a First Fed Rate Cut and extrapolated the 6-month % change and the 12-month % change following this First Fed Rate Cut. Assuming that this can happen in September (currently about 45% chance that rates will be cut in September based on the CME FedWatch Tool), then I have plotted the results using a black line. This is the average of the 24 times since 1921 that the Fed has made a FIRST rate cut. It is clear that the average scenario is very bullish with an average 12month change around +14-15% on the SP:SPX . However, what is more interesting is that if we look at the times where there is a rate cut without having a recession the scenario becomes very strong. The real concerns of the FED is that we might get reaccelerating in inflation. We are currently in a goldilocks situations, since even though inflation is a little high, the economy is growing and we are not overheating (much better position than EU economies, which are not growing so fast and would have to cut faster). Rates currently are about on average where they would be on a long term 5-year history. This reaccelerating fear is based on events happened before in 1970s and 1980s. You can see in the picture below and what the FED looks to avoid. If you are interested to play with the data, I have made the tool available in my script section. INDICATOR RAW DATA Feel free to use the raw data of the First Fed Rate cut for further analysis below. Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. 05/05/1921 -12.01 9.87 05/01/1924 11.96 33.8 04/23/1926 11.29 12.82 08/05/1927 10.16 14.29 11/04/1929 13.87 -7.96 02/26/1932 -37.46 -29.83 04/07/1933 76.34 81.66 02/05/1954 16.7 39.39 11/15/1957 4.04 28.53 06/10/1960 -6.72 6.00 04/07/1967 8.65 3.64 08/30/1968 2.35 -6.84 11/13/1970 21.26 7.00 11/19/1971 18.61 24.04 12/09/1974 41.76 41.68 05/30/1980 16.75 17.29 11/02/1981 -7.43 16.02 11/21/1984 7.92 21.7 06/06/1989 10.31 17.17 07/06/1995 10.93 22.28 09/29/1998 21.11 26.4 01/03/2001 -4.26 -7.78 09/18/2007 -11.93 -22.78 07/31/2019 7.43 -2.05 Mean 9.9 14.43 Median 10.23 15.16
SP:SPXLong
by SimplerSignals
EUR/USD Finds Stability Amidst Inconclusive Dollar MovementEUR/USD witnessed a significant rebound on Thursday, returning to the upper end of recent consolidation above the 1.0700 level as market sentiment stabilized ahead of another US Nonfarm Payrolls Friday. The pair faces initial resistance at the weekly high of 1.0750, followed by key levels such as the 200-day SMA at 1.0798 and the April peak of 1.0880. On the downside, a break of the 2024 low of 1.060 could indicate a return to the November 2023 low of 1.0510. The uncertain price action of the US dollar led to mixed movements in EUR/USD around the 1.0700 level on Thursday, influenced by investors' reactions to the recent Federal Reserve decision to maintain interest rates stable. The Fed reiterated its stance on the Fed Funds target range and expressed intentions for potential interest rate cuts amid concerns about inflation and economic balance disruptions. Comments from Chairman Jerome Powell also weighed on the dollar, suggesting reluctance towards rate hikes in future monetary policy adjustments. Despite short-term weakness, expectations of a delayed interest rate cut by the Fed could limit the prolonged weakness of the US dollar. Additionally, US yields decreased while the divergence in monetary policies between the Fed and other G10 central banks, particularly the ECB, persisted. The subdued economic fundamentals of the eurozone contrast with the resilience of the US economy, supporting expectations of a stronger dollar in the medium term, especially with the possibility of the ECB cutting rates before the Fed. Consequently, EUR/USD is expected to undergo a more significant decline in the medium term.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
2
USD/JPY slides – did Tokyo intervene?It has been a remarkable week for the yen, which has exhibited sharp swings throughout the week. The Japanese yen fell as much as 1% earlier and on Thursday but has pared most of those losses. USD/JPY has risen 0.38% to 155.19 at the time of writing. Japan suspected of intervention In the Asian session, the yen fell as low as 157.55 but then recovered to precisely 153. The reason for the swing is unclear but there are strong suspicions that Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MoF) ordered another round of intervention. Japan’s top currency official, Masota Kanda, refused to comment on whether Japan had intervened. Kanda was also mum about whether there was intervention on Monday, when the yen spiked and fell below the 160 level before recovering. Money market movements indicate that the MoF did intervene on Monday, selling as much as $35 billion to prop up the yen. The yen’s swings Monday and today could signal that the MoF has targeted 160 as its “line in the sand” for intervention. Fed holds rates, US dollar slips There was no surprise from the Federal Reserve which maintained the benchmark rate in the target range of 5.25% to 5.50% on Wednesday. This marked a six straight pause, as Fed Chair Powell was clear that high inflation has delayed rate cuts. The rate statement said that inflation had fallen in the past year but there was a lack of progress towards the 2% inflation target in recent months. At a press conference, Powell said that the Fed was not yet confident that inflation was falling closer to the target. Consumer inflation has been moving higher and the US economy remains surprisingly strong, which has complicated the Fed’s plan to provide relief to households by lowering rates. Still, the Powell said the next rate move was unlikely to be a hike, which sent the US dollar broadly lower against the majors on Wednesday. The yen soared as much as 3.2% against on the dollar after the rate announcement and closed on Wednesday with gains of 2%. USD/JPY is testing resistance at 155.13. Above, there is resistance at 157.26 There is support at 152.27 and 150.14
by OANDA
Strifor || USDCAD-01/05/2024Preferred direction: SELL Comment: A busy middle of the week, during which we expect large statistics on production and the US labor market, and at the very end we expect the announcement of the Fed interest rate. In addition, we will find out the Fed's prospects for the near future. Against this background, US dollar shorts still look better, at least in the short term. For the USDCAD currency pair, we consider two scenarios that can be found on the chart. We consider two scenarios simultaneously, since volatility is a common phenomenon against the backdrop of such economic events. We consider the target for the fall to be at the level of 1.37020. Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
Short
by Strifor
1
Confirmation of Bear Flag?? - EUHere I have EUR/USD on the 4Hr Chart! Since the LOW on Apr' 16th, Price has been traveling in what looks to be an Ascending Channel! Price today was unable to make a NEW HIGH to give us another test of the Rising Resistance and instead gave us quite the drop out of the Ascending Channel! With this break, I believe multiple confirmations are pointing to this price action being CONFIRMATION of PATTERN being a BEAR FLAG!! -RSI BELOW 50 -Price working BELOW DSR -Price BELOW 200 EMA -3-Point Sell Check Bear Flags are a strong continuation pattern typically giving investors the ability to foresee Selling Opportunities with Price giving a Strong Bearish Break of pattern, then to Test the Break of Pattern which is what I am currently waiting for!! -Once the current LOW has finished forming, I want to see price retrace to the Break of Pattern being in the ( 1.069 - 1.07 ) range for potential Sell Entries! *TP will be the Support Zone last visited in Oct. 2023 @ ( 1.0516 - 1.0462 ) *SL TBD
Short
by Novi_Fibonacci
AUD/USD stabilizes after taking a tumble, Fed nextThe Australian dollar has steadied on Wednesday after sliding 1.4% a day earlier. AUD/USD is up 0.19%, trading at 0.6489 at the time of writing in the North American session. Australian dollar slides after soft retail sales Retail sales in Australia fell 0.4% m/m in March, following a downwardly revised 0.2% gain in February and shy of the market estimate of 0.2%. The decrease in sales was felt across all industries, as consumers held tight to the purse strings. On an annualized basis, retail sales grew by just 0.8% in March, the lowest level since August 2021. The Australian dollar responded with sharp losses to the disappointing retail sales release. China posted soft PMIs which also weighed on the Aussie. The manufacturing PMI eased to 50.4 in April, down from 50.8 and just above the market estimate of 50.3. The services PMI fell to 51.2, compared to 53.0 in March and below the market estimate of 52.2. The data indicates that manufacturing and services are showing little growth, another sign of the slowdown in China, which is Australia’s largest export market. Weaker economic activity in China means less demand for Australian exports, which is weighing on the Australian dollar. Will Powell make a hawkish pivot? The Federal Reserve meets later today, with little doubt that it will maintain interest rates for a sixth straight time. The target range for the benchmark rate of 5.25% to 5.5% hasn’t changed since July and the Fed has shown that it is willing to prolong its “higher for longer” stance as long as is needed. Fed Chair Powell is expected to have a hawkish message for the market, which would likely provide the US dollar with a boost. AUD/USD Technical AUD/USD is putting pressure on resistance at 0.6504. Above, there is resistance at 0.6537 0.6439 and 0.6406 are the next support levels
by OANDA
GBP/USD expected to move lower!The GBP/USD exchange rate shows a lack of direction, hovering below 1.2500 early on Wednesday, amidst US Dollar strength and cautious sentiment ahead of key US employment data and Federal Reserve policy communications. The exchange rate experienced a sharp decline on Tuesday, erasing previous gains amid subdued trading activity due to the closure of European markets for the May Day holiday. US Dollar strength, fueled by better-than-expected Employment Cost Index data, hindered GBP/USD recovery momentum. Market sentiment remains cautious awaiting the release of ADP Employment Change and ISM Manufacturing PMI data for April, with investors awaiting the Fed's monetary policy decision. The Fed is expected to maintain rates at the current level, but any changes in the statement language or hints from Chairman Jerome Powell could influence market sentiment. Currently, markets anticipate a 94% probability of no rate change in June, with a probability of a rate cut in September just below 50%. Powell's comments on inflation and future rate adjustments will be closely monitored, potentially impacting the performance of the US Dollar against the British Pound and other currencies. A dovish stance from Powell could weigh on the US Dollar and support a rebound in GBP/USD, while a hawkish tone could further strengthen the US Dollar and maintain pressure on the exchange rate.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
XAU/USD | GOLD OVER ALL PLAN ( SMART MONEY ) DECRYPTERS Welcome to DECRYPTERS ! NOTE:- PLEASE READ FULL DESCRIPTION BEFORE CONCLUDING ANY THING UPON ANALYZING GOLD OVER ALL TRENDI IS BULLISH DUE TO SEVERAL FACTORS 1 - GEO POLITICAL SITUATION 2- BANKS DEMANDS FOR GOLD 3- INFLATION ISSUES IN US 4- JAPAN CURRENCY DEVALUING ISSUE 5 BRICS 6 -INFALTONUN CERTANITY SMART MONEY HATES UNCENRTANITY , SO THEY ARE BUYING ALOT OF IT OVER ALL GOLD IS BULLSIH IN YEARLY / MONTHLY /WEEKLY CHARTS ( FOR NOW) FOR Now gold is moving in 4 H desecnding channel once it Reaches 2215 - 2225 Area we may see rejection from there . in case if its Flip the Area we may see possible up side Even new All time highs too The down side area 2225 - 2240 we have yearly V WAP Area there as well The projected path of that is shown in chart Even Alot of confluences at that area as POI for trade Thanks for reading the post and be with us till Now , Plz Press Like button if you like the post "REGARDS DECRYPTERS"
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by DECRYPTERS
4
Strifor || GOLD-Week StartingPreferred direction: BUY Comment: After a quiet week in the metals market, the coming week is likely to be very volatile. In addition to the technical accumulation in the triangle format, we have a lot of economic data and events that will happen this week. The most likely scenario №1 will involve a breakout trade at the level of 2340 . Scenario №2 assumes a preliminary fall to 2300 , but you need to be careful here, since a close below 2300 will most likely generate a downward movement to 2200 and 2150 . In the case of a positive outcome, a closure can be expected above the level of 2340 , and then enter a long position with a target of 2400 , then 2440 and higher. Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Strifor
1
GOLD XAUUSD SELLGold prices could plummet if the Federal Reserve fails to enact anticipated rate cuts, particularly amidst widespread expectations for such actions. Here's why: Market Expectations: Investors often base their decisions on expectations, including anticipated actions by central banks like the Federal Reserve. If there's a widespread belief that the Fed will cut interest rates to stimulate the economy or combat inflation, investors may adjust their portfolios accordingly, including buying gold as a hedge against potential economic uncertainties or inflationary pressures. Pricing In Expectations: Financial markets typically "price in" expectations, meaning they incorporate anticipated events into current asset prices. In the case of gold, if investors expect rate cuts and buy gold in anticipation, the price of gold may already reflect these expectations. However, if the expected rate cuts don't materialize, the rationale for holding gold as a hedge against potential economic risks or inflation diminishes, leading investors to sell off their gold holdings. Disappointment and Market Reaction: If the Federal Reserve decides not to cut interest rates despite widespread expectations for such action, it could disappoint investors who had positioned themselves for a rate cut. This disappointment could trigger a sell-off in gold and other assets that were bought in anticipation of rate cuts. Additionally, the lack of rate cuts may signal to investors that the Fed is less concerned about economic risks or inflation than previously thought, further dampening demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Shift in Market Sentiment: Market sentiment can quickly shift based on unexpected central bank actions or economic developments. If the Federal Reserve's decision not to cut rates is interpreted as a sign of confidence in the economy or a belief that inflationary pressures are transitory, investors may become less inclined to hold gold as a hedge. This shift in sentiment could accelerate the decline in gold prices as investors reevaluate their investment strategies. In summary, if the Federal Reserve fails to cut interest rates despite widespread expectations for such action, gold prices could decline as investors adjust their portfolios and reassess the need for gold as a hedge against economic risks and inflation.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by ZILATRADES
USD/JPY: Breaching 158.500 signals potential run to 160? USD/JPY: Breaching 158.500 signals potential run to 160? The JPY weakened below 158.200 against the dollar. It is the first time since May 1990 we have seen this exchange rate for the USD/JPY. The reason is being attributes to the Bank of Japan keeping interest rates unchanged last Friday. With the USD/JPY comfortably above both the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, a break above 158.500 might propel it towards 160.000. Market attention remains fixed on whether Japanese authorities will intervene in currency markets to stem the yen's decline. Other than this, short-term USD/JPY movements may depend on this week's US and Japanese economic data. In Japan, focus lies on April's consumer confidence, unemployment rate, retail sales, and industrial production, along with insights from the BoJ's meeting minutes. better-than-expected figures could boost demand for the Japanese yen. However, most eyes will be on the US Fed's upcoming decision this week, with expectations for maintaining record-level borrowing costs, potentially pushing the yen further down. The Fed decision will be followed by the non-farm payrolls report, expected to show a rise of 210K jobs in April, though slower than March's 303K. Better-than-expected figures here could affect investor outlooks on a September Fed rate adjustment, and giving the USD/JPY more reason to target the 160.000 level.
by BlackBull_Markets
Fed decision preview: Zero rate cuts and EURUSD parity in 2024? Fed decision preview: Zero rate cuts and EURUSD parity in 2024? Expectations point to the Federal Open Market Committee maintaining interest rates at their current levels in the upcoming decision slated for May 1. However, fixed income markets suggest the possibility of rate cuts surfacing in either the July or September meetings of the FOMC. Nonetheless, Thursday’s economic activity report ushered in another jolt for investors and Federal Reserve policymakers. They had been bracing for lower inflation to pave the way for substantial interest-rate cuts this summer. The core price index for personal consumption expenditures in the United States, excluding food and energy, surged by an annualized 3.7% during the first quarter of 2024. This marks an acceleration from the previous three-month period's 2% increase, surpassing the estimated 3.4%. Recent remarks by Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other policymakers have solidified the conviction that rate cuts won’t materialize in the near term. In fact, there's been discussion about the potential for further hikes if inflation fails to abate. Given the challenging scenario, where higher interest rates don't appear to be substantially denting the economy, the question arises: What if policymakers opt to maintain current rates throughout 2024 without any cuts? With the divergence in outlook from the Fed and the ECB, can we expect parity to be reached again in the EUR/USD this year?
by BlackBull_Markets
USD/JPY ticks higher ahead of BoJ meetingThe Japanese yen continues to lose ground on Thursday. In the European session USD/JPY is trading at 155.61, up 0.17%. Earlier, the yen dropped to a 34-year low of 155.74. Friday will be a busy day out of Japan. Tokyo Core CPI, which excludes food, is a key leading indicator of nationwide inflation trends. It is expected to drop to 2.2% in April, down from 2.4% in March. The Tokyo core-core rate, which excludes food and energy, is also expected to fall, from 2.9% in March to 2.7% in April. The March reading marked the first time that the core-core rate fell below 3% since November 2022. Inflation played a key factor in the Bank of Japan’s historic decision in March to raise interest rates out of negative territory. The BoJ wants to see service inflation and wage growth to rise in order to ensure that inflation remains sustainable at the 2% target. The Bank of Japan meets on Friday as the Japanese yen continues to lose ground. The yen has lost about 10.4% against the US dollar in 2024 and this sharp descent in such a short period has set off alarm bells in Tokyo. The BoJ’s tightening in March hasn’t stopped the bleeding, as the BoJ has said that it will maintain an accommodative policy and the US/Japan rate differential remains hasn’t narrowed as the Fed has delayed rate cuts. BOJ expected to stand pat The BoJ is expected to maintain policy settings at the meeting but Governor Ueda may sound hawkish in order to provide some support for the yen. The meeting could turn out to be a non-event but the threat of intervention from the Ministry of Finance is sure to be on the minds of investors. The US releases the initial estimate for GDP for the first quarter. The market estimate stands at 2.5% y/y, compared to 3.4% in Q4 2023. The US economy has been robust and rising inflation has not only delayed rate cuts but there is even talk that the Fed could raise rates in order to put the brakes on inflation. USD/JPY tested support at 155.30 earlier. Below, there is support at 154.13 There is resistance at 155.96 and 157.13
by OANDA
USD/JPY Intervention Risks: Caution PrevailsThe USD/JPY has recently surged to a multi-decade high of 154.88, reflecting a steady climb. However, uncertainty looms over the pair, with traders refraining from placing new bets due to the threat of Japanese currency market interventions. Widespread weakness in the US dollar is also curbing bullish potential. Despite reaching a new high for April and the past 34 years, the possibility of interventions by Japanese authorities has tempered bullish enthusiasm. Japanese Finance Minister has warned of direct intervention to support the yen, if necessary. Nevertheless, the USD/JPY remains above the historical intervention zone, ranging from 150.00 to 152.00. Investor focus is on US durable goods orders data, with the USD/JPY poised to react based on the outcomes. The upcoming Bank of Japan meeting on Friday could further impact the pair, with the central bank's accommodating stance potentially changing if inflation nears 2%. However, a rate hike by the BoJ during the meeting is unlikely. Additionally, US economic data performance could influence USD/JPY volatility, with GDP and personal consumption index among the anticipated releases. Technical analysis suggests that the USD/JPY needs to consolidate before its next upswing, with potential support between 154.55 and 154.45. In conclusion, while the USD/JPY maintains strength, traders exercise caution amidst intervention risks and US dollar weakness.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
#FED causing Commercial Real Estate/ Banking CollapseCommercial real estate "..talk of black swans of an economic nature forcing the Fed to print trillions again. Commercial real estate may be the next domino to fall. Back in 2008, default rates rose to 9%, up from 1%, as interest rates rose. Today, the damage to commercial real estate loans which total about $2.7 trillion could be far greater. Over 40% of the US work force now works remotely since May 2020. The decline in demand for commercial properties has worsened by recent tech layoffs. The value of office sector REITs have fallen by about 55% which translates into a 33% reduction in the value of office buildings. The default rate of between 10-20% in commercial real estate which was the lower end seen during the worst of 2008 would result in about $80-160 billion in additional bank losses. This would be ruinous for hundreds of smaller and midsize regional banks that have already been weakened by higher interest rates. The 2008 financial crisis spread from the housing sector to the rest of the economy as large banks with exposure to housing took tremendous losses. Today, the Fed has created a moral hazard in guaranteeing depositors. Bank executives may take bigger risks if they believe the Fed will step in to protect depositors."
NYSE:AREShort
by BallaJi
XAUUSD| It's time for a correction toward 2250$The analysis on gold presents a complex picture influenced by various factors. Initially, the precious metal recorded a significant loss, exceeding 2% during the day and dropping below $2,340. This decrease was primarily attributed to the easing geopolitical tensions, which prompted a deep correction in the XAU/USD market. Additionally, the resilience of US Treasury bond yields added bearish pressure to the pair. From a fundamental perspective, spot gold is under intense selling pressure at the beginning of the week, with XAU/USD approaching a daily low of $2,329.51, the lowest in a week. The recent decline was partly caused by an increased appetite for high-yielding assets, as evidenced by investors fleeing to Asian stocks amid the easing tensions in the Middle East. The US dollar, although mixed against its major rivals, shows particular weakness compared to commodity-linked currencies. However, activity remains well-contained pending first-tier data scheduled for the week, especially regarding the release of the first estimate of Q1 GDP and the March Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index in the United States. In summary, gold exhibits bearish signals in the short term, with a combination of technical and fundamental factors contributing to its current weakness. However, the situation could evolve in response to any significant geopolitical developments or economic data.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Mighty Dollar Roars Back: A Wake-Up Call for Global MarkeThe financial markets of 2024 have witnessed a surprising resurgence: the unwavering strength of the US dollar. After predictions of a decline at the year's outset, the greenback has defied expectations, surging over 4% according to the Bloomberg dollar index. This unexpected power play by the dollar serves as a stark wake-up call for investors around the globe, forcing a reassessment of global economic dynamics. Several factors are fueling the dollar's dominance: • Resilient US Economy: Contrary to forecasts of a slowdown, the US economy has displayed remarkable strength. Robust economic data, coupled with persistent inflation, has prompted the Federal Reserve to take a more hawkish stance. Rising interest rates in the US make dollar-denominated assets more attractive to investors, increasing demand for the currency. • US Exceptionalism Narrative: The perception of the US as a safe haven in a world riddled with geopolitical uncertainties is bolstering the dollar's appeal. Geopolitical tensions, exemplified by the ongoing war in Ukraine, are driving investors towards reliable and stable economies. The relative stability of the US, compared to global turmoil, strengthens the dollar's position as a go-to currency during times of crisis. • Sticky Inflation: The Federal Reserve's fight against inflation is another key driver of dollar strength. The Fed's commitment to raising interest rates, while potentially slowing economic growth, is seen as a necessary step to curb inflation. This hawkish stance stands in stark contrast to the dovish policies of central banks in other major economies, like the Bank of Japan (BOJ), which continues to maintain ultra-low interest rates. This divergence in monetary policy further strengthens the dollar's relative appeal. The Ripple Effects The resurgent dollar has significant ramifications for global markets: • Currency Devaluation: A stronger dollar puts downward pressure on other currencies. This can make imports into the US cheaper but exports from the US more expensive, potentially impacting global trade dynamics. Emerging market economies, particularly those heavily reliant on foreign capital, could face currency depreciation and capital outflows. • Equity Market Volatility: The rising dollar can create headwinds for equity markets outside the US. As the dollar strengthens, foreign investments become less attractive, potentially leading to capital repatriation and reduced liquidity in other markets. This could lead to increased volatility in global stock markets. • Commodities Market Impact: A strong dollar generally translates to lower commodity prices. This is because most commodities are priced in US dollars, so a stronger dollar makes them relatively more expensive for holders of other currencies. This could impact countries heavily reliant on commodity exports. The Road Ahead The future trajectory of the dollar remains uncertain. The path of US interest rates, the evolution of global economic conditions, and the persistence of geopolitical tensions will all be crucial factors shaping the dollar's strength. The current scenario presents both challenges and opportunities for investors. A strong dollar can create opportunities in US assets but necessitates careful portfolio diversification to mitigate currency risks. The evolving global landscape demands close monitoring and a nimble investment strategy to navigate the volatility. The resurgent dollar serves as a potent reminder of the US economy's enduring strength and its role as a global anchor currency. As the world grapples with geopolitical and economic uncertainties, the dollar's reign is likely to continue for the foreseeable future, demanding a recalibration of global investment strategies.
TVC:DXYLong
by bryandowningqln
EURUSD: Waiting the ECB for a new low of the yearEUR/USD has shown a significant upward trend, surpassing the key level of 1.0650. This upward movement was primarily driven by a shift in risk sentiment, with investors moving away from safe-haven assets, thereby weakening the US Dollar. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart indicated a recovery towards the 50 level, signaling a reduction in bearish momentum. Earlier, during Friday's Asian session, EUR/USD experienced a decline towards 1.0600, attributed to reports of Israeli missiles striking Iran. This triggered a flight to safety, benefiting the US Dollar and causing a temporary retreat in EUR/USD. However, official confirmation regarding Israeli retaliation against Iran was awaited, as Israel had not yet confirmed its involvement. Despite initial concerns, reports suggesting the end of direct attacks between Israel and Iran provided relief to the markets, leading to a reversal in risk sentiment. Consequently, S&P 500 futures retraced a significant portion of their previous losses, indicating an improvement in market mood. However, geopolitical uncertainty in the region remains a concern, potentially prompting investors to seek refuge before the weekend. Even in the absence of further escalation, investors may exercise caution, refraining from making risky bets amid persistent geopolitical tensions.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
The Aussie is Vulnerable Despite its BounceAUD/USD rises after its 2024 lows as the greenback’s strength deflates, eying the pivotal EMA200 and daily closes above it would shift bias to the upside. However, such outcome has high degree of difficulty technically. The EMA200 can contain the rebound and sustain the bearish bias, which would keep the Aussie exposed to the 2023 lows (0.6269). The hawkish repricing around the Fed is likely to continue to help for the USDollar, as stubborn inflation, strong economy and robust labor market favor a conservative approach around rate cuts by the Fed. Its Australian counterpart seems to be further from such moves at this stage, but today’s poor labor data strengthen the case for an RBA pivot. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Short
by FXCM
Is BOJ's Intervention Hiding Behind Inflation Data? Is BOJ's Intervention Hiding Behind Inflation Data? Japanese inflation data is scheduled for release on Thursday, but its impact on the market might be subdued. Investors could prefer to pay attention to next week's quarterly growth and price forecasts from the Bank of Japan, which could be the real market movers. According to sources cited by Reuters, the Bank of Japan is transitioning towards a more flexible approach in its policy decisions, placing less emphasis on inflation targeting. The upcoming April 25-26 policy meeting will see the release of the Bank's quarterly growth and price projections. This shift in strategy suggests that the Bank of Japan may signal a willingness to raise interest rates irrespective of inflation forecasts, which are anticipated to remain around 2.8% or possibly dip slightly to 2.7%. On the technical side, the USDJPY pair could maintain an upward bias, with buyers potentially pushing it towards the 155.00 mark. Recent fluctuations in the USDJPY pair have prompted speculation about possible intervention by the Bank of Japan. After hitting a new high dating back to 1990 at 154.705, the pair experienced a swift and unusual downturn. Market watchers are closely monitoring the 155.00 level, considered another more likely potential intervention threshold by the Bank of Japan. Following a dip to 153.890, the pair rebounded towards 154.775, supported by neutral to hawkish remarks from US Federal Reserve officials. Fed Chair Powell, speaking at a panel discussion in Washington, highlighted the strength of the labor market and progress on inflation, suggesting the Bank was comfortable with allowing “restrictive policy further time to work”.
by BlackBull_Markets
4
Will it fall further or is it time to buy? Tension in East.Since the U.S. inflation data last Wednesday, the EUR/USD has depreciated for four consecutive days, falling by 2.42%. Tensions in the Middle East and a strong U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) have contributed to this decline, which may be finding a potential buying zone. The pair is currently trading around 1.063 at the time of writing this article. The direction of the price this week remains uncertain. The EUR/USD is currently trading in a support zone (at the 61.8% Fibonacci level), but further declines cannot be ruled out given the ongoing conflict in the Middle East or continued strength in the DXY. The DXY directly influences the pair's exchange rate. On the other hand, the price is also near the support level of a triangular pattern, which suggests that after a few days of consolidation, buyers might gain confidence and push the pair toward the 1.09 resistance level indicated by the pattern. **THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. EACH TRADER IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THEIR OWN TRADING DECISIONS AND RISK MANAGEMENT.**
Long
by CRYPTONIA5