Get started

Fed

GBPNZD must make a choice! 2.06 or 2.094GBPNZD currently exhibits a bearish structure highlighted by this bearish channel. Currently, the price, after bouncing off the bottom of this channel, is at a crucial point. The latest bullish reaction has led to the formation of a demand zone, ranging from 2.0760 to 2.0940. If the bearish trend maintains its strength, it is possible that the price will decline to break the demand zone, reaching the level of 2.06. At this level, the lower side of the channel and the demand zone intersect. Personally, I anticipate a potential bullish turnaround at this specific point, and that's where I will look for an entry point at H4. I will keep you updated. Greetings and happy trading to all, from Nicola.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
GBPUSD : Mitigation Before the Fed and of a New HighThe GBP/USD remains in a defensive position, trading in the negative territory around 1.2650 during the American session on Tuesday. The careful market approach is assisting the USD in maintaining resilience against its competitors following a release of mixed data. This cautious sentiment is putting pressure on the currency pair as it approaches the upcoming Fed and BoE meetings. The GBP/USD experienced little change at the beginning of the week but encountered slight bearish pressure early on Tuesday. During the European session, the pair is trading below 1.2700, and the technical analysis suggests a lack of interest from buyers. The prudent market stance is bolstering the US Dollar (USD), creating challenges for the GBP/USD to gain momentum on Tuesday. Investors are particularly uneasy about the escalating conflict in the Middle East. This negative sentiment is reflected in US stock index futures, which are trading in the red. Concurrently, the FTSE 100 Index in the UK opened higher but retreated slightly. If Wall Street's main indices turn positive after the opening bell, the USD might weaken, aiding the GBP/USD in limiting its losses. The US economic calendar will highlight December JOLT Job Openings data and the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index for January, which improved to 110.7 from 101.0 in November. While a positive sentiment could boost demand for the USD, investors are unlikely to take significant positions ahead of the policy announcements from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. The price has reacted well in the demand zone at the 1.26-1.2640 level with a bounce at the 0.705 Fibonacci level. The upward movement seems interesting, but I don't believe the price can gather much momentum given the swing high at the 1.2720 level and the high liquidity that the price could absorb before retracing further. So, I expect another day of consolidation awaiting the Fed, and then we'll see if the price can indeed push higher towards the 1.2750 area as the first target. I will keep you updated on the situation, keep an eye on macro data. Happy trading to all, greetings from Nicola.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day: Fed Reaction In the morning update for February 1, 2024, the focus is on the aftermath of the Federal Reserve's recent policy announcement. Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged recent inflation but emphasized the need for more data before making decisions. The market responded with a 1.6% drop in the S&P 500, the most significant since September, although a partial rebound is expected. Real Estate Concerns Concerns over US commercial real estate further complicated the market's reaction, with New York Community Bancorp's decisions causing a record 38% stock drop. Aozora Bank and Deutsche Bank also voiced concerns about US commercial property, impacting global bond markets. Tech Earnings Deluge In the tech sector, three major players—Apple, Amazon, and Meta—are set to report earnings. Google's parent company, Alphabet, and Microsoft experienced negative responses to their recent results. Contrasting Fortunes In European earnings news, Deutsche Bank's shares rose despite real estate concerns, fueled by plans for a share buyback and higher revenue goals. Shell defied oil price slumps with a fourth-quarter profit surpassing estimates, while Adidas and BNP Paribas faced declines due to lower profit guidance and lowered targets, respectively. BOE Decision The Bank of England's policy decision is anticipated, focusing on the timing of its first rate cut. In the US, economic data on initial jobless claims and manufacturing is expected, leading up to tomorrow's highly awaited payroll numbers.
VANTAGE:SP500
by Elite_Forex
SMC Sell Setup: High Probability EntryGood morning everyone, today we will explore a short entry model using the concepts of smart money. This model involves entering the market in a short position after a series of specific patterns. Firstly, we start with a bearish structure where the price breaks a significant low, creating a BOS. Subsequently, we will identify the SMC zone, which is a trap zone to avoid. In this zone, the price makes a false descent before rising, creating the most important peak that we will use to evaluate a short entry. After identifying this peak, the market begins to decline, forming a CHOCH, representing an internal break. This will signal our sell point, and we could define our sell zone indicated by the POI on the chart. Once the price enters this zone, we may consider opening a short position on the security. Greetings to everyone.
Education
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
GBP/USD Forms Bullish Triangle with Target at 1.25The GBP/USD currency pair is having difficulty finding a decisive short-term direction and is fluctuating within a well-known trading range. Reduced bets on an imminent interest rate cut by the Bank of England support the British Pound (GBP) and provide some backing to the currency pair. Although the short-term technical outlook has yet to reveal a bearish momentum build-up, buyers may remain discouraged unless the pair manages to reclaim 1.2700. Positive macroeconomic data from the United States boosted the US Dollar (USD) during Thursday's American session. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the US Gross Domestic Product grew at an annual rate of 3.3% in the fourth quarter (first estimate). This exceeded market expectations for a 2% expansion and contributed to the USD outperforming its peers. The GDP report on Thursday showed that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 2% on a quarterly basis in the fourth quarter, matching the previous quarter's increase and market expectations. Personally, I have speculated on a possible decline in the pound on the daily chart, highlighting a supply zone at the level of 1.271, which is a strong resistance point, and two closely spaced demand zones that could act as support between the levels of 1.256 and 1.259. Additionally, I have outlined two trendlines, one bearish and one bullish, forming an overall bullish triangle. Despite this, the price is currently at the upper side of the triangle. Therefore, in my opinion, it is ready for a descent towards 1.25, considering the support from the EMA21. The macroeconomic data this week will be interesting with the Fed in view, especially after the purchases of EUR and GBP in conjunction with the dollar seem to have been stagnant for over two weeks, a truly stalled market situation. Greetings and a good trading day to everyone from Nicola.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
2
EURJPY | Sell Idea after the FEDEURJPY broke below 159 in the hours leading up to the FED, and as per the manual, the yen gained strength before the most anticipated event of the month. Now the price is in a reversal zone, specifically around the 62-78 Fibonacci levels, and I anticipate a retracement to the 160 level where a supply zone has just been formed after breaking a crucial swing low. When the price returns to the 160 level, I will consider a short entry if the market on the H4 chart retraces to crucial Fibonacci levels, forming well-defined spikes, and if on the M15 chart, the price structurally breaks downward. Always keeping in mind the presence of a midnight spike indicator, I will enter the market only if there is a recovery margin of at least 1.5%, risking 1%. Therefore, it will be crucial to assess whether the descent is free from liquidity constraints. Greetings and happy trading to all; the FED meeting awaits us.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
GBPCAD could go up to 1.7138 after the BOEGBPCAD has started to show upward strength after bouncing at the 1.70 level, where a demand zone is located. The price underwent a significant structural change on the M15 timeframe yesterday, presenting a trading opportunity that could have yielded a 1% profit before the release of Canadian data. Personally, I did not execute that trade. Currently, it appears to be resuming its trajectory towards the higher swing point, where there is liquidity to fill at the 1.7138 level. Today, the BOE interest rates are expected, so pay attention to potential entries during the London session and possible spikes during the rate announcement. Personally, I would consider an entry, provided the conditions are met, after the rate announcement to have a more comprehensive view of the chart and macroeconomic factors. Naturally, I will assess a structural change to the upside on the M15 to confirm my long-term bullish outlook. Greetings and happy trading to everyone.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
⚡️Strifor || GOLD-Fed MeetingPreferred direction: SELL Comment: The situation with metals is quite ambiguous, but nevertheless, considering this instrument from a medium-term point of view, most likely the instrument does not intend to grow yet. According to our two short scenarios, we expect a false upward move before the fall. Of course, this is the first more positive scenario for sellers. Here you can only guess and react at the moment. These supposed upward movements can be formulated during the Fed meeting and press conference. The main goal of these sales is the level of 2000 exactly. It should be noted that the downside potential most likely does not end there. Thank you for like and share your views!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Strifor
1
⚡️Strifor || GBPUSD-Fed MeetingPreferred direction : SELL Comment: Just as in the case of the euro, the British pound is also under the target of sales, however, it should be noted that the potential for a fall here is lower than that of the former. We have previously written about selling using this instrument and continue to adhere to this. Today marks the start of a rather busy period of the week, and the main focus of attention is, of course, the Fed and its rhetoric about upcoming policy. Just like for the euro, we highlight two scenarios. The only difference between them is the depth of the supposed false upward movement. The target is common and is at the level of 1.25000 . Thank you for like and share your views!
Short
by Strifor
1
⚡️Strifor || EURUSD-Fed MeetingPreferred direction: SELL Comment: As before, despite everything, we continue to adhere to sales in euros. The main target for the fall is the level of 1.07000 , which is also relevant before the upcoming Fed meeting. Of course, more attention will be focused on the press-conference and what mood the regulator will show. If the scenario with the ECB repeats, where it indicated a likely rate cut, then of course this will not benefit the American currency. In this case, the instrument will most likely recover to the level of 1.09000 and even try to update local highs near this level. However, if the rhetoric is more hawkish, then of course this will allow the US dollar to remove all leverage and go to 1.07000 and possibly even lower. Here it should be noted that technically and in terms of volumes, everything is on the side of the dollar . Before the Fed meeting and, in fact, a busy day, since we are expecting the release of inflation in Germany and preliminary data on non-farm , we highlight two scenarios for selling the euro , since this is the main direction now. Thank you for like and share your views!
Short
by Strifor
1
FED Press Conference SummaryThe FED left rates unchanged as expected and removed language talking about potentially raising rates – also fully expected. The hawkish twist came from a comment on waiting to be more confident about falling inflation. That sent the USD up, risk assets down. Then came Powell with a dovish comment – he signaled the Fed only needs a continuation of data, not another big fall in inflation. That sent the US Dollar down. He then made a blunt hawkish twist – saying a March rate cut is unlikely, and not the base case. That triggered a wild reaction in favor of the Greenback and against everything else. He then calmed down by saying it all depends on the economy – data-dependent. All in all, the USD ends the day higher, stocks lower, Gold lower. But, it's not over. I still expect markets to look at the data, and if it shows a continuation of slowing inflation a cooling labor market – Nonfarm Payrolls are coming on Friday – everything will change.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by dc_analytics
🔥 Bitcoin Losing The Short-Term Uptrend? BAD Reaction To FOMCWith the FOMC practically concluded, the market is reacting with a strong sell-off in both crypto and stocks. The FED has announced to keep their interest rate stable for the 4th time in a row, as it wants to see a stronger reduction in inflation before cutting rates. Higher rates for longer, the market doesn't like that. As seen on the chart, BTC is trading in a decent uptrend for the last week. However, there's a risk that the FOMC will mark a top and that the bears will take over from here. Keep in mind, bears are still waiting patiently after the post-ETF sell-off. If BTC breaks through the bottom support, we could quickly fall back towards 41k or even lower.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by FieryTrading
4
XAUUSD-SHORT THESIS-Wed Jan 31st-Fed EventShort Meltdown Incoming!!! Entry positioned in London High, which turns out to be NY session Fibonacci point, also alligns with classic Fib retracement Golden zone. Stop loss above daily high. Profit target from 2020s and lower. From my fundamental part of analysis, my take is that Fed won't cut the rates and that press conference as Fed statement might be very hawkish, that concludes my target at 1996.00 *SELL LIMIT: -ENTRY: 2041.00 -STOP LOSS: 2049.00(80 pips) -TAKE PROFIT: 1996.00(450pips)
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by jg12345gj
EUR/USD gives up gains after soft German CPIEUR/USD showed little movement earlier but that changed after German CPI was softer than expected. The euro gained 0.40% in the aftermath of the inflation report but has given back about half of those gains. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0857, up 0.11%. Germany's inflation rate dropped to 2.9% y/y in January, down sharply from 3.7% in December and just below the market estimate of 3.0%. The reading, a preliminary estimate, was the lowest rate since June 2021. The drop was driven by a slowdown in goods inflation, with energy and food prices both decelerating. Services prices, however, rose slightly. Monthly, inflation ticked higher to 0.2%, compared to 0.1% in December and matching the market estimate of 0.2%. Inflation continues to fall in the eurozone's largest economy, as the ECB's steep hike in interest rates has dampened inflationary pressures. High interest rates have also cooled the German economy, as GDP declined by 0.2% q/q. This follows the Q3 reading of -0.3%, which means that the economy is technically in a recession with two straight quarters of negative growth. The eurozone managed to avoid a technical recession, but just barely. The economy posted zero growth in Q4 after third-quarter growth of -0.1%. The eurozone releases preliminary CPI on Thursday, with CPI expected to drop from 3.4% y/y to 3.2%. The Federal Reserve meets later today and a pause is a virtual certainty. This would mark the fourth straight time that the Fed has held rates at the target range of 5.25%-5.50%. Traders will be looking for clues about the Fed's rate path from the rate statement and Fed Chair Powell's press conference. If the statement or the press conference signals that the Fed is moving away from its "higher for longer" stance and is looking at rate cuts, the US dollar could react with volatility. EUR/USD tested resistance at 1.0866 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 1.0920 There is support at 1.0801 and 1.0747
by OANDA
Perfect ChoCh : Entry + SetupWith this trading model, I aim to share with the community a particularly significant approach that has revolutionized my way of operating in the markets, especially on shorter timeframes such as 1, 5, and 15 minutes. This model involves defining a clear structure before entering the market, specifically a demand zone already present in the market. A price that reaches this zone through a double structural break (BOS) before rallying and creating an internal break (ChoCh) before returning to the demand zone. Subsequently, the price will surpass the previous high, thereby defining a new demand zone. One will then await the price to reach this zone, and once there, enter the market with the aim of reaching the supply zone depicted on the chart.
Education
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
XAU/USD | Bullish trend ready to reach $2060.Gold has shown a reversal in trend, dropping below $2,030 after an initial increase to $2,040. Despite the strength of the US dollar, XAU/USD has maintained positive territory thanks to the decline in US yields and growing tensions in the Middle East. On the daily chart, the pair has modest intraday gains but remains below a 20-period simple moving average (SMA). Longer-term moving averages lack directionality. Technical indicators have slightly improved but remain negative, indicating limited upside prospects. In the short term (4-hour chart), XAU/USD is in a neutral phase, with moving averages lacking directional strength. Technical indicators suggest diminishing short-term buying interest. Support levels are at $2,019.20, $2,010.00, and $2,001.60, while resistance levels are at $2,033.10, $2,040.30, and $2,052.60. The week saw gold open with a higher gap at $2,037.46, but the dollar recovered during the American session. Geopolitical tensions, especially between the US and Iran, have influenced the markets. Investors are awaiting economic data and monetary policy decisions, with a focus on earnings and comments from the ECB attempting to temper expectations of an interest rate cut in April.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
NASDAQ | Bearish triangle with a retest at 15,430During the day on January 26th, the index of US technology stocks, likely the Nasdaq 100, recorded a negative performance, closing with a moderately negative percentage change of 0.55%. The day started with difficulties, opening at 17,430 points, approximately near the lowest level of the previous day. Despite this, the index showed reasonable resilience throughout the session but ultimately closed weakly at 17,420 points, near the day's lows. An analysis of the status and trend suggests that in the medium term, the Nasdaq 100 confirms the presence of an upward trend. However, in the short term, it appears that the positive momentum is diminishing at the resistance test identified at 17,510 points, with the first support located at 17,330 points. Expectations are leaning towards a negative extension in the short term, with a target set at 17,230 points.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
AUD/USD Awaits the FED for New HighThe AUD/USD exchange rate is declining towards 0.6550 early on Wednesday due to mixed China's PMI data and weaker-than-expected inflation data in Australia. The CPI confirms that the RBA's interest rate hike cycle is over. Attention now turns to the decision of the United States Federal Reserve. Despite an erratic performance on Tuesday, the AUD/USD erases the gains of the week, weakening daily in tandem with the U.S. dollar. Australia's resilience is noteworthy, despite reports of slower-than-expected stimulus measures from the PBoC. The expected decision of the RBA to maintain the current monetary policy limits the potential upward movement of the exchange rate in the short term. The decrease in inflation in December and labor market tensions support the expectation of unchanged interest rates. The possibility of the Federal Reserve extending its restrictive stance favors further gains for the U.S. dollar, acting as a drag on the AUD/USD. On the H4 chart, the price shows a clear break of a bullish trendline at the level of 0.6580. In my opinion, it could be a false breakout as a perfect bounce is observed on the upper base of the previous bearish trendline at the level of 0.6560. Being close to an order block + Demand, I expect a possible rally and will assess opportunities to enter the market during the day, anticipating the rally after the Fed. If interest rates remain unchanged, the dollar should weaken, and the AUD should strengthen, unless we are facing a manipulated market. Certainly, Powell's statements will be crucial, but I believe there will be no cuts before June. Greetings and have a good trading day.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
DXY: Will the Fed Be a Catalyst for Direction in the USD Index?For the past two weeks, the DXY has been trading within a frustratingly narrow range, lacking clear direction. Today's FED press conference may provide some resolution to this stagnant pattern. Leading up to this event, prominent Fed members have cautioned against overly optimistic expectations regarding future rate cuts. They emphasized that the Fed does not intend to reduce the benchmark rate as rapidly as markets had anticipated. Supporting data further reinforced the Fed's stance. December's CPI surpassed expectations, indicating persistent price pressures, although much of this was influenced by base effects that are now mostly behind us. Additionally, January's flash PMI data and Q4 GDP print were strong, albeit slightly lower than the 4.9% growth seen in Q3. Despite this, equity markets rallied, and the unemployment rate now stands well below 4%, suggesting a positive outlook for a 'soft landing' or 'golden path' scenario. If the Fed identifies upside risks to services inflation due to the strong data, it will proceed with caution. However, there's a general expectation that the Fed's statement will adopt a more neutral tone. Technically, as indicated in the posted chart, the DXY is trading within a defined range between the 103.10 zone and the 103.70 zone. A breakout from either of these zones could provide insight into a medium-term direction. In my view, considering the market's overly optimistic anticipation of rate cuts and the upward pressure on prices, we may see a breakthrough above resistance. In such a scenario, a bullish medium-term trend could emerge, potentially driving the index back towards the 107 zone.
TVC:DXYLong
by Mihai_Iacob
2
Gold forecast: Crazy to expect rate cut tomorrow? Gold forecast: Crazy to expect rate cut tomorrow? Mostly yes. Market consensus leans towards the U.S. central bank maintaining current interest rates following the conclusion of its two-day meeting tomorrow. However, the potential impact on the U.S. dollar and gold is likely to hinge on statements from Fed Chair Jerome Powell regarding expectations for a rate cut. While there is an anticipation of a somewhat dovish shift from Fed officials in the market, the robust January data and the positive JOLTS job report this morning present a case for the possibility of a sustained hawkish stance, The JOLTS report revealed that U.S. job openings in December surged to 9.026 million, surpassing the expected 8.750 million and marking the highest figure in three months. XAU/USD was trading in the green for a second consecutive day before the JOLTS report. Gold is currently above a mildly bearish 20 Simple Moving Average for the first time in over two weeks, with longer moving averages situated significantly below the current level. Still, gold has breached its minor downtrend line originating from the early January high raises the possibility of a bullish target towards $2055, presumably reliant on the possibility of a Fed rate cut (or not).
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
XAGUSD | Long Setup with Entry PointXAGUSD presents a bullish structure on the daily chart, where the price has bounced off the 0.705 Fibonacci level after entering the demand zone. I now expect the price to experience further growth towards the liquidity zone at the 24.20 level, as the previous liquidity area has already been filled. It is highly likely that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged, potentially weakening the dollar and, consequently, leading to new increases in the week for gold, silver, EUR/USD, and GBP/USD.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
USD/CAD remains under pressure with a new target at 1.3220The USD/CAD exchange rate is under selling pressure in the early Asian trading hours on Tuesday. Canada's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for November, expected to expand by 0.1% compared to the previous month, will be released on Wednesday. The pair remains under pressure as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday approaches, with no expectations of changes in interest rates. Currently, USD/CAD is traded at 1.3510, down 0.01% for the day. The US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) for December increased by 0.2% from the previous month, with an annual increase of 2.9%. On Monday, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Manufacturing Business Index for January was -27.4. The Fed will announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday, with the possibility of a future rate cut. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, fueled by potential US military actions, may support the dollar as a safe-haven currency. On the Canadian front, a slight growth of 0.1% in November's GDP is expected. An increase in oil prices may support the commodity-linked Canadian dollar and act as a headwind for USD/CAD. Investors will closely watch the Fed's rate decision and seek trading opportunities around the USD/CAD pair. USD/CAD, having retraced to the 0.5% Fibonacci level on the total extension and the 0.79 level on the partial extension, has rotated well below the reversal zone, and now I expect a descent towards 1.3220.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1