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USOIL: Unraveling Current Market DynamicsThe analysis of USOIL (West Texas Intermediate) takes into account multiple factors influencing the current oil market. Geopolitical tensions: Growing tensions in Gaza and concerns about potential attacks from Iran in the Middle East are adding a risk premium to oil prices. These events could lead to disruptions in oil supply, increasing price volatility. Supply concerns: The OPEC's warning about a possible market shortage during the summer indicates concern about the balance between supply and demand. If supply fails to meet expected demand, prices could further increase. Economic factors: Pressure on the US dollar, along with disappointing unemployment and US Producer Price Index (PPI) data, has contributed to weakening the dollar. However, a weaker dollar could make oil more attractive to international buyers, increasing demand and supporting prices. Technical outlook: Technical analysis suggests that oil prices are rising, with WTI approaching $90. If the resistance level at $87.12 is surpassed, prices are expected to reach $90 and even $94 in case of further geopolitical tensions. However, support levels at $83.34 and $80.63 could offer a rebound opportunity if prices were to decline.
TVC:USOILLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
XAUUSD| Waiting the CPI to change the course!Recent trend in the price of gold: The price of gold has seen strong gains up to a historical peak reached on Monday. This suggests a bullish momentum in the short term. Factors influencing the price of gold: Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations: Expectations that the Fed may delay interest rate cuts are limiting further gains in gold. This could be due to the overbought context and the high uncertainty regarding monetary policy outlook. US Treasury bond yields: Elevated US Treasury yields are supporting the US dollar and contributing to limiting the upside potential for XAU/USD. This suggests an inverse correlation between the dollar and gold, wherein a stronger dollar tends to depress the price of gold. Key technical levels: Supports and resistances: A correction in the price of gold is expected to lead it towards the previous historical peak of $2,332 or even towards the April 4 peak at $2,300, followed by the April 5 low at $2,269. On the other hand, if buyers maintain control, the historical peak at $2,350 will be the first resistance to overcome. Market fundamentals: US inflation data: The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data expected on Wednesday can have a significant impact on the price of gold. These data can confirm or refute expectations of a Fed interest rate cut. Fed comments and policies: Comments from Fed officials, such as those from Neel Kashkari, can provide insights into monetary policy outlook and influence market sentiment on gold. Geopolitical and economic factors: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and renewed central bank interest in gold can also influence the price of gold, providing additional support to the precious metal.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
2
GBPUSD| Bullish reaction after the NFPThe pound started the week with a slight bullish tone against the US dollar. This increase was favored by a slightly weaker dollar, accompanied by a moderate risk appetite in the market. This scenario allowed the pair to extend its recovery from the lows recorded after the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, bringing it back towards the 1.2600 level. Positive sentiment in the market has put pressure on the US dollar; however, it is likely that downward attempts will remain limited. Investors are preparing to maintain a cautious stance in anticipation of the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data scheduled for Wednesday. In the context of the analysis, it should be noted that US Nonfarm Payrolls unexpectedly showed strength last Friday, confirming the solid momentum of the US economy and further questioning the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate cut in June. In this context, another positive surprise in economic data on Wednesday could give a fresh boost to the US dollar. From a technical perspective, the GBP/USD pair is trading lower compared to the highs reached in early March. Key resistance is identified at 1.2682, a breakout of which could alleviate the downward pressure and push the exchange rate towards 1.2752, representing the 61.8% Fibonacci extension level of the March decline. Expected support levels are at 1.2572 and 1.2532.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Australian dollar slides on hot US inflation reportThe Australian dollar has declined sharply on Wednesday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6515, down 1.7%. The US consumer price index has accelerated for a second straight month. The March CPI rose 3.5%, up from 3.2% in February and above the market estimate of 3.4%. This was the highest inflation rate since September. On a monthly basis, CPI remained unchanged in March at 0.4%, higher than the market estimate of 0.4%. The increase in inflation was mainly due to rising energy and shelter costs. Core CPI, which is closely watched by the Federal Reserve, was unchanged at 3.8% in March and just above the market estimate of 3.7%. Monthly, core CPI rose 0.4%, matching the previous two months and above the market estimate of 0.3%. US inflation has accelerated for a second straight month, a reminder that although inflation appears under control, the final sprint to the 2% target will be a challenge for the Federal Reserve. The strong inflation report has pushed back expectations on the timing of a first rate cut, propelling the US dollar higher against the major currencies and sending the Australian dollar reeling. The probability of a Fed rate cut in June has dropped from above 50% before the inflation report to 23% afterwards. Investors don’t consider a rate cut to be likely until September. In Australia, consumer inflation expectations will be released Thursday. The forecast for April stands at 4.1%, down from 4.3% in March, which was the lowest level since October 2021. As well, China releases CPI, which is expected to decline by 0.5% in March, down from 1% in February. A reading below zero would point to deflation and weakness in China’s economy. AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6560 and is putting pressure on support at 0.6500 0.6638 and 0.6698 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
NZ dollar climbs ahead of RBNZ rate decisionThe New Zealand dollar has posted considerable gains on Tuesday. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6065, up 0.54% and its highest level since March 21. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets early on Wednesday and it’s practically a given that it will hold the cash rate at 5.5%. This would mark the sixth straight time that the RBNZ maintains rates and prolongs its “higher for longer stance”. Investors will be interested in whether the RBNZ pushes back against market expectations of rate cuts – investors have priced in two cuts with a 70% probability of a third this year. The decision will not include updated economic forecasts or a news conference with Governor Orr, which could limit New Zealand dollar volatility around the meeting. The markets are being aggressive in their pricing of rate cuts, mainly due to a weak economy, as GDP has contracted in four of the past five quarters. However, high inflation is a key reason why the RBNZ is hesitant to signal rate cuts are coming. In the fourth quarter, the inflation rate was 4.7%, well above the upper limit of the 1-3% target band. New Zealand releases first-quarter CPI next week, and the release will be a key factor in the central bank’s rate policy. The RBNZ would prefer to have the Federal Reserve cut rates first, as this would boost the New Zealand dollar and weigh on inflation. The Fed has signaled rate cuts are coming but stronger than expected data, such as last week’s nonfarm payrolls, may lead the Fed to delay lowering rates. NZD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6060. Above, there is resistance at 0.6107 0.6000 and 0.5953 are providing support
by OANDA
Must-know events for the trading week Must-know events for the trading week The week ahead in the US will be marked by significant events, including the release of the FOMC meeting minutes and March inflation data. Alongside the meeting minutes, investors will continue to analyze speeches from various Fed officials: Recent remarks from Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari revealed that he had anticipated two interest rate cuts this year. However, he noted that if inflation remains sluggish, no cuts may be necessary. This outcome would really surprise the market, which is mostly still expecting three cuts, starting in June. Headline inflation is expected to rise for a second consecutive period to 3.4%, while the core rate is projected to decline to 3.7%, reaching its lowest level since April 2021. In Europe, all eyes will be on the European Central Bank's meeting, where current interest rates are anticipated to be maintained. The likelihood of future rate cuts will be assessed by the market at the same time. In Japan, investors will be monitoring potential intervention actions from the Bank of Japan to support the yen. Governor Kazuo Ueda will also be speaking during the week regarding the central bank's future steps. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to leave the official cash rate unchanged at 5.5%. The RBNZ's latest forecast from February suggests that the OCR will remain steady until early to mid-2025, despite expressing increased confidence based on recent data.
TVC:DXY
by BlackBull_Markets
2
Last Leg (Update) - USDCHF Year So FarHey everyone!! Here I talk about USDCHF and give a little update on my Trade Idea "Last Leg To The Finish Line" Since it went over so well and continuing to follow suit, I wanted to do a Video Update on the idea to give a little insight on what I was seeing as the pair unfolded for the year and what I'm looking for in the near future!! Please let me know what you think and thank you so much for all the Support!! .. It all started with a little Double Bottom on the Hourly Chart
Long
by Novi_Fibonacci
1
FOMC FORWARD GUIDANCE SINCE 2018 w/FED SPEAKERS w/SPX The chart provided visually represents the forward guidance issued by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) alongside the performance of various key economic indicators and market indices. The FOMC forward guidance serves as a crucial tool for signaling the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance and future intentions, thereby influencing market expectations and economic behavior. By examining the interplay between FOMC forward guidance and these key economic indicators, investors, policymakers, and analysts can gain insights into the likely direction of monetary policy and its potential impact on financial markets and the broader economy. I have also included comments from various FOMC speakers to better form a picture of the past.
SP:SPX
by koyking
THE KOG REPORT - NFP (Are we going higher?)The KOG REPORT – NFP This is our view for NFP, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price. We’ve done well on Gold so this NFP we’re really not looking for get involved in the play unless we see price approach extreme levels! We’ve managed a long, we’ve managed a short but with this move, it’s likely we’re going to see some stop loss hunt activations and swings in both directions, so please play defence. We have the immediate resistance levels above 2305-8 which if targeted and held would be the first reaction point we can see on the chart, that’s if the support level 2270-65 manages to hold up the price on the release. Ideally, we want to see that level above break higher and tap into that extreme level above 2230-37 which is where, if we see a decent set up and clean reversal, we feel the opportunity to short the market will come from. On the flip, looking below, again the support level 2270-65 could be the swoop, and if broken, we will be looking to hold any runners from above down into the 2230-35 region and below that 2220-25 as per the KOG Report on Sunday where, if price is held, supported and we see a clean set up, we feel an opportunity to long the market again is on the cards. It’s a simple one this time, not going to risk getting into the market for cheap pips with the way they have been behaving lately. Look for the extreme levels or stay away and come back on Monday. Remember, the trade comes after the event! Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
10
GBPUSD: Road Map from 1.2640 to 1.244The British Pound experienced a significant decline during the mid-North American session, primarily due to the outlook of US economic data, which could influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. Optimism regarding the strength of the US economy bolstered the US Dollar, while US Treasury yields increased significantly, exerting additional pressure on the Cable (GBP/USD). Looking ahead, if sellers manage to push the exchange rate below 1.2550, the next target could be the threshold of 1.2500. However, if the pair surpasses the 200-DMA, we might witness a potential recovery, with 1.2600 as the next resistance zone, followed by the 100-DMA at 1.2649. Meanwhile, in the United States, economic data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed growth in economic activity in March, suggesting resilience in the US economy. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) exceeded expectations, also highlighting an increase in the Prices Paid Index, which could complicate the Federal Reserve's plans to adopt a more accommodative monetary policy. Best wishes and happy trading to all.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
EURUSD: The Level 1.07 will be the next target!The analysis on EUR/USD shows a strong bearish pressure that led the cross to touch its lowest level since mid-February, dropping below the level of 1.0750. The daily chart indicates that EUR/USD is confined within a 20 pip range below the level of 1.0803, which corresponds to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the previous rally from 1.0694 to 1.0981. In the 4-hour chart, the 20-period SMA is moving downwards above the current level while below the longer moving averages, further confirming the bearish trend. The current session is characterized by a lack of significant events, with EUR/USD oscillating around the level of 1.0780 due to the Easter holidays, which have made Asian and European markets quiet. In Asia, the Japanese Nikkei 225 recorded a decline due to a negative report on business sentiment, while Chinese stocks saw an increase following better-than-expected economic data. Overall, I expect a rebound at the level of 1.088, where trendline intersections may occur, leading to a decline towards the 1.07 zone. Best wishes and happy trading to all.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
5
Is The EV Hype Over? How The Fed Is Destroying TeslaThe first quarter of 2024 is now over, closing in a record +10% YTD rally and an exceptional +43% YOY increase in the QQQ. Despite the markets pushing higher, Tesla is experiencing significant challenges, with a -30% decrease YTD and a -9% decline YOY. This performance has positioned Tesla as the worst performing megacap so far. Given these circumstances, it's essential to delve into both macroeconomic factors and technical analysis to understand what has happened and what is likely to happen moving forward. The Macroeconomic Impact on Tesla Two years ago, the Federal Reserve initiated a historic rate-hiking cycle, increasing interest rates from 0% to 5.5% within just over a year and maintaining this rate since July 2023. This shift in monetary policy has notably affected car financing rates, now at 8.2% for a five-year loan, which significantly discourages consumers from buying new vehicles, especially EVs. The chart clearly illustrates an inverse correlation between Tesla stock and interest rates. Moreover, Tesla has operated exclusively during periods of historically low interest rates. Despite the Federal Reserve pausing rate hikes nine months ago, the interest rate on car loans continues to rise. Further examination of inflation trends indicates that most common inflation measures have either plateaued or slowed their pace of deceleration, at a level inconsistent with the Fed's 2% inflation target. The M2 money supply and inflation expectations are critical indicators for predicting the direction of inflation. The peak in the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) followed the peak in M2 YOY by 16 months, recently bottoming just three months before CPI YOY stopped making progress to the downside. This lagged correlation suggests that headline CPI is unlikely to continue its strong downward trend moving forward. Moreover, inflation expectations, which remain well anchored, have also appeared to stop making progress to the downside, all remaining above 2%. This, combined with unchanged interest rates for nine months, suggests that the neutral rate of interest must be significantly higher than the pre-COVID trend. Historically, recessions have played a key role in helping the Fed bring down inflation to their 2% target. However, current economic indicators, including low unemployment levels and easy financial conditions, suggest that a recession is unlikely in the near future, despite the fed funds rate staying unchanged at a two-decade high. The Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) captures the stimulative effects on the economy from the U.S. government's expansive fiscal policy. By borrowing and spending trillions directly from the Reverse Repo (RRP), the U.S. government has ingeniously counterbalanced the constrictive effects of tighter monetary policy without exerting upward pressure on long-term yields. The prolonged inversion of the yield curve, significantly extended by the U.S. government's financial strategies, could mark this cycle as having the longest inversion in history. Typically, a steepening yield curve is a precursor to higher unemployment and economic recession. However, the steepening of the yield curve remains unlikely in the short term, with excess reserves still available in the RRP and the Treasury General Account (TGA). With the U.S. employment sector still robust, showing historically low unemployment levels and low initial and continued claims, the likelihood of a significant uptrend in the unemployment rate seems low, as job openings are absorbing most of the excess labor supply and still remain well above the historical trend. This suggests that the fed funds rate may remain at around 5% this year, maintaining car loan rates at a higher level for an extended period and consequently making EVs increasingly less affordable for the average consumer. This scenario is likely to lead to a continuation of price cuts and greater margin contractions. Tesla's Technical Analysis Outlook From a technical analysis perspective, Tesla stock faced rejection at the $205 horizontal resistance line and might be rejected from the $180 level, marked by the 0.236 Fibonacci level. The next significant support level is at $155, with a possibility of revisiting the January 2023 low of $110, given Tesla's stock has been in a downward trend ever since November 2021. From a trend-based perspective, we can clearly see that TSLA stock is in a strong downtrend both in the 4H and daily timeframe with the EMAs and 20- week SMA trending lower. Despite this unfavourable outlook, caution is advised when considering short positions in Tesla due to its market dominance and relatively stable financial position, making it a riskier target than other less financially secure EV manufacturers. Concluding Thoughts While the broader market demonstrates resilience, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is significantly shaping the EVs industry future. With the economy likely transitioning away from historically low interest rates into a higher interest rate environment, caution is advised. Investors may benefit from considering less interest-rate-sensitive options until a clearer picture of the inflationary landscape and its impact on the economy emerges. Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by ingeforberg
2
EUR/USD | Heading Towards 1.10 Without Fed Rate CutsThe beginning of the week saw the US dollar strengthen, pushing the EUR/USD below the key support level of 1.0900. A break of the March peak at 1.0981 is expected to lead the pair to challenge resistance at 1.0998 and the psychological barrier at 1.1000. However, a potential drop below the 200-day moving average at 1.0838 could push the pair to the 2024 low of 1.0694. In the macroeconomic context, both the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) are considering starting their easing cycles, leading to a strengthening of the dollar in the medium term. Consequently, the EUR/USD may correct downwards towards 1.0700 and possibly towards 1.0500 in the long term. Technical analysis on the daily chart suggests a price decline towards the 1.0800 zone before bouncing off the trendline and resuming upward movement, with a target at 1.1000. Further updates will follow. Regards and happy trading to all from Nicola.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
8
GBPUSD: Is It Time to go Long?Detailed analysis of GBP/USD: Recent Performance: GBP/USD has shown a significant rebound, surpassing the 1.2700 level after touching its lowest point in two weeks below 1.2670 on Tuesday. This movement suggests a certain degree of short-term resilience, but the future direction remains uncertain. Investor Sentiment: Investors appear to remain cautious about taking significant positions ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and Bank of England (BoE) policy meetings. This caution may make it difficult for the pair to gather directional momentum. Technical Indicators: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart suggests that the pair may be nearing technically overbought territory, remaining slightly below the critical level of 30. This suggests the possibility of a technical correction in the future, as evidenced by previous instances of technical correction when the RSI fell into the 30 area on the 4-hour chart. Key Levels: In the event of an upward correction, the Fibonacci retracement level at 50% of the recent uptrend could act as the first resistance near 1.2710, followed by the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.2730 and 1.2750. On the downside, key support levels include 1.2670 (200-period SMA), 1.2620 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level), and 1.2600 (static level). Macroeconomic Context: The US dollar remains strong on a broad scale, influenced by the yield of the benchmark US ten-year Treasury note, which remains above 4.3%. This supports the US dollar and could continue to weigh on the GBP/USD pair. Potential Impacts: Safe-haven flows could dominate financial markets, maintaining the strength of the US dollar and pushing GBP/USD lower. In the absence of high-level data releases from the United States, investors may primarily react to changes in short-term risk perception. Future Events: Ahead of the Fed and BoE policy decisions, the UK's Office for National Statistics will release Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February on Wednesday morning. An expected annual CPI inflation decrease to 3.6% could further influence market perception regarding BoE monetary policy and thus affect GBP/USD. In summary, GBP/USD shows a bullish restart with a target of 1.29 after the cross on the uptrend line and the identified daily FVG, a perfect combo.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
GOLD: Road to $2300Gold trading experienced a pronounced negative trend below the $2,170 level during Friday's session, primarily influenced by the persistent strength of the US dollar. Nevertheless, the pair appears poised to record modest weekly gains after pulling back from the record high above $2,220 touched on Wednesday. From a technical standpoint, there seems to be a continuation of selling pressure below the overnight swing low, situated around the $2,166 area, or the 100-hour moving average. This could expose support at $2,146 or the weekly low. On the flip side, the psychological level of $2,200 currently seems to act as an immediate hurdle. Above this level, there might be an opportunity for bulls to target the record high, around the $2,223 zone touched on Thursday. Additionally, a generally positive risk tone and hopes for a ceasefire in Gaza further contributed to the bearish pressure on gold, considered a safe haven. The Federal Reserve (Fed) projected a less restrictive policy and three interest rate cuts for 2024, increasing speculation for a potential move at the June meeting. This scenario is supported by further declines in US Treasury yields, which could temper bullish sentiment on the US dollar and provide some support to the gold price, despite its lack of yield.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
USDCAD| FED vs BOC, who will win?The USD/CAD is currently hovering around 1.3540 during the Asian hours on Friday, indicating potential signs of a halt to its four-day consecutive negative trend. This stabilization could be attributed to the positive sentiment surrounding the US dollar, fueled by the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on maintaining higher interest rates. Specifically, the US annualized GDP recorded a growth of 3.4% in the fourth quarter, surpassing market expectations. Governor Christopher Waller's cautious remarks about delaying rate cuts have helped temper expectations of rate reductions in 2024. On the other hand, the Canadian dollar has seen an uptick due to prospects of foreign currency inflows, supported by the rise in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices. This growth is linked to expectations that OPEC+ will continue production cuts. These developments have bolstered confidence in Canada's economic outlook, reducing expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy from the Bank of Canada (BoC). Therefore, I anticipate a decline towards 1.34 before a recovery towards 1.36. On a weekly basis, the market is consolidating, with too much uncertainty surrounding the future policies of central banks at the moment. It's important to remain cautious and prudent. Best wishes to all for successful trading.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
USD/CAD edges lower on strong Canadian GDPThe Canadian dollar is slightly higher on Thursday. USD/CAD is trading at 1.3537 in the North American session, down 0.23%. Canada’s GDP bounced back with a strong gain of 0.6% m/m in January, after a 0.1% in December. This beat the market estimate of 0.4%. The preliminary estimate for February’s GDP stands at 0.4%, which means that so far, growth in the first quarter is looking solid. This is a major turnaround for the Canadian economy, which narrowly avoided a technical recession in the second half of 2023. The Bank of Canada meets next on April 10th and the improvement in GDP would support the BoC taking its time before cutting rates. The BoC has held the benchmark rate at 5% six straight times and is looking for the economy to cool and inflation to fall further before it lowers rates. At the same time, households are groaning under the weight of high interest rates, which is putting some pressure on the BoC to provide some relief by lowering rates. The US also released GDP for the fourth quarter, with the third and final estimate being revised upwards to 3.4% y/y, up from 3.2% in the second estimate and beating the market estimate of 3.2%. The GDP release was respectable but sharply lower than the 4.9% gain in Q3, which indicates that the US economy is cooling down due to elevated interest rates. The Federal Reserve has sounded more hawkish about rate policy lately. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Wednesday that inflation had not fallen as quickly as expected and “there is no rush to cut the policy rate”. Earlier in the week, Atlanta Fed President Rafael Bostic lowered his forecast to just one rate cut in 2024, after saying in February that he expected two rate cuts this year. USD/CAD is testing support at 1.3559. Below, there is support at 1.3503 1.3661 and 1.3717 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
Tokyo Inflation to trigger yen Intervention? But at what price?Recent remarks made by Masato Kanda, Japan's vice-finance minister for international affairs, have led to heightened cautiousness regarding potential actions by authorities to support the yen through intervention. The USD/JPY has comfortably surpassed the 150.000 threshold, which historically has prompting interventions by the Bank of Japan to limit the weakness in the yen. This precedent was observed in 2022 when the currency reached 151.950 against the US dollar. But have the intervention goal posts moved? Maybe only slightly. Credit Agricole’s FAST FX model suggests a selling strategy for USD/JPY if it crosses 152.20. Anticipated inflation data for Tokyo, scheduled for release later this week, could serve as a potential trigger for intervention. A higher-than-expected reading may positively impact the JPY, indicating bullish sentiment and potentially help the BoJ avoid the need to intervene. Conversely, a lower-than-anticipated figure could exert a bearish influence on the JPY.
by BlackBull_Markets
USD/JPY drifting at start of weekThe Japanese yen is showing limited movement on Monday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 151.25, down 0.13%. Last week’s Bank of Japan was dramatic as the central bank raised interest rates for the first time since 2007. The move did not catch the markets completely by surprise, as some media reports ahead of the meeting said the BoJ would raise rates and investors were looking at both the March and April meetings as strong possibilities for a rate hike. The yen did not respond to the rate hike with gains, as might have been expected. There are several reasons for this. First, the actual tightening was limited, with rates rising from -0.10% to 0.10%. This means that although the BoJ rate is now in positive territory, the move had little impact on the wide USD/JPY rate differential. BoJ Governor Ueda said after the meeting that despite the hike, monetary policy would remain accommodative, saying that there was “some distance to go” until inflation climbs to the 2% target. As well, many investors approached the BoJ meeting with a “buy the rumour, sell the fact” approach and this resulted in heavy selling of the yen after the rate announcement. The yen slipped 1.60% last week and dropped as low as 151.86, its lowest level since November 2023. The Japanese yen has dropped to levels that could invite intervention - the Ministry of Finance intervened last September and October when the yen dropped to around the 152 line. If the yen continues to lose ground, the threat of intervention will become greater. In the US, the markets have priced in three rate cuts this year, and the Fed also projected three cuts this year at last week’s meeting. However, Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic sounded hawkish on Friday when he said that he expects only one quarter-point cut this year. Bostic said that he was “definitely less confident than I was in December” that inflation will continue to drop towards the 2% target, as he noted that inflation remains stubbornly high and the US economy has been more resilient than he expected. USD/JPY is putting pressure on resistance at 151.44. Above, there is resistance at 151.88 151.02 and 15058 are providing support
by OANDA
USDJPY is ready to go down after September rates cutResumption of the rate up to 151.00 and rebound of the US Dollar: The US Dollar has shown a recovery, bringing the USD/JPY rate back up to 151.00. This suggests an increase in demand for US Dollars compared to the Japanese Yen, which could be influenced by a range of economic and geopolitical factors. Upward revision of US economic outlook: The upward revision of the US economic outlook has further supported the US Dollar. This can be interpreted as a sign of confidence in the strength of the US economy, which may attract investors towards the Dollar. Expectations of Japanese intervention and accommodative stance of the BoJ: Despite growing expectations of intervention by Japan to limit the strength of the Yen, the accommodative stance of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) appears to limit the effectiveness of such measures. This could indicate a challenge for Japan in managing the exchange rate of its currency. Region-specific demand in global markets: There is region-specific demand in global markets, with risk-sensitive assets in Europe under pressure and a surprising reduction in interest rates by the Swiss National Bank. These events may impact the movement of the USD/JPY rate as they reflect capital flows and global economic dynamics. Federal Reserve (Fed) projections and monetary policy: Federal Reserve projections indicate an upward revision of the US growth rate, which could influence monetary policy decisions and movements of the US Dollar. Speculation about imminent interest rate cuts may also weigh on the US Dollar. Speculation about Japanese intervention and statements from the Japanese Finance Minister: Speculation about Japanese intervention in the foreign exchange market and statements from the Japanese Finance Minister reflect attention on the USD/JPY exchange rate and may influence investor confidence in the Japanese Yen.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Swiss franc slides after SNB lowers ratesThe Swiss franc has tumbled on Thursday after the Swiss National Bank lowered interest rates. In the North American session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.8987, up 1.35% on the day. Earlier, the Swiss franc fell as low as 0.8994, its lowest level since November 23. There has been plenty of speculation as to when the Fed and other major central banks will lower interest rates, but in the end the Swiss National Bank that took the plunge first, with a quarter-point cut on Thursday. The move was a surprise as investors hadn’t expected the SNB to cut rates until June at the earliest. The SNB lowered the cash rate from 1.75% to 1.50%, sending the Swiss franc sharply lower. SNB President Thomas Jordan said after the meeting that the rate cut was in response to an “effective” battle against inflation. Inflation has been falling and is currently at 1.2%. The central bank also revised lower its inflation forecast to 1.4% in 2024 and 1.2% in 2025. The SNB also noted that the appreciation of the Swiss franc had dampened growth. We could add that the strong Swiss franc has also dampened inflation and allowed the SNB to shift policy and start lowering rates. The Federal Reserve held the benchmark rate at a target range of 5% to 5.25% on Wednesday, as was widely expected. The Fed maintained its projection of three rate cuts this year and revised its GDP forecast for 2024 to 2.1%, up from 1.4% in December. Fed Chair Powell noted that inflation was falling and the US economy was strong, but cautioned that the Fed would not start to cut rates until it was clear that inflation was moving sustainably towards the 2% target. The markets have priced in an initial rate cut for June, with a probability of around 75%. USD/CHF has pushed above 0.8918 and tested resistance at 0.8982 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 0.9095 0.8876 and 0.8812 are providing support
by OANDA
The FOMC meeting, rising wedge, and VIX dropYesterday’s FOMC meeting ended as widely anticipated, with no change to monetary policy. During the press conference, the FED’s chairman reiterated the central bank’s commitment to bringing inflation under control and outlined a strong economy and tight labor market. Jerome Powell also described inflation as being on a downward trajectory and explained the need to stay attentive to inflation rates. In addition to that, he acknowledged the emergence of some negative effects of high interest rates on the economy. Markets reacted positively to Jerome Powell’s statements and rallied across the board. The SPX broke above $5,200 and established a new all-time high at $5,226. Simultaneously, the VIX experienced a significant drop that led to the distortion of its broadening structure on the daily chart. While the SPX remains over-extended above the upward-sloping channel, this drop could foreshadow the SPX’s move slightly higher, in the area between $5,300 and $5,350. Particular things to watch out for in the following days include the next developments with the VIX, the rejection/success of RSI breaking above 70 points (on the daily time frame), the support at $5,180, and the pattern resembling a rising wedge (on the 4-hour time frame). Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the VIX’s daily graph. The yellow arrow indicates a breakout below the lower trendline, distorting the structure with higher peaks and higher troughs. Illustration 1.02 The picture above shows the 4-hour chart of the SPX. Yellow dashed lines highlight the pattern resembling a rising wedge formation. Here are some of the most important statements from Jerome Powell’s speech: “Inflation has eased substantially while the labor market has remained strong, and that is very good news. But inflation is still too high, ongoing progress in bringing it down is not assured, and the path forward is uncertain. We are fully committed to returning inflation to our 2 percent goal.” “Our restrictive stance of monetary policy has been putting downward pressure on economic activity and inflation. As labor market tightness has eased and progress on inflation has continued, the risks to achieving our employment and inflation goals are moving into better balance.” “Activity in the housing sector was subdued over the past year, largely reflecting high mortgage rates. High interest rates also appear to have weighed on business fixed investment. In our Summary of Economic Projections, Committee participants generally expect GDP growth to slow from last year’s pace, with a median projection of 2.1 percent this year and 2 percent over the next two years.” “Over the past three months, payroll job gains averaged 265 thousand jobs per month. The unemployment rate has edged up but remains low, at 3.9 percent. Strong job creation has been accompanied by an increase in the supply of workers, reflecting increases in participation among individuals aged 25 to 54 years and a continued strong pace of immigration” “We believe that our policy rate is likely at its peak for this tightening cycle and that, if the economy evolves broadly as expected, it will likely be appropriate to begin dialing back policy restraint at some point this year. The economic outlook is uncertain, however, and we remain highly attentive to inflation risks. We are prepared to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for longer, if appropriate.” “We know that reducing policy restraint too soon or too much could result in a reversal of the progress we have seen on inflation and ultimately require even tighter policy to get inflation back to 2 percent.” “ If the economy evolves as projected, the median participant projects that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate will be 4.6 percent at the end of this year, 3.9 percent at the end of 2025, and 3.1 percent at the end of 2026—still above the median longer-term funds rate.” “Turning to our balance sheet, our securities holdings have declined by nearly $1.5 trillion since the Committee began reducing our portfolio.” Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXLong
by Tradersweekly