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USD/JPY drifting at start of weekThe Japanese yen is showing limited movement on Monday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 151.25, down 0.13%. Last week’s Bank of Japan was dramatic as the central bank raised interest rates for the first time since 2007. The move did not catch the markets completely by surprise, as some media reports ahead of the meeting said the BoJ would raise rates and investors were looking at both the March and April meetings as strong possibilities for a rate hike. The yen did not respond to the rate hike with gains, as might have been expected. There are several reasons for this. First, the actual tightening was limited, with rates rising from -0.10% to 0.10%. This means that although the BoJ rate is now in positive territory, the move had little impact on the wide USD/JPY rate differential. BoJ Governor Ueda said after the meeting that despite the hike, monetary policy would remain accommodative, saying that there was “some distance to go” until inflation climbs to the 2% target. As well, many investors approached the BoJ meeting with a “buy the rumour, sell the fact” approach and this resulted in heavy selling of the yen after the rate announcement. The yen slipped 1.60% last week and dropped as low as 151.86, its lowest level since November 2023. The Japanese yen has dropped to levels that could invite intervention - the Ministry of Finance intervened last September and October when the yen dropped to around the 152 line. If the yen continues to lose ground, the threat of intervention will become greater. In the US, the markets have priced in three rate cuts this year, and the Fed also projected three cuts this year at last week’s meeting. However, Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic sounded hawkish on Friday when he said that he expects only one quarter-point cut this year. Bostic said that he was “definitely less confident than I was in December” that inflation will continue to drop towards the 2% target, as he noted that inflation remains stubbornly high and the US economy has been more resilient than he expected. USD/JPY is putting pressure on resistance at 151.44. Above, there is resistance at 151.88 151.02 and 15058 are providing support
by OANDA
USDJPY is ready to go down after September rates cutResumption of the rate up to 151.00 and rebound of the US Dollar: The US Dollar has shown a recovery, bringing the USD/JPY rate back up to 151.00. This suggests an increase in demand for US Dollars compared to the Japanese Yen, which could be influenced by a range of economic and geopolitical factors. Upward revision of US economic outlook: The upward revision of the US economic outlook has further supported the US Dollar. This can be interpreted as a sign of confidence in the strength of the US economy, which may attract investors towards the Dollar. Expectations of Japanese intervention and accommodative stance of the BoJ: Despite growing expectations of intervention by Japan to limit the strength of the Yen, the accommodative stance of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) appears to limit the effectiveness of such measures. This could indicate a challenge for Japan in managing the exchange rate of its currency. Region-specific demand in global markets: There is region-specific demand in global markets, with risk-sensitive assets in Europe under pressure and a surprising reduction in interest rates by the Swiss National Bank. These events may impact the movement of the USD/JPY rate as they reflect capital flows and global economic dynamics. Federal Reserve (Fed) projections and monetary policy: Federal Reserve projections indicate an upward revision of the US growth rate, which could influence monetary policy decisions and movements of the US Dollar. Speculation about imminent interest rate cuts may also weigh on the US Dollar. Speculation about Japanese intervention and statements from the Japanese Finance Minister: Speculation about Japanese intervention in the foreign exchange market and statements from the Japanese Finance Minister reflect attention on the USD/JPY exchange rate and may influence investor confidence in the Japanese Yen.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
Swiss franc slides after SNB lowers ratesThe Swiss franc has tumbled on Thursday after the Swiss National Bank lowered interest rates. In the North American session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.8987, up 1.35% on the day. Earlier, the Swiss franc fell as low as 0.8994, its lowest level since November 23. There has been plenty of speculation as to when the Fed and other major central banks will lower interest rates, but in the end the Swiss National Bank that took the plunge first, with a quarter-point cut on Thursday. The move was a surprise as investors hadn’t expected the SNB to cut rates until June at the earliest. The SNB lowered the cash rate from 1.75% to 1.50%, sending the Swiss franc sharply lower. SNB President Thomas Jordan said after the meeting that the rate cut was in response to an “effective” battle against inflation. Inflation has been falling and is currently at 1.2%. The central bank also revised lower its inflation forecast to 1.4% in 2024 and 1.2% in 2025. The SNB also noted that the appreciation of the Swiss franc had dampened growth. We could add that the strong Swiss franc has also dampened inflation and allowed the SNB to shift policy and start lowering rates. The Federal Reserve held the benchmark rate at a target range of 5% to 5.25% on Wednesday, as was widely expected. The Fed maintained its projection of three rate cuts this year and revised its GDP forecast for 2024 to 2.1%, up from 1.4% in December. Fed Chair Powell noted that inflation was falling and the US economy was strong, but cautioned that the Fed would not start to cut rates until it was clear that inflation was moving sustainably towards the 2% target. The markets have priced in an initial rate cut for June, with a probability of around 75%. USD/CHF has pushed above 0.8918 and tested resistance at 0.8982 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 0.9095 0.8876 and 0.8812 are providing support
by OANDA
The FOMC meeting, rising wedge, and VIX dropYesterday’s FOMC meeting ended as widely anticipated, with no change to monetary policy. During the press conference, the FED’s chairman reiterated the central bank’s commitment to bringing inflation under control and outlined a strong economy and tight labor market. Jerome Powell also described inflation as being on a downward trajectory and explained the need to stay attentive to inflation rates. In addition to that, he acknowledged the emergence of some negative effects of high interest rates on the economy. Markets reacted positively to Jerome Powell’s statements and rallied across the board. The SPX broke above $5,200 and established a new all-time high at $5,226. Simultaneously, the VIX experienced a significant drop that led to the distortion of its broadening structure on the daily chart. While the SPX remains over-extended above the upward-sloping channel, this drop could foreshadow the SPX’s move slightly higher, in the area between $5,300 and $5,350. Particular things to watch out for in the following days include the next developments with the VIX, the rejection/success of RSI breaking above 70 points (on the daily time frame), the support at $5,180, and the pattern resembling a rising wedge (on the 4-hour time frame). Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the VIX’s daily graph. The yellow arrow indicates a breakout below the lower trendline, distorting the structure with higher peaks and higher troughs. Illustration 1.02 The picture above shows the 4-hour chart of the SPX. Yellow dashed lines highlight the pattern resembling a rising wedge formation. Here are some of the most important statements from Jerome Powell’s speech: “Inflation has eased substantially while the labor market has remained strong, and that is very good news. But inflation is still too high, ongoing progress in bringing it down is not assured, and the path forward is uncertain. We are fully committed to returning inflation to our 2 percent goal.” “Our restrictive stance of monetary policy has been putting downward pressure on economic activity and inflation. As labor market tightness has eased and progress on inflation has continued, the risks to achieving our employment and inflation goals are moving into better balance.” “Activity in the housing sector was subdued over the past year, largely reflecting high mortgage rates. High interest rates also appear to have weighed on business fixed investment. In our Summary of Economic Projections, Committee participants generally expect GDP growth to slow from last year’s pace, with a median projection of 2.1 percent this year and 2 percent over the next two years.” “Over the past three months, payroll job gains averaged 265 thousand jobs per month. The unemployment rate has edged up but remains low, at 3.9 percent. Strong job creation has been accompanied by an increase in the supply of workers, reflecting increases in participation among individuals aged 25 to 54 years and a continued strong pace of immigration” “We believe that our policy rate is likely at its peak for this tightening cycle and that, if the economy evolves broadly as expected, it will likely be appropriate to begin dialing back policy restraint at some point this year. The economic outlook is uncertain, however, and we remain highly attentive to inflation risks. We are prepared to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for longer, if appropriate.” “We know that reducing policy restraint too soon or too much could result in a reversal of the progress we have seen on inflation and ultimately require even tighter policy to get inflation back to 2 percent.” “ If the economy evolves as projected, the median participant projects that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate will be 4.6 percent at the end of this year, 3.9 percent at the end of 2025, and 3.1 percent at the end of 2026—still above the median longer-term funds rate.” “Turning to our balance sheet, our securities holdings have declined by nearly $1.5 trillion since the Committee began reducing our portfolio.” Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXLong
by Tradersweekly
Strifor || GBPUSD-21/03/2024Preferred direction: BUY Comment: After the Fed meeting , the pound, like most majors, strengthened its position and in the near future, this trend is likely to continue. Of course, surprises from the Bank of England today cannot be ruled out, so the focus on the British currency today is the greatest. It is unlikely that the regulator will suddenly lower the rate, as the Swiss Central Bank did. For the current long-deal, we consider, as always, two scenarios . Volatility cannot be ruled out in any case, so one needs to open positions extremely conservatively, and it is best to gradually accumulate position (step-by-step). Scenario №2 , as one might guess, is a kind of "plan B" , and is intended to unexpected the Bank of England's maneuvers. The target at the level of 1.28000 is the closest potential obstacle for the buyer, so we set the current Take Profit there. But longer-term prospects still locate higher, around the 1.30000 level. Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
Long
by Strifor
1
Strifor || EURUSD-21/03/2024Preferred direction: BUY Comment: As we expected, the Fed nevertheless served as a catalyst for the start of a correction in the American currency . All long trades on the EURUSD currency pair are closed, but despite this, we continue to adhere to the buy priority. At the moment, we also have two scenarios in our arsenal, where scenario №1 assumes maximum growth from the current price, and scenario №2 assumes a deeper correction before growth. The buyer is still strong, and the local highs are expected to update in the area of the 1.10000 level, where our current target is actually located. Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
Long
by Strifor
3
Strifor || GOLD-Fed meetingPreferred direction: BUY Comment: Before the Fed meeting on gold, we activated scenario №1 , which we published at the beginning of the week. Here, the long-trade was executed from the level of 2150 . This support is a limit area for long-player, but no one has canceled its break down, and the likelihood of this saves. Just for this, we have scenario №2 , which assumes making the next buy in the area of level 2120 . We do not consider the growth target above the level of 2200 . Most likely, the price will stop at this resistance and go back to a correction. It should also be noted that the long-term prospects for metals look quite rosy. Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Strifor
1
Strifor || GBPUSD-Fed meetingPreferred direction: BUY Comment: The British currency , just like the euro , saves all the parameters of a long trade that we gave at the beginning of the week. The likely drawdown may be down to the level of 1.26000 , according to scenario №2 . However, scenario №1 is already active. It is preferable to consider the entry method "step-by-step", that is, stretch the grid to gain a medium-term long position up to the level of 1.25000 . It is unlikely that the price will go down there, but one needs to be ready for it too. This will be a very aggressive short-situation, but nevertheless, medium-term long will be relevant. For now, we save the target at the level of 1.28000 . But we also note the fact that this instrument has much higher growth prospects. Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
Long
by Strifor
1
Strifor || EURUSD-Fed meetingPreferred direction: BUY Comment: The main event of the week will take place today, namely the Fed meeting and the decision on the interest rate. However, market participants will be most interested in the FOMC commentary and the press conference to find out the future prospects for US monetary policy. Regarding the EURUSD currency pair, we completely follow for the scenarios that we gave at the beginning of the week. According to both scenarios (details of each can be found on the chart), we expect the start of recovery in the area of 1.08000 - 1.08500 . It should be noted that this is a medium-term trading idea, according to which one can increase positions "step-by-step" with the target of growth at the levels of 1.09500 and 1.10000 . Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
Long
by Strifor
1
Strifor || GOLD-Week StartingPreferred direction: BUY Comment: Metals are still saved a strong buy priority in the long-term view, but also over a shorter distance, the buyer is likely to show their strength. Growth above 2200 is not being considered for gold . We are not changing our previous setup at the moment, that is, both scenarios are saved. At the moment, scenario №1 is activated, however, given the busy week (Central Banks meetings), scenario №2 will most likely still be relevant. Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for boost and share your views!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Strifor
1
Fed keeps rates steady, Banxico up next The US Federal Reserve has kept interest rates steady at 5.25%-5.50% while continuing its balance sheet reduction as planned since May 2023. In contrast, the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) might announce a rate cut tomorrow. It's anticipated that Banxico could decrease its interest rate from 11.25% to 11%, potentially applying pressure on the Mexican peso. This could drive the USD/MXN rate closer to the 17.00 mark, diverging further from its 10-year low. Some Fib levels from its recent swing higher could also be some interesting, more assessable, targets However, the possibility of a rate cut from Banxico is not guaranteed, given potential divisions within its Governing Council. Recent speeches by officials indicate a 3-2 split, with some members leaning towards a more accommodative approach, while others like Jonathan Heath and Irene Espinosa Cantellano favor a hawkish stance.
by BlackBull_Markets
Gold prices retreat amid strong US Dollar pre FOMC decisionGold prices fell late in the North American session on Tuesday amid a strong US Dollar but despite falling US Treasury bond yields. Market participants await the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday, followed by a press conference by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Meanwhile, XAU/USD prices are set to remain near $2,150 as traders remain uncommitted to posting fresh bets in favor or against the yellow metal. The non-yielding metal remains subdued as traders await the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision. In addition to delivering its monetary policy statement, policymakers are expected to update their projections about the United States economy. Growing concerns that the Fed will reduce its estimates for the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) keep traders on edge. Tuesday’s US economic docket featured the release of Building Permits in February, which rose by 1.9% MoM from 1.489 million to 1.496 million. Meanwhile, Housing Starts for the same period saw a significant increase of 10.7%, surpassing the expected 8.2%. The US 10-year Treasury bond yield has fallen two-and-a-half basis points to 4.296%. Recent inflation data in the US showed that inflation on the consumer and producer side surprised to the upside, suggesting that inflation is stickier than expected, failing to break below the 3% threshold.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by sabellaFX
THE KOG REPORT - FOMC The KOG REPORT – FOMC This is our view for FOMC, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price. Today’s FOMC may bring a curveball with it, so we’re going to use the extreme levels as usual, but, we’re going to say please play caution on the markets. The trade always comes after the event, patience will pay on this one! We have the support level below 2150-55 as mentioned through the week, with resistance above 2175 which are both either side of range play at the moment. Our bias is still active, but, due to the volatility that may present itself, we’ll stick with the higher levels as potentials regions for a RIP. So, if price does carry up towards the 2175-85 region and we can see a clean set up, an opportunity to short the market back down initially into the 2155 levels and then on the break, below that 2148 and further down could be available. Please note, that breaking above will invalidate this and we are likely to see higher pricing through the rest of the week. There was a level of 2210 in extension of the move, which is extreme volume enters is a possibility, so if you’re going to risk it, your risk model better be up to scratch! On the flip. Rejection around this 2165 region, we can see price attempt the support 2145 and upon the break we will be looking for this to go lower, initially into the 2135 region and then below that potentially 2120! If we get that move to the downside, we will be looking to carry any open trades down into the given regions if we get a clean set up, and only long for the scalps and quick captures from the given levels. In all honesty, right now thoughts are we would rather let this play out and let the take the price to where they want. We’ll still with the plan for now on the KOG Report which has worked well, but any trades should be protected and a majority taken. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
OANDA:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
2
VIX - forecast 2024The market's recent rally (indices are up 25% since November!) feels frustrating. It doesn't seem to reflect the economic realities we're facing. Inflation is cooling, but it's still above targets. The labor market is strong, which might seem good, but it could be unsustainable with high interest rates. We're seeing layoffs, which contradicts the market's optimism. Maybe I'm missing something, but the disconnect between the market and the economy is concerning. VIX has been rangebound since November 2023 and recently generated a positive MACD signal. Looking ahead, the FOMC statement and Fed rate decision are later today. Historically, these events haven't triggered major market swings. A significant correction might require unexpected data, particularly a surprising labor market report. Trade safe!
PEPPERSTONE:VIX
by Trinnisia_Trades
FED has to lower Rates or face Emergency QE.(Not a game) Jerome Powell lied to say he raised rates due to "Inflation", this was a great cover however he clearly saw the USDJPY crisis coming like I saw from last year. (Inverted Charts) The DXY Rising + the USDJPY rising will unwind the carry trade that will sell off the majority of people holding US bonds via Japan. This will force the FED to initiate YCC locally. Japan CANNOT keep rates low at this point or they will enter the no way out hyperinflation by 2025. America CANNOT rise rates increasing the USDJPY past the point of no return (currently at 160) Yes we are at 151 and the complete fail point is 160. Everyone has been expecting a recession, where is it? Everyone is expecting a rate hike, will the FED do it? Path 1 -- FED Hike or Hold, USDJPY falls below the point of no return, Japan is now forced to try raise rates while restarting YCC + Stimulus (at this point the Yen is now a failed currency and it could lead to mass political instability that causes a carry trade sell off) Path 2 -- FED lowers rate's, USDJPY starts to revert pressure on the Japanese currency (at this point the FED is now taking the hit of debasement to try stabilize Japan). Our financial system has been sick since the gold depeg, it has gotten sicker after 2009, 2020 has put us into critical times. I wish this was real but we are at the end of the MMT cycle. The US is forced into a corner to not raise rates to deal with risk markets rising while DEBT interest + US Gov to DEBT ratio make's raising rates unaffordable. Japan after WW2 has become the YCC hub for America and rightfully so it worked due to the innovation that came out of Japan that brought them enough wealth to forget this policy. This is the part where if Jerome Powell say's the wrong thing today, it could be time to exit majority of capital from the legacy system for future protection. Capital Controls? Communism? Banking Limits? Spot Bitcoin ETF limitations? Executive Order 6102? I'm genuinely concerned that majority of people want rate hikes that will destabilize the entire world due to debt and cause a communist style global financial shutdown to contain the disaster. What a failed monetary policy era we live in.
by FederalXBT
USD/JPY soars as BoJ scraps negative ratesThe Japanese yen has taken a tumble on Tuesday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 150.67, up 1.02%. The Bank of Japan hiked interest rates for the first time since 2007 at today’s meeting and also abolished the yield control curve to target interest rate at specific levels. There was a strong possibility that the BoJ might wait until April to tighten policy, but the fact that the BoJ did not deny media reports that the central bank would act today meant that the markets were not shocked that the move occurred today. Interestingly, the yen has nosedived despite the BoJ tightening policy. This can be explained by the fact that the BoJ may have ended negative rates but the move was small, as rates have risen from -0.1% to a range of 0%-0.1%. This means that today’s rate hike did little to narrow the US/Japan interest rate differential. The BoJ’s announcement made huge headlines but at the end of the day the central bank kept a dovish tone, which also weighed on the yen. Governor Ueda stressed that the BoJ’s monetary policy will remain accommodative, even with the end of negative rates. Ueda noted that “there is still some distance to 2%, which would require maintaining an accommodative policy”. This means that the BoJ will not be entering a tightening cycle with a series of hikes as we’ve seen with the other major central banks in their battle to tame inflation. In the US, it’s a very light week, with no tier-1 events on the data calendar. The markets will be keeping a close eye on the Federal Reserve’s rate announcement on Wednesday. The Fed is virtually certain to maintain the benchmark rate of 5%-5.25%, and investors will be combing the rate statement for any insights about a date for an initial rate cut. USD/JPY has pushed above resistance at 149.98, which was protecting the 150 line. Above, there is resistance at 150.92 148.24 and 147.30 are providing support
by OANDA
Market Surprise? June Rate Cut Might Be Delayed Market Surprise? June Rate Cut Might Be Delayed After today’s BOJ and RBA interest rate decisions, eyes will turn to the Fed’s decision on Wednesday. Although the US central bank is expected to keep rates unchanged, it could change its outlook due to the upside surprise in the latest CPI and PPI reports. For now, the first cut is still seen happening in June, but there is a possibility that this gets pushed back a month or two again. Maybe the market would be the only one surprised by this possibility. But what USD pair could be interesting this week? The Canadian Dollar is facing pressure in anticipation of the February inflation figures set to release on Tuesday. Analysts expect the annual headline inflation to have risen to 3.1% from January's 2.9%. This could postpone the Bank of Canada's intentions to lower interest rates, potentially leading to a clash with the Federal Reserve's monetary policy plans. Depending on where market sentiment lay after we get the US and Canada data, the 100-day SMA could continue to support bulls. If sentiment turns, we have the 50- and 200-day SMA, which sits just above the ascending triangle trend, as a target for another support.
by BlackBull_Markets
Will Bitcoin Continue Its Pullback?Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a remarkable surge since the speculation surrounding a potential Federal Reserve interest rate cut emerged. Recently, BTC hit an all-time high, reflecting the fervor in the market. However, it's essential to note that assets witnessing substantial increases often require a pullback or correction. Analyzing the daily timeframe from March 4th to March 13th, 2024, reveals indications of a bearish divergence pattern, suggesting an impending pullback. This anticipation materialized on March 14th and 15th, 2024, with BTC dropping from its all-time high of 73794 to 68166 at the time of writing, marking a decline of over 7% in just two days. Assessment of Fed Rate Cut Possibility: Despite the potential for a Federal Reserve rate cut should inflation continue to decline, the likelihood remains slim. Data from the Fed Watch Tools indicate a 99.0% probability of the Fed maintaining an unchanged interest rate during the March FOMC meeting. This prediction also aligns with the fact that the Fed's emphasis on reducing the Core PCE Price Index to its target of 2% year-on-year, while it currently stands at 2.8%. Technical Analysis and Implications: In addition to the factors mentioned, a technical analysis reveals that Bitcoin's prolonged rally since early February is poised for a significant pullback. The stochastic indicator clearly shows a lower high while the price sets a higher high, indicating a weakening trend. The observed bearish divergence in the daily timeframe signals a potential reversal in the upward momentum. This corrective movement aligns with market dynamics and the absence of strong indications for a Fed rate cut. Therefore, traders and investors in the BTC market should exercise caution and anticipate increased volatility as the asset undergoes a corrective phase. Conclusion: The recent surge in Bitcoin's value amidst speculation surrounding a potential Federal Reserve rate cut has been remarkable. However, technical analysis suggests a high likelihood of a substantial pullback, as evidenced by the observed bearish divergence pattern and the weakening trend indicated by the stochastic indicator. Given the low probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting, market participants should brace themselves for increased volatility and potential corrections in the Bitcoin market.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by fardycurry
GBPUSD H4 15 March 2024GBPUSD H4 15 March 2024 Lack of market catalysts from the UK region coupled with US Dollar appreciation prompted a bearish momentum for the GBP/USD pair. Strong US inflation data and high PPI figures dimmed expectations for Fed easing policies, contrasting with the UK's economic rebound from recession, which pushed back expectations for a Bank of England rate cut. GBP/USD is trading lower following the prior breakout below the previous support level. Suggesting the pair might extend its losses. Resistance level: 1.2770, 1.2860📉 Support level: 1.2700, 1.2615📈
Short
by top_fx
Currency most likely to rebound against USD next week? Next week's Federal Reserve interest rate decision possibly just got a lot more interesting. Last night we got PPI data. In February, the producer price index, a key gauge of wholesale inflation, surged by 0.6%, surpassing expectations by more than double. The big question now is whether traders will reassess their expectations for the timing of a Fed rate cut. Currently, the market is pricing in less than a 15% chance of a rate cut in May and a 60% likelihood in June. This PPI report marks the final significant economic data released before the Federal Reserve's forthcoming policy meeting scheduled for March 19-20. The USD dollar knocked back all its pairs after the PPI announcement. But which pairs are likely to stage a comeback? The Japanese yen is possibly one of the best prospects in this regard. Traders will be looking for serious talk on Monday about the Bank of Japan ending it decades of extremely low-interest rates (or God-forbid an actual rate hike). The BoJ's Interest Rate Decision is slated for 11 pm on Monday. Next week, we will also see the release of inflation data from Canada and the UK, adding potential volatility to USDCAD and GBPUSD pairs.
by BlackBull_Markets
1
🚨 Bitcoin NOT at all-time high yet! 🚨🚨 Bitcoin NOT at all-time high yet! 🚨 I developed this formula a long time ago and have been observing it. When the founder of ADA (Charles Hoskinson) said that the previous Bitcoin all time high was $69,000 based on the value of the dollar in 2021, I remembered my formula. The essence is quite simple: multiply the sum of the Fed's liabilities, the US budget balance, and the debt-to-GDP ratio by the dollar index and divide by the price of Bitcoin. From an economic point of view, this formula attempts to correlate US monetary and fiscal indicators, as well as the strength of the dollar, with the price of Bitcoin. It is my attempt to measure the "fundamental value" of Bitcoin relative to the indicators of the US economy and the strength of the dollar.
FRED:RRPONTTLDLong
by sholi_software
Aussie edges higher despite business confidence declineThe Australian dollar remains close to the 0.66 line, where it has been for most of the week. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6620, up 0.21%. The business sector is not feeling very confident about the near-term outlook of the Australian economy. The NAB Business Confidence index dipped to zero in February, down from one in January but above the forecast of -1. The NAB report noted that retail confidence remains deeply negative. There was better news from the NAB Business Conditions index, which rose to 10 in February, up from 7 in January. By industry, manufacturing showed improvement but retail and construction weakened. Australia’s economy has been limping along and consumers are still feeling the squeeze of the cost-of-living crisis and high mortgage payments as the Reserve Bank of Australia is yet to lower elevated interest rate levels. The RBA has raised rates only once since June 2023 and hasn’t ruled out rate hikes, although the markets have priced in rate cuts for later this year. The RBA is unlikely to consider lowering rates until inflation falls lower. In January, CPI rose 3.4% y/y, still well above the RBA’s target band of 2-3%. The next meeting is on March 18th and the RBA is widely expected to maintain the cash rate of 4.35%. Thursday will be busy in the US, with the release of retail sales, the producer price index and unemployment claims. Retail sales is often a market-mover and will be closely watched. The markets are expecting a strong rebound in February, with an estimate of 0.8% m/m. This follows a 0.8% decline in January, which was a 10-month low. There is resistance at 0.6702 and 0.6780 0.6590 and 0.6512 are providing support
by OANDA
1