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EUR/USD extends losses, Fed meeting loomsThe euro is in negative territory on Wednesday after posting a losing session a day earlier. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0532, down 0.40%. The Federal Reserve makes its interest rate announcement later today and the markets have fully priced in rate pause, which would keep the benchmark rate at 5.25%-5.50%. Although the decision is practically a given, investors will be looking for signals as to what the Fed plans to do next. Fed Chair Powell has been hawkish about inflation and I wouldn't be surprised if he reiterated the same message at today's meeting. On the employment front, JOLTS Job Openings rose to 9.55 million in September, up from a revised 9.49 million in August and above the market consensus of 9.25 million. This was the highest level in four months, another sign that the labour market remains strong. The US releases nonfarm payrolls on Friday, with the banner gain of 336,000 last month still fresh in investors' minds. The market consensus for September stands at 180,000. Germany's economy has sputtered, and the once proud locomotive of European growth is looking more like the sick man of Europe. The manufacturing sector has been exceptionally weak and has posted three successive readings below the 40 level. A reading below 50 points to contraction, while above 50 signals expansion. Germany will release the Manufacturing PMI on Thursday. The market consensus for October stands at 40.7, which would be a slight improvement from the September gain of 39.6. There is resistance at 1.0595 and 1.0664 1.0495 and 1.0426 are providing support
by OANDA
DXY index ahead of the Federal Reserve Perhaps this week's turnaround in the DXY correction is in its infancy? DXY index ahead of the Federal Reserve certainly looks poised for further gains in line with the recent break of this week's highs and off today's support in the closing price of yesterday. Fundamentals are aligned bullish also. The risk to the Dollar would be on a dovish interpretation of the statement and Powell. Some may argue that a 'buy the fact and sell the rumour' outcome could be the case.
TVC:DXY
by Ross-J-Burland
Should I do a FOMC strangle/ straddle play? Read here.So, what's the best way to play FOMC? Probably a strangle. According to last FOMC on 9/20 your NASDAQ:QQQ calls would have printed around +50% or more. Assuming you sold and held your puts, your puts would have given you an extra 200% to 300%. You can do this on any stock obviously. Don't get greedy. Best decision might be to stay out of course. Choosing a definite direction (i.e. holding calls/ puts only without a hedge) is pure gambling. Good luck. Welcome to follow for trade ideas. FOMC chart 9/20:
NASDAQ:QQQ
by kingdips
WORLD VOLATILE SITUATION Economy VS War🔴Be Aware Of Today... 🔹The Violent Movements Will Begins With These News 🔹(ADP) Nonfarm Employment Change 🔹Ism Manufacturing PMI 🔹Ism Manufacturing Prices 🔹Jolts Job Openings 🔹Most Importantly Fed Interest Rate Decision Also And U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Press Conference 🔴Federal Reserve Meeting Investors Will Turn Their Attention To The Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting Tomorrow, Eager To Hear Policymakers' Views On The State Of The Economy And The Future Outlook For Interest Rates. 🔴 Most Investors Are Betting That The Federal Reserve Has Finished Tightening Monetary Policy After Chairman Jerome Powell Said That Rising Long-term Yields Reduce The Need For Further Increases In Interest Rates. On the Other Hand, The War situation: 🟥Israel-Hamas war live updates: Foreign passport holders seen entering Rafah crossing; Gaza communications cut again 🟥Bolivia cuts diplomatic ties with Israel; Chile and Colombia recall ambassadors 🟥Still, the situation of War is so bad Good Luck Everyone 👋
TVC:DXYEducation
by SroshMayi
Heavy Dollar news day tomorrowWhat an insane session for USDJPY! We know the ExMo is low due to the compression we've seen, but even compared to more normalised figure, what we've seen today has broken all expectations. There are two questions going forward. The most immediate is the Dollar news we have scheduled for Nov 1st. Those being ADP at 12:15pm London (due to daylight savings) followed by the Fed rate decision at 6pm. The second is whether or not the BoJ have any other tools to alleviate the Yen weakness other than simply intervening like we've seen before. Let's tackle the new first. I wouldn't expect ADP to cause much of a stir given the Fed decision always overshadows anything else, and if the Fed holds at 5.50%, then I wouldn't expect anything other than a small bump. Given the move we've seen today I think some form of relax to happen, possibly with a slight downward trajectory for profit taking....possibly we just slide a little lower into the end of the week? As for the BoJ, I'm nervous above 150. I'll take it a day at a time above here and be mindful of any macro factors that change the longer term outlook for either the Dollar or Yen. But it seems like the only mechanism Japan has to stop the devaluation is to inject a whole bunch of money into buying the Yen. Be careful out there and I'll see you tomorrow.
by RuckSack
2
EURUSD: Daily Price Action Suggests A Move UpLooking at this pair it's been trading in a descending dynamic channel since mid-July, it makes up nearly 58% of the DXY index and so is in close negative correlation to this index. We can see the on the daily a pinbar followed by a long-wick doji, which could mean reversal, the opposite can be seen in DXY: We can now see a breakout of the channel, and the pinbar was formed on the restest, and now the long wick doji. We have a lot of news this week affecting the Euro (Mon / Tues), and then the USD (Wed). Overall I think that the price action is determining a weaker dollar which means stronger crosses for the next short period of time, dollar needs a rest and has failed to form a new HH yet despite economic news that would normally entice the bulls. There will be volatility this week so being conservative with initial target, however depending on the news we could well see us back over 1.08 this month.
Long
by Finchcliffe
1
EURUSD Faces Headwinds as Dollar Strengthens?EURUSD struggled to build on yesterday's gains and experienced a decline since the start of Tuesday's Asian session. The surge in the US Dollar index exerted additional pressure on this currency pair, causing it to slip below the critical 1.0600 level. The anticipation of a more stringent stance by the Federal Reserve (Fed), supporting the upward trajectory of US bond yields and fortifying the US dollar, impeded EURUSD from extending its upward momentum seen in yesterday's trading. This aligns with the prevailing sentiment from the European Central Bank (ECB) that suggests no imminent interest rate hikes. This sentiment gained further credence from data indicating a deceleration in Germany's annual consumer inflation, dropping from 4.3% to 3.0% in October. This marks the lowest inflation rate since August 2021, a concerning development amid looming recessionary threats. Market participants remain confident in the Fed's commitment to its hawkish stance, given the resilience of the US economy in the face of persistently high inflation. However, all eyes are now fixed on the outcomes of the FOMC meeting and subsequent statements on interest rate policies. Today's Market Focus: Market participants are eagerly awaiting signals for today's potential market movements, with a particular focus on the release of Eurozone CPI data for short-term trading opportunities. Subsequently, attention will shift to the release of key macroeconomic data from the US, including the Chicago PMI and Consumer Confidence Index from the Conference Board. Trading Opportunities: As market projections suggest that the European Central Bank will maintain interest rates, and the Fed is expected to adhere to its hawkish stance, the weakening of EURUSD below the 1.0600 level remains a prevailing theme. This weakness is exacerbated by the strengthening US dollar and rising bond yields ahead of the FOMC meeting. Technical Analysis: In terms of technical analysis, the Fibonacci retracement at 23.6% (1.0643) acts as an immediate resistance level, followed closely by the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0654. A potential reversal at these levels could instigate a decline in the EUR/USD pair. The technical dynamics of the EUR/USD pair indicate a notable weakening in momentum, notably signaled by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropping below the pivotal 50 level. This RSI movement suggests a bearish momentum, underscoring a broader sentiment of market weakness. Trading Strategy: Observing the current market conditions, it appears there is potential for executing a SELL action at the 1.0585 level should the EURUSD persist in its downward trend. In such a scenario, astute traders may contemplate a strategic approach by establishing a profit target at the 1.03500 level. Additionally, incorporating flexibility to adjust stop-loss levels proves to be a prudent measure, aligning with the individual considerations of each trader. However, it is imperative to underscore that trading decisions must consistently derive from meticulous analysis and a profound understanding of the associated risks. Deliberations regarding a SELL action or any trading maneuver should be approached judiciously. Traders are well-advised to take supplementary steps, such as staying abreast of current economic news or other market factors, before arriving at a definitive decision.
Short
by fardycurry
USD/JPY holds below 150 ahead of BoJ meetingThe Japanese yen is drifting on Monday after pushing the US dollar back below 150 on Friday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 149.71, up 0.05%. The Bank of Japan holds its two-day meeting beginning on Monday and there's plenty of anticipation around the meeting. BoJ meetings were once dreary affairs that barely made the news, but that has changed in the era of high inflation. The central bank has been an outlier with its ultra-loose monetary policy, insisting that inflation has been transient. The BoJ recently tweaked its yield curve control (YCC) program, widening the trading band for 10-year Japanese government bond yields to 1%, which sent the yen sharply higher. There is pressure on the BoJ to again raise the trading band as yields have risen close to 0.90%. The surge in US Treasury yields has widened the US/Japan rate differential, which has weakened the yen. If the BoJ does not take any action at this meeting, the yen could weaken further, raising the risk of Tokyo intervening in the currency markets. One move the BoJ is expected to take is to revise upwards its quarterly inflation forecasts. The latest Tokyo Core CPI reading rose from 2.5% to 2.7% y/y, an indication that underlying inflation remains sticky. If the BoJ does raise the inflation forecasts, it would signal a move toward monetary policy normalization, which could shore up the struggling yen. The Federal Reserve has sounded hawkish about inflation and received support for its stance from Friday's core PCE price index, which rose 0.3% in September, up from 0.1% in August and the highest level in four months. There are some inflation risks heading into next year, but the markets have priced in pauses in the November and December meetings. 149.05 and 148.45 are providing support There is resistance at 149.91 and 150.51
by OANDA
TradePlus-Fx|USDCAD: BoC meeting💬 Description: Today, the Central Bank of Canada will announce its decision on interest rates. The rate is expected to remain at the same level. Against this background, we continue to adhere to our previous trading idea for USDCAD , namely to look up (look at the chart) . But most likely, there will be volatility during or after the meeting of the Central Bank of Canada, then the pair is most likely to roll back down. The expected movement is thus depicted on the chart . As a result, the more global target remains the same, and we expect growth to 1.38271 level. 🔔 FX CALENDAR TODAY 🔔 🇺🇸New Home Sales 🇨🇦BoC Interest Rate Decision 🛢Crude Oil Inventories 🇨🇦BOC Press Conference 🇪🇺ECB President Lagarde Speaks 🇺🇸Fed Chair Powell Speaks ➖➖➖➖➖➖➖ 🚀Thank for your BOOSTS 🚀 👇Share your views and FOLLOW US 👇
Long
by TradePlus-Fx
12
How the Fed affects long Bond YieldsInverse chart of US10Y Yield to show changes in Bond prices. Overlayed with the following: Fed Funds Rate US Treasury Deposits to Federal Reserve Banks Increase/Decrease Rate of change to Fed Balance Sheet Balance Sheet Total in separate pane below The USCBBS Percentage Change shows the money raining down :-D It's clear to see the relationship between the Fed buying Treasuries, i.e. Quantitative Easing (QE) and the increase in US10Y prices. Quantitative Tightening (QT) is the name of the game now. There is A LOT of QT left to do, we're at most 25% into QT since the Fed has only rolled off roughly 1Trillion. They likely have 3+ Trillion to go. Expect US10Y to be under continued pressure as long as QT is in effect. Even when Fed Funds rates are lowered it will have little effect on US10Y while the biggest buyer of Treasuries is on hiatus.
TVC:US10Y
by RobBiddle
Analyzing GOLD: Market Dynamics and Trading strategyThe XAU/USD currency pair, a dynamic interplay between gold and the US dollar, is currently navigating through pronounced market fluctuations. In this comprehensive analysis, we will delve into the intricate interplay of fundamental factors steering the value of XAU/USD. Our focus extends to the looming potential of The Federal Reserve's interest rate adjustments, the consequential shifts in the 10-year US Treasury Yield, and the intricate repercussions woven into the fabric of the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine conflicts. Moreover, we will embark on a journey through the undulating terrain of gold price fluctuations, deciphering their nuanced implications for the volatility inherent in this currency pair. As we scrutinize both the fundamental and technical dimensions, our aim is to provide traders with a nuanced understanding of the multifaceted forces currently at play, guiding them toward informed and strategic trading decisions. Join us as we unravel the layers of complexity inherent in the XAU/USD market, offering insights that transcend the surface, into the heart of this captivating financial landscape. Fundamental Analysis Potential Rise in The Fed's Interest Rates The Federal Reserve, the central bank of the United States, stands at the forefront of XAU/USD trader considerations. Despite maintaining interest rates in the latest meeting, speculation about future rate hikes has introduced uncertainty. A hike in interest rates could diminish gold's allure as a risk-free investment alternative. Gold investors tend to favor assets offering higher yields when interest rates rise. Increasing 10-Year US Treasury Yield The recent upswing in the 10-year US Treasury Yield over the past few months has adversely impacted XAU/USD. Gold, often considered a safe-haven asset, typically experiences decreased demand as bond yields rise. Investors seeking protection tend to shift towards bonds offering higher returns than gold, resulting in a decrease in the value of XAU/USD. Impact of Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine Conflicts Geopolitical uncertainty stemming from the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine conflicts plays a pivotal role in the dynamics of XAU/USD. As a traditional safe-haven asset, gold tends to attract attention during periods of uncertainty. Elevated geopolitical tensions increase the demand for gold, contributing to an upsurge in the value of XAU/USD. Gold Price Fluctuations: Implications for XAU/USD The notable fluctuation in gold prices, reaching $1,750 per ounce on September 21, 2023, and subsequently declining to approximately $1,700 per ounce on October 20, 2023, reflects significant market volatility. The dip in gold prices could be attributed to a combination of factors, including expectations of interest rate hikes and a shift in investor preferences towards higher-yielding assets. Technical Analysis Indicator Analysis XAU/USD exhibits overbought signals on the STOCHRSI(14) and MACD(12,26) indicators. However, the elevated volatility serves as a warning for potential market direction changes. The 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) confirms a bullish trend, instilling confidence in traders. Support and Resistance Levels According to Barchart, current support and resistance levels are as follows: 1st Resistance Point at 1,986.06, Last Price at 1,994.86, 1st Support Level at 1,954.30, 2nd Support Level at 1,934.11, and 3rd Support Level at 1,914.30. These levels serve as crucial guides in planning trading strategies. Trading Strategy The employed trading strategy involves entering positions after the price breaks and retests the breached support and resistance (S&R) levels. The target price is set before the next resistance level or prior to the Fed speech on October 25, 2023, considering potential unforeseen events. Trade Parameters Based on the above analysis, several trade parameters are identified: Entry Point: When the gold price rises and re-test the previous resistance level. Stop Loss: Placed below the nearest support level to safeguard against sharp declines. Target Profit: Before the next resistance level or prior to the Fed speech on October 25, 2023, considering potential unforeseen events Conclusion: This analysis illuminates the intricacies of XAU/USD, emphasizing the intertwined nature of complex fundamental and technical factors. As investors grapple with potential Fed rate hikes, changes in the 10-year US Treasury Yield, and geopolitical conflicts, a comprehensive understanding of risks is essential. The fluctuation in gold prices serves as a vital indicator, highlighting the need for vigilant monitoring of news and Federal Reserve policies. In navigating these volatile market conditions, prudent trading strategies and effective risk management become indispensable for success in trading XAU/USD.
FXOPEN:XAUUSDLong
by fardycurry
GBPUSD: Retracement, maybe reversal?Been watching this pair closely and made some good pips in the past week, however I got spooked last night and closed my sells (albeit 50 pips too early), but my calculation seemed to be broadly right. To me it's looking like a fake out below my support line and back through this resistance which is being retested but I think we're going back up. USD not flying as I think it should (and has previously) with conflict, I think we'll see some retracement in DXY which will benefit this pair, it's been too bullish for too long imho and I believe we'll see profit taking. GBP nailed on I think to raise rates again this month following the hanging of inflation data yesterday. This will benefit XXXUSD crosses in forex, commodities and indices. I'm only expecting this to retrace to the descending trendline for now which will be my TP.
Long
by Finchcliffe
EURUSD: Expecting a drop with continued hawkish FEDThe data coming out of the US continues to support an additional hike this year, with all FED speakers continuing their hawkish stance to return inflation to the 2% target, so getting more likely there'll be a hike in November IMO. Seeing stagflation in the EUROZONE, also real bond yields are positive in the US which makes the USD mo5re attractive, this all makes me bearish on this pair. We saw a drop from highs in the DXY last week which suggests profit taking to me as we entered into the weekend with a US national holiday tomorrow. I expect this pair to drop to channel bottom, will be watching the open price tomorrow and waiting for an entry in LTF's.
Short
by Finchcliffe
GBPUSD: Bearish continuation, setting up for a nice drop?Expecting another hike from the FED in November, supported by hawkish comments across the board to focus on reducing inflation to 2%, this is supported by positive data. Real yields (bond yield - inflation) are positive for the dollar, they're negative for GBP and EUR. We may still see another hike from BoE but the economy is in a mess. Need to watch for US Inflation data and UK GDP data this week. Saw a nice bounce on this pair Friday but I think the fall will continue down to around 1.20, so waiting for a rejection from resistance on the LTF's and will then get in.
Short
by Finchcliffe
NZD/USD sinks after US CPI report, NZ Mfg. Index nextThe New Zealand dollar is sharply lower on Thursday. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5943, down 1.27% on the day. The US dollar has strengthened against the major currencies after today's inflation report and the New Zealand dollar has been hit particularly hard. On Friday, New Zealand releases the manufacturing index, which is expected to rise to 46.9 in September, compared to 46.1 in August. A reading below 50.0 indicates contraction. The September US inflation report was half-good-half bad, as headline CPI was unchanged while Core CPI declined. Headline CPI remained unchanged at 3.7% y/y, higher than the market estimate of 3.6% y/y. The core rate, which is a better gauge of long-term inflation trends, fell from 4.3% to 4.1% y/y, matching the market estimate. This marked the lowest level since September 2021. The stronger-than-expected headline CPI has raised expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates elevated for longer and could raise rates before the end of the year. The battle to bring inflation back down to the Fed's 2% target won't be easy, but a new wrinkle in the equation is the sharp rise in US Treasury yields. That has meant higher borrowing costs, and some Fed members have sounded more dovish, saying that the rise in yields could slow growth and push inflation down without the Fed having to raise rates. There is some dissension among Fed policymakers with regard to policy, as yesterday's FOMC minutes indicated. At the September meeting, the Fed held rates for the first time in the current tightening cycle. A majority said that a rate hike would be needed "at a future meeting", while a minority felt no more hikes were necessary. All agreed that policy should remain restrictive until the Fed was confident that inflation "is moving down sustainably" to its target. The US dollar has posted broad gains following the inflation release, and the Fed rate odds of a hike before the end of the year have jumped to 38%, up from 26% prior to the inflation report, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. NZD/USD is testing support at 0.5956. The next support level is 0.5905 There is resistance at 0.6042 and 0.6093
by fisherkj4
A very long-term (Macro) Approach To US/Global MarketsAfter completing my weekend research/videos, I wanted to create something that provided an anchor for traders/investors. This video is not focused on the short-term market trends - although it does discuss what I expect to see play out over the next 12 to 24 months. This video is more about preparing traders/investors for the global events related to Central Banks, market trends/opportunities, and how I believe the markets will react over the next 5+ years. After watching this video, your job will be to watch for key events to unfold. These events, described in the video, will be key to understanding where opportunities and risks are in market trends. This is NOT the same market we've been used to from 2010 through 2021. This is an entirely different beast of a global market. Credit/debt issues will persist, and conflicts/war may drive major repricing events. Pay attention and follow my research. I'm delivering this long-term research to help you better prepare for market trends and protect your capital from downside risks.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by BradMatheny