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GBPUSD - The pound, vulnerable to financial policies?!The GBPUSD currency pair is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its downward channel. If the downward trend continues due to the release of today's economic data, we can see the demand zones and buy within those zones with the appropriate risk reward. In case of an upward correction, this currency pair can be sold within the specified supply zones. The UK government has quietly abandoned the Conservatives’ plan for managing pension accounts. This plan, introduced by former Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, aimed to address the issue of small, lost pension accounts. However, it faced widespread criticism from the savings industry. Instead, the new government has decided to focus on launching a pension dashboard to help individuals track their missing savings. Additionally, Rachel Reeves, Hunt’s successor, has announced plans for “megafunds” to consolidate the fragmented state of the current pension system. In October, the UK’s public sector net borrowing rose to £17.4 billion, significantly exceeding the £12.9 billion forecast and the previous figure of £16.6 billion. Excluding banking groups, the figure also stood at £17.4 billion, surpassing the earlier estimate of £13.3 billion. This increase in borrowing highlights the government’s growing need for financial resources and could impact future fiscal policies. Natural gas prices in the UK have reached their highest levels compared to European benchmarks since late 2021. This reflects the country’s heightened vulnerability to cold weather due to a lack of large storage sites. While futures contracts have shown little movement, they remain near last year’s peak levels. Additionally, natural gas prices have risen by over 15% so far in November, further emphasizing the fragility of the UK’s gas market. Mann, a member of the Bank of England, has expressed concerns about exchange rate volatility.She described a 1% rate cut as overly aggressive and suggested that decisions on reducing interest rates should be postponed until economic conditions stabilize. She emphasized that significant monetary changes should only occur based on robust data and evidence. Meanwhile, at TD Securities, a team of strategists led by Oscar Munoz and Gennadiy Goldberg expects the Federal Reserve to halt rate cuts in the first half of 2025, as central bank policymakers assess the impact of Trump’s policies. Similarly, interest rate strategists at JPMorgan have adjusted their expectations for the Fed. Broadly speaking, potential conflicts between the Federal Reserve and Trump’s White House seem highly likely, given that Trump’s policies could clash with monetary policies focused on curbing growth and reducing inflation.
Short
by Ali_PSND
USTEC rose after avoiding Lutnick as a Treasury Secretary The Nasdaq index has surged, fueled by solid expectations surrounding Nvidia's Q3 earnings and the alleviation of uncertainty following the appointment of the new Treasury Secretary. Investors are breathing a sigh of relief as Howard Lutnick, a staunch supporter of Trump's tariff policies, has been nominated for Commerce Secretary rather than Treasury Secretary. In contrast, Kevin Warsh, who is running for Treasury Secretary, has openly criticized protectionist measures such as tariffs. This shift has heightened expectations that some economic issues stemming from Trump’s tariff policies will be mitigated. Furthermore, Wall Street consistently raises Nvidia's target stock price. Investors anticipate that Nvidia's Q3 earnings will surpass market consensus, and Wall Street confidently anticipates that the Q4 guidance will also exceed expectations. USTEC briefly tested the support at 20300 and rebounded to 20770. The index sustains upward momentum, holding above the trend line. If USTEC sustains its upward trend above the resistance at 20700, the index could gain upward momentum toward the 21250 high. Conversely, if USTEC fails to hold above the trend line and 20300, the index may fall further to 19950.
NASDAQ:NDX
by inkicho_exness
LONG GOLD NOW, LET ME BREAK IT DOWN !Gold price stays firm for the second consecutive day so far, drawing support from the recent retracement in the US Treasury bond yields across the curve, fuelling the corrective downside in the US Dollar (USD) against its major currency rivals. The US bond yields have embarked upon a correction mode as investors remain wary of the impact of the potential fiscal and trade policies to be introduced by US President-elect Donald Trump on the economic and inflation outlook. Additionally, Gold price capitalizes on the renewed geopolitical escalation between Russia and Ukraine after US President Joe Biden authorized Ukraine to use American Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) to strike inside Russia on Sunday. The decision to allow the use of long-range US weapons inside Russia came after Moscow deployed North Korean ground troops to supplement its own forces. Moreover, expectations of more stimulus measures coming in from China also bode well for the bright metal. China is the world’s top Gold consumer. Securities Journal, Chinese state media, quoted analysts saying further cuts to the Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) coming this year. Note that China is the world’s top Gold consumer, and any support measures by the local authorities to boost economic performance seem positive for the precious metal. However, it remains to be seen if Gold price manages to hold on to its recovery momentum as traders turn cautious, awaiting more cues on the Fed’s interest rate outlook from the central bank talks due Tuesday and later this week.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Andz50
XAUUSD - Buy Gold!?The US dollar gained strength again last week due to the effects of Trump being elected as the next US president. Considering that the Republican Party will control the US Congress in both the House of Representatives and the Senate, it is expected that the implementation of Trump's pre-election promises will easily become law. The new US president wants drastic cuts in corporate taxes and tariffs on goods imported from around the world, especially from China. From the point of view of the financial community, these actions could increase inflation and prevent the Federal Reserve from lowering interest rates in the future. US inflation data in October indicated the persistence of price pressures. Also, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell recently stated that there is no need to rush to cut interest rates. This has led some market participants to believe that interest rate cuts will stop in the near future. Mark Leboitt, publisher of VR Metals/Resource Letter, commented: "Gold's price correction is happening as expected, with a possible drop to the $2,300 level, although the long-term view remains to reach $3,700. considers "Right now, gold is oversold, so we're likely to see a correction," he continued. In such a situation, buying at weak price points for long-term positions and doing short-term transactions with a buying approach can be considered a suitable strategy. Darin Newsom, senior market analyst at Barchart.com, said: "For the coming week, an upward trend is expected. The excitement and frenzy surrounding the recent US election is likely coming to an end, which means the market will face new uncertainties. In such a situation, gold can once again be considered as a safe asset by investors and can be bought as a hedge against the volatility of other market sectors, especially the stock market. This week for the US we have S&P Global manufacturing, services and composite PMI data to watch out for. The beginning of the easing cycle in September and the first reduction in interest rates have revived hopes for the improvement of data such as PMI, and economic activities are expected to improve, especially in the manufacturing and industrial sector, with the continued reduction in borrowing costs. Therefore, although we cannot expect a significant improvement in the short term, we can hope for the improvement of the production sector in the future and gradually. In addition, the speeches of several central bank officials are also of particular importance to traders, as they try to get indications of the speed and possible depth of interest rate cuts. Among the important speeches of the week, we can mention Goolsby's statement on Monday and his appearance again with Hamek on Thursday.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
NAS100 - Nasdaq will reach above 21,000?!The index is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. If the index rises towards the two specified supply zones, you can look for NASDAQ sell positions with the appropriate risk reward. Nasdaq's buying position is in the demand zone after the continuation of the corrective movement, and considering the downward sentiment at the end of the week, it should be saved quickly. China’s Export Restrictions and Their Impact on Global Supply Chains • China Tightens Export Controls: Starting December 1, China will implement new regulations to tighten export restrictions on critical metals and raw materials, including tungsten, graphite, magnesium, and aluminum alloys, essential for the technology sector. • China’s Objectives: These measures are part of a broader strategy to manage sensitive exports and protect national interests. • Global Market Impact: The new restrictions are expected to disrupt global technology supply chains and introduce volatility in related markets. Zelensky’s Perspective on Trump’s Presidency • Zelensky’s Comments: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that the war in Ukraine could end sooner if Donald Trump returns to the White House. • Constructive Interaction with Trump: Zelensky emphasized that Ukraine successfully communicated its vision for peace to Trump, and he observed no opposition from Trump regarding Ukraine’s stance. • Implications of Zelensky’s Remarks: These comments reflect Ukraine’s hope for continued international support to expedite the resolution of the conflict. US Economic Forecasts • Q3 Earnings Reports from Major Companies: This week, companies such as NVIDIA and TARGET will release their third-quarter (Q3) earnings reports. • Federal Reserve Rate Cuts: Rick Rieder, Chief Investment Officer at BlackRock, predicts that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December. • The current Federal Funds rate range is 4.5% to 4.75%, which Rieder considers restrictive. • Following the December cut, the Fed is expected to pause temporarily to reassess future adjustments. Jerome Powell’s Statements and Market Reactions • Powell on a Strong US Economy: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell highlighted the robust performance of the US economy, stating there is no urgency to lower interest rates. • Cautious Approach to Rate Cuts: Powell stressed that decisions should be made carefully due to uncertainties surrounding the neutral rate level. • Market Reaction: These statements reduced market expectations for a rate cut in December.
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by Ali_PSND
XAUUSD - Gold waiting for the Hawkish Federal Reserve!Gold is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 30-minute timeframe. In case of breaking the resistance range or correction with low momentum, we can witness the continuation of the rise and see the limited supply and sell in that range with the appropriate risk reward. Inflation Outlook and Economic Policies in the US and Their Impact on Markets Consumer Price Increase in the US and Gradual Decline in Inflationary Pressures • October Data: In October, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% compared to September. Core inflation (excluding energy and food) also increased by 0.3%, aligning with market expectations. • Expert Analysis: Dr. Christoph Balz and Bernd Weidensteiner from Commerzbank emphasized that while the data shows no significant progress, it indicates a gradual reduction in inflationary pressures. • Core inflation remains far from the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, holding steady at 0.3%, similar to August and September. • This suggests that inflation is likely to stay above the central bank’s target in the long term. • Trump’s Policies and Inflation: Economists predict that emerging economic policies under Trump, including higher tariffs and reduced immigration, may further strain the labor market and contribute to higher inflation in the long run. Jerome Powell’s Remarks and Market Reactions • No Need for Financial Policy Easing: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that given strong economic growth, a robust labor market, and inflation still above the 2% target, there is no immediate need for monetary policy easing. • Market Reaction: These comments raised concerns among investors, signaling a potential slowdown in the pace of interest rate cuts. US Dollar Outlook • Stability and Growth of the Dollar: According to Barclays Investment Bank, the US dollar will maintain its upward trajectory due to economic resilience and shifting market expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate policies. • Factors Supporting Dollar Strength: • Trump’s trade and fiscal policies, including higher tariffs and domestic initiatives, are key drivers of dollar strength. • Barclays projects the dollar will remain strong and continue its upward trend through 2025. • China’s efforts to boost its economy may have a limited impact on weakening the dollar but are unlikely to significantly disrupt its rising trajectory.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
USDCAD - CAD look at the oil market!The USDCAD currency pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. Due to the location of this currency pair at the ceiling of the channel, you can save a part of your purchase position. The correction of this currency pair towards the demand zones will provide us with the next buying positions. Monetary Policy in Canada • Interest Rate Cuts: Goldman Sachs forecasts that the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates by 50 basis points in December (previous forecast: 25 basis points). It is expected that this downward trend will continue, reaching a terminal rate of 2.25% by June 2025 (previous forecast: 2.50%). Oil Developments in the U.S. • Crude Oil Production: U.S. crude oil production has reached 13.23 million barrels per day this year, slightly higher than the previous figure of 13.22 million. For 2024, production is forecasted at 13.53 million barrels per day (a minor decrease from the previous forecast of 13.54 million barrels). • Crude Oil Prices: The average price of Brent oil in 2024 is projected at $80.95 per barrel (slightly higher than the previous forecast of $80.89). For 2025, the average is expected to decline to $76.06 per barrel (previous forecast: $77.59). The average price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil is estimated at $77 per barrel in 2024 and $71.6 in 2025, slightly below earlier projections. Oil Demand: • U.S. oil demand for 2024 and 2025 is estimated at 20.3 million and 20.5 million barrels per day, unchanged from previous forecasts. OPEC and Production Adjustments: • Lower Global Demand Growth Forecasts: OPEC has reduced its forecasts for global oil demand growth in 2024 and 2025 to 1.82 and 1.54 million barrels per day, respectively (previous forecasts: 1.93 and 1.64 million). • Increased OPEC Production: OPEC’s average crude production in October rose to 26. 53 million barrels per day, a 466,000-barrel increase from September, primarily due to higher output from Libya. Geopolitical Issues and Iran’s Oil Policies • Iran’s Response to Sanctions: Iran’s oil minister announced that plans have been developed to maintain stable oil exports to counter potential policies from Donald Trump’s administration. • Negotiations Between Iran and the U.S.: Iranian sources reported that Tehran postponed an attack on Israel after Trump’s election to facilitate potential negotiations. Messages conveyed through Baghdad included recommendations to avoid escalating tensions and create an opportunity for talks. Developments in Lebanon and Israel • Ceasefire negotiations in Lebanon are nearing conclusion. Israeli sources have confirmed alignment between the U.S. and Israel on the ceasefire agreement. However, Lebanon’s situation remains complex, with ongoing discussions between Hezbollah, the parliament speaker, the prime minister, and U.S. officials.
Long
by Ali_PSND
XAGUSD - Silver will continue to rise?!Silver is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its medium-term bullish channel. If the decline continues due to the current economic data, we can see demand zone and buy within that zone with a suitable risk reward. If the upward trend line is broken and the $30 range is maintained, we can see the continuation of the rise up to the level of $32. Over the past year, silver struggled to keep pace with gold, as gold reached multiple record highs while silver remained below $30 an ounce for a prolonged period. However, according to one analyst, this trend may shift in 2025, with the gold-to-silver ratio expected to moderate from its recent highs. Julian Wee, a market strategist at UBS, commented, “Gold remains a favored asset for portfolio risk hedging against various risks, but the shift from a ‘soft landing’ to ‘no landing’ argues for a balance between a defensive stance and exposure to economic growth. Silver, which has historically shown a high correlation with gold, may benefit more from increased industrial demand.” Wee highlighted that amid rising geopolitical tensions, gold has emerged as a preferred hedge. He noted that gold “has risen 35% this year alone, and demand has remained strong amid numerous risk events and declining global interest rates. At least for this month, gold has asserted itself as a hedge against slower economic growth and rising inflation.” He further remarked that silver, like gold, also exhibits an inverse relationship to risk aversion, thus serving a similar defensive role. “Amid resilient U.S. GDP growth, investors may find it beneficial to add to portfolios that maintain a strong defensive stance while gradually enhancing exposure to stronger economic growth,” he suggested. According to Wee, silver is expected to see increased demand due to its widespread use in sectors like technology and electric vehicles, as well as in LED production, solar panels, and medical applications owing to its antibacterial properties. Industrial demand will likely lead to higher demand for physically-backed ETFs. On the supply side, mine production is anticipated to remain limited in 2025. Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chairman, discussed various factors affecting productivity growth, including the rise of new businesses and workforce mobility. He also noted that automation has contributed to productivity improvements. Powell emphasized that the current monetary policy is restrictive, though the exact degree remains uncertain. He stated that the Federal Reserve has begun the process of rate reductions and is moving towards a neutral rate, underscoring the need for a gradual and careful approach. Powell suggested that slowing the pace of rate cuts could be appropriate if data permits. He mentioned that the current monetary policy is well-positioned, providing space for rate reductions if needed, though a careful approach remains necessary. Powell also referred to the recent Producer Price Index (PPI) reading, which showed a slight increase, but he believes the inflation trajectory remains on the right path. He stressed that monetary policy should neither be overly restrictive nor overly lenient.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
USD/JPY hit 15-week high, Japan GDP nextThe Japanese is lower for a fourth straight trading day and has declined 2.1% during that time. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 155.85 up 0.25% on the day. The markets are braced for a sharp slowdown in third-quarter GDP, which will be released early Friday. The market estimate stands at 0.7% y/y, compared to a revised 3.1% in the second quarter. On a quarterly basis, GDP is expected to ease to 0.2%, following a revised 0.7% gain in Q2. The strong GDP numbers in the second quarter reflected wage negotiations in the spring which resulted in sharp wage increases and a recovery in the auto industry. The BoJ meets next on Dec. 19 and key data such as the GDP release and inflation will be important factors ahead of the meeting. As well, wages have been rising which could translate into increased consumer spending and demand-driven inflation. In the US, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose in October to 2.4% y/y, up from a revised 1.9% gain in September. The core rate also rose to 3.1% from a revised 2.9% in September. The increase in PPI comes on the heels of consumer inflation (CPI) which rose from 2.4% y/y to 2.6%. The core rate remained unchanged at 3.3%. The Federal Reserve is unlikely to change its plans due to the rise in inflation, which had decelerated for six straight months. The path of inflation can be bumpy and Fed policymakers won’t be losing sleep over a single monthly increase. If inflation accelerates next month, however, there will be some concern and we could hear calls for an oversized half-point cut in December. USD is testing resistance at 155.95. Above, there is resistance at 1.5643 There is support at 155.15 and 154.67
by OANDA
USDJPY - Will the yen continue to weaken?!The USDJPY currency pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its medium-term bullish channel. In case of correction due to the release of today's economic data, we can see the demand zones and buy within those two zones with the appropriate risk reward. John Thune, the senator from South Dakota, has been elected as the Republican Senate Majority Leader. This election received broad support from Trump-aligned Republicans, though some factions within the GOP, particularly the far-right, were less welcoming of the choice. In this race, Thune faced competition from John Cornyn of Texas and Rick Scott of Florida, although Scott was not seen as a significant threat. Thune ultimately won in a direct, closed-ballot vote against Cornyn, securing the Senate leadership position. Moody’s has announced that financial risks concerning the United States’ fiscal strength have escalated. In a statement, Moody’s highlighted the outlook on U.S. national debt, identifying the “decisive victory of Republicans” as a specific risk factor. Moody’s stated, “In the absence of policy measures to curb the budget deficit, federal fiscal strength will deteriorate, increasingly impacting the U.S. sovereign credit profile.” Given the fiscal policies promised by Trump during his election campaign—and the high likelihood of their passage due to the shift in Congress—U.S. fiscal strength-related risks have increased. While Trump’s victory has been seen as positive for certain risk assets, it has had negative implications for bonds. Meanwhile, a Bank of Japan official indicated that Japan is not currently in need of extensive financial support, allowing the central bank to resume interest rate hikes after a brief pause to assess U.S. economic developments. Another Bank of Japan member warned that raising rates could cause market shocks, disrupting the normalization path of Japan’s monetary policies, as the divergence in policy directions between the U.S. and Japan could heighten foreign exchange market volatility. Additionally, one member emphasized the need to be prepared for potential market fluctuations due to the U.S. presidential election results.
Long
by Ali_PSND
GBPUSD - Is inflation under control in America?!The GBPUSD currency pair is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its downward channel. If the downward trend continues due to the release of today's economic data, we can see the demand zones and buy within those zones with the appropriate risk reward. In case of an upward correction, this currency pair can be sold within the specified supply zones. The Governor of the Bank of England noted that the UK’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) does not accurately indicate whether underlying inflation dynamics have been suppressed. There remains a risk of rising energy prices, and inflation within the services sector is notably resilient and persistent. He anticipates greater volatility ahead, with some inflationary drivers potentially shifting upwards. Additionally, according to new data from the Cleveland Federal Reserve, the inflation trend in the U.S. continues to remain above 2 percent. The Median CPI for the previous month was reported at 4.09 percent, a slight increase from 4.08 percent in the prior month. Since June, this measure has only seen a minor decline, from 4.15 percent to the current level. Median CPI is a monthly inflation indicator that measures price changes at the midpoint of a basket of goods. Although this method may differ from the standard CPI, it focuses on items that fall within the midpoint of the distribution. Charts within this report show that other inflation indicators are relatively stabilized, while the decline in the headline CPI is primarily due to a drop in energy prices, which is considered a temporary factor. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, despite ongoing challenges, debt levels remain manageable. Although delinquency rates have risen, income growth continues to outpace household debt growth. In the third quarter, delinquency transition rates varied, with credit card delinquencies improving, while delinquency rates for auto loans and mortgages saw a decline. At the end of Q3, 3.5 percent of debt was in some stage of delinquency, up from 3.2 percent in Q2. Overall delinquency rates also increased during this period. According to the data, credit card balances in Q3 rose 8.1 percent compared to the same period last year, reaching $1.17 trillion, marking an increase of around $24 billion from Q2. Additionally, mortgage balances increased by $75 billion in this period, reaching $12.59 trillion.
Long
by Ali_PSND
GBP/USD extends losses as US inflation risesThe British pound continues to lose ground and is down for a fourth straight trading day. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2709, down 0.18% on the day. Earlier, the pound dropped below the 1.27 line for the first time since Aug. 8. US inflation has been on a prolonged downswing but that streak has ended. After decelerating for six straight months, headline CPI for October rose to 2.6% y/y, up from 2.4% in September. The US dollar has responded with modest gains against the major currencies. Monthly, headline CPI was unchanged at 0.2%, in line with expectations. The core rate was unchanged in October, at 3.3% annually and 0.3% monthly, which matched expectations. The jump in inflation may not have been a surprise, but market rate-cut odds have jumped sharply. Just a day ago, the markets had priced in a 58% probability of a cut in December, but this has surged to 82% currently, according to CME’s FedWatch. Inflation is largely contained but by no means defeated. The Federal Reserve has waged a tough battle and is no mood to see inflation rebound. The next inflation report will be released just one week ahead of the Dec. 18 rate meeting and if inflation again moves higher, it’s possible that the Fed will respond with an oversized 50-basis point cut. Another headache for the Federal Reserve could be the Trump election win, with the Republicans winning the Senate and likely the House of Representatives. The incoming Trump administration represents an upside risk to inflation, as President-elect Trump has promised sweeping tariffs on imports, notably China and Europe. If Trump makes good on his tariff threat, goods imported into the US will become more expensive which would boost inflation. That could complicate the Fed’s plans to continue trimming rates in 2025. There is resistance at 1.2781 and 1.2843 1.2685 and 1.2683 are the next support levels
by OANDA
EURUSD - markets are waiting for the CPI!The EURUSD currency pair is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its medium-term descending channel. In case of an upward correction to the release of the CPI index today, we can see the supply zone and sell within those zones with the appropriate risk reward. The placement of this currency pair in the specified demand zone will provide us with the opportunity to buy it. According to sources, the United Kingdom and the European Union have decided to intensify their efforts to draft and implement a joint defense treaty in response to Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. elections. Meanwhile, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz emphasized the importance of close relations with the United States and insisted on deepening EU-U.S. cooperation, particularly in trade. He stated, “If the Trump administration decides to impose tariffs on the EU, we have both the authority and the capacity to respond accordingly.” Robert Holzmann, Governor of the Austrian Central Bank and a member of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council, recently spoke with the newspaper Kleine Zeitung about the possibility of a rate cut in the December meeting. He noted that currently, there is no reason to avoid a rate cut, but this does not mean it will definitely happen. Holzmann stressed that the final decision will be made after receiving the latest forecasts and economic data in December, adding, “There is currently nothing opposing a rate cut, but that does not mean it will automatically take place.” In other developments, Japanese investors in September recorded their highest purchase of German government bonds since 2018, while continuing to avoid French bonds due to concerns over France’s financial situation. According to Japan’s balance of payments data, released on Monday, Japanese investors acquired a net 859.6 billion yen ($5.6 billion) of German bonds in September. Japanese funds also sold French government bonds for the fifth consecutive month, marking the longest selling streak since 2022. Today’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, the first key U.S. economic data post-election, has garnered market attention. While inflation data has been of lesser significance in recent months, this report may impact trading sentiment, especially if the downward inflation trend faces setbacks. The monthly core inflation rate is expected to come in at around 0.30 percent, while the overall monthly inflation is expected at approximately 0.21 percent. Additionally, core annual inflation is likely to hold steady at 3.3 percent, while the overall annual rate could rise to about 2.6 percent. In the absence of surprises, today’s report is not expected to trigger significant market reactions; however, any upward surprises may have a larger impact. Currently, there is about a 63 percent probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December. Barclays Bank now forecasts only one 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next year, a shift from its previous forecast of three such cuts in 2025. This adjustment follows recent developments, including Donald Trump’s election as U.S. president and the latest meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs has updated its own projections for the Fed’s monetary policies next year, expecting the U.S. central bank to initiate quarterly rate cuts starting in March 2025.
Long
by Ali_PSND
GOLD: Waiting for the CPI release!After the recent breakdown of the critical $2,600 threshold, Gold (XAU/USD) has regained ground, reclaiming this level despite the persistent strengthening of the US Dollar and rising US Treasury yields. However, technically, XAU/USD shows bearish potential: on the daily chart, the price has dropped further below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which is trending downward. Technical indicators, while slowing their descent, remain deep in negative territory, with no clear signs of reversal or interim support. Fundamentally, Gold is hovering near $2,600, awaiting significant US economic data and pressured by the strong demand for the Dollar, bolstered by political tensions in the US and Europe, including the escalating political crisis in Germany and weakness in Asian and European markets. Investors are closely watching for the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, due Wednesday, which could fuel further speculation on the future of US economic policy.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
EUR/USD slips to 7-month low on weak eurozone confidence dataThe euro can’t seem to find its footing. EUR/USD is down for a third straight trading day and has declined 0.38% on Wednesday, trading at 1.0608 at the time of writing. Earlier today, the euro dropped as low as 1.0606, its lowest level since April 15. The US dollar rose after Donald Trump’s decisive election win, and the dollar is getting a boost as the Republicans are likely to win the House of Representatives. This would give the Republicans control of the House and the Senate and would make it easier for Trump to push through his agenda. The eurozone ZEW economic sentiment index fell in November to 12.5, down sharply from 20.1 in October and well short of the market estimate of 20.5. It was a similar story for the German ZEW release, which fell from 13.1 to 7.4, shy of the consensus of 13. Investors and analysts are pessimistic about the economic outlook for two reasons. First, the Trump victory could signal new tariffs on European products and even trigger a trade war, the last thing the weak eurozone economy can afford. The second concern is the collapse of the German government coalition, with a snap election called for Feb. 23. The European Central Bank meets next month and has signaled another reduction. ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn said on Tuesday that a December cut is likely. The markets have priced in a reduction of 35 basis points in December, suggesting that traders are split on whether the ECB will opt for a cut of 25 or 50 basis points. There are differing opinions among the Governing Council members and we’re likely to see these opposing views aired in the coming weeks. EUR/USD tested support at 1.0614 earlier Below, there is support at 1.0572 There is resistance at 1.0671 and 1.0713
by OANDA
EUR/USD: Trump's Fiscal PoliciesThe EUR/USD exchange rate is on a three-day decline, trading around 1.0640. Expected fiscal policies under the Trump administration could negatively impact the European economy, adding downward pressure on the Euro. Continued movement in this direction could push the pair toward its November low of 1.0628, and eventually, the yearly low in April around 1.0601. Pressure on EUR/USD has intensified as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) recently surpassed the 105 mark, supported by expectations of an expansionary U.S. fiscal policy under President Trump. Simultaneously, German 10-year yields have fallen to monthly lows near the 2.30% zone, reflecting a context of Euro weakness. On the monetary policy front, the Federal Reserve recently cut the Fed Funds rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to a range between 4.75% and 5.00%. Although inflation is approaching the 2% target and the labor market shows signs of slowing, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has taken a cautious stance on December's policy decision, noting that economic uncertainty makes it challenging to provide clear guidance. In Europe, the ECB recently cut the deposit rate to 3.25% but has adopted a cautious approach to future cuts, awaiting upcoming economic data. Meanwhile, the Trump administration may introduce new tariffs on European and Chinese goods and promote expansionary fiscal policies, indirectly supporting inflation and providing the Fed with additional reasons to keep rates steady or pause further cuts. In terms of market positioning, net short positions in the Euro have decreased to 21.6K contracts but remain significant.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
GBP/USD falls ahead of UK employment reportThe British pound is lower on Monday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2870, down 0.33% on the day. The pound is coming of a sixth straight losing week, declining 3.5% during that time. It’s a quiet day on the data calendar, with no US events and only one minor UK release. The UK releases the employment report for the three months to September on Tuesday. Job growth soared by 373 thousand in the prior report, crushing the market estimate of 250 thousand. The labor market is expected to reverse directions, with a market estimate of -50 thousand. As well, the unemployment rate is projected to inch up to 4.1%, up from 4%. Wage growth excluding bonuses is expected to fall to 4.7% in the three months to September, down from 4.9% in the previous report. Wage growth has been easing but is still high and BoE policymakers are concerned about the possibility of a wage-price spiral. The strong growth in wages has contributed to high inflation in the services sector. The BoE holds its final policy meeting in December and Tuesday’s jobs report could impact market expectations. The BoE reduced rates by 25 basis points last week to 4.75% but with inflation falling to 1.7% in September, more rate cuts are likely on the way. A host of Federal Reserve members will deliver remarks on Tuesday and investors will be looking for clues about future rate moves. The Fed lowered rates by 25 basis points last week, a move that was well-telegraphed in advance. What will the Fed do at the December meeting? That is much less clear, as the markets have priced in a pause at 23%, a 25-basis cut at 2.9%, and a 50-basis cut at 22%, according to the CME’s FedWatch. GBP/USD is testing support at 1.2870. Below, there is support at 1.2822 There is resistance at 1.2933 and 1.2981
by OANDA
SUPER STOCKS 2023 notes & issues for POSiTiONiNG there are stocks driven by MARKET .. meaning float is out in the public that normally has a DRUNK price action with gaps and erratic volume there are issues with an assigned Specialist that can TRADE or CROSS huge volume without moving the price or go beyond a range RANGE highlighted ones have been decided by both the MARKET and the MARKET MAKER best of both worlds where artificial price meets the wisdom of PUBLiC Vanguard holds most or is the CUSTODY of most issues Citadel & the gang of 3 manages the FLOAT FUNDS are public PUBLIC is barometer for entry or exit of Sovereign and Trust Fund babies on a 3 5 7 10 year cycle determined by the FED's cost of printing borrowinng and lending note: Market Cap is dated June 22, 2022 ... Bottom are of MARKETS
AMEX:SPY
by senyor
11
Target Reached on GMETV Followers, TV has taken down and removed quite a few of my posts/videos due to my QR tag being embedded in them. I was then subsequently suspended for a few days. So, I wanted to come back and just update you on a few of those posts that were removed. GME was one of them. GME reached the W-pattern target and has entered a large liquidity block. I have decided to sell here a few days ago for some nice profit. My signal has not flashed red yet, but I wanted to capture those nice gainz while I had them. I implemented my new indicator into my trading process in September of this year. Since that time we have not had a single loss recorded on our stock tracker! ZERO! None. All wins. Currently, we are in floating profit on all stock trades and killing it! Congrats to those who are following me in these trades. Our average time in each stock trade is around 17 days. This is exactly where I want to be in order to give you all the time to enter the trades and exit as I post my signals. To tell you the truth, we are doing much better than I imagined and are even beating our rate of profit on the crypto tracker! We have 12 exits for 12 wins, and the current trades will all exit in profit, equalling a 100% win rate over the last two months. I knew I had stumbled across something remarkable when I accidentally found my indicator combo while studying the charts. I am super excited about what the future holds for all of us! Today, I have raised the stops on all of my stock entries. I feel we may be starting to get a bit over-heated. I want to capture those profits while I have them. Best, Stew
NYSE:GME
by stewdamus
Japan’s consumer spending slips, yen extends gainsThe Japanese yen has posted gains on Friday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 152.38, down 0.36% on the day. The yen has taken traders on a roller-coaster ride this week, plunging 2% on Wednesday and rebounding on Thursday with a 1.1% gain. Japan’s household spending fell by 1.1% y/y in September, following a 1.9% drop in August. This was better than the market estimate of -2.1%. Household spending has declined in 10 of the past 12 months, as consumer confidence fell in October and inflation is relatively high. On a monthly basis, household spending decreased 1.3%, after a strong 2% gain in August. This beat the market estimate of 0.7%. The weak yen is also weighing on consumers, who are being squeezed as their purchasing power has fallen. The yen fell to three-month lows this week against the dollar and if the downswing continues, the Bank of Japan will be under pressure to respond with a rate hike. Although consumers are holding tight on the purse strings, wages have been rising and the BoJ is hopeful that will translate into increased consumer spending and demand-driven inflation. Consumer spending makes up more than half of the economy and BoJ is unlikely to make further rate hikes until it sees stronger consumer spending. The markets don’t expect a rate hike until early 2025. The Federal Reserve didn’t surprise anyone with a 25-basis point rate cut on Wednesday. This is the second cut in the easing cycle after an oversized 50-bp chop in September. The vote was unanimous and unlike the Bank of Japan, the Fed has been transparent and telegraphed its plan to cut rates ahead of the meeting. The Fed is expected to continue cutting rates in the coming meeting and will be keeping a close eye on inflation and employment reports. USD/JPY faces resistance at 153.44 and 154.17 152.16 and 151.43 are the next support levels
by OANDA
XAUUSD - Gold after the FOMC?Gold is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe. Gold reached its analysis target of the previous day. In case of upward correction due to today's economic data, we can see supply zone and sell within that zone with appropriate risk reward. The downward correction of gold has led to the visibility of the demand zone and it is possible to look for buying positions. It should be noted that both buying and selling positions will be short-term. The Federal Reserve reduced its interest rate by 0.25%, aligning with market expectations, bringing the total rate down from 5% to 4.75%. In the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement, a line mentioning increased confidence in inflation returning to target was removed, initially prompting markets to react hawkishly. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell quickly downplayed this change, stating that it held no special significance. In his remarks, Powell assessed the U.S. economic outlook as positive and indicated that the Fed would continue with its contractionary monetary policies. He noted that inflationary pressures are easing and that the inflation rate is gradually nearing the 2% target. Powell emphasized the importance of reducing the risk of an economic recession and thus stressed that the Fed’s approach would remain cautious to ensure economic growth and labor market stability, with interest rates managed in a controlled manner. During the press conference following the Fed meeting, a reporter asked Powell if he would resign if asked by Donald Trump. Powell replied simply and firmly: “No.” Meanwhile, according to The Wall Street Journal, sources close to Trump have stated that there is still no organized plan to end the war in Ukraine, nor is there any clear idea on how to convince Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky to agree to negotiate. One idea under discussion involves Ukraine agreeing not to join NATO for the next 20 years. In exchange, the United States would continue providing extensive military aid to Ukraine as part of a strategy to deter Russia from further aggression.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Ali_PSND
USDCHF - Dollar will continue to grow after FOMC?!The USDCHF currency pair is above EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. In case of upward correction, we can see the supply zone and sell within that zone with appropriate risk reward. The bottom of the ascending channel will be the target of this move. The Federal Reserve recently reduced its interest rate by 0.25%, bringing it to 4.75%. The Fed’s statement indicates that the “labor market has cooled,” whereas the previous statement had only mentioned a “slower job market growth.” Additionally, there appears to be a slight decline in confidence regarding inflation reduction. Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chair, emphasized that he will remain in his role until the end of his term. When asked about fiscal policies, Powell stated that such matters are outside the Fed’s authority. He added that if the economy remains strong and inflation does not reach the 2% target, monetary policy adjustments may occur at a slower pace. He also highlighted that the policies of any administration or Congress could have significant economic impacts, but these effects will be evaluated alongside other factors. The recent report on Switzerland’s consumer inflation index indicates that the global landscape has not changed significantly from the pre-COVID era. After the inflation shock of the COVID period, some banking officials speculated that the world was entering a new phase where zero or negative interest rates were unlikely, and the neutral rate would be higher. However, there is no strong evidence to support this claim, especially with the major transformations anticipated from the growth of artificial intelligence. Furthermore, many analysts believe that the risks associated with de-globalization and demographic arguments are not as compelling. In September, the Swiss National Bank revised its inflation forecast for 2025 from 1.1% to 0.6% and also adjusted the interest rate. The inflation forecast for this year was revised down from 1.3% to 1.2%. The next meeting of the Swiss National Bank is scheduled for December 12, and if current conditions persist (including energy prices and exchange rates), a 50-basis-point rate cut could become a strong option. Deutsche Bank also sees an increasing likelihood of a return to negative interest rates, noting factors that could lead to higher risk and a stronger Swiss franc. These challenges are not exclusive to Switzerland; Europe as a whole is facing similar issues. Deutsche Bank has indicated that, currently, inflation in Europe does not pose a significant problem.
Short
by Ali_PSND