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GBPUSD: Retracement, maybe reversal?Been watching this pair closely and made some good pips in the past week, however I got spooked last night and closed my sells (albeit 50 pips too early), but my calculation seemed to be broadly right. To me it's looking like a fake out below my support line and back through this resistance which is being retested but I think we're going back up. USD not flying as I think it should (and has previously) with conflict, I think we'll see some retracement in DXY which will benefit this pair, it's been too bullish for too long imho and I believe we'll see profit taking. GBP nailed on I think to raise rates again this month following the hanging of inflation data yesterday. This will benefit XXXUSD crosses in forex, commodities and indices. I'm only expecting this to retrace to the descending trendline for now which will be my TP.
Long
by Finchcliffe
EURUSD: Expecting a drop with continued hawkish FEDThe data coming out of the US continues to support an additional hike this year, with all FED speakers continuing their hawkish stance to return inflation to the 2% target, so getting more likely there'll be a hike in November IMO. Seeing stagflation in the EUROZONE, also real bond yields are positive in the US which makes the USD mo5re attractive, this all makes me bearish on this pair. We saw a drop from highs in the DXY last week which suggests profit taking to me as we entered into the weekend with a US national holiday tomorrow. I expect this pair to drop to channel bottom, will be watching the open price tomorrow and waiting for an entry in LTF's.
Short
by Finchcliffe
GBPUSD: Bearish continuation, setting up for a nice drop?Expecting another hike from the FED in November, supported by hawkish comments across the board to focus on reducing inflation to 2%, this is supported by positive data. Real yields (bond yield - inflation) are positive for the dollar, they're negative for GBP and EUR. We may still see another hike from BoE but the economy is in a mess. Need to watch for US Inflation data and UK GDP data this week. Saw a nice bounce on this pair Friday but I think the fall will continue down to around 1.20, so waiting for a rejection from resistance on the LTF's and will then get in.
Short
by Finchcliffe
NZD/USD sinks after US CPI report, NZ Mfg. Index nextThe New Zealand dollar is sharply lower on Thursday. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5943, down 1.27% on the day. The US dollar has strengthened against the major currencies after today's inflation report and the New Zealand dollar has been hit particularly hard. On Friday, New Zealand releases the manufacturing index, which is expected to rise to 46.9 in September, compared to 46.1 in August. A reading below 50.0 indicates contraction. The September US inflation report was half-good-half bad, as headline CPI was unchanged while Core CPI declined. Headline CPI remained unchanged at 3.7% y/y, higher than the market estimate of 3.6% y/y. The core rate, which is a better gauge of long-term inflation trends, fell from 4.3% to 4.1% y/y, matching the market estimate. This marked the lowest level since September 2021. The stronger-than-expected headline CPI has raised expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates elevated for longer and could raise rates before the end of the year. The battle to bring inflation back down to the Fed's 2% target won't be easy, but a new wrinkle in the equation is the sharp rise in US Treasury yields. That has meant higher borrowing costs, and some Fed members have sounded more dovish, saying that the rise in yields could slow growth and push inflation down without the Fed having to raise rates. There is some dissension among Fed policymakers with regard to policy, as yesterday's FOMC minutes indicated. At the September meeting, the Fed held rates for the first time in the current tightening cycle. A majority said that a rate hike would be needed "at a future meeting", while a minority felt no more hikes were necessary. All agreed that policy should remain restrictive until the Fed was confident that inflation "is moving down sustainably" to its target. The US dollar has posted broad gains following the inflation release, and the Fed rate odds of a hike before the end of the year have jumped to 38%, up from 26% prior to the inflation report, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. NZD/USD is testing support at 0.5956. The next support level is 0.5905 There is resistance at 0.6042 and 0.6093
by fisherkj4
A very long-term (Macro) Approach To US/Global MarketsAfter completing my weekend research/videos, I wanted to create something that provided an anchor for traders/investors. This video is not focused on the short-term market trends - although it does discuss what I expect to see play out over the next 12 to 24 months. This video is more about preparing traders/investors for the global events related to Central Banks, market trends/opportunities, and how I believe the markets will react over the next 5+ years. After watching this video, your job will be to watch for key events to unfold. These events, described in the video, will be key to understanding where opportunities and risks are in market trends. This is NOT the same market we've been used to from 2010 through 2021. This is an entirely different beast of a global market. Credit/debt issues will persist, and conflicts/war may drive major repricing events. Pay attention and follow my research. I'm delivering this long-term research to help you better prepare for market trends and protect your capital from downside risks.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by BradMatheny
Yield Curve Flattening. Can the Fed afford to pull the trigger??The U.S. Yield Curve (US10Y-US02Y) flattening is a textbook sign of recession. However the S&P500 (blue trend-line) keeps recovering and rising from the 2022 Inflation Crisis. At the same time, the Inflation Rate (black trend-line) may have taken a pause but is on a strong decline, while the Interest Rate (orange trend-line) is turning sideways. The question on everyone's mind is this: "Can the Fed afford to pull the trigger and start lowering rates again?". There is no easy answer to this. Recent history on this chart shows that a rising curve along with lowering interest rates and inflation decline is correlated with Bear Cycles. Notable examples are 2007 - 2008 and 2000 - 2001. At the same time notable exception is 2020. In 1995 both Interest and Inflation rates turned sideways so the stock market extended the aggressive rally into the DotCom bubble. In 1989 - 1990 however, the Curve flattening coincided with a non-stop drop on the Interest rate while in late 1990 Inflation also started to drop. The stock market didn't enter any Bear Cycle but insted kept rising slowly but steadily. Approximately what is taking place now. Do you think we are in a same pattern and stocks will be unfazed if the Fed starts lowering the rates? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
5
GOLD - Positive real rates is negative for GoldThe attractiveness of Gold is tarnished When cash instruments yield a positive rate of return More and more people are getting on board of higher interest rates (Dimon, Santelli) But u can see the Gold price has been inversely correlating with the rate of return for decades. It's bull run in the 2000's along with the commodity bull , coincided with real rates trending to less than zero. Gold Topped a few months prior to that negative reading in 2012! The current triple top that has been in place for he past 3 years , seems to be in danger of breaking down if rates continue up the next few years. The key level to watch is last year's lows in October around $1611 Which I believe is a distinct reality if rates head up to 7%
COMEX:GC1!
by BallaJi
Euro falls sharply on soft Manufacturing PMIsThe euro is sharply lower on Monday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0495, down 0.75%. The euro continues to struggle and has reeled off 10 straight losing weeks, with EUR/USD sliding some 700 basis points during that time. Germany's manufacturing sector continues to struggle. In September, the Manufacturing PMI was revised lower to 39.6 from a preliminary of 39.8, marking a fifteenth straight month of contraction. Demand was weaker across the sector, output declined and manufacturers' expectations fell. Eurozone manufacturing is also stuck in a deep decline. Manufacturing PMI confirmed at 43.4 in September, which also was the fifteenth consecutive month of contraction. A reading below the 50 line marks a decline in activity. This all paints a grim picture and I don't see any relief in the near future for German or eurozone manufacturing. The weak manufacturing numbers are further evidence that the eurozone economy is cooling down and inflation has been easing as well. Friday's eurozone CPI data was encouraging, with a reading of 4.3% y/y in September, compared to 5.2% in August and below market expectations. Lower energy costs helped fuel the downtrend, but core inflation, which excludes food and energy, also declined, from 5.3% y/y to 4.5% y/y, its lowest level since October 2022. In the US, manufacturing is also experiencing deep contraction but showed some improvement. The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.0 in September from 47.6 in August, above the consensus estimate of 47.8. Manufacturing has posted declines for eleven consecutive months. Demand remains weak and the Fed's tightening has further squeezed manufacturers. In the US, a host of Fed members will be making public statements and investors will be listening closely for any hints regarding future rate decisions. The Fed rate odds of a quarter-point increase for the November meeting have increased to 31%, up from 18% on Friday, according to the Fed Watch Tool, which means the markets consider a rate hike to be on the table. EUR/USD tested support at 1.0489 earlier. Below, there is support at 1.0404. There is resistance at 1.0572 and 1.0648
by fisherkj4
Unlocking SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust's PotentialAt the start of 2023, our key assumption was that bullish trends would dominate the market this year despite the challenging global macroeconomic conditions following the post-COVID-19 era. Our prediction proved accurate, as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust has already surged by over 10%, despite the ongoing high hydrocarbon prices. Bears have been trying to regain control and putting downward pressure on SPY in recent weeks. Adding fuel to the fire was the news that the Federal Reserve is ready to raise interest rates again if necessary, Jerome Powell said following the meeting at the end of September. "Given how far we have come, we are in a position to proceed carefully as we assess the incoming data and the evolving outlook and risks. Real interest rates now are well above mainstream estimates of the neutral policy rate, but we are mindful of the inherent uncertainties in precisely gauging the stance of policy. We are prepared to raise rates further if appropriate, and we intend to hold policy at a restrictive level until we are confident that inflation is moving down sustainably toward our objective. In determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments." However, despite the negativity spreading in the media, in our opinion, all movements are taking place within the framework of corrective wave 4, which will be completed this week. Overall, we believe that the Fed will not tighten its monetary policy as American savings continue to decline, which, given the rise in household debt, poses a significant threat to the stability of the US financial system. In conclusion, we would like to note that we are optimistic about the American economy, which is showing its stability while China cannot recover from the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, we expect that the price of SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust will continue its movement within the impulse wave 5 up to $461-462. Analyst’s Disclosure: This article may not take into account all the risks and catalysts for the assets described in it. Any part of this analytical article is provided for informational purposes only, does not constitute an individual investment recommendation, investment idea, advice, offer to buy or sell securities, or other financial instruments. The completeness and accuracy of the information in the analytical article are not guaranteed. If any fundamental criteria or events change in the future, I do not assume any obligation to update this article.
AMEX:SPYLong
by ALLKA_RESEARCH
4
Fed Pause is the New Restricted PolicyCME: Micro Russell 2000 ( CME_MINI:M2K1! ) Global financial market orbits around Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions. By concept, hiking interest rates means monetary tightening while cutting them signals easing. In reality, market perception to the Fed actions evolves over time, sometimes blurring the difference between “good news” and “bad news”. • On May 5, 2022, the Fed surprised the market with a larger-than-expected 50-bps rate hike. The S&P 500 fell 3.6%. This is a normal market reaction to bad news. • On July 27, 2022, the Fed hiked 75 bps and the S&P soared 2.6%! Previous meetings saw the Fed raising the stake from 25 to 50 and then 75 bps. By not getting a bigger 100-bp hike, investors were relieved and cheered as if it were good news. • On February 1st, the Fed raised for the 8th time, but the S&P went up 1%. With lower-than expected inflation, investors concluded that this would be “the last” rate hike. • On September 20th, the Fed paused after raising for 11 consecutive times. The S&P were down 1% as investors were spooked by the hawkish Fed statement. Last Friday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that personal consumption expenditures price index (PIC) excluding food and energy increased 0.1% for August, lower than expectation. On a 12-month basis, the index was up 3.9%. As the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge shows that the fight against higher prices is making progress, “Fed Pause” might be the new baseline case for the US central bank’s interest rate decision. The futures market agrees. CME FedWatch Tool shows that the probability of the Fed keeping rate at 5.25-5.50% is high through Mid-2024. Specifically: (Link: www.cmegroup.com) • Fed pause on November 1st, 2023 FOMC meeting: an 82% probability • Fed pause on December 13th, 2023: at 65% • Fed pause on January 31st, 2024: at 65% • Fed pause on March 20th, 2024: at 60% • Fed pause on May 1st, 2024: at 49% Last year, a Fed Pause meant slowing the rate hikes. It has a very different meaning now: to keep the interest rate higher for longer. Therefore, what was once a signal of easing should now be viewed as restricted monetary policy. Even if the Fed stops raising rates, the cumulative effect of past rate hikes would continue to ripple through the US economy. Government policy has a lagging period, but it has passed. Households and businesses now feel the full force of higher borrowing costs. Below are two-year changes of selected interest rates from the FRED: • 30-Year-Fixed Mortgage Rate: from 3.01% to 6.29% to 7.29% • 72-Month New Car Loan: 4.17% - 5.19% - 7.80% • Credit Card Interest Rate: 14.61% - 15.13% - 20.68% • Baa Corporate Bond Yields: 3.26% - 5.97% - 6.39% Restricted monetary policy would have negative impacts on stocks. Good news: Market prices show that investors have not yet adapted to changes in the Fed trajectory. Russell 2000: The Weakest Link The discounted cash flow (DCF) pricing theory states that stock price is the present value (PV) of expected future cash flows discounted by the weighted average cost of capital (WACC). A higher cost of capital shall cause stock price to fall, other things equal. Small- and medium-sized companies would be hit harder comparing to larger corporations. As rates go up, credit standard will be tightened, and credit spread will expand. Below are current bond rates charged to companies with different credit scores: • 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield: 4.58% • Moody’s Aaa Corporate Bond Yield: 4.95% • Moody’s Baa Corporate Bond Yield: 6.39% • Bank of America BBB Corporate Bond Yield: 6.31% • Bank of America BB High Yield: 7.55% • Bank of America CCC or Lower High Yield: 14.05% Russell 2000 is the benchmark stock market index for the US small companies. CME Micro Russell 2000 futures ( FWB:M2K ) has a drawdown of 200 points in the past two months, from yearly high of 2013 to 1807. The index is still up 2.6% YTD. As the Fed keeps rates high for the next 6-9 months, corporate bond yields could likely go higher. And the credit spreads, including Baa-Bbb, Baa-Bb, and Baa-Ccc, would likely get wider. This could put further downward pressure on the Russell index. Could we quantify the impact? Let’s illustrate this with a $1 million payment, to be received in five years. • Applying the BBB corporate bond yield 6.31% as the WACC, present value of $1 million will be $736,427. • If the WACC goes up by 200 bps, the PV will be reduced to $670,899. • This shows that a 2% increase in WACC could cause an 8.9% loss in market value. The same concept would work on the Russell index. WACC could go up, either due to a rise of general interest rate level, or because of the widening of credit spread. The result would be the decrease in the market value of Russell component companies. For someone with a bearish view of the Russell 2000, he could establish a short position in Micro Russell futures. The contract has a notional value at $5 times the index. At Friday closing price of 1807, each December contract (M2KZ3) is worth $9,035. CME Group requires an initial margin of $620 for each M2K contract, long or short. A short trader would gain $5 for each point the M2K moving down. Hypothetically, if the Russell is 5% lower, the 90-point slide would translate into $452 gain per contract. The risk of short futures is the index going up. If investors continue to perceive Fed Pause as “good news”, Russell could rise after the November and December FOMC meetings. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT:ZQ1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
1
S&P500: Balance sheet extends drop.Will interest rate peak soon?The S&P500 has been declining for more than two months straight reaching the HL trendline from the market bottom. It is useful to look into the Fed's role on this whole long term price action and what better timeframe to use than the 1W. As you can see, the Fed's Balance Sheet (orange) is extending a long term decline that started more than one year ago, while the Interest Rate (teal) continues to rise. You don't need to go back any further than the 2018-2019 period, which was marked by the extensive trade wars between the U.S. and China. The key to recovery was when the Interes Rate peaked and flatlined. That was when the stock market bottomed and growth stability returned to the markets. The recent (almost) two year inflation crisis has the market in an even more advantageous position as it's been one year since it recovered and priced the bottom, despite the fact that the Interest Rate is still rising. Theoretically when the Interest Rate peaks and turns flat, we should see a more stable stock market growth. With the S&P500 on a HL support and the Balance sheet still dropping, do you think the Fed will pull the trigger and soon announce in one of their next meetings an end to rate hikes? ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:SPX
by InvestingScope
3
EUR/USD higher as eurozone inflation slidesThe euro has moved upwards on Friday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0597, up 0.30%. After falling sharply earlier this week, the euro has rebounded and gained close to 1% since Wednesday. The eurozone's inflation level dropped to 4.3% y/y in September, a sharp decline from the August reading of 5.2% y/y and below market expectations of 4.5% y/y. Lower energy costs helped push inflation lower. The September release is the lowest inflation level since October 2021. The core inflation rate, which excludes food and energy, fell from 5.3% y/y to 4.5%, beating expectations and declining to its lowest level in 11 months. The sharp drop in eurozone inflation comes on the heels of a similar decline in Germany, the bloc's largest economy. The decline in core inflation is particularly important and supports the view that the ECB will not have to continue raising rates. Inflation still remains much higher than the ECB's target of 2%, but the downtrend is encouraging and the ECB would prefer to avoid further hikes which could tip the weak eurozone economy into a recession. In the US, the Core PCE Price Index, which is considered the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator, dipped to 0.1% m/m in August, after back-to-back gains of 0.2% m/m. The annual rate eased to 3.9% y/y as expected, down from 4.2% in August. This was the lowest level since September 2021 and supports another pause from the Fed at the next meeting on November 1st, with the markets pricing in just a 17% chance of a quarter-point hike, according to the FedWatch tool. EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.0594. Above, there is resistance at 1.0666 There is support at 1.0544 and 1.0472
by OANDA
2
Mexico’s Manufacturing Boom Lifted Peso to 5-Year HighCME: USD/Mexican Peso ( CME:6M1! ) What’s the strongest currency in 2023? Hint: Not the US dollar. • Although dollar index has rallied nearly 6% in the past two months, it gained just 2.1 points, or +1.9%, year-to-date, to settle at 105.583 as of September 22, 2023. • British Pound futures ( SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:6B ) was up 2.0% YTD, to close at $1.225 per pound sterling. • Euro FX ($6E) gained a meager 0.7% YTD, to $1.069 per euro. • Chinese Yuan ( FWB:CNH ) declined 5.5% YTD, from 6.991 to 7.295 yuan per dollar. • Japanese Yen ($6J) has lost over 11% YTD, from 130 to 146 yen per dollar. While most foreign currencies were under pressure as the US Federal Reserve embarks on the monetary tightening journey, Mexico boasts the world’s strongest currency this year. • Each dollar was exchanged for 19.70 Mexican Peso on January 1st. The exchange rate is now 17.41 as of last Friday. For the Peso, this represents a 12.7% gain. The strength of the Peso is built upon Mexico’s thriving economy. Riding on the waves of resurgent exports and booming manufacturing, Mexico has overtaken China as the biggest US trading partner. According to the latest US Census Bureau data, Mexico made up 15% of US imports in July, while China had a 14.6% share. From Offshoring to Nearshoring For decades, U.S. companies moved manufacturing offshore to lower production cost. Free trade helped grow global economy and lift the living standard of poorer nations. However, the world has experienced a series of trade disruptions lately: the US-China trade conflict, the Covid-19 pandemic and its supply chain disruptions, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the export controls that followed. Their cumulative impact has called into question the vision of a globalized economy. To “de-risk” the potential disruptions in global supply chain, new trends has emerged to replace offshoring, namely, “Reshoring”, “Friend-shoring” and “Nearshoring”. Reshoring is the opposite of offshoring, with US companies bringing production back to the States. According to the “Reshoring Initiative 2022 Data Report”, this phenomenon contributed to the creation of 360K manufacturing jobs in 2022. • Cross-checking this claim with BLS nonfarm payroll data, I found that manufacturing employment is 13.0 million in August, up 106K year-on-year. “Made-in-America” is one of the reasons supporting a solid US job market. • While reshoring raises the cost of production, robotics and industrial automation offset some of the labor costs. Government funding and tax incentives also help. Friend-shoring encourages companies to shift manufacturing away from authoritarian states and toward allies with shared values. Countries such as India, Vietnam, Mexico, Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea, Japan, and Brazil could benefit from friend-shoring as plants, jobs and investments move toward these nations deemed sufficiently trustworthy by the United States. • Diversifying the concentration of global supply chain also helps businesses become more resilient to shocks like war, famine, political change, or the next pandemic. Nearshoring is one step down from reshoring. The key word is “Near”. By placing plants in North and Central America, particularly in Mexico, US companies could source imports from closer to home. • In addition to lowering production cost, nearshoring also has the benefits of cheaper transportation, lower import tariffs, shorter production cycle, and faster response time. • Spanish, a common language, stands as a unique advantage for training local workforce and better communication between the US customers and their nearshoring suppliers. The Next World Factory Mexico stands to benefit from both friend-shoring and nearshoring. Made-in-Mexico-for-America is nothing new. It started in 1994 with the signing of North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). However, it did not give a big boost for Mexico then. Since the year it took effect, Mexico’s economy grew at 2.0-2.5% a year, well below par for developing economies, and nowhere near enough to lift millions of Mexicans out of poverty. We could make the case that things would be very different this time. Tesla’s Monterrey Gigafactory serves as a textbook case of why it would work. Two years ago, when Tesla announced plans to open a factory in Texas, it also proposed to build a Gigafactory in Monterrey, the capital of Nuevo León state. Instead of shipping auto parts all the way from China, it made sense to build them close to the US border. “You could drive to California from Monterrey in 3 hours without seeing a red light”, a big advantage promoted by Nuevo León’s trade office. Tesla’s decision triggered a sea change in its supply chain. AGP Group makes windshields, China’s DSBJ makes electronics parts, Italy’s Brembo SpA makes brake— and they’re all setting up new factories near Monterrey. All told, more than 30 companies have moved to Nuevo León since Tesla’s announcement. Foreign direct investment in Mexico is already up more than 40% in 2023. Ultimately, Mexico’s appeal to global businesses rests on its geography and its free trade agreement with the U.S. Comparing to other alternatives, Mexico is attractive because it’s already integrated into the U.S. More investment will flow in as big companies bring their plants and the entire supply chains there one-by-one. While manufacturing for the US is concentrated in dozens of mega industrial parks close to the US-Mexico border now, the growth potential is huge. I am convinced that Mexico would be the next World Factory. “Made-in-Mexico” will be like “Made-in-China” today. Trading Idea with Mexico Peso Futures On May 16, 1972, the IMM (now part of the CME Group) launched seven currency futures contracts: British pounds, Canadian dollars, Deutsche marks, French francs, Japanese yen, Mexican pesos, and Swiss francs. This marks the birth of financial futures, the first time a futures contract is based on something other than physical commodities. The USD/MXN futures ($6M) is one of the earliest financial futures contracts. It is notional on 500,000 Mexican pesos. At Friday closing price of 0.057430, each December 2023 contract (6MZ3) is valued at $28,715. Initial margin for buying or selling one contract is $1,400. On September 14th, the day before Triple Witching Day, the Peso futures reached a high volume of 224,296 contracts, with open interest standing at 252,004. Aside from the fundamental economic factors, the near-ending of Fed rate hikes means that interest-rate parity is in favor of the Pesos. When the world has been focusing on the 525-bp Fed rate hikes in the past two years, Mexico’s Central Bank raised interest rates by 725 basis points during the same period, from 4.0% all the way to 11.25%. At 0.5675, the USD/Peso exchange rate is at 5-year high. However, this is nowhere near its all-time high of 0.1099 reached in March 2002. I am bullish on the Pesos based on the analysis discussed here and would explore a long position. Record export data and new announcement of foreign direct investment could lift the Pesos up further. The risk in long Peso would be the Fed raising interest rates again in November or December meeting. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME:6M1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
1
US100 is testing strong support level!The market had priced in the no rate changes, however, the FED members' expectation of one additional hike and keeping the rates high in 2024 created a downside pressure for the markets. Although the record of the FED members' predictions for these matters is very poor, the market decided to use this opportunity for the traditional sell party in September. SKILLING:NASDAQ is testing a strong support level again. We have huge volume support here. Breaking here means visiting 13600 levels. Having said that, the initial reaction is positive, and OBV and RSI show some bullish signals. I believe keeping the rates at the same level is a positive sign since it indicates a strong economy. I am expecting a strong rally until the FED realizes that they messed up and needs to cut rates. Then it would be very bloody! Disclaimer – WhaleGambit. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
SKILLING:US100
by WhaleGambit
SPY S&P500 ETF Options ahead of the FED Interest Rate DecisionThe latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report this week has shown inflationary pressures, with a 0.6% month-on-month increase in CPI, in line with expectations. Additionally, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also saw an uptick, rising by 0.3% month-on-month, above expectations at 0.2%. On a year-on-year basis, CPI has surged to 3.7%, surpassing the anticipated 3.6%. Moreover, core CPI, at 4.3% year-on-year, has held steady as per expectations. These numbers underscore the persistent inflationary trend we have been witnessing. Such elevated levels of inflation can be concerning for financial markets, as they often lead to higher interest rates. With the upcoming FOMC meeting, there is speculation of another 0.25 basis points rate hike, which would further tighten monetary policy. In light of this, I`m considering the following Puts: September 29, 2023 expiration date, $440 strike price, and $2.25 premium, to align with the bearish sentiment. This strategy could potentially be prudent given the expected market conditions. However, it is crucial to remain vigilant, as market reactions to FOMC decisions can be unpredictable and swift. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
AMEX:SPYShort
by TopgOptions
1
USD/CAD - Canadian dollar eyes retail salesThe Canadian dollar is showing limited movement on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3474, up 0.09%. Canada wraps up the week with the retail sales report on Friday. July's retail sales were weak, with a gain of 0.1% m/m and a decline of 0.6% y/y. August is expected to show improvement, with consensus estimates of 0.4% m/m and 0.5% y/y. The Bank of Canada held the benchmark rate at 5.0% at the September 6th meeting. The BOC's summary of deliberations from that meeting, released on Wednesday, showed that the BoC considered raising rates due to stubbornly high underlying inflation. In the end, the Governing Council members felt that earlier rate increases were having an effect on economic growth and voted to hold rates. Still, there was a concern that a pause might send the wrong message that the tightening cycle was over and that a cut in rates was coming. The BoC therefore stressed at the meeting that the door remained open to further rate increases and that underlying inflation was not falling fast enough. The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark rate at 5.5% at Wednesday's meeting. The Fed delivered a 'hawkish hold', signalling that it planned to keep rates in restrictive territory "higher for longer". This message sent US stock markets lower and US Treasury yields higher on Wednesday, with the US dollar showing short-lived volatility against most of the majors following the decision. The dot plot from yesterday's meeting indicated that the Fed expects to raise rates once more before the end of the year, the same forecast as in the June dot plot. However, the September dot plot projected trimming rates by 50 basis points in 2024, compared to 100 basis points in the June dot plot. This "higher for longer" approach indicates hawkishness on the part of the Fed, which remains focused on bringing inflation back down to the 2% target. USD/CAD is testing resistance at 1.3468. The next resistance line is 1.3553 1.3408 and 1.3323 are the next support lines
by OANDA