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GBP/USD rebounds on strong UK job numbers, US inflation dropsThe British pound has pushed higher today, courtesy of a strong employment report. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2592, up 0.64%. The UK labour market remains robust, and today's employment numbers were higher than expected.  The economy created 250,000 jobs, up from 182,000 crushing the consensus of 162,000. The unemployment rate dipped to 3.8%, down from 4.0% and below the consensus of 4.0%. As well, average earnings including bonuses jumped to 6.5%, above 6.1%, which was also the consensus. The hot numbers will be a major disappointment for the Bank of England, which was expecting the labour market to show signs of cooling off after 12 straight rate hikes. The jump in wages may pose the biggest concern for the BoE, as high wage growth is a key driver of inflation, which remains very high at 8.7%.  Governor Bailey testifies today before the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee, and the committee members are likely to grill Bailey on the latest job data. US inflation has been heading lower and the trend continued today. Headline CPI for May fell from 4.9% to 4.0%, just beating the consensus of 4.1%. The core rate dipped from 5.5% to 5.3%, as expected. The Fed's tightening policy has succeeded in pushing inflation lower, but the question is whether the Fed feels that inflation is dropping fast enough. Today's inflation data has the markets buying all into a pause at Wednesday's Fed meeting. The probability of a pause has soared to 99% according to CME's FedWatch, compared to 75% prior to the inflation release. There are Fed members who favour more rate hikes and the expected non-move on Wednesday could be a "hawkish skip" in which the Fed signals that it is taking a breather but more rate hikes are coming. There is resistance at 1.2657 and 1.2734 1.2513 and 1.2436 are providing support
by OANDA
JPY RAISING OR DOLLAR HAVENJPY is in a technical correction and is reaching local support at 139.9. I think this FOMC meeting officials will skip the rate hike and project hawkish sentiment for the next meeting. Some other reasons for dollar strength have also subsided. A lot of this trade is dependent on the idea, that US inflation is going to be flat or lower then expected. This will be revealed when CPI reports. Nothing much has changed for the JPY, except for higher inflation than usual. BOJ probably will continue its fiscal policy as is. What do you think? Let me know in the comments below.
Short
by tsmarts
SILVER - Catch This Continuation Trade!Last time we analysed Silver, we identified that we were in a new bullish phase. A bullish wave consists of 5 waves. Waves 1, 3 and 5 are impulse waves and wave 2 and 4 are corrective waves. We are now in wave 2 of the bullish impulse, which is a correction. The correction we're getting is a 535 correction, which is also known as a zigzag. Wave A has 5 waves, wave B has 3 waves and finally, wave C has 5 waves. We anticipate that wave B is almost over and looking to catch wave C. Trade Idea: - Looking for price to push a little higher before reversing - Safe entry on break of red trendline - Risk entry using a lower timeframe risk trendline once we push up a little more - Stops above price once the red trendline breaks - Targets: 22.8, 21.5, 20.6 See our last analysis below. Goodluck and as always, trade safe!
OANDA:XAGUSD
by WicktatorFX
1
DXY - Ready to skyrocket buying!This is DOLLAR INDEX (DXY) MONTHLY ANAYLSIS.. DXY Imminent Skyrocket Price is buying from Panic Zone (0 -382%) INSIDE MONTHLY DEMAND ZONE (PREVIOUSLY SUPPLY ZONE) We expect price BREAK 0% AREA (WEEKLY SUPPLY ZONE) and continue buying to TP1 A AND TP 2 B AREAS. TRIGGER: WAIT PRICE BREAK 0% AREA (104.620) When it's triggered, I suggest to open BUY POSITIONS on USD parallel pairs (USD/JPY, USD/CAD, USD/CHF) and SELL POSITIONS on opposite (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, BTC/USD) BULLISH INTERNAL CYCLE - WEEKLY ANALYSIS. - TP 1 - AREA A: 50 - 61.8 % (109.719 - 110.923) - TP 2 - AREA B: 100 % (114.819) - FINAL DESTINATION: MONTHLY SUPPLY ZONE (RED AREA ABOVE)
TVC:DXYLong
by imktads
QQQ | EU | AJ | BTC | DECRYPTERS Hi welcome to Team Decrypters Here is our Analysis of 4 pairs On how we are expecting the market to Move 1 - BITCOIN 2- NASDAQ 3- AUDJPY 4 - EUR USD THIS IS OVER AL LBIAS ONLY WE TRADE WHEN THERE WILL BE SETUP , ITS ONLY TO BE TAKEN AS TRADING PLANS 1- NASDAQ is on good level to sell 2- AUDJPY Good levels to Sell 3- Bitcoins good levels to Sell is Near 27k ( US is coming Hard on crypto , Time for the End of Bear market Rally ) 4- Aud jpy we wait for this pair to give us Trade ( JPY MONETRY policy will soon be in Favor of currency thats our chance to Enter ) Personal View :- Plz refer to last post description about FED and its Relation to Nasdaq , I Really Think we will go Down but some More Damage is Needed First I Even Think we will see Crash on NASDAQ sooner or later
by DECRYPTERS
XAUUSD | GOLD | DECRYPTERS HI Welcome to Team Decrypters First of keep this in MIND this analysis is on Daily Now for this week :- This Week we have FED meetings + Press conference This Meeting + Press conference will be the Most important Meeting for this whole year in my opinion so There are 2 scenarios 1- Either FED Skip JUNE and Increase Rate in next Month - 2- They incre4ase This month and Keep Higher Rate till first quarter of 2024- Either way they have to Increase Rates as 6 out of 7 of the Fed’s inflation measures are flashing Red Both will push Recession which is Also immanent in my opinion MY PERSONAL OPINION:- we see DXY down till FOMC and than we see RIDE to the Up side In OUR VIP we trade Any thing long / Short what ever Market Gives EITHER WE GO UP AND THAN DOWN LEVELS |OR| WE GO DIRECTLY DOWN FROM THIS RANGE
OANDA:XAUUSD
by DECRYPTERS
FED Rate Hike Speculation; BOJ Maintains Accommodative StanceMay Inflation Data Release to Heighten Expectations of Rate Hike Next Tuesday, the United States is set to unveil its May inflation figures, impacting the Federal Reserve's upcoming monetary policy decision. Market forecasts anticipate a year-on-year increase of 4.2% in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), while the core annual CPI is expected to rise to 5.6%, surpassing the previous 5.5%. These figures, if realized, are likely to intensify speculation of an imminent rate hike prior to the Fed's announcement on Wednesday. Should the outcome exceed expectations, substantial volatility across the foreign exchange market is expected. Concurrently, the Federal Reserve's decision will contribute to market noise, with a pause in rates expected but accompanied by a hawkish message signaling the possibility of further rate hikes in the near future. In the event that the Fed confirms its commitment to monetary tightening, fears could trigger a stock market collapse while bolstering the US dollar. Bank of Japan (BOJ) Maintains Accommodative Stance Amid Economic Uncertainties The Bank of Japan (BOJ) recently signaled that inflation has exceeded initial projections. However, this observation does not automatically trigger an interest rate increase. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized the need to maintain highly accommodative policies until sustainable wage growth accompanies rising prices. Consequently, the BOJ is anticipated to maintain its current target short-term interest rate of -0.1% and a 0% cap on the 10-year bond yield, consistent with its yield curve control (YCC) policy. Furthermore, the BOJ is expected to adopt a slightly pessimistic view on exports and production due to weakened demand from the United States and China. In April 2023, the BOJ highlighted stagnation in exports and production. Nonetheless, as the central bank of the world's third-largest economy, the BOJ remains optimistic that the country will experience a moderate recovery driven by increased post-pandemic consumption, offsetting the impact of weak exports. Inflation is projected to surpass the BOJ's initial expectations. Analysts warn of the risks posed by rising inflation and the potential economic slowdown in Japan due to a severe overseas recession. While the BOJ will not issue new inflation projections next week, it is likely to signal during Governor Ueda's briefing session that inflation is exceeding initial projections. Analysts anticipate that the BOJ will revise its inflation forecast upward during its next quarterly review, considering the persistent price increases by many companies. However, the BOJ's forecast of core consumer inflation for the current fiscal year, at 1.8%, remains below analysts' projection of 2.6%. USDJPY Technical Analysis: Bullish Consolidation Amidst Channel, Watch for MFI Indicator and Resistance Bounce The USDJPY pair is currently experiencing a period of consolidation within a bullish channel, indicating a potential continuation of the upward trend. However, traders should closely monitor the Money Flow Index (MFI) indicator for a reading of 80, as it could signal a possible shift in market sentiment. Until the MFI remains below 80, the price has the potential to sustain its bullish trajectory. Nevertheless, caution is advised as a pullback towards the bearish direction may occur if the price encounters resistance and subsequently bounces off that level. In such a scenario, a bearish phase could ensue, with the price targeting the support line of the bullish channel.
by DNP-FX
2
Global Economy RecapGood day traders. International news recap. This recap has a high probability of influencing the international economic trends for the next six months. First, let us look at the trade balance of Mainland China, which stands at 452.3 billion yuan, compared to the previous value of 618.4 billion yuan (decreased by 26%). Furthermore, the trade balance in terms of the US dollar is 65.8 billion dollars, compared to the previous value of 90.2 billion dollars (decreased by 27%). From this, we can see a weakening in Mainland China's trade volume by a quarter. It's a big decline! Moving on to the United States, the trade balance for April is negative 74.6 billion dollars, compared to the previous value of negative 64.2 billion dollars. Declined by 16%! This indicates a weakening in US trade as well. I sense signs of an economic recession. However, Mainland China is quick to act. Today, they have lowered the deposit interest rates by 10-15 basis points, injecting liquidity into the market to stimulate the economy. Today is the 9th, and next week we should pay attention to the US CPI data (inflation data), as well as Wednesday's interest rate decision. According to CME's assessment of the probability of the Federal Reserve not raising interest rates on the 14th June stands at 78%. Conclusion: If next Tuesday's CPI data meets expectations or is lower than expected, coupled with no interest rate hike at 2PM on Wednesday, then gold, stock markets, and the cryptocurrency market will experience a short-term increase. However, in the medium to long term, we should be mentally prepared. The yield spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury bonds has reached 0.775%. Both Mainland China and the United States are experiencing a decrease in their trade balances, indicating signs of economic weakness. Recession MAY happen. For reference.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by INFINITY8CADEMY
AUDJPY - Massive Breakdown Coming!AUDJPY setting up for a massive move lower. We are anticipating a move similar to wave W, which was over 1000pips. We are currently in a WXY correction. We've almost completed wave X. Looking for a rejection around the 618 fibonacci level. Trade Idea: - Watch for rejection or lower timeframe trendline break for a risk entry - For a safe entry, watch for a break of red trendline - Stops above price after red trendline breaks - Targets: 88 (600pips), 85 (900pips), 82.5 (1150pips) Goodluck and as always, trade safe!
by WicktatorFX
1
Canadian dollar calm ahead of BoC rate announcementThe Canadian dollar is unchanged, trading at 1.3400 in the North American session. The Bank of Canada meets later today, and the money markets are expecting another pause, which would leave the benchmark rate at 4.5%. The BoC's rate-tightening cycle has been on a "conditional pause", which is another way of saying that rate decisions are data-dependent, especially on inflation and employment reports. The Bank has kept rates on hold since March and is expected to follow suit today, but there have been signals that the rate-hike cycle may not be over. First, April inflation report surprised on the upside after it ticked upwards to 4.4%, up from 4.3% annually, and rose from 0.3% to 0.7% month-to-month. The upswing will be of concern to BoC policy makers, as the central bank is intent on wrestling inflation back to the 2% target. The second concern is GDP, which hit 3.1% y/y in the first quarter, beating the BoC's forecast of 2.3% growth. Consumer spending has been stronger than anticipated, as many households have sizeable savings from the pandemic which they are spending now that the economy has reopened. BoC policy makers are concerned about the rise in inflation and GDP, and we could see hints about future rate hikes even if the Bank opts to pause at today's meeting. The Fed meets next week and with a blackout period in place on Fed public engagements, the markets are hunting for clues. Market pricing has been on a roller-coaster as divisions within the Fed over rate policy have made it difficult to determine what the Fed has planned. Currently, the markets are predicting a 78% chance of a pause, which would mark the first hold in rates after 10 straight rate increases. 1.3375 is a weak support line, followed by 1.3250 1.3496 and 1.3585 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
USDCAD Potential Forecast | 7th June 2023 Fundamental Backdrop BOC monetary policy statement today, expected to maintain. Potential bearish pressure coming into USDCAD if BOC hikes. Technical Confluences Near term resistance level at 1.36374. Near term support level 1.33166. Idea We believe that the BOC will maintain interest rates and this will solidify the notion that USDCAD will remain in a range-bound market. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
by OlympusLab
AUDUSD Potential Forecast | 6th June 2023 Fundamental Backdrop RBA hike rates by 0.25bps today, resulting in strong bullish momentum. RBA hiking rates highlights the stubborn level of inflation that AUD faces. Technical Confluences Near term resistance level at 0.67066 where price can potentially react to. 0.67066 will serve as a point of target. Idea Will wait for retracement before entering onto longs. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
Long
by OlympusLab
S&P500 and US stock marketThe medium- and long-term forecast of a serious fall remains in force , but so far there is no confirmation of its beginning, we are focusing on the above levels. Technically, we can still show a small increase, fundamentally the situation is unstable and the fall can begin at any moment. There are serious problems in the banking sector , the prospects of a recession . In previous reviews, the inversion of the yield curve (US government bonds) was mentioned more than once, at the moment the situation is only getting worse. Sooner or later, it will begin to return to a "normal state", which will be the beginning of an sharp phase of the crisis.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Elliottwaveorg
EURUSD Potential Forecast | 5th June 2023 Fundamental Backdrop ISM Services PMI forecast at 52.6 with 51.9 previous. EUR Services PMI along with ECB Lagarde speaking may induce volatility in the market. Hawkish tone will result in bullish momentum in EURUSD, vice versa. Technical Confluences Resistance level at 1.0765 where price has rejected. Support level at 1.0533 which could be a potential target. Price is currently on a downtrend and we will be looking for shorts. Idea Will wait for retracement before entering onto shorts. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
Short
by OlympusLab
XAUUSD Potential Forecast | 5th June 2023 Fundamental Backdrop ISM Services PMI forecast at 52.6 with 51.9 previous. Technical Confluences Resistance level at 1983 Support level at 1946 Price is currently hovering around the support level and we could potentially see rejection off this level Idea Monday asian session, hence will wait for price to stabilise before entering onto any trade. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by OlympusLab
USDCAD -1000pip Move Coming! ✅USDCAD is currently in wave 4, which is a WXY correction. Wave W = 535 ZigZag Correction Wave X = 335 Flat Correction Wave Y = 535 ZigZag correction We are currently in wave Y = Zigzag. We can see that wave A had 5 waves, wave B had 3 waves and now we're in wave C. We've see subwaves 1, 2 and 3. We are waiting for subwave 4 to appear and one final move lower to complete the 5th subwave for wave C. We will then look for an entry to catch the next massive impulse higher which will likely be 1000+ pip. Trade Idea: - watch for subwave 4 to appear and catch the final move lower - once 5th subwave lower appears, look for reversal patterns to indicate strength - Targets: 1.385 (650pips), 1.4 (780pips), 1.42 (1000pips) See linked charts for our previous analysis. Goodluck and as always, trade safe!
by WicktatorFX
1