Get started

Fed

DXY Weekly Forecast | 15th May 2023Fundamental Backdrop Core Retail Sales m/m expected to improve from -0.8% to 0.5% Consumer spending will increase significantly, indicating improved economic activity Unemployment Claims data could be better than expected due to positive CPI and PPI data released last week Friday could be more volatile due to Fed Chair Powell's speech Powell expected to address rising market concern about US debt ceiling Technical Confluences Near term resistance at 102.800 Next resistance at 103.500 Idea With the DXY expected the strengthen in the short term, we could see price head towards the 103.500 level. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
TVC:DXYLong
by OlympusLab
GOLD → Funadametal factors can bring the price downGold closes this week in the red zone with -0.27%. The metal is in a retracement or technical pullback phase, the target of which could be the support of the 1981 range. Since we have a strong uptrend, we prioritize the scenario to buy gold. The price forms a sideways range of 2048 - 1981. A false break-down of the resistance sets the price down to the area of 2000, and the next target is 1981. The moving averages are showing an active bullish trend. Levels, increasing panic in the market: 2010, 2000: 1981. In these areas an increase in volatility and a surge in volumes is possible. This week we are expecting rather strong news, which can ambiguously influence the price: 16.05 Core Retail Sales measures the change in the total value of sales at the U.S. retail level, excluding automobiles - analysts expect the index to strengthen. Retail Sales measures the change in the total value of sales at the retail level. - Analysts expect the index to strengthen 17.05 Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of goods and services from the consumer's perspective-analysts expect the index to strengthen. 18.05 Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of people who applied for unemployment insurance for the first time last week - analysts expect the index to strengthen The Philadelphia Fed's Manufacturing Activity Index measures the relative level of overall business conditions in Philadelphia - analysts expect the index to strengthen 19.05 Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell (Feb. 2018-Feb. 2026) to deliver speech - analysts are beginning to refrain from their forecasts, but continue to expect a rate hike. European Central Bank President's Speech. Basically, if expectations hold true, the dollar could strengthen quite a bit, meanwhile gold will show the opposite trend. It is very likely that the price could test the 1981 and even 1950 area. But! The fundamental analysis showed many times that the published data can be very different from what was expected. Strong support: 2010, 2000, 1981. Strong resistance: 2025, 2032, 2048. I think the gold will continue the correction to 2000 and then to 1981 this week. But as long as the bullish trend persists, I will expect gold to continue to show a bullish direction over the medium and long term Regards R. Linda!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by RLinda
22
KRE Is a reversal underway?KRE the regional bank ETF is down about 50 % YTD, with a couple of bank failures leading the way. The question that arises is whether there is more downside. Faith and trust in the the banking system is at risk. The big banks came in their rescue on First Republic. A run on the little banks can hurt the big banks even Goldman Sacks. Holding treasuries with fixed rates lower than current rate sucks for sure. The fed will clean up this mess and will do it right and has started that process. KRE chart with the fisher transform indicator and the zero-lag MACD tells me that KRE is now " reverting to the mean" & dropped below the Fibonacci bands of the basis EMA. Line crossovers on the indicators are confirmatory. I will seize the situation and add to my long position. Due you agree that this is picking low laying fruit?
AMEX:KRELong
by AwesomeAvani
1
USD/JPY shrugs after Japanese wages, household spending falterUSD/JPY is almost unchanged today, trading at 135.18. Japan's households are again holding tightly to the purse strings, as household spending fell 1.9% y/y in March, following a 1.6% gain in February. The consensus estimate stood at 0.4%. Household spending has been in a slump, with only one gain in the past five readings. There was no relief from wage data, as real wages declined in March for a twelfth straight month, at -2.9%. Nominal pay growth rose 0.8% y/y in March, but this fell well short of the CPI rate of 3.8% used to calculate real wages. In March, large companies negotiated substantial wage hikes, but so far this has not translated into higher wage growth, which could prod new Governor Ueda to normalize policy. Investors are hoping for some insights into Ueda's plans, with the release of the BoJ Summary of  Opinions on Wednesday. The summary covers the BoJ's April meeting, the first to be chaired by Ueda. At the meeting, the BoJ removed guidance on rate levels and said it would conduct a review of its policies. The Federal Reserve has warned that the turmoil in the banking sector has led to tighter credit conditions which could slow down growth in the US economy. These concerns were highlighted in the Fed's bi-annual financial stability report. The Fed's quarterly Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey echoed these worries, with bank officials saying that they would tighten lending requirements and expressing concerns about a recession and deposit withdrawals. The financial stability report tried to put on a positive spin, stating, that "a large majority of banks" were able to handle the strain from higher rates and that US  banks were "well capitalised". Still, the Fed will have to keep in mind the danger of contagion and give thought to cutting rates later in the year in order to minimize the chances of a recession. USD/JPY is putting pressure on resistance at 135.37. Above, the next resistance line is 137.24 There is support at 134.50 and 132.97
by OANDA
🟨 RECESSION? - TIGHTER CREDIT CONDITIONSFED CHAIRMAN POWELL'S STATEMENT 🎙️ Chairman Powell remains flexible regarding future rate hikes, emphasizing that decisions will be taken on a meeting-by-meeting basis. Notably, the removal of the word "anticipates" indicates a decrease in urgency for additional rate increases. Furthermore, the absence of the phrase "sufficiently restrictive" suggests that current policy has reached the desired level. LENDING AND CREDIT CONDITIONS 💳 The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring lending and credit conditions as tighter credit may replace some of the rate hikes that could have been necessary. The current approach can be described as a "hope and pray" policy, where the Fed relies on falling inflation and tighter credit conditions to achieve a sufficiently restrictive stance, while hoping no other issues arise. POTENTIAL RECESSION ON THE HORIZON? 📉 Tighter credit conditions might lead to a recession. However, it is essential to determine how much of this possibility has already been factored into the market.
FRED:DRTSCILMShort
by TintinTrading
EURUSD Potential Forecast | 8th May 2023Fundamental Backdrop Overall, EURUSD continues to be a bullish case on the larger timeframe. There are good reasons to believe in a bull case due to the interest rate differential between EUR and USD. Technical Confluences 1. Price is currently hovering around the previous swing high and bullish momentum has reduced to consolidation in price. Support marked out at 1.0755 where price could potentially retrace to. 2. On the daily timeframe of EURUSD, bullish pressure is waning and a deep retracement on EURUSD could be due soon. Idea Price can continue bullish to tap into the weekly high at 1.10922 NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
Long
by OlympusLab
Fantom Gets momentum As the as the weekend arrives and all of news is out, most important of them non farm payroll that shows the job market is more resilienct than the consensus before and it would temper the end of future hike rates, Bitcoin and Etherium as market leaders in the cryptocurrency market are in uotrend but at this moment Fantom was stopped and I think it's natural because of the nature of this currency that starts moving fast and furious somehow. We will have two days I mean Saturday and Sunday that the stock market is closed, to decide which direction the cryptocurrency market will go, at this moment Etherium has gone up around 3% in 24 hours and we expect this currency to top around $2,000 by a similar calculation we can expect that Fantom gets around 0.46 until the end of Sunday that markets will be opened.
Long
by SaeedDalili
4
USD/CAD extends slide ahead of job reportsThe Canadian dollar continues to rally today and has climbed 120 points since Tuesday. Earlier in the day, USD/CAD touched a low of 1.3490, its lowest level since April 21st. The markets will be treated to key employment numbers on both sides of the border later today. Canada is expected to have added 20,000 new jobs in April, following 34,700 in March. This would be the lowest reading in four months and would be a clear sign that the labour market is weakening as interest rate hikes make their effect felt on the economy. In the US, nonfarm payrolls for April could move the dial on the US dollar ahead of the weekend. The markets are braced for a drop to 179,000, following 236,000 in March. There is a growing feeling that the labour market, which is been surprisingly resilient to relentless rate hikes, is showing cracks. Unemployment claims jumped to 242,000, up from a downwardly revised 229,000 and above the consensus of 240,000. Business optimism remains weak and that could translate into less hiring. If nonfarm payrolls fall to 180,000 or less, I would expect to see the US dollar lose ground, on expectations that the Fed may ease policy. The Fed's rate hike of 25 basis points this week may have been the end of the current rate-hike cycle, in which the Fed has raised rates 10 consecutive times. Fed Chair Powell hinted that the Fed could pause rates as soon as June, although he reminded his listeners that the battle against inflation was far from over and didn't close the door on further hikes. The markets are betting on a pause in June, with a probability of 99%, according to the CME Group. Powell said that given the inflation outlook, rate cuts were not on the table. The markets don't buy it and have priced in a rate cut at around 50% in July and a whopping 88% in September, according to the CME Group. USD/CAD tested support at 1.3492 earlier. Next, there is support at 1.3435 1.3580 and 1.3637 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
SPY S&P 500 ETF Prediction Ahead of FED Rate Hike Decision ! This week's Federal Reserve meeting is highly anticipated, and I`m predicting that the market will go down following the announcement. The primary reason for this prediction is the expectation that the Fed will keep interest rates high for longer, with no rate cuts predicted for this year. Based on fixed income futures, there is a 70% chance that the Fed will hike rates by 0.25-percentage-points, while only a 30% chance that they will hold rates steady. My prediction is that the Fed will indeed raise interest rates, which could lead to a market downturn as higher interest rates tend to slow down economic growth. If the Fed's decision leads to higher interest rates that remain in place for an extended period, it could result in lower spending and investment by consumers and businesses, which could further exacerbate the market downturn. Therefore, many investors are closely monitoring any signals regarding future rate hikes or cuts and preparing for a potential dip in the market following the announcement. According to the technical analysis chart, the SPY appears to be forming a bearish head and shoulders pattern, indicating a potential trend reversal from bullish to bearish. This pattern typically consists of three peaks, with the first and third peaks being of similar size and the middle peak being the highest. Based on this pattern, my estimated price target for the SPY is 390. Based on my analysis, I would buy the following PUTS ahead of Fed's decision: 2023-7-21 expiration date 390usd strike price $5.05 premium I am interested to hear your thoughts on this strategy.
AMEX:SPYShort
by TopgOptions
12
EUR/USD edges lower, ECB expected to raise ratesEUR/USD is trading quietly on Thursday, ahead of the ECB decision later today. All eyes are the ECB, which is expected to raise rates at today's meeting. The burning question remains will the central bank increase rates by 25 or 50 basis points? The eurozone April inflation report, published Tuesday, didn't provide any insights as both the headline and core readings barely moved and were very close to the estimates. Headline CPI came in at 7.0% and the core rate at 5.6%, which is well above the 2% target and much too high for the ECB. The Bank has been aggressive in its rate-tightening cycle and raised rates by 50 bp in March. Another 50-bp increase would help in the fight against inflation but also raise the likelihood of a recession due to the economy slowing down too abruptly. The markets are leaning closer to a 25-bp hike (80% probability) over a 50-bp increase (20% probability). The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 bp on Wednesday, to the surprise of no one. Investors were more interested in what is coming next, and Jerome Powell did hint that this hike would be the final one after 10 straight rate hikes. The rate statement was somewhat dovish, with the Fed removing the phrase "some additional" rate hikes might be needed. It changed the language that said that it would examine various factors in "determining the extent" that further hikes would be needed. Powell sounded more hawkish in the press conference, saying that higher interest rates had not sufficiently slowed down the economy, the labour market or inflation. Just to be crystal clear, Powell said that “inflation pressures continue to run high, and the process of getting inflation back down to 2% has a long way to go". A rate cut, anyone? Powell said in his remarks that the inflation outlook does not support a rate cut. The markets disagree and have priced in an 81% rate cut in September (51% chance of 25-bp cut and 30% of 50-bp cut). Inflation is on its way down, but the pace of the deceleration could well determine if the Fed trims rates before the end of the year. EUR/USD tested resistance at 1.1088 earlier. The next resistance line is 1.1157 1.1025 and 1.0956 are providing support
by OANDA
Interest will go upInterest rates are likely to go up. FED will remain focused on controlling inflation. Job losses we are seeing are not enough to stop FED action, as FED believes these are not numerous enough to impact economy. FED also doesn't believe recent bank issues are a contagion. This idea is an expression that interest rates will go up, therefore best play is to go long "interest rate" in whatever way you can, through interest rate swaps or whatever. Assume interest rate rise
TVC:US10Y
by iequalss
#Euro Retesting Key Resistance Line, Double Top Forming?Past Performance Euro bulls have the upper hand, printing higher highs in the daily chart. Gains of May 3 were conspicuous but failed to break out above 1.1100. Still, the bulls have the upper hand despite the clear double-top forming. #EURUSD Technical Analysis The Fed raised rates but didn't push the Euro above the immediate resistance level. The May 3 bar closed with a long upper wick suggesting sell-off in the tail end. Moreover, trading volumes are lighter, hinting at weakness after a strong performance in the last five months. As prices consolidate and momentum drops, traders should watch out for how prices react at 1.1100 on the upper hand and 1.0965 on the lower end. For bears to take charge, a high volume bar must break below 1.0965, confirming the bearish engulfing bars of April 14 and 25. Conversely, a break above April highs may see the Euro extend gains, powering towards 1.12. What to Expect? Euro bulls are in control following a 5% gain since January. There is a possible double-top forming, and momentum is waning, questioning the strength of the upsides. In the days ahead, a comprehensive, wide-ranging breakout above immediate resistance will rejuvenate demand, further pumping the Euro. Resistance level to watch out for: $1.1100 Support level to watch out for: 1.0965 Disclaimer: Opinions expressed are not investment advice. Do your research.
Long
by Bitcoin_Analyzer
Is 2024 is the golds, golden year?any break above the resistance line can create sharp increase in the price and push the price higher and higher. the history of chart show that every time the price was successfully braked the resistance line we saw 500 percent increase in the price value. so may be this year be a new golden year for Gold. by pushing the banking sector crisis by the fed hike rate, the probability of soar in the price of commodities and Crypto market is rising.
TVC:GOLDLong
by EQDailytrading
FED On Pause? Watch Gold! Some important Fed's Powell signals a potential end to hikes. - The staff predicted a mild recession in general however, my forecast is for modest growth, not a recession. - A decision on a pause was not made today. -The economy is likely to face headwinds from credit conditions. - Policy is having an impact on housing and investment. If FED is really done soon with rates then Gold can easily break higher if we consider that despite higher US yields since end of 2021, Gold is trading close to ATH. I think there is room for wave 5 to $2200/$2300. Near-term support od dips is at $1970 and $1940 I talked about this one in our webinar today her eon Tradingview.
SAXO:XAUUSDLong
by ew-forecast
Is it the right time to sell GOLD?well, on my side im speculating gold to sell after approaching the areas marked in blue either of those, Having the feds decision on feds rate it, if they give it a hike then i will definately look to sell this pair and even hold the position for a while as we will have dollar even stronger than it was and ii think this wil make the DXY buy. just an opinion please comment if any one has an opinion on how you see GOLD. NB: the areas that i just marked are where i believe there will be a even better discount price. I marked these area a few days earlier knowing price wont jus sell right away.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by khalphahssn
2
USD/JPY - Yen surges ahead of Fed rate decisionThe Japanese yen continues to show strong volatility, which started on Friday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 135.14, down 1.04% on the day. The Federal Reserve will announce its rate decision later today, and the markets are confident that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points, which would bring the benchmark rate to 5.25%. The markets have priced in a 25-bp hike at 87%, down slightly from the 93% probability earlier in the week.  Investors are expecting today's increase to be a "one and done" which will wrap up the current rate-tightening cycle. The economy is cooling and inflation is easing, which has raised expectations that the Fed will embark on an extended pause and possibly cut rates before the end of the year. One could make the argument that given this economic landscape, the Fed might be better off by pausing rates at today's meeting, but it appears that Jerome Powell is determined to get the inflation genie back in the bottle as soon as possible. Inflation has eased considerably but is still running at a 5% clip, more than double the 2% target. Another factor for the Fed to consider is the re-emergence of the banking sector crisis. First Republic Bank, whose collapse was the biggest bank failure since the GFC in 2008, has had its assets acquired by JP Morgan. That was followed by a plunge in shares of two US regional banks, and there are concerns that another hike today will put even more pressure on the troubled banking sector. The crisis has dampened risk sentiment and the safe-haven yen has been a big winner with sharp gains today. The tightening in credit conditions since the bank crisis began in March is estimated to be the equivalent of a rate hike of between 25 and 50 basis points. That is unlikely to deter the Fed from the expected hike today, but it could be an important factor in future rate policy. USD/JPY is testing support at 135.30. Next, there is support at 1.3450 There is resistance at 137.57 and 138.37
by OANDA
GOLD: Pre-Fed Interest Rate Technical Analysis Hey there, traders! Let's talk about gold - we know that the current range can be a bit frustrating, but don't worry, there are still plenty of opportunities to be found. In fact, in this video, we'll explore two possible scenarios that we can use to our advantage. Firstly, we might see a small consolidation that triggers more bullish momentum, potentially breaking the previous high and continuing upwards to create a new all-time high. However, it's important to be cautious here, because a small pullback could still cause a reversal in direction. So if you're thinking of buying in, make sure to keep a close eye on your trades. Alternatively, we might see a strong bearish candle followed by a correction, which could be an opportunity to set up a sell trade that could push the price down to a new higher low. In this case, my target for the sell would be the 1940-1950 area. We'll keep you updated as the situation develops, but remember to always trade with care and wait for your own setup. Don't overrisk - there's always another opportunity just around the corner.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by financialflagship