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SP-500 - Banking crisisYou might have wondered about the past ~400 days in the financial market, especially in the US and Europe. Numerous commentaries and opinions have been shared across business-related media regarding interest rates, inflation, oil prices, war, etc. Trust me; you are not alone! Even the most distinguished economic Nobel prize winners have yet to learn why the economic indicators are still stable with so many factors in place. You might have heard of the recent banking failure in the US and Switzerland and that the banking system is so strong that nothing similar to 2008 would happen. But you have yet to hear that this time is expected to be worse!! Milad opinion: In the next 40 days, till the first week of May, we will see multiple failures in the financial system and corporates with weak management, and we will see the tight unemployment rate finally cracking up. But this will be just the beginning of many failures to come. To explain this more clearly, in the past 15 years, we have seen a secular bull market that has pomped the asset prices to a level never seen before, leading to an everything bubble. As a result, we have seen the tech sector and related assets grow to an unsustainable level, and housing prices soar. But this fast growth has come to an end, and in the next 40 days, we will see a downfall of significant indexes to at least 30% to begin with, resulting in a tough landing. The bases are as follows: The banking crisis of 1907 and 2008 indicate a massive downfall of 30% or more, starting shortly after banks' failures. As the Fed Chairman touched on in today's Q&A, the credit market is falling, starting from Credit Swiss, and will be tightened further. This could threaten the housing market, which is already unstable. The 1974, 2002, and 2008 crashes indicate that the final drop should occur here. The downfall for SP500 shows 30% to 41% drop in the next 40 days. A historical unemployment rate study indicates a sudden jump in the following two readings. The bond market inversion (10s-2s) and (10s-3months) indicate that the recession is very close. Analyst Sentiment Measure of earnings among US companies indicates an extreme reading is coming, which means a significant drop in earning expectations. Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) alarms for immediate recession. ISM New orders Leading also indicates an immediate recession. What's next? You can see in recent weeks, the SEC has been questioning different comaniyas, cryptocurrency companies, and people. The regulation of the cryptocurrency market has begun, next is the takeover or liquidation of private banks in favor of the central bank. Then CBDC - FEDnow Starts in June-July. P.S if this prediction comes true, there will be a storm in cryptocurrency, and a drop below 16 is possible, I just keep it in mind. And it will look something like this Write your comments, send them to your friends, I really want to know your thoughts. Thank you MIlad Best regards EXCAVO
TVC:SPXShort
by EXCAVO
14
BITCOIN What Will Happen Next? Analysis! Hello,Traders! BITCOIN did not yet manage To break the key decisive level And I think that before the FED's first rate cut we will See BTC consolidating Between the two levels But after the breakout And 1W candle closing Above the level we will be Able to say that BTC will Go higher and sky is the limit Before that and before the FED acts, I am inclined to Expect consolidation Analysis! Like, comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by TopTradingSignals
11
Gold Threatens $2,000 Area Amid Banking JittersGold prices consolidated near recent highs on Friday, as investors' sentiment deteriorated on the back of renewed banking sector concerns after the stock of the German giant Deutsche Bank plummeted over 10%. At the time of writing, the spot price, XAU/USD, is trading at the $1,995 area an ounce, virtually unchanged on the day. The yellow metal attempted twice this week to break above the $2,000 psychological mark but failed, having posted a one-year high of $2,009. On Friday, European banking stocks suffered heavy losses, led by Deutsche Bank shares which plummeted more than 10% on a spike in credit default swaps. The risk-averse environment favored the dollar across the board, which has limited the XAU/USD upside. Gold prices peaked above $2,000 this week after the Federal Reserve delivered a "dovish hike." Even though the FOMC raised rates by 25 basis points as expected, the central bank dropped the hawkish forward guidance. Additionally, the dot plot suggested most FOMC members foresee just one more 25-bps increase this year. From a technical perspective, the XAU/USD picture remains bullish, according to indicators on the daily and weekly charts. Still, the weekly indicators have lost bullish momentum, given the XAU/USD failure to consolidate above $2,000. A decisive break of this level is needed to pave the way higher, with the next bullish target standing at March 2022 high of $2,070 and the $2,100 area. On the flip side, the next support level is seen at the former Fibonacci resistance at $1,970, followed by the $1,900 zone, where the 20-day SMA converges with another retracement level.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
#BOND crisis to fuel monetary expansion The Fed is damned by inflation if they print, damned by bank runs if they dont print. And with recession on the way, history shows we could plumb to new lows if the Fed only prints enough to backstop banks and pensions. Early 2000s and early 1930s were two such cases where the Fed aggressively lowered rates for well over 18 months but markets continued to trend lower anyway. But 2008 ushered in central bank quantitative easing, so with QE at the Fed's disposal, it is more likely the growth of M2 will accelerate which will keep inflation stubbornly high if not higher. A new factor that wasn't present before is that we have increasing M2 from China and Japan which has been a large driver of the market bounce we've seen in stocks and crypto since the start of the year. The 2-yr and 10-yr rates are heading lower in a hurry. CME Fed futures currently predicts one more 25 bps hike to a terminal rate of 500-525 then three consecutive drops of 25 bps. Higher inflation would become the standard as the Fed would be forced to accept a higher inflation target well above 2% which Ray Dalio had predicted in one of his published pieces.
FRED:WALCL
by BallaJi
$GBPUSD - Fed Rate To Rally Dollar Until 2Q *SMC**SMC = Smart Money Concept - See related Ideas for Tutorials on these concepts. I pulled two smart Money Fibs on the latest waves. The largest of the two has a Liquidity point that could be broken by the end of the quarter as "Smart Money" or the intuitional powers that be, may push it that way. After it breaks the Liquidity Level (Below 1.20120) or near the top of the Order Block, which is also my first safe entry, then I believe The Pound will catch up and turn Bullish. So My SL is 1.18693 and Take profit is 1.25092 making it a 2:1 R:R I'm taking the Smart Money principles and risking the Most that you should at 3% of your account. Typically, you don't want to risk more than 2%. Just an FYI for any new trader that maybe reading this idea. Happy Trading - BXW
Long
by BodiesXWix
GBP/USD Briefly Rises Above 1.2300 After BoE Hike The GBP/USD pair advanced for a second day in a row on Thursday, following the Bank of England's (BoE) decision to raise its main interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%. The BoE didn't rule out further hikes, which helped underpin the pound.However, the deterioration in the market sentiment during the New York session lifted the greenback and weighed on the pair, which retraced part of its intraday gains. At the time of writing, the Cable trades at the 1.2290 zone, up 0.21% from its opening price, having printed a three-week high of 1.2343 after the BoE announcement. The Federal Reserve also delivered a 25 bps rate increase on Wednesday. Powell's comments and the dot plot led investors to anticipate just one more 25 bps hike in 2023, which put the dollar on the defensive. The Bank of England, like the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB), has prioritized the fight against inflation, citing the robustness and resilience of the U.K. banking system. Furthermore, the BoE's economic forecast anticipates a significant drop in inflation in Q2 2023, with a slight increase in economic activity over the same period. On Wednesday, the U.K.'s Office for National Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) had risen to 10.4% on a yearly basis in February, up from 10.1% in January and surpassing market expectations of 9.8%. The core CPI also increased from 5.8% to 6.2% over the same period, exceeding consensus estimates. From a technical standpoint, the GBP/USD retains a bullish bias on the daily chart, with indicators in positive territory and the pair above its main moving averages. On the upside, short-term resistances are seen at the 1.2300 psychological level, followed by March 23 high at 1.2343 and then the 1.2400 zone. On the other hand, support levels could be found at 1.2200, the weekly lows at around 1.2170 and the 1.2100 mark.
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
USD/CHF - Swiss franc climbs higher, SNB meeting eyedThe Swiss franc continues to rally and is trading in North America at 0.9139, down 0.37%. USD/CHF has fallen some 200 points in just one week. SNB goes for oversize hike The Swiss National Bank raised rates by 50 basis points today, bringing the cash rate to 1.50%. It was a toss-up whether the SNB would raise rates by 25 or 50 bp, and in the end, policy makers opted for the larger increase. There were strong reasons to support either move. Swiss inflation jumped to 3.4% in February, its highest level since 1993. Although these levels are very low compared to other major economies, inflation is above the target of 0%-2% and this supported a 50-bp increase. At the same time, the market turmoil triggered by the bank crisis provided the SNB with an out, if it so wished, to opt for a smaller 25-bp hike. SNB head Jordan said after the rate decision that the UBS takeover of Credit Suisse had averted a financial disaster, not just for Switzerland but for the global economy. Jordan warned that it was critical that the merger take place in a smooth manner in order to maintain financial stability. The SNB has been busy lately, providing $53 billion for the takeover and signing on to a coordinated move by six central banks to boost liquidity. The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 bp on Wednesday as expected, but the move was a "dovish hike". The Fed changed the language in the rate statement, stating that tighter policy "may be appropriate", compared to "will be appropriate" in the previous statement. The dot plot chart indicated a forecast of a terminal rate of 5.1% for the end of 2023, unchanged from December. The Fed's battle against inflation, which is showing results, hit a snag due to the recent bank crisis which sent the markets into turmoil. The Fed made reference to the crisis in the rate statement, stating that, "The US banking system is sound and resilient", but added that it was uncertain how the fallout of the crisis would impact the economy and inflation. ECB President Lagarde said this week that the banking debacle could help curb eurozone inflation, and the same argument, I suppose, can be said about inflation in the US. The recent turmoil in the markets means that the Fed's rate path is unclear. With inflation still high, there is a need for additional tightening, but at the same time, tighter policy could worsen the stress on the banking system. The markets are expecting the current tightening cycle to end soon, with a pause and rate cuts to follow later in the year. . USD/CHF is putting pressure on support at 0.9110. The next support level is 0.8935 0.9226 and 0.9304 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
7
SPX (1D) Midterm setup - BEAR Market chance is raisingHello traders, investors and other speculators :) Yesterday before Jerome Powell spoke, markets we underestimating chance of 25bos hike. Now it seems like we can expect another 25bps hike in May. With current conditions there are increasing odds for bear market coming as SP is falling closer to sub 3900 support levels. Also notice rejection from exponential moving averages (EMA 55 and EMA 200 at 1D chart). Those are not good signs. More red flags come from indicators RSI (rejection below resistance) and MACD which is down ticking again. With expectations of S&P EPS falling ... P/E Will be considered overvalued and risky. While you can earn up to 4,5-5% p.a. by just holding government bonds. So why the hell should S&P 500 go up from this point? If 3900 bps support break, than we are heading MUCH LOWER. Brace yourself.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Longevity_Contrarian
🔥 Bitcoin Short-Term Bullish Triangle Before FOMC MeetingBTC has been trading inside a bullish triangle pattern over the last couple of days. With the FOMC meeting around the corner, I'm expecting some volatile price action today and tomorrow. In my view, it's likely that we're going to hit $28,600 today. Whether it's a fake pump before the FOMC meeting (and a dump after), or we get a bullish reaction and move up significantly. The $28,400 area is proving to be a strong resistance at this point. Wait for a clear break out, ideally with high volume.
Long
by FieryTrading
9
I said it will have to correct, didn't I?The fed's report came as "boring" and "predictable", and Bitcoin traders were like, it is OK for now. Let's take a little break (This is HEALTHY like I said before). Lots of people are shorting now btw, but it won't last for long. Triggering news is coming soon (If you know me, you know I use astrology to predict the future). Follow me to know when you should BUY! **I saw lots of youtuber traders saying that a "rising wedge" is a bullish sign ... like what ?? I was scratching my head of why they did not run a 10 seconds search on google, or even asked chatgpt of what is the nature of "rising wedge" based on historical charts, before they "assume" it is bullish. Rising wedge is reversal sign during a bullish trend, and it is mostly attached to a bearish divergence!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by ChemastroOfficial
6
GBP & Gold Reaction to UK Inflation and US Rate HikeTwo significant events have occurred within the past 12 hours, causing both GBPUSD and gold prices to surge. The first event was the unexpected rise in UK inflation, which jumped from 10.1% in January to 10.4% in February 2023, marking the first increase in four months. The primary factor behind this increase was the soaring food and drink prices, which surged at the fastest pace in 45 years. This inflation reading may fuel arguments that the Bank of England needs to boost interest rates again. However, the data might have arrived too late to impact the Bank's interest rate decision, which is due tomorrow. Nevertheless, the GBP rallied against the USD, before subsiding, and then rallying again on the news of the second event. The second event occurred an hour ago, with the US Federal Reserve announcing its latest interest rate decision, which included a 25-basis-point hike. While most of the market had anticipated this move, some participants believed that the Fed might pause its rate hikes. In the post-decision address, Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that recent economic indicators, particularly job data, have come in stronger than expected. However, Powell noted that the recent turmoil in the banking sector should result in tighter lending conditions, which will help combat the robust economic data. Nonetheless, Powell added that it was too early to determine how monetary policy should respond to the recent banking crisis, but it will play a role in future rate hike decisions. Gold is following a similar path to the GBP/USD and appears to be encountering some resistance at $1,970.
by BlackBull_Markets
Interest Rate Hikes & Bank Collapse: How to Protect Your TradingThe Federal Reserve has been increasing interest rates for the past 9 months, causing a ripple effect throughout the financial world. In recent week, we have seen 3 major banks collapse as a direct result of the interest rate hikes, which has caused trouble in the financial world as well. As a trader, it's essential to understand how these events can affect your trading decisions and how to navigate the current situation. The Impact of Interest Rate Hikes on the Financial World Interest rate hikes have a direct impact on the financial world, including the stock market, bond market, and the housing market. As the Federal Reserve increases interest rates, borrowing becomes more expensive, which can lead to a slowdown in economic growth. It can also lead to increased volatility in the stock market, as investors react to the news and make changes to their portfolios. The Collapse of Banks and the IT Sector The recent collapse of two banks has caused trouble in the stock market specially IT sector, as many IT companies & startups have provided services to these banks. The collapse of these banks has caused a ripple effect throughout the financial world, leading to concerns about the stability of the financial system. Navigating Trading During the Current Situation As a trader, it's important to stay informed about the current situation and how it can affect your trading decisions. Here are some tips for navigating trading during the current situation: Stay informed: Keep up-to-date with the latest news and developments related to the interest rate hikes and the banking collapse. This can help you make informed decisions about your trades. Diversify your portfolio: Diversification is always important in trading, but it's especially crucial during times of economic uncertainty. Consider spreading your investments across different sectors to minimize your risk. Monitor volatility: As interest rates continue to rise, volatility in the markets may increase. Keep an eye on market volatility and adjust your trading strategies accordingly. Be patient: It's important to be patient and avoid making impulsive trading decisions based on emotions. Take the time to analyze the market and make informed decisions based on your trading plan. Use stop-loss orders: Consider using stop-loss orders to minimize your risk and protect your investments. Stop-loss orders automatically trigger a sale when a stock falls to a certain price, which can prevent you from incurring significant losses. Stay disciplined: It's important to stay disciplined and stick to your trading plan, even during times of economic uncertainty. Avoid making impulsive decisions based on emotions, and focus on your long-term trading goals. Take advantage of opportunities: While economic turbulence can be challenging for traders, it can also create opportunities for profit. Keep an eye out for undervalued stocks or assets that may be poised for growth in the future, and consider taking advantage of these opportunities if they align with your trading goals and strategy. Avoid overtrading: During times of economic uncertainty, it's important to avoid overtrading and taking on too much risk. Stick to your trading plan and avoid making impulsive decisions based on emotions or short-term market movements. In conclusion, the current situation of interest rate hikes and banking collapse can have a significant impact on the financial world and your trading decisions. By staying informed, diversifying your portfolio, monitoring volatility, and being patient, you can navigate this challenging environment and make informed trading decisions. Remember to always prioritize risk management and stay focused on your long-term trading goals.
SP:SPXEducation
by AfnanTAjuddin
BTC - Why 30,000 Is A Strong Rejection ⁉️Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. As per my last analysis, we know that BTC broke above the big inverse head and shoulders neckline. 📈 Thus, the momentum has been shifted from bearish to bullish. BTC is currently bullish trading inside the red rising broadening wedge pattern. 📌 Here is why the 30,000 is a strong rejection: 1- Round number => 30,000 2- Classic Support Zone Turned Resistance from Weekly timeframe 3- Supply zone marked on the chart 4- Intersecting with the upper red trendline acting as a non-horizontal resistance 📉 Hence, as BTC approaches the 30k - 32k zone, we will be expecting the bears to take over for a medium-term correction. 📌 For the bulls to take over from a MACRO perspective , we need a weekly candle close above 32,000 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
by TheSignalyst
28
EUR/USD Moves Towards 1.0800 Ahead of Fed's DecisionThe EUR/USD pair has advanced modestly on Wednesday as investors remain sidelined ahead of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading at the 1.0790 zone, 0.23% above its opening price. All eyes are on the Federal Reserve decision to be released at 18:00 GMT, which will be accompanied by the statement and the dot plot with updated members’ projections. Half an hour later, Chairman Jerome Powell will speak at a press conference. Hours ahead of the verdict, the CME FedWatch Tool points to a 25 bps rate hike as the most likely outcome (89.3%) versus no change (10.7%). While the banking turmoil seems contained, at least at the time being, the Fed is far away from taming inflation. A 50 bps rate increase seems out of the table, so if the Fed surprises with such an increase, the dollar could rally across the board. Investors will also scrutinize the statement, the dot plot and Powell’s wording. While the technical picture becomes less relevant ahead of the highly anticipated decision, the EUR/USD maintains a bullish short-term bias according to indicators on the daily chart while the price continues to rise above its main moving averages. The EUR/USD pair needs to reclaim the 1.0800 zone to pave the way higher, with 1.0900 –psychological level and 50% retracement of the 1.2266-0.9535 decline – as the next target and critical barrier on the upside. On the flip side, immediate supports are seen at 1.0700 and the 20-day SMA at 1.0640. The broader perspective will remain positive if the pair manages to hold above 1.0500 after the Fed event.
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst