💵THE WORLD IN DEBT💵
☑️The fact that the whole world is in massive Debt that can not be repaid is a buzzphrase that was around for like 20 years already.
20 years passed and nothing bad has happened, so what to worry about? In fact an entire political and economic movement called MMT or a modern monetary theory emerged claiming that government debt does not matter and that we can, you guessed it, print as much as we need(kinda)
☑️But the size of the debt itself was never really and issue so long as the government or a big company could service the debts.
That is if their cashflow was positive enough to cover the interest payments on the debt. Now however, as the FED is raising rates, this is an issue.
☑️And its not the USA who’s pile of debt we need to be worried about(they are borrowing in the currency they can print themselves, remember?) but rather the rest of the world and the companies. The majority of developing countries don’t have the internal capital required for development, so they need to borrow on the international financial markets in Dollars. And these counties are now facing a perfect storm of a higher cost of new borrowings in Dollars, lower revenues from foreign trade due to recession(and yes we are in a recession, Wake up) and the massive energy and food costs due to the war in Ukraine and the problems caused by the supply chain crisis.
☑️Most big public companies aren’t doing great either. The share of listed companies with the debt servicing costs higher than the profits is now more than 25% and if we exclude the accounting and financial engineering shenanigans, it is save to say that this share is close to 30%.
☑️So the third of the economy is outright insolvent. Multiple countries will either default soon or will at least be plunge into civil and economic unrest and go the way of Sri-Lanka, Pakistan and others… And Jerome Powell said that he aint stopping and that the Fed funds rate should go up by at least 2 percentage points more. So instead of the collapse of the USA, we are likely to see a chain reaction debt crisis In the rest of the world unless the FED changes its mind…
I Hope you guys learned something new today✅
Wish you all Best Of Luck👍
😇And may the odds be always in your favor😇
Dear followers, let me know, what topic interests you for new educational posts?
explanation
Fed
DXY Weekly Forecast | 22nd May 2023Fundamental Backdrop
The Flash Manufacturing PMI is expected to decrease from 50.2 to 50.0 which shows contraction in economic health.
The Flash Services PMI is also expected to drop from 53.6 to 52.6.
The FOMC Meeting Minutes on Thursday. The FED will talk about future interest rates which was previously indicated to be on pause.
Technical Confluences
Near-term resistance at 103.500
Next resistance at 105.000
Minor support at 102.765
Major support at 102.200
Idea
With the Flash Manufacturing PMI and Flash Services PMI expected to drop, it could cause the DXY to drop further towards the 102.700 minor support.
If the FED chooses to pause or indicate pausing of interest rates, it can cause the DXY to drop even further towards the 102.200 major support level.
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER
The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas.
We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades.
Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks.
OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
USD/CAD - Will retail sales weigh on the Canadian dollar?The Canadian dollar is trading quietly ahead of a key retail sales report later today. USD/CAD is trading in Europe at 1.3484, down 0.13%.
The Canadian consumer is holding tightly to their wallet, which is not all that surprising in the current economic climate. Inflation ticked higher in April, rising from 4.3% to 4.4%. Add in high interest rates and it's not hard to sympathize with consumers who are struggling with the cost of living.
The April retail sales report may show that things are getting worse - headline retail sales is expected to slow to -1.4%, down from -0.2% in March, and the core rate is expected to fall from -0.7% to -0.8%. Not exactly a winning recipe for economic growth. A decline in today's report could unnerve investors and send the Canadian dollar lower.
The Bank of Canada will not be pleased with the slight increase in inflation, although the core rate, which is a more reliable gauge of inflation trends, did move lower. The BoC meets next on June 7th and there is only one more tier-1 release before the meeting, that being GDP. If retail sales contracts for a second straight month as expected, there will be more support for the BoC to continue to hold rates at 4.50%, where they have been pegged since March.
It's a bare economic calendar in the US today, with no data releases. The markets will have a chance to focus on Fedspeak, with Jerome Powell and two FOMC members delivering public remarks. Just a few weeks ago, the markets had priced in a pause at the June meeting at over 90%. That has changed to a 66% chance of a pause and a 33% chance of a hike of 25 basis points, according to CME's FedWatch. That downward revision is due to a consistently hawkish message from the Fed and a solid US economy.
USD/CAD is testing support at 1.3479. Below, there is support at 1.3394
1.3644 and 1.3729 are the next resistance lines
DXY Forecast | Pre Fed Chair Powell Speaks | 19th May 2023Fundamental Backdrop
Unemployment Claims decreased from 264K to 242k, far better than the forecast of 253K. This signals an overall healthier economy.
Fed Chair Powell will be speaking later on today on the concerns around the status of the US debt ceiling.
Technical Confluences
Near-term resistance at 103.500
Next resistance at 105.000
Minor support at 102.765
Idea
If Fed Chair Powell's speech is hawkish, we could see DXY break the near-term resistance at 103.500, before heading towards the next resistance at 105.000.
Alternatively, if the speech is dovish, we could see price head back down towards the minor support at 102.765
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER
The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas.
We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades.
Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks.
OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
USD/JPY - Yen sinks to 6.5 month low, is 140 next?The yen woes continue, as the currency has plunged a massive 400 points over the past week. In Thursday's North American session, the yen is trading at 138.52, up 0.60% on the day. USD/JPY hasn't been at such high levels since November 2022.
All eyes will be on Japan's Core CPI release early on Friday. This is a key inflation indicator and could move the dial of the yen. The markets are expecting Core CPI to rise to 3.4% in April, after two straight readings of 3.1%.
Inflation remains a key issue for the Bank of Japan. The new Governor, Kazuo Ueda, has continued the Bank's ultra-accommodative policy but has also hinted at taking steps towards normalization, such as adjusting the yield curve control (YCC) policy if inflation remains sustainable above 2%. This week's GDP release showed growth in the first quarter was higher than expected, and that could raise expectations that the Bank will shift policy, perhaps in baby steps, in the near future. As for interest rate policy, we're unlikely to see any tightening before 2024.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will speak on a panel later today, and the markets will be all ears. Powell has remained hawkish, saying that high inflation could result in further rate hikes. Powell has dismissed outright any rate cuts, but the markets still believe that the Fed will trim rates before the end of the year. JP Morgan weighed in earlier this week, saying they agreed with the markets that the Fed would cut rates, as the economy was likely to tip into a recession.
USD/JPY is testing resistance at 138.42. Above, the next resistance line is 139.58
There is support at 137.08 and 136.42
$NQ1! - Busy week ahead! CME_MINI:NQ1! - Busy week ahead!
We've got a busy calendar ahead of us and remember it's first day of the month - May a Lot of US Data!
1. ISM
2. JOLTS
3. ADP
4. FOMC
5. NFP
Now that's a busy week and I know for some, they will be stepping back and not trading during a hectic week ahead, but I do feel there will be plenty of opportunities. Now, banking sector is at the key spot light ahead of this week mentions of First Republic Bank will be acquired by JPMorgan after rescue efforts fail. It's not first time this year, we've heard a bank go under, and unfortunately that's part of the cycle as rates head higher, a lot of sectors get hurt, look at real estate and this is what I mentioned months prior - I well recommend researching more in depth. Keep in mind FED want a 2% target for inflation...Expectation is for the FOMC to lift rates by 25bps at its May meeting, now the real question is will they pause after this hike or carry on, whilst we got credit tightening...
Now technically looking at NQ
Highs: 13391
Lows: 12787
At the moment we've got Kangaroo action until a break to either side - If we are to break the highs, I expect next area of interest to be 13660 areas. However, we are to break the lows, I expect 12481 areas.
NQ has held relatively well within the conditions we are in, interesting times ahead.
Have a great week ahead,
Trade Journal
USD/JPY - Japan's GDP improves but yen slipsThe Japanese yen is on a four-day losing streak and is in negative territory on Wednesday. In the North American session, the yen is trading at 137.39, up 0.74% on the day.
Japan's GDP in the first quarter was higher than expected. The economy grew by 1.6% y/y, after a 0.1% decline in Q4 2022 and easily beat the estimate of 0.7%. On a quarterly basis, GDP expanded by 0.4%, up from 0.0% in Q4 and above the estimate of 0.1%.
One key driver behind the spurt in growth was personal consumption, as demand continues to rise now that the country has reopened. The services sector remains strong but manufacturing continues to struggle. On a sour note, exports fell 4.2% in Q4, as demand for semiconductors and automobiles declined.
The uptick in growth means that sustainable inflation could stay above 2%, and that could prod the Bank of Japan to take steps toward normalization, such as adjusting its yield curve control (YCC) policy. The BoJ has said it would consider tightening policy if inflation is sustainable above 2%, but any shifts in policy are likely to be small, especially if the yen remains weak. The BoJ announced it would conduct a policy review which could take a year or more, and I would not expect the BoJ to raise rates before 2024.
Federal Reserve members continued to remind listeners that more rate hikes are possible if inflation stays high. The Fed has also tried to dampen expectations of rate cuts in the second half of the year. The markets are listening somewhat, as the odds of a rate cut this year have fallen. JP Morgan came out in support of rate cuts on Tuesday, saying that "the market is right to be penciling in cuts", as inflation remains too high and the US was likely headed for a recession.
USD/JPY is testing resistance at 137.08. Above, the next resistance line is 138.42
There is support at 136.26 and 135.08
XAUUSD Potential Forecast | 17th May 2023Fundamental Backdrop
US Retail Sales comes out at 0.4% compared to previous print of -0.7%, highlighting the continued resilience of the US economy. This further supports the hawkish stance from Fed and is bearish for GOLD.
Technical Confluences
Liquidity building at 1970 where price can potentially tap into
H4 support level at 1960 which can serve as a potential target zone
Idea
With the DXY expected the strengthen in the short term, we are anticipating XAUUSD to continue its bearish momentum to test the support at 1960.
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER
The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas.
We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades.
Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks.
OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
XAUUSD Potential Forecast | 15th May 2023Fundamental Backdrop
In light of the strong bullish sentiments surrounding the USD recently, price has made a bearish case for GOLD.
Sentiments surrounding USD continues to be bullish with Fed maintaining its hawkish stance in the most recent FOMC meeting.
Technical Confluences
Daily support level at 1959.7 where price can potentially tap into before continuing bullish.
Idea
With the DXY expected the strengthen in the short term, GOLD is anticipated to continue its bearish stance in the market and we will be looking out for shorts over the new week.
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER
The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas.
We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades.
Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks.
OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
EURUSD Potential Forecast | 15th May 2023Fundamental Backdrop
ECB hiked rates by 25bps most recently.
Fed continues to see heightened inflation and maintains its uncompromising hawkish stance.
Empire State Manufacturing Index release later on with market pricing in a negative print.
Technical Confluences
Daily support level at 1.0755 where price can potentially tap into.
Price has broken past the daily resistance at 1.0961.
Idea
With the DXY expected the strengthen in the short term, EURUSD can potentially continue bearish to the support at 1.0755
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER
The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas.
We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades.
Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks.
OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
DXY Weekly Forecast | 15th May 2023Fundamental Backdrop
Core Retail Sales m/m expected to improve from -0.8% to 0.5%
Consumer spending will increase significantly, indicating improved economic activity
Unemployment Claims data could be better than expected due to positive CPI and PPI data released last week
Friday could be more volatile due to Fed Chair Powell's speech
Powell expected to address rising market concern about US debt ceiling
Technical Confluences
Near term resistance at 102.800
Next resistance at 103.500
Idea
With the DXY expected the strengthen in the short term, we could see price head towards the 103.500 level.
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER
The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas.
We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades.
Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks.
OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
GOLD → Funadametal factors can bring the price downGold closes this week in the red zone with -0.27%. The metal is in a retracement or technical pullback phase, the target of which could be the support of the 1981 range.
Since we have a strong uptrend, we prioritize the scenario to buy gold.
The price forms a sideways range of 2048 - 1981. A false break-down of the resistance sets the price down to the area of 2000, and the next target is 1981.
The moving averages are showing an active bullish trend.
Levels, increasing panic in the market: 2010, 2000: 1981. In these areas an increase in volatility and a surge in volumes is possible.
This week we are expecting rather strong news, which can ambiguously influence the price:
16.05
Core Retail Sales measures the change in the total value of sales at the U.S. retail level, excluding automobiles - analysts expect the index to strengthen.
Retail Sales measures the change in the total value of sales at the retail level. - Analysts expect the index to strengthen
17.05
Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of goods and services from the consumer's perspective-analysts expect the index to strengthen.
18.05
Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of people who applied for unemployment insurance for the first time last week - analysts expect the index to strengthen
The Philadelphia Fed's Manufacturing Activity Index measures the relative level of overall business conditions in Philadelphia - analysts expect the index to strengthen
19.05
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell (Feb. 2018-Feb. 2026) to deliver speech - analysts are beginning to refrain from their forecasts, but continue to expect a rate hike.
European Central Bank President's Speech.
Basically, if expectations hold true, the dollar could strengthen quite a bit, meanwhile gold will show the opposite trend. It is very likely that the price could test the 1981 and even 1950 area. But! The fundamental analysis showed many times that the published data can be very different from what was expected.
Strong support: 2010, 2000, 1981.
Strong resistance: 2025, 2032, 2048.
I think the gold will continue the correction to 2000 and then to 1981 this week. But as long as the bullish trend persists, I will expect gold to continue to show a bullish direction over the medium and long term
Regards R. Linda!
KRE Is a reversal underway?KRE the regional bank ETF is down about 50 % YTD, with a couple of bank failures leading the
way. The question that arises is whether there is more downside. Faith and trust in the
the banking system is at risk. The big banks came in their rescue on First Republic. A run on
the little banks can hurt the big banks even Goldman Sacks. Holding treasuries with fixed
rates lower than current rate sucks for sure. The fed will clean up this mess and will
do it right and has started that process. KRE chart with the fisher transform indicator
and the zero-lag MACD tells me that KRE is now " reverting to the mean" & dropped below
the Fibonacci bands of the basis EMA. Line crossovers on the indicators are confirmatory.
I will seize the situation and add to my long position. Due you agree that this is picking low
laying fruit?
DOW divergence? Does this RSI divergence signal what's to come. I believe there is a catalyst coming that will cause the dow to plunge as will other indices. As of now im not sure what that is. something will blow up whether its banks ect. The fed will have no choice but to do an emergency rate cut. IF the rate cut happens. that's the time to go short. go look at every previous crash it only happens once fed cuts.
USD/JPY shrugs after Japanese wages, household spending falterUSD/JPY is almost unchanged today, trading at 135.18.
Japan's households are again holding tightly to the purse strings, as household spending fell 1.9% y/y in March, following a 1.6% gain in February. The consensus estimate stood at 0.4%. Household spending has been in a slump, with only one gain in the past five readings.
There was no relief from wage data, as real wages declined in March for a twelfth straight month, at -2.9%. Nominal pay growth rose 0.8% y/y in March, but this fell well short of the CPI rate of 3.8% used to calculate real wages. In March, large companies negotiated substantial wage hikes, but so far this has not translated into higher wage growth, which could prod new Governor Ueda to normalize policy.
Investors are hoping for some insights into Ueda's plans, with the release of the BoJ Summary of Opinions on Wednesday. The summary covers the BoJ's April meeting, the first to be chaired by Ueda. At the meeting, the BoJ removed guidance on rate levels and said it would conduct a review of its policies.
The Federal Reserve has warned that the turmoil in the banking sector has led to tighter credit conditions which could slow down growth in the US economy. These concerns were highlighted in the Fed's bi-annual financial stability report. The Fed's quarterly Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey echoed these worries, with bank officials saying that they would tighten lending requirements and expressing concerns about a recession and deposit withdrawals.
The financial stability report tried to put on a positive spin, stating, that "a large majority of banks" were able to handle the strain from higher rates and that US banks were "well capitalised". Still, the Fed will have to keep in mind the danger of contagion and give thought to cutting rates later in the year in order to minimize the chances of a recession.
USD/JPY is putting pressure on resistance at 135.37. Above, the next resistance line is 137.24
There is support at 134.50 and 132.97
🟨 RECESSION? - TIGHTER CREDIT CONDITIONSFED CHAIRMAN POWELL'S STATEMENT 🎙️
Chairman Powell remains flexible regarding future rate hikes, emphasizing that decisions will be taken on a meeting-by-meeting basis. Notably, the removal of the word "anticipates" indicates a decrease in urgency for additional rate increases. Furthermore, the absence of the phrase "sufficiently restrictive" suggests that current policy has reached the desired level.
LENDING AND CREDIT CONDITIONS 💳
The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring lending and credit conditions as tighter credit may replace some of the rate hikes that could have been necessary. The current approach can be described as a "hope and pray" policy, where the Fed relies on falling inflation and tighter credit conditions to achieve a sufficiently restrictive stance, while hoping no other issues arise.
POTENTIAL RECESSION ON THE HORIZON? 📉
Tighter credit conditions might lead to a recession. However, it is essential to determine how much of this possibility has already been factored into the market.
EURUSD Potential Forecast | 8th May 2023Fundamental Backdrop
Overall, EURUSD continues to be a bullish case on the larger timeframe. There are good reasons to believe in a bull case due to the interest rate differential between EUR and USD.
Technical Confluences
1. Price is currently hovering around the previous swing high and bullish momentum has reduced to consolidation in price. Support marked out at 1.0755 where price could potentially retrace to.
2. On the daily timeframe of EURUSD, bullish pressure is waning and a deep retracement on EURUSD could be due soon.
Idea
Price can continue bullish to tap into the weekly high at 1.10922
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER
The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas.
We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades.
Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks.
OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
Fantom Gets momentum As the as the weekend arrives and all of news is out, most important of them non farm payroll that shows the job market is more resilienct than the consensus before and it would temper the end of future hike rates, Bitcoin and Etherium as market leaders in the cryptocurrency market are in uotrend but at this moment Fantom was stopped and I think it's natural because of the nature of this currency that starts moving fast and furious somehow.
We will have two days I mean Saturday and Sunday that the stock market is closed, to decide which direction the cryptocurrency market will go, at this moment Etherium has gone up around 3% in 24 hours and we expect this currency to top around $2,000 by a similar calculation we can expect that Fantom gets around 0.46 until the end of Sunday that markets will be opened.
USD/CAD extends slide ahead of job reportsThe Canadian dollar continues to rally today and has climbed 120 points since Tuesday. Earlier in the day, USD/CAD touched a low of 1.3490, its lowest level since April 21st.
The markets will be treated to key employment numbers on both sides of the border later today. Canada is expected to have added 20,000 new jobs in April, following 34,700 in March. This would be the lowest reading in four months and would be a clear sign that the labour market is weakening as interest rate hikes make their effect felt on the economy.
In the US, nonfarm payrolls for April could move the dial on the US dollar ahead of the weekend. The markets are braced for a drop to 179,000, following 236,000 in March. There is a growing feeling that the labour market, which is been surprisingly resilient to relentless rate hikes, is showing cracks. Unemployment claims jumped to 242,000, up from a downwardly revised 229,000 and above the consensus of 240,000. Business optimism remains weak and that could translate into less hiring. If nonfarm payrolls fall to 180,000 or less, I would expect to see the US dollar lose ground, on expectations that the Fed may ease policy.
The Fed's rate hike of 25 basis points this week may have been the end of the current rate-hike cycle, in which the Fed has raised rates 10 consecutive times. Fed Chair Powell hinted that the Fed could pause rates as soon as June, although he reminded his listeners that the battle against inflation was far from over and didn't close the door on further hikes. The markets are betting on a pause in June, with a probability of 99%, according to the CME Group.
Powell said that given the inflation outlook, rate cuts were not on the table. The markets don't buy it and have priced in a rate cut at around 50% in July and a whopping 88% in September, according to the CME Group.
USD/CAD tested support at 1.3492 earlier. Next, there is support at 1.3435
1.3580 and 1.3637 are the next resistance lines
EURUSD before NFPYesterday, the ECB expectedly raised interest rates by 0,25% and caused volatility in EURUSD.
Today is third day with important news.
With this news we expect the direction to be confirmed and to see more clear entry grounds.
The more likely direction for now, remains 1,1090 and upon a breakout to confirm the uptrend.
Drop below 1,0985 will mean that there is no strength for the upward movement to continue and we will look for lower values.
SPY S&P 500 ETF Prediction Ahead of FED Rate Hike Decision ! This week's Federal Reserve meeting is highly anticipated, and I`m predicting that the market will go down following the announcement. The primary reason for this prediction is the expectation that the Fed will keep interest rates high for longer, with no rate cuts predicted for this year.
Based on fixed income futures, there is a 70% chance that the Fed will hike rates by 0.25-percentage-points, while only a 30% chance that they will hold rates steady. My prediction is that the Fed will indeed raise interest rates, which could lead to a market downturn as higher interest rates tend to slow down economic growth.
If the Fed's decision leads to higher interest rates that remain in place for an extended period, it could result in lower spending and investment by consumers and businesses, which could further exacerbate the market downturn. Therefore, many investors are closely monitoring any signals regarding future rate hikes or cuts and preparing for a potential dip in the market following the announcement.
According to the technical analysis chart, the SPY appears to be forming a bearish head and shoulders pattern, indicating a potential trend reversal from bullish to bearish. This pattern typically consists of three peaks, with the first and third peaks being of similar size and the middle peak being the highest.
Based on this pattern, my estimated price target for the SPY is 390.
Based on my analysis, I would buy the following PUTS ahead of Fed's decision:
2023-7-21 expiration date
390usd strike price
$5.05 premium
I am interested to hear your thoughts on this strategy.
USDCHF Long Setup On USDCHF, we have a price that has returned to the 0.883 area after almost 2 years. I have highlighted a demand zone within which the market has created an additional support zone that could be the entry point for a long trade that I partially set up. Risk-reward ratio is 1:12.
Be aware that the ECB press conference will take place in less than an hour.
Let me know what you think.
Good trading to all.
Forex48 Trading Academy