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XAUUSD - gold waiting for the Federal Reserve meeting!Gold is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe. In case of an upward correction by the FOMC today, we can see a supply zone and sell within that zone with a suitable risk reward. Donald Trump’s victory in the Tuesday presidential election could alter the economic outlook of the United States and influence the Federal Reserve’s policies in the coming months. Concerns about how much pressure Trump might exert on the U.S. central bank in his second term have resurfaced. In his campaign, Trump has pledged to impose stricter tariffs on America’s trading partners, deport millions of unauthorized immigrants, and extend the tax cuts approved in 2017. If these policies are implemented, they could exert upward pressure on prices, wages, and budget deficits, creating significant challenges for the Federal Reserve. Under these circumstances, the Federal Reserve will face increased obstacles in achieving its 2% inflation target while maintaining employment levels. Furthermore, if Trump continues his pattern of public criticism of Jerome Powell, the Fed chair, the U.S. central bank may find itself under political scrutiny. The Federal Reserve officials have decided to lower interest rates by 25 basis points today, following a half-point reduction in September. The September forecasts indicate another quarter-point cut for December and a full one-percentage-point cut planned for 2025. Following the rate announcement, Powell is likely to address questions in a press conference about the impact of the election on Fed policies. During Trump’s first term, he faced repeated criticism from him, and recently, Trump has criticized Powell for delays in policy decisions.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Ali_PSND
XAGUSD - Silver Vs FOMC?!Silver is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its medium-term bullish channel. If the decline continues due to the FOMC today, we can see demand zone and buy within that range with a suitable risk reward. If the upward trend continues, silver can be sold within the specified supply zone. World Bank analysts believe that silver is a precious metal worth monitoring in 2025. The World Bank has recently updated its commodity market forecasts. While gold is expected to maintain its strong performance within the broader market, analysts have forecasted weaker demand extending from next year through 2026. The analysts noted, “Demand for gold from central banks and the jewelry sector, which together constitute about two-thirds of global demand, is likely to decrease due to unprecedented high prices.” Nevertheless, the World Bank sees greater potential in silver, given expectations that rising demand and limited supply will help support prices. World Bank analysts further stated, “Silver demand is anticipated to increase steadily in the forecast horizon, driven by its dual financial and industrial uses.” With supply growth lagging behind the positive factors supporting demand, silver prices are projected to increase by 7% in 2025 and by 3% in 2026, following an expected 20% increase in 2024. Many analysts expect silver to outperform gold by 2025, as it is currently priced well below its intrinsic value. Nomura believes that a second Trump administration would focus heavily on tariff and tax policies, potentially leading to inflationary pressures and slower economic growth. Nomura forecasts that the Federal Reserve will respond prudently to these changes. The Federal Reserve is expected to implement two rate cuts this year, followed by a single cut in 2025, and then take a prolonged pause on further cuts.
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by Ali_PSND
NZDUSD -DXY will continue its upward trend?!The NZDUSD currency pair is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe. In case of a downward correction, we can see the demand zone and buy within that zone with a suitable risk reward. Crossing the specified resistance range of this currency pair will provide the path for its ascent to higher price targets. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has stated that geopolitical tensions are considered a risk to financial stability. Concerns about these tensions have recently grown, and the potential impacts of these risks cannot be ignored. The RBNZ has also pointed out that the economic policies of former U.S. President Donald Trump would lead to increased inflationary pressures. Hawksby, an RBNZ official, noted that central banks have the capacity to manage the global ramifications of these policies. Orr, the head of the RBNZ, mentioned that the world may have reached a peak in global trade, and Trump’s return to the White House could pose additional challenges for central banks. Trump has discussed imposing global tariffs of 10-20%, higher tariffs with China, reductions in corporate and personal taxes, and the lifting of bureaucratic regulations. George Saravelos, a senior analyst at Deutsche Bank, has identified two key points regarding this situation: caution in making fundamental market changes and the way Trump’s and the Republicans’ policies are priced in. Saravelos believes these changes are not solely political but are also linked to the structure of financial markets. He notes that high-risk global assets are tracking the upward trend in U.S. equities, which has resulted in high-risk commodity currencies performing better. However, he stresses that this trend should not be easily projected into the future, and potential shifts in correlations should not be overlooked. According to him, the U.S. election results are historic and could lead to structural changes in the markets, potentially breaking previous correlations. This implies that the U.S. market could continue to grow, while other global markets may experience negative performance. Saravelos also observes that markets are currently evaluating a relatively balanced set of policies, which differ from the election promises, particularly regarding budget deficits and tariffs. He believes that if Trump’s plans are implemented, there is a possibility of further increases in the valuation of the dollar and other financial instruments.
Long
by Ali_PSND
1
XAUUSD - Will Trump cause gold to fall?If gold reaches the bottom of the descending channel, which is also in response to the demand zone, we can look for gold buying positions. Donald Trump won in Wisconsin and got 10 electoral votes, and Trump's total electoral votes reached 277 electoral votes. In this way, Donald Trump became the 47th president of the United States. The rise in long-term interest rates and the broad sell-off across the Treasury yield curve reflect public expectations for an inflationary mix of domestic (fiscal and immigration) and foreign (tariffs) policies from Trump. Also, we see movements in short-term US dollar swap rates related to the hawkish revision of Fed interest rate expectations. In line with forecasts and public expectation, markets still expect the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.75% tomorrow.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Ali_PSND
USDCAD - Trump gave a new trend to the dollar!The USDCAD currency pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its medium-term bullish channel. If the upward movement continues, we can see the supply zone and sell within that range with the appropriate risk reward. The correction of this currency pair towards the demand zones will provide us with the next buying positions. Following the announcement of Donald Trump’s election victory, the U.S. dollar has risen against almost every currency globally. Markets are not only preparing for Trump’s presidential win but also foresee a Republican-controlled Congress, which is crucial for the incoming president’s ability to implement policy changes through the U.S. government. Ahead of the October 23 monetary policy meeting, officials at the Bank of Canada believed that inflationary pressures were on a downward trend and further tightening of monetary policy was unnecessary. They considered a 0.25% rate cut, though strong consensus emerged for holding off based on economic data observed since July. Officials noted that a rate cut would require time to sufficiently impact per capita consumer spending and counterbalance the overall consumption decline driven by slower population growth. They agreed to continue normalizing their balance sheet through maturing bonds. According to informed sources, OPEC+ has reached a preliminary agreement to postpone an increase in oil production for December. This agreement includes countries such as Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman, which have decided to extend their voluntary oil production adjustments until the end of December 2024. One key factor weakening the Canadian dollar is the country’s economic challenges. The Canadian housing market is facing serious difficulties due to rising interest rates, and the decline in demand for new home purchases has dimmed future prospects for the market. Additionally, slower population growth, largely dependent on government immigration policies, is negatively impacting the economy. Nonetheless, some hope that China’s economic stimulus efforts and rising natural commodity prices might support the Canadian dollar, though these factors carry their own risks. BlackRock has stated that expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut are overly optimistic. The bank cited the following reasons: U.S. third-quarter GDP data show that consumers remain the main driver of economic growth. The average monthly job creation over the past three months has been 104,000 jobs, a healthy rate, which is likely to rise considering hiring pauses due to storm disruptions.
Long
by Ali_PSND
NZD/USD rises ahead of jobs data, US electionThe New Zealand dollar is higher on Monday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5991, up 0.49% on the day. The New Zealand dollar is coming off a miserable October, plunging 5.9%. New Zealand releases the third quarter employment report on Wednesday. The markets are braced for soft numbers that point to a deterioration in the labor market. Employment change is expected to decline by 0.4% after a 0.4% gain in the second quarter. As well, the unemployment rate is expected to jump to 5%, from 4.6% in the second quarter. The New Zealand dollar is vulnerable to a weak employment report. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be keeping a close eye on the job release. A weak employment report will support for the case for a rate cut at the Nov. 27 meeting. Last month, the central bank made an aggressive cut of 50 basis points, lowering the cash rate to 4.75%. What can we expect at the next meeting? Inflation has been moving lower and eased to 2.2% y/y in the third quarter. This was down sharply from 3.3% in Q2 and more importantly, was back within the RBNZ’s target band of 1%-3%. The decline in inflation has raised expectations of further aggressive cuts and the most likely scenario is another 50-bp cut. Still, the RBNZ has demonstrated in the past that it can be very aggressive and a 75-bp cut cannot be ruled out. The US election on Tuesday is too close to call and the political uncertainty could translate in volatility in the financial markets. With the votes in some swing states expected to be very close, we can expect recounts and even court challenges, which means that the election outcome won’t be determined for days or even weeks, which could leave investors uneasy. The election will be followed by the Federal Reserve rate decision on Thursday, with the markets pricing in a 25-bp cut at close to 100%. NZD/USD tested resistance at 0.6014 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 0.6028 There is support at 0.5988 and 0.5974
by OANDA
1
USDJPY - Yen will continue to strengthen?!The USDJPY currency pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its medium-term bullish channel. In case of correction due to the release of today's economic data, we can see the demand zone and buy in those two zones with the appropriate risk reward. Yesterday, the Bank of Japan kept its interest rate unchanged at 0.25%, as expected. The Japanese government maintained its overall economic assessment for October, continuing to believe that the economy is recovering at a moderate pace. However, it downgraded its outlook on production, indicating that output might be facing challenges and may struggle to grow significantly. Meanwhile, Japan’s Economy Minister, Akazawa, stated that currency movements are being closely monitored, and proposed policies from other parties will be reviewed. He also noted that a weaker yen could lead to a decrease in income and private consumption, particularly if wage growth is insufficient. According to a recent Reuters survey of economists, 103 out of 111 economists expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 0.25% in November and December of this year, bringing the rate to a range of 4.25% to 4.5%. Additionally, 74 out of 96 surveyed economists predict that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate will drop to 3% to 3.25% or higher by the end of 2025. A recent report from CIBC suggests that a 3% growth in U.S. GDP is unlikely to overheat the economy. CIBC believes that the U.S. economy can sustain growth at this rate while continuing its rate-cutting cycle. The report shows that U.S. economic growth has reached 2.8%, slightly below analysts’ 3% expectation. Nonetheless, the details reflect a robust economic performance, with domestic consumption offsetting the negative effects of net trade. CIBC analysts argue that 3% growth should be seen as a new measure of economic capacity rather than a sign of overheating. They point to improvements in productivity and cooling labor markets and inflation, asserting that
Long
by Ali_PSND
USDJPY: Will the NFP Halt the Dollar?The USD/JPY moves between sustained bullish momentum and possible technical corrections: the Bank of Japan’s decision to keep rates unchanged temporarily strengthened the Yen, pushing the pair below 153, but post-election political uncertainty limits any lasting appreciation of the Japanese currency. Conversely, the US dollar continues to benefit from a favorable economic backdrop, bolstered by a strong labor market and the potential for a gradual Fed approach in the future. Imminent economic data, such as consumer confidence and JOLTS job openings, could confirm the US recovery, further boosting Treasury yields and the dollar. From a technical perspective, the trend remains bullish, with key resistance levels at 153.90 and 155.10, while a correction toward supports at 151.95 and 149.50 might indicate a pause or reversal of the trend.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
XAUUSD: Ready for a Correction After NFP?Analyzing XAU/USD's movement, the price recently hit a fresh all-time high around $2,790 but then experienced a slight pullback to $2,780. Despite this minor drop, the underlying trend remains strongly bullish, driven by the weakness of the US dollar due to mixed macroeconomic data limiting its demand. From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows a clear bullish setup, suggesting the potential for further highs until a significant correction occurs. After a brief corrective dip, technical indicators have resumed their ascent into overbought territory, signaling that buyers are ready to capitalize on minor price dips. The price could break the psychological threshold of $2,800 before the US presidential elections, with the potential to discover new highs beyond the recent record of $2,789.72. In October, the private sector added 233K new jobs, surpassing expectations and temporarily strengthening the dollar. However, Q3 GDP growth at 2.8% fell short of forecasts, adding downward pressure on the dollar. The quarterly Core PCE Price Index was 2.2%, down from the previous quarter’s 2.8% but above the 2.1% expectation. Despite this decline, inflation remains within the Fed’s tolerance range, reducing the likelihood of an impact on the central bank’s policy decisions.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
USD/JPY eyes Bank of Japan meetingThe Japanese yen continues to have a quiet week. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 153.25, at the time of writing, down 0.07% on the day. The Bank of Japan concludes its two-day meeting on Thursday and is widely expected to maintain policy settings, including its benchmark rate at 0.25%. The shock result from Sunday’s general election, which saw the ruling Liberal Democratic Party lose its majority, will means weeks of political uncertainty. The yen weakened to a three-month low after the election but that won’t be enough to prod the BoJ to raise interest rates on Thursday. The BoJ has said in the past that it would not make any rate moves during times of uncertainty, and between the political crisis in Japan and the tight election campaign in the US, it’s a sure bet that policymakers will wait before adjusting rates. The markets will be keeping a close eye on the BoJ’s quarterly inflation and growth reports, which will be released at the meeting. The BoJ has said that it will hike rates if the economy and prices move in line with these projections, so these projections could provide clues about the BoJ’s future rate path. Governor Ueda holds a press conference after the meeting, and a reference to the falling yen could signal plans for a rate hike or intervention in the currency markets in the near term. In the US, first-estimate GDP in the third quarter rose 2.8% y/y, down from 3.0% in Q2 and below the estimate of 3.0%. This points to a strong economy which has been boosted by robust consumer spending. The Federal Reserve meets on Nov. 7 and the markets have widely priced in a 25-basis point cut. USD/JPY is testing support at 153.33. The next support line is 152.80 153.92 and 154.45 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
XAUUSD - Areas with high potentialGold and silver still have room to grow, according to Max Layton, head of research at Commodity City. Leighton says the best bull markets for gold and silver usually occur when the US and European markets are weakening and China looks poised to grow. Investors have flocked to gold this year as geopolitical factors, a changing economic landscape and persistent inflation concerns have fueled fears of volatility in other assets. When there is too much euphoria, we must be careful of price correction!
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
GBP/USD: Will NFP Make the Dollar Drop?GBP/USD weakens around 1.3010 during the European session on Wednesday, staying within a descending channel since September, as the market awaits key economic data, including the UK Autumn Budget, October’s ADP Employment Change, and US Q3 GDP. A close above 1.2975 could attract buyers, pushing the price toward 1.3050, while support remains at 1.2895. The pound remains vulnerable to potential negative economic surprises or restrictive fiscal measures announced in the Budget, as indicated by Prime Minister Starmer, which could increase volatility. Positive US economic data, especially on employment and growth, could strengthen the dollar and further push GBP/USD lower. I am currently long on GBP/USD from last week, aiming for a 1:4 RR. Currently, I'm at a 1:2 RR with SL at BE, so risk-free. Have a great day and happy trading, everyone!
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
XAUUSD (GOLD) Reaching 3000$ this yearDear Traders, Here's how gold could potentially reach $3000 (or rather, $3,000) by year-end if more rate cuts occur: Lower Rates Mean Lower Yield on Alternatives: When central banks cut interest rates, bond yields often decrease, making non-yielding assets like gold more appealing as a store of value. Investors may shift toward gold, driving up demand and prices. Weaker Dollar Effect: Rate cuts can lead to a weaker U.S. dollar. Since gold is priced in dollars, a weaker dollar often makes it cheaper for international investors, increasing demand and potentially boosting its price. Economic Uncertainty and Inflation Hedge: With lower rates, there's a risk of rising inflation, as cheaper borrowing often fuels spending. Gold is seen as a traditional hedge against inflation, so as inflation expectations rise, investors may buy more gold to preserve their wealth. Safe-Haven Demand: Rate cuts sometimes signal an economic slowdown or recession risks. In uncertain economic times, investors turn to safe-haven assets like gold, potentially pushing prices higher. If the Fed moves toward significant rate cuts, each of these factors could align, creating strong demand for gold and possibly driving it closer to $3,000. Greetings, Zila
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ZILATRADES
1
EUR/USD: Pullback Before the Big Drop?The EUR/USD exchange rate remains stable around 1.0790 during early Asian trading on Monday, yet it faces potential downside pressure due to rising expectations of a less dovish stance from the Federal Reserve. Recent encouraging economic data from the United States has fueled these expectations, suggesting the Fed may adopt a more stringent policy in November, which could strengthen the dollar. From a technical perspective, EUR/USD has broken out of its descending regression channel, stabilizing above the upper line. On the downside, support levels are seen at 1.0800 and 1.0750. Last Thursday, EUR/USD displayed some resilience, benefiting from improved market sentiment and a dip in U.S. Treasury yields, leading to a temporary softening of the dollar. However, the pair remains at a crossroads, awaiting fresh cues from the economic calendar, such as U.S. durable goods orders data, which is expected to show a 1% decline. A stronger-than-expected figure could boost the dollar, while a more significant drop might weaken it, though the effect on EUR/USD could be short-lived. The neutral stance in U.S. index futures partly reflects broader uncertainty, leaving open the possibility that shifts in risk sentiment could impact the dollar; a continuation of risk flows favoring safer assets might keep the USD under pressure. Good trading day!
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
USD/JPY: US Elections and Middle East War!USD/JPY fell towards 152.00 after reaching a 12-week high near 153.20, due to a temporary correction in the US Dollar (USD), which saw the Dollar Index (DXY) dip to 104.20. Despite this, the Dollar's outlook remains bullish, supported by positive economic data such as the October US services PMI, which exceeded expectations with an expansion to 55.3. Political uncertainty and the upcoming US presidential elections further enhance the Dollar's appeal as a safe-haven currency. In Japan, the cautious statements from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda, who indicated a gradual approach to assessing inflation, suggest that further rate hikes are unlikely in the near term. This divergence in monetary policies between the US and Japan continues to support a bullish trend for USD/JPY, with the current correction seen as temporary.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
USOIL Ready for $75!WTI oil prices have climbed back to $71.60 per barrel, supported by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly due to the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. The possibility of disruptions in oil supplies from the region fuels market uncertainty. However, the significant increase in US crude oil inventories, far exceeding expectations, is putting downward pressure on prices, indicating a potential oversupply. Additionally, the strengthening US dollar, which has reached its highest level since July, is reducing oil demand by making it more expensive for foreign buyers. These factors limit the potential for price increases, despite geopolitical concerns.
TVC:USOILLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
XAU/USD: Ready for a Pullback!The price of gold (XAU/USD) has recently retreated from an all-time high of around $2,560 and is currently trading slightly below $2,720, complicated by the strength of the US dollar and rising US Treasury yields. Technically, the $2,750 level has shown signs of rejection, making it a key resistance, while immediate support is located at $2,725, near the lower boundary of a two-week ascending channel. A convincing break below this support could trigger technical selling, pushing the price down toward $2,700 and subsequently to $2,680-2,675, where the 100-period simple moving average resides. Despite overbought conditions and pressure from the dollar, political uncertainty and the risk of escalating tensions in the Middle East continue to support demand for gold as a safe haven. That said, gold seems poised for a correction toward $2,675, and we will see in the coming days if it gives us a signal for a short entry. Good evening and happy trading to everyone.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Gold Approaches Key Resistance at 2,731: Bullish or Pullback?GOLD The price is approaching a key resistance area at 2,731. If the price breaks and closes above this resistance, the next target is 2,753, indicating a bullish continuation. However, failure to break through may lead to a pullback towards the support correction zone around 2,710–2,697. Further decline could extend to the support zone near 2,685. The current trend is bullish, but a rejection at the 2,731 level could trigger a correction before any further upward movement. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 2731 Resistance Levels: 2753, 2765, 2775 Support Levels: 2720, 2710, 2697 Trend Outlook: Bearish: By stability Below 2731 Bullish: Above 2732 Previous idea:
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SroshMayi