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XAUUSD (Gold): Feel confident selling nowBeen watching Gold for days, trying to work things out. I think we'll see another push up from DXY following FOMC hawkishness last night, it's dancing around the 50% Fib retracement from the last move, this would be positive for gold. With gold, I think we just got a local double top, but generally struggling at current levels, after failing to make a new high, AUD export data not great, also linked to gold. I'm expecting an initial fall down to around 1937 (then could move further back to 1910 / 1900), but does need monitoring closely, as has been super volatile and overall direction still unclear to me atm from here. I think a DXY push will see me hit this initial TP and then let's see what happens from there... I'll wait for NY session to give me more clues
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Finchcliffe
12
🔥 Bitcoin FOMC Bullish Reaction: Wait For ConfirmationThe FOMC meeting has just concluded, and the FED has raised the interest rates with 25 basis points. Since the initial reaction is bullish, I'd like to explore the idea that we're going to see a strong switch in trend from this point onwards. The dotted diagonal resistance is currently the main area that BTC has to break through. Be patience for the break out before considering a bullish entry. Target at the July highs, stop just below the resistance line.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by FieryTrading
11
AUD Bucks Trend after Fed Hikes Rates to 22-Year High The Federal Reserve has decided to increase interest rates by 25 basis points, reaching a range of 5.25% to 5.50%, marking the highest level seen in 22 years. Market participants widely anticipated this move as the Fed resumed its tightening campaign. In their statement, the Fed expressed a positive outlook on economic growth, acknowledging that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace, which is a subtle improvement from the previous characterization of "modest" growth. The focus on consumer prices remained, with the Fed emphasizing that inflation continues to be elevated, and policymakers will closely monitor the risks it poses, mirroring their assessment from the previous month. Following the announcement of the Fed's decision, the U.S. dollar retreated across the board. This movement in the dollar contributed to a boost in gold prices and an immediate focus is now on the $1,973 minor resistance and $1,978 further above. An exception to the general trend is the Australian dollar, which bucked the trend after data revealed that domestic inflation slowed more than expected in the second quarter. This decrease in inflation reduced pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia to implement further policy tightening measures. The data showed that Australia's consumer price index rose by 6%, a deceleration from the 7% recorded in the first quarter and below the market's expectations of 6.2%. Consequently, the Australian dollar weakened to approximately $0.676.
by BlackBull_Markets
EUR/USD quiet ahead of Fed decisionThe euro is showing limited movement for a second consecutive day. In Wednesday's European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1063, up 0.07%. The Federal Reserve meets later today, and it's close to a certainty that the Fed will raise rates by 0.25%, which would bring the Fed Funds rate to a range of 5.25% to 5.50%. The FOMC will not be releasing any economic forecasts, which means investors will have to comb the rate statement and Jerome Powell's follow-up press conference for clues about future rate policy. The money markets remain confident that today's rate hike will be the last in the current tightening cycle, which is a more dovish stance than what we've been hearing from Powell & Co. The Fed has reiterated that although inflation is heading in the right direction, it remains too high and more work needs to be done to bring inflation back to the 2% target. Powell does not want the markets to become complacent about inflation, and for this reason, he is unlikely to close the door on future rate hikes, even if he hints at a pause after today's expected increase. We can expect Powell to stick to the well-worn mantra of basing future rate decisions on economic data, in particular inflation and the strength of the labour market. The ECB will announce its rate decision on Thursday, and like the Fed later today, it's a virtual certainty that the ECB will raise rates by 0.25%. What happens after that? The minutes of the June meeting, released earlier this month, signalled that a September hike is a strong possibility. Members noted that "monetary policy had still more ground to cover" and "the Governing Council could consider increasing interest rates beyond July, if necessary." ECB policy makers will make their rate determinations based on economic data, but that doesn't mean the decision will be clear-cut. The eurozone economy is struggling, which would support a pause. At the same time, inflation dropped to 5.5% in June, which is almost triple the ECB's target of 2%. Inflation remains the ECB's number one priority, which could mean another rate hike in September unless there is a sharp drop in inflation or a serious deterioration in economic growth. EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.1063. The next resistance line is 1.1170 There is support at 1.1002 and 1.0895
by OANDA
Aussie slips as inflation falls, Fed expected to hikeThe Australian dollar is in negative territory on Wednesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6758, down 0.49%. The Aussie fell as much as 0.90% earlier in the day but has recovered some of these losses. Australian inflation declined more than expected in the second quarter, sending the Australian dollar lower as pressure has eased on the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise interest rates. Headline inflation rose 6% y/y in the second quarter, down from 7% in the first quarter and below the consensus estimate of 6.2%. June monthly inflation dipped to 5.4% y/y as expected, below the May reading of 5.5%. The RBA Trimmed Mean CPI, a key gauge of core inflation, fell to 5.9% y/y in Q2, down from 6.6% in Q1 and just below the consensus of 6.0%. The positive inflation data was spoiled somewhat by services inflation, which accelerated to 6.3% in the second quarter, its highest level since 2001. A key factor driving up services inflation was higher rents, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The RBA meets on August 1st and investors have lowered the odds of a rate hike following the positive inflation report. The probability of a rate hike has fallen to 31%, down from 41% prior to the inflation report, according to the ASX RBA rate hike tracker. The RBA will release updated economic forecasts at the meeting, and investors will be especially interested in the inflation projections. What happens after August? An extended pause is the RBA's preferred move, but that will likely require inflation to continue heading lower toward the 2% target. Otherwise, the RBA will still have work to do on the inflation front and would likely have to continue tightening rates. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise rates at Wednesday's meeting, and investors have priced a hike at close to 100%. This would bring the benchmark rate to a range of 5.25% - 5.50%. Investors expect a pause in September but the Fed has signalled another rate hike after Wednesday's meeting. The Fed's rate policy will depend to a large extent on inflation levels and the strength of the labour market. AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6767. Below, there is support at 0.6687 There is resistance at 0.6811 and 0.6891
by OANDA
Stocks, Rates and Inflation: Assessing Risks and OpportunitiesOver the last year, there have been increasing concerns about threats to the US and global economies, mainly due to all the rate hikes from the Fed and other central banks. However, these fears have definitely not played out, as consumer spending and business hiring have shown surprising durability in the US, despite rate hikes and inflation. Several factors explain the stock rebound since mid-2022: - Bearish positioning left room for a short squeeze as negative expectations didn’t play out at all. Attention has returned to quality large-cap technology firms leading in AI development like Google and Microsoft, as their innovations promise productivity gains that support growth. - Ongoing passive investing inflows, corporate buybacks, past fiscal stimulus, and excess savings, the Fed and Treasury generating shadow liquidity, China and Japan keeping rates low and stimulating, the massive deficits of the US government (investors know the US is essentially ‘broke’). - Inflation coming down is also boosting stocks, as stocks are mainly valued based on inflation, not interest rates. - The Fed might have finished its hiking cycle or might have one last hike left. Current rate expectations are indicating that rate cuts will come by early 2024. While earnings seem to be plateauing from peak levels, profitability remains healthy overall. GDP growth remains positive and revised higher, the US economy keeps adding jobs and the unemployment rate remains at record lows. Global challenges persist, as supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures from the Ukraine war might come back at any time, despite having significantly subsided. Demographic trends of aging populations in developed countries also drag on labor force expansion and economic growth. High debt loads worldwide likewise limit stimulus options without leading to inflation or instability. While inflation has moderated, it remains elevated and sensitive to many factors, from geopolitical instability to climate change. More concerning, inflation has eased without a clear link to the Fed’s policy tightening. It’s improbable that the Fed hikes were the ones that pushed inflation from 9.1% down to 3%, as rate hikes act with long and variable lags. This is raising doubts about the Fed, it's forecasting, and its monetary policy’s effectiveness in controlling inflation over the long term, especially as their current super-tight interest rate policy could lead to catastrophic deflation and recession. Given rising recession risks, the Fed will likely be forced to reverse course and start cutting rates by the end of 2024. This policy whiplash carries risks of its own, as we currently seem to be heading toward a deflationary shock, which might be followed by another inflationary wave. With massive deficits, the Fed also faces constraints from high-interest costs on debt even as its policies try to restrain growth and inflation. The economy isn't a simple dial the Fed can turn on and off. What’s even more concerning, is that the Fed is essentially trying to suppress wage gains and cause unemployment to curb inflation, which is something that could induce an inequality-worsening spiral. In our opinion, a more balanced approach recognizes that moderate wage growth won’t spur runaway inflation, especially as technology evolves work. The policy should prepare workers for automation and AI through training programs, not just reactively responding to lagging data as it is currently doing. The Fed’s constraints highlight the need for creative solutions to complement monetary policy. The economy is a multifaceted system requiring diverse policy responses. With vision and flexibility, emerging technologies like AI have immense potential to broadly uplift living standards. But this requires inclusive policies and acknowledging the economy's dynamism. The future likely holds turbulence, but with strategic foresight productivity gains can be harnessed for the benefit of all. Despite concerns over rising rates, the fundamental backdrop remains favorable for stocks. Many investors have grown excessively bearish and underestimate the market's upside potential. Sentiment and positioning remain bearish and cautious, with most investors underestimating all the positive headwinds for stocks, especially productivity gains from AI, falling inflation, falling rates, and currency debasement. Crucially, the rally since mid-2022 has not been fueled by leverage, unlike past bubbles. Margin debt levels decreased last year, reducing systemic risk. The market has a strong foundation to build on gains, especially as most unprofitable tech has been clobbered and hasn’t recovered, unlike US tech behemoths. Big tech and AI stocks are leading the way higher, forming a new monopoly built on network effects and immense scale. Their nearly unassailable competitive advantages will drive growth for years to come. Although in the short-term sentiment has turned bullish, hence a 10% correction is possible, we don’t think that a new bear market is in the cards until stocks make new all-time highs. In conclusion, while risks remain, the US economy has proven resilient amid rate hikes and inflation. Productivity gains from AI innovations, coupled with prudent and flexible policymaking, can support continued growth and market gains if properly harnessed. Investors should look through short-term volatility and maintain a constructive long-term outlook.
TVC:DXY
by BitcoinMacro
US500 - Time for consolidation?Hi Traders, we have a busy week ahead. We have 3 central bank interest rate decisions and a few other fundamentals coming up. Week 30/2023 Monday: Purchasing managers' indices DE🇩🇪 , UK 🇬🇧and USA 🇺🇸 Tuesday: ifo business climate index🇩🇪, CB consumer confidence🇺🇸 Wednesday: FED interest rate decision🇺🇸 Thursday: ECB interest rate decision 🇪🇺 Friday: BOJ interest rate decision🇯🇵, CPI DE🇩🇪, PCE core rate 🇺🇸 Some Infos about the Central Banks FED🇺🇸: The Fed is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points to between 5.25% and 5.50% at its July meeting, with traders looking for clues as to whether this will be the central bank's last rate hike of the cycle or whether it will deliver another rate hike at a future meeting that is in line with its own forecasts. ECB🇪🇺: Again, a 25 basis point rate hike is a foregone conclusion. However, the wording will be crucial here. Because currently, a further increase in September is priced in by around 50% of market participants. The other 50% do not expect any further increase. Depending on which way the wording goes, there is definitely a lot of upside or downside potential for the euro. BOJ🇯🇵: The Bank of Japan's interest rate and monetary policy is still expected to remain loose. This could be very exciting, especially after the last correction against the USD. So we can expect at least on Thing... Volatility! From Technical point of view a consolidation in the stock market would not be a surprise. If the SP500 moves back to first Support Level this would be a possible zone for new long entry. But we should wait for the FED and their outlook. Wish you a great Trading week! Team tegasFX
CAPITALCOM:US500
by tegasFX
GOLD (XAUUSD): Your Plan For FED RATE DECISION 🥇 Next week, on Wednesday, we are expecting FED Interest Rate Decision. Here are potential scenarios for Gold: Bullish If the price breaks and closes above 1987 daily resistance, it will be a strong bullish signal. A bullish continuation will be expected at least to 2000 level then. Bearish If the price breaks and closes below 1960 support, it will lead to a further bearish continuation. Next goal will be 1940 Wait for a breakout, that will be your best confirmation. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by VasilyTrader
11
USD/CAD flat ahead of Canadian retail salesThe Canadian dollar is trading quietly on Friday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3171, almost unchanged. It has been a busy week in the currency markets, with the US dollar rebounding and posting strong gains against the major currencies. The notable exception has been the Canadian dollar, which has held its own against the greenback this week. We could see some movement from USD/CAD in the North American session when Canada releases retail sales for May. We'll get a snapshot of consumer spending later on Friday, as Canada releases the May retail sales report. The markets are bracing for a slowdown in May after an impressive April release. The consensus estimate for retail sales is 0.5% in May, down from 1.1% in April. The core rate is expected to fall to 0.3%, compared to 1.3%. If the estimates prove to be accurate, it would point to the economy cooling down and provide support for the Bank of Canada to take a pause at the next meeting in September. The Federal Reserve meets on July 26th and investors have priced in a 0.25% hike as a near certainty. September is less clear, but the markets have priced another hike at just 16%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Are the markets being too dovish? Fed members have said that inflation isn't falling fast enough, which could mean that another hike is coming after July. Former Fed Chair Ben Bernake appeared to side with the market view, saying on Thursday that the July hike could be the final rate increase in the current tightening cycle. Bernanke said that the economy would slow further before the 2% inflation target was reached, but he expected any recession to be mild. There is resistance at 1.3205 and 1.3318 1.3106 and 1.2993 are providing support
by OANDA
GBP/USD edges lower ahead of UK inflationThe British pound has edged lower on Tuesday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3038, down 0.27%. The UK is lagging behind other major economies in the fight to curb inflation. Will Wednesday's inflation report bring some good news? In May, CPI remained stuck at 8.7% y/y but is expected to ease to 8.2% in June. The core rate is expected to remain steady at 7.1%. On a monthly basis, headline CPI is expected to fall from 0.7% to 0.4% and the core rate is projected to slow to 0.4%, down from 0.8%. The inflation report could be a game-changer with regard to the Bank of  England's meeting on August 3rd. The BoE delivered an oversize 50-basis point hike in June and will have to decide between a modest 25-bp hike or another 50-bp increase at the August meeting. Last week's employment report pointed to wage growth picking up, which moved the dial in favour of a 50-bp increase. US retail sales for June provided a mixed spending picture. Headline retail sales rose just 0.2% m/m, below the 0.5% consensus estimate and the upwardly revised May reading of 0.5%. Core retail sales were much stronger at 0.6%, above the 0.3% consensus and the upwardly revised May release of 0.3%. The data points to resilience in consumer spending although momentum has slowed. The retail sales report did not change expectations with regard to rate policy, with the Fed expected to raise rates in July and take a pause in September. The Fed has tightened by some 500 basis points in the current rate-hike cycle and this has curbed inflation, which has fallen to 3%. Nevertheless, the Fed remains concerned that the solid US economy and a tight labour market will make it difficult to hit the 2% inflation target, and the Fed hasn't given any hints that it will wrap up its tightening in July, although the money markets appear to think this is the case. GBP/USD has support at 1.2995 and 1.2906 There is resistance at 1.3077 and 1.3116
by OANDA
1
Smart money bear trap thesis?Tags: Blackrock Bitcoin ETF, Inflation, PCE, FED, Wage-price spiral, BTC.D, ETH/BTC Could we be mimicking 1970's market? So last PCI reading came 3% but core CPI is still high and Core PCE (FED's preferred inflation measure) has been sticky in 4.5% area for past several months. Whilst inflation expectations have been tamed by FEDs continued "We remain focused on getting inflation back to 2%." This message must be maintained and a recession is inevitable. Look at 10Y3M yields and 10Y2Y bond yields. We have real pain yet to come. So headline inflation is being curved down and celebrated however the next step is the risk of a wage-price spiral which is being priced in and expected to also not become a threat once unemployment rises but the job markets are remaining resilient. Therefore, the FED will hold interest rates at 5.25-5.50 bps until inflation is confidently curbed. We have not yet seen fear in markets from recessionary risks. Everyone is thinking it will be a mild one however the future is hard to foresee and there are underlying financial risks not in the limelight yet. Now, you have the market context we shall dive into the charts!
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by Muri001
1
The end of the tightening cycle is nighThe decline in the US inflation rate to more than a two-year low, marks a major step towards the end of the Fed’s historic monetary tightening cycle1. We believe key deflationary forces are in play – (1) weaker commodity prices (2) improvement in global supply chains (3) moderation in demand (4) lower inflation expectations. Therefore, the June decline in inflation is just the start of a series of decreases. Softer than expected inflation report As highlighted in the chart below, the details for June were also better than expected with key measures of underlying inflation coming in below forecasts. The inflation report suggests that some of the stickier components of inflation such as used cars and airline fares are also moderating. It’s important to note that most of the rise in the June CPI can be attributed to housing, however because of the way it is calculated it tends to lag current conditions. The S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index which tends to lead CPI shelter by roughly a year, is already flat which highlights US inflation is likely headed lower. Inflation for labour intensive services such as restaurants, recreation and personal care remained higher in June reflecting the pass -through of higher wages and robust services demand2. Potential further softening in the labour market could bring these categories back to target consistent levels. Softening in the labour market was evident in June’s employment report (nonfarm payrolls rose by 209k versus consensus 230k) which was weaker than expected for the first time in 15 months3. US Producer Prices confirmed a similar deflationary theme. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation for June was softer than expected with headline and core PPI advancing 0.1% over the prior month4. Business surveys are also pointing to weakening pricing power, such as the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) services index which ties in with a lower inflation backdrop. US inflation can’t prevent the July rate hike While expectations for the July rate hike of 25Bps remain firmly in place, the market has scaled back expectations for a second hike – with 21bps / 3bps / 3bps of hikes priced for the July / September / November FOMC meetings5. The disinflation trend increases our belief that the Fed is close to, or will be, at the end of the current rate hike cycle. Earnings take centre stage for the next leg of the rally The key question now remains whether the market continues to trade off expectations of an easing narrative. Central bank policy has been the biggest drag for equities last year. The timing of the easing narrative comes at the heels of a volatile Q2 2023 earnings season. The S&P 500 Index earnings in the Q2 2023 are expected to decline 6.8% y/y, worse than the decline of 3.9% in the Q1 20233. This would be the largest earnings decline since the pandemic-fuelled 31.6% y/y decline in the Q2 2020. Earnings will be the key deciding factor for an extension in the current rally. Investors will be keen to hear from management whether they are looking to adopt a leaner cost structure and ways they are looking to remove excess capacity. Investors will be looking for guidance on productivity and efficiency gains rather than the financial engineering we have witnessed over the past decade. This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
FRED:DFF
by aneekaguptaWTE
1
The Powell meme bomb & pivotThe fed and Powell have tried everything to dismiss inflation . First ignoring it then saying transitory then changing the perimeters as to how it's calculated. Even Sleepy Joe then chimed in at one point by saying hotdogs are actually cheaper for your red white and blue lies. How about awards... Let's give Ben Bernanke the noble economics prize during this all of this insanity! How about an Oscar to a president? (Sean Penn to Zelensky) yeah why not?? Giving Bernanke an award like "Noble Economics" is like calling Dahmer chef of the year! What the heck is going on? People are so broke they can't even pay attention! Has reality become the twilight zone? or was it always? Who are these people that rule us? Can they really be this incompetent? If so why is there no accountability? Now to Powell and gang. Last year they were caught for insider trading, what was their punishment? They were forced to sell their stock, at record gains mind you. Really... that's a punishment now? No one even batted an eye. The west has become a bunch of zombie filled degenerate nations with it's citizens consuming filth at record pace even Usain Bolt would be envious of. For this charade to keep going, you need to print more zombie snacks (dollars) there is no other way. I do believe the market is pricing in an inevitable Fed pivot at the moment which could turn out to be a sell the news moment next year at some point (not Financial advice). Psychological warfare. The Psy-op being played has been ramped up to new levels the past couple years and it is being reflected in the market due to technology with access to investing now easier than ever with a device sitting in your pocket, just add a little emotion with degenerative news and voila. The Pivot will eventually come, but will be the long term effects of it? Anyone can assume but simple 101 Noble Bernanke economics will tell you it ain't good. Anyway, this is my rant for the day. Actually, I have a question. What effect do SEC (crypto) rulings have past American borders? Here is my opinion, (crypto specifically) They have no jurisdiction past American borders so the effect is limited if any. In my opinion these negative rulings will only stifle any American innovation and growth of the sector. It actually just opens doors for other countries to take advantage of it as crypto is global. Please give me your thoughts on this down bellow. Special Guest Appearance George Carlin Thanks WeAreSat0shi Stay Blessed!
TVC:DXYEducation
by WeAreSat0shi
2
Dollar Weakens After FED AnnouncementsAs of now, the FED interest rate decision has been announced and the FED has kept the interest rate constant. In addition to keeping it steady, Powell still made harsh and hawkish statements. Personally, I have question marks in my mind about how full these explanations are. Because now the job is not just to reduce inflation and most business sectors have started to break. I don't think it can go on like this. If we are talking about interest rates, the only factor we need to look at is the dollar index. The dollar index has technically formed a descending triangle. The level to be seen in a down break will be $ 98.
TVC:DXY
by YavuzAkbay
2
AUD/USD remains red hot and is trading at 3-week highThe Australian dollar continues to sizzle and has climbed 1.04% on Thursday, after rising 1.56% a day earlier. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6857, close to a 3-week high. Inflation remains the Reserve Bank of Australia's number one priority and Thursday's inflation expectations release vindicated the RBA's concern that inflation expectations are well anchored. The Melbourne Institute Inflation Expectations for July were unchanged at 5.2% and a notch higher than the consensus estimate of 5.1%. High inflation expectations can translate into inflation rising, which would force the RBA to continue raising interest rates. RBA Governor Lowe spoke on Wednesday. The speech dealt with RBA policy but any investors looking for insights into rate policy walked away disappointed. Lowe said that the full effects of high rates were yet to be felt and it remained to be seen if more hikes would be required. US inflation dropped lower than the estimate and that sent the US dollar broadly lower on Wednesday. Headline inflation fell from 4.0% y/y to 3.0%, and critically, the core rate dropped to 4.8%, down from 5.3%. Both readings were lower than the forecast and point to inflation continuing to move in the right direction. The inflation numbers were good, but likely not good enough to convince the Fed to pause at the July 27th meeting. The Fed is widely expected to raise rates at the July meeting but the positive inflation data has also raised the likelihood of a pause at the September meeting. There is a possibility that the Fed's rate-tightening cycle is finally over, but that will depend on economic data, particularly employment and inflation reports in the coming months. AUD/USD put pressure on resistance at 0.6878 earlier. This is followed by resistance at 0.6944 0.6772 and 0.6682 are providing support
by OANDA